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Player Spotlight: Felix Jones (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Felix Jones Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
very hard to say how much he'll cut into Barber's carries. Most think he's better than JJ but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll get more carries, in fact maybe less. Maybe they'll use Barber more knowing the talent they have - not saying Barber will get 300+ but he might approach it.

Basically I will avoid but not totally disregard Jones. I don't trust him to get it enough to be worth even a late-round flyer - probably. Course if it's between him and somebody like Norwood.....

 
The Cowboys ranked 17th in the league last year in rushing. So while we fantasy players are enamored with Marion Barber, something tells me the 'Boys are looking at running this situation similar (notice I didn't say "same") to what they did with Julius Jones in 2005/2006 and give something close to a 50/50 split between he and MBIII.

I'd say it Jones' line looks something like this:

Rush - 225/900/5

Rec - 15/100/2

Yes. I really do like his chances.

I wanted to give him more catches, but he only caught 8, 15, and 16 in three years in college.

 
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I think this is an easy proposition.

Take Julius Jones's average production from 2006 and 2007:

Year Car Yds YPC TD2006 267 1084 4.1 42007 165 585 3.5 2For 2008, I don't think Marion Barber III touches the ball as much as last year. He plays better when he doesn't have to shoulder the load. Barber emerged a little more last year, but my opinion is that this is more of a result of Julius Jones fading into the back of the offensive line rather than Barber becoming the far-and-away better runner.Now, back to Felix Jones. If he can hit holes and run with some power to complement his speed and shake, I don't see why he can't approach somewhere between the number of carries for Julius Jones the past two seasons. Probably on the lower end as he'll be learning pass blocking. Word out of camp is that his hands are much better than expected as well, so don't be surprised to see him flex into the slot to run a pass pattern occasionally.

My guess:

192 rushes

850 yards

4.4 YPR

4 TD

32 rec

300 yds

9.4 YPR

1 TD

 
I wanted to give him more catches, but he only caught 8, 15, and 16 in three years in college.
I think a lot of this can be laid at the feet of the archaic offense Arkansas runs. Good hands are good hands, and we all know that Dallas will fling it around prolifically.
 
I think Jones gets a good amount of carries as a rookie. His value lies in what Barber can not do, he faded in the playoff game when he got early carries in the game. Barber to me cannot carry a full game load and Jones will pick up carries and as Felix proves himself he will get closer to 40/60 split this year.

 
The Cowboys ranked 17th in the league last year in rushing. So while we fantasy players are enamored with Marion Barber, something tells me the 'Boys are looking at running this situation similar (notice I didn't say "same") to what they did with Julius Jones in 2005/2006 and give something close to a 50/50 split between he and MBIII.I'd say it Jones' line looks something like this:Rush - 225/900/5Rec - 15/100/2Yes. I really do like his chances.I wanted to give him more catches, but he only caught 8, 15, and 16 in three years in college.
Andy - I find the 225 carries somewhat hard to believe. Based on your correlation between college and NFL reception totals, your logic should translate to college and NFL carries. Felix Jones never had more than 154 carries in a college season (in a platoon roll with McFadden).
 
The Cowboys ranked 17th in the league last year in rushing. So while we fantasy players are enamored with Marion Barber, something tells me the 'Boys are looking at running this situation similar (notice I didn't say "same") to what they did with Julius Jones in 2005/2006 and give something close to a 50/50 split between he and MBIII.I'd say it Jones' line looks something like this:Rush - 225/900/5Rec - 15/100/2Yes. I really do like his chances.I wanted to give him more catches, but he only caught 8, 15, and 16 in three years in college.
Andy - I find the 225 carries somewhat hard to believe. Based on your correlation between college and NFL reception totals, your logic should translate to college and NFL carries. Felix Jones never had more than 154 carries in a college season (in a platoon roll with McFadden).
But for the role that he's in in Dallas, I think he's suited to carry more than he did when he was a compliment to McFadden. The Cowboys obviously feel that Barber's touches should be limited. That means the #2, which is obviously Jones, is the beneficiary of more carries.Plus, I did admit that I could see Jones catching more passes than he did in college - again a nod to his changed and/or expanded role when comparing offenses.
 
175 carries

875 yards

2 Rush TDs

30 catches

285 yards

2 TDs

I think his carries will increase as the season wears on but his TD numbers will probably stay pretty low with Barber being so effective near the GL. I see him as a much more explosive option than Julius Jones though and think he will do well averaging around 5 ypc.

