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portis vs. LJ (1 Viewer)

R

red

Footballguy
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ?

almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs).

i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.

 
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ? almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs). i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
Click to expand...
To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game. Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms. I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
 
Portis is safer and LJ has a bigger upside. The difference maker will be the KC line (and to a lesser extent the KC QB situation), if they can be average it's LJ all the way, if they look as bad as last year Portis will be the better option...

 
Banger said:
Portis is safer and LJ has a bigger upside. The difference maker will be the KC line (and to a lesser extent the KC QB situation), if they can be average it's LJ all the way, if they look as bad as last year Portis will be the better option...
Click to expand...
Even with as poorly as the KC line was playing last year, LJ was STILL on pace for a top ten finish. And he hadn't even hit the easy part of his schedule.
 
Tatum Bell said:
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ?

almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs).

i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
Click to expand...
To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game.

Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms.

I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
Click to expand...
I understand your point here, but also understand that LJ didnt play until his junior year in college!! He only started 2 full seasons at PSU. He also did not start in high school until his soph or junior year either. So even though he entered the NFL at age 23, he only had 4 or 5 full seasons of football coming into the NFL.
 
Tatum Bell said:
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ?

almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs).

i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
Click to expand...
To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game.

Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms.

I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
Click to expand...
:wow: :shrug:

Portis is a stud, no doubt..but to compare LJ to Lendale White is just plain silly.. :)

 
Tanner9919 said:
Tatum Bell said:
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ?

almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs).

i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
Click to expand...
To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game.

Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms.

I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
Click to expand...
:wow: :cry:

Portis is a stud, no doubt..but to compare LJ to Lendale White is just plain silly.. :(
Click to expand...
I'm talking about year-end fantasy numbers in that comparison. Nothing more.
 
Tatum Bell said:
Tanner9919 said:
Tatum Bell said:
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ?

almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs).

i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
Click to expand...
To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game.

Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms.

I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
Click to expand...
:wow: :excited:

Portis is a stud, no doubt..but to compare LJ to Lendale White is just plain silly.. :banned:
Click to expand...
I'm talking about year-end fantasy numbers in that comparison. Nothing more.
Click to expand...
White is a dud, while LJ is a proven player..even with a so/so line, if he stays healthy ( only been injured once, and that was last season), he should easily rush for 1200+ yards and a dozen TD's..this IS Herm Edwards we're talking about here, along with Chan Gailey as OC..they know a thing or two about running the ball..There will be growing pains with Zorn in DC...Who is your Redskins QB ? You've lost a good DC in Gregg Williams, too..how much will that hurt the time of possession stat for 2008?

one more thing:

weeks 15/16, KC plays Dolphins and Bengals. Does it get any better than that?!

also, LJ plays in a defensively challenged division...the Chiefs have stomped all over the Raiders ( rushing) in recent years, they've also stomped all over the Broncos, and they can effectively and successfully run against SD as well..they also play the 'Aints and their horrific defense, the Jets can't stop anyone's running game - and , its Herm's old team - The Bills are improving, but they can be run on, I don't remember the Falcons or the Panthers being able to stop anyone's rushing offense last season,either..

with 6 games against Jax , Indy, Hou, Fatdale has his work cut out for him..

 
Tatum Bell said:
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ? almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs). i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
Click to expand...
To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game. Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms. I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
Click to expand...
Larry Johnson was on pace for a top ten finish last year. He had played the hardest part of his schedule. His line had played like crap.So if he had stayed healthy he would've likely finished right around where Portis finished for the year. Herm Edwards will run LJ into the ground. LJ, barring injury, is a fairly safe bet to finish in the top ten AND he certainly has #1 upside. You want to talk about being too old for the league? Portis is 26. LJ is 28. Portis has 1,710 career carries. LJ has 1,050 career carries. Portis has a reputation for being a burner. Last year his longest run was 32 yards. LJ? 54. In fact, since coming to the Redskins LJ has had 17 runs of 20+ yards. Since that same year (2004), LJ has had 34 runs of 20+ yards. Portis has played in 55 games while LJ has played in 50 games. Of course, truly elite rb's don't just score points by rushing - they catch the ball as well. Since becoming a Redskin, Portis has caught 134 passes for 1,010 yards. During that same time LJ has caught 126 passes for 1,217 yards. Of course let's not forget about the most important thing of all - Touchdowns! Portis has scored 36 touchdowns since the '04 season while LJ has grabbed a whopping 55 touchdowns. Last year Portis scored 11 td's while LJ scored 4. Considering LJ had missed all of camp, was looking better after shaking off rust in the first couple games and had played the hardest part of his schedule, I do not believe for one second it is a reach to say LJ would've scored about as many td's as Portis. If you want to drop LJ because of injury fears that's your call. But if he's healthy he's an absolute monster. People are forgetting that fact.
 
