Player Spotlight: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans Options

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Andre Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

[Yitbos69]

85/1250/11

[Englishteacher]

4 missed games due to injury.

[Burning Sensatio...]

#1 FF WR in 2008.

101, 1485, 14

[Jason Wood]

Anyone that looks at our site's projections or rankings knows that I'm by far the low man on the totem pole with AJ right now. It has nothing to do with my interpretation of his abilities and everything to do with his health.

Johnson had his knee scoped in the middle of May; and while he maintains he'll be out there for most of training camp, I'll believe it when I see it. Another issue we need to be concerned about is the manner in which he plays when nicked up. His play has suffered considerably while he's been hurt; which is seemingly all too often.

The guy has never finished better than WR18 and yet is universally lauded as a top 10 lock. Honestly, he's finished:

23rd as a rookie
22nd in 2004
47th in 2005
18th in 2006
22nd in 2007

And yet I'm seeing projections and ranking that make him out to be one of the few mortal locks for monster production. The way I see it, we can't argue both sides of the fence. If you're going to argue that he's not really "injury prone" and point to the fact he played 16 games in three of five seasons, you can't then discount his fantasy year-end rankings as being a byproduct of being nicked up on a bad team. Can't have your cake and eat it, too.

Five years into his career, Johnson is what he is...a physical marvel who when push comes to shove delivers top 20-25 numbers; making him HIGHLY overrated with or without his knee injury.

[Burning Sensatio...]

Anyone that looks at our site's projections or rankings knows that I'm by far the low man on the totem pole with AJ right now. It has nothing to do with my interpretation of his abilities and everything to do with his health.

Johnson had his knee scoped in the middle of May; and while he maintains he'll be out there for most of training camp, I'll believe it when I see it. Another issue we need to be concerned about is the manner in which he plays when nicked up. His play has suffered considerably while he's been hurt; which is seemingly all too often.

The guy has never finished better than WR18 and yet is universally lauded as a top 10 lock. Honestly, he's finished:

23rd as a rookie
22nd in 2004
47th in 2005
18th in 2006
22nd in 2007

And yet I'm seeing projections and ranking that make him out to be one of the few mortal locks for monster production. The way I see it, we can't argue both sides of the fence. If you're going to argue that he's not really "injury prone" and point to the fact he played 16 games in three of five seasons, you can't then discount his fantasy year-end rankings as being a byproduct of being nicked up on a bad team. Can't have your cake and eat it, too.

Five years into his career, Johnson is what he is...a physical marvel who when push comes to shove delivers top 20-25 numbers; making him HIGHLY overrated with or without his knee injury.

Finishing in the top 25 with David Carr as your QB is like finishing in the top 5. The guy was well on his way to a top five finish last year in his first season without Carr before getting hurt. I can understand your dislike if you think his knee injury is more serious than Johnson or the Texans are saying, but if he is 100% by the start of the season, he is a lock for the top 5.

[Ministry of Pain]

His game logs last season were gaudy. If you project him for a full season you get top3 numbers for FF...but you almost have to assume a couple of games missed.

14 games

84 receptions, 1,250 yds, 12 TD

[SSOG]

Anyone that looks at our site's projections or rankings knows that I'm by far the low man on the totem pole with AJ right now. It has nothing to do with my interpretation of his abilities and everything to do with his health.

Johnson had his knee scoped in the middle of May; and while he maintains he'll be out there for most of training camp, I'll believe it when I see it. Another issue we need to be concerned about is the manner in which he plays when nicked up. His play has suffered considerably while he's been hurt; which is seemingly all too often.

The guy has never finished better than WR18 and yet is universally lauded as a top 10 lock. Honestly, he's finished:

23rd as a rookie
22nd in 2004
47th in 2005
18th in 2006
22nd in 2007

And yet I'm seeing projections and ranking that make him out to be one of the few mortal locks for monster production. The way I see it, we can't argue both sides of the fence. If you're going to argue that he's not really "injury prone" and point to the fact he played 16 games in three of five seasons, you can't then discount his fantasy year-end rankings as being a byproduct of being nicked up on a bad team. Can't have your cake and eat it, too.

Five years into his career, Johnson is what he is...a physical marvel who when push comes to shove delivers top 20-25 numbers; making him HIGHLY overrated with or without his knee injury.

For much of the year, Johnson was averaging more points per game than the guy having the greatest fantasy season any WR has ever had ever. He led the league in yards per game, only fell below 70 yards receiving ONCE, and scored at least one TD in 7 of his 9 games. Arguing that he was anything other than one of the top 5 WRs in the league last year is just silly... which means you either expect him to get injured, or you expect him to regress. I'm fine with discounting him for either reason, but discounting him because his highest end-of-year ranking so far was 18th? Flimsy, imo.

Look at the reasons WHY his EoY rankings were so low. Early on, it's because he wasn't a great fantasy WR (or because his QB was holding him back- take your pick). Last year, it was ONLY because he was hurt. If you expect his string of low rankings to continue, you must expect one or the other to be the case. Personally, I'm of the opinion that once a player as talented as Andre finally gets into a good situation and breaks out, he doesn't UNBREAK out... so the only thing that can hold him back from a monster year would be injury.

94/1320/12 assuming he's healthy.

Also, for what it's worth, I was the guy who spent much of last offseason arguing that Andre would never be a top 5 fantasy WR.

[Tanner9919]

eventually, the word 'potential' is just another way of saying 'never having done it'.AJ is loaded with 'potential', but hasn't delivered the goods relative to his NFL draft position ( high first round pick)...

by comparison, Derrick Mason has avg'd BETTER stats than AJ over the past 5 seasons:
Mason: 89/1076/5
AJ: 74/960/5

when talking in terms of ADP, there's not even a comparison between the two, Mason wins hands down! In 11 years, Mason has missed just 5 games..and the case can be made that Carr threw to AJ, but Mason , over the past 5 seasons, has had to catch passes from Boller, Anthony Wright, 55-yr old Steve McNair ( Balt.). So both both have caught passes from lousy QB's..

the fact of the matter is that AJ is an oft-injured player..Robert Smith was loaded with talent, and could never stay healthy.People avoided the guy on fantasy sites because he was deemed 'too fragile'.so why are we singing AJ's praises, another guy who is loaded with 'potential' but has yet to deliver?
I don't want to hear about 'he coulda, he shoulda he woulda', or `if he didn't get hurt`..we shouldn't talk in terms of 'he was on pace to be the best WR in NFL history last season' and so on, the reality is the guy didn't deliver, he didn't set records, he isn't the next Jerry Rice..5 years into a pro career , and some people are still drinking the AJ kool-aid, the same people who would bury Robert Smith in a heartbeat for being too fragile..

the numbers don't lie, Derrick Mason represents much greater value than AJ...Mason outperforms AJ across the board over the past 5 seasons, and, he's never hurt.