 
I think Jones gets a good amount of carries as a rookie. His value lies in what Barber can not do, he faded in the playoff game when he got early carries in the game. Barber to me cannot carry a full game load and Jones will pick up carries and as Felix proves himself he will get closer to 40/60 split this year.
It was the Dallas offensive line that got tired, not Marion Barber. Barber looked spectacular versus the Giants in the playoffs, the big fellas got winded and the Giant defensive line took over. The Giant defensive line also dominated New England's offensive line as well as I never saw Brady get knocked around like he did in the Super Bowl, so I'm more inclined to give kudos to the Giants than I am to say MB3 can't handle the full load.As far as Felix Jones, I think he's a part time player. MB3 was a part time player when he was a rookie and even if Felix is good, I just think he's going to slowly work himself into the lineup. If he's good, then he'll find himself in the lineup more often.I do not believe he's going to get some 50/50 or even a 60/40 split right out of the gate, I just don't.400 yards and 1 td's with 30 catches for 350 yards and 2td's
 
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Eh. Kick returner and change-of-pace back. MB3's still the man in Dallas by a wide margin.
You mean the 204 carry Barber? How much is he "the man" if he only has that few carries?Edit: Oh, and BTW... How many games did he start last year?
Zero in the regular season, 1 in the post season. But he's the starter this year.....on the flip side, how many games did any other running backs playing on Dallas right now behind Barber start last year in the NFL?
 
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Eh. Kick returner and change-of-pace back. MB3's still the man in Dallas by a wide margin.
You mean the 204 carry Barber? How much is he "the man" if he only has that few carries?Edit: Oh, and BTW... How many games did he start last year?
Zero in the regular season, 1 in the post season. But he's the starter this year.....on the flip side, how many games did any other running backs playing on Dallas right now behind Barber start last year in the NFL?
I'm just saying that it's hard for him to be "still" the man when he wasn't really "the man" last year either.I just really wonder what the Cowboys are thinking. I personally think he could be "the man" but with his low carry numbers and the fact they felt compelled to spend a 1st on Jones, it makes me wonder what they want from him. I doubt they want more than they got last year.
 
Eh. Kick returner and change-of-pace back. MB3's still the man in Dallas by a wide margin.
You mean the 204 carry Barber? How much is he "the man" if he only has that few carries?Edit: Oh, and BTW... How many games did he start last year?
Zero in the regular season, 1 in the post season. But he's the starter this year.....on the flip side, how many games did any other running backs playing on Dallas right now behind Barber start last year in the NFL?
I'm just saying that it's hard for him to be "still" the man when he wasn't really "the man" last year either.I just really wonder what the Cowboys are thinking. I personally think he could be "the man" but with his low carry numbers and the fact they felt compelled to spend a 1st on Jones, it makes me wonder what they want from him. I doubt they want more than they got last year.
"felt compelled"? might have had something to do with the fact that Barber wasn't signed, rather than a concern about ability....?
 
Eh. Kick returner and change-of-pace back. MB3's still the man in Dallas by a wide margin.
You mean the 204 carry Barber? How much is he "the man" if he only has that few carries?Edit: Oh, and BTW... How many games did he start last year?
Zero in the regular season, 1 in the post season. But he's the starter this year.....on the flip side, how many games did any other running backs playing on Dallas right now behind Barber start last year in the NFL?
I'm just saying that it's hard for him to be "still" the man when he wasn't really "the man" last year either.I just really wonder what the Cowboys are thinking. I personally think he could be "the man" but with his low carry numbers and the fact they felt compelled to spend a 1st on Jones, it makes me wonder what they want from him. I doubt they want more than they got last year.
"felt compelled"? might have had something to do with the fact that Barber wasn't signed, rather than a concern about ability....?
No. I don't think so. I think if they felt they weren't going to get Barber signed that they'd have taken Mendenhall instead of Jones.
 
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This is one of the more difficult projections because we just don't know how he's going to be used. Will he spell MB? Probably. How much will depend on his pass blocking and what Tashard Choice looks like. We don't think MB will get materially more touches this year, but where JJ's touches go is still yet to be determined.

In mini-camps, they also ran some sets with both MB and FJ in the game with Felix moving to the slot. He spent some time in college as a WR. They may try to use Felix like NO uses Bush. Splitting him out, isolating on LBs, putting him in space.

Were I to guess, I'd estimate Felix to be:

175/750/5

35/350/2

This is a total guess. We'll know more in training camp as we get better reads on his pass blocking, Choice, and the personnel packages.

 
Andy is right. If Dallas didnt think they could sign Barber, they would have drafted Mendenhall. Felix was drafted to be another type of weapon, another way to attack a defense. Mendy is very similar to MB.

