Player Spotlight: David Garrard (1 Viewer)

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: David Garrard Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

He is most definitely a talented QB and he got some upgrades at WR. Yes, I'm one of those who believe that Porter has the talent to break out if in the right situation. Troy Williamson? If he could catch the ball he would be something special, we'll see what happens this year.

I see a lot of people wanting to reach for top QBs this year. NOOOOOOOO!!!! This is a very good year for getting later value at QB. Don't reach for Brees, Romo, Palmer, and Big Ben. Think Cutler, Garrard, Bulger, Schaub, and Rivers.

The only minus against Garrard is that Jacksonville is just so good at running the ball. They just don't need to rely so heavily on his arm. However, if/when Jacksonville needs him to air it out, Garrard can answer the call.

3300 yds 24TD/12 int

270 rushing yards 2 TDs

a_troll00 said:

He is most definitely a talented QB and he got some upgrades at WR. Yes, I'm one of those who believe that Porter has the talent to break out if in the right situation. Troy Williamson? If he could catch the ball he would be something special, we'll see what happens this year.

I see a lot of people wanting to reach for top QBs this year. NOOOOOOOO!!!! This is a very good year for getting later value at QB. Don't reach for Brees, Romo, Palmer, and Big Ben. Think Cutler, Garrard, Bulger, Schaub, and Rivers.

The only minus against Garrard is that Jacksonville is just so good at running the ball. They just don't need to rely so heavily on his arm. However, if/when Jacksonville needs him to air it out, Garrard can answer the call.

3300 yds 24TD/12 int

270 rushing yards 2 TDs

Click to expand...

Saying that Brees, Romo are "reaches" is a bit out there if you ask me. Look at the numbers. Now, if you want to get some value, you might find it in middle rounds but i think the high picks are well spent on very good, proven QBs like Brees, Romo and even Palmer.

gregjcross said:

a_troll00 said:

He is most definitely a talented QB and he got some upgrades at WR. Yes, I'm one of those who believe that Porter has the talent to break out if in the right situation. Troy Williamson? If he could catch the ball he would be something special, we'll see what happens this year.

I see a lot of people wanting to reach for top QBs this year. NOOOOOOOO!!!! This is a very good year for getting later value at QB. Don't reach for Brees, Romo, Palmer, and Big Ben. Think Cutler, Garrard, Bulger, Schaub, and Rivers.

The only minus against Garrard is that Jacksonville is just so good at running the ball. They just don't need to rely so heavily on his arm. However, if/when Jacksonville needs him to air it out, Garrard can answer the call.

3300 yds 24TD/12 int

270 rushing yards 2 TDs

Click to expand...

Saying that Brees, Romo are "reaches" is a bit out there if you ask me. Look at the numbers. Now, if you want to get some value, you might find it in middle rounds but i think the high picks are well spent on very good, proven QBs like Brees, Romo and even Palmer.

Click to expand...

On average where was Tony Romo drafted last season? Where was Drew Brees drafted the season before that? Where was Carson Palmer drafted the season before that? I can tell you when they weren't drafted. In early rounds with high draft picks. When will people learn? You can always find good quarterbacks later in the draft. It's one of the easiest spots to fill in fantasy football. Most of the time it's not worth the risk to pay for some qb's career year hoping that they can repeat it which is usually the case when a player is drafted so high. I won't complain when people do it though. It just means more good backs and receivers for me.

Anyways Garrard seems as good of a qb pick up later in the draft this season as any. He can throw and he can run which is always a plus. He played well with Reggie Williams and bleh last season. If Porter and Williamson can actually play this season Garrard could put up a nice season. The Jaguars are a running team at heart however so expectations must always be tempered somewhat. So a 30 TD 4000 yard season is most probably not happening for him. A 3000 yard 20 TD with rushing stats to boot wouldn't be so bad.

The Man with the Plan said:

On average where was Tony Romo drafted last season? Where was Drew Brees drafted the season before that? Where was Carson Palmer drafted the season before that? I can tell you when they weren't drafted. In early rounds with high draft picks.

When will people learn? You can always find good quarterbacks later in the draft. It's one of the easiest spots to fill in fantasy football. Most of the time it's not worth the risk to pay for some qb's career year hoping that they can repeat it which is usually the case when a player is drafted so high. I won't complain when people do it though. It just means more good backs and receivers for me.

