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Player Spotlight: Laveranues Coles (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Laveranues Coles, WR, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Laveranues Coles Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Coles is returning from injury and most reports so far have all been positive. The Jets also ponied up more money for Coles, and I doubt they would do that if they felt he wasn't going to perform at a high level. I like Coles to stay healthy, and even though the QB situation is not very good, I still like him to be productive. Has reception totals from 2002-2206 of 89, 82, 90, 73, 91...nearly the most over that 5 year span.

80 rec, 1000 yds, 5 TD

 
In non-ppr, he doesn't excite me. And he's not an exciting player to most, but that leads to him being undervalued in ppr leagues. The dude gets a lot of targets and catches a lot of balls - he has been top 10 in the league in receptions 4 times in the last 6 years. He may be even more undervalued this year after having some injury problems last year. I've already heard the "injury prone" label thrown around, but prior to last year, he went 6 straight years without missing a game. After 7 games last year, before his injury really started to affect him, he was on pace for 93-1050-14. I certainly don't think he'll get that, but it does show what he is capable of. And he still ended up averaging 14.1 ppg in ppr leagues. He's a rock solid WR2 in ppr leagues. I like him for:

85 rec, 1020 yards (12 ypc), 7 TD. (14.3 ppg in ppr leagues)

 
At this point in his career he is what he is and we shouldn't expect more. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing in this case however. If he's healthy he should have another solid season. I'd prefer that Chad Pennington were the quarterback over Kellen Clemens but he should produce no matter who starts for the Jets.

 
The Man with the Plan said:
At this point in his career he is what he is and we shouldn't expect more. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing in this case however. If he's healthy he should have another solid season. I'd prefer that Chad Pennington were the quarterback over Kellen Clemens but he should produce no matter who starts for the Jets.
Click to expand...
NFLN showed the 2nd Jets Pats game last night - It's tortue waiting for Chad's floaters to come down and then watch the WR"s take a pounding - I think Coles took way too much of a beating over his career due to Chad's soft tosses....I'd love to see Coles get some passes on stride.... People here are talking about Coles not being exciting, I think he'd be a lot more exciting with some juice behind some passes... Though he does go up well and "get it"...I'm hoping Clemens WINS the job.That said, Even in down years Coles puts up #s.90 1190 7Td's
 
Laverneous Coles was injured last year and missed five games so there are a lot of folks that owned him and were disappointed. His running mate at WR Cotchery has caught 82 passes in consecutive years so some favor him. Coles was in a contract dispute during the off-season so some label him as having an attitude. There is a QB controversy in New York so that's another issue. A lot of folks thatnk that the Jets have an improved offensive line and are going to run the ball more. He's just not flashy. So many reasons to downgrade Coles that he should fall even farther than he usually does in drafts.

FBG lists his current ADP as WR27 and overall 73, but I think that he could fall farther than that due to all the above reasons. The truth is that prior to last year he had played in all 16 games for six consecutive seasons. He is very reliable. During those six seasons he averaged 81 receptions and that includes only 59 in 01. He also averaged 848 yards and went over 1,000 three times. I think that he will bounce back nicely and provide solid value in 08.

Lavereous Coles 140 targets 88 catches (63%) for 1050 yards 11.9 ypc and 7 TDs

 
In a full season last year, his numbers extrapolate to

73 Receptions

861 Yards

8 Tds

If you do the same with the games in which he played with Clemens:

76 Receptions

920 Yards

0 Tds

So, there's really no difference in quarterback play--I'm chalking the TD's up to anomaly. Thomas Jones has commanded defenses attention the last few years, Jerricho Cotchery has kept them from putting all the coverage on Coles. Last year was just a bad year due to injury. Still, I think he's not going to outdo the pace he set by much. He just hasn't really been a stud since he returned to the Jets, for whatever reason.

82 Receptions

967 Yards

6 Tds

 
This is an under-the-radar type guy. A consistent producer and someone who works hard, crosses the middle, and will find paydirt on average 6 times a year. I expect his numbers to be around the 75-1000-6 marks again, but with some better QB play, might bump those a tad, though not much.