 
Eh. Kick returner and change-of-pace back. MB3's still the man in Dallas by a wide margin.
You mean the 204 carry Barber? How much is he "the man" if he only has that few carries?Edit: Oh, and BTW... How many games did he start last year?
Zero in the regular season, 1 in the post season. But he's the starter this year.....on the flip side, how many games did any other running backs playing on Dallas right now behind Barber start last year in the NFL?
I'm just saying that it's hard for him to be "still" the man when he wasn't really "the man" last year either.I just really wonder what the Cowboys are thinking. I personally think he could be "the man" but with his low carry numbers and the fact they felt compelled to spend a 1st on Jones, it makes me wonder what they want from him. I doubt they want more than they got last year.
I personally don't like that they spent a NO. 1 pick on a RB. Now, Felix may be very good and I'll be happy he's on the team, but I'll say it even if Felix ends up being rookie of the year somehow......I wasn't for drafting a Rb in the first when they had Mb3 on the team. I think it had something to do with the Cowboys having two NO. 1 picks but still, a NO. 1 pick is a No. 1 pick and you want to make the most out of it.I understand your points but I do think they'll want more out of him this year. For starters, he's in the game first which is something entirely new. I just think that'll equate to more carries....nothing crazy but I don't know how you don't get more when you're now the starter, but who knows for sure.
 
This is one of the more difficult projections because we just don't know how he's going to be used. Will he spell MB? Probably. How much will depend on his pass blocking and what Tashard Choice looks like. We don't think MB will get materially more touches this year, but where JJ's touches go is still yet to be determined.In mini-camps, they also ran some sets with both MB and FJ in the game with Felix moving to the slot. He spent some time in college as a WR. They may try to use Felix like NO uses Bush. Splitting him out, isolating on LBs, putting him in space.Were I to guess, I'd estimate Felix to be: 175/750/535/350/2This is a total guess. We'll know more in training camp as we get better reads on his pass blocking, Choice, and the personnel packages.
If Mb3 is healthy all season, I'd be shocked if Felix Jones get 175 carries this season. I actually think it would be a good thing because if he gets 175 carries, that means he's very good to steal 175 touches from Barber who I know is good. I'm looking forward to seeing him play......I think.
 
Felix Jones is a big play, "take it to the house" guy. I am hoping the Cowboys use him in a Reggie Bush-like role. Put MBIII and Felix on the field at the same time and they both will excel. I know Felix didn't catch a lot of balls at Arkansas, but he does have great hands and can fly. If they use him like this I predict:

165 carries/743 yards/6 TD's

48 catches/512 yards/4 TD's

Optimistic----maybe, but this kid is really a lot more talented than most of us know.

 
There seems to be a consensus in terms of numbers of yards and td's.

It's the touches that we seem to be debating, which means we're trying to figure out what role he'll have in the offense.

Good luck with that, eh? :bag:

 
Meh - not easily impressed with typical big D hype machine. There are a lot of fast running backs out there that are marginal at best - see Norwood - see Michael Bennett. I am thinking big D will be sorry they passed on Mendenhall.

495 yards - 2 tds rush

225 yards, 31 catches - 2 tds

 
There seems to be a consensus in terms of numbers of yards and td's.
The consensus has him pegged as a top 20 RB, which I can't see happening. If the stars are aligned, perhaps he's a top 36 guy, but no more. That would put him more in the range of:650/250/5
 
in year 1, i think he'll assume somewhat of a lesser role than what JJ had last year:125-525-420-175-2
This.I can see bumping those receptions up but maybe even lowering the rushing yards. I think given his size (6'0"/200#) he'll have trouble making a large impact rushing in the NFL as a change of pace back. I just don't see Dallas giving him a whole series or two to run a wide spectrum of plays until they know he can pass block. I think they'll use him to sub in for specific roles and plays and that will limit his overall production more than anything.
 
Felix Jones is going to be on the field a lot. More than most of you think. I think Garrett have a similar role to what Reggie Bush has with the Saints (2006). He's going to use him in space. He'll be used in motion & lined up on the slot a lot. Garrett drafted him with the sole purpose of complementing to Barber by using him primarily on the outside. The Cowboys aren't going to be successful with Jones just running toss left / toss right via standard formations. So how do you think they're going to get Felix Jones the ball outside / in space then? They're going to have to throw it to him quite a bit.

Jones doesn't have great hands like Bush, but they are still good (Keep in mind I'm not comparing FJ to Bush at all, rather just how they are used). Noting Felix's lack of catches at Arkansas is irrelevant. Mcfadden had very few catches in his career either. Arkansas just didn't run an offense that threw the ball to it's backs.

