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Player Spotlight: Ahman Green (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ahman Green, RB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Ahman Green Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Ahman might bounce back some this season. He's old though. I wouldn't select him until later or as a 4th RB. Maybe a 3rd depending on preseason. What he does have going for him is Gibbs. He's proven he can catch pretty well. He was always good in short yardage (when he didn't fumble) because he is a fundamentally sound back. He has power, speed, and runs with great pad height. He's the type of late pick that can save seasons.

200 carries. 820 yards. 6 touchdowns.

33 catches. 220 yards. 0 touchdowns.

potential to go for

300 carries - 1200 yards - 10 touchdown

45 catches - 350 - 2 touchdowns

(but not very likely)

 
Ahman Green when healthy is a productive back. He wasn't healthy much of last year and he is getting up there in age for starting running backs. He's the type of back where he can help you get off to a decent start to the season but probably won't be there when the season counts the most...at the end.

650 yards rushing, 5 td's with 34 receptions for 299 yards and 1 td

 
900 yds rushing 7 TDs, 30 catches, 200 yds, 1 TD.

Value player this year. Major injury risk but he can be had very late and could end up being a great #3 with #2 potential.

 
I don't think he makes it out of camp. If Slaton, Brown, Taylor, and Walker all make it through camp in one piece, I think Green gets cut, if he hasn't already been hurt.

Otherwise, if one of the other RB's gets hurt and Green doesn't, he goes:

140 - 530 - 3 (rush) and 24 - 195 - 0 (recv).

 
Bargain RB of the year.
I'll take the opposite side of that argument Jeff. :excited: I think there is reason for optimism out of the RBs in Houston this year, I just don't think Ahman Green is the guy. He has 10 years of heavy wear and tear and his knee injuries are ultimately going to be his downfall. He was supposedly healthy last year after sitting out a few games to rest his knee. He tried to come back and the knee just didn't agree with him. It could very well be possible that his knee is fully healed, but until I see that, I'm projecting low numbers for Green. In addition to his injury woes, the Texans have a list of RBs that could very easily carry the load. Chris Brown is a capable back, Darius Walker showed some promise and rookie Steve Slaton could be a big surprise in the Texans offense under new OL coach and running game expert, Alex Gibbs. Gibbs style caters to a one-cut slasher back like Slaton. Gibbs brought his Denver-style zone blocking system to Houston and IMO, Slaton is the best to fit that role. IMO, there are too many question marks surrounding Green. I believe it's just a matter of when, not if Ahman Green takes a back seat and eventually fades away from the league. I think the Texans running game will be one of the better running games in the league this year (possibly top 10), I foresee a lot of participation from all of the backs early on with one back eventually becoming the primary go-to back. I do not see that as Ahman Green. At best I see Green with 120 carries, 480 yards, 3 TD, 18 rec, 140 yards, 0 TD
 
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Bargain RB of the year.
I'll take the opposite side of that argument Jeff. :lol: I think there is reason for optimism out of the RBs in Houston this year, I just don't think Ahman Green is the guy. He has 10 years of heavy wear and tear and his knee injuries are ultimately going to be his downfall. He was supposedly healthy last year after sitting out a few games to rest his knee. He tried to come back and the knee just didn't agree with him. It could very well be possible that his knee is fully healed, but until I see that, I'm projecting low numbers for Green. In addition to his injury woes, the Texans have a list of RBs that could very easily carry the load. Chris Brown is a capable back, Darius Walker showed some promise and rookie Steve Slaton could be a big surprise in the Texans offense under new OL coach and running game expert, Alex Gibbs. Gibbs style caters to a one-cut slasher back like Slaton. Gibbs brought his Denver-style zone blocking system to Houston and IMO, Slaton is the best to fit that role. IMO, there are too many question marks surrounding Green. I believe it's just a matter of when, not if Ahman Green takes a back seat and eventually fades away from the league. I think the Texans running game will be one of the better running games in the league this year (possibly top 10), I foresee a lot of participation from all of the backs early on with one back eventually becoming the primary go-to back. I do not see that as Ahman Green. At best I see Green with 120 carries, 480 yards, 3 TD, 18 rec, 140 yards, 0 TD
He's the cheapest starter available by far. ADP is Round 8-9 or later.
He's reportedly 100% healthy, but sure - you should look to TC to see how healthy he really is.
He's been around the block and back - and he knows how to succeed and perform well in the NFL.
He's behind an upstart offensive line with a good one-cut scheme.
He's a part of an up and coming offensive team.
His defense is pretty good, so HOU won't be cutting out the ground game in the 4th quarter.
He plays on a good surface and in a domed (roof can close) stadium.Can he be a bust? Sure, but what RB can't blow up on you? I'll take the last starter that will probably break 800 / 6 in Round 9 all day long.

Projections have him all over the map, but his upside value (Top 25 RB) in Round 8 or 9 cannot be ignored. I mean Ron Dayne was cut because they believe Green's healthy, and Dayne had 773 / 6 last year.

I'll project him as the starter but not getting >60% of the work. Houston had ~1500 yards rushing last year, so I'll put him at 850 yards rushing on 215 carries (~4.0 YPC) with 6 TDs but few catches. Say 15 / 110 and 0 TDs there.

 
Ad for Green, he's missed 23 games over the past 3 seasons. That does not instill a lot of confidence in him being "healthy." either now or every week of the season.

If the Texans were so enamored with Green, why did they sign Chris Brown and draft Steve Slaton?

I think the more interesting question is who gets the workload should Green get nicked up again or be out for a chunk of games.

