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Draft strategy: TE position (1 Viewer)

podunker

podunker

Footballguy
After several drafts so far this season, i'm convinced that taking a TE late this year is the way to go. We all know Witten, Gates, Gonzo etc. are studs, but you pay a heavy price to take them. When your taking them the other owners are picking WR2's and RB2's and RB3's. Some are taking the last of the top six QB's. Then you see who is available in round eight and beyond and your kicking yourself for not taking Edge or Boldin in that fourth round. It is unbelievable the value that is falling at the TE position after the eighth round. Two players in particular have been top 5 guys for a few years now, but for some reason people have given up on them. Todd Heap and Jeremy Shockey are going the eigth and ninth rounds right now. Now that is tremendous value with two guys that could easily finish in the top the sixth to three range. Those two guys should be on every sharks list to grab. Let all the guppies buy into the bad blood in NY, and the young QB and injury problems in Baltimore. JUST FREAKIN DRAFT THEM!

Ok, let's say you still don't jump on those two studs. In round 10 you can get Crumpler who will be Vince Young's go to guy in Tenn. They didn't bring him in to block. Another guy that has fell from grace is Watson, he can be had in round 11. He has averaged top 12 ppg the last two years, all while fighting injury. With Stallworth gone, and more focus on Moss and Welker, I see him improving. Finally, L. J. Smith is not going in drafts until the 14 round. There is no doubt in my mind if he is healthy, which all indication is that he is, he will finish top 12 in that pass happy offense. Owners have forgotten about him because he was injured all last year. Target him as your second TE and you'll be set for the season.

Consider yourself warned! TAKE SHOCKEY IN ROUND 8 OR 9 AND DON'T LOOK BACK!!!!!!

 
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I'd add Heath Miller to the list of guys you can get in rounds 7-10. He's still so young, and coming out of UVA was a first rounder. I see him continuing to improve. 700 yards and 7 TDs isn't bad in the 8th round.

 
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.

 
I would wait until round 10 to 12 to pick a TE.

In most mocks I made so far one of those guys like Watson, Heap or Owens are available. Sometimes even Vernon Davis was available in round 10.

If you wait two or three rounds (13 - 14) more you still can get guys like LJ Smith, Scheffler, Lee or Zach Miller, also not bad choices on the TE position.

 
UW72 said:
I would wait until round 10 to 12 to pick a TE.In most mocks I made so far one of those guys like Watson, Heap or Owens are available. Sometimes even Vernon Davis was available in round 10.If you wait two or three rounds (13 - 14) more you still can get guys like LJ Smith, Scheffler, Lee or Zach Miller, also not bad choices on the TE position.
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In a league I drafted recently . . .Watson 12Heap 7Daniels 9Davis 11Smith 16Scheffler 10Lee 18ZMiller 13Last year there were 6 guys that scored 120 points at the TE spot. Some of the guys on this list could be light years away from that, so while they may be ok and produce better than expected, they could still be liabilities when compared to the top tier of TEs.
 
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
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Gonzalez and Owens mirror each other in that they are vastly undervalued in dynasty due to their age. Owners seemingly fail to see that these guys take care of their bodies more than the average player, and on top of that are super talented. From a redraft perspective, I have no clue why anyone would take Cooley over Gonzalez in a redraft, which I have consistently seen this offseason.Edit to add: McMichael is the late steal this offseason. His numbers should mirror Cooley's, minus the TDs, and you can get him 7-9 rounds later.
 
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I always take TE later -- Witten was a later round pick last year (7-8, I think) if you recall.

Shockey is probably a decent pick; he needs to show they play better WITH him.

There were two mentions of Owens in this thread. Who is this? : :thumbup:

 
Mystery Achiever said:
I always take TE later -- Witten was a later round pick last year (7-8, I think) if you recall.Shockey is probably a decent pick; he needs to show they play better WITH him. There were two mentions of Owens in this thread. Who is this? : :bs:
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One guy was referring to Owen Daniels, the other guy was referring to Terrell Owens superb conditioning and comparing him to Gonzalez. :bs:
 
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
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:goodposting: Normally I'm an advocate of taking a TE early (last year I drafted in the first three rounds FWP, Gates, Portis, for example) but there's so much depth at that position now that you're no longer screwed if you end up with the 4th or lower TE. The position is greatly changed from the way it was a decade ago.
 
podunker said:
...Consider yourself warned! TAKE SHOCKEY IN ROUND 8 OR 9 AND DON'T LOOK BACK!!!!!!
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maybe, but if personally, if I don't get Witten, Gates, or Gonzo at very good values, I'm taking Scheffler. Let's see, his best friend is the QB, he's easily the #2 option behind a guy who has issues, and he was one of the best TEs in the 2nd half of last season. Mark my words, he is a top 5 TE this year, maybe top 3 behind Witten and Gates - yet he goes 7 rounds later? :popcorn:
 