AnonymousBob said:
Tatum Bell said:
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ? almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs). i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
Click to expand...
To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game. Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms. I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
Click to expand...
Larry Johnson was on pace for a top ten finish last year. He had played the hardest part of his schedule. His line had played like crap.So if he had stayed healthy he would've likely finished right around where Portis finished for the year. Herm Edwards will run LJ into the ground. LJ, barring injury, is a fairly safe bet to finish in the top ten AND he certainly has #1 upside. You want to talk about being too old for the league? Portis is 26. LJ is 28. Portis has 1,710 career carries. LJ has 1,050 career carries. Portis has a reputation for being a burner. Last year his longest run was 32 yards. LJ? 54. In fact, since coming to the Redskins LJ has had 17 runs of 20+ yards. Since that same year (2004), LJ has had 34 runs of 20+ yards. Portis has played in 55 games while LJ has played in 50 games. Of course, truly elite rb's don't just score points by rushing - they catch the ball as well. Since becoming a Redskin, Portis has caught 134 passes for 1,010 yards. During that same time LJ has caught 126 passes for 1,217 yards. Of course let's not forget about the most important thing of all - Touchdowns! Portis has scored 36 touchdowns since the '04 season while LJ has grabbed a whopping 55 touchdowns. Last year Portis scored 11 td's while LJ scored 4. Considering LJ had missed all of camp, was looking better after shaking off rust in the first couple games and had played the hardest part of his schedule, I do not believe for one second it is a reach to say LJ would've scored about as many td's as Portis. If you want to drop LJ because of injury fears that's your call. But if he's healthy he's an absolute monster. People are forgetting that fact.
Click to expand...
This post really had me liking LJ until I realized it was not longer 2006. :eek:
 
jurb26 said:
This post really had me liking LJ until I realized it was not longer 2006. :lol:
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How about this? In 2007, terrible offensive line and awful qb, LJ was STILL on pace for a top ten finish. Despite playing for what was clearly an inferior team, LJ had more 20+ yard runs (5) in 8 games than Portis (3) had in 16. LJ was on pace to finish with the same amount of receiving yards and in 8 games LJ had scored a receiving touchdown. Portis, in 16 games scored 0. Through the first 8 games, Portis had accumulated 629 rushing yards and 156 receiving for 785 TOTAL yards.LJ, through the same period of time (start of the season until he got hurt), had accumulated 559 rushing yards and 186 receiving yards for 745 TOTAL yards.Portis had scored 6 touchdowns and LJ had scored 4. So...things were as bad as they could get in KC, yet Portis still only had 40 yards and 2 td's more? You don't fully recognize how stupid/dedicated to the run Herm Edwards is. He's going to run LJ into the ground.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Tatum Bell said:
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ?

almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs).

i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
Click to expand...
To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons.

First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game.

Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms.

I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
Click to expand...
Totally agree with the Red part. Don't agree much with the blue stuff.
 
AnonymousBob said:
jurb26 said:
This post really had me liking LJ until I realized it was not longer 2006. :confused:
Click to expand...
Through the first 8 games, Portis had accumulated 629 rushing yards and 156 receiving for 785 TOTAL yards.LJ, through the same period of time (start of the season until he got hurt), had accumulated 559 rushing yards and 186 receiving yards for 745 TOTAL yards.Portis had scored 6 touchdowns and LJ had scored 4. So...things were as bad as they could get in KC, yet Portis still only had 40 yards and 2 td's more?
Click to expand...
So what you're saying is through the first 8 games Portis was outperforming LJ? So you're saying extrapolated over 16 games, Portis scores 4 more TD's and 80 more yards from scrimmage.
 
This could change by the time the season starts, but if I was drafting today and faced the choice between LJ and Portis, I'd take Portis without even thinking about it much. I will have a better idea once training camp starts obviously, but right now I see Portis in a much better situation than LJ. KC is liable to be playing from behind in more games than Washington IMO. I see defenses taking the running game away from KC in the 2nd halves of games quite often.