Anyways Garrard seems as good of a qb pick up later in the draft this season as any. He can throw and he can run which is always a plus. He played well with Reggie Williams and bleh last season. If Porter and Williamson can actually play this season Garrard could put up a nice season. The Jaguars are a running team at heart however so expectations must always be tempered somewhat. So a 30 TD 4000 yard season is most probably not happening for him. A 3000 yard 20 TD with rushing stats to boot wouldn't be so bad.

Click to expand...

Why are you lecturing us?Allow people to draft proven players higher. Drafting a proven QB that performs high is not a mistake unless he tanks. For every lower QB that succeeds there are probably 3-4 that fail.

I like Garrard but think 3000 22 TD's.

For a guy who's never thrown for more than 18 Td's in a season and is only one year removed from being an INT machine ( 2006, 10TD, 9INT), I don't get all the 'love'...

extrapolating his #'s over a full season is nice and all, but, he didn't accomplish those stats so lets not play 'what if'.

Their ultra-conservative HC Del Rio will make sure they always play close to the vest.

Garrard comes back to earth in 2008, IMO..decent QB, nothing great..

2900 yards, 17 TD, 11 INT, 59% comp..

Jags will continue to pound the ball with the running game this season, no reason at all to get away from that, if it ain't broke, don't fix it..

Garrard is a solid NFL QB, but he will never win you a FF championship. He TD/INT ratio last year was certainly one for the books, but that is because he plays on a team with a conservative offensive gameplan. It would be extremely difficult for him to come close to the TD/INT ratio he had in '07 and his team does not "air it out" enough for him to make up the FF points he will lose by throwing up more INTs in '08.

I expect 3200 yards, 19 TDs 10 INTs...this will make him a deep league starter at best, but at least a solid QB2 in leagues that are 12 teams or less.

There was a really fantastic thread started a few weeks ago by Chase:

I would rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer

Don't be daunted by the sensational thread title, there is some extremely solid analysis of Garrard (by his supporters and detractors) in that thread and is a must read for those interested in his prospects in 2008.

I would invite anyone who posted in that thread to, by all means, copy/paste or reference things from Chase's thread here if you feel you have additional color you want to layer on.

I think Garrard is one of those players that you have to have to win consistently. Obviously, you'd like to have a QB that puts up 30pts guaranteed each week in a traditional scoring system. But, last season, Garrard was the picture of consistency. He almost always hovered around 18-20 points a game and didn't throw up any stinkers except for the game he was hurt in the 1st quarter. On a weekly average basis, he was a Top 10 qb.

shoring up other positions and then grabbing Garrard later is a good bet imo. IIRC, Garrard was really working on his deep balls this off-season. If he develops there and Williamson/Porter work out, I think Garrard will definitiely have a top 10 season that borders on Top5. I don't think he'll get past the big 4, but I think he has just as good a skill set as any to be #5.

Garrard has shown that he is a legit QB. Great arm, good game management, can make plays with his arm as well as with his feet. His upside is somewhat limited in that JAX has two good RBs in Taylor and Jones-Drew, so they are a run-first team. He has shown consistency.....will put up 175-250 yds passing and 1-2 TDs most weeks. Granted, that won't carry your team, but if a team is stacked at RB & WR, Garrard would be a nice complimentary player. Garrard is a QB that I will be targeting in later rounds after all the stud QBs are gone.

3400 yds passing, 22 TDs, 10 int

225 yds rushing, 2 TD

bcr8f said:

The Man with the Plan said:

On average where was Tony Romo drafted last season? Where was Drew Brees drafted the season before that? Where was Carson Palmer drafted the season before that? I can tell you when they weren't drafted. In early rounds with high draft picks.

When will people learn? You can always find good quarterbacks later in the draft. It's one of the easiest spots to fill in fantasy football. Most of the time it's not worth the risk to pay for some qb's career year hoping that they can repeat it which is usually the case when a player is drafted so high. I won't complain when people do it though. It just means more good backs and receivers for me.

Anyways Garrard seems as good of a qb pick up later in the draft this season as any. He can throw and he can run which is always a plus. He played well with Reggie Williams and bleh last season. If Porter and Williamson can actually play this season Garrard could put up a nice season. The Jaguars are a running team at heart however so expectations must always be tempered somewhat. So a 30 TD 4000 yard season is most probably not happening for him. A 3000 yard 20 TD with rushing stats to boot wouldn't be so bad.