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FUBAR said:
podunker said:
...Consider yourself warned! TAKE SHOCKEY IN ROUND 8 OR 9 AND DON'T LOOK BACK!!!!!!
Click to expand...
maybe, but if personally, if I don't get Witten, Gates, or Gonzo at very good values, I'm taking Scheffler. Let's see, his best friend is the QB, he's easily the #2 option behind a guy who has issues, and he was one of the best TEs in the 2nd half of last season. Mark my words, he is a top 5 TE this year, maybe top 3 behind Witten and Gates - yet he goes 7 rounds later? :2cents:
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Agreed. A late tandem of say Crumpler and Scheffler seems very reasonable if you can't get one of the studs at good value. TE screams value right now if you are patient. Heap, Shockey, Gonzo, Daniels, Crumpler, Scheffler... all seem undervalued currently.
 
Mystery Achiever said:
I always take TE later -- Witten was a later round pick last year (7-8, I think) if you recall.
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I always take a WR later -- Randy Moss slipped past the first tier, and Brandon Marshall and Santonio Holmes were later round picks last year, if you recall. I also take a QB later -- Ben Rothlisberger and Tony Romo were both later round picks last year, and Derek Anderson wasn't even drafted, if you recall. I also wait on RBs -- Peterson, Jamal Lewis, and Marion Barber were all later round picks last year, if you recall. Basically, my draft strategy is to wait on everything. I simply pass on all my draft picks until I hit the 5th round or later, because look at all the late-round steals there have been at every position over the past years!Kidding aside, the fact that Witten was drafted late doesn't validate the "wait on a TE" theory any more than the fact that Jamal Lewis and Marion Barber were drafted late validates the "wait on an RB" theory. Every year, there are diamonds in the rough at EVERY position. That doesn't mean you should rely on finding them, because you're far more likely to find rough than diamond. For instance, here are the four TEs Dodds had ranked immediately around Witten before the start of last season- Vernon Davis (75 points, TE14), Chris Cooley (127 points, TE6), Ben Watson (76 points, TE13), and Alge Crumpler (74 points, TE15). Busterrific- if you drafted a TE from that clump, you had a 60% chance of getting a guy who wasn't even starter-caliber, a 20% chance of getting a solid starter, and a 20% chance of getting a difference-maker.There are lots of flashy names at TE late in the draft this year, but there are always lots of flashy names at TE. At the end of the day, there are going to be 2-4 true DIFFERENCE MAKERS at the position. We *KNOW* one of them is going to be Gates. We *KNOW* that at least two of the others are going to come from the Witten/Winslow/Gonzalez trio. That leaves pretty slim pickings late in the draft.
Tatum Bell said:
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
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:lmao: Normally I'm an advocate of taking a TE early (last year I drafted in the first three rounds FWP, Gates, Portis, for example) but there's so much depth at that position now that you're no longer screwed if you end up with the 4th or lower TE. The position is greatly changed from the way it was a decade ago.
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Yes, the position is greatly changed. It's become MORE valuable. The difference between the top TEs and the rest of the pack is even greater than it's ever been, so even if there are one or two more top TEs, it's that much more important for you to get them.Just look at VBD values for the elite TEs. VBD takes into account any rise in the production of a position as a whole, but the elite TEs are still posting the same VBD values they've always been posting.
 
SSOG said:
Tatum Bell said:
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
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:confused: Normally I'm an advocate of taking a TE early (last year I drafted in the first three rounds FWP, Gates, Portis, for example) but there's so much depth at that position now that you're no longer screwed if you end up with the 4th or lower TE. The position is greatly changed from the way it was a decade ago.
Click to expand...
Yes, the position is greatly changed. It's become MORE valuable. The difference between the top TEs and the rest of the pack is even greater than it's ever been, so even if there are one or two more top TEs, it's that much more important for you to get them.Just look at VBD values for the elite TEs. VBD takes into account any rise in the production of a position as a whole, but the elite TEs are still posting the same VBD values they've always been posting.
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This exposes a flaw in traditional VBD analysis IMHO. VBD measures the relative value between a given player and the worst fantasy starter at that player's position. It doesn't measure the rate of decline among starters towards that lowest starter's value. I agree with you that the TE12 of 2008 is not likely producing much if anything more than the TE12 of 1998, however the issue when drafting is that the TE7 of 2008 is producing much more than was the TE7 of 1998.
 