In addition, it seems Coles is enjoying camp, surprisingly, for he first time under Magini. Although this means relatively little, it indicates Coles is healthy going into the year:

Jets' Coles has a new attitude

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. - Forget about the never-ending Brett Favre rumors. Here is the biggest, most shocking news that has happened at Jets' camp so far.

Laveranues Coles said Sunday: "I'm having fun."

Fun? For Coles? At an Eric Mangini-run training camp? Remember, this is the player who has said numerous times how difficult Mangini's training camps are, and even hinted after the 2006 season that he might retire a year or two from then in order to escape another Mangini camp.

While Coles probably doesn't welcome what he calls "the daily rigors of camp," two season-shortening injuries in 2007 have given him a different perspective.

"That was the toughest year of my career," he said of last season, when he missed four games and most of two others because of a concussion, then a high-ankle sprain.

Coles said, "You take for granted some of the years you've had where you didn't have any injuries, or you didn't have to miss any time. Now I'm back healthy and hopefully, I can have another Laveranues Coles year."

Which last year was not, at least not by Coles' standards. From 2002-06, he averaged 85 receptions per season, with 23 touchdown catches over that span.

While he still had six touchdown catches last season, injuries limited him to 55 receptions, the second-lowest of his NFL career.

Coles suffered a concussion against Buffalo on Oct. 28, and sat out the next week. After the Jets' bye week, he returned Nov. 18 against Pittsburgh, but suffered the left-ankle injury.

He missed another game before returning to catch five passes in a win over Miami on Dec. 2, despite being in obvious pain.

"It's tough when you're dealing with an ankle" injury, Coles said. "At my position, you're trying to change direction and separate from defenders. ... Those had to be some of the toughest games of my career."

Although his statistics went down in 2007, they didn't fall off the table. But Coles did, aggravating the ankle injury in a fall when a makeshift training table gave way in the Jets' hotel on Dec. 15, the day before the New England game.

He was in for one play the next day before being shut down for the season.

That could have been the end of his Jets' career, as Coles wanted to renegotiate his contract, which had two years remaining.

Instead, he and the team compromised, with the Jets agreeing to guarantee the remaining $11 million over two years, which is unusual for a 30-year-old wideout.

"I'm not going to sit here," Coles said, "and tell you, 'Yeah I'm totally happy,' but it is what it is. I've accepted it and we'll deal with it when the time comes again."

"I love playing football and if I can play football, that's what you'll find me doing. My love for the game outweighs [in] some ways making the money."

Which is why Coles spends a lot of time with the younger receivers, showing them the tricks of his trade, something for which Mangini has praised him for.
Click to expand...
 
Going to have to say that if healthy, Coles is a much better short play with Favre under center. Besides the obvious, what are other benefits to Coles?

 
MCguidance said:
Going to have to say that if healthy, Coles is a much better short play with Favre under center. Besides the obvious, what are other benefits to Coles?
Click to expand...
If Brett Favre can help Lav Coles with anything it will be sharing his secret to playing in 16 games. :goodposting:
 
I think Coles is the most talented Jet receiver by a good bit, and he seems to fit the mold of "Brett Favre favorite target." Favre has never really loved the big possession receiver, like Cotchery. You could also make the argument that he's never really had one I guess, but Favre has always liked the crisp route running faster guys on the outside like Robert Brooks, Antonio Freeman, Donald Driver, and Greg Jennings. I always thought that Favre would've loved throwing to Isaac Bruce or Marvin Harrison in their prime. Coles fits the mold. If he can stay healthy, I can see a Driver-like (2004-2007) 1200 and 8, which should out do what you expect from his ADP, although I can't say for sure how high people will start taking Coles now, but I'd guess he moves up to the late 4th early 5th in 12 team, non ppr leagues.

 
i think i had coles projected fairly aggressively to begin with (77-1000-5) and i give him a slight bump from that with favre (80-1050-7). both of those are taking some assumed minor injuries into account.

it's hard to say what the numbers will look like, but the main thing, for me, is that favre makes coles both a little safer and gives him some more upside. with favre, i'd feel comfortable getting coles as safety valve WR2 and great WR3. i didn't really feel that way before.

