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Player Spotlight: Lee Evans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Lee Evans Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Lee is a very very talented WR. He's definitely the Bill's best offensive weapon. He had a stellar 2006 season, but 2007 definitely didn't live up to expectations.

Hopefully, getting to participate in mini camps and and training camp with Edwards will help the two establish a rapport with each other. I'll predict his numbers to be better than last season, but still not as good as 2006.

70 rec 1050 yds 6-7 TDs

Last season most likely left a bad taste in many peoples mouths. You may very well be able to get him as a WR 3.

 
I love the guy, but as long as Edwards is chuckin the ball, I don't put much stock in Evans.

Edwards : 72/1115/6

 
There's very few WRs as talented as Lee Evans, however, with Edwards learning the position and Losman most likely not playing, he won't reach his potential this year.

I think Edwards improves enough to help Evans improve on 2007. Unfortunately, I don't think he'll reach his 2006 level until Edwards improves more.

A very inconsistent 4 / 60 / .4 per game; 64 / 960 / 6

 
Deep-threat at WR + noodle-armed qb who isn't even that good = poor fantasy option.

For Evans' sake I just hope that 6"6 James Hardy doesn't become Trent Edwards favorite target.

 
55

875

6

Evans has eclipsed these stats once in four years. Edwards only threw a touchdown in less than a third of his games in 2007. Evans had many poor games and only a handful of good games. He will disappoint once again.

 
558756Evans has eclipsed these stats once in four years. Edwards only threw a touchdown in less than a third of his games in 2007. Evans had many poor games and only a handful of good games. He will disappoint once again.
There's more to his numbers than meets the eye.2004 - 48-843-9 pretty darn good for a rookie WR2005 - This is an interesting year. There is a QB battle going on in Buffalo between Holcomb and Lossman. When Holcomb was playing, Eric Moulds was his favorite receiver and he got the big numbers. When Lossman was playing, Lee Evans was his favorite receiver and Evans got the numbers. There was no middle ground here. Holcomb threw to Moulds, Lossman threw to Evans.48-743-72006 - Moulds is out of town along with Harbaugh. Lossman is the QB alongside his favorite WR Lee Evans. Lee Evans blows up.82-1292-82007 - Lossman stinks up the joint and doesn't/can't get the ball to Evans. In comes the rookie QB Edwards. Evans' problems this season are much more QB related IMO.55-849-52008 - Will Edwards know to get the ball to his best playmaker? Will he be able to get him the ball?*edit* fixed a glaring inaccuracy
 
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evans is talented but in a terrible situation. i kept him over braylon edwards in my keeper last year and I'm pretty sure its gonna haunt me for the next decade or so.

 
Evans still needs a good #2 to take away the constant double teams. Young QB, average to below average team, not a whole lot to like about the situation or see a reason for a big turnaround.

75-1050-6

 
Talent wise, he's elite. Quarterback wise, he's terrible. James Hardy is going to give opposing defenses something else to think about in the passing game, and God knows defenses will be focused on Lynch.

The Bills ranked 29th in passing last season, so they can only go up. Evans is too much of a play maker to be held down. The team has to look to get him the ball if they want to be successful. As a rookie, Edwards was bound to struggle, coming into his 2nd year, with time to learn the offense, he should improve considerably, meaning alot easier time for Evans.

77 receptions

1195 yards

9 tds

 
Talent wise, he's elite. Quarterback wise, he's terrible. James Hardy is going to give opposing defenses something else to think about in the passing game, and God knows defenses will be focused on Lynch.

The Bills ranked 29th in passing last season, so they can only go up. Evans is too much of a play maker to be held down. The team has to look to get him the ball if they want to be successful. As a rookie, Edwards was bound to struggle, coming into his 2nd year, with time to learn the offense, he should improve considerably, meaning alot easier time for Evans.