145-675

4 TD's

40-325

3 TD's

 
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we will see FJ and MBIII on the field together a lot.

i dont know what to expect yet, but i think he'll be better than JJ. he's another weapon in Tony Romo's arsenal. and he'll have one of the better lines in the NFL blocking for him. :rolleyes:

 
It was the Dallas offensive line that got tired, not Marion Barber. Barber looked spectacular versus the Giants in the playoffs, the big fellas got winded and the Giant defensive line took over. The Giant defensive line also dominated New England's offensive line as well as I never saw Brady get knocked around like he did in the Super Bowl, so I'm more inclined to give kudos to the Giants than I am to say MB3 can't handle the full load.
That is such a weak excuse. Barber has consistently torn it up when coming off the bench in the third and fourth quarters behind the same OL. The only piece that changed in that game was WHEN Barber carried the ball. He got a lot of carries early and faded in the second half. Dallas dominated NE's DL all game long. Sorry, but Barber was the one who wore down.As for Felix Jones... College opportunity != NFL opportunity & college production != NFL production.However, talent is talent. And one thing Jones has is loads of talent. The question is, how much will he have the opportunity to showcase that talent?I put together a post quite some time back evaluating how the Cowboys have used their RBs since Barber was there, and what is likely the rotation moving forward. Realistically Jones should see 140-150 carries, IF Barber maintains the primary role in the rotation. (If Barber continues to wear down in games, which IMO is very likely, then I can see them moving him back into the 'closer' role. I don't see that as a high probability, but it is a possibility.)Jones should also see 40-50 catches. He is a better receiver than Barber, and they have already spoken of playing him in the slot, while Barber is in the backfield. Jason Garrett has said he'd like to use Barber & Jones the way the McAllister and Bush were used during Bush's rookie season. That split was 155 rush and 88 receptions for Bush, 244 rush and 30 receptions for McAllister. That, IMO is a very realistic, albeit a little high on receptions, projection of opportunity for both of the RBs.So, the next question is, how will Jones perform with that level of opportunity? Well, being that the NFL is very different than the college game, it's difficult to say. However, Jones has played some very good college defenses, and fared very well. He has one of the highest YPCs EVER for a college RB. He is one of the fastest RBs to enter the NFL this season, and he has tremendous moves. Some rated him a better prospect than McFadden, and one of his coaches said they should have given him more carries. Bottom line, the kid is a player, a hard worker, and a team oriented individual.I can easily see him averaging over 5, even possibly near 6 YPC in the NFL.So my projections:142 carries, 5.4 YPC, 767 yards, 6 TDs55 receptions, 8.2 YPR, 451 yards, 4 TDsGiving him a total of 1218 yards, 10 TDs
 
People just hate Barber cause he's beautiful.....when he's running the ball that is.

I don't understand why everybody always wants to bring up the "he can't carry the whole load, because he'll get injured" argument. Name for me just one injury he's sustained so far in the NFL.

You got served. **robot, lawnmower, pick up the change, running man, shake the dice, break it down**

 
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You're basing that on one run with a bunch of shoddy tackling??I think too many people are looking at Jones through Barber-colored glasses. Yes, Barber runs very tough, and when he was running with Julius Jones, Julius' completely lackluster performance made Barber's heart and work ethic stand out even more. But there's need for a bit of a reality check with Barber. He's never had more than 204 carries on a season. He's never rushed for over a 1,000 yards. And for the situations he's played in, his 4.8 YPC isn't even all that impressive (compare that to Norwood's 6.2 YPC on 202 attempts). He's a TD machine, and a good running back, but he's not a GREAT running back, and he's not good enough to keep a talent like Felix Jones relegated to the bench for too long.

 
I think 4.8 ypc is impressive considering the situations he's been in.... considering he's the 4th down RB and the goaline RB, situations where getting 1 yard is what you're being asked to do and is a good thing. He is good, not great but we don't know what kind of talent Felix Jones will bring to the NFL game. It is possible for Felix Jones to make an impact, but I'll say this. He will have to be very good......very fast to make an impact on the Dallas offense. Marion Barber knows this offense inside and out now and has worked himself into the starter, Felix Jones has a lot of catching up to do. He better pick up on the passing game/blocking quickly which is what's tough for rookie's to do or he'll find himself not in the game as much as Felix fans had hoped.

Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure but the main argument people are using is that Barber hasn't had 250 or 300 carries in a season.....Felix Jones hasn't had 1. Felix Jones is the guy who has to prove he belongs on the field.......Barber has already done that.