I love all of these 'if' AJ doesn't get hurt, he's a top 5 WR' posts..
/if_if_if


...and, if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ### a-hoppin, now would he?' -Raising Arizona

[Lauryn]

eventually, the word 'potential' is just another way of saying 'never having done it'.AJ is loaded with 'potential', but hasn't delivered the goods relative to his NFL draft position ( high first round pick)...

by comparison, Derrick Mason has avg'd BETTER stats than AJ over the past 5 seasons:
Mason: 89/1076/5
AJ: 74/960/5

when talking in terms of ADP, there's not even a comparison between the two, Mason wins hands down! In 11 years, Mason has missed just 5 games..and the case can be made that Carr threw to AJ, but Mason , over the past 5 seasons, has had to catch passes from Boller, Anthony Wright, 55-yr old Steve McNair ( Balt.). So both both have caught passes from lousy QB's..

the fact of the matter is that AJ is an oft-injured player..Robert Smith was loaded with talent, and could never stay healthy.People avoided the guy on fantasy sites because he was deemed 'too fragile'.so why are we singing AJ's praises, another guy who is loaded with 'potential' but has yet to deliver?
I don't want to hear about 'he coulda, he shoulda he woulda', or `if he didn't get hurt`..we shouldn't talk in terms of 'he was on pace to be the best WR in NFL history last season' and so on, the reality is the guy didn't deliver, he didn't set records, he isn't the next Jerry Rice..5 years into a pro career , and some people are still drinking the AJ kool-aid, the same people who would bury Robert Smith in a heartbeat for being too fragile..

the numbers don't lie, Derrick Mason represents much greater value than AJ...Mason outperforms AJ across the board over the past 5 seasons, and, he's never hurt.

I love all of these 'if' AJ doesn't get hurt, he's a top 5 WR' posts..
/if_if_if


...and, if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ### a-hoppin, now would he?' -Raising Arizona

this post is full of fail

95/1370/11

[gman8343]

85 1140 8 TDs

[The Man with the...]

The problem I have with Andre Johnson is that everybody thinks he's going to be great which means he's not a secret which means if you want him on your team you're going to have to pay a lot to get him. With the price that has to be paid he must put up stud numbers. What he did up to this point in his career won't be good enough.

With that being said I like him this season if healthy of course. I won't reach for him but so far it seems like that's what you'll have to do if you want Andre Johnson on your team.

[T Bell]

Yes, his injuries are a concern, but I don't see how you can be down on a guy who tends to put up strong WR1 numbers on a ppg basis when he is healthy.

As I repeatedly say, unless I know a player will miss games, I project for 16 games. For AJ, those project to excellent numbers:

100/1450/11

[Jason Wood]

The problem I have with Andre Johnson is that everybody thinks he's going to be great which means he's not a secret which means if you want him on your team you're going to have to pay a lot to get him. With the price that has to be paid he must put up stud numbers. What he did up to this point in his career won't be good enough.

With that being said I like him this season if healthy of course. I won't reach for him but so far it seems like that's what you'll have to do if you want Andre Johnson on your team.

Exactly. People are EXPECTING him to do something he's never done, and are paying for it. Despite the fact the guy had his knee cleaned out in Mid-May. Way too much risk at his current ADP for my tastes. And again, I'm not questioning his talent.

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

[RoyDubb]

The problem I have with Andre Johnson is that everybody thinks he's going to be great which means he's not a secret which means if you want him on your team you're going to have to pay a lot to get him. With the price that has to be paid he must put up stud numbers. What he did up to this point in his career won't be good enough.

With that being said I like him this season if healthy of course. I won't reach for him but so far it seems like that's what you'll have to do if you want Andre Johnson on your team.

just like ppl DRAFTING Calvin Johnson to be a great one, a lot are projecting very good numbers for Andre Johnson and rightfully so if you can see what the change of QB/system has done for this STUD. Noone can predict injuries.

150 targets, 95 rec, 1400 yds, 12-14 TDs.

[TheDirtyWord]

Andre Johnson seems to be a ploarizing figure heading into 2008. His abbreviated campaign of 2007 has given a glimpse of what he can actually be over a 16 game season, but his performance from 2003-2006, where his production didn't match his hype still lingers. As someone pointed out earlier, Johnson has never ranked better tha WR18 over a full season. So I'd like to make three points:

• In 2005 & 2006, Houston Texans QB's completed 599 passes for a 9.5 YPC average. Not YPA...YPC!
• The #2 WR's for the Texans during those 2 seasons were Jabar Gaffney and Eric Moulds; during their two seasons they combined for 112 catches for a 9.4 YPR.
• Prior to last season, Andre Johnson had missed 3 games in his 4 year career.

What this shows me is that the Texans passing game at the time was rancid throughout and that Johnson alone simply wasn't enough to correct it. During his one season of quasi breakout in 2004, once teams started to fixate on Johnson as Carr's favorite target, Carr didn't have the ability to use that to his advantage and make his other receivers dangerous. When you look at Johnson's 2006, it's a real testament to him that he was able to put up the numbers he did.

But 2007 was the first year the Texans received solid QB play, whether it be from Schaub or Rosenfels. Also, this was Gary Kubiak's second season with the Texans so his passing game and overall offensive concepts started to take shape and what that re-introduced to the Texans offense was Johnson's big play ability.

I mentioned Johnson's quasi-breakout in 2004. What I'm referring to is those first 6 games when Johnson went for: 33 receptions, 591 yards 17.9 YPA 4 TD's. Remember that during that brief period, it looked like Carr was putting it together, but then defenses adjusted, turned Johnson into a guy that over the next 2.5 years of his career averaged 11.3 YPR and Carr, unable to make his own adjustments became a cautionary tale.

What's my overall point: There is a very clear evidence that shows external factors beyond Johnson's control as having significant impact on his production.

The only thing that held Johnson back in 2007 was a knee injury, but upon his return his level of production declined minimally. His big play ability was back as evidenced by his 14.2 YPR. With increased level of chemistry between himself and Matt Schaub, I see a big year for Johnson - one that will put him in the first round universally in 2009 drafts.

Prediction: 95 receptions 1435 yards, 12 TD's.

