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*** Number 8 Draft Pick Strategy *** (1 Viewer)

L

Leeroy Jenkins

Footballguy
Let's discuss who is available at the Number 8 pick and what strategy overall is best from this spot. Specify whether you are looking at a 10 or 12 team league and whether it is a 1 or 2 QB league.

Post any relevant mock draft results and post your actual draft as you have them so we all get a feel for the availabilty of players to formulate a strategy around.

:tinfoilhat:

 
I have the same spot in a 10 team. Start 1QB,2RB,2WR,1RB/WR/TE. My decision is between Gore and Moss. Brady hasn't been available in any of the mocks i've done. I don't think i've ever gone anything but RB with a 1st round pick, but i'm entertaining the idea of taking Moss. If Gore is off the board, I may chicken out and pass Moss and end up taking MBIII.

In most mocks when I take Moss i'm able to land LJ or Portis in the 2nd and usually just take BPA in the 3rd and 4th which end up being 2 out of Jlew, Jacobs, Brown and Bush.

When I take Gore I'm landing Wayne or TO in the 2nd and doing the same thing in the 3rd and 4th. Although when I take Moss first, I am pretty set on taking 3rb's in my next 4 picks.

I've tried going RB/RB, but if I don't land Gore, I don't like it as much. This year I really want to have a top WR, I don't particularly like the WR's i'm seeing in the 3rd and 4th in the 8 spot.

 
From the 8 spot I think I would go with Moss if he's there, and it's not because Moss is that amazing (although he is), it's because of the great late value available at RB. In a 12 teamer, you can get Moss, LJ in the 2nd , the last of the Housh/Holt/Burress group in the 3rd, Bush/Brown/McFadden/Graham/Parker in the 4th, and Jonathan Stewart/Julius Jones/Edge in the 5th. I think something like this is the way to go. You could easly go RB1 in the 1st and then Wayne or Fitz or AJ in the 2nd, but I prefer Moss/LJ to Gore/Fitz. But in general, I think the value is clear to go WR, RB, RB from rounds 3-5 and end up with Buress, McFadden, Stewart rather than RB, RB, WR and end up with Brown, McFadden, Dwayne Bowe.

 
bigmiiiiike said:
From the 8 spot I think I would go with Moss if he's there, and it's not because Moss is that amazing (although he is), it's because of the great late value available at RB. In a 12 teamer, you can get Moss, LJ in the 2nd , the last of the Housh/Holt/Burress group in the 3rd, Bush/Brown/McFadden/Graham/Parker in the 4th, and Jonathan Stewart/Julius Jones/Edge in the 5th. I think something like this is the way to go. You could easly go RB1 in the 1st and then Wayne or Fitz or AJ in the 2nd, but I prefer Moss/LJ to Gore/Fitz. But in general, I think the value is clear to go WR, RB, RB from rounds 3-5 and end up with Buress, McFadden, Stewart rather than RB, RB, WR and end up with Brown, McFadden, Dwayne Bowe.
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Makes sense.
 
I'm picking #8 in a 14-teamer, so a bit different than most. Mocks I'm doing I got Brady in one and picked Gore in the other. About 6 rounds into each, and team with Brady is looking much better.

I'm going to try to see what a team looks like with Moss as well. I'm thinking I'd rather have one of Moss or Brady vs. the RBs that are available at that spot.

The way I see it is I want to make sure I get out of the first round with a stud anchor, and I don't feel I'm getting that with someone like Portis.

 
will add more later as I have done several mocks from this spot as I have it in one league this year......I am partial to Barber in the first at this spot and another RB in the second....have had Holt make it back to me in 3rd....

 
1 QB 12 teamer

I have done a bunch of drafts in this spot....I am changing my stance on taking two RB's....I think you definately take one in the first because I do not think you want to be "forced" to take one in the second.....I think you lose some value being forced to take a RB in the second, whereas if you take the best back available in the first I think you can still get a top WR in the second....if you do not take a RB in the first you have to in the second and by then it may be kind of a crapshoot between that guy and 6-7 guys around him......heck if you don't take a RB in the first, a thought might be to not take one in the second either and then just swing for the fences in the 3-4 and 5-6 on some guys (T. Jones, Young/Torain, K. Smith)....lots of options here and I kind of like it....who knows, Manning might even fall to the second in most/some drafts....probably none of mine, but I'm sure in some.....

