Player Spotlight: Ben Watson (1 Viewer)

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ben Watson, TE, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Ben Watson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

One of the more overrated TEs of the last two years. 49/643/3 two years ago when he was hyped beyond belief and 36/389/6 last year when injured some. Surprising he didn't do more when Brady had such a tremendous year. 6/107/2 came in one game last year. Seemed to be ignored most of the rest of the year. Also had the injury issues. May play a bigger role this year, but that has become the mantra every year. Brady's numbers will likely revert to the mean. In 2008 I expect roughly 48/540/5.

Watson is pretty much a tease. He'll play great for a month and looks to finally have turned a corner, but he either gets hurt or disappears for several weeks at a time. He started last season with 5 TD in the first 5 games . . . and then could only muster one more TD the rest of the way. Injuries derailed what *COULD* have been the season that many had long expected. After the first month of the year, he was on track for 54-621-16. He was a key goal line threat, and while that projected TD total is insanely high, he could still have been a decent fantasy contributor.

He's actually been fairly productive when he plays (although certainly not up to the hype that some have been suggesting). He's averaged

3.4 receptions, 41 yards, and 0.36 TD per game over the past two seasons. That works out to 6.26 ppg or 100 fantasy points over a full season. Last year, that would have ranked as the #7 TE.

From what I can surmise, Marcus Pollard should not be a threat to Watson, and the Pats could easily replace Pollard with a bigger, younger, stronger blocking TE by the start of the season. IMO, Pollard is insurance should Watson struggle to return from off season ankle surgery.

Watson might make a decent buy low/draft low candidate, as many have already soured on him. I would expect similar maddening numbers from him this year, as he may not be 100% to start the season and may not be 100% at all the entire year. For those drafters that prefer to wait on taking a TE, they can do a lot worse than Watson (currently the #14 TE selected based on ADP).

Assuming he is healthy enough to start from Week One . . .

45-540-5

As a Patriots fan your love for Watson stems from his cross field rundown of Champ Bailey in that infamously poorly called (in Patriots land anyway) playoff game against Denver in 2006.

We can probably expect another prototypical sine wave season out of WATSON. Great highs followed by equal lows; and injuries, those nagging injuries that won't go away. I have been holding on to him for a couple of years waiting for his upside to consistently show up. The proof is in the pudding and its a lumpy soupy mess to be sure. Too many balls bouncing off his hands and chest for him to be counted on. Love his effort, hate his production.

Not a bad backup but can't trust him as a starter.

Sorry Ben......40/520/5

This is really a situation where his track record just cannot be ignored anymore...I still think pairing him with an LJ Smith in a best ball elague is somewhat interesting as you can get them much later and have a nice 1-2 punch if they are healthy.

Ministry of Pain said:

This is really a situation where his track record just cannot be ignored anymore...I still think pairing him with an LJ Smith in a best ball elague is somewhat interesting as you can get them much later and have a nice 1-2 punch if they are healthy.

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I was all set to give you a because I thought you were going to say both Watson and Smith seem better than they actually produce. No way I would want to team up these two teases together.

In his last three seasons, he has played 15, 13, and 12 games. He is coming off surgery. I think that as part of the high flying Patriots offense, he is hyped more than he is used. I doubt that he will be drafted by me. His current ADP is TE14 and 123 overall. In FBG scoring, he has finished 15th, 10th, abd 13th. Maybe if he could stay on the field he would provide value for the slot, but not for me. Alas, this might be the year.

Ben Watson 65 targets 40 catches 61.5% 480 yards 12.0 ypc 4 TDs

What do you guys thinks of Dave Thomas? I remember hearing that they wanted him to start producing....

David Yudkin said:

Watson is pretty much a tease. He'll play great for a month and looks to finally have turned a corner, but he either gets hurt or disappears for several weeks at a time. He started last season with 5 TD in the first 5 games . . . and then could only muster one more TD the rest of the way. Injuries derailed what *COULD* have been the season that many had long expected. After the first month of the year, he was on track for 54-621-16. He was a key goal line threat, and while that projected TD total is insanely high, he could still have been a decent fantasy contributor.He's actually been fairly productive when he plays (although certainly not up to the hype that some have been suggesting). He's averaged 3.4 receptions, 41 yards, and 0.36 TD per game over the past two seasons. That works out to 6.26 ppg or 100 fantasy points over a full season. Last year, that would have ranked as the #7 TE.From what I can surmise, Marcus Pollard should not be a threat to Watson, and the Pats could easily replace Pollard with a bigger, younger, stronger blocking TE by the start of the season. IMO, Pollard is insurance should Watson struggle to return from off season ankle surgery.Watson might make a decent buy low/draft low candidate, as many have already soured on him. I would expect similar maddening numbers from him this year, as he may not be 100% to start the season and may not be 100% at all the entire year. For those drafters that prefer to wait on taking a TE, they can do a lot worse than Watson (currently the #14 TE selected based on ADP).Assuming he is healthy enough to start from Week One . . .45-540-5