 
Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure but the main argument people are using is that Barber hasn't had 250 or 300 carries in a season.....Felix Jones hasn't had 1. Felix Jones is the guy who has to prove he belongs on the field.......Barber has already done that.
You're right - neither one has had a 1,000 yard NFL season. But Barber has had 3 years of opportunity to put up 1,000 yards, and hasn't. His only competition was Julius Jones.The only thing we have to compare is college stats.Barber had 1-1,000 yard season, and played behind Lawrence Maroney, clearly not the best RB in his class, nor considered a once in a decade talent.Felix Jones has had 2-1,000 yard seasons, playing behind Darren McFadden, largely considered best in his class, and a once in a decade talent.Barber had a total of 18 receptions his entire college career. Felix had almost that in both his last two seasons (15,16) and totaled 39 on his college career.Barber had 24 TDs in college, Jones had 23.We know what Barber can do, we've seen it. The reason people keep pointing to his never having a 250 carry season is because after three years in the league, if he could carry the load, he probably would have by now, ESPECIALLY with how bad Julius Jones has been.We don't know whether Felix Jones can or not. But I don't really see a lot of people saying he will. Most think he will get around 150 carries. That's not unreasonable at all.What's unreasonable is to think a guy who has never seen even 210 carries in 3 years is all of the sudden going to see so many carries that Felix Jones, a first round pick who had a better collegiate career, will barely see the field.
 
So my projections:142 carries, 5.4 YPC, 767 yards, 6 TDs55 receptions, 8.2 YPR, 451 yards, 4 TDsGiving him a total of 1218 yards, 10 TDs
we agree on carries, but if he catches 55 passes, i'll eat my foot.....with a little ketchup.
 
We know what Barber can do, we've seen it. The reason people keep pointing to his never having a 250 carry season is because after three years in the league, if he could carry the load, he probably would have by now, ESPECIALLY with how bad Julius Jones has been.
this is just wrong. do you remember how good people thought Julius Jones was in 2006? he was being drafted in the 1st round of fantasy drafts that year. after the Seattle game at the end of 2005, everyone thought he was a stud-to-come for the next 10 years. Barber had the role he had because, at the time, he was a backup. it doesn't mean he wasn't better than JJ. in fact, last year is when EVERYONE realized he was better. Do we really need to go through the list of RBs that were better than the back in front of them on the depth chart but were held back?maybe Jones is the phenom-back you think he is, maybe not, but Barber is equally likely to have the capability to be a workhorse, IMO moreso.
 
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Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure but the main argument people are using is that Barber hasn't had 250 or 300 carries in a season.....Felix Jones hasn't had 1. Felix Jones is the guy who has to prove he belongs on the field.......Barber has already done that.
You're right - neither one has had a 1,000 yard NFL season. But Barber has had 3 years of opportunity to put up 1,000 yards, and hasn't. His only competition was Julius Jones.The only thing we have to compare is college stats.

Barber had 1-1,000 yard season, and played behind Lawrence Maroney, clearly not the best RB in his class, nor considered a once in a decade talent.

Felix Jones has had 2-1,000 yard seasons, playing behind Darren McFadden, largely considered best in his class, and a once in a decade talent.

Barber had a total of 18 receptions his entire college career. Felix had almost that in both his last two seasons (15,16) and totaled 39 on his college career.

Barber had 24 TDs in college, Jones had 23.

We know what Barber can do, we've seen it. The reason people keep pointing to his never having a 250 carry season is because after three years in the league, if he could carry the load, he probably would have by now, ESPECIALLY with how bad Julius Jones has been.

We don't know whether Felix Jones can or not. But I don't really see a lot of people saying he will. Most think he will get around 150 carries. That's not unreasonable at all.

What's unreasonable is to think a guy who has never seen even 210 carries in 3 years is all of the sudden going to see so many carries that Felix Jones, a first round pick who had a better collegiate career, will barely see the field.
Not to hijack this thread, but this may be overstating it a bit. If McFadden is a once in a decade talent, what would you call Peterson who came out one year earlier.
 
Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure but the main argument people are using is that Barber hasn't had 250 or 300 carries in a season.....Felix Jones hasn't had 1. Felix Jones is the guy who has to prove he belongs on the field.......Barber has already done that.
You're right - neither one has had a 1,000 yard NFL season. But Barber has had 3 years of opportunity to put up 1,000 yards, and hasn't. His only competition was Julius Jones.The only thing we have to compare is college stats.

Barber had 1-1,000 yard season, and played behind Lawrence Maroney, clearly not the best RB in his class, nor considered a once in a decade talent.

