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Jeff Pasquino

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
OK, it's that time of year. Drafts are plentiful as is strategy, trade, sleeper and league format discussions. Basically if you can think about it for NFL or fantasy football, it can probably turn into a decent article.

I'm going to do something that I've never tried before and we'll see how this turns out. I'm inviting our hardcore members to suggest some articles. The ground rules:

1. Be excellent in your suggestions.

2. Don't expect to see your article - I can't guarantee it will come off.

3. Think about what you'd like to see, but also what would be a good idea for others to read as well - a wider appeal is always better

4. I reserve the right to throw up my hands, run away and scream at this thread - sort of like when Mike Martz sees a wishbone formation

Well, let's see how this goes.

 
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NFL teams often throw around the saying "It's better to part with someone 1 year too early as opposed to 1 year too late.

From a dynasty perspective, How about an article regarding the catch 22 some owners may face knowing they could be dealing a player who can help them get to a championship this year, but value of said player can plummet the following year.



A main guideline could be, even if you are competing in the current year, do you deal away assets that can help you win this year to maximize a return in value while you can?

Last year Alexander was a 1st RD pick, this year he can't get a job in the NFL.

I think drops in value like this, can destroy a dynasty team overnight.

Chances are 1 or more of these players will be drafted in the 1st 5 RDs this year, only to not be drafted until the teens in 09.

LT

Holt

TO

Westbrook

LJ

EDGE

Driver

Harrison

etc...

 
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How about something that the lesser experienced people could use to help them improve their teams when scanning the waiver wire.

By and large the best, fastest and most valuable way to help your team is through free agency/waiver wire transactions. Focus on how the veterans at this game prepare and reserch finding potental studs on the open market. What tools are used. being one step ahead of the competition. waiting until he has that breakout week is usually 2 weeks two late.

 
On second thought... Thats a bad idea. These aren't the droids your looking for. Move along.

 
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waj707 said:
What about FBG subscribers writing their own articles? Any opportunity or contest for that?
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Freelance articles are a part of the content every year and always welcome. Clayton Gray usually handles these submissions.This thread is more for those who want to talk about what they want to see me and/or the rest of the staff write. Think of it as "I'd like to see someone talk about this".
 
I'd like to see an article on methodologies/rationale for selecting keepers.

How you make tough decisions. How to weigh the value of a kept player (keeping a guy who's ADP is in the 5th round and only having to give up your 10th round pick vs. keeping a guy who's ADP is in the 1st round and having to give up your 3rd round pick, etc).

Something along those lines.

 
The area that could really use more coverage, IMO, is in auction leagues and/or contract leagues.

I'd like to see articles, maybe more than one, from staffers and/or members that delve into these more. Rather than just a list of suggested auction prices, which are fairly useless, I'd like to see someone write up an article detailing the ins and outs of leagues they have done, using these formats. Preferably giving their opinions and insights about the pros and cons of these kinds of leagues. A strategy article on contract leagues, and some discussion thereof, would be great (BTW, if this stuff already exists, my apologies, but I haven't spotted it.

Anthony Borbely did a great rundown of his dynasty IDP league, explaining his moves, and it was a fun read.

i know there's a lot of casual players that use FBG's, but I think there are a lot of owners looking for something more involved.

 
Good stuff already.

I know that FBGs caters to everyone from those just starting out to hardcore guys who have played for 10-20 years, so every article won't be for everyone.

Keep the ideas coming.

 
This would require a lot of data crunching, but I would like to see a review of players that have a huge ADP jump from year N to year N+1. We know their stats jumped up big-time and that is why their ADP increased so much. But were they value to the folks drafting them in year N+1?

thanks

 
I'd like to see an article on sleepers that stand a VERY good chance of making an impact. Guys that you don't think about that with just one oe to things happening can make a HUGE splash.

Examples -

Ryan Grant last year. He was pimped by a few of the team I think, maybe Cecil and Lammey? Maybe not... I know there were posters though that were hot for him.

Selvin Young last year was not thought of as anything by many till he got a achance then he was on the scene.

I'd love to see an article that pin pointed a few of the guys that always impress every year.

 
Some articles I am working on... to be released soon

RBs vs. WRs - tale of the tape
A look at the 2008 year-long Survivor game - (choose one team to win each week)
The value behind reception %
QBs and rushing yards - an in depth look at the hidden value
Best conditioned QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs
Can kickers be valuable? - long distance kickers to target
Coaches and the history of their RBs
Players who thrived in the second half
 
I would love to see an article/study that compares +/- variances(projected vs actual) of all the FBG expert projections(IDP included), prob in some specific time frame (3-5 yrs), to see who has the best "hit" rates at projecting. I think many conclusions can be made from this study..i.e who is most/least accurate overall, maybe some experts are more/less accurate projecting certain positions?

