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Player Spotlight: Selvin Young (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Selvin Young, RB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Selvin Young Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I'm sure there will be plenty of anti-Shanahan/Denver running game comments in this thread, but I'm drinking the Selvin kool-aid if he really has bulked up over the offseason like reports have suggested.

320 carries, 1,345 yds, 10 TD's

 
I'm not buying into the S. Young soft-parade..not because I don't think he's capable of handling the job, its just that Shanahan is nuts, who knows what he'll do , week-2-week..

I would bet against S. Young being the top dog in Denver...in fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see Denver sign someone like KJ or make a trade for a RB..In Denver, rarely does the opening day starting RB in finish the season as the teams leading rusher.

Young:

150/600/3

 
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Interesting, following the last two posts. I feel as if he is somewhere in the middle - 295/1250/8. I say that if healthy, this is the minimum he can put up. 2000 yards? No way. But 1400/12 is not out of the question if this guy gets the bulk and stays healthy. Big ifs.

 
Honestly who the hell knows anymore? Shanahan did cut Travis Henry so maybe he has more faith in Selvin Young but I just don't know. I don't see how I can rely on any Denver back as anything more than a back-up. The risk is just too great and the reward isn't what it used to be.

 
Id be happy to take this guy as a RB2. Not much risk IMO as Denver's other RBs are lackluster. My projections right now are fairly conservative IMO:

256 att, 1176 yds, 9 td, 24 rec, 192 yds, 0 td

 
I'm not one for making projections, so i wont. I've got this guy for free as my rookie keeper, so i'm pretty happy with that. we can start up to 4 RB's, so I'm gonna pencil him in as my RB3 and build my team based on that assumption.

He looked good last year in spots and there isnt much other talent on the depth chart. The denver o-line is rebuilding a bit though.

If i was offered 1200 yards, a respectable amount of receptions and 7 TD's i'd sign up for that right now. Anything else is gravy.

 
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His current ADP is right about the 6th round, which seems to be a great value too me.. Especially in PPR leagues

Rushing: 240/1290/8

Receiving: 45/402/2

 
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His current ADP is right about the 6th round, which seems to be a great value too me.. Especially in PPR leagues

Rushing: 240/1290/8

Receiving: 45/402/2
I expect that to go up much closer to week 1. I think his ADP settles into about the 3rd round.
I do believe he will settle in the lower rounds, but any were 4th or higher he present some very decent value.. And there seems to be some negative sentiment towards the Shenanigans.. So maybe this will keep is ADP at a decent value.
 
Honestly, it's way too early to project what will happen with Selvin. I would guess it's going to be RBBC in Denver this year, with whoever ends up being #1 putting up RB2 fantasy numbers. We won't know that for sure until late in preseason, at best. If Selvin gets the #1 job, I would pencil him in for 1000/8 and would draft accordingly.

 
Not much risk IMO as Denver's other RBs are lackluster.
I think this guy hit the nail on the head. Selvin Young proved himself last season as a solid RB. He showed good speed, elusiveness, vision, and hands. I'm not sure he can carry a full load, but he should get the majority of the carries for the Broncos. Right now I have him at:224-986-4 40-260-0
 
The Broncos haven't had a RB rank in the top 25 either of the past two years.
injuries will do that. as a team they have ranked 8th and 9th in rushing the past two years.
True, but their team RBs ranked 22nd in FPs last year, and the team RBs ranked 18th in FP in 2006. The problem is, they haven't run for many TDs the past two years.
I've learned the past couple of years to stay away from the denver running game. Whoever is listed #1 on the depth chart in june is rarely #1 in october. I'll let someone else deal with this aggravation.
 
The Broncos haven't had a RB rank in the top 25 either of the past two years.
injuries will do that. as a team they have ranked 8th and 9th in rushing the past two years.
True, but their team RBs ranked 22nd in FPs last year, and the team RBs ranked 18th in FP in 2006. The problem is, they haven't run for many TDs the past two years.
...and considering how touchdowns are not stable as a metric, the return to a baseline represents value. Big value if there is a skittish crowd of owners in your league.
 
I've learned the past couple of years to stay away from the denver running game. Whoever is listed #1 on the depth chart in june is rarely #1 in october. I'll let someone else deal with this aggravation.
I can't say that I blame you on that, but what GMs should do, in my mind, is let someone else deal with the aggravation DURING THE DRAFT, but be prepared to jump on the backups cheap on the waiver wire later in the year or as that "last pick of the draft" kind of flier type. As a few have mentioned, the Denver running game is still productive, as a whole, it's just hasn't been funneled through one runner in a few years.Just swoop in on the waiver wire guys later and let someone else burn the pick on whomever they feel is going to be #1 at the beginning of the year, or even on who they think the primary backup will be. Last year anyone who burnt an early pick on Henry likely couldn't afford to burn an additional 3-4 spots on the Denver backfield, and at the time of most drafts it was totally unclear who the #2 was so you woulda had to drop at least 3 picks to "handcuff" it. Same situation applies this season. Anyone taking Young isn't going to be able to roster Hall, Torain, Bell, and Sapp(and, hell, who knows, with Skeletor....maybe Hillis) without totally killing their team at other spots. Several of 'em will be around as undrafteds and may be just as likely to see meaningful carries as Young is as the season progresses.
 