I am targeting Barber and then Edwards....

eta: after further thought, I do not see Manning falling to 2.5, not sure what I was smoking

 
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I'm sitting in the 8th spot for a startup dynasty draft in two weeks. I've done a few mocks from this spot and think I am leaning towards a RB-WR-WR-RB/WR approach. I'll take either Lynch/Gore or MB3 in the first and then Fitz/Edwards in the second and go from there. Then I'll look to add Rb's from the K. Smith, T. Jones, etc... group to be my #2 and #3 backs.

 
perfect thread i just got the number 8 pick, i really would love to start out with a moss/ ryan grant combo, I really feel grant has a shot at top 5 rb. However i dont think moss makes it to 8 in my league so I'm taking mbIII or Gore. In the second I like Edwards or Fitz i guess. I'm really considering taking Manning and Romo as I think they may be the "best picks" for that spot. My reason being is that in fantasy, u need to have a "competitive advantage" over the other team at positions. By getting a "non elite rb" in the first, at least 5 other teams theoretically have an advantage over your RB1. Now lets just say u u take edwards in the second round, the teams that have ap, lt, and Westy will still get andre johnson, colston, etc with there second round picks. Now they have a RB1 who is better than yours and a WR1 who is pretty much the same as yours; by taking an elite QB ( manning or Romo) in the second, at least you will have the advantage over other teams when you play them. Then you grab Plaxico/Holt in the third. So you team could be Gore, Manning, Holt. This might be the best way to go. Not saying im def doing this but wanted to see what others thought?

 
Doing a 12-team TD-heavy mock from the 8 slot on Antsports right now. Here's what I have so far.

POS Player Name Team Pick Bye

QB Drew Brees NOS 3.08 9

RB Marion III Barber DAL 1.08 10

RB Rudi Johnson CIN 4.05 8

WR Reggie Wayne IND 2.05 4

WR Wes Welker NEP 5.08 4

TE Kellen Winslow CLE 6.05 5

For the Rudi haters, Lendale White and all the rookie RBs were still available. I'd be thrilled with a Barber/Wayne/Brees start to my real drafts.

 
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jaylasoul14 said:
perfect thread i just got the number 8 pick, i really would love to start out with a moss/ ryan grant combo, I really feel grant has a shot at top 5 rb. However i dont think moss makes it to 8 in my league so I'm taking mbIII or Gore. In the second I like Edwards or Fitz i guess. I'm really considering taking Manning and Romo as I think they may be the "best picks" for that spot. My reason being is that in fantasy, u need to have a "competitive advantage" over the other team at positions. By getting a "non elite rb" in the first, at least 5 other teams theoretically have an advantage over your RB1. Now lets just say u u take edwards in the second round, the teams that have ap, lt, and Westy will still get andre johnson, colston, etc with there second round picks. Now they have a RB1 who is better than yours and a WR1 who is pretty much the same as yours; by taking an elite QB ( manning or Romo) in the second, at least you will have the advantage over other teams when you play them. Then you grab Plaxico/Holt in the third. So you team could be Gore, Manning, Holt. This might be the best way to go. Not saying im def doing this but wanted to see what others thought?
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I like this. But, not sure I could make myself do it. Here's what I do every year to map out my draft stategy. 1. I take the past 3 years draft results and determine what QB, RB, WR, TE is available at my current draft spot for that year. You would be shocked to see how consistent each year's draft goes. In other words, at 2.06, for the past 3 years, I am looking at QB 3, RB 16, WR 4, or TE1 (14 team league) on average. 2. I take that data and apply it to the ADP for the current year. So, I know that most likely in the 2nd Rd I will be looking at my choice of QB (Romo, Brees), RB (MJD, J. Lewis, Jacobs), WR (TO, Wayne, Fitz), or TE (Gates, Winslow, Witten).3. Then, using my projections for the current year, I can estimate what the best choice will be in each round considering who will most likely be there.4. Using this data, the draft which gives me the most points is RB, WR, WR, QB, RB, TE, WR...1st LJ2nd Fitz3rd Colston4th McNabb5th Stewart6th Cooley7th GallowayThe wild card here is Stewart. I have projected at 1006 yd rushing and 8 tds, and 180 rec 0td. If he doesn't meet those expectations than this obviously looks like a bad choice (waiting until the 5th rd to take a RB).But, guys like Torrain, Felix Jones, Mendenhall, C Taylor, and K. Smith can be picked up and hopefully one of them fills in the hole there if Stewart bombs.I will get back to you on taking a QB in the 2nd round and how it looks using this data...I am at work and don't have the figures in front of me...just going off memory.
 