77 receptions

1195 yards

9 tds
wow, I couldn't believe when I looked back at the Bill passing stats the last few years...in '03 they were 28th, in '04 they were 27th, in '05 they were 29th, in '06 they were 28th and in '07 they were 30th....I'm sure the same thing has been said about their passing game (that they should improve) the past few years but looking at the situation they still don't have a pass catching TE, still don't have a WR2 and the QB is unproven which are many of the problems that have plagued the team over that period...If nothing else they've been consistent...
 
wow, I couldn't believe when I looked back at the Bill passing stats the last few years...in '03 they were 28th, in '04 they were 27th, in '05 they were 29th, in '06 they were 28th and in '07 they were 30th....I'm sure the same thing has been said about their passing game (that they should improve) the past few years but looking at the situation they still don't have a pass catching TE, still don't have a WR2 and the QB is unproven which are many of the problems that have plagued the team over that period...If nothing else they've been consistent...
While it may take Hardy some time to develop, he is a major upgrade from Parrish/Reed from Day 1.
 
I love the guy, but as long as Edwards is chuckin the ball, I don't put much stock in Evans.Edwards : 72/1115/6
I'm pretty sure you meant Evans. And if so, :thumbup: You don't put much stock in a guy that by your own projections would have ranked him as the #15 or so wr in 2007?If he was costing people a top draft pick I'd be wary but after last year I'm pretty sure he'll fall a ways down people's draftboards.
 
One thing that I noticed in a quick review of Lee Evans' game logs is that he is a notoriously slow starter. That is not a good recipe for success in Buffalo, where it becomes much more difficult to throw the ball when the bitter winter weather kicks in. Add in the lack of arm strength in Edwards and it just doesn't add up for Evans to have a superb year. I'll give him just about the same as last year. Edwards may improve just a little, but the rookie WR Hardy takes away some red zone opportunities.

Lee Evans 110 targets 55 receptions 850 yards and 4 TDs

 
The task for any team is to get the ball into the hands of their play-makers. Edwards has shown that he can manage a game well and excels in the short game. He did this in college because he was playing behind a poor O-Line and needed to get the ball out quick. He needs to gain confidence in his down field reads.

The task for the O.C. is to build off the strengths of his best players. If they can work Evans into the shorter passing game that could open up the long game for him as well. There needs to be a balance. This will help both players and push Evans up towards (don't read this as into) the upper echelon of receivers.

75 receptions 975 yds 7 td's

5 rushes 45 yds

 
I love the guy, but as long as Edwards is chuckin the ball, I don't put much stock in Evans.Edwards : 72/1115/6
I'm pretty sure you meant Evans. And if so, :goodposting: You don't put much stock in a guy that by your own projections would have ranked him as the #15 or so wr in 2007?If he was costing people a top draft pick I'd be wary but after last year I'm pretty sure he'll fall a ways down people's draftboards.
fair point, but let me clarify. I truly believe Evans can be an elite fantasy WR (top5). That´s what I don´t put stock in. As long as Edwards is the QB, I just don´t see that happening. will the changing of the guard at play calling be the difference? Will Edwards look to find Evans more often? I´d have to see it first.
 
Two words: contract year.78 rec.1,345 yds. 7 TDs
I see all the time using CONTRACT YEAR as an argument to inflate statistics. From anything that I've seen, this is an urban myth and there is no basis that players perform better in contract years. Better stated, players had the same distribution of doing better, worse, or the same in contract years (at least from the info that I have ever seen).
 
brednbuddah said:
I love the guy, but as long as Edwards is chuckin the ball, I don't put much stock in Evans.Edwards : 72/1115/6
I'm pretty sure you meant Evans. And if so, <_< You don't put much stock in a guy that by your own projections would have ranked him as the #15 or so wr in 2007?If he was costing people a top draft pick I'd be wary but after last year I'm pretty sure he'll fall a ways down people's draftboards.
fair point, but let me clarify. I truly believe Evans can be an elite fantasy WR (top5). That´s what I don´t put stock in. As long as Edwards is the QB, I just don´t see that happening. will the changing of the guard at play calling be the difference? Will Edwards look to find Evans more often? I´d have to see it first.
Gotcha. I completely agree with you. :hifive:
 
David Yudkin said:
Two words: contract year.78 rec.1,345 yds. 7 TDs
I see all the time using CONTRACT YEAR as an argument to inflate statistics. From anything that I've seen, this is an urban myth and there is no basis that players perform better in contract years. Better stated, players had the same distribution of doing better, worse, or the same in contract years (at least from the info that I have ever seen).
Sounds like a future article? :goodposting:
 
David Yudkin said:
Two words: contract year.78 rec.1,345 yds. 7 TDs
I see all the time using CONTRACT YEAR as an argument to inflate statistics. From anything that I've seen, this is an urban myth and there is no basis that players perform better in contract years. Better stated, players had the same distribution of doing better, worse, or the same in contract years (at least from the info that I have ever seen).
Sounds like a future article? :thumbup:
IIRC there have been threads discussing that very thing and Yudkin is correct - the "contract year" is just a myth. Players don't fare any better/worse because they're about to become a free agent.
 