SSOG said:
Mystery Achiever said:
I always take TE later -- Witten was a later round pick last year (7-8, I think) if you recall.
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I always take a WR later -- Randy Moss slipped past the first tier, and Brandon Marshall and Santonio Holmes were later round picks last year, if you recall. I also take a QB later -- Ben Rothlisberger and Tony Romo were both later round picks last year, and Derek Anderson wasn't even drafted, if you recall. I also wait on RBs -- Peterson, Jamal Lewis, and Marion Barber were all later round picks last year, if you recall. Basically, my draft strategy is to wait on everything. I simply pass on all my draft picks until I hit the 5th round or later, because look at all the late-round steals there have been at every position over the past years!Kidding aside, the fact that Witten was drafted late doesn't validate the "wait on a TE" theory any more than the fact that Jamal Lewis and Marion Barber were drafted late validates the "wait on an RB" theory. Every year, there are diamonds in the rough at EVERY position. That doesn't mean you should rely on finding them, because you're far more likely to find rough than diamond. For instance, here are the four TEs Dodds had ranked immediately around Witten before the start of last season- Vernon Davis (75 points, TE14), Chris Cooley (127 points, TE6), Ben Watson (76 points, TE13), and Alge Crumpler (74 points, TE15). Busterrific- if you drafted a TE from that clump, you had a 60% chance of getting a guy who wasn't even starter-caliber, a 20% chance of getting a solid starter, and a 20% chance of getting a difference-maker.There are lots of flashy names at TE late in the draft this year, but there are always lots of flashy names at TE. At the end of the day, there are going to be 2-4 true DIFFERENCE MAKERS at the position. We *KNOW* one of them is going to be Gates. We *KNOW* that at least two of the others are going to come from the Witten/Winslow/Gonzalez trio. That leaves pretty slim pickings late in the draft.
Tatum Bell said:
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
Click to expand...
:confused: Normally I'm an advocate of taking a TE early (last year I drafted in the first three rounds FWP, Gates, Portis, for example) but there's so much depth at that position now that you're no longer screwed if you end up with the 4th or lower TE. The position is greatly changed from the way it was a decade ago.
Click to expand...
Yes, the position is greatly changed. It's become MORE valuable. The difference between the top TEs and the rest of the pack is even greater than it's ever been, so even if there are one or two more top TEs, it's that much more important for you to get them.Just look at VBD values for the elite TEs. VBD takes into account any rise in the production of a position as a whole, but the elite TEs are still posting the same VBD values they've always been posting.
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I agree. I think it's much easier to get a WR to outperform his draft spot than a TE. These top TE's are like a WR2.
 
FUBAR said:
podunker said:
...Consider yourself warned! TAKE SHOCKEY IN ROUND 8 OR 9 AND DON'T LOOK BACK!!!!!!
Click to expand...
maybe, but if personally, if I don't get Witten, Gates, or Gonzo at very good values, I'm taking Scheffler. Let's see, his best friend is the QB, he's easily the #2 option behind a guy who has issues, and he was one of the best TEs in the 2nd half of last season. Mark my words, he is a top 5 TE this year, maybe top 3 behind Witten and Gates - yet he goes 7 rounds later? :confused:
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I'm not suggesting that Scheffler will bomb, but over the last few years we've seen several TEs come on late in the year and rank near the Top 5 for half a seaon that didn't do much the next year (or fell off the map): Zach Hilton, Jermaine Wiggins, Eric Heiden, Boo Williams, and Stephen Alexander come to mind. Scheffler should be a decent fantasy TE . . . I'm just not sure he'll produce at the big boy level just yet.
 
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SSOG said:
Mystery Achiever said:
I always take TE later -- Witten was a later round pick last year (7-8, I think) if you recall.
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I always take a WR later -- Randy Moss slipped past the first tier, and Brandon Marshall and Santonio Holmes were later round picks last year, if you recall. I also take a QB later -- Ben Rothlisberger and Tony Romo were both later round picks last year, and Derek Anderson wasn't even drafted, if you recall. I also wait on RBs -- Peterson, Jamal Lewis, and Marion Barber were all later round picks last year, if you recall. Basically, my draft strategy is to wait on everything. I simply pass on all my draft picks until I hit the 5th round or later, because look at all the late-round steals there have been at every position over the past years!Kidding aside, the fact that Witten was drafted late doesn't validate the "wait on a TE" theory any more than the fact that Jamal Lewis and Marion Barber were drafted late validates the "wait on an RB" theory. Every year, there are diamonds in the rough at EVERY position. That doesn't mean you should rely on finding them, because you're far more likely to find rough than diamond. For instance, here are the four TEs Dodds had ranked immediately around Witten before the start of last season- Vernon Davis (75 points, TE14), Chris Cooley (127 points, TE6), Ben Watson (76 points, TE13), and Alge Crumpler (74 points, TE15). Busterrific- if you drafted a TE from that clump, you had a 60% chance of getting a guy who wasn't even starter-caliber, a 20% chance of getting a solid starter, and a 20% chance of getting a difference-maker.There are lots of flashy names at TE late in the draft this year, but there are always lots of flashy names at TE. At the end of the day, there are going to be 2-4 true DIFFERENCE MAKERS at the position. We *KNOW* one of them is going to be Gates. We *KNOW* that at least two of the others are going to come from the Witten/Winslow/Gonzalez trio. That leaves pretty slim pickings late in the draft.
Tatum Bell said:
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
Click to expand...
:confused: Normally I'm an advocate of taking a TE early (last year I drafted in the first three rounds FWP, Gates, Portis, for example) but there's so much depth at that position now that you're no longer screwed if you end up with the 4th or lower TE. The position is greatly changed from the way it was a decade ago.
Click to expand...
Yes, the position is greatly changed. It's become MORE valuable. The difference between the top TEs and the rest of the pack is even greater than it's ever been, so even if there are one or two more top TEs, it's that much more important for you to get them.Just look at VBD values for the elite TEs. VBD takes into account any rise in the production of a position as a whole, but the elite TEs are still posting the same VBD values they've always been posting.
Click to expand...
I don't agree, the top TE (Gates, and before him, Gonzo) is closer to the middle of the pack than in recent years. In years past, they were getting drafted in the 3rd round, and this year it's the 4th or 5th. Plus, I can't seem to remember a league champ that picked a TE early. I agree with the original poster, wait for value.
 