Click to expand...

Why are you lecturing us?Allow people to draft proven players higher. Drafting a proven QB that performs high is not a mistake unless he tanks. For every lower QB that succeeds there are probably 3-4 that fail.

I like Garrard but think 3000 22 TD's.

Click to expand...

2874 yds. 22 TD 11 Ints

53 244 1

David Garrard had a very solid season last year and he's always been "pretty good" when in relief for Jax. in the past.

However, I have a hard time ranking him inside the top 7 or 8 because he's never played more than 12 games in a season. That doesn't mean he can't but when you start handicapping players to do things they've never done before, that's where big problems can come in or big busts.

My other concern for Garrard is I wonder if he can play any better than what I saw mid season last year. I guess maybe he could if he was surrounded by better WR help which he may have this season compared to last (although to me not a serious upgrade) but I think if he's pressured on in comeback situations, he can make mistakes.

Early on to midseason, he was playing close to mistake free football. But as I watched the end of the season unfold, to me he made more mistakes when more was asked from him, unlike someone like Eli Manning. Anyway, Jax is a solid team and Garrard does have that year under his belt but I'm not going to make any bold predictions for Garrard this upcoming season.

3155 yards rushing 19 td's and 15 int's 250 yards rushing and 1 td

Jason Wood said:

There was a really fantastic thread started a few weeks ago by Chase:

I would rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer

Don't be daunted by the sensational thread title, there is some extremely solid analysis of Garrard (by his supporters and detractors) in that thread and is a must read for those interested in his prospects in 2008.

I would invite anyone who posted in that thread to, by all means, copy/paste or reference things from Chase's thread here if you feel you have additional color you want to layer on.

Click to expand...

It's not a sensational thread title, GB. Here's what I wrote, with a new link: http://footballguys.com/08stuart_rearview_qb.php

Every year, there are lots of complaints that FBG staffers engage in group think, or don't think outside the box, or don't make risky predictions. Every year, I'm usually part of the charge defending such actions, as I believe against the grain predictions are generally bad. Making a weird ranking to be different, to take a risk, to think outside the box, or to simply gain attention seems ludicrous. I believe everyone's projections and rankings should reflect how they actually feel. If I think RB10 is really RB5, and RB1 is really RB4, I shouldn't rank RB10 higher than RB1 just to do something different, because I believe RB10 is better than RB1. And I tend to think that's what people sometime want to see -- rankers taking some risks.

That being said, this year I see something that 1) is really out of place with conventional wisdom; and 2) I really believe in. I think David Garrard should be ranked ahead of Carson Palmer. I'm not alone here as Tefertiller has Garrard slightly ahead of Palmer, and Maurile has Garrard just one spot behind Palmer. According to ADP, Palmer is QB5 and Garrard is QB12. I think Palmer is really overrated, Garrard is really underrated, and Garrard is actually better than Palmer. Hence the thread.

I think Garrard is better than Palmer for three reasons. Garrard was better than Palmer last year, Garrard's prospects have improved since last year, and Palmer's prospects have decreased since last year.

Garrard was better than Palmer last year

What, you say? How in the world was Garrard better than Palmer last year? Didn't Carson Palmer outscore Garrard by over 70 points last year? Well, yeah.

But Palmer took every snap of every game in '07. Garrard actually missed a bunch of time. He missed four full games, over half the Colts game, he missed about a third of the Raiders game, and part of the Panthers game, too. The Colts one was due to injury, and the other two were due to blowouts. So while Palmer played in 16 full games, Garrard only played in about 10.9 games. If you look at Team QB rankings, Jacksonville ranked 9th with 357 FP and Cincinnati ranked 12 with 324 FP. You might think Garrard should be penalized for missing games due to injury, blowout or his team having locked up a playoff spot. I'll get to that at the end.