Deuce said:
jaylasoul14 said:
perfect thread i just got the number 8 pick, i really would love to start out with a moss/ ryan grant combo, I really feel grant has a shot at top 5 rb. However i dont think moss makes it to 8 in my league so I'm taking mbIII or Gore. In the second I like Edwards or Fitz i guess. I'm really considering taking Manning and Romo as I think they may be the "best picks" for that spot. My reason being is that in fantasy, u need to have a "competitive advantage" over the other team at positions. By getting a "non elite rb" in the first, at least 5 other teams theoretically have an advantage over your RB1. Now lets just say u u take edwards in the second round, the teams that have ap, lt, and Westy will still get andre johnson, colston, etc with there second round picks. Now they have a RB1 who is better than yours and a WR1 who is pretty much the same as yours; by taking an elite QB ( manning or Romo) in the second, at least you will have the advantage over other teams when you play them. Then you grab Plaxico/Holt in the third. So you team could be Gore, Manning, Holt. This might be the best way to go. Not saying im def doing this but wanted to see what others thought?
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I like this. But, not sure I could make myself do it. Here's what I do every year to map out my draft stategy. 1. I take the past 3 years draft results and determine what QB, RB, WR, TE is available at my current draft spot for that year. You would be shocked to see how consistent each year's draft goes. In other words, at 2.06, for the past 3 years, I am looking at QB 3, RB 16, WR 4, or TE1 (14 team league) on average. 2. I take that data and apply it to the ADP for the current year. So, I know that most likely in the 2nd Rd I will be looking at my choice of QB (Romo, Brees), RB (MJD, J. Lewis, Jacobs), WR (TO, Wayne, Fitz), or TE (Gates, Winslow, Witten).3. Then, using my projections for the current year, I can estimate what the best choice will be in each round considering who will most likely be there.4. Using this data, the draft which gives me the most points is RB, WR, WR, QB, RB, TE, WR...1st LJ2nd Fitz3rd Colston4th McNabb5th Stewart6th Cooley7th GallowayThe wild card here is Stewart. I have projected at 1006 yd rushing and 8 tds, and 180 rec 0td. If he doesn't meet those expectations than this obviously looks like a bad choice (waiting until the 5th rd to take a RB).But, guys like Torrain, Felix Jones, Mendenhall, C Taylor, and K. Smith can be picked up and hopefully one of them fills in the hole there if Stewart bombs.I will get back to you on taking a QB in the 2nd round and how it looks using this data...I am at work and don't have the figures in front of me...just going off memory.
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Just to add, Galloway is almost ALWAYS there in the 8th round, so I could very easily take another RB like Felix Jones or Mendenhall in the 7th to ensure I get one of those guys if I were worried about it.
 
Excellent job deuces wild, looking forward to more analysis from you. The dream scenario i feel is getting brees in the 3rd, but i dont think its happens in my drafts. i feel the 8th spot just misses him. gore, edwards, brees would be the best we can hope for at 8th pick. The i look at the draft slot though, im really starting to think the the best team has either Romo or Manning, such as, LJ, Romo, Holt or MBII, Manning, Plaxico. At least then your Qb will out score everyone's else's QB and your RB1 and WR1 can compete with theirs. TRUST ME, I hate taking a QB early! But it might be the way to go.

 
jaylasoul14 said:
Excellent job deuces wild, looking forward to more analysis from you. The dream scenario i feel is getting brees in the 3rd, but i dont think its happens in my drafts. i feel the 8th spot just misses him. gore, edwards, brees would be the best we can hope for at 8th pick. The i look at the draft slot though, im really starting to think the the best team has either Romo or Manning, such as, LJ, Romo, Holt or MBII, Manning, Plaxico. At least then your Qb will out score everyone's else's QB and your RB1 and WR1 can compete with theirs. TRUST ME, I hate taking a QB early! But it might be the way to go.
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From this slot, QB in the 3rd may be the best value if Brees or Romo is still there. I was helped by someone taking Palmer, for some reason, before I took Brees.
 
jaylasoul14 said:
Excellent job deuces wild, looking forward to more analysis from you. The dream scenario i feel is getting brees in the 3rd, but i dont think its happens in my drafts. i feel the 8th spot just misses him. gore, edwards, brees would be the best we can hope for at 8th pick. The i look at the draft slot though, im really starting to think the the best team has either Romo or Manning, such as, LJ, Romo, Holt or MBII, Manning, Plaxico. At least then your Qb will out score everyone's else's QB and your RB1 and WR1 can compete with theirs. TRUST ME, I hate taking a QB early! But it might be the way to go.
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You have to realize though, it's how your 2nd rd QB compares to his 3rd rd QB. So you have to gauge what the dropoff is at that position each round. That's why I map out what has happened in the past so I don't fabricate too much what might happen in my favor, and it gives me a good idea of what the dropoff will be each round at the position. The draft dominator does this for you, but I like to do it myself (just something I like about fantasy football). So, going with QB in the 2nd rd, you miss on Fitz, who is comparable to Colston who you could get in the 3rd, but then you are still one WR short down the line. Thus, it's you might have an advantage at QB, but was it worth what you inevitably lose at WR?
 
Deuce said:
I like this. But, not sure I could make myself do it. Here's what I do every year to map out my draft stategy. 1. I take the past 3 years draft results and determine what QB, RB, WR, TE is available at my current draft spot for that year. You would be shocked to see how consistent each year's draft goes. In other words, at 2.06, for the past 3 years, I am looking at QB 3, RB 16, WR 4, or TE1 (14 team league) on average. 2. I take that data and apply it to the ADP for the current year. So, I know that most likely in the 2nd Rd I will be looking at my choice of QB (Romo, Brees), RB (MJD, J. Lewis, Jacobs), WR (TO, Wayne, Fitz), or TE (Gates, Winslow, Witten).3. Then, using my projections for the current year, I can estimate what the best choice will be in each round considering who will most likely be there.4. Using this data, the draft which gives me the most points is RB, WR, WR, QB, RB, TE, WR...
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I do something similar to what deuces wild is talking about here. I recently had the #8 in one of the survivor leagues and here is what my analysis produced. For the first 10 rounds I assumed that each team would take 1QB, 4RB, 4WR, 1TE to determine what would be available at each pick. Using projections and the scoring system, I could project the point totals for all 6200 scenarios. The top options all suggested taking RB07 and RB12 in the first 2 rounds. Taking WR05 in the second round was 10 points lower. Fortunately for me I was able to get WR03 which improved that scenario by 15 points.Well, in the end, the first 4 rounds ended up with Barber, Fitzgerald, Graham, Bowe. I had targeted the third round as the determining pick for the rest of the draft. I had anticipated that any of the following might be there at 3.8; Romo/Brees, Grant/Graham/Lewis, Colston/Boldin/Edwards, Witten. In this draft, they were all gone except for Graham/Lewis, so the decision was easy.
 