SSOG said:
Mystery Achiever said:
I always take TE later -- Witten was a later round pick last year (7-8, I think) if you recall.
Click to expand...
I always take a WR later -- Randy Moss slipped past the first tier, and Brandon Marshall and Santonio Holmes were later round picks last year, if you recall. I also take a QB later -- Ben Rothlisberger and Tony Romo were both later round picks last year, and Derek Anderson wasn't even drafted, if you recall. I also wait on RBs -- Peterson, Jamal Lewis, and Marion Barber were all later round picks last year, if you recall. Basically, my draft strategy is to wait on everything. I simply pass on all my draft picks until I hit the 5th round or later, because look at all the late-round steals there have been at every position over the past years!Kidding aside, the fact that Witten was drafted late doesn't validate the "wait on a TE" theory any more than the fact that Jamal Lewis and Marion Barber were drafted late validates the "wait on an RB" theory. Every year, there are diamonds in the rough at EVERY position. That doesn't mean you should rely on finding them, because you're far more likely to find rough than diamond.
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Um, "if you recall" refers to Witten going late; I don't expect anyone to follow my draft tendencies. :thumbup: In Witten's case,, there was plenty of talk/evidence that Witten would have an expanded role with Jason Garrett as the OC. Lots of mentions of Jay Novacek (sp?) and his large role. And if "We *KNOW* that at least two of the others are going to come from the Witten/Winslow/Gonzalez trio. " then you could have a one in three chance of being wrong with an early pick now, don't you? Look there are people who take QBs early, TEs early, etc, etc. THat makes it more interesting, no? I take both late...but I don;t expect you to remember that. :wub:

 
I Am Rick James said:
SSOG said:
Mystery Achiever said:
I always take TE later -- Witten was a later round pick last year (7-8, I think) if you recall.
Click to expand...
I always take a WR later -- Randy Moss slipped past the first tier, and Brandon Marshall and Santonio Holmes were later round picks last year, if you recall. I also take a QB later -- Ben Rothlisberger and Tony Romo were both later round picks last year, and Derek Anderson wasn't even drafted, if you recall. I also wait on RBs -- Peterson, Jamal Lewis, and Marion Barber were all later round picks last year, if you recall. Basically, my draft strategy is to wait on everything. I simply pass on all my draft picks until I hit the 5th round or later, because look at all the late-round steals there have been at every position over the past years!Kidding aside, the fact that Witten was drafted late doesn't validate the "wait on a TE" theory any more than the fact that Jamal Lewis and Marion Barber were drafted late validates the "wait on an RB" theory. Every year, there are diamonds in the rough at EVERY position. That doesn't mean you should rely on finding them, because you're far more likely to find rough than diamond. For instance, here are the four TEs Dodds had ranked immediately around Witten before the start of last season- Vernon Davis (75 points, TE14), Chris Cooley (127 points, TE6), Ben Watson (76 points, TE13), and Alge Crumpler (74 points, TE15). Busterrific- if you drafted a TE from that clump, you had a 60% chance of getting a guy who wasn't even starter-caliber, a 20% chance of getting a solid starter, and a 20% chance of getting a difference-maker.There are lots of flashy names at TE late in the draft this year, but there are always lots of flashy names at TE. At the end of the day, there are going to be 2-4 true DIFFERENCE MAKERS at the position. We *KNOW* one of them is going to be Gates. We *KNOW* that at least two of the others are going to come from the Witten/Winslow/Gonzalez trio. That leaves pretty slim pickings late in the draft.
Tatum Bell said:
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
Click to expand...
:wub: Normally I'm an advocate of taking a TE early (last year I drafted in the first three rounds FWP, Gates, Portis, for example) but there's so much depth at that position now that you're no longer screwed if you end up with the 4th or lower TE. The position is greatly changed from the way it was a decade ago.
Click to expand...
Yes, the position is greatly changed. It's become MORE valuable. The difference between the top TEs and the rest of the pack is even greater than it's ever been, so even if there are one or two more top TEs, it's that much more important for you to get them.Just look at VBD values for the elite TEs. VBD takes into account any rise in the production of a position as a whole, but the elite TEs are still posting the same VBD values they've always been posting.
Click to expand...
I don't agree, the top TE (Gates, and before him, Gonzo) is closer to the middle of the pack than in recent years. In years past, they were getting drafted in the 3rd round, and this year it's the 4th or 5th. Plus, I can't seem to remember a league champ that picked a TE early. I agree with the original poster, wait for value.
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VBD scores of the Top 3 TEs over the past 10 years . . .07 78, 74, 6906 65, 45, 3905 93, 54, 5104 105, 99, 6503 87, 60, 2502 61, 56, 3901 55, 47, 1800 114, 50, 4699 94, 91, 5098 70, 37, 36We can debate if that means anything.
 