 
Tatum Bell said:
First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game.
Click to expand...
Remember Norv Turner when he was the o-coordinator for the Niners? The chump that replaced him last year kept the same offense. He was just so incompetent he couldn't execute it in the same manner. Have the Redskins addressed the lack of o-line depth? I haven't kept up with that bit of news so homers please help me out here.A more opened up passing attack means fewer carries for the running game. Unless you expect the offense as a whole to score significantly more yards/points the passing yards will come at the EXPENSE of Portis and the rushing attack.
 
AnonymousBob said:
So...things were as bad as they could get in KC, yet Portis still only had 40 yards and 2 td's more? You don't fully recognize how stupid/dedicated to the run Herm Edwards is. He's going to run LJ into the ground.
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I understand how stubborn Edwards is and can be. The bottom line is the 1st portion of what I quoted. LJ, although seeing 20 more touches than Portis, was outperformed by Portis. Over a full season based on the numbers you sited from last year Portis would have been 80 yds and 4 TDs better. Also, you talk about how it was as bad as it could have possible gotten for LJ. What reason is there for us to believe it is improved? Because they drafted a few high potential rookies? Did you happen to see what happened to the Wash Oline last year. If that isn't as bad as things can get then I don't know what is.The thread wasn't about can LJ be a top 10 RB or not. It was who is a better pick, LJ or Portis. Even from your own data I think it shows that Portis is. Granted there is not much separation and LJ has top 10 potential.
 
AnonymousBob said:
jurb26 said:
This post really had me liking LJ until I realized it was not longer 2006. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
Through the first 8 games, Portis had accumulated 629 rushing yards and 156 receiving for 785 TOTAL yards.LJ, through the same period of time (start of the season until he got hurt), had accumulated 559 rushing yards and 186 receiving yards for 745 TOTAL yards.Portis had scored 6 touchdowns and LJ had scored 4. So...things were as bad as they could get in KC, yet Portis still only had 40 yards and 2 td's more?
Click to expand...
You mean the same first half of the season where they lost Jansen and Thomas in the first two games and were playing a UDFA rookie at RT and a guy who'd never played guard at RG? Regardless, with Gibbs gone the offense will be more opened up. Gibbs for whatever reason was extremely reluctant to fully entrust the offense to Campbell and they remained way too conservative. That will change.
 
suchislife said:
AnonymousBob said:
jurb26 said:
This post really had me liking LJ until I realized it was not longer 2006. :thumbdown:
Click to expand...
Through the first 8 games, Portis had accumulated 629 rushing yards and 156 receiving for 785 TOTAL yards.LJ, through the same period of time (start of the season until he got hurt), had accumulated 559 rushing yards and 186 receiving yards for 745 TOTAL yards.Portis had scored 6 touchdowns and LJ had scored 4. So...things were as bad as they could get in KC, yet Portis still only had 40 yards and 2 td's more?
Click to expand...
So what you're saying is through the first 8 games Portis was outperforming LJ? So you're saying extrapolated over 16 games, Portis scores 4 more TD's and 80 more yards from scrimmage.
Click to expand...
You could take it that way. You could also see that Portis had a very good year while LJ did not. An average year by LJ = a good year by Portis. You could realize that LJ had held out for all of TC and the o-line was a complete and total mess. Last year is LJ's floor. His ceiling is much, much higher than anything Portis will give you.I don't disagree that Portis is likely the safer of the two choices. But imo LJ is the way to go.
 
jurb26 said:
AnonymousBob said:
So...things were as bad as they could get in KC, yet Portis still only had 40 yards and 2 td's more? You don't fully recognize how stupid/dedicated to the run Herm Edwards is. He's going to run LJ into the ground.
Click to expand...
I understand how stubborn Edwards is and can be. The bottom line is the 1st portion of what I quoted. LJ, although seeing 20 more touches than Portis, was outperformed by Portis. Over a full season based on the numbers you sited from last year Portis would have been 80 yds and 4 TDs better. Also, you talk about how it was as bad as it could have possible gotten for LJ. What reason is there for us to believe it is improved? Because they drafted a few high potential rookies? Did you happen to see what happened to the Wash Oline last year. If that isn't as bad as things can get then I don't know what is.The thread wasn't about can LJ be a top 10 RB or not. It was who is a better pick, LJ or Portis. Even from your own data I think it shows that Portis is. Granted there is not much separation and LJ has top 10 potential.
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:goodposting: LJohnson was on pace for 1490 yds from scrimmage with 8 total TDs. Portis' actual numbers were 1651 yds from scrimmage and 11 TDs (plus 1 passing TD).
 