Felix Jones has had 2-1,000 yard seasons, playing behind Darren McFadden, largely considered best in his class, and a once in a decade talent.

Barber had a total of 18 receptions his entire college career. Felix had almost that in both his last two seasons (15,16) and totaled 39 on his college career.

Barber had 24 TDs in college, Jones had 23.

We know what Barber can do, we've seen it. The reason people keep pointing to his never having a 250 carry season is because after three years in the league, if he could carry the load, he probably would have by now, ESPECIALLY with how bad Julius Jones has been.

We don't know whether Felix Jones can or not. But I don't really see a lot of people saying he will. Most think he will get around 150 carries. That's not unreasonable at all.

What's unreasonable is to think a guy who has never seen even 210 carries in 3 years is all of the sudden going to see so many carries that Felix Jones, a first round pick who had a better collegiate career, will barely see the field.
Not to hijack this thread, but this may be overstating it a bit. If McFadden is a once in a decade talent, what would you call Peterson who came out one year earlier.
I suppose he meant the decade starting this year.
 
This is one of the more difficult projections because we just don't know how he's going to be used. Will he spell MB? Probably. How much will depend on his pass blocking and what Tashard Choice looks like. We don't think MB will get materially more touches this year, but where JJ's touches go is still yet to be determined.In mini-camps, they also ran some sets with both MB and FJ in the game with Felix moving to the slot. He spent some time in college as a WR. They may try to use Felix like NO uses Bush. Splitting him out, isolating on LBs, putting him in space.Were I to guess, I'd estimate Felix to be: 175/750/535/350/2This is a total guess. We'll know more in training camp as we get better reads on his pass blocking, Choice, and the personnel packages.
As usual......Ridge is making lots of sense about the Cowboys.160/710/640/385/1
 
Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure but the main argument people are using is that Barber hasn't had 250 or 300 carries in a season.....Felix Jones hasn't had 1. Felix Jones is the guy who has to prove he belongs on the field.......Barber has already done that.
You're right - neither one has had a 1,000 yard NFL season. But Barber has had 3 years of opportunity to put up 1,000 yards, and hasn't. His only competition was Julius Jones.The only thing we have to compare is college stats.

Barber had 1-1,000 yard season, and played behind Lawrence Maroney, clearly not the best RB in his class, nor considered a once in a decade talent.

Felix Jones has had 2-1,000 yard seasons, playing behind Darren McFadden, largely considered best in his class, and a once in a decade talent.

Barber had a total of 18 receptions his entire college career. Felix had almost that in both his last two seasons (15,16) and totaled 39 on his college career.

Barber had 24 TDs in college, Jones had 23.

We know what Barber can do, we've seen it. The reason people keep pointing to his never having a 250 carry season is because after three years in the league, if he could carry the load, he probably would have by now, ESPECIALLY with how bad Julius Jones has been.

We don't know whether Felix Jones can or not. But I don't really see a lot of people saying he will. Most think he will get around 150 carries. That's not unreasonable at all.

What's unreasonable is to think a guy who has never seen even 210 carries in 3 years is all of the sudden going to see so many carries that Felix Jones, a first round pick who had a better collegiate career, will barely see the field.
Not to hijack this thread, but this may be overstating it a bit. If McFadden is a once in a decade talent, what would you call Peterson who came out one year earlier.
I suppose he meant the decade starting this year.
Peterson was also considered a "once in a decade" type of talent. Many had McFadden rated as highly as Peterson. Just because they both came out within the same ten year span, doesn't mean they weren't considered to have that elite level of talent the separates them from the rest of the RBs drafted within a certain time period.
 
So my projections:142 carries, 5.4 YPC, 767 yards, 6 TDs55 receptions, 8.2 YPR, 451 yards, 4 TDsGiving him a total of 1218 yards, 10 TDs
we agree on carries, but if he catches 55 passes, i'll eat my foot.....with a little ketchup.
The 55 is purely based on Garrett talking about how much they plan on using Jones in the passing game. I agree it's high, but it's far short of what Bush saw as a rookie, and that's how they want to use him. They are going to need him at receiver as well, since they didn't address that position in the off season.
 
Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure but the main argument people are using is that Barber hasn't had 250 or 300 carries in a season.....Felix Jones hasn't had 1. Felix Jones is the guy who has to prove he belongs on the field.......Barber has already done that.
You're right - neither one has had a 1,000 yard NFL season. But Barber has had 3 years of opportunity to put up 1,000 yards, and hasn't. His only competition was Julius Jones.The only thing we have to compare is college stats.