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Don't forget, a healthy Dave "I Don't Drop Footballs" Thomas should cut into his numbers as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson do more blocking this year, which he's allegedly improved upon.

AngryPatriot said:

What do you guys thinks of Dave Thomas? I remember hearing that they wanted him to start producing....

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I personally love Dave Thomas. Thought he was killer at UT and was stoked when the Pats grabbed him thinking they had their very own Dallas "Dagger in the Heart Catch" Clark. Unfortunately, injuries have obviously slowed him.But if he is healthy I look for him to be very involved and the Pats to run a lot of 2 TE sets. I'm not sure he's much more than a WW spot-starter in FF this year, but he'll make a difference on the field for NE.

If you really want to be tantalized, watch this amazing highlight real from Texas and try not to get excited about his prospects:

tombonneau said:

David Yudkin said:

Watson is pretty much a tease. He'll play great for a month and looks to finally have turned a corner, but he either gets hurt or disappears for several weeks at a time. He started last season with 5 TD in the first 5 games . . . and then could only muster one more TD the rest of the way. Injuries derailed what *COULD* have been the season that many had long expected. After the first month of the year, he was on track for 54-621-16. He was a key goal line threat, and while that projected TD total is insanely high, he could still have been a decent fantasy contributor.He's actually been fairly productive when he plays (although certainly not up to the hype that some have been suggesting). He's averaged 3.4 receptions, 41 yards, and 0.36 TD per game over the past two seasons. That works out to 6.26 ppg or 100 fantasy points over a full season. Last year, that would have ranked as the #7 TE.From what I can surmise, Marcus Pollard should not be a threat to Watson, and the Pats could easily replace Pollard with a bigger, younger, stronger blocking TE by the start of the season. IMO, Pollard is insurance should Watson struggle to return from off season ankle surgery.Watson might make a decent buy low/draft low candidate, as many have already soured on him. I would expect similar maddening numbers from him this year, as he may not be 100% to start the season and may not be 100% at all the entire year. For those drafters that prefer to wait on taking a TE, they can do a lot worse than Watson (currently the #14 TE selected based on ADP).Assuming he is healthy enough to start from Week One . . .45-540-5

Click to expand...

Don't forget, a healthy Dave "I Don't Drop Footballs" Thomas should cut into his numbers as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson do more blocking this year, which he's allegedly improved upon.

Click to expand...

Watson needs to learn health, if that's something that can be learned.

I traded for Watson in my dynasty league late in 2004 and thought I had a steal.

Sigh... showed so much promise. I have to believe if he couldn't do better than what he showed in 2007, then maybe this is as good as it gets. I tried trading him before my rookie draft earlier this year, valuing him around a TE10-12, and came up empty after a couple nibbles.

His stats last year were really bolstered by one game, versus the Browns 6-107-2, of his season stats of 36-389-6.

My 2008 projection is 42-500-5; he's capable of more, but not likely to get it based on his track record.

Ben Watson before he was injured last year was the No. 2 option for Brady behind Moss inside the 20. Tom Brady likes to go his way and if he's healthy to start the year, he can be counted on to be a quality Tight End by committee.

48 receptions for 550 yards and 6 td's

I was surpised to see so many people say he's overrated. The last few years everyone has sang his praises, and I felt like I was out of the loop because I didn't understand why. After another year of not being a top fantasy Tight end, people are finally putting him closer to his actual play.

He's never played a full 16 game season, the games have actually went down the last 3 years, from 15 to 13 to 12. I don't predict injuries, but it's something to keep him from being a projected top tight end. His Yards per reception have also dropped over the last 3 years...it's hard to think he's lost a step at 27, it's probably more so been due to the injuries.

He's got a great offense, not the best situation. He's probably the 3rd passing option at best right now, in an offense that's dishing out nearly 200 balls to the top 2 receivers. God forbid Chad Jackson become serviceable for them, and he slips to #4.

44 Receptions

445 Yards

4 TDs