Mystery Achiever said:
In Witten's case,, there was plenty of talk/evidence that Witten would have an expanded role with Jason Garrett as the OC. Lots of mentions of Jay Novacek (sp?) and his large role.
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There was also plenty of talk/evidence that Alge Crumpler would still be a huge part of Atlanta's offense, and talk/evidence that Ben Watson was going to be one of New England's leading receivers, and talk/evidence that Vernon Davis was too talented to be stopped, and all of that talk/evidence was dead wrong. There are arguments for drafting ANY player. You can't in hindsight say "you should have just known Witten was better than the guys rated around him based on this info we had", because you ignore all the info we had for the guys around him, too. If we really had so much reason to believe that Witten would have been better than the 4 TEs drafted around him, we would have been drafting him higher than the 4 TEs we were drafting around him.Beware revisionist history.

And if "We *KNOW* that at least two of the others are going to come from the Witten/Winslow/Gonzalez trio. " then you could have a one in three chance of being wrong with an early pick now, don't you? Look there are people who take QBs early, TEs early, etc, etc. THat makes it more interesting, no? I take both late...but I don;t expect you to remember that. :excited:
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Yes, as I handicap the race, you DO have a 1-in-3 chance of being wrong with the Witten/Winslow/Gonzo trio. Based on historical data, I give Gates a 90% chance of being a difference maker, W/W/G each a 66% chance of being a difference maker, and everyone else maybe a 20% chance at best. That's why Gates/Witten/Winslow/Gonzo are all being drafted as highly as they are.
 
SSOG said:
Mystery Achiever said:
In Witten's case,, there was plenty of talk/evidence that Witten would have an expanded role with Jason Garrett as the OC. Lots of mentions of Jay Novacek (sp?) and his large role.
Click to expand...
There was also plenty of talk/evidence that Alge Crumpler would still be a huge part of Atlanta's offense, and talk/evidence that Ben Watson was going to be one of New England's leading receivers, and talk/evidence that Vernon Davis was too talented to be stopped, and all of that talk/evidence was dead wrong. There are arguments for drafting ANY player. You can't in hindsight say "you should have just known Witten was better than the guys rated around him based on this info we had", because you ignore all the info we had for the guys around him, too. If we really had so much reason to believe that Witten would have been better than the 4 TEs drafted around him, we would have been drafting him higher than the 4 TEs we were drafting around him.Beware revisionist history.
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:goodposting: After Witten's 2006, a lot of people were scared away. He had only 1 touchdown. I will always think he was the major beneficiary of Terry Glenn going down. I took him in the 10th round in two consecutive years, and in 2007 another owner said, "Didn't you learn your lesson last year?"
 