But for now, Garrard averaged 23.2 FP/G in his 10.9 games, and Palmer averaged 20.2 FP/G in his 16.0 games. But wait, there's more. Palmer had a slightly easier than average schedule. Garrard had a really difficult one. He played 1.3 games against the Colts, who had an excellent D against fantasy QBs last year. So did the Chargers, and Bills, and Raiders and Chiefs. He had only two easy games, one against Atlanta and one against Denver. But on average, his schedule was very tough. If you adjust Garrard's number for strength of schedule, you see he would have scored 24.7 FP/G in his 10.9 games last year, while Palmer (after SOS adjustment) would have scored) 20.0 FP/G.. In sum, all of Palmer's apparent success over Garrard last year was due to his extra games and easier schedule. You might think that Garrard will have a tough schedule again, or Palmer an easy one again; we'll get to that in the end. But it is clear that whenever the QB was playing last year, Garrard was the much more effective fantasy player.

The off-season

For Garrard, his team added Jerry Porter and Troy Williams. I'm not a fan of either, but hey, they can't hurt. Porter's better than nothing, and the Jags WRs just weren't that good last year. Cincy added Gabriel and Utecht, but the big development is Chad Johnson. Obviously, that's not a good sign for Palmer. The Bengals team in general certainly looks to be trending downward, and there are questions about whether Johnson will actually play this year. If he isn't a Bengal, I think it's obvious that Palmer isn't as good a fantasy option as Garrard. But even if he is, Cincy and Palmer haven't done anything to close the gap that Garrard had on Palmer already.

Now, I said we'd discuss whether it's fair to ignore Garrard's risk of injury and SOS. The fact that Garrard sat in some blowouts last year doesn't concern me -- predicting which QBs will be rested due to blowouts or locking up playoff berths is practically impossible (unless it's Peyton Manning). The injury question is a legitimate one, especially since Garrard has never played a full season. But Palmer's had a serious injury before, and it just happened to come in week 18. Is he less injury prone than Garrard? Maybe, maybe not. It's not easy to say. But even if he is, I don't think Garrard is anywhere near so injury prone enough to ignore his potential upside. With my QB, I'll take a small injury risk at a position where just about every QB is an injury risk, Palmer included.

What about SOS? I project Garrard and Palmer with almost identical strengths of schedule this year. Palmer has about a 2 FP advantage,, which equates to just 0.125 FP/G. And neither I nor anyone else can predict SOS to within 0.1 FP/G, so it's basically a wash.

To recap, Garrard was the MUCH better fantasy player last year when healthy and accounting for SOS. Considering that their SOS is essentially even this year, and Garrard's injury risk isn't really any scarier than Palmer, those two factors shouldn't concern you in 2008. Sure, Palmer scored a ton more FPs, but that's only because Garrard got hurt and had a hard schedule. Do you want to bank on that happening again? It's easy to see Palmer's gaudy passing numbers and be blinded, but Garrard had an incredible season in '07. Do I see him repeating his 18/3 TD/INT ratio this year? Of course not. But he's got nearly a 5 FP/G cushion on Palmer already; he can regress a bit this year and still be better than Palmer. He should see more pass attempts this year, as he hits his prime and Fred Taylor leaves his. And I don't see much to convince me that Palmer's going to be throwing two or three TDs for every INT anymore, either. This isn't the 2005 Bengals. Chris Henry and Eric Steinbach are gone. Willie Anderson is 33 and coming off an injury-plagued season; he's not a 30 year old All Pro.

Palmer is very overrated, leaving out the potential disaster involving Chad Johnson. David Garrard is very underrated. And Garrard is better than Palmer.

For the record, I don't think Jacksonville's passing offense is conservative. They don't throw a lot, but they throw deep. They ranked 4th int he league in yards per completion, behind Cleveland, Dallas and New England. That's not a conservative passing attack.

Chase Stuart said:

For the record, I don't think Jacksonville's passing offense is conservative. They don't throw a lot, but they throw deep. They ranked 4th int he league in yards per completion, behind Cleveland, Dallas and New England. That's not a conservative passing attack.

Click to expand...

The good old run & shoot!Jacksonville reminds me a lot of Pittsburgh. Great running teams, but their QBs will get theirs. The Jaguars threw for the 10th most TDs, but #17 in yardage. Without the benefit of good WRs. 225 / 1.5 / .75 per game3600 / 24 / 12200 / 1 rushing

3200/22/11 60/250/1

Tatum Bell said:

3200/22/11 60/250/1

Click to expand...

Agreed.