AnonymousBob said:
Tatum Bell said:
red said:
for those drafting towards the end of round 1 and fully intending to go RB, what will you do if faced with this dilemma: portis vs LJ?

almost every mag or cheatsheet has these guys as back to back (i.e. RB8 and RB9). i know clinton is steady, but the new HC and OC worry me. LJ is also a workhorse, but plays on a worse team (albeit, one that is on an upswing) with a worse line. however, the way i see it: more high risk, high reward with LJ (i.e. higher ceiling 20 vs 14 TDs, say; but lower floor, 6 vs. 9 TDs).

i'm curious what the pool thinks about these two. i don't mean this as a WSID, but more of a learned discussion on two very similar situations: workhorse RBs who have a injury history and are in systems which will affect their performance.
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To me it's Portis, and it's not that difficult of a choice. This is for a couple of reasons. First, Zorn is keeping the running game from the Gibbs regime intact. Same terminology, same plays, same blocking scheme, everything. They even have o-line coach Joe Bugel back, and all of their linemen are back and healthy (so far :fingerscrossed:). That fact, combined with what promises to be a far more opened up passing attack means IMHO better running lanes and opportunities. Portis is also past the point in his career where they're going to worry at all about preserving him. They're going to ride him as they get Campbell and the passing game up and running. This could well end up being Portis' best year as a Redskin, taking into account yards, TD's and ypa. Also, Portis figures to be used even more heavily in the passing game.

Second, I'm not a believer in LJ. He's a "big back" and I always worry once those guys start to show signs of decline. He's older than his NFL experience, having entered the league at 23 rather than at 21 like so many elite backs. Those concerns about him plus his o-line's and QB's problems have me believing that he's no better than another Lendale White in fantasy terms.

I recognize that I'm more down on LJ than many, and also that I'm a Redskins homer, but that's my read on this.
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Larry Johnson was on pace for a top ten finish last year. had he not gotten hurt He had played the hardest part of his schedule and couldn't take the pounding. His line had played like crap. only difference is a rookie they drafted this year, they will still be badSo if GOD that is a loaded word, he is only a year older, I don't know why he would start getting healthier now he had stayed healthy he would've likely finished right around still behind where Portis finished for the year. with a hurt oline

Herm Edwards will run LJ into the ground and again he won't be able to take the pounding. LJ, barring injury even though it's a guaranteee is a fairly safe bet to finish in the top ten AND he certainly has #1 upside. eventhough he never has been #1 with a great oline, great fb and a great offensive coordinator no whe has none of those

You want to talk about being too old for the league? Portis is 26.younger last time i looked LJ is 28. Portis has 1,710 career carries. LJ has 1,050 career carries. in that time Portis has taken half the big shots LJ has takenPortis has a reputation for being a burner. Last year his longest run was 32 yards. LJ? 54. In fact, since coming to the Redskins LJ has had 17 runs of 20+ yards. Since that same year (2004), LJ has had 34 runs of 20+ yards. Portis has played in 55 games while LJ has played in 50 games. becaus ePortis is durable and LJ is a working fractureOf course, truly elite rb's don't just score points by rushing - they catch the ball as well. Since becoming a Redskin, Portis has caught 134 passes for 1,010 yards. During that same time LJ has caught 126 passes for 1,217 yards.

Of course let's not forget about the most important thing of all - Touchdowns! Portis has scored 36 touchdowns since the '04 season while LJ has grabbed a whopping 55 touchdowns. the 40 in 2 years with a GREAT oline really skew thsoe #'s consider it was 4 years ago. Hell would you rather have Priest Holmes as well. Last year Portis scored 11 td's while LJ scored 4. Considering LJ had missed all of camp, was looking better after shaking off rust in the first couple games and had played the hardest part of his schedule, I do not believe for one second it is a reach to say LJ would've scored about as many td's as Portis. went from scoring every other game to all of a sudden scoring every game.....interesting and that is based on what theory again :unsure: If you want to drop LJ because of injury fears that's your call. But if he's healthy he's an absolute monster. People are forgetting that fact......that he has had nagging injuries lately and now plays on a horrible team and is getting close to the dredded 30 year old mark.
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Tatum Bell said:
Regardless, with Gibbs gone the offense will be more opened up. Gibbs for whatever reason was extremely reluctant to fully entrust the offense to Campbell and they remained way too conservative. That will change.
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The Redskins averaged over 31 rushing attempts per game. That ranked them fifth in the entire NFL.The Chiefs averaged 23.9 rushing attempts per game. That ranked them 30th in the entire NFL.I really don't see the Redskins rushing for more than they did last season...and if they open up the offense that means Portis may become more productive but it also means he's going to receive fewer touches (unless you see the Skins scoring significantly more points).
 