Lot's of gargantuan ifs with the Denver running game as previously highlighted above. But...

If Young keeps the job, if stays healthy, and if the passing game gets better his ceiling will be:

255 carries, 1152 yards, 10 rush TDs and 50 receptions 450 yards and 2 scores.

I think a realistic expectation at this early stage is 200 carries 900 yards, 6 rush TDs and 30 receptions for 250 yards and a score.

The talent is there, but the committee of backs in Denver is good enough that they won't have to rely on Young. I think they will try and it makes him a good mid-round pick, but he's far from a lock.

 
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Right now, everybody is so down on the Denver running game. That's what could make Selvin Young a good pick. It all depends on how far he falls in the draft. If you can get him as a RB3, it could potentially be a very good acquisition.

Projections? I'll wait for some fallout from training camp before spitting out any numbers.

 
Honestly, it's way too early to project what will happen with Selvin. I would guess it's going to be RBBC in Denver this year, with whoever ends up being #1 putting up RB2 fantasy numbers. We won't know that for sure until late in preseason, at best. If Selvin gets the #1 job, I would pencil him in for 1000/8 and would draft accordingly.
I've got Selvin, Torrain, and Hall... so as long as Pittman doesn't eat up too many touches, and I know who I'm supposed to start every week, I agree they could put up RB2 numbers. Luckily, I have MB3 and Burner Turner (which I don't know what I'm getting there yet either), so hopefully, I only need a DEN RB for bye weeks.If Selvin gets the lion's share and based on 2007 numbers for DEN RB's (4.5 yds per carry and 7.1 yds per reception), plus Pittman getting some veteran touches and Torrain getting some rookie time (2007 DEN RB's = 375 att, 1698 yds, 9 tds; 59 rec, 423 yds, 1 td)Selvin = 225 att, 1012 yds, 6 tds... 40 rec, 284 yds, 0 td :moneybag:
 
Selvin Young is an interesting study. The Broncos have a nice history of productive running backs and some folks think that the lightning could return, but recent years have seen RBBC type production. In 07, Young led the way with a 5.2 ypc, having 729 yards in only 140 attempts. Travis Henry (now gone) had more carries, 167 for 691 yards. Others split 68 carries, so Young had only 37% of the carries. Henry had 45% of the carries and he missed four games. A closer look revealed that he averaged 20 carries for the first six games, when Young only had 18 total carries. Henry then fell off as Young came on.

In 06, Tatum Bell had 233 for 1025 yards and Mike Bell 157 for 677. Others split 36 carries, so T Bell had 55% and he missed three games. On closer examination, he had a higher percentage than I recalled. Again a look at the game logs shows that T Bell averaged 21 carries per game for the first six games, but then fell off and missed games due to injuries.

I think that Selvin Young proved he had the talent in the last half of 07. I believe that Shanny wanted him to bulk up for the purpose of providing consistent production over the season and he has a possibility of succeeding where Travis Henry and Tatum Bell failed, by holding up through the season. I do not believe that his current ADP of RB31 and 71 overall will move much based on the Shanny negativism and the Broncos have gone with RBBC for the past several years talk. He could very well be the mid round RB that builds a fantasy championship team in 08.

Selvin Young 290 carries for 1276 yards 4.4 ypc and 40 receptions for 300 yards 7.5 ypc and 7 TDs

 
This is one of the hardest guys to figure out. This time last year, everyone was madly in love with Travis Henry. Some people were talking about taking him as high as 3rd overall. A year later, Henry was so bad he's not even on the team. I believe Henry was better than Selvin, and he couldn't bring the fantasy stud-like numbers owners had hoped. Shannahan keeps changing his mind on the running backs, and we've seen alot more RBBC type approach from Shannahan the past couple of seasons. Young had an outstanding 5.2 YPC, BUT,Shannahan never committed to giving him the ball in spite of it. So, what's to say he gives it to him 300 times this year? They drafted Torrain in the 3rd. The last couple of years the joke has been "Denver drafts guy A in the 1st round. They sign guy B to a 20 million dollar contract. Which guy starts? Guy C."

He's got plenty of positives though. Marshall is terriffic, Scheffler is above average, Cutler appears on the verge of being a pro-bowl QB. Defenses won't key on the running game until one of the backs forces them to do so.

237 Rushes

1089 Yards

7 Rushing Tds

38 Receptions

254 Yards

1 TD

 
His current ADP is right about the 6th round, which seems to be a great value too me.. Especially in PPR leagues

Rushing: 240/1290/8

Receiving: 45/402/2
I expect that to go up much closer to week 1. I think his ADP settles into about the 3rd round.
I think lol. You'll be able to get him much later and logically so. Anyone who dares hope for another TD or Portis in DEN will get the aggravation they deserve. I'm so happy someone beat me to Henry last year.
 

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