OK then, two more words: Turk Schonert. New offensive Coordinator. No one can be as conservative as Steve Fairchild was last year.

 
:kicksrock: Admittedly, a disgruntled 2007 Evans owner, but I truly believe this is an honest, objective assessment:

Granted, the sample is small with Edwards, but Evans numbers suffered with Edwards in the game compared to Losman (and this is NOT an effort to advocate for Losman). Losman threw to Evans a higher percentage of the time (29% vs 24%) for a much higher completion percentage (54% vs 46%) compared to Edwards. Yes, there is a new OC, but he has never called plays at any level, so there is no reason to expect a new approach this season compared to last (although one can certainly hope), a conservative, run first philosophy even when trailing. Some blame this on Fairchild...but, until proven otherwise, I choose to blame the offensive philosophy on Jauron, and last I read, he was still the HC.

Evans has tier 1 talent, but tier 3 opportunity. If his ADP were to fall to WR25-30, I would consider grabbing him again...but there are better "sure-thing" options than Evans at WR19-20 (PIT WRs, CJ, Driver).

62-811-5

 
Two words: contract year.78 rec.1,345 yds. 7 TDs
I see all the time using CONTRACT YEAR as an argument to inflate statistics. From anything that I've seen, this is an urban myth and there is no basis that players perform better in contract years. Better stated, players had the same distribution of doing better, worse, or the same in contract years (at least from the info that I have ever seen).
I agree with you. It seems though, when I do see a player post better stats or play more motivated in a contract year, it is on the Defensive side of the ball.
 
2005 - This is an interesting year. There is a QB battle going on in Buffalo between Harbaugh and Lossman.
wtf?Tough call on Evans. Both he and QB unpredictable plus new OC = who knows. Kind of like deciding whether to draft a DEN RB or not and if so, when.

 
The new play calling will help the passing game, but doesn't play to the strength of Evans (short throws). Edwards doesn't need a rocket arm like Losman but will need to be efficient which he will be.

Evans will blow up some games and disappear in others depending on the talent of the defense. Not much middle ground. Hardy/Lynch get the majority of the TDs unless Evans breaks a long one.

74

1115

6

 
BigRed said:
2005 - This is an interesting year. There is a QB battle going on in Buffalo between Harbaugh and Lossman.
wtf?Tough call on Evans. Both he and QB unpredictable plus new OC = who knows. Kind of like deciding whether to draft a DEN RB or not and if so, when.
you're absolutely right. It was Holcomb, not Harbaugh, my bad.
 
Lee Evans has only 1 season that was real quality in terms of fantasy football and last year he was a bust for many. He ended up with a couple nice games later in the season but that was after so many eggs that many owners probably didn't even start him unless they had bye week issues or were already out of their league anyway. Evans has potential to be very good but to me, drafting Evans too high is a mistake as he's only earned 1 season where he caught 60 balls or more and never has he caught 10 td's in a season. Very risky pick.

59 receptions for 900 yards and 7 td's

 
The new play calling will help the passing game, but doesn't play to the strength of Evans (short throws). Edwards doesn't need a rocket arm like Losman but will need to be efficient which he will be.

Evans will blow up some games and disappear in others depending on the talent of the defense. Not much middle ground. Hardy/Lynch get the majority of the TDs unless Evans breaks a long one.

74

1115

6
dead on.I agree with these numbers completely. don't expect fantasy consistency on a weekly basis.

 
As an Evans owner what I am hoping to see, and is reasonable to expect, is an increase in consistency. That doesn't mean we will see him putting up top ten numbers every week. Evans knows what he can do and has the NFL experience to set up defenders and read defenses. The obvious key to him becoming the fantasy stud many people thought he would become after a very strong 2006 is quarterback play. The development of Trent Edwards is the critical. If the Bills have to flip flop between Edwards and Losman again the only hope for Evans maximizing his talent may be free agency.

 

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