This post has been edited by TheDirtyWord: Jun 23 2008, 09:02 AM

[Yenrub]

If he can stay healthy for the entire season
I expect 85-90 catches for about 1300 yards and 10-12 TD’s

[David Yudkin]

The problem I have with Andre Johnson is that everybody thinks he's going to be great which means he's not a secret which means if you want him on your team you're going to have to pay a lot to get him. With the price that has to be paid he must put up stud numbers. What he did up to this point in his career won't be good enough.

With that being said I like him this season if healthy of course. I won't reach for him but so far it seems like that's what you'll have to do if you want Andre Johnson on your team.

Exactly. People are EXPECTING him to do something he's never done, and are paying for it. Despite the fact the guy had his knee cleaned out in Mid-May. Way too much risk at his current ADP for my tastes. And again, I'm not questioning his talent.

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

I'm going to call out Wood here . . . not that his opinion is not valid, but because he's being inconsistent (and we'll get to that in a minute).

Over the past two seasons, Johnson has averaged 6.52 reeptions, 80.5 reeiving yards, and 0.52 TD per game. Over a 16-game season, that works out to 104-1288-8. I don't see him doing framatically better than that or worse than that if he plays every game (which given his knee I would lean towards him missing a couple of games).

AJ has played 16 game 3 of 5 years (but has not been healthy AND productive in the same season).

As for Wood, my issue is that for some players the argument is "he hasn't," but in his productions he sometimes doesn't factor that in. For example, McNabb hasn't played a full season in 5 years and only once in seven, yet he's got McNabb pegged as the #4 QB. Why should McNabb suddenly get healthy?

Maroney hasn't hit the numbers Wood has him slated for eaither . . . he's been underproductive and dinged up . . . why will he do anything different this year?

I'm not saying any of this is right or wrong . . . only seemingly inconsistent.

[Just Win Baby]

eventually, the word 'potential' is just another way of saying 'never having done it'.AJ is loaded with 'potential', but hasn't delivered the goods relative to his NFL draft position ( high first round pick)...

by comparison, Derrick Mason has avg'd BETTER stats than AJ over the past 5 seasons:
Mason: 89/1076/5
AJ: 74/960/5

when talking in terms of ADP, there's not even a comparison between the two, Mason wins hands down! In 11 years, Mason has missed just 5 games..and the case can be made that Carr threw to AJ, but Mason , over the past 5 seasons, has had to catch passes from Boller, Anthony Wright, 55-yr old Steve McNair ( Balt.). So both both have caught passes from lousy QB's..

the fact of the matter is that AJ is an oft-injured player..Robert Smith was loaded with talent, and could never stay healthy.People avoided the guy on fantasy sites because he was deemed 'too fragile'.so why are we singing AJ's praises, another guy who is loaded with 'potential' but has yet to deliver?
I don't want to hear about 'he coulda, he shoulda he woulda', or `if he didn't get hurt`..we shouldn't talk in terms of 'he was on pace to be the best WR in NFL history last season' and so on, the reality is the guy didn't deliver, he didn't set records, he isn't the next Jerry Rice..5 years into a pro career , and some people are still drinking the AJ kool-aid, the same people who would bury Robert Smith in a heartbeat for being too fragile..

the numbers don't lie, Derrick Mason represents much greater value than AJ...Mason outperforms AJ across the board over the past 5 seasons, and, he's never hurt.

I love all of these 'if' AJ doesn't get hurt, he's a top 5 WR' posts..
/if_if_if


...and, if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ### a-hoppin, now would he?' -Raising Arizona

I disagree with just about everything you posted here.

AJ is not oft-injured. He has played 5 seasons, and in the first 4 missed only 3 games. Missing 7 games last year due to a single injury does not make him "oft-injured". It is certainly valid to question his current health, given he had his knee scoped in May... but that is different than what you are claiming.

Looking at a 5 year comparison for Mason and AJ is not useful. Situations change too much over that period.

David Carr is most assuredly a worse QB than the Boller/Wright/McNair group you cited as having been throwing to Mason over that period.

This brings me to the problem that I have with most critics' analysis. There are 3 main situations AJ has played in:

First 3 seasons: Capers coaching staff and Carr at QB - AJ finished #23, #22, and #47
4th season: Kubiak coaching staff and Carr at QB - AJ finished #18
5th season: Kubiak coaching staff and Schaub/Rosenfels at QB - AJ finished #22 despite missing 7 games

To me, each of those 3 situations was very different. The situation from last season is the only one that seems very relevant in terms of projecting forward - same coaching staff and QBs, which can't be said for the first 4 seasons. Plus, it is possible Kubiak is still improving as a coach - he showed improvement from year 1 to year 2 - and Schaub is still improving as a QB, given last season was his first year as a starting QB. Both of those things should help AJ.

So to me, his current health matters, and his current coaching and QB combination matters. Past health and past coaching/QB combinations don't. Obviously his current health is a question mark. If he ends up healthy to start the season, there is absolutely no reason to worry about his past performance with Carr. If he doesn't start the season healthy, then his ADP will probably drop, and his value will depend on whether or not we expect him to get healthy at some point.

[eric rymer]

"IF" he plays all 16:
97-1350-13

I would not want to count on him as my #1 though, which means he'll go too early for me to find real value in him.

ETA I think about 80-1200-10 is more likely

This post has been edited by eric rymer: Jun 23 2008, 11:28 AM

[Jason Wood]

The problem I have with Andre Johnson is that everybody thinks he's going to be great which means he's not a secret which means if you want him on your team you're going to have to pay a lot to get him. With the price that has to be paid he must put up stud numbers. What he did up to this point in his career won't be good enough.

With that being said I like him this season if healthy of course. I won't reach for him but so far it seems like that's what you'll have to do if you want Andre Johnson on your team.

Exactly. People are EXPECTING him to do something he's never done, and are paying for it. Despite the fact the guy had his knee cleaned out in Mid-May. Way too much risk at his current ADP for my tastes. And again, I'm not questioning his talent.

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

I'm going to call out Wood here . . . not that his opinion is not valid, but because he's being inconsistent (and we'll get to that in a minute).

Over the past two seasons, Johnson has averaged 6.52 reeptions, 80.5 reeiving yards, and 0.52 TD per game. Over a 16-game season, that works out to 104-1288-8. I don't see him doing framatically better than that or worse than that if he plays every game (which given his knee I would lean towards him missing a couple of games).

AJ has played 16 game 3 of 5 years (but has not been healthy AND productive in the same season).

