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Player Spotlight: Chris Johnson (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Chris Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
On a team with a pretty good oline, and no good RB or WR's, Chris Johnson has big upside. I dont think Vince Young is very good at making the quick reads downfiled and getting the ball to his WR's, almost Vick-like. That could lead to alot of short passes/dumpoffs to Johnson, especially without a TE to speak of. Lendale White will still get his share of carries, but i dont think Johnson can be any worse than White, so he should see his fair share of carries as well. No doubt Chris Johnson comes to the Titans and is instantly their best offensive weapon, and i cant see the Titans not trying to get the ball in his hand 15-18 times a game.

180 carries

810 yards

60 catches

560 yards

7 TD's

 
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On a team with a pretty good oline, and no good RB or WR's, Chris Johnson has big upside. I dont think Vince Young is very good at making the quick reads downfiled and getting the ball to his WR's, almost Vick-like. That could lead to alot of short passes/dumpoffs to Johnson, especially without a TE to speak of. Lendale White will still get his share of carries, but i dont think Johnson can be any worse than White, so he should see his fair share of carries as well. No doubt Chris Johnson comes to the Titans and is instantly their best offensive weapon, and i cant see the Titans not trying to get the ball in his hand 15-18 times a game.180 carries810 yards60 catches560 yards7 TD's
I'd love for this to happen, but I feel it is going a bit far. FatDale seems to have run on a torn meniscus last year so he should improve and the team added Crumpler who if healthy is a TE to speak of. Apart from that, I think VY will improve a bit and if Chris Johnson gets dumpoffs or is split wide, in motion or somehow else being involved. I believe that none of the WRs in TEN will be worthy of the WR1 label but there will be a whole lot of WR3s - and potentially a top 5 TE.As for Mr Johnson my projections are as follows120 carries550 yards55 catches450 yards7 TDs sound about right if he is used this way (and I believe in 'Dinger)
 
I don't know if I buy Chris Johnson as an immediate contributor to the Titans. I think at best he gets on the field on third downs this season, with LenDale taking most of the carries.

I see something more like:

50 carries

220 yards

20 catches

180 yards

3 TDs

 
Johnson will be used more like Reggie Bush and Chester Taylor than Kevin Faulk. White will get the bulk (no pun intended) of the carries inside with Johnson lined up everywhere but at QB.

110/415/4 and 55/410/4

 
Johnson will be used more like Reggie Bush and Chester Taylor than Kevin Faulk. White will get the bulk (no pun intended) of the carries inside with Johnson lined up everywhere but at QB.110/415/4 and 55/410/4
All 3 of those backs listed are used in completely different ways.I see him being used most like Bush, but probably not being featured/used quite as much as Bush.100/450/3 60/400/3A solid RB3 in ppr leagues, not much to look at in non-ppr.Side note: I read a couple weeks ago that they were talking about using him on the goal-line. I dismissed it because it doesn't make any sense to me. However, if it's true, that's a huge bump for this kid.
 
Johnson will be used more like Reggie Bush and Chester Taylor than Kevin Faulk. White will get the bulk (no pun intended) of the carries inside with Johnson lined up everywhere but at QB.

110/415/4 and 55/410/4
All 3 of those backs listed are used in completely different ways.I see him being used most like Bush, but probably not being featured/used quite as much as Bush.

100/450/3

60/400/3

A solid RB3 in ppr leagues, not much to look at in non-ppr.

Side note: I read a couple weeks ago that they were talking about using him on the goal-line. I dismissed it because it doesn't make any sense to me. However, if it's true, that's a huge bump for this kid.
I would be interested if you shared your source.Thanks

 
King of the Jungle said:
tribecalledjeff said:
munchkin said:
Johnson will be used more like Reggie Bush and Chester Taylor than Kevin Faulk. White will get the bulk (no pun intended) of the carries inside with Johnson lined up everywhere but at QB.

110/415/4 and 55/410/4
All 3 of those backs listed are used in completely different ways.I see him being used most like Bush, but probably not being featured/used quite as much as Bush.