Hey Blackjacks, how is Portis this durable rb while LJ is suddenly some kind of injury concern?

There's a lot of valid points being made but LJ being more of an injury risk compared to the durable Portis??? Clinton's injury risk is more of a myth than anything else but he's been dinged up more than LJ, including 2006 when he missed 8 games.

LJ is 28. That's closer to 30 than Portis (26) but I see no reason whatsoever to be fearful of the mythological age of 30 (even though the age of breakdown appears to be closer to 32 than it does to 30).

Edit - Now I understand. You saw that LJ only started 50 games since 2004 and assumed he had been hurt. Two words why he didn't start more games: Priest Holmes.

 
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Good comparison for these two. Right in that group around RB8-RB12.

In non-PPR they are very similar; I'd give Portis a slight advantage in PPR. Also agree with the OP that LJ is the bigger boom/bust pick. Given those choices, I'd take Portis as his floor should still be RB1 (barring injury) whereas LJ could drop to mid/late RB2 (lack of TDs mostly).

I'd actually hope I could grab both of them (after this tier, things at RB get dicier), which would lead me to likely take Portis first and hope LJ made it back.

 
I would go with Portis over LJ. Simply, Portis is playing for a HC that is going to utilize him extensively in the offense compared to Gibbs. Other than Betts, Portis has no true competition for carries or playing every down.

As for LJ, his foot bothers me...being a running back, those things can creep up out of nowhere, even if the docs say it is fully healed...also, Edwards made it clear that Smith and Charles will see time on the field and could cut into LJ's numbers.

Also, KC has a QB dilemma it needs to get straightened out...while Campbell is the guy in Washington.

 
jaybebo said:
I would go with Portis over LJ. Simply, Portis is playing for a HC that is going to utilize him extensively in the offense compared to Gibbs. Other than Betts, Portis has no true competition for carries or playing every down.As for LJ, his foot bothers me...being a running back, those things can creep up out of nowhere, even if the docs say it is fully healed...also, Edwards made it clear that Smith and Charles will see time on the field and could cut into LJ's numbers.Also, KC has a QB dilemma it needs to get straightened out...while Campbell is the guy in Washington.
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The Redskins were 5th in rushing attempts last year. They utilized Portis extensively last year. How many rookie wr's and te's did this team draft? The team drafted Campbell in the first round and they just drafted a lot of weapons for him to play with. Whereas the Chiefs have no choice but to run the entire offense through LJ.So Portis has a proven threat while LJ has the threat of maybe? Herm rarely used LaMont Jordan when he had Curtis...I see no reason to think he's going to start leaning on Kolby Smith when he has LJ. That's just not his style. He runs one guy into the ground. And despite the fact doctors say LJ is totally healed, you're still concerned about his foot? Yet you ignore Portis' knee??? I'm at a loss to understand your line of thinking.
 
AnonymousBob said:
jaybebo said:
I would go with Portis over LJ. Simply, Portis is playing for a HC that is going to utilize him extensively in the offense compared to Gibbs. Other than Betts, Portis has no true competition for carries or playing every down.As for LJ, his foot bothers me...being a running back, those things can creep up out of nowhere, even if the docs say it is fully healed...also, Edwards made it clear that Smith and Charles will see time on the field and could cut into LJ's numbers.Also, KC has a QB dilemma it needs to get straightened out...while Campbell is the guy in Washington.
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The Redskins were 5th in rushing attempts last year. They utilized Portis extensively last year. How many rookie wr's and te's did this team draft? The team drafted Campbell in the first round and they just drafted a lot of weapons for him to play with. Whereas the Chiefs have no choice but to run the entire offense through LJ.So Portis has a proven threat while LJ has the threat of maybe? Herm rarely used LaMont Jordan when he had Curtis...I see no reason to think he's going to start leaning on Kolby Smith when he has LJ. That's just not his style. He runs one guy into the ground. And despite the fact doctors say LJ is totally healed, you're still concerned about his foot? Yet you ignore Portis' knee??? I'm at a loss to understand your line of thinking.
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I think we get it now...you like LJ over Portis...
 
jaybebo said:
AnonymousBob said:
jaybebo said:
I would go with Portis over LJ. Simply, Portis is playing for a HC that is going to utilize him extensively in the offense compared to Gibbs. Other than Betts, Portis has no true competition for carries or playing every down.