I agree, no shot Romo or Brees makes it to the 8th draft slot in the 3rd round. You will have to pull the trigger in the second round. Im pretty pissed, because I know ur WR corps will suffer and I'm in a start 3 WR, .5 ppr. And for the last month Ive been planning to have 2 of the top 12 or so WR, but I picked the 8th spot out of a hat yesterday so it is what it is. Im also considering taking Grant in the second, as most people know he was the second best rb the second half of last year and its looking like greenbay should be an elite team whether its rodgers or favre. That stuff about 8 in the box is non-sense, Packers WR combo of Driver and Jennings in one of the best in the NFL. I never thought about going RB/RB in the first 2 rounds but MBIII/Grant combo can do damage. Each can easily get 15 TD's and Grant gets an extra 4 million if he rushes for 1500 yards. ( Everyone remembers how hard Lawrence Taylor played in that movie with steaming willie beamin to get that million dollar bonus )

 
In the draft where I have the 8th pick (6 pts all TD) I could very easily see both Brady and Manning being gone by my pick at 8 in the first definately in the 2nd. If both are off the board in the first that means Moss is probably still there and one to two RB who I probably thought would be gone will also be there. If Brady and Manning go before me, I can almost assume that Brees/Romo will be taken after my first round pick and before my second. One/two of the 9-12 will pull the trigger knowing that neither will make it back to them. So I think my dilema is do I take a semi stud RB that will make it back to me in round 2 and have a great RB core or do I take a stud WR and have a start that looks very similiar to other teams picking ahead.

I think the year that Manning had two years ago and Brady's year last year combined with the change in attitude away from the old RB/RB mentality has made it to where we will see more QB and WR go in the first two rounds then any previous years. So as much as I hate to say it, the value still may be at RB and RB/RB will provide the most value.

With the Smith and Marshall suspensions, maybe Smith falls to third round and Marshall to 4th, so maybe you could go

RB

RB

Smith

Marshall

follow up later with guys like A. Gonzalez, Harrison, Crayton, etc later and just try to get through the first two-3 weeks.....

throwing in a Roth, McNaab, or Palmer in there somewhere as well....

I dunno just ramblin........

 
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In 14 team mocks I'm doing, if Brady fell to 8 I liked how my team looks. Barring that, I think RB-WR-WR-RB is the way to go.

So a team like

FGore

BEdwards

WWelker

WParker

For me, there isn't that much RB value in the 2nd or 3rd, but it's there in the 4th. I'd say you could even go RB-QB/WR-QB/WR if you'd like.

Point being, the RB value picks up again in the 4th, and gives you some freedom to draft value in 2/3.

 
It all depends on league format, what are min/max positional starters and flex options.

With all that said, I'd go 8 Randy Moss. I have seen just way too many drafts where WR's are flying off the board, so you might as well get the jump and get the best one of them all.

I'd go Randy Moss 8 and then wait to see what's up next round. I wouldn't rule out going WR next round either if value is there. I'd love to get a Fitzgerald in round 2 if I could, if so I'd go Larry. If not, then I would like it if I got Maurice Drew Jones, again PPR helps.

Depending on what I picked up in round 2, maybe I'd be looking at a Tory Holt in round 3. RB's get a little weird, maybe a Brandon Jacobs or McFadden is creaping up the charts if you're on that bandwagon.

4th round, I like Calvin Johnson or S. Holmes. If you go RB Graham is a nice option or Rudi Johnson.

 
I'm trying to start with Moss in round 1 in a 10 team that gives +1 to WRs and TEs. Here is what I've got so far on an Antsports mock.

RB Larry Johnson KCC 2.03

RB Jamal Lewis CLE 3.08

RB Brandon Jacobs NYG 4.03

RB Earnest Graham TBB 5.08

WR Randy Moss NEP 1.08

WR Santonio Holmes PIT 6.03

I doubt I would go WR-RB-RB-RB-RB, but it is my first mock and these guys are QB crazy. I doubt Graham and Holmes would fall this far in my actual league. Rivers and E. Manning are still on the board, so if I could pocket them both the next time around, I could live with this start. There are quite a few good WR's left too.