 
Bargain RB of the year.
I'll take the opposite side of that argument Jeff. :lmao: I think there is reason for optimism out of the RBs in Houston this year, I just don't think Ahman Green is the guy. He has 10 years of heavy wear and tear and his knee injuries are ultimately going to be his downfall. He was supposedly healthy last year after sitting out a few games to rest his knee. He tried to come back and the knee just didn't agree with him. It could very well be possible that his knee is fully healed, but until I see that, I'm projecting low numbers for Green. In addition to his injury woes, the Texans have a list of RBs that could very easily carry the load. Chris Brown is a capable back, Darius Walker showed some promise and rookie Steve Slaton could be a big surprise in the Texans offense under new OL coach and running game expert, Alex Gibbs. Gibbs style caters to a one-cut slasher back like Slaton. Gibbs brought his Denver-style zone blocking system to Houston and IMO, Slaton is the best to fit that role. IMO, there are too many question marks surrounding Green. I believe it's just a matter of when, not if Ahman Green takes a back seat and eventually fades away from the league. I think the Texans running game will be one of the better running games in the league this year (possibly top 10), I foresee a lot of participation from all of the backs early on with one back eventually becoming the primary go-to back. I do not see that as Ahman Green. At best I see Green with 120 carries, 480 yards, 3 TD, 18 rec, 140 yards, 0 TD
He's the cheapest starter available by far. ADP is Round 8-9 or later.
He's reportedly 100% healthy, but sure - you should look to TC to see how healthy he really is.
He's been around the block and back - and he knows how to succeed and perform well in the NFL.
He's behind an upstart offensive line with a good one-cut scheme.
He's a part of an up and coming offensive team.
His defense is pretty good, so HOU won't be cutting out the ground game in the 4th quarter.
He plays on a good surface and in a domed (roof can close) stadium.Can he be a bust? Sure, but what RB can't blow up on you? I'll take the last starter that will probably break 800 / 6 in Round 9 all day long.

Projections have him all over the map, but his upside value (Top 25 RB) in Round 8 or 9 cannot be ignored. I mean Ron Dayne was cut because they believe Green's healthy, and Dayne had 773 / 6 last year.

I'll project him as the starter but not getting >60% of the work. Houston had ~1500 yards rushing last year, so I'll put him at 850 yards rushing on 215 carries (~4.0 YPC) with 6 TDs but few catches. Say 15 / 110 and 0 TDs there.
Chris Brown has had some real good games over the years. He never quite got it altogether maybe due to injury, maybe because he just doesn't have 'it'. He CAN be very exciting. Did you see his 175 against Jax last year?The same exceptional coaches that have been mentioned here might be just what Brown needs.

I think he'll have the job before week 1

 
Ad for Green, he's missed 23 games over the past 3 seasons. That does not instill a lot of confidence in him being "healthy." either now or every week of the season.If the Texans were so enamored with Green, why did they sign Chris Brown and draft Steve Slaton?I think the more interesting question is who gets the workload should Green get nicked up again or be out for a chunk of games.
Green only completed 2 seasons I think. If you have Green you must have a good backup
 
Ad for Green, he's missed 23 games over the past 3 seasons. That does not instill a lot of confidence in him being "healthy." either now or every week of the season.If the Texans were so enamored with Green, why did they sign Chris Brown and draft Steve Slaton?I think the more interesting question is who gets the workload should Green get nicked up again or be out for a chunk of games.
Green only completed 2 seasons I think. If you have Green you must have a good backup
I own Green and Brown in a couple leagues, and am not counting on either (they are there for depth). Hurray for me if one or the other pans out, but I'm still not going to play them over the likes of ADP or Westbrook. I think we will see a similar situation to last year where the #1 guy varies from week to week, some guys will get nicked up, and this will end up in a lot of changes in the game plan and depth chart from week to week. You might be able to get a bye week fill in for cheap off of the waiver wire out of this situation.
 
Ad for Green, he's missed 23 games over the past 3 seasons. That does not instill a lot of confidence in him being "healthy." either now or every week of the season.If the Texans were so enamored with Green, why did they sign Chris Brown and draft Steve Slaton?I think the more interesting question is who gets the workload should Green get nicked up again or be out for a chunk of games.
Chris Brown was cheap insurance.Slaton is the 3rd down back and PPR threat.The point you're missing is that many expected the Texans to be more active in either FA (such as Turner) or draft a RB early (they passed on Mendenhall and wound up trading down). They had a shot at every RB but DMC and Stewart, yet they chose to wait until late in Rd 3).I'm telling you, Green is a value pick in Rounds 8-9. If you don't believe me, that's fine - but I doubt that there is a later pick who has a better shot at the #1 RB spot on their team as of today.
 
Reports may indicate he's healthy, but it's hard to believe he'll stay that way. In the last 3 seasons, he's played 25/48 games. Not exactly a guy that's going to take a pounding all 16 games.

They brought in Chris Brown, drafted Slaton,Chris Taylor is a decent back, and now there's talk of Benson coming there. Between injuries and competition it's hard for me to be high on Green and his opportunities in Houston this year.

The offense is on the cusp of goodness, after all their years of being mediocre. Defenses are mainly worried about Andre Johnson, so if Green can keep the job and stay healthy, he really could have a decent season.

188 Rushes

771 Yards

4 TDs

26 Receptions

205 Yards

1 TD

 
I don't get the "love" for Green (even given that it's with the caveats of being cheap etc), but to each their own. I might take a flyer on him for a buck in our auction league, but even then there are likely other guys I'll shoot for as my RB4.

 

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