As for Wood, my issue is that for some players the argument is "he hasn't," but in his productions he sometimes doesn't factor that in. For example, McNabb hasn't played a full season in 5 years and only once in seven, yet he's got McNabb pegged as the #4 QB. Why should McNabb suddenly get healthy?

Maroney hasn't hit the numbers Wood has him slated for eaither . . . he's been underproductive and dinged up . . . why will he do anything different this year?

I'm not saying any of this is right or wrong . . . only seemingly inconsistent.

Fair points David.

Not being a doctor, and accepting that injuries are hard to project; I'm generally overly cautious when it comes to projecting injuries. In AJ's case, he was scoped in MAY. That's what gives me pause. If he practices in training camp, as I said, I'll ratchet his games played up considerably and while I still wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him at his ADP, my ranking and projection will be more in line with the consensus by virtue of the GP adjustment.

McNabb is an interesting case on the other side of things. As you probably recall, I was MORE negative on McNabb than just about anyone last year and didn't see him as a top 10 prospect at the position b/c of his prior injuries. As the preseason wore on I bumped him into my top 10 but avoided him in most drafts. This year, for no other reason than I figure the guy is due for a bit of good luck (and I damn sure want that to be the case), I'm modeling 16 games played for him right now. That said, with his shoulder soreness creeping up, I'm basically fighting the inevitable downside adjustment on him.

[css2373]

Whether or not to project injuries is one thing, but projecting him to have one of the top 5-7 performances over the last 3 years, like most people are doing, is another. Just looking at the last 3 years, only the top 3 WR's average over 200 FFpts. So just for example, The Dirty Word has him going for 1435 and 12, both not only career numbers, but only been topped 4 times in total FFpts the last 3 years. That is really lofty.

How about he just beats his career best in yards and TD's in one season:

1200 yards and 9 TD's, just inside the top 10.

[BuckeyeArt]

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

Your latest projections have him at 137 pts, which would give him 13.7 pts/game over those 10 games, roughly equal to the production of Wayne at #2. Since it sounds like you would be projecting him to play the latter half of the season, it seems that would justify taking him much earlier (because you'd have him around for the FF playoffs). It seems like your ranking of him is really in line with everyone else's, at least on a per game basis. Maybe having a GP column and a choice to sort by PPG would make the projections better.

[moderated]

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

Your latest projections have him at 137 pts, which would give him 13.7 pts/game over those 10 games, roughly equal to the production of Wayne at #2. Since it sounds like you would be projecting him to play the latter half of the season, it seems that would justify taking him much earlier (because you'd have him around for the FF playoffs). It seems like your ranking of him is really in line with everyone else's, at least on a per game basis. Maybe having a GP column and a choice to sort by PPG would make the projections better.

If projections are going to try to guess games played then having a GP and PPG sort is a necessity.

I really think trying to guess games played is a pretty foolish exercise, but if doing it at least include a PPG column in the projections.

[TheDirtyWord]

Whether or not to project injuries is one thing, but projecting him to have one of the top 5-7 performances over the last 3 years, like most people are doing, is another. Just looking at the last 3 years, only the top 3 WR's average over 200 FFpts. So just for example, The Dirty Word has him going for 1435 and 12, both not only career numbers, but only been topped 4 times in total FFpts the last 3 years. That is really lofty.

How about he just beats his career best in yards and TD's in one season:

1200 yards and 9 TD's, just inside the top 10.

What I would reply though is this...

You say the numbers I propose for him would be a career year. I say he was producing at this level last year, but the random occurrence of an injury shelved him for a good part of the season. But on a per game basis, Johnson was averaging:

95.7 YPG & .9 TD/G

What many here are projecting are similar to your numbers (1200/9). On a per game basis, that levels out to 75 YPG & .6 TD/G (I rounded down for math's sake). The crux of my post originally was to decipher why Johnson had not risen to this level prior to 2007. In short those reasons were 1) QB - Carr & 2) Coach - not Kubiak.

The question I would ask for those who suggest Johnson was a fluke of sorts is why would his production decrease 22% in yards and 33% in TD's?

This post has been edited by TheDirtyWord: Jun 23 2008, 02:08 PM

[Anarchy99]

You say the numbers I propose for him would be a career year. I say he was producing at this level last year, but the random occurrence of an injury shelved him for a good part of the season. But on a per game basis, Johnson was averaging:

95.7 YPG & .9 TD/G

The question I would ask for those who suggest Johnson was a fluke of sorts is why would his production decrease 22% in yards and 33% in TD's?

In short, because it's not easy averaging almost 100 yards and a TD a game over a full season. Only 13 receivers have had 1600 receiving yards and only 14 have had 16 receiving TD in a season. And only 1 has had both in the same season (Moss in 2003).

[TheDirtyWord]

You say the numbers I propose for him would be a career year. I say he was producing at this level last year, but the random occurrence of an injury shelved him for a good part of the season. But on a per game basis, Johnson was averaging:

95.7 YPG & .9 TD/G

The question I would ask for those who suggest Johnson was a fluke of sorts is why would his production decrease 22% in yards and 33% in TD's?

In short, because it's not easy averaging almost 100 yards and a TD a game over a full season. Only 13 receivers have had 1600 receiving yards and only 14 have had 16 receiving TD in a season. And only 1 has had both in the same season (Moss in 2003).

That's why my projection was less than that...

To reach the numbers I'm projecting for Johnson, if we are going by last season, Johnson would have had to produce 599 yards & 4 TD's in the 7 games he did not play. Quite a bit less that the rate of production he had produced for the part of the season he played.

This post has been edited by TheDirtyWord: Jun 23 2008, 02:30 PM

[Jason Wood]

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

Your latest projections have him at 137 pts, which would give him 13.7 pts/game over those 10 games, roughly equal to the production of Wayne at #2. Since it sounds like you would be projecting him to play the latter half of the season, it seems that would justify taking him much earlier (because you'd have him around for the FF playoffs). It seems like your ranking of him is really in line with everyone else's, at least on a per game basis. Maybe having a GP column and a choice to sort by PPG would make the projections better.

If projections are going to try to guess games played then having a GP and PPG sort is a necessity.

I really think trying to guess games played is a pretty foolish exercise, but if doing it at least include a PPG column in the projections.

Games played are built into the Projections Dominator. Just not shown in columnar form on the website.