 
MCguidance said:
Going to have to say that if healthy, Coles is a much better short play with Favre under center. Besides the obvious, what are other benefits to Coles?
Click to expand...
He wont get murdered going over the middle for one of chad's floating ducks. This happened A LOT in the past 2 years.
 
pollardsvision said:
i think i had coles projected fairly aggressively to begin with (77-1000-5) and i give him a slight bump from that with favre (80-1050-7). both of those are taking some assumed minor injuries into account.it's hard to say what the numbers will look like, but the main thing, for me, is that favre makes coles both a little safer and gives him some more upside. with favre, i'd feel comfortable getting coles as safety valve WR2 and great WR3. i didn't really feel that way before.
Click to expand...
I think if he comes into the season 100 percent with Favre as his QB, he could post 88+ catches for 1200 yards and 8 TDs. Not a prediction, I think that's his ceiling with Favre, which is considerably better than it is with Clemens/Pennington.
 
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rzrback77 said:
Laverneous Coles was injured last year and missed five games so there are a lot of folks that owned him and were disappointed. His running mate at WR Cotchery has caught 82 passes in consecutive years so some favor him. Coles was in a contract dispute during the off-season so some label him as having an attitude. There is a QB controversy in New York so that's another issue. A lot of folks thatnk that the Jets have an improved offensive line and are going to run the ball more. He's just not flashy. So many reasons to downgrade Coles that he should fall even farther than he usually does in drafts. FBG lists his current ADP as WR27 and overall 73, but I think that he could fall farther than that due to all the above reasons. The truth is that prior to last year he had played in all 16 games for six consecutive seasons. He is very reliable. During those six seasons he averaged 81 receptions and that includes only 59 in 01. He also averaged 848 yards and went over 1,000 three times. I think that he will bounce back nicely and provide solid value in 08.Lavereous Coles 140 targets 88 catches (63%) for 1050 yards 11.9 ypc and 7 TDs
Click to expand...
With Favre I think the ypc goes up. I'll stick with 88 catches, but increase to 12.9 ypc and 1133 yards and 9 TDs Only problem now is that the ADP will likely rise more than the stats.
 
Jon_Moore said:
pollardsvision said:
i think i had coles projected fairly aggressively to begin with (77-1000-5) and i give him a slight bump from that with favre (80-1050-7). both of those are taking some assumed minor injuries into account.it's hard to say what the numbers will look like, but the main thing, for me, is that favre makes coles both a little safer and gives him some more upside. with favre, i'd feel comfortable getting coles as safety valve WR2 and great WR3. i didn't really feel that way before.
Click to expand...
I think if he comes into the season 100 percent with Favre as his QB, he could post 88+ catches for 1200 yards and 8 TDs. Not a prediction, I think that's his ceiling with Favre, which is considerably better than it is with Clemens/Pennington.
Click to expand...
those are the lines i was thinking on. the 1000ish yards i had him down for before felt like his healthy ceiling. with favre, it feels like his healthy floor.the big difference could be the TDs. it's been a while since coles' speed to go deep really mattered. it's pretty clear how favre can give coles some TD opps where pennington couldn't.
 
trader jake said:
MCguidance said:
Going to have to say that if healthy, Coles is a much better short play with Favre under center. Besides the obvious, what are other benefits to Coles?
Click to expand...
If Brett Favre can help Lav Coles with anything it will be sharing his secret to playing in 16 games. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
Code: 
2001 NYJ 16 10 108 10.8 0  59 868 14.7 7 140 23 10   2002 NYJ [b]16[/b] 6 39 6.5 0 131 89 1264 14.2 5 160 13 40 [game logs] [splits] 2003 WAS [b]16[/b] 10 39 3.9 0 158 82 1204 14.7 6 160 13 56 [game logs] [splits] 2004 WAS[b] 16[/b] 3 -3 -1.0 0 162 90 950 10.6 1 101 41 0 [game logs] [splits] 2005 NYJ [b]16[/b] 0 0 0.0 0 133 73 845 11.6 5 115 31 0 [game logs] [splits] 2006 NYJ [b]16 [/b]2 14 7.0 0 151 91 1098 12.1 6 147 16 31 [game logs] [splits]
Yeah, so aside from last year, seems he's had a hard time playing in all 16 games for the previous 5 yrs in a row. 2001 was his rookie year and he played in 13 games there simply bc he was only a rookie.
 
