Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Reggie is a guy you need to move if you can, and I mean before the season starts or early into it. Here's why:
Reggie was the worst starting RB in the NFL last year and it wasn't even that close. When you consider everything and take it all into account, Reggie gave the least bang for your buck of any RB out there FROM AN NFL PERSPECTIVE. More on that later.
However, because he was very high draft pick and his team has a TON invested in him and had/have trouble going away from him to more effective players. He still had lots of opportunities last year and is likely to get a fair amount this year (for a while at least). He also had a HUGE amount of hype coming into the NFL and people love college highlights on youtube. So he still has value in the FF community because people feel like he will eventually turn it around, or that the team simply CAN'T go away from him.
CLASSIC sell high if you don't believe he will turn it around, even if his current value isn't at the "peak" you could have gotten for him. Sometimes you just have to cut your losses.
Back to Bush the NFL running back (and why I don't think he will turn it around). For those who are familiar with DVOA, Bush was the worst rusher in the NFL last year by that standard. Basically, it means that you consider down and distance, and the defense the back is facing, how did that back in that situation compared all of the other backs in the league is those SAME BASIC SITUATIONS. When you compile all of that, guys like LT, Westbrook, Barber, Addai, Peterson etc came out on top. Bush was dead last at -26.7%, meaning he got -26.7% fewer yards than the average back in the same situations. The three guys above him on the list, all around -20% were Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson, and Deshaun Foster. Yes, he was significantly worse than all three of those studs.
So we start there. But the comeback is always, "Yeah, but he's a threat to take it to the house so defenses have to plan for that.". The problem with that is that he DOESN'T take it to the house and everybody knows it at this point. His longest run last year? 22 yards. His longest reception? 25 yards. That's over 130 touches. Is the problem he can't break tackles? Is it that his vision is poor? Is his actual shake-and-bake not really as good as advertised? Dunno, don't care. "He's scaring defense and helping his team that way." just doesn't fly anymore.
The other thing you often hear (you used to hear it more, but even a lot of his supporters have backed off of this a bit), is that defenses are keying him. Huh? Why? It's not because he's burning them (stats tell you that). It's not because the passing game sucks (in fact, quite the opposite is true). So why would defenses go out of there way to game plan for the worst overall rusher in the NFL? For a while, you could kind of FAKE back up that statement with the THREAT of his big-play ability, but at this point, he really hasn't had any big plays in two years, so why would a team be afraid of it? He's not at USC anymore.
OK, so we know he gets less yards than he should by far and we know he isn't breaking big plays, so what are his true strengths? Ball security? Is he at least a sure thing when it comes to all-important turnover ratio? Uh-oh, you guessed it - he is THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE in fumbles per touch (or per carry, or however else you slice it). So not only is he not getting yards or scaring defenses, he's coughing the ball up.
"But WAIT, there is still hope! His RECEIVING is what saves him and gives value to his team!". OK, let's look at that. Going back to DVOA, but for receiving (as a RB) instead of rushing, surely he will stand out. Would you believe (probably not, based on the hype) that when you look at opportunities and compare him to other backs, Bush is below average as a receiver out of the backfield? He's not as bad at that as he is at running the ball, but he still FAR from outstanding. Has catch percentage is average at best. His YPC are terrible. DVOA isn't perfect here, but when you actually look at results (however you want to do that), Bush really isn't dominating through the air either. What DOES he have? Opportunities and lots of them. It's almost as if NO coaches are saying, well, Bush can't run, let's at least try to throw to him to see what we can get from him.
Now having gone through all that, the BIG question is this: Will NO continue to try to get Reggie the ball? Because if they DO, he will continue to put up decent fantasy stats if only because of the vast number of chances he gets. My belief is that his draft status and the team's investment in him will only carry him so far, and they will reach the breaking point with him fairly soon. That investment is big, and it IS hard for the team to basically just say, "hey - we blew it with that pick and we have to move on", but the rest of the team is too good to just let Bush drag them down forever.
Finally, to this point, it's REALLY hard to argue against the fact that Bush has been a very bad RB overall. But some folks will STILL say he's young and could still turn it around. And that is true. He IS young, and he does have a chance to do that because at SOME point he displayed a lot of talent. But really, what are the odds? How many backs have looked as bad as Bush has and then gone on to great (or even mediocre) careers? When I went back and looked around a little bit, the ONLY guy I noticed that started off very slowly and became a real force was Tiki Barber. So there is that hope. But even Tiki wasn't nearly AS bad, and he was one amongst a TON of guys who started bad and stayed bad, so the deck is stacked against you if you want to hang on to Bush.
So for my part, I have given up on him and I just got rid of him in the only league I had him. You can still get pretty nice value out of him right now. But if he gets truly BENCHED in the middle or near the end of this season, you will NEVER get anything substantial out of him. Take your lumps, find a lifeboat and get off of the Titantic, you will thank me later.
Reggie was the worst starting RB in the NFL last year and it wasn't even that close. When you consider everything and take it all into account, Reggie gave the least bang for your buck of any RB out there FROM AN NFL PERSPECTIVE. More on that later.
However, because he was very high draft pick and his team has a TON invested in him and had/have trouble going away from him to more effective players. He still had lots of opportunities last year and is likely to get a fair amount this year (for a while at least). He also had a HUGE amount of hype coming into the NFL and people love college highlights on youtube. So he still has value in the FF community because people feel like he will eventually turn it around, or that the team simply CAN'T go away from him.
CLASSIC sell high if you don't believe he will turn it around, even if his current value isn't at the "peak" you could have gotten for him. Sometimes you just have to cut your losses.