[moderated]

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

Your latest projections have him at 137 pts, which would give him 13.7 pts/game over those 10 games, roughly equal to the production of Wayne at #2. Since it sounds like you would be projecting him to play the latter half of the season, it seems that would justify taking him much earlier (because you'd have him around for the FF playoffs). It seems like your ranking of him is really in line with everyone else's, at least on a per game basis. Maybe having a GP column and a choice to sort by PPG would make the projections better.

If projections are going to try to guess games played then having a GP and PPG sort is a necessity.

I really think trying to guess games played is a pretty foolish exercise, but if doing it at least include a PPG column in the projections.

Games played are built into the Projections Dominator. Just not shown in columnar form on the website.

would definitely be nice to see it available on the website if it isn't too much trouble, that way those who think projecting games played is pointless can get more reliable output sorting the projections by the PPG column.

[Arm Chair Expres...]

eventually, the word 'potential' is just another way of saying 'never having done it'.AJ is loaded with 'potential', but hasn't delivered the goods relative to his NFL draft position ( high first round pick)...

by comparison, Derrick Mason has avg'd BETTER stats than AJ over the past 5 seasons:
Mason: 89/1076/5
AJ: 74/960/5

when talking in terms of ADP, there's not even a comparison between the two, Mason wins hands down! In 11 years, Mason has missed just 5 games..and the case can be made that Carr threw to AJ, but Mason , over the past 5 seasons, has had to catch passes from Boller, Anthony Wright, 55-yr old Steve McNair ( Balt.). So both both have caught passes from lousy QB's..

the fact of the matter is that AJ is an oft-injured player..Robert Smith was loaded with talent, and could never stay healthy.People avoided the guy on fantasy sites because he was deemed 'too fragile'.so why are we singing AJ's praises, another guy who is loaded with 'potential' but has yet to deliver?
I don't want to hear about 'he coulda, he shoulda he woulda', or `if he didn't get hurt`..we shouldn't talk in terms of 'he was on pace to be the best WR in NFL history last season' and so on, the reality is the guy didn't deliver, he didn't set records, he isn't the next Jerry Rice..5 years into a pro career , and some people are still drinking the AJ kool-aid, the same people who would bury Robert Smith in a heartbeat for being too fragile..

the numbers don't lie, Derrick Mason represents much greater value than AJ...Mason outperforms AJ across the board over the past 5 seasons, and, he's never hurt.

I love all of these 'if' AJ doesn't get hurt, he's a top 5 WR' posts..
/if_if_if


...and, if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ### a-hoppin, now would he?' -Raising Arizona

Yeah, I remember people saying this about Isaac Bruce before he finally got over his hamstring problems.

[Arm Chair Expres...]

The problem I have with Andre Johnson is that everybody thinks he's going to be great which means he's not a secret which means if you want him on your team you're going to have to pay a lot to get him. With the price that has to be paid he must put up stud numbers. What he did up to this point in his career won't be good enough.

With that being said I like him this season if healthy of course. I won't reach for him but so far it seems like that's what you'll have to do if you want Andre Johnson on your team.

Exactly. People are EXPECTING him to do something he's never done, and are paying for it. Despite the fact the guy had his knee cleaned out in Mid-May. Way too much risk at his current ADP for my tastes. And again, I'm not questioning his talent.

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

Dude it was a scope, not reconstructive surgery!

[Lauryn]

eventually, the word 'potential' is just another way of saying 'never having done it'.AJ is loaded with 'potential', but hasn't delivered the goods relative to his NFL draft position ( high first round pick)...

by comparison, Derrick Mason has avg'd BETTER stats than AJ over the past 5 seasons:
Mason: 89/1076/5
AJ: 74/960/5

when talking in terms of ADP, there's not even a comparison between the two, Mason wins hands down! In 11 years, Mason has missed just 5 games..and the case can be made that Carr threw to AJ, but Mason , over the past 5 seasons, has had to catch passes from Boller, Anthony Wright, 55-yr old Steve McNair ( Balt.). So both both have caught passes from lousy QB's..

the fact of the matter is that AJ is an oft-injured player..Robert Smith was loaded with talent, and could never stay healthy.People avoided the guy on fantasy sites because he was deemed 'too fragile'.so why are we singing AJ's praises, another guy who is loaded with 'potential' but has yet to deliver?
I don't want to hear about 'he coulda, he shoulda he woulda', or `if he didn't get hurt`..we shouldn't talk in terms of 'he was on pace to be the best WR in NFL history last season' and so on, the reality is the guy didn't deliver, he didn't set records, he isn't the next Jerry Rice..5 years into a pro career , and some people are still drinking the AJ kool-aid, the same people who would bury Robert Smith in a heartbeat for being too fragile..

the numbers don't lie, Derrick Mason represents much greater value than AJ...Mason outperforms AJ across the board over the past 5 seasons, and, he's never hurt.

I love all of these 'if' AJ doesn't get hurt, he's a top 5 WR' posts..
/if_if_if


...and, if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ### a-hoppin, now would he?' -Raising Arizona

Yeah, I remember people saying this about Isaac Bruce before he finally got over his hamstring problems.

that's who came to mind first for me as well.

maybe AJ just needs some orthotics, that's what saved bruce (allegedly).

[Jason Wood]

eventually, the word 'potential' is just another way of saying 'never having done it'.AJ is loaded with 'potential', but hasn't delivered the goods relative to his NFL draft position ( high first round pick)...

by comparison, Derrick Mason has avg'd BETTER stats than AJ over the past 5 seasons:
Mason: 89/1076/5
AJ: 74/960/5

when talking in terms of ADP, there's not even a comparison between the two, Mason wins hands down! In 11 years, Mason has missed just 5 games..and the case can be made that Carr threw to AJ, but Mason , over the past 5 seasons, has had to catch passes from Boller, Anthony Wright, 55-yr old Steve McNair ( Balt.). So both both have caught passes from lousy QB's..

the fact of the matter is that AJ is an oft-injured player..Robert Smith was loaded with talent, and could never stay healthy.People avoided the guy on fantasy sites because he was deemed 'too fragile'.so why are we singing AJ's praises, another guy who is loaded with 'potential' but has yet to deliver?
I don't want to hear about 'he coulda, he shoulda he woulda', or `if he didn't get hurt`..we shouldn't talk in terms of 'he was on pace to be the best WR in NFL history last season' and so on, the reality is the guy didn't deliver, he didn't set records, he isn't the next Jerry Rice..5 years into a pro career , and some people are still drinking the AJ kool-aid, the same people who would bury Robert Smith in a heartbeat for being too fragile..

the numbers don't lie, Derrick Mason represents much greater value than AJ...Mason outperforms AJ across the board over the past 5 seasons, and, he's never hurt.