Jacksonville has attempted 484, 446, and 469 passes in 05, 06, and 07 for 3340, 3060. and 3495 yards. They have passed for 21, 17, and 28 TDs and threw 6, 14, and 8 interceptions. Despite not having a name QB or any name WRs, they haven't done that badly. But still they prefer to pound the running game behind their two capable starting RBs, Fred Taylor and MJ Drew. Over the same three seasons they rushing attempts by their running backs have steadily increased from 423 to 430 and up to 445 last year.

Garrard had a nice season completing 64% of his attempts for 7.7 ypa and 2509 yards, but since he only played 12 games that comes out to 209 yards oer game. His most outstanding stat line was 18 TDs and only 3 ints. I see a decrease in TDs and an increase in interceptions for 08. He is currently being drafted as the 13th QB at 90 overall. This is the key consideration for Garrard. If you like him and think that he can reproduce last year's stats for the full season, then you can take him there and get a bargain. I like Schaub, Rodgers, Campbell and others better than Garrard, so I enjoy him being ranked there as it allows me to get my bargain QBs even later.

David Garrard 260 complete out of 440 attempts 59.0% for 3,080 yards 7.0 ypa and 19 TDs with 10 ints

Jason Wood said:

There was a really fantastic thread started a few weeks ago by Chase:

I would rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer

Don't be daunted by the sensational thread title, there is some extremely solid analysis of Garrard (by his supporters and detractors) in that thread and is a must read for those interested in his prospects in 2008.

I would invite anyone who posted in that thread to, by all means, copy/paste or reference things from Chase's thread here if you feel you have additional color you want to layer on.

Click to expand...

I noticed several early flaws:
He extrapolates Garrard's games played over an entire season which is almost always a fallacy
He ignores the fact that Cincy's terrible defense actually works in Palmer's favor, whereas Jacksonvilles strong ground game and defense work against GarrardIt's an interesting viewpoint though. Much better read than the thread title suggests

sholditch said:

Jason Wood said:

There was a really fantastic thread started a few weeks ago by Chase:

I would rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer

Don't be daunted by the sensational thread title, there is some extremely solid analysis of Garrard (by his supporters and detractors) in that thread and is a must read for those interested in his prospects in 2008.

I would invite anyone who posted in that thread to, by all means, copy/paste or reference things from Chase's thread here if you feel you have additional color you want to layer on.

Click to expand...

I noticed several early flaws:
He extrapolates Garrard's games played over an entire season which is almost always a fallacy
He ignores the fact that Cincy's terrible defense actually works in Palmer's favor, whereas Jacksonvilles strong ground game and defense work against GarrardIt's an interesting viewpoint though. Much better read than the thread title suggests

Click to expand...

Quick rebuttal, although I'd like to hear Chase's view.1. the Jax QBs threw for 3495 / 28 / 8, nobody will argue that Gray is better than Garrard, so if Garrard plays a whole season, shouldn't he get roughly the same?

2. True, but that was true last year too. It also means Garrard won't have to throw, but as the defense focuses on stopping the run, Garrard has a better field to work with. It's a good reason why his INTs were so low, and why they should continue to be - although nobody should expect a repeat of last year's 3.

I'd like to see a study of offenses like JAX and Pittsburgh, my logic tells me that if a running game is strong, the passing yards may suffer, but the TDs probably won't as much. INTs should be lower as well.

FUBAR said:

sholditch said:

Jason Wood said:

There was a really fantastic thread started a few weeks ago by Chase:

I would rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer

Don't be daunted by the sensational thread title, there is some extremely solid analysis of Garrard (by his supporters and detractors) in that thread and is a must read for those interested in his prospects in 2008.

I would invite anyone who posted in that thread to, by all means, copy/paste or reference things from Chase's thread here if you feel you have additional color you want to layer on.

Click to expand...

I noticed several early flaws:
He extrapolates Garrard's games played over an entire season which is almost always a fallacy
He ignores the fact that Cincy's terrible defense actually works in Palmer's favor, whereas Jacksonvilles strong ground game and defense work against GarrardIt's an interesting viewpoint though. Much better read than the thread title suggests

Click to expand...

Quick rebuttal, although I'd like to hear Chase's view.1. the Jax QBs threw for 3495 / 28 / 8, nobody will argue that Gray is better than Garrard, so if Garrard plays a whole season, shouldn't he get roughly the same?