 
**** Vermeil said:
I'm trying to start with Moss in round 1 in a 10 team that gives +1 to WRs and TEs. Here is what I've got so far on an Antsports mock. RB Larry Johnson KCC 2.03 RB Jamal Lewis CLE 3.08 RB Brandon Jacobs NYG 4.03 RB Earnest Graham TBB 5.08 WR Randy Moss NEP 1.08 WR Santonio Holmes PIT 6.03 I doubt I would go WR-RB-RB-RB-RB, but it is my first mock and these guys are QB crazy. I doubt Graham and Holmes would fall this far in my actual league. Rivers and E. Manning are still on the board, so if I could pocket them both the next time around, I could live with this start. There are quite a few good WR's left too.
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Who went 1-7?
 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
**** Vermeil said:
I'm trying to start with Moss in round 1 in a 10 team that gives +1 to WRs and TEs. Here is what I've got so far on an Antsports mock. RB Larry Johnson KCC 2.03 RB Jamal Lewis CLE 3.08 RB Brandon Jacobs NYG 4.03 RB Earnest Graham TBB 5.08 WR Randy Moss NEP 1.08 WR Santonio Holmes PIT 6.03 I doubt I would go WR-RB-RB-RB-RB, but it is my first mock and these guys are QB crazy. I doubt Graham and Holmes would fall this far in my actual league. Rivers and E. Manning are still on the board, so if I could pocket them both the next time around, I could live with this start. There are quite a few good WR's left too.
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Who went 1-7?
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1.01 Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SDC 1.02 Jackson, Steven RB STL 1.03 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN 1.04 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 1.05 Addai, Joseph RB IND 1.06 Brady, Tom QB NEP 1.07 Gore, Frank RB SFO1.08 Moss, Randy WR NEP 1.09 Barber, Marion III RB DAL 1.10 Owens, Terrell
 
jaylasoul14 said:
perfect thread i just got the number 8 pick, i really would love to start out with a moss/ ryan grant combo, I really feel grant has a shot at top 5 rb. However i dont think moss makes it to 8 in my league so I'm taking mbIII or Gore. In the second I like Edwards or Fitz i guess. I'm really considering taking Manning and Romo as I think they may be the "best picks" for that spot. My reason being is that in fantasy, u need to have a "competitive advantage" over the other team at positions. By getting a "non elite rb" in the first, at least 5 other teams theoretically have an advantage over your RB1. Now lets just say u u take edwards in the second round, the teams that have ap, lt, and Westy will still get andre johnson, colston, etc with there second round picks. Now they have a RB1 who is better than yours and a WR1 who is pretty much the same as yours; by taking an elite QB ( manning or Romo) in the second, at least you will have the advantage over other teams when you play them. Then you grab Plaxico/Holt in the third. So you team could be Gore, Manning, Holt. This might be the best way to go. Not saying im def doing this but wanted to see what others thought?
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I've been struggling with this exact same thaught for weeks. I think I am taking Manning/Romo if TO/Wayne are gone. Please someone convince me I am right. Ok, convince me I am wrong.
 
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tonydead said:
jaylasoul14 said:
perfect thread i just got the number 8 pick, i really would love to start out with a moss/ ryan grant combo, I really feel grant has a shot at top 5 rb. However i dont think moss makes it to 8 in my league so I'm taking mbIII or Gore. In the second I like Edwards or Fitz i guess. I'm really considering taking Manning and Romo as I think they may be the "best picks" for that spot. My reason being is that in fantasy, u need to have a "competitive advantage" over the other team at positions. By getting a "non elite rb" in the first, at least 5 other teams theoretically have an advantage over your RB1. Now lets just say u u take edwards in the second round, the teams that have ap, lt, and Westy will still get andre johnson, colston, etc with there second round picks. Now they have a RB1 who is better than yours and a WR1 who is pretty much the same as yours; by taking an elite QB ( manning or Romo) in the second, at least you will have the advantage over other teams when you play them. Then you grab Plaxico/Holt in the third. So you team could be Gore, Manning, Holt. This might be the best way to go. Not saying im def doing this but wanted to see what others thought?
Click to expand...
I've been struggling with this exact same thaught for weeks. I think I am taking Manning/Romo if TO/Wayne are gone. Please someone convince me I am right. Ok, convince me I am wrong.
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if you take a QB in the second at th e8 spot, you will be playing catch up at RB2, WR1, and WR2.....Holt may make it back to you....maybe....if you go QB in second, you HAVE to get it right on your 2nd tier picks that you think will outperform draft spot....
 
its a tough call that wont be made until draft day. As for me, i'll be watching ryan grant, fitz, edwards, romo very closely this pre-season. I also have an idea, take an elite qb in the second, best available wr the 3rd, marvin harrison in the 4th round, and hope he comes back, then u would have an elite team. Then i would take shots at my rb2 throughout the rest of the draft.