trader jake said:
MCguidance said:
Going to have to say that if healthy, Coles is a much better short play with Favre under center. Besides the obvious, what are other benefits to Coles?
Click to expand...
If Brett Favre can help Lav Coles with anything it will be sharing his secret to playing in 16 games. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
2001 NYJ 16 10 108 10.8 0 59 868 14.7 7 140 23 10 2002 NYJ 16 6 39 6.5 0 131 89 1264 14.2 5 160 13 40 [game logs] [splits]

2003 WAS 16 10 39 3.9 0 158 82 1204 14.7 6 160 13 56 [game logs] [splits]

2004 WAS 16 3 -3 -1.0 0 162 90 950 10.6 1 101 41 0 [game logs] [splits]

2005 NYJ 16 0 0 0.0 0 133 73 845 11.6 5 115 31 0 [game logs] [splits]

2006 NYJ 16 2 14 7.0 0 151 91 1098 12.1 6 147 16 31 [game logs] [splits]

Yeah, so aside from last year, he's missed ZERO games in the last SIX years. 2000 was his rookie year and he "only" played in 13 games there simply bc he was a rookie. Of all WR's to pick about missing time, Coles is NOT that guy.

 
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rzrback77 said:
rzrback77 said:
Laverneous Coles was injured last year and missed five games so there are a lot of folks that owned him and were disappointed. His running mate at WR Cotchery has caught 82 passes in consecutive years so some favor him. Coles was in a contract dispute during the off-season so some label him as having an attitude. There is a QB controversy in New York so that's another issue. A lot of folks thatnk that the Jets have an improved offensive line and are going to run the ball more. He's just not flashy. So many reasons to downgrade Coles that he should fall even farther than he usually does in drafts. FBG lists his current ADP as WR27 and overall 73, but I think that he could fall farther than that due to all the above reasons. The truth is that prior to last year he had played in all 16 games for six consecutive seasons. He is very reliable. During those six seasons he averaged 81 receptions and that includes only 59 in 01. He also averaged 848 yards and went over 1,000 three times. I think that he will bounce back nicely and provide solid value in 08.Lavereous Coles 140 targets 88 catches (63%) for 1050 yards 11.9 ypc and 7 TDs
Click to expand...
With Favre I think the ypc goes up. I'll stick with 88 catches, but increase to 12.9 ypc and 1133 yards and 9 TDs Only problem now is that the ADP will likely rise more than the stats.
Click to expand...
An interesting way of looking at it is........what WR's did he just go past now that Farve is at the helm. Who did he leapfrog that now you'd draft Coles but before you would have taken the other guy?
 
An interesting way of looking at it is........what WR's did he just go past now that Farve is at the helm. Who did he leapfrog that now you'd draft Coles but before you would have taken the other guy?

i leapfrogged him over santonio holmes, roddy white, and santana moss in PPR leagues.

 
Coles will essentially be Favre's Donald Driver. They are the same type of WRs. Coles has never been much of a TD scorer so I dont think its a major bump to his TD #s. I think Ill bump Cotchery's TDs a bit more. Anyway, Ill project

88, 1188, 6

 
I'm likeing Coles a lot right now. For his career (minus his rookie season) hes averaged 982/5, and thats with Testeverde, Pennington, Ramsey, Hasselbeck (Tim that is), Bollinger, and Clemens throwing him the ball (not to mention another half dozen names who appeared in one or two games with him). Hes used to adjusting to new QBs and hes produced even with these guys throwing him the ball, Favre should be a big step up for him.

 
All NYJ players get bumps; but Coles' PPR value takes a huge gain.

It was only 1 yr ago where coles had 89 Catches... I'm expecting atleast that many again. Coles is one of those tough WRs who have an incredible fight for the ball when its in the air.

90 Recs, 1100, 7 TDs

 
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