2. True, but that was true last year too. It also means Garrard won't have to throw, but as the defense focuses on stopping the run, Garrard has a better field to work with. It's a good reason why his INTs were so low, and why they should continue to be - although nobody should expect a repeat of last year's 3.

I'd like to see a study of offenses like JAX and Pittsburgh, my logic tells me that if a running game is strong, the passing yards may suffer, but the TDs probably won't as much. INTs should be lower as well.

Click to expand...

Those are pretty good responses. I'd simply add to them that:1) It's not extrapolating Garrard's games over an entire season, and therefore it's not "a fallacy"

2) Cincy's terrible defense doesn't work in Palmer's favor, and Jacksonville's strong defense doesn't work against Garrard; just as important, though, is the point that these were the situations last year, too.

It probably comes down to coaching philosophy more than anything else: play conservative with a lead or keep on the attack.

Teams vary so much from year to year that it's really tough to say whether we can expect basically the same from the JAX air attack or not. Goes for cincy too. That's why I don't put stock in extrapolating stats over a whole season. We don't know if Garrard would tire in a 16-game season, or go through a slump, etc. Of course you never know anything going into a season.

Since this is a projection thread I'll make mine:

3300-22-8

110-400-3

I like Garrard a lot but I don't think he has 4,000-yar potential THIS YEAR. ONly because this will really be his first year starting and I just don't think that JAX will need the air attack like Cincy will. Also, Poter and Troy Williamson as the 1 and 2? :

Chase Stuart said:

FUBAR said:

sholditch said:

Jason Wood said:

There was a really fantastic thread started a few weeks ago by Chase:

I would rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer

Don't be daunted by the sensational thread title, there is some extremely solid analysis of Garrard (by his supporters and detractors) in that thread and is a must read for those interested in his prospects in 2008.

I would invite anyone who posted in that thread to, by all means, copy/paste or reference things from Chase's thread here if you feel you have additional color you want to layer on.

Click to expand...

I noticed several early flaws:
He extrapolates Garrard's games played over an entire season which is almost always a fallacy
He ignores the fact that Cincy's terrible defense actually works in Palmer's favor, whereas Jacksonvilles strong ground game and defense work against GarrardIt's an interesting viewpoint though. Much better read than the thread title suggests

Click to expand...

Quick rebuttal, although I'd like to hear Chase's view.1. the Jax QBs threw for 3495 / 28 / 8, nobody will argue that Gray is better than Garrard, so if Garrard plays a whole season, shouldn't he get roughly the same?

2. True, but that was true last year too. It also means Garrard won't have to throw, but as the defense focuses on stopping the run, Garrard has a better field to work with. It's a good reason why his INTs were so low, and why they should continue to be - although nobody should expect a repeat of last year's 3.

I'd like to see a study of offenses like JAX and Pittsburgh, my logic tells me that if a running game is strong, the passing yards may suffer, but the TDs probably won't as much. INTs should be lower as well.

Click to expand...

Those are pretty good responses. I'd simply add to them that:1) It's not extrapolating Garrard's games over an entire season, and therefore it's not "a fallacy"

2) Cincy's terrible defense doesn't work in Palmer's favor, and Jacksonville's strong defense doesn't work against Garrard; just as important, though, is the point that these were the situations last year, too.

Click to expand...

Maybe I misspoke, or miswrote: You took the 10.9 games he played in and went by avg FP when comparing him an Palmer. Well, what if one of those 5.1 games Garrard had thrown 150-0-3? That would mess up his per game average pretty bad, no? What if he had two or three such games? All I'm saying is that the avg points based on 10.9 games in a 16 game season is not as valid when making projections for a 16-game season as a 16-game sample. Surely you don't disagree with that?

sholditch said:

Chase Stuart said:

FUBAR said:

sholditch said:

Jason Wood said:

There was a really fantastic thread started a few weeks ago by Chase:

I would rather have David Garrard than Carson Palmer

Don't be daunted by the sensational thread title, there is some extremely solid analysis of Garrard (by his supporters and detractors) in that thread and is a must read for those interested in his prospects in 2008.

I would invite anyone who posted in that thread to, by all means, copy/paste or reference things from Chase's thread here if you feel you have additional color you want to layer on.

Click to expand...