SSOG said:
There was also plenty of talk/evidence that Alge Crumpler would still be a huge part of Atlanta's offense, and talk/evidence that Ben Watson was going to be one of New England's leading receivers, and talk/evidence that Vernon Davis was too talented to be stopped, and all of that talk/evidence was dead wrong. There are arguments for drafting ANY player. You can't in hindsight say "you should have just known Witten was better than the guys rated around him based on this info we had", because you ignore all the info we had for the guys around him, too. If we really had so much reason to believe that Witten would have been better than the 4 TEs drafted around him, we would have been drafting him higher than the 4 TEs we were drafting around him
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You don't have to believe he's better. But if can make a case for Davis, Crumpler AND Witten, you just take the guy going a lot later (can't remember if Watson was going earlier or not). It doesn't matter where others are drafting those guys - just what your analysis tells you.Was there some luck involved? Of, course. There usually is. :goodposting:
 
David Yudkin said:
FUBAR said:
podunker said:
...Consider yourself warned! TAKE SHOCKEY IN ROUND 8 OR 9 AND DON'T LOOK BACK!!!!!!
Click to expand...
maybe, but if personally, if I don't get Witten, Gates, or Gonzo at very good values, I'm taking Scheffler. Let's see, his best friend is the QB, he's easily the #2 option behind a guy who has issues, and he was one of the best TEs in the 2nd half of last season. Mark my words, he is a top 5 TE this year, maybe top 3 behind Witten and Gates - yet he goes 7 rounds later? :goodposting:
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I'm not suggesting that Scheffler will bomb, but over the last few years we've seen several TEs come on late in the year and rank near the Top 5 for half a seaon that didn't do much the next year (or fell off the map): Zach Hilton, Jermaine Wiggins, Eric Heiden, Boo Williams, and Stephen Alexander come to mind. Scheffler should be a decent fantasy TE . . . I'm just not sure he'll produce at the big boy level just yet.
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Sure, but none of those were as talented as Scheffler, nor did they have the connection with their QB.
 
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
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The one damn year that I had him. :rolleyes: Im now gunshy on gonzo.
 
This is a much different argument if it is a PPR league where the top tier TE and even a few from tier 2 will have significantly more receptions than those you can draft in much later rounds > TE 8-12

Shockey has some clear issues this year beyond the ever present health questions.

Heap assuming he is totally healthy again has some (at least for now) perceived QB issues.

 
Keep 5, 10 owner league, If I don't take Whitten or Winslow at pick 8 or 10 I don't pick until rd 10 (5 in our league).

I like finding the diamond TE not playing it safe. TEs are always for sale in our league. I'm targeting Sheff, Watson, Lee, Crump or Davis. But I'll take whomever.

 
I've been doing this for year in my redraft leagues. It's netted me Cooley in both 2005/2006 and Clark last year.

 
Just take the BPA...If it is a TE, so be it. Going into the draft knowing you are going to wait on a TE is just trouble.

I remember this same argument from last season. Just with names like Bo Scaife, Marcus Pollard, Eric Johnson, Alex Smith, Visanthe Shiancoe, Randy McMicheal and so on.

 
The TEs I like are Daniels and L.J. Smith as TE1, and Zack Miller as a great TE2. LJ Smith is a steal in drafts. He was TE9 in 2005 and 2006, then injured last yr.

 
Max Power said:
Just take the BPA...If it is a TE, so be it. Going into the draft knowing you are going to wait on a TE is just trouble.I remember this same argument from last season. Just with names like Bo Scaife, Marcus Pollard, Eric Johnson, Alex Smith, Visanthe Shiancoe, Randy McMicheal and so on.
Click to expand...
Good posting on both counts. In one league, I wound up drafting my second TE as the 8th TE off the board, despite the fact that I already had Antonio Gates, simply because he presented too much value to pass on. Worked out pretty well, since that TE was Jason Witten.
Jeff Tefertiller said:
The TEs I like are Daniels and L.J. Smith as TE1, and Zack Miller as a great TE2. LJ Smith is a steal in drafts. He was TE9 in 2005 and 2006, then injured last yr.
Click to expand...
I can't really find myself getting too excited about TE9s and potential top-12 TEs. At the TE position, there are only a few difference makers, and everyone else is bunched up too tightly to matter all that much. I'd much rather spend my time trying to figure out who's going to finish in the top 4 than trying to find potential late-round guys who will likely finish in the 9-12 range.
 
Well, I love Witten as much as the next guy, but I think I am going to hold off even past round 8 to get a TE this year. There are lots of late round options I like. Good thoughts though.

 
SSOG said:
Max Power said:
Just take the BPA...If it is a TE, so be it. Going into the draft knowing you are going to wait on a TE is just trouble.I remember this same argument from last season. Just with names like Bo Scaife, Marcus Pollard, Eric Johnson, Alex Smith, Visanthe Shiancoe, Randy McMicheal and so on.
Click to expand...
Good posting on both counts. In one league, I wound up drafting my second TE as the 8th TE off the board, despite the fact that I already had Antonio Gates, simply because he presented too much value to pass on. Worked out pretty well, since that TE was Jason Witten.
Jeff Tefertiller said:
The TEs I like are Daniels and L.J. Smith as TE1, and Zack Miller as a great TE2. LJ Smith is a steal in drafts. He was TE9 in 2005 and 2006, then injured last yr.
Click to expand...
I can't really find myself getting too excited about TE9s and potential top-12 TEs. At the TE position, there are only a few difference makers, and everyone else is bunched up too tightly to matter all that much. I'd much rather spend my time trying to figure out who's going to finish in the top 4 than trying to find potential late-round guys who will likely finish in the 9-12 range.
Click to expand...
Why is it that you're convinced (as you certainly appear to be) that the only way to successfully draft a competitive team is to land a top 4 TE? You really haven't articulated this yet.
 