 
Jeff Pasquino said:
Freelance articles are a part of the content every year and always welcome. Clayton Gray usually handles these submissions.
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Do you know this year's deadline for the freelance articles? Last year's cutoff was 01Aug. I've already sent three articles to Clayton (not sure if there were received) but I have an idea for one more if there is additional time available. Thanks!
 
Maybe this already exists and just haven't found it yet. An article on the ranking differences in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues vs. a re-draft. The strategy to approach. Who jumps a few rounds vs. falls back.

 
Jeff Haseley said:
Some articles I am working on... to be released soon

RBs vs. WRs - tale of the tape
A look at the 2008 year-long Survivor game - (choose one team to win each week)
The value behind reception %
QBs and rushing yards - an in depth look at the hidden value
Best conditioned QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs
Can kickers be valuable? - long distance kickers to target
Coaches and the history of their RBs
Players who thrived in the second half
Click to expand...
I like this idea (bolded). I loved the articles on OL coaches and their impact on the running game. (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...coach_gibbs.php) How about an article on offensive coordinators and their impact on offensive positions. If you followed Norv Turner a few years ago, then you got Lamont Jordan and Frank Gore in back to back years when they had "break out" years. Cam Cameron helps LT break records, then leads Ronnie Brown on a run last year. How will he impact Willis McGahee? Those are just a few examples but I personally try to find my value picks in guys who had a bad coordinator in year X and a new improved coordinator in year X+1. A simple concept I know, but people often overlook guys after bad years.

A few examples for this year:

Frank Gore had a terrible coordinator last year...will Martz really help him. (I know that this example may be overused already)

Larry Johnson had a down year last year mainly due to Oline problems, but will Chan Gailey help him?

Vince Young gets an OC who helped a QB of the same mold a few years ago (McNair)

 
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Dudley Dawson said:
Jeff Haseley said:
Some articles I am working on... to be released soon

RBs vs. WRs - tale of the tape
A look at the 2008 year-long Survivor game - (choose one team to win each week)
The value behind reception %
QBs and rushing yards - an in depth look at the hidden value
Best conditioned QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs
Can kickers be valuable? - long distance kickers to target
Coaches and the history of their RBs
Players who thrived in the second half
Click to expand...
I like this idea (bolded). I loved the articles on OL coaches and their impact on the running game. (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...coach_gibbs.php) How about an article on offensive coordinators and their impact on offensive positions. If you followed Norv Turner a few years ago, then you got Lamont Jordan and Frank Gore in back to back years when they had "break out" years. Cam Cameron helps LT break records, then leads Ronnie Brown on a run last year. How will he impact Willis McGahee? Those are just a few examples but I personally try to find my value picks in guys who had a bad coordinator in year X and a new improved coordinator in year X+1. A simple concept I know, but people often overlook guys after bad years.

A few examples for this year:

Frank Gore had a terrible coordinator last year...will Martz really help him. (I know that this example may be overused already)

Larry Johnson had a down year last year mainly due to Oline problems, but will Chan Gailey help him?

Vince Young gets an OC who helped a QB of the same mold a few years ago (McNair)
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I think Jeff T. has done some of these already. He's got Martz in the works I think.Keep the ideas coming. Many won't get done, like I said, but some will.

 
This is easy...Just re-write all past articles with 'Start 2QB' leagues in mind. There are more and more leagues changing to this format, and it should be paid more attention to.

Actually, just 1 article on the benifits of 2QB leagues, showing how it equals out the value between RBs and QBs.

my $0.02.

 
Incogneto said:
This is easy...Just re-write all past articles with 'Start 2QB' leagues in mind. There are more and more leagues changing to this format, and it should be paid more attention to.Actually, just 1 article on the benifits of 2QB leagues, showing how it equals out the value between RBs and QBs.my $0.02.
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Do you mean all of my articles?Any favorites?I'm working through them now and have a few new ones in mind.
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
Incogneto said:
This is easy...Just re-write all past articles with 'Start 2QB' leagues in mind. There are more and more leagues changing to this format, and it should be paid more attention to.Actually, just 1 article on the benifits of 2QB leagues, showing how it equals out the value between RBs and QBs.my $0.02.
Click to expand...
Do you mean all of my articles?Any favorites?I'm working through them now and have a few new ones in mind.
Click to expand...
More than anything I am just venting about the lack of focus paid to 2QB leagues. Personally, I believe it is gathering in popularity...I think with a little focus paid upon it by the FF Media, people would start to understand that 2QB leagues make player rankings much more equally distributed, and is a lot more challenging to play. ON the flip side, I am sick of FF being JUST about RBs. The 1QB leagues have ruined player rankings.
 