I noticed several early flaws:
He extrapolates Garrard's games played over an entire season which is almost always a fallacy
He ignores the fact that Cincy's terrible defense actually works in Palmer's favor, whereas Jacksonvilles strong ground game and defense work against GarrardIt's an interesting viewpoint though. Much better read than the thread title suggests

Click to expand...

Quick rebuttal, although I'd like to hear Chase's view.1. the Jax QBs threw for 3495 / 28 / 8, nobody will argue that Gray is better than Garrard, so if Garrard plays a whole season, shouldn't he get roughly the same?

2. True, but that was true last year too. It also means Garrard won't have to throw, but as the defense focuses on stopping the run, Garrard has a better field to work with. It's a good reason why his INTs were so low, and why they should continue to be - although nobody should expect a repeat of last year's 3.

I'd like to see a study of offenses like JAX and Pittsburgh, my logic tells me that if a running game is strong, the passing yards may suffer, but the TDs probably won't as much. INTs should be lower as well.

Click to expand...

Those are pretty good responses. I'd simply add to them that:1) It's not extrapolating Garrard's games over an entire season, and therefore it's not "a fallacy"

2) Cincy's terrible defense doesn't work in Palmer's favor, and Jacksonville's strong defense doesn't work against Garrard; just as important, though, is the point that these were the situations last year, too.

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Maybe I misspoke, or miswrote: You took the 10.9 games he played in and went by avg FP when comparing him an Palmer. Well, what if one of those 5.1 games Garrard had thrown 150-0-3? That would mess up his per game average pretty bad, no? What if he had two or three such games? All I'm saying is that the avg points based on 10.9 games in a 16 game season is not as valid when making projections for a 16-game season as a 16-game sample. Surely you don't disagree with that?

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I'm not sure what you mean by valid.I think it's more likely that Garrard would have had a 200-3-0 game than a 150-0-3 game in one of those 5.1 games he missed.

But I used adjFP/adjG, which is not the same as extrapolating to 16 games. It's similar, of course, but it's no the same thing.

Seeing as how we have to project Garrard for a 16 game season (well we don't have to, but ignoring injury), what baseline would you use? His adjusted fantasy points per adjusted game last year seems like the most preferable statistic to me. We might have more confidence in Palmer's projection because he's got 16 games to base his projection on, but that doesn't change our actual projection. The projection for '08 would remain the same, but our confidence level would have to change.

Valid as in reliable predictor. Palmer's per game is more reliable than Garrard's. With Palmer you have facts, what he did each game. With Garrard, as you pointed out, we don't. Therefore Garrard's per game point value is a less reliable indicator of his 08 projected game value than Palmer's. That's all I'm saying. I don't want to restart the thread.

sholditch said:

Valid as in reliable predictor. Palmer's per game is more reliable than Garrard's. With Palmer you have facts, what he did each game. With Garrard, as you pointed out, we don't. Therefore Garrard's per game point value is a less reliable indicator of his 08 projected game value than Palmer's. That's all I'm saying. I don't want to restart the thread.

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I don't think many will disagree with you on this. We are fairly confident that Palmer will produce 220-260 ypg, more TDs than INTs (although we can't be confident in the ratio), y/a in the mid 7's, more than 500 attempts, and he'll complete 62-68% of them. He's done this for over 50 games now. With Garrard, we can't be sure of much. We can see that he played well last year and it appears Jacksonville improved their WRs (although if that pans out is anyone's guess). However, from what I saw last year, I think Garrard can be one of the better QBs in the league.

Simply put, you're right, a lot of our projections on Garrard will be based on opinion, whereas we can fall back more on fact with other QBs. That's the kind of QB that tends to have a wide range of value. With Garrard not being a "sexy" rookie or 2nd year player, and not being on a "sexy" team, I think he'll be great value in most leagues. FWIW, I was thrilled to get him as QB13 back in March (PDSL2) - which is exactly where is ADP currently has him.

FUBAR said:

sholditch said:

Valid as in reliable predictor. Palmer's per game is more reliable than Garrard's. With Palmer you have facts, what he did each game. With Garrard, as you pointed out, we don't. Therefore Garrard's per game point value is a less reliable indicator of his 08 projected game value than Palmer's. That's all I'm saying. I don't want to restart the thread.