BigSteelThrill said:
Anthony Borbely said:
I've seen Gonzo fall into the 6th round in more than one draft. He has been a top 3 TE 8 of the last 9 years and has not lost a thing. He is being overlooked because of his age and it's ridiculous.
Click to expand...
The one damn year that I had him. :popcorn: Im now gunshy on gonzo.
Click to expand...
I'm "overlooking" Gonzo this year because he is on a horrific offense, not b/c of his age. The chiefs O is absolutely horrendous, they have a Defensive minded coach in good ol Herm, they have a young QB, and they're getting LJ back which means they should run a lot more this year.For me, its Gates, Witten, or K2...otherwise wait

 
Jeff Tefertiller said:
The TEs I like are Daniels and L.J. Smith as TE1, and Zack Miller as a great TE2. LJ Smith is a steal in drafts. He was TE9 in 2005 and 2006, then injured last yr.
Click to expand...
I like those folks as well (have ended up with a Daniels/Zach miller combo in a couple drafts already). The way I'm looking at it, there's the top 4 (Gates, Witten, Winslow, Gonzo), so I'll try and grab whichever one falls the farthest (my redraft usually ignores TE except for Gates). After that, there's about 6 that I see about the same, so I'll take someone from the last of those.
 
SSOG said:
I always take a WR later -- Randy Moss slipped past the first tier, and Brandon Marshall and Santonio Holmes were later round picks last year, if you recall. I also take a QB later -- Ben Rothlisberger and Tony Romo were both later round picks last year, and Derek Anderson wasn't even drafted, if you recall. I also wait on RBs -- Peterson, Jamal Lewis, and Marion Barber were all later round picks last year, if you recall. Basically, my draft strategy is to wait on everything. I simply pass on all my draft picks until I hit the 5th round or later, because look at all the late-round steals there have been at every position over the past years!Kidding aside, the fact that Witten was drafted late doesn't validate the "wait on a TE" theory any more than the fact that Jamal Lewis and Marion Barber were drafted late validates the "wait on an RB" theory. Every year, there are diamonds in the rough at EVERY position. That doesn't mean you should rely on finding them, because you're far more likely to find rough than diamond.
Click to expand...
Wow somebody else gets it. I'm amazed how many people use this alleged logic, ie the "wait on (position) because you CAN get great value later...just look at (player name) last year" Still, I'm on the fence about this and can see both sides. You can definitely get TEs later/cheaper than previous years due to several other TEs having big years last year - but few if any beyond Gates do I really trust to do it again. Witten etc could just as easily fall back into the middle of the pack. Technically Gates could too, but the odds are much smaller IMO.
 
SSOG said:
Mystery Achiever said:
In Witten's case,, there was plenty of talk/evidence that Witten would have an expanded role with Jason Garrett as the OC. Lots of mentions of Jay Novacek (sp?) and his large role.
Click to expand...
There was also plenty of talk/evidence that Alge Crumpler would still be a huge part of Atlanta's offense, and talk/evidence that Ben Watson was going to be one of New England's leading receivers, and talk/evidence that Vernon Davis was too talented to be stopped, and all of that talk/evidence was dead wrong. There are arguments for drafting ANY player. You can't in hindsight say "you should have just known Witten was better than the guys rated around him based on this info we had", because you ignore all the info we had for the guys around him, too. If we really had so much reason to believe that Witten would have been better than the 4 TEs drafted around him, we would have been drafting him higher than the 4 TEs we were drafting around him.Beware revisionist history.

And if "We *KNOW* that at least two of the others are going to come from the Witten/Winslow/Gonzalez trio. " then you could have a one in three chance of being wrong with an early pick now, don't you? Look there are people who take QBs early, TEs early, etc, etc. THat makes it more interesting, no? I take both late...but I don;t expect you to remember that. :sadbanana:
Click to expand...
Yes, as I handicap the race, you DO have a 1-in-3 chance of being wrong with the Witten/Winslow/Gonzo trio. Based on historical data, I give Gates a 90% chance of being a difference maker, W/W/G each a 66% chance of being a difference maker, and everyone else maybe a 20% chance at best. That's why Gates/Witten/Winslow/Gonzo are all being drafted as highly as they are.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything you've said so far, but, I am wondering what exactly makes Witten/Winslow a 66% chance compared to say Cooley/Crumpler/Heap at 20%? Looking at the past 4 years these three are much more consistent and proven, IMO. Witten had two good years, a terrible year and finally a career year. Winslow had two years he couldn't get on the field before two good years. Why not wait a little for value and grab Cooley who has 4 good years in a row and is trending upward? :D
 