Barber had 1-1,000 yard season, and played behind Lawrence Maroney, clearly not the best RB in his class, nor considered a once in a decade talent.

Felix Jones has had 2-1,000 yard seasons, playing behind Darren McFadden, largely considered best in his class, and a once in a decade talent.

Barber had a total of 18 receptions his entire college career. Felix had almost that in both his last two seasons (15,16) and totaled 39 on his college career.

Barber had 24 TDs in college, Jones had 23.

We know what Barber can do, we've seen it. The reason people keep pointing to his never having a 250 carry season is because after three years in the league, if he could carry the load, he probably would have by now, ESPECIALLY with how bad Julius Jones has been.

We don't know whether Felix Jones can or not. But I don't really see a lot of people saying he will. Most think he will get around 150 carries. That's not unreasonable at all.

What's unreasonable is to think a guy who has never seen even 210 carries in 3 years is all of the sudden going to see so many carries that Felix Jones, a first round pick who had a better collegiate career, will barely see the field.
Not to hijack this thread, but this may be overstating it a bit. If McFadden is a once in a decade talent, what would you call Peterson who came out one year earlier.
I suppose he meant the decade starting this year.
Peterson was also considered a "once in a decade" type of talent. Many had McFadden rated as highly as Peterson. Just because they both came out within the same ten year span, doesn't mean they weren't considered to have that elite level of talent the separates them from the rest of the RBs drafted within a certain time period.
Bush was considered the same by many. Maybe I'm taking that term too literally, but I don't see how you can have a "once in a decade" talent three straight seasons.
 
Again, I don't think anyone knows for sure but the main argument people are using is that Barber hasn't had 250 or 300 carries in a season.....Felix Jones hasn't had 1. Felix Jones is the guy who has to prove he belongs on the field.......Barber has already done that.
You're right - neither one has had a 1,000 yard NFL season. But Barber has had 3 years of opportunity to put up 1,000 yards, and hasn't. His only competition was Julius Jones.The only thing we have to compare is college stats.

Barber had 1-1,000 yard season, and played behind Lawrence Maroney, clearly not the best RB in his class, nor considered a once in a decade talent.

Felix Jones has had 2-1,000 yard seasons, playing behind Darren McFadden, largely considered best in his class, and a once in a decade talent.

Barber had a total of 18 receptions his entire college career. Felix had almost that in both his last two seasons (15,16) and totaled 39 on his college career.

Barber had 24 TDs in college, Jones had 23.

We know what Barber can do, we've seen it. The reason people keep pointing to his never having a 250 carry season is because after three years in the league, if he could carry the load, he probably would have by now, ESPECIALLY with how bad Julius Jones has been.

We don't know whether Felix Jones can or not. But I don't really see a lot of people saying he will. Most think he will get around 150 carries. That's not unreasonable at all.

What's unreasonable is to think a guy who has never seen even 210 carries in 3 years is all of the sudden going to see so many carries that Felix Jones, a first round pick who had a better collegiate career, will barely see the field.
Not to hijack this thread, but this may be overstating it a bit. If McFadden is a once in a decade talent, what would you call Peterson who came out one year earlier.
I suppose he meant the decade starting this year.
Peterson was also considered a "once in a decade" type of talent. Many had McFadden rated as highly as Peterson. Just because they both came out within the same ten year span, doesn't mean they weren't considered to have that elite level of talent the separates them from the rest of the RBs drafted within a certain time period.
Bush was considered the same by many. Maybe I'm taking that term too literally, but I don't see how you can have a "once in a decade" talent three straight seasons.
Yeah, you're taking the term too literally.Before them, I can't think of the last prospect rated so incredibly high... maybe Ricky Williams, before that Marshall Faulk?

 
So my projections:142 carries, 5.4 YPC, 767 yards, 6 TDs55 receptions, 8.2 YPR, 451 yards, 4 TDsGiving him a total of 1218 yards, 10 TDs
we agree on carries, but if he catches 55 passes, i'll eat my foot.....with a little ketchup.
The 55 is purely based on Garrett talking about how much they plan on using Jones in the passing game. I agree it's high, but it's far short of what Bush saw as a rookie, and that's how they want to use him. They are going to need him at receiver as well, since they didn't address that position in the off season.
I suppose I'd feel more comfortable with your assesment if Dallas had similar personnel to NO when Bush came in. But TO and Witten are far superior to what the Saints had and will demand the ball on a more consistent basis. Plus MB will still get passes thrown his way.
 