Back to Bush the NFL running back (and why I don't think he will turn it around). For those who are familiar with DVOA, Bush was the worst rusher in the NFL last year by that standard. Basically, it means that you consider down and distance, and the defense the back is facing, how did that back in that situation compared all of the other backs in the league is those SAME BASIC SITUATIONS. When you compile all of that, guys like LT, Westbrook, Barber, Addai, Peterson etc came out on top. Bush was dead last at -26.7%, meaning he got -26.7% fewer yards than the average back in the same situations. The three guys above him on the list, all around -20% were Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson, and Deshaun Foster. Yes, he was significantly worse than all three of those studs.
So we start there. But the comeback is always, "Yeah, but he's a threat to take it to the house so defenses have to plan for that.". The problem with that is that he DOESN'T take it to the house and everybody knows it at this point. His longest run last year? 22 yards. His longest reception? 25 yards. That's over 130 touches. Is the problem he can't break tackles? Is it that his vision is poor? Is his actual shake-and-bake not really as good as advertised? Dunno, don't care. "He's scaring defense and helping his team that way." just doesn't fly anymore.
The other thing you often hear (you used to hear it more, but even a lot of his supporters have backed off of this a bit), is that defenses are keying him. Huh? Why? It's not because he's burning them (stats tell you that). It's not because the passing game sucks (in fact, quite the opposite is true). So why would defenses go out of there way to game plan for the worst overall rusher in the NFL? For a while, you could kind of FAKE back up that statement with the THREAT of his big-play ability, but at this point, he really hasn't had any big plays in two years, so why would a team be afraid of it? He's not at USC anymore.
OK, so we know he gets less yards than he should by far and we know he isn't breaking big plays, so what are his true strengths? Ball security? Is he at least a sure thing when it comes to all-important turnover ratio? Uh-oh, you guessed it - he is THE WORST IN THE LEAGUE in fumbles per touch (or per carry, or however else you slice it). So not only is he not getting yards or scaring defenses, he's coughing the ball up.
"But WAIT, there is still hope! His RECEIVING is what saves him and gives value to his team!". OK, let's look at that. Going back to DVOA, but for receiving (as a RB) instead of rushing, surely he will stand out. Would you believe (probably not, based on the hype) that when you look at opportunities and compare him to other backs, Bush is below average as a receiver out of the backfield? He's not as bad at that as he is at running the ball, but he still FAR from outstanding. Has catch percentage is average at best. His YPC are terrible. DVOA isn't perfect here, but when you actually look at results (however you want to do that), Bush really isn't dominating through the air either. What DOES he have? Opportunities and lots of them. It's almost as if NO coaches are saying, well, Bush can't run, let's at least try to throw to him to see what we can get from him.
Now having gone through all that, the BIG question is this: Will NO continue to try to get Reggie the ball? Because if they DO, he will continue to put up decent fantasy stats if only because of the vast number of chances he gets. My belief is that his draft status and the team's investment in him will only carry him so far, and they will reach the breaking point with him fairly soon. That investment is big, and it IS hard for the team to basically just say, "hey - we blew it with that pick and we have to move on", but the rest of the team is too good to just let Bush drag them down forever.
Finally, to this point, it's REALLY hard to argue against the fact that Bush has been a very bad RB overall. But some folks will STILL say he's young and could still turn it around. And that is true. He IS young, and he does have a chance to do that because at SOME point he displayed a lot of talent. But really, what are the odds? How many backs have looked as bad as Bush has and then gone on to great (or even mediocre) careers? When I went back and looked around a little bit, the ONLY guy I noticed that started off very slowly and became a real force was Tiki Barber. So there is that hope. But even Tiki wasn't nearly AS bad, and he was one amongst a TON of guys who started bad and stayed bad, so the deck is stacked against you if you want to hang on to Bush.
So for my part, I have given up on him and I just got rid of him in the only league I had him. You can still get pretty nice value out of him right now. But if he gets truly BENCHED in the middle or near the end of this season, you will NEVER get anything substantial out of him. Take your lumps, find a lifeboat and get off of the Titantic, you will thank me later.
But seriously, I was really high on him...but it is fading little by little. I can not yet give up on a guy with all that talent. I kind of equate that to Oliver Perez of the Mets, he'll show you just enough to make you believe in him. If I were a betting man, I'd say you're more right than wrong OP.ETA: Crap, it was MoP that didn't do projections 
Nonetheless, my above comments are for non-PPR; PPR is a different ball of wax - plenty of value.
The believers are already jumping in.Also, part of the reason for my post is that Bush is still ranked as the #14 dynasty RB by the experts on this site. That's a #1 starter in larger leagues. There are a LOT of guys below him I'd rather have.
But seriously, I was really high on him...but it is fading little by little. I can not yet give up on a guy with all that talent. I kind of equate that to Oliver Perez of the Mets, he'll show you just enough to make you believe in him. If I were a betting man, I'd say you're more right than wrong OP.
Reggie Bush is not a guy you can just look at the final #'s and say he failed miserably. There are very legit explanations for what he put up. Weeks 1-3, the ENTIRE Saint's offense was off-track and the reason for all their trouble during those first 3 weeks (and even some into week 4) was the O-line. It simply was out of sync and not playing well at all. Brees had no time and there were no running lanes open at all. Everyone was down on Brees after those first 4 weeks until the O-line dramatically turned it around and gave him some time to throw. Not coincidentally, as KH points out above, Bush's #'s improved during his first stint as being the main ball carrier. While 4.2 ypc isn't earth-shattering, he also had 34 receptions for 207 yds and 2 TDs during those 5 weeks.