example- Gore, manning, housh, harrison, then 2 rb's in 5th and 6th

Rb 2's will be available throughout the draft

 
Stinkin Ref said:
tonydead said:
jaylasoul14 said:
perfect thread i just got the number 8 pick, i really would love to start out with a moss/ ryan grant combo, I really feel grant has a shot at top 5 rb. However i dont think moss makes it to 8 in my league so I'm taking mbIII or Gore. In the second I like Edwards or Fitz i guess. I'm really considering taking Manning and Romo as I think they may be the "best picks" for that spot. My reason being is that in fantasy, u need to have a "competitive advantage" over the other team at positions. By getting a "non elite rb" in the first, at least 5 other teams theoretically have an advantage over your RB1. Now lets just say u u take edwards in the second round, the teams that have ap, lt, and Westy will still get andre johnson, colston, etc with there second round picks. Now they have a RB1 who is better than yours and a WR1 who is pretty much the same as yours; by taking an elite QB ( manning or Romo) in the second, at least you will have the advantage over other teams when you play them. Then you grab Plaxico/Holt in the third. So you team could be Gore, Manning, Holt. This might be the best way to go. Not saying im def doing this but wanted to see what others thought?
Click to expand...
I've been struggling with this exact same thaught for weeks. I think I am taking Manning/Romo if TO/Wayne are gone. Please someone convince me I am right. Ok, convince me I am wrong.
Click to expand...
if you take a QB in the second at th e8 spot, you will be playing catch up at RB2, WR1, and WR2.....Holt may make it back to you....maybe....if you go QB in second, you HAVE to get it right on your 2nd tier picks that you think will outperform draft spot....
Click to expand...
Thanks. Yeah, I know. But, I was thinking the same thing last year when I passed on Brady and took Bush. This year's Romo is last year's Brady, IMO.
 
im really starting to think qb in the second is a must. if you dont, you wont have elite talent at any position. ( u wont have LT, WESTY, etc, and u wont have moss,owens wayne.)

what happens if you pull the trigger on a wr in the second and the next 5 wr's after him have better seasons. say u take b. edwards; and colston, fitz, andre johnson, chad johnson, all have better seasons than edwards. now your starting off your team with a middle of the pack rb1 and a middle of the pack wr1. Yes, of course u can still have a great draft and win, but ur putting urself at a disadvantage to start the draft. Problem is, its hard to say who will emerge as the best wr from the second tier ( after moss, owens, wayne ) u will be picking from a group of 5 or 6 guys and be the first one to make the choice.

 
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.

 
jaylasoul14 said:
im really starting to think qb in the second is a must. if you dont, you wont have elite talent at any position. ( u wont have LT, WESTY, etc, and u wont have moss,owens wayne.)what happens if you pull the trigger on a wr in the second and the next 5 wr's after him have better seasons. say u take b. edwards; and colston, fitz, andre johnson, chad johnson, all have better seasons than edwards. now your starting off your team with a middle of the pack rb1 and a middle of the pack wr1. Yes, of course u can still have a great draft and win, but ur putting urself at a disadvantage to start the draft. Problem is, its hard to say who will emerge as the best wr from the second tier ( after moss, owens, wayne ) u will be picking from a group of 5 or 6 guys and be the first one to make the choice.
Click to expand...
I think so. Then you get Holt/Colston/Burress in the third and then I am targeting Wes Welker in the fourth. If Wes falls to the fourth I think you are solid at WR and there are plenty of RB2s left without having to worry about QB at all.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
imagroid said:
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. It seems there is a big dropoff after the elite group of WR's, but you can get a decent bunch of RB's in rounds 3-7. I got 7th and 8th pick in a few drafts and i guarantee you 2 of my first 3 picks will be WR's. I want to have 2 elite WR's. And I'll get a few QB's in rounds 8-10.
 
Lupe said:
imagroid said:
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. It seems there is a big dropoff after the elite group of WR's, but you can get a decent bunch of RB's in rounds 3-7. I got 7th and 8th pick in a few drafts and i guarantee you 2 of my first 3 picks will be WR's. I want to have 2 elite WR's. And I'll get a few QB's in rounds 8-10.
Click to expand...
Super, please elaborate. In my scinerio I am getting:Romo/Manning Pick#2Holt/Coulston/Burress Pick #3Wes Welker Pick #4Asuming Moss is gone for your Pick #1 who are your 2 elite WR's and what QB do you couple them with in rounds 8-10 to make them better than the WR-QB combo I listed. TIA
 
jaylasoul14 said:
im really starting to think qb in the second is a must. if you dont, you wont have elite talent at any position. ( u wont have LT, WESTY, etc, and u wont have moss,owens wayne.)what happens if you pull the trigger on a wr in the second and the next 5 wr's after him have better seasons. say u take b. edwards; and colston, fitz, andre johnson, chad johnson, all have better seasons than edwards. now your starting off your team with a middle of the pack rb1 and a middle of the pack wr1. Yes, of course u can still have a great draft and win, but ur putting urself at a disadvantage to start the draft. Problem is, its hard to say who will emerge as the best wr from the second tier ( after moss, owens, wayne ) u will be picking from a group of 5 or 6 guys and be the first one to make the choice.
Click to expand...
The problem is you aren't thinking in tiers. If you pass on Edwards, who can at least keep up with the other WRs you mention, you'll be left with a guy like Welker or R. White trying to keep up with Colston or Fitz...no thanks.
 
And you need 3 WRs, and only 1 QB...so there seems to always be value later at that position. WRs will go fast this year and you may be left with a void in 2 of your 3 WR slots if you don't keep up. Whereas with QB you might lose a little but probably not as much as you will at WR.