As for LJ, his foot bothers me...being a running back, those things can creep up out of nowhere, even if the docs say it is fully healed...also, Edwards made it clear that Smith and Charles will see time on the field and could cut into LJ's numbers.

Also, KC has a QB dilemma it needs to get straightened out...while Campbell is the guy in Washington.
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The Redskins were 5th in rushing attempts last year. They utilized Portis extensively last year. How many rookie wr's and te's did this team draft? The team drafted Campbell in the first round and they just drafted a lot of weapons for him to play with. Whereas the Chiefs have no choice but to run the entire offense through LJ.So Portis has a proven threat while LJ has the threat of maybe? Herm rarely used LaMont Jordan when he had Curtis...I see no reason to think he's going to start leaning on Kolby Smith when he has LJ. That's just not his style. He runs one guy into the ground.

And despite the fact doctors say LJ is totally healed, you're still concerned about his foot? Yet you ignore Portis' knee??? I'm at a loss to understand your line of thinking.
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I think we get it now...you like LJ over Portis...
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Have you not read this thread? I admitted in my first post I like LJ over Portis. I also said Portis is the safer pick.Many, many good points have been made in this thread. But your reasoning was downright nonsensical.

Let's take another look at what you posted.

I would go with Portis over LJ. Simply, Portis is playing for a HC that is going to utilize him extensively in the offense compared to Gibbs.
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They utilized Portis lots last year. They may use him in a different way or the same way but I really don't envision them using him more. He had 372 touches. That's a lot. In fact he lead the league in rushing attempts. He had a career high 47 receptions. I'm not saying that number is necessarily going to decrease - I just don't see it INCREASING. So I'm not sure how they now have "a HC that is going to utilize him extensively in the offense compared to Gibbs." Because Gibbs (Saunders, really) DID utilize him.

Other than Betts, Portis has no true competition for carries or playing every down.
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So...uhm...aside from Elway's two Super Bowl rings he's never won the Super Bowl. Seems silly, doesn't it?
As for LJ, his foot bothers me...being a running back, those things can creep up out of nowhere, even if the docs say it is fully healed...
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And knees can't creep up? Portis has had problems with his knee. LJ had a broken foot. A knee injury is just as likely to "creep up out of nowhere" for Portis.
also, Edwards made it clear that Smith and Charles will see time on the field and could cut into LJ's numbers.
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And the latest Denver rb has made it clear he's going to rush for 2,000 yards. Whitner has made i clear he's guaranteed the Bills to make the playoffs. Players and coaches all say things this time of year. Herm Edwards uses one guy and he runs that one guy into the ground.
Also, KC has a QB dilemma it needs to get straightened out...while Campbell is the guy in Washington.
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And your point here would be what? That Campbell is some stud? His qb rating last year was 77.6 Croyle, in his first year 69.9Jason looked better but I don't know that either qb looked studly. But what does that matter? We're arguing which turd stinks less. LJ doesn't need a good qb to run the ball and neither does Portis.

 
AnonymousBob said:
Hey Blackjacks, how is Portis this durable rb while LJ is suddenly some kind of injury concern?There's a lot of valid points being made but LJ being more of an injury risk compared to the durable Portis??? Clinton's injury risk is more of a myth than anything else but he's been dinged up more than LJ, including 2006 when he missed 8 games.LJ is 28. That's closer to 30 than Portis (26) but I see no reason whatsoever to be fearful of the mythological age of 30 (even though the age of breakdown appears to be closer to 32 than it does to 30).Edit - Now I understand. You saw that LJ only started 50 games since 2004 and assumed he had been hurt. Two words why he didn't start more games: Priest Holmes.
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Come on Abonymous Bob, would you feel safer saying Portis or LJ will play all 16 games this year. When I make that comment I giggle alittle bit actually. LJ is a big powerful rb who has shelled out and recieved alot of big hits over the last 4 years and has been overworked in my opinion. CP is a more complete inside outside back and while he isn't afraid to take a hit or give a big block I definetly would say his body hasn't recieved th punishment LJ's has and while he carries the load is handled alittle more reasonably by his coaches. Also the most alarming thing about LJ is his ypc over the last three years. His #'s have decreased from 5.2 to 4.3 to 3.5. You have got to see the Chiefs go down as a team and LJ follow their lead.While you can easily Portis's #'s have decreased over the past three years, which would be correct, just not at the alarming rate.Portis, IMO, is a much safer pick with a higher upside and a lower ceiling. Heis all around a much better pick than LJ. For the second straight year I will not have LJ in my top 15 and will avoid him like the plague.
 