More in depth focus on players drafted in rounds 5-9 and beyond. Don't need to read a spotlight on Adrian Peterson or Terrell Owens, need to know why I should take Michael Turner over Thomas Jones and Matt Forte.

 
How about an article on contract leagues. I know that is more niche than some other suggestions but not much on the site about it, so I think it would be interesting and something different.

 
I love the Dodds 'Perfect Draft' articles- always the first thing I read when I get the mag. But I think it would be interesting to see other FBGuys version of a Perfect Draft, too.

I also like the slot-strategy stuff; slot-strategy+perfect draft would be a match made in heaven.

 
Jeff Haseley said:
Some articles I am working on... to be released soon

RBs vs. WRs - tale of the tape
A look at the 2008 year-long Survivor game - (choose one team to win each week)
The value behind reception %
QBs and rushing yards - an in depth look at the hidden value
Best conditioned QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs
Can kickers be valuable? - long distance kickers to target
Coaches and the history of their RBs
Players who thrived in the second half
Click to expand...
I don't like these suggestions :lmao: just kiddin' wheels

 
Incogneto said:
Jeff Pasquino said:
Incogneto said:
This is easy...Just re-write all past articles with 'Start 2QB' leagues in mind. There are more and more leagues changing to this format, and it should be paid more attention to.Actually, just 1 article on the benifits of 2QB leagues, showing how it equals out the value between RBs and QBs.my $0.02.
Click to expand...
Do you mean all of my articles?Any favorites?I'm working through them now and have a few new ones in mind.
Click to expand...
More than anything I am just venting about the lack of focus paid to 2QB leagues. Personally, I believe it is gathering in popularity...I think with a little focus paid upon it by the FF Media, people would start to understand that 2QB leagues make player rankings much more equally distributed, and is a lot more challenging to play. ON the flip side, I am sick of FF being JUST about RBs. The 1QB leagues have ruined player rankings.
Click to expand...
Along these lines, I'd suggest looking at TD only leagues and CDM type leagues where the RB or WR average yards per catch/carry is actually counted as part of the scoring. Customizing the apps gets the trick done but an article with some thought(vs what a program spits out) might be a suggestion.For example, to a TD only league guy Brandon Jacobs was actually worse last year while the rest of the FF world thinks he did fairly good as a starter. Eh just a suggestion
 
One of the staffs greybeards could do an article on FF history on the web, how it's developped, "then and now" type stuff etc

 
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benm3218 said:
I'd like to see an article on sleepers that stand a VERY good chance of making an impact. Guys that you don't think about that with just one oe to things happening can make a HUGE splash. Examples - Ryan Grant last year. He was pimped by a few of the team I think, maybe Cecil and Lammey? Maybe not... I know there were posters though that were hot for him.Selvin Young last year was not thought of as anything by many till he got a achance then he was on the scene.I'd love to see an article that pin pointed a few of the guys that always impress every year.
Click to expand...
Kind of a spin of to this, I'd like to see an article on Draftmaster leagues (Best Ball) that require large drafting large rosters and are looking to find the diamonds in the ruff so to speak.
 
benm3218 said:
He was pimped by a few of the team I think, maybe Cecil and Lammey? Maybe not...
Click to expand...
Those two drive me nuts. One guy writes an article and the other writes an exact duplicate. Matter of fact, I have this suspicion Pasquino and Jeff do the same thing. I wish Lammey would just come up with something original and quit copying Cecil's work.
 
I liked Colin's recent Upside of Danger article. I'd like to see the opinions of some of the other staff about which players have the most upside. Maybe as part of a fantasy roundtable article.

 
We have a QBBC article, a great DTBC article... how about articles on guys to start for great matchups vs weak defenses (or teams that give up lots of points) at other positions.. Kickers, RBs, TEs?

 
It seems that "regression to the mean" is becoming so overused around here that its almost a throwaway term. Especially when its a young player that had a huge jump in production say, in his 3rd year. There's really not enough data points to have a reliable mean but people still use that term. And who's to say that its not the proverbial light coming on? So I'd like an article showing some parameters of when a regression can truly be expected, in terms of # of years playing time, production increase levels, or other factors that seem relevant.

I think I just confused myself typing this, so if its not clear I can try to elaborate.

 
benbadman said:
We have a QBBC article, a great DTBC article... how about articles on guys to start for great matchups vs weak defenses (or teams that give up lots of points) at other positions.. Kickers, RBs, TEs?
Click to expand...
Have you been reading ahead?I'm working on this.RB2BC, WR3BC are in the works already.
 