100/450/3

60/400/3

A solid RB3 in ppr leagues, not much to look at in non-ppr.

Side note: I read a couple weeks ago that they were talking about using him on the goal-line. I dismissed it because it doesn't make any sense to me. However, if it's true, that's a huge bump for this kid.
I would be interested if you shared your source.Thanks
Yeah I meant to post that earlier, but forgot. It's not impressive, it's just one guy speculating, and I don't agree with him. But anyways, here it is:http://football34.myfantasyleague.com/2008...=10034TheHuddle

Code:
(TheHuddle) The Nashville Tennessean reports Tennessee Titans RB Chris Johnson looked impressive during and after the team's offseason practices. He said he has picked up offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger's offense with ease. 'Everything they're throwing at me, I've got down,' Johnson said. 'If I execute everything they've given me, that will let them go ahead and start adding more ways to get the football in my hands.'Analysis: With two backs in front of him who have had injury/conditioning issues in the past in LenDale White and Chris Henry, Johnson looks to be inching his way up the depth chart. He'll be someone to consider drafting in touchdown-only leagues should the Titans want to protect White and Henry around the goal line.(Article Link)
 
Funbags said:
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
I'll say it here::goodposting:Johnson = M Bennett w/hands. A great alternative to White and will see a fair chunk of total touches, but he'll catch more than he'll run. A sleeper in PPR leagues at most. White should still get his.
 
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He's going to run the ball more than people think but he's not going to have half as many receptions as carries either. Expect a high YPC too.

 
For a team that lacks offensive fireworks (in general) and Johnson being tiny, I don't think he's too valuable in TD heavy scoring leagues. He was drafted as the 8th RB off the board in our dynasty rookie draft. Owners went to some of the bigger "TD hog" type backs later in the NFL's 1st and 2nd round before someone pulled the gun on "Bush Jr".

 
I don't see him getting as many TD's as most are predicting but the yardage should be there if he's used right.

100 carries

430 yards

45 catches

450 yards

3 total TD's

 
Found this on Total Titans today and thought may be of interest.

By Drexel Perry.

"Due to his versatility, the expectations surrounding explosive rookie RB Chris Johnson have been centered upon his potential role as a dynamic jack-of-all trades back in the Titans’ offense.

Weeks ago, on this site, it was speculated that Chris Johnson’s ability to run in between the tackles and the potential for him to carry a little more weight without sacrificing his elite speed could lead to CJ becoming a primary back down the road.

If it’s up to Mike Heimerdinger, Johnson’s transition into being a main back could begin as soon as 2008.

In a radio interview conducted by Titans Radio, around the 9 minute mark, Dinger expresses his desire for Johnson to carry the ball 15-20 times per game. Despite Chris’s ability to catch the football and contribute on returns, Dinger’s hopes are geared around CJ making an immediate contribution in the running game.

Dinger compares Johnson to current Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis, saying that CJ is around the same size as Portis when he entered the league. Portis averaged about 17 carries per game in his rookie debut in 2002, running for 1,508 yards while scoring 15 touchdowns on 273 rushing attempts.

It will be interesting to see what Dinger’s desire for Johnson to carry the ball 15-20 times a game will mean for incumbent LenDale White.

Last season, the Titans carried the ball 543 times while averaging roughly 34 carries per game. If the Titans run as much as they did last year, you’re probably looking at Johnson and White sharing the workload."

http://mvn.com/nfl-titans/2008/07/27/chris...carries-a-game/

 
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
Ummm.... no. While I like Chris Johnson a lot, he is not the best RB in the class, probably not even top-3 in the class.
Is he better than Marion Barber III?
Where does Marion Barber fall into all this!?! He was talking ROOKIE DRAFT CLASS. Not 2008 RB class... :lmao:
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
I'll say it here: :rolleyes:

Johnson = M Bennett w/hands. A great alternative to White and will see a fair chunk of total touches, but he'll catch more than he'll run. A sleeper in PPR leagues at most. White should still get his.
:unsure:
 
Found this on Total Titans today and thought may be of interest.