I love all of these 'if' AJ doesn't get hurt, he's a top 5 WR' posts..
/if_if_if


...and, if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ### a-hoppin, now would he?' -Raising Arizona

Yeah, I remember people saying this about Isaac Bruce before he finally got over his hamstring problems.

Two huge differences here:

1) Hamstrings and knees are hardly the same
2) Isaac Bruce actually delivered ELITE seasons at the start of his career before becoming "injury prone"; we're still waiting for AJ to do the same

[Anarchy99]

Two huge differences here:

1) Hamstrings and knees are hardly the same
2) Isaac Bruce actually delivered ELITE seasons at the start of his career before becoming "injury prone"; we're still waiting for AJ to do the same

Since I rarely get a chance to debate Wood much anymore . . .

As we all know, AJ had a great year last year when he was actually in the lineup. Wood will say we are waiting for Johnson to have an elite season, and some of us might suggest that last year would have been that season had he actually managed to play out the entire year. Playing the game of what could have been, at the same rate of production, Johnson wuold have scored 227 points if he played every game last year. I know, it didn't happen so we have to act like it didn't happen.

I'm not sure what classifies an elite season, so I am going to pick a number (200 fantasy points 0 PPR) as the threshold. In the past 10 years, there were 7 WR that hit that mark at some point in their first three seasons: Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, David Boston, Javon Walker, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, and Torry Holt. Two others did it in their fourth season (Marvin Harrison and Antonio Freeman). If healthier last year, I think it would be reasonable to think that Johnson had an excellent chance to join that list.

Early on I was not a huge Johnson fan, as he clearly was getting drafted based on wishes and prayers of a Top 5 season when he was ranking in the 20s.

With the improvements in Houston, he *SHOULD* be able to maintain his new found productivity *IF* he were to stay healthy. The real issue we all are having here is how much to mark Johnson down for being potentially damaged goods.

Given that his ADP is as the #6 WR, that's too rich for my blood. HOWEVER, I still might be inclined to draft him somewhere a little past that based on the fact that when he does play he *SHOULD* be a top producer.

Better stated, I'd rather have the production of AJ for say 12 games vs someone that may slighty outproduce him playing 16 games. AJ averaged 14.2 ppg last year (rnaking 3rd just behind TO). I would rather have 12 games of Johnson than 16 games of Wes Welker at 10 ppg. (You can always play one of your bench receivers in the games Johnson misses.)

I haven't drafted him yet this year, but if people like Wood keep making it ou like he won't be able to walk upright again due to injuries, I might be inclined to take him depending upon my draft slot and who I already took.

[Jason Wood]

Two huge differences here:

1) Hamstrings and knees are hardly the same
2) Isaac Bruce actually delivered ELITE seasons at the start of his career before becoming "injury prone"; we're still waiting for AJ to do the same

Since I rarely get a chance to debate Wood much anymore . . .

As we all know, AJ had a great year last year when he was actually in the lineup. Wood will say we are waiting for Johnson to have an elite season, and some of us might suggest that last year would have been that season had he actually managed to play out the entire year. Playing the game of what could have been, at the same rate of production, Johnson wuold have scored 227 points if he played every game last year. I know, it didn't happen so we have to act like it didn't happen.

I'm not sure what classifies an elite season, so I am going to pick a number (200 fantasy points 0 PPR) as the threshold. In the past 10 years, there were 7 WR that hit that mark at some point in their first three seasons: Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, David Boston, Javon Walker, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, and Torry Holt. Two others did it in their fourth season (Marvin Harrison and Antonio Freeman). If healthier last year, I think it would be reasonable to think that Johnson had an excellent chance to join that list.

Early on I was not a huge Johnson fan, as he clearly was getting drafted based on wishes and prayers of a Top 5 season when he was ranking in the 20s.

With the improvements in Houston, he *SHOULD* be able to maintain his new found productivity *IF* he were to stay healthy. The real issue we all are having here is how much to mark Johnson down for being potentially damaged goods.

Given that his ADP is as the #6 WR, that's too rich for my blood. HOWEVER, I still might be inclined to draft him somewhere a little past that based on the fact that when he does play he *SHOULD* be a top producer.

Better stated, I'd rather have the production of AJ for say 12 games vs someone that may slighty outproduce him playing 16 games. AJ averaged 14.2 ppg last year (rnaking 3rd just behind TO). I would rather have 12 games of Johnson than 16 games of Wes Welker at 10 ppg. (You can always play one of your bench receivers in the games Johnson misses.)

I haven't drafted him yet this year, but if people like Wood keep making it ou like he won't be able to walk upright again due to injuries, I might be inclined to take him depending upon my draft slot and who I already took.

I'm not making it out to be like anything. I'm not a doctor, and it's early June. I have said repeatedly that IF AJ shows up and practices throughout Training Camp as he promises, I will happily raise my projections and rankings up on him. As someone also pointed out, on a PPG basis, my projections indicate I think AJ is an elite talent and capable of elite production.

I'm a firm believer that my rankings and projections in May (when I first submit them) BETTER BE DIFFERENT than the ones I go to the draft board with in August and early September or else I'm doing myself and the subscribers and forum members and injustice. There's not one projection or ranking on my list that I'm not ready, willing and able to change if circumstances warrant.

Let's let this play out. Let's see if AJ is healthy in camp. Let's see if he cuts and practices day in, day out. If he does? Great...I'll bump up AJ in my rankings and summarily drop down Walter and Davis who, right now, I suspect represent great value.

[Just Win Baby]

I'm a firm believer that my rankings and projections in May (when I first submit them) BETTER BE DIFFERENT than the ones I go to the draft board with in August and early September or else I'm doing myself and the subscribers and forum members and injustice. There's not one projection or ranking on my list that I'm not ready, willing and able to change if circumstances warrant.

I think there is a subtle distinction to be made here. IMO when you put forth your projections, you should be projecting what you think will happen, not just projecting something as a placeholder until further information is available. So, to me, when you put out your projection as it is for AJ, you are saying you believe he will play 10 games. If that's what you believe, so be it. But it sounds to me like you aren't saying that at all... you are really saying you don't want to project him higher without more proof, which will come later in the preseason (or not), so you're just using a placeholder.

Note this is not a criticism of Jason. I think plenty of those who do projections and rankings take this approach. I have tried to point this out before, but no one really addressed it. Maybe I'm the only one who sees the distinction.