1. Preseason vs. Regular Season--do preseason stats mean anything?

2. Dynasty WRs--NFL rookie draft position vs. reality.

3. Choosing a backup RB--statistical analysis of what situations lead to a Larry Johnson-type situation.

4. Sophomore Jinx in RBs. What makes a player turn into a Kevin Jones or Julius Jones or Kevan Barlow?

 
An analysis of injury occurence in "healthy" backs vs "injury-prone" backs. What I mean by this is that there are players who are less valued, particularly at RB, because of their past injuries. I'm curious about the incidence of games lost by backs with this designation ahead of the season compared to RBs as a whole. I personally think RB is just by its nature a short-term position and that the "injury-prone" logic is a little bit overrated.

-QG

 
Seconding, thirding, whatever the suggestions for other opinions on the Perfect Draft article. Maybe a Perfect Draft round table. That would be awesome.

I'd also like to see them come out a bit earlier than in previous years. I understand there's a lot going on close to the start of the season, but the demand for these articles always seems very high.

 
Verbal Kint said:
It seems that "regression to the mean" is becoming so overused around here that its almost a throwaway term. Especially when its a young player that had a huge jump in production say, in his 3rd year. There's really not enough data points to have a reliable mean but people still use that term. And who's to say that its not the proverbial light coming on? So I'd like an article showing some parameters of when a regression can truly be expected, in terms of # of years playing time, production increase levels, or other factors that seem relevant. I think I just confused myself typing this, so if its not clear I can try to elaborate.
Click to expand...
now that is interesting :lmao:
 
butcher boy said:
Seconding, thirding, whatever the suggestions for other opinions on the Perfect Draft article. Maybe a Perfect Draft round table. That would be awesome.I'd also like to see them come out a bit earlier than in previous years. I understand there's a lot going on close to the start of the season, but the demand for these articles always seems very high.
Click to expand...
It is in the magazine. Can't get much earlier than that.
 
benbadman said:
We have a QBBC article, a great DTBC article... how about articles on guys to start for great matchups vs weak defenses (or teams that give up lots of points) at other positions.. Kickers, RBs, TEs?
Click to expand...
Along these lines I'd like to see an article on the top QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs and who make good late round "complimentary" targets for cheap bye week fill-ins... example: if you draft Brian Westbrook, here's a guy you can take late to play on Westbrook's bye week so that you can load up on depth at another position first.
 
Verbal Kint said:
It seems that "regression to the mean" is becoming so overused around here that its almost a throwaway term. Especially when its a young player that had a huge jump in production say, in his 3rd year. There's really not enough data points to have a reliable mean but people still use that term. And who's to say that its not the proverbial light coming on? So I'd like an article showing some parameters of when a regression can truly be expected, in terms of # of years playing time, production increase levels, or other factors that seem relevant. I think I just confused myself typing this, so if its not clear I can try to elaborate.
Click to expand...
I am sure this would be helpful to some, but that smells like an article that Doug Drinen or Chase Stuart might write, and I can feel my head starting to hurt already.
 
massraider said:
Verbal Kint said:
It seems that "regression to the mean" is becoming so overused around here that its almost a throwaway term. Especially when its a young player that had a huge jump in production say, in his 3rd year. There's really not enough data points to have a reliable mean but people still use that term. And who's to say that its not the proverbial light coming on? So I'd like an article showing some parameters of when a regression can truly be expected, in terms of # of years playing time, production increase levels, or other factors that seem relevant. I think I just confused myself typing this, so if its not clear I can try to elaborate.
Click to expand...
I am sure this would be helpful to some, but that smells like an article that Doug Drinen or Chase Stuart might write, and I can feel my head starting to hurt already.
Click to expand...
Well, get their ### in here then.
 
Didn't see this thread when I posted the topic located at http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=409728. Snippet from the main post below. Few member comments in the main thread.

I'm curious if there's any information in the FBG subscriber content that compares each staffers' last set of pre-season player rankings (baseline) against actual end of season rank (actuals) for 2007, 2006, and so on. We conduct this type of exercise in my company quite often - i.e. compare our budget estimates, baseline project schedule, etc. against the actuals at the end of the project, fiscal year, etc. From there we report on why there were variances (e.g. why a task took 2x as long as it should have), identify overall trends/weaknesses, and as a result continuously improve on our initial estimates.

I can see this being somewhat helpful to FBG staff (maybe they do this already) to improve each year and to subscribers. For example, lets say historically Maurile Tremblay is always very accurate with QB projections and Jason Wood is always very accurate with RB projections. Using different variations of the "Expert Rankings" FBG subscriber tool, a user could compile what they think are the most accurate set of overall player rankings.

Does anything like this exist?
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IDP Big Play article on how to pick and use Defensive ends.

Auction leagues, how to rank players in popular software (ESPN, FA, ...) to make the draft go smoother when the money runs out.

You know, just general stuff.

 
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