It's all relative

 
tonydead said:
Lupe said:
imagroid said:
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. It seems there is a big dropoff after the elite group of WR's, but you can get a decent bunch of RB's in rounds 3-7. I got 7th and 8th pick in a few drafts and i guarantee you 2 of my first 3 picks will be WR's. I want to have 2 elite WR's. And I'll get a few QB's in rounds 8-10.
Click to expand...
Super, please elaborate. In my scinerio I am getting:Romo/Manning Pick#2Holt/Coulston/Burress Pick #3Wes Welker Pick #4Asuming Moss is gone for your Pick #1 who are your 2 elite WR's and what QB do you couple them with in rounds 8-10 to make them better than the WR-QB combo I listed. TIA
Click to expand...
It's usually Wayne or TO in the 2nd and either CJ or Burress in the 3rd (with his suspension, Smith too). I've never seen Colston slip to me in the 3rd and I pass Holt all day long. I'm getting Hass in the 7th and 8th almost every mock. If not I go with 2 of Garrard/Cutler/Bulger/Delhomme.
 
imagroid said:
tonydead said:
Lupe said:
imagroid said:
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. It seems there is a big dropoff after the elite group of WR's, but you can get a decent bunch of RB's in rounds 3-7. I got 7th and 8th pick in a few drafts and i guarantee you 2 of my first 3 picks will be WR's. I want to have 2 elite WR's. And I'll get a few QB's in rounds 8-10.
Click to expand...
Super, please elaborate. In my scinerio I am getting:Romo/Manning Pick#2Holt/Coulston/Burress Pick #3Wes Welker Pick #4Asuming Moss is gone for your Pick #1 who are your 2 elite WR's and what QB do you couple them with in rounds 8-10 to make them better than the WR-QB combo I listed. TIA
Click to expand...
It's usually Wayne or TO in the 2nd and either CJ or Burress in the 3rd (with his suspension, Smith too). I've never seen Colston slip to me in the 3rd and I pass Holt all day long. I'm getting Hass in the 7th and 8th almost every mock. If not I go with 2 of Garrard/Cutler/Bulger/Delhomme.
Click to expand...
OK, yeah I would also take Wayne/TO before Romo/Manning (see earlier post). I guess the drop-off for me is after Moss/Wayne/TO. But if they are gone I just dont see how:Garrard/Edwards/Burress >>> Romo/Burress/Jennings
 
Deuce said:
jaylasoul14 said:
im really starting to think qb in the second is a must. if you dont, you wont have elite talent at any position. ( u wont have LT, WESTY, etc, and u wont have moss,owens wayne.)what happens if you pull the trigger on a wr in the second and the next 5 wr's after him have better seasons. say u take b. edwards; and colston, fitz, andre johnson, chad johnson, all have better seasons than edwards. now your starting off your team with a middle of the pack rb1 and a middle of the pack wr1. Yes, of course u can still have a great draft and win, but ur putting urself at a disadvantage to start the draft. Problem is, its hard to say who will emerge as the best wr from the second tier ( after moss, owens, wayne ) u will be picking from a group of 5 or 6 guys and be the first one to make the choice.
Click to expand...
The problem is you aren't thinking in tiers. If you pass on Edwards, who can at least keep up with the other WRs you mention, you'll be left with a guy like Welker or R. White trying to keep up with Colston or Fitz...no thanks.
Click to expand...
See post #40. Thanks, put some different names in there for discussion purposes if you wish. TIA
 
imagroid said:
tonydead said:
Lupe said:
imagroid said:
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. It seems there is a big dropoff after the elite group of WR's, but you can get a decent bunch of RB's in rounds 3-7. I got 7th and 8th pick in a few drafts and i guarantee you 2 of my first 3 picks will be WR's. I want to have 2 elite WR's. And I'll get a few QB's in rounds 8-10.
Click to expand...
Super, please elaborate. In my scinerio I am getting:Romo/Manning Pick#2Holt/Coulston/Burress Pick #3Wes Welker Pick #4Asuming Moss is gone for your Pick #1 who are your 2 elite WR's and what QB do you couple them with in rounds 8-10 to make them better than the WR-QB combo I listed. TIA
Click to expand...
It's usually Wayne or TO in the 2nd and either CJ or Burress in the 3rd (with his suspension, Smith too). I've never seen Colston slip to me in the 3rd and I pass Holt all day long. I'm getting Hass in the 7th and 8th almost every mock. If not I go with 2 of Garrard/Cutler/Bulger/Delhomme.
Click to expand...
Sorry. I don't see how:Edwards/Burress/Hasselbeck > Romo/Burresss/Jennings
 