[Just Win Baby]

Early on I was not a huge Johnson fan, as he clearly was getting drafted based on wishes and prayers of a Top 5 season when he was ranking in the 20s.

I tried to go to FBG.com and find ADP data for past years, but couldn't find it. Is it available?

This made me think that a nice feature to add to the site would be to add links to previous years for each recurring feature. For example, if you look at 2008 ADP data, put links at the top to link back to ADP data for 2007, 2006, etc. Same for the Perfect Draft article, Value Plays article, rankings, etc.

And while I'm thinking about it, here is another suggestion. Add games played to the Data Dominator, along with the ability to sort by PPG, and not just fantasy points. For that matter, perhaps it would be best to add another category to choose, like totals vs. per game, which would enable the data to be presented as any category (rushing yards, fantasy points, etc.) per game or any category totals.

[Jason Wood]

I'm a firm believer that my rankings and projections in May (when I first submit them) BETTER BE DIFFERENT than the ones I go to the draft board with in August and early September or else I'm doing myself and the subscribers and forum members and injustice. There's not one projection or ranking on my list that I'm not ready, willing and able to change if circumstances warrant.

I think there is a subtle distinction to be made here. IMO when you put forth your projections, you should be projecting what you think will happen, not just projecting something as a placeholder until further information is available. So, to me, when you put out your projection as it is for AJ, you are saying you believe he will play 10 games. If that's what you believe, so be it. But it sounds to me like you aren't saying that at all... you are really saying you don't want to project him higher without more proof, which will come later in the preseason (or not), so you're just using a placeholder.

Note this is not a criticism of Jason. I think plenty of those who do projections and rankings take this approach. I have tried to point this out before, but no one really addressed it. Maybe I'm the only one who sees the distinction.

Projections in May, June, July or August are nothing more than educated guesses, we all know that. Based on what I know right now, and my feeling on how seemingly minor injuries can turn out to be much worse, I expect AJ to fall short of a full season and, in turn, think he's one of the least compelling picks in the early rounds since his ADP indicates most are NOT worried about that.

But training camp will settle that. If he practices, it would be foolish for me to stick to "he'll miss games" mantra for the sake of it. On the flip side, if the guy is gimpy all camp and doesn't practice much if at all, you can be sure a lot more people will tweak his rankings, projections and ADP down to where I have him.

Such is life.

[Just Win Baby]

I'm a firm believer that my rankings and projections in May (when I first submit them) BETTER BE DIFFERENT than the ones I go to the draft board with in August and early September or else I'm doing myself and the subscribers and forum members and injustice. There's not one projection or ranking on my list that I'm not ready, willing and able to change if circumstances warrant.

I think there is a subtle distinction to be made here. IMO when you put forth your projections, you should be projecting what you think will happen, not just projecting something as a placeholder until further information is available. So, to me, when you put out your projection as it is for AJ, you are saying you believe he will play 10 games. If that's what you believe, so be it. But it sounds to me like you aren't saying that at all... you are really saying you don't want to project him higher without more proof, which will come later in the preseason (or not), so you're just using a placeholder.

Note this is not a criticism of Jason. I think plenty of those who do projections and rankings take this approach. I have tried to point this out before, but no one really addressed it. Maybe I'm the only one who sees the distinction.

Projections in May, June, July or August are nothing more than educated guesses, we all know that. Based on what I know right now, and my feeling on how seemingly minor injuries can turn out to be much worse, I expect AJ to fall short of a full season and, in turn, think he's one of the least compelling picks in the early rounds since his ADP indicates most are NOT worried about that.

But training camp will settle that. If he practices, it would be foolish for me to stick to "he'll miss games" mantra for the sake of it. On the flip side, if the guy is gimpy all camp and doesn't practice much if at all, you can be sure a lot more people will tweak his rankings, projections and ADP down to where I have him.

Such is life.

Just to clarify, I didn't mean to suggest that you shouldn't update your projections and rankings when new information becomes available. I was simply saying that at any given time, projections and rankings should be one's best estimation of what will happen this season. It sounded to me like you were simply using a placeholder, not really standing behind your projection for AJ, until further information becomes available. Like I said, maybe no one sees the distinction but me.

I'd also be interested in getting a feel for (a) why you chose 10 games for your AJ projection, or, more generally, how you project a number of games played for any player; and (b) about what % of players do you project injuries for in your rankings and projections.

ETA: So, looking at the bolded statement, you are projecting that AJ will be gimpy all of training camp and won't practice much at all. Correct?

This post has been edited by Just Win Baby: Jun 24 2008, 10:06 AM

[David Yudkin]

ETA: So, looking at the bolded statement, you are projecting that AJ will be gimpy all of training camp and won't practice much at all. Correct?

I think what JW is saying that he bases his projections on current market conditions as if the season were to begin today. Based on that, he would project AJ to miss some time. So as time evolves and we get closer to the season, if AJ looks better and can make all appropriate football moves, he will up his playing time and games played accordingly.

[Jason Wood]

ETA: So, looking at the bolded statement, you are projecting that AJ will be gimpy all of training camp and won't practice much at all. Correct?

I think what JW is saying that he bases his projections on current market conditions as if the season were to begin today. Based on that, he would project AJ to miss some time. So as time evolves and we get closer to the season, if AJ looks better and can make all appropriate football moves, he will up his playing time and games played accordingly.

Exactly

[unckeyherb]

ETA: So, looking at the bolded statement, you are projecting that AJ will be gimpy all of training camp and won't practice much at all. Correct?

I think what JW is saying that he bases his projections on current market conditions as if the season were to begin today. Based on that, he would project AJ to miss some time. So as time evolves and we get closer to the season, if AJ looks better and can make all appropriate football moves, he will up his playing time and games played accordingly.

Exactly

I understand completely and agree with this line of thinking to a point. I guess my only question would be how do you determine x number of games for any player to miss?

[Just Win Baby]

ETA: So, looking at the bolded statement, you are projecting that AJ will be gimpy all of training camp and won't practice much at all. Correct?

I think what JW is saying that he bases his projections on current market conditions as if the season were to begin today. Based on that, he would project AJ to miss some time. So as time evolves and we get closer to the season, if AJ looks better and can make all appropriate football moves, he will up his playing time and games played accordingly.

Exactly

That's exactly the point I was trying to make. The season doesn't start today, and we all know that, which is why I find this approach to be somewhat non-intuitive.

Intuitively, I would expect projections/rankings to be based on what we project conditions to be when the season begins, not based on current conditions.