So my projections:142 carries, 5.4 YPC, 767 yards, 6 TDs55 receptions, 8.2 YPR, 451 yards, 4 TDsGiving him a total of 1218 yards, 10 TDs
we agree on carries, but if he catches 55 passes, i'll eat my foot.....with a little ketchup.
The 55 is purely based on Garrett talking about how much they plan on using Jones in the passing game. I agree it's high, but it's far short of what Bush saw as a rookie, and that's how they want to use him. They are going to need him at receiver as well, since they didn't address that position in the off season.
I suppose I'd feel more comfortable with your assesment if Dallas had similar personnel to NO when Bush came in. But TO and Witten are far superior to what the Saints had and will demand the ball on a more consistent basis. Plus MB will still get passes thrown his way.
I agree the Saints have no one like TO... but few teams do. Still the Saints did have Colston. I don't expect Jones to get 88 receptions, largely because of Owens and Witten. But it wouldn't surprise me if Jones ends up with the 3rd most receptions on the team, and takes some away from Witten, whose 96 receptions is unheard of for a TE (Witten was in the 60's the prior two years, but did have 87 in '04 when they had no WRs).As for Barber, I highly doubt he sees the 44 receptions he had last season. I'd guess he probably gets close to 24 near what he had the previous two seasons.
 
Felix's numbers are hard to predict considering we don't know his role. However, I think he will be used and will have quite a few big plays in that offense. I love his talent, and think he will be a very good NFL player. For his rookie season...

150 carries for 690 yards

35 catches for 350 yards

8 total Tds

 
switz said:
fourd said:
switz said:
joffer said:
switz said:
So my projections:142 carries, 5.4 YPC, 767 yards, 6 TDs55 receptions, 8.2 YPR, 451 yards, 4 TDsGiving him a total of 1218 yards, 10 TDs
we agree on carries, but if he catches 55 passes, i'll eat my foot.....with a little ketchup.
The 55 is purely based on Garrett talking about how much they plan on using Jones in the passing game. I agree it's high, but it's far short of what Bush saw as a rookie, and that's how they want to use him. They are going to need him at receiver as well, since they didn't address that position in the off season.
I suppose I'd feel more comfortable with your assesment if Dallas had similar personnel to NO when Bush came in. But TO and Witten are far superior to what the Saints had and will demand the ball on a more consistent basis. Plus MB will still get passes thrown his way.
I agree the Saints have no one like TO... but few teams do. Still the Saints did have Colston. I don't expect Jones to get 88 receptions, largely because of Owens and Witten. But it wouldn't surprise me if Jones ends up with the 3rd most receptions on the team, and takes some away from Witten, whose 96 receptions is unheard of for a TE (Witten was in the 60's the prior two years, but did have 87 in '04 when they had no WRs).As for Barber, I highly doubt he sees the 44 receptions he had last season. I'd guess he probably gets close to 24 near what he had the previous two seasons.
Lots of good stuff being discussed here. Lets flesh out a couple points a bit more.Barber going back to 24 catches would probably mean he's not the 3rd down back. Thats not yet determined because we don't know if Felix can pass block. They WONT put someone back there who can't pass protect. Romo is too important. Bye bye season if Romo goes down. Now if Felix shows he can block, then yes, he probably becomes the 3rd down back and Barber's catches go down to 24ish.Dallas has 4 skill positions set. TO, Witten, Crayton, and Barber. The 5th is a group that includes Felix, 2nd round draft pick TE Martellus Bennett, 3rd TE Tony Curtis, Sam Hurd, Miles Austin, and FB Deon Anderson. The 5th guy on the field is going to change game by game as Dallas tries to exploit matchups. What this is saying is that Felix may or may not be a significant part of the game plan week to week. His numbers are likely to be highly volatile as the season progresses.Thats what makes forecasting his season number so difficult. We don't know how much Felix will sub for Barber as the RB on the field. That will depend on his pass blocking and other subs like Choice. He further has significant competition to be the 5th skill position player on the field. Hurd and Austin are better receivers. Bennett, Curtis and Anderson are better blockers. He'll be the 5th skill spot only when matchups are favorable to him. The other guys when its not.This brings up another point. He won't replace Hurd or Austin in the spread formation. Those two guys are 3rd year vet WRs versus a rookie RB who spent a touch of time at WR in college. Don't argue Felix is the better receiver. (There's a reason rookie WRs struggle and it isnt physical talent.) If he gets on the field in the spread offense it will be as the RB. And that will be only if he can pass block.So I'm having a bit of trouble agreeing to a higher catch total. Its possible it happens. But a whole lot has to fall right to make it happen.
 

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