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I don't think many will disagree with you on this. We are fairly confident that Palmer will produce 220-260 ypg, more TDs than INTs (although we can't be confident in the ratio), y/a in the mid 7's, more than 500 attempts, and he'll complete 62-68% of them. He's done this for over 50 games now. With Garrard, we can't be sure of much. We can see that he played well last year and it appears Jacksonville improved their WRs (although if that pans out is anyone's guess). However, from what I saw last year, I think Garrard can be one of the better QBs in the league.

Simply put, you're right, a lot of our projections on Garrard will be based on opinion, whereas we can fall back more on fact with other QBs. That's the kind of QB that tends to have a wide range of value. With Garrard not being a "sexy" rookie or 2nd year player, and not being on a "sexy" team, I think he'll be great value in most leagues. FWIW, I was thrilled to get him as QB13 back in March (PDSL2) - which is exactly where is ADP currently has him.

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agree 100%. He is probably the best value QB this year.

sholditch said:

FUBAR said:

sholditch said:

Valid as in reliable predictor. Palmer's per game is more reliable than Garrard's. With Palmer you have facts, what he did each game. With Garrard, as you pointed out, we don't. Therefore Garrard's per game point value is a less reliable indicator of his 08 projected game value than Palmer's. That's all I'm saying. I don't want to restart the thread.

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I don't think many will disagree with you on this. We are fairly confident that Palmer will produce 220-260 ypg, more TDs than INTs (although we can't be confident in the ratio), y/a in the mid 7's, more than 500 attempts, and he'll complete 62-68% of them. He's done this for over 50 games now. With Garrard, we can't be sure of much. We can see that he played well last year and it appears Jacksonville improved their WRs (although if that pans out is anyone's guess). However, from what I saw last year, I think Garrard can be one of the better QBs in the league.

Simply put, you're right, a lot of our projections on Garrard will be based on opinion, whereas we can fall back more on fact with other QBs. That's the kind of QB that tends to have a wide range of value. With Garrard not being a "sexy" rookie or 2nd year player, and not being on a "sexy" team, I think he'll be great value in most leagues. FWIW, I was thrilled to get him as QB13 back in March (PDSL2) - which is exactly where is ADP currently has him.

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agree 100%. He is probably the best value QB this year.

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Look up value in the dictionary and Garrard's picture will be there.

His ridiculous effeciency has made Garrard a solid fantasy option. In 22 regular season starts the past 2 years, he's thrown a whopping 12 INTs...Most Qbs break that in 16 games. They added Porter which should really do wonders, seeing as he had complete crap to throw to last year. Still, with two very good running backs, and a great defense to back him, I don't see Jacksonville passing alot, and I don't see him averaging a touchdown and a half per.

294/401

3047 Yards

18 Tds

7 Ints

55 Rushes

242 Rsh Yds

2 Touchdowns

Jon_Moore said:

In 22 regular season starts the past 2 years, he's thrown a whopping 12 tds...Most Qbs break that in 16 games.

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moderated said:

Jon_Moore said:

In 22 regular season starts the past 2 years, he's thrown a whopping 12 tds...Most Qbs break that in 16 games.

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TypoIt was sposed to be INT'sFixedThanks for pointing it out though

Passing Yards 3,096

Passing TDs 25

Ints 5

Rush Yards 190

Rush TDs 5

Chase Stuart said:

For the record, I don't think Jacksonville's passing offense is conservative. They don't throw a lot, but they throw deep. They ranked 4th int he league in yards per completion, behind Cleveland, Dallas and New England. That's not a conservative passing attack.

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I'm not sure I agree with the first part (although I can't argue with the results). From the games I saw, I remember a lot of short dump off/sideline/underneath passes that for whatever reason turned into big plays (missed tackles, blown coverage, a good fake, etc.). I don't remember too may actual deep routes, just a lot of short stuff that ended up as long plays.Now, whether that should be scored as "conservative" or not is another thing . . .

Jax definitely tried to throw bombs to stretch the field almost every game last year. Just one or two a game, but they were more than willing to have Garrard launch it.

sholditch said:

I noticed several early flaws:

He ignores the fact that Cincy's terrible defense actually works in Palmer's favor, whereas Jacksonvilles strong ground game and defense work against GarrardIt's an interesting viewpoint though. Much better read than the thread title suggests

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just like it did last year right?