By Drexel Perry.

"Due to his versatility, the expectations surrounding explosive rookie RB Chris Johnson have been centered upon his potential role as a dynamic jack-of-all trades back in the Titans’ offense.

Weeks ago, on this site, it was speculated that Chris Johnson’s ability to run in between the tackles and the potential for him to carry a little more weight without sacrificing his elite speed could lead to CJ becoming a primary back down the road.

If it’s up to Mike Heimerdinger, Johnson’s transition into being a main back could begin as soon as 2008.

In a radio interview conducted by Titans Radio, around the 9 minute mark, Dinger expresses his desire for Johnson to carry the ball 15-20 times per game. Despite Chris’s ability to catch the football and contribute on returns, Dinger’s hopes are geared around CJ making an immediate contribution in the running game.

Dinger compares Johnson to current Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis, saying that CJ is around the same size as Portis when he entered the league. Portis averaged about 17 carries per game in his rookie debut in 2002, running for 1,508 yards while scoring 15 touchdowns on 273 rushing attempts.

It will be interesting to see what Dinger’s desire for Johnson to carry the ball 15-20 times a game will mean for incumbent LenDale White.

Last season, the Titans carried the ball 543 times while averaging roughly 34 carries per game. If the Titans run as much as they did last year, you’re probably looking at Johnson and White sharing the workload."

http://mvn.com/nfl-titans/2008/07/27/chris...carries-a-game/
This will feed Johnson owner's egos for weeks.
 
This will feed Johnson owner's egos for weeks.
:goodposting: I'm a CJ owner and I'm not buying the "15-20 carries per game" as a rookie. I do think he'll do well with the carries he gets, but he seems more of a 10 carry, 5-8 reception type back. Maybe Dinger wants to run the ball 50 times per game?
 
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
Ummm.... no. While I like Chris Johnson a lot, he is not the best RB in the class, probably not even top-3 in the class.
Is he better than Marion Barber III?
Where does Marion Barber fall into all this!?! He was talking ROOKIE DRAFT CLASS. Not 2008 RB class... :wall:
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
I'll say it here: :wall:

Johnson = M Bennett w/hands. A great alternative to White and will see a fair chunk of total touches, but he'll catch more than he'll run. A sleeper in PPR leagues at most. White should still get his.
:rolleyes:
If the coaching staff is as enamored w/ him as all indications have led us to believe (including the pre-draft leak & draft position), I'm hoping for a Reggie Bush/Duce McAllister type of dynamic though not quite Reggie's #s due to a lesser offense and better defense. Similar #s to McFadden this year in TDs and receptions, but fewer rushing yards.
 
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
Can we get a prediction here on what he will do in 2008. And maybe a prediction for 2009 if it's too hard to predict with Lendale still being there this year and muddying up the situation?
 
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
Ummm.... no. While I like Chris Johnson a lot, he is not the best RB in the class, probably not even top-3 in the class.
Is he better than Marion Barber III?
Where does Marion Barber fall into all this!?! He was talking ROOKIE DRAFT CLASS. Not 2008 RB class... :own3d:
The poster that I was replying to thinks that Felix Jones, right now, is better than MBIII. My reply was to him in reference to that. Thanks for your 2 cents, though.
 
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
Ummm.... no. While I like Chris Johnson a lot, he is not the best RB in the class, probably not even top-3 in the class.
Is he better than Marion Barber III?
Where does Marion Barber fall into all this!?! He was talking ROOKIE DRAFT CLASS. Not 2008 RB class... :thumbup:
The poster that I was replying to thinks that Felix Jones, right now, is better than MBIII. My reply was to him in reference to that. Thanks for your 2 cents, though.
Which clearly makes Chris Johnson NOT the best rookie RB :lmao:
 
I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
Ummm.... no. While I like Chris Johnson a lot, he is not the best RB in the class, probably not even top-3 in the class.
Agreed, that says more about the quality and depth of this year's RB class than about Chris Johnson as a player. IMO, McFadden is clearly the best RB prospect, with uberstud potential. And Stewart is not far behind if he is healthy. I would put Chris Johnson at 3 behind them, but obviously you can make arguments for Mendenhall and others. Still, it doesn't mean that they ALL don't have a ton of talent and potential. And,based on ADP's, I think CJ is the best value of the rookie rb class.
 