I actually think that in some drafts you might be able to snag both at the turn. If I HAD to make a choice, I'd go LJ, but I wouldn't be sure.

 
Chiefs will be playing from behind a lot this coming year. Their defense, while better, doesn't scare many o-coordinators.

Skins will be in many more games than the Chiefs will, so it goes without saying they should be running the ball more. Now they do have Betts to give Portis a breather, which is a very good thing.

Chiefs have who? Charles? Unproven. LJ, while I don't consider him an injury risk will not see the YPA that Portis will.

If I'm picking, I'm taking Portis this year. Give the Chiefs o-line some time to get better, give their defense the same and maybe it's a different story.

2008 it's Portis.

Mud

 
Blackjacks said:
Come on Abonymous Bob, would you feel safer saying Portis or LJ will play all 16 games this year. When I make that comment I giggle alittle bit actually. LJ is a big powerful rb who has shelled out and recieved alot of big hits over the last 4 years and has been overworked in my opinion. CP is a more complete inside outside back and while he isn't afraid to take a hit or give a big block I definetly would say his body hasn't recieved th punishment LJ's has and while he carries the load is handled alittle more reasonably by his coaches.

Also the most alarming thing about LJ is his ypc over the last three years. His #'s have decreased from 5.2 to 4.3 to 3.5. You have got to see the Chiefs go down as a team and LJ follow their lead.

While you can easily Portis's #'s have decreased over the past three years, which would be correct, just not at the alarming rate.

Portis, IMO, is a much safer pick with a higher upside and a lower ceiling. Heis all around a much better pick than LJ.

For the second straight year I will not have LJ in my top 15 and will avoid him like the plague.
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I wouldn't bet on ANY rb playing all 16 games simply due to the nature of things. But if I had to choose between the two I'd put my money on LJ staying healthy. LJ would've likely had a higher ypc than 3.5 last season as Minnesota/Jacksonvilled absolutely murdered his average and his schedule on got easier. But let's ignore that fact - do you think LJ's ypc will continue to decrease? Will he finish this year with a ypc of 2.6??? I don't understand why you can say it's alarming LJ has decreased yet you don't find Portis' decrease bothersome? What is an acceptable level of decrease that won't worry you?

Does the fact Portis has not had a run of 40+ yards in two seasons worry you? Are you worried because Portis had only 3 runs of 20+? Does the fact Portis had the second worse ypc of his career in 2007 catch your attention? Are you concerned because RON DAYNE had more 20+ yard runs in 13 games than Portis had in 16? Are you fretting the fact Shaun Alexander also played in only 13 games yet also had more 20+ yard runs? None of this is alarming?

You really want to talk about taking a pounding??? Portis has had 700+ more carries than LJ. Shouldn't that be a stat to mull over?

And a higher ceiling/lower floor? If LJ had stayed healthy he was bound for a top 10 finish. And he was having a terrible year!!! Top 10 is a guy's floor?!?!! Anybody who remembers 2006 or 2005 knows LJ's upside. Those are numbers Portis hasn't even sniffed since leaving Denver.

Did you actually predict LJ to go down with an injury last year? If so, congratulations - what was your reasoning? If not, your refusal to put him in the top 15 was crazy.

I want to make things very clear - I believe Portis is a stud. I believe Portis is a value player. But LJ is absolutely the better of the two backs. His downside is top ten. That's insane.

 
Dulymus Mudhounds said:
Chiefs will be playing from behind a lot this coming year. Their defense, while better, doesn't scare many o-coordinators.Skins will be in many more games than the Chiefs will, so it goes without saying they should be running the ball more. Now they do have Betts to give Portis a breather, which is a very good thing.Chiefs have who? Charles? Unproven. LJ, while I don't consider him an injury risk will not see the YPA that Portis will. If I'm picking, I'm taking Portis this year. Give the Chiefs o-line some time to get better, give their defense the same and maybe it's a different story. 2008 it's Portis.Mud
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LJ will get the ball one way or another. Rushing or receiving. If they're ahead he'll carry. If they're behind he'll catch. Which is why he had 30 receptions in 8 games last year.
 
AnonymousBob said:
Blackjacks said:
Come on Abonymous Bob, would you feel safer saying Portis or LJ will play all 16 games this year. When I make that comment I giggle alittle bit actually. LJ is a big powerful rb who has shelled out and recieved alot of big hits over the last 4 years and has been overworked in my opinion. CP is a more complete inside outside back and while he isn't afraid to take a hit or give a big block I definetly would say his body hasn't recieved th punishment LJ's has and while he carries the load is handled alittle more reasonably by his coaches.