Tatum Bell said:
SSOG said:
Max Power said:
Just take the BPA...If it is a TE, so be it. Going into the draft knowing you are going to wait on a TE is just trouble.I remember this same argument from last season. Just with names like Bo Scaife, Marcus Pollard, Eric Johnson, Alex Smith, Visanthe Shiancoe, Randy McMicheal and so on.
Click to expand...
Good posting on both counts. In one league, I wound up drafting my second TE as the 8th TE off the board, despite the fact that I already had Antonio Gates, simply because he presented too much value to pass on. Worked out pretty well, since that TE was Jason Witten.
Jeff Tefertiller said:
The TEs I like are Daniels and L.J. Smith as TE1, and Zack Miller as a great TE2. LJ Smith is a steal in drafts. He was TE9 in 2005 and 2006, then injured last yr.
Click to expand...
I can't really find myself getting too excited about TE9s and potential top-12 TEs. At the TE position, there are only a few difference makers, and everyone else is bunched up too tightly to matter all that much. I'd much rather spend my time trying to figure out who's going to finish in the top 4 than trying to find potential late-round guys who will likely finish in the 9-12 range.
Click to expand...
Why is it that you're convinced (as you certainly appear to be) that the only way to successfully draft a competitive team is to land a top 4 TE? You really haven't articulated this yet.
Click to expand...
I never said that the only way to draft a competitive team is to land a top-4 TE. I only said that I believe that spending to get a top-4 TE early is a better strategy than waiting on a TE late. Obviously the flow of the draft, the people you're playing with, and a million other variables factor in, I just give preference to the stud TE strategy.As for why? Stud TEs are drafted right around the WR2s/low WR1s, they score the same amount of points as the WR2s/low WR1s, and they play at a position of more scarcity. Seems like a recipe for success. I think stud TEs are undervalued by the fantasy community.
 
tonydead said:
SSOG said:
Mystery Achiever said:
In Witten's case,, there was plenty of talk/evidence that Witten would have an expanded role with Jason Garrett as the OC. Lots of mentions of Jay Novacek (sp?) and his large role.
Click to expand...
There was also plenty of talk/evidence that Alge Crumpler would still be a huge part of Atlanta's offense, and talk/evidence that Ben Watson was going to be one of New England's leading receivers, and talk/evidence that Vernon Davis was too talented to be stopped, and all of that talk/evidence was dead wrong. There are arguments for drafting ANY player. You can't in hindsight say "you should have just known Witten was better than the guys rated around him based on this info we had", because you ignore all the info we had for the guys around him, too. If we really had so much reason to believe that Witten would have been better than the 4 TEs drafted around him, we would have been drafting him higher than the 4 TEs we were drafting around him.Beware revisionist history.

And if "We *KNOW* that at least two of the others are going to come from the Witten/Winslow/Gonzalez trio. " then you could have a one in three chance of being wrong with an early pick now, don't you? Look there are people who take QBs early, TEs early, etc, etc. THat makes it more interesting, no? I take both late...but I don;t expect you to remember that. :no:
Click to expand...
Yes, as I handicap the race, you DO have a 1-in-3 chance of being wrong with the Witten/Winslow/Gonzo trio. Based on historical data, I give Gates a 90% chance of being a difference maker, W/W/G each a 66% chance of being a difference maker, and everyone else maybe a 20% chance at best. That's why Gates/Witten/Winslow/Gonzo are all being drafted as highly as they are.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything you've said so far, but, I am wondering what exactly makes Witten/Winslow a 66% chance compared to say Cooley/Crumpler/Heap at 20%? Looking at the past 4 years these three are much more consistent and proven, IMO. Witten had two good years, a terrible year and finally a career year. Winslow had two years he couldn't get on the field before two good years. Why not wait a little for value and grab Cooley who has 4 good years in a row and is trending upward? :construction:
Click to expand...
Subjectively speaking, I feel like Witten and Winslow's situation is much more conducive to them remaining difference makers. Can you really see a TE on a new team catching passes from Vince Young posting 900 yards and 8 scores? I can't. Are you really so sure that Cooley's going to keep improving now that Saunders is out of town? I'm not. It's possible, but there's far more uncertainty surrounding Cooley/Crumpler than there is surrounding Witten (who is in the exact same situation as last year, except his competition for catches is even older and his QB is even closer to his prime) or Winslow (who hasn't missed a game in two years, has posted some sick numbers over that span, and is a featured weapon on a suddenly explosive offense).
 
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