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I too think that CJ will be the best RB from the 08 class.

here are my predictions:

192 carries

960 yards

40 receptions

495 yards

KOR

26 yard avg

Combined TT yards

2200 yards

10 tds

Everything coming out of Titans camp says this guy will be special. He has it all. Power, vision, speed, hands, smarts, elusiveness, ball security, work ethic. The only question marks are durability and NFL size.

bildecm7.jpg


 
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I'll say it here. Chris Johnson is the best runningback in the '08 class.
Ummm.... no. While I like Chris Johnson a lot, he is not the best RB in the class, probably not even top-3 in the class.
Is he better than Marion Barber III?
Where does Marion Barber fall into all this!?! He was talking ROOKIE DRAFT CLASS. Not 2008 RB class... :wall:
The poster that I was replying to thinks that Felix Jones, right now, is better than MBIII. My reply was to him in reference to that. Thanks for your 2 cents, though.
Which clearly makes Chris Johnson NOT the best rookie RB :D
:D that's not what i asked!Referring to the article, I did not realize the Titans rushed 540 times last year. Let's say CJ can get even 30% of that. (I think he could get more, but that seems conservative). That'd be 162, or about 10/game. With his speed and hands, I think 3 catches a game is fair, at maybe 7 ypc. That could give him something like:160-750-448-340-2That'd be a solid RB2 in ppr leagues. And remember, that's only at 30% of the carries. To me, this is this kid's floor, with plenty of room above it.
 
Understanding the hype that goes on for untested players at this time of year, I'm still extremely excited to watch Chris Johnson this season. I think this kid has a real shot to make some noise as a fantasy factor immediately. As of right now I'm projecting him for:

150 carries - 630 yards - 4 TD's

60 catches - 520 yards - 3 TD's

1150 yards and 7 TD's with quite a bit more upside IMO.

The latest news

(RotoWire) Update: Johnson took on more of a workload in the backfield on Monday, and other places, and continues to impress. He has yet to showcase his full speed but still has dazzled the coaching staff, the Tennessean reports. Analysis: Johnson got the opportunity because LenDale White left practice early Monday afternoon for personal reasons and will not practice on Tuesday. Johnson appears to be the favortie to win the backup running back job over Chris Henry.

 
Johnson appears to be the favorite to win the backup running back job over Chris Henry.
To me this is the key. If CJ is #2 then we know he will get some opportunities to spell LW on 1st/2nd down in addition to 3rd and long situations due to his pass catching abilities. At #3 behind CH it might take several additional weeks or an injury to LW or CH before he gets a real opportunity for relevant playing time.
 
Johnson appears to be the favorite to win the backup running back job over Chris Henry.
To me this is the key. If CJ is #2 then we know he will get some opportunities to spell LW on 1st/2nd down in addition to 3rd and long situations due to his pass catching abilities. At #3 behind CH it might take several additional weeks or an injury to LW or CH before he gets a real opportunity for relevant playing time.
Absolutely correct. The key to me though is that they took Johnson in the 1st round and as such, I don't see any way (outside of him completely bombing in camp, which doesn't appear to be happening) that they don't have him as the primary backup to LenDale. He's virtually locked into the 3rd down role due to his skill set and his playmaking ability should get him more and more 1st/2nd down work as the season progresses.
 