ETA: For many players, this may not make a difference. But for someone like AJ, it does make a difference. The approach I am advocating would require projecting whether or not AJ will be healthy at the start of the season, and then basing projected numbers on that, rather than projecting 6 games missed based on AJ's health today. Like I said, perhaps this is a subtle distinction... perhaps if forced to do this, you'd project that at the start of the season, the state of his knee would be such that he'd miss the first 6 weeks of the season.

This post has been edited by Just Win Baby: Jun 24 2008, 11:20 AM

[Jason Wood]

ETA: So, looking at the bolded statement, you are projecting that AJ will be gimpy all of training camp and won't practice much at all. Correct?

I think what JW is saying that he bases his projections on current market conditions as if the season were to begin today. Based on that, he would project AJ to miss some time. So as time evolves and we get closer to the season, if AJ looks better and can make all appropriate football moves, he will up his playing time and games played accordingly.

Exactly

That's exactly the point I was trying to make. The season doesn't start today, and we all know that, which is why I find this approach to be somewhat non-intuitive.

Intuitively, I would expect projections/rankings to be based on what we project conditions to be when the season begins, not based on current conditions.

JWB...you're dancing in circles here. Based on how I expect things to go today, I think AJ is going to miss time and/or be much less effective than he would be 100% healthy. We will have more information in the next few weeks that will either reinforce that view or dispel it. I will adjust my projections accordingly.

I must say I find it fascinating that so much is being made of my projection because it's not in line with the bullish consensus, yet had I posted something like, "AJ is in for a monster year...100 receptions, 1500 yards and 15 TDs" probably would've yielded nary a question.

One last time, and then let's please move on...I don't currently think Andre Johnson represents value at his ADP based on his past performance and current concerns about the state of his health. I reserve the right to wholeheartedly change that expectation when provided EVIDENCE that he's as healthy as most seem to expect him to be.

[David Yudkin]

Hey JW . . .

Let's pretend Johnson WAS healthy. Then what would you project for him? I'm getting confused by the two issues here . . . one that he isn't healthy and two that he's never been that productive.

So if we negate the health issue and said that he has no lingering health issues and could do all the things that he would normally do, then what would you project him at?

[Just Win Baby]

Hey JW . . .

Let's pretend Johnson WAS healthy. Then what would you project for him? I'm getting confused by the two issues here . . . one that he isn't healthy and two that he's never been that productive.

So if we negate the health issue and said that he has no lingering health issues and could do all the things that he would normally do, then what would you project him at?

From above:

Let me also say, if he does practice at the start of training camp (as he hinted he will) and suffers no setbacks, I will of course raise his full season numbers because I'll assume more than the 10 games played I'm currently projecting.

Your latest projections have him at 137 pts, which would give him 13.7 pts/game over those 10 games, roughly equal to the production of Wayne at #2. Since it sounds like you would be projecting him to play the latter half of the season, it seems that would justify taking him much earlier (because you'd have him around for the FF playoffs). It seems like your ranking of him is really in line with everyone else's, at least on a per game basis. Maybe having a GP column and a choice to sort by PPG would make the projections better.

Jason's current projection for AJ is WR24, with 70/950/7 receiving = 137 fantasy points. Given that he projects that over 10 games, it scales to 112/1520/11 over 16 games... so it doesn't seem that Jason really has concerns over his past performance. Unless he's just hedging and saying either AJ could play lights out for 10 games or he could play more games at a lesser performance level.

[moderated]

Hey JW . . .

Let's pretend Johnson WAS healthy. Then what would you project for him? I'm getting confused by the two issues here . . . one that he isn't healthy and two that he's never been that productive.

So if we negate the health issue and said that he has no lingering health issues and could do all the things that he would normally do, then what would you project him at?

He actually is bullish but with reservations due to injury.

If he was projecting for a 16 game seasons Wood would be projecting

112 rec/1,520 yards/11.2 TD's

So he's actually really high on him.

Edit: above post beat me to it. But in the end it looks like Wood LOVES AJ. Nice to see him join the club.

This post has been edited by moderated: Jun 24 2008, 12:01 PM

[Verbal Kint]

Sounds like this is circling around one of my favorite topics - projection baselines. When developing a projection for a particular player, how do you stress the various factors (injury, legal woes to name a few) that can drastically affect a player's production? Do you set as many of those factors to 0 so you can get comparable stats between players, or do you try to weight each factor on a player by player basis to come up with your most probable outcome?

I for one, try to set a base projection without consideration to such factors, and then ascribe an upside/downside factor to the player outside of his projections.

Said another way, Woody is setting AJ's projection, with built in upside if he can stay healthy, whereas the other camp is setting his projection with built in injury risk. Both are really saying the same thing.

[T Bell]

ETA: So, looking at the bolded statement, you are projecting that AJ will be gimpy all of training camp and won't practice much at all. Correct?

I think what JW is saying that he bases his projections on current market conditions as if the season were to begin today. Based on that, he would project AJ to miss some time. So as time evolves and we get closer to the season, if AJ looks better and can make all appropriate football moves, he will up his playing time and games played accordingly.

"Current market conditions?" That's fine for rankings, but that doesn't make any sense if you're talking about projections. Maybe we're saying the same thing but if you're actually projecting stats, who cares what the market says? Make your projections and the rankings will take care of themselves.

[rzrback77]

Andre Johnson is one of my highest rated WRs for 08. I think this year will be a perfect match of opportunity and talent joining together. I really was impressed by his performance in 07 with the Houston Texans QB improvement. In ppr leagues last year, he had seven of his nine games with greater than 20 fantasy points. In the other two, he had 7 and 13. That consistency in the WR receiver position is very difficult to maintain. In five of his nine games, he had Schaub for QB and averaged 23 fantasy points. With Rosenfels in the other four, he averaged just over 19. Again, solid production with either QB. Outstanding. He is undoubtedly the first option in the Texan passing game that does not have a bell cow RB so that passing game should continue to be an integral part of the offensive plan.

His current ADP is 22 and WR6. That seems a little higher now than I expect in the August drafts. I could see TJ Housh, Colston, Steve Smith, and Chad Johnson going before him. I would love for him to be on my team this year, prefarably getting him a little below his current ADP, say around WR10 and 30 overall. I would probably take him higher with good camp reports on his knee. I think that he and Schaub will both have terrific campaigns in 08.

Andre Johnson 165 targets 109 catches 1493 yards 13.7 ypc 13 TDs

This post has been edited by rzrback77: Jun 24 2008, 04:20 PM