Also the most alarming thing about LJ is his ypc over the last three years. His #'s have decreased from 5.2 to 4.3 to 3.5. You have got to see the Chiefs go down as a team and LJ follow their lead.

While you can easily Portis's #'s have decreased over the past three years, which would be correct, just not at the alarming rate.

Portis, IMO, is a much safer pick with a higher upside and a lower ceiling. Heis all around a much better pick than LJ.

For the second straight year I will not have LJ in my top 15 and will avoid him like the plague.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't bet on ANY rb playing all 16 games simply due to the nature of things. But if I had to choose between the two I'd put my money on LJ staying healthy. LJ would've likely had a higher ypc than 3.5 last season as Minnesota/Jacksonvilled absolutely murdered his average and his schedule on got easier. But let's ignore that fact - do you think LJ's ypc will continue to decrease? Will he finish this year with a ypc of 2.6??? I don't understand why you can say it's alarming LJ has decreased yet you don't find Portis' decrease bothersome? What is an acceptable level of decrease that won't worry you?

Does the fact Portis has not had a run of 40+ yards in two seasons worry you? Are you worried because Portis had only 3 runs of 20+? Does the fact Portis had the second worse ypc of his career in 2007 catch your attention? Are you concerned because RON DAYNE had more 20+ yard runs in 13 games than Portis had in 16? Are you fretting the fact Shaun Alexander also played in only 13 games yet also had more 20+ yard runs? None of this is alarming?

You really want to talk about taking a pounding??? Portis has had 700+ more carries than LJ. Shouldn't that be a stat to mull over?

And a higher ceiling/lower floor? If LJ had stayed healthy he was bound for a top 10 finish. And he was having a terrible year!!! Top 10 is a guy's floor?!?!! Anybody who remembers 2006 or 2005 knows LJ's upside. Those are numbers Portis hasn't even sniffed since leaving Denver.

Did you actually predict LJ to go down with an injury last year? If so, congratulations - what was your reasoning? If not, your refusal to put him in the top 15 was crazy.

I want to make things very clear - I believe Portis is a stud. I believe Portis is a value player. But LJ is absolutely the better of the two backs. His downside is top ten. That's insane.
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check out this Player Spotlight thread on LJ last year and you tell me if I nailed it or nothttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;hl=blackjacks

 
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It's close, but it's Portis for me. I just don't think LJ is ever going to get back to super stud status. The O-Line that propelled him to those back to back 1700 yard rushing seasons is as long gone as Portis' Denver dominance. So that puts these guys in the same category in my mind: aging talented players who will be the centerpiece of a questionable offense. Given that, I'll go with the guy who has shown over the course of the last four seasons that he can produce in that situation.

 
To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.

 
puckalicious said:
To me it is safe to assume LJ will do better than last year, and Portis will not. Assuming both are healthy all season, which is reasonable, I see LJ's downside as bottom of the top 10, and Portis' upside as the bottom of the top 10.

That tells me all I need to know when drafting at the bottom of the first round.
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Why is that safe to assume?
 
Those counting on LJ this year truly do not know the severity of the injury he had last year. Don't let the whole "oh he may return week 15 or 16" fool you. It was MUCH more serious than the whole team led on. Nothign that will keep him out of this year to start, but it's definitley something that can hamper him all season long, or slow him down

I said this way back at the end of the season and I'll say it now- LJ's time in the top 10 of RBs is OVER. Coming from a physical therapist perspective, I will completely avoid him this year. He will be the biggest disappointment in fantasy this year if people are still taking him round 1, or even as their #1 RB.

Not to mention the fact that the offense he's in is in shambles and there's a different coach.... those alone should make you run away as fast as you can from him. Put his injury up there and he's on my AVOID list this draft... although I did trade him this offseason to a team who will probably keep him

EDIT:

To add on:

Edwards says that second-year RB Kolby Smith and rookie RB Jamaal Charles will factor into Kansas City's running game. "He knows he's going to get the ball. ... He's going to touch it a lot, but those other guys are going to touch it some, too. Larry is not going to carry the ball 40 times (per game). He'll be lucky to get 30." Edwards envisions Charles getting 10-to-12 touches per game and Smith having a role as well.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/players/playerpage/396164

LJ is not AP. He cannot run for 100+ yards with someone taking 1/3 of his carries.

 
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