tribecalledjeff said:
Referring to the article, I did not realize the Titans rushed 540 times last year. Let's say CJ can get even 30% of that. (I think he could get more, but that seems conservative). That'd be 162, or about 10/game. With his speed and hands, I think 3 catches a game is fair, at maybe 7 ypc. That could give him something like:160-750-448-340-2That'd be a solid RB2 in ppr leagues. And remember, that's only at 30% of the carries. To me, this is this kid's floor, with plenty of room above it.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: history shows us that 1st round picks always get significant playing time - the only exceptions are significant injuries and QBs who sit for a year by design.This prediction looks very good to me, thought I think the YPC seem a little high. In my eyes, Chris Johnson is looking like he could be the steal of the draft. LenDale White hasn't exactly set the league on fire, either with his play or his attitude. I could easily see Johnson becoming the primary back in TN. TN RBs will probably get about 450 rushes (remember that VY will probably get about 100 himself, so the team rushes number is a little skewed) and I could easily see Johnson getting 150-200 of them, with plenty of touches through the air. A thousand combined yards seems like the very least he will do, barring injury.170 carries for 700 rushing yards with 40 catches for 300 receiving yards and 6 TDs is where I will go - and I'll say I think that is the very bottom floor for him.
 
Understanding the hype that goes on for untested players at this time of year, I'm still extremely excited to watch Chris Johnson this season. I think this kid has a real shot to make some noise as a fantasy factor immediately. As of right now I'm projecting him for:

150 carries - 630 yards - 4 TD's

60 catches - 520 yards - 3 TD's

1150 yards and 7 TD's with quite a bit more upside IMO.
This is fairly close to what I would project, if I did projections. I do agree that he has some upside, as I don't think as much of LenDale White anymore (I did at draft time) when you concider what Travis Henry looked like there fairly recently, and even Chris Brown when he was healthy (all 8 weeks of his tenure). This team has been a run-oriented offense since the HC took over, even w/ a MVP McNair. If CJ III is in fact better than White, and McCariens fills in as well as it sounds like he's doing, with the addition of Crumpler and hopeful (O.K. expected) maturation of Young, this could become a much more dynamic & quick scoring offense than we're used to... before their best WR returns to health. If this can turn into what I think it will, recent Warrick Dunn #s(w/ Vick) would be his minimum output in another year or two.
 
We only have one year of data to go on regarding what type of RB Lendale White is, but what we know is this:

1) He has already tried the patience of the Titans to the degree that they have expended a 2nd & 1st round pick on RB's since they drafted him in 2006.

2) Despite the fact that White is a big back, he did not 'get stronger' as he accumulated carries. The defense wore him down as much if not more than he wore it down. In his first 15 carries of games, he logged a 3.73 YPC. After that, it dipped down to 3.48. Truth be told, it's not much of a decline, but he provided no 'big back' advantage.

3) His 3rd down production was atrocious; 25 carries 60 yards 4 receptions 14 yards.

What this says to me is that:

White got all the work he did last year in large part because he stunk the least out of all the options the Titans had at RB. White's numbers only look passable because of the amount of carries he received. But he simply wasn't very good. If you get past the fact that the Titans drafted Chris Henry last year (who looks like he is on his way to bustville after being overdrafted), Johnson was actually somewhat touted and can fill a distinct role in the Titans running game immediately.

For one, White won't see the field on 3rd downs. It's a simple as that. Secondly, unless he dramatically improved his conditioning, I suspect the Titans will look to pare down his carries to the 15/game range. And even so, it wasn't as if he was setting the world on fire up until that point.

Honestly, I think Johnson represents a very solid sleeper opportunity because quite frankly, the RB talent in TEN is not that good. The reason why alot of people are high on Jonathan Stewart this year is because of the fact that he seems to have a primary role in that offense from the word go. But Johnson also might have that chance.

I think Johnson starts off the season in the 5-6 carry/game range and catching the ball out of the backfield. But by mid-October will have a more prominent role in offense.

Prediction: 167 Carries, 765 Rushing Yards 5 TD's; 43 Receptions, 380 Receiving Yards 1 TD.

 

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