tonydead said:
imagroid said:
tonydead said:
Lupe said:
imagroid said:
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. It seems there is a big dropoff after the elite group of WR's, but you can get a decent bunch of RB's in rounds 3-7. I got 7th and 8th pick in a few drafts and i guarantee you 2 of my first 3 picks will be WR's. I want to have 2 elite WR's. And I'll get a few QB's in rounds 8-10.
Click to expand...
Super, please elaborate. In my scinerio I am getting:Romo/Manning Pick#2Holt/Coulston/Burress Pick #3Wes Welker Pick #4Asuming Moss is gone for your Pick #1 who are your 2 elite WR's and what QB do you couple them with in rounds 8-10 to make them better than the WR-QB combo I listed. TIA
Click to expand...
It's usually Wayne or TO in the 2nd and either CJ or Burress in the 3rd (with his suspension, Smith too). I've never seen Colston slip to me in the 3rd and I pass Holt all day long. I'm getting Hass in the 7th and 8th almost every mock. If not I go with 2 of Garrard/Cutler/Bulger/Delhomme.
Click to expand...
OK, yeah I would also take Wayne/TO before Romo/Manning (see earlier post). I guess the drop-off for me is after Moss/Wayne/TO. But if they are gone I just dont see how:Garrard/Edwards/Burress >>> Romo/Burress/Jennings
Click to expand...
Because Edwards will outscore Burress, and Burress will outscore Jennings almost every week....2 of 3 positions won vs 1 of 3 positions won.
 
tonydead said:
imagroid said:
tonydead said:
Lupe said:
imagroid said:
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. It seems there is a big dropoff after the elite group of WR's, but you can get a decent bunch of RB's in rounds 3-7. I got 7th and 8th pick in a few drafts and i guarantee you 2 of my first 3 picks will be WR's. I want to have 2 elite WR's. And I'll get a few QB's in rounds 8-10.
Click to expand...
Super, please elaborate. In my scinerio I am getting:Romo/Manning Pick#2Holt/Coulston/Burress Pick #3Wes Welker Pick #4Asuming Moss is gone for your Pick #1 who are your 2 elite WR's and what QB do you couple them with in rounds 8-10 to make them better than the WR-QB combo I listed. TIA
Click to expand...
It's usually Wayne or TO in the 2nd and either CJ or Burress in the 3rd (with his suspension, Smith too). I've never seen Colston slip to me in the 3rd and I pass Holt all day long. I'm getting Hass in the 7th and 8th almost every mock. If not I go with 2 of Garrard/Cutler/Bulger/Delhomme.
Click to expand...
OK, yeah I would also take Wayne/TO before Romo/Manning (see earlier post). I guess the drop-off for me is after Moss/Wayne/TO. But if they are gone I just dont see how:Garrard/Edwards/Burress >>> Romo/Burress/Jennings
Click to expand...
In a 10 teamer if TO and Wayne are both gone that means Lynch and or Portis is probably there and I just end up going RB/RB. I wouldn't take Edwards.
 
Deuce said:
tonydead said:
imagroid said:
tonydead said:
Lupe said:
imagroid said:
I can only speak about 10 team drafts, but I really prefer the RB's that are in the 4-7 rounds. Guys like Bush, Jacobs & Brown in the early 4th and guys like Edge, TJones, Graham, Turner, JStewart & Lendale in the 5-7th. If I can't get moss at 8, i'm taking Gore and usually going WR/WR in the 2nd & 3rd. I don't like taking Romo or Manning there in the 2nd, I would rather take Brees in the late 3rd, but i'm only seeing him there about 20% of the time.
Click to expand...
I agree completely. It seems there is a big dropoff after the elite group of WR's, but you can get a decent bunch of RB's in rounds 3-7. I got 7th and 8th pick in a few drafts and i guarantee you 2 of my first 3 picks will be WR's. I want to have 2 elite WR's. And I'll get a few QB's in rounds 8-10.
Click to expand...
Super, please elaborate. In my scinerio I am getting:Romo/Manning Pick#2Holt/Coulston/Burress Pick #3Wes Welker Pick #4Asuming Moss is gone for your Pick #1 who are your 2 elite WR's and what QB do you couple them with in rounds 8-10 to make them better than the WR-QB combo I listed. TIA
Click to expand...
It's usually Wayne or TO in the 2nd and either CJ or Burress in the 3rd (with his suspension, Smith too). I've never seen Colston slip to me in the 3rd and I pass Holt all day long. I'm getting Hass in the 7th and 8th almost every mock. If not I go with 2 of Garrard/Cutler/Bulger/Delhomme.
Click to expand...
OK, yeah I would also take Wayne/TO before Romo/Manning (see earlier post). I guess the drop-off for me is after Moss/Wayne/TO. But if they are gone I just dont see how:Garrard/Edwards/Burress >>> Romo/Burress/Jennings
Click to expand...
Because Edwards will outscore Burress, and Burress will outscore Jennings almost every week....2 of 3 positions won vs 1 of 3 positions won.
Click to expand...
Good point. My leagues go on total points, not by positions won. So, it's interesting to see on an weekly average if the difference in projections between Garrard and Romo compared to Edwards and Jennings. I haven't finished my projections totally, but for our one little example, you are correct. It's real close though, only 1.1 points better. I am going to have to take a real good look at this over the next couple of weeks. To keep it simple I am going to assume we get the same WR at pick #3. Whichever direction I decide to go, it should help me to know who to target. Thanks for the input.
 
I just did a mock taking Manning at 2.03. Squad looked like this

Manning, Garrard

Gore, Maroney, Stewy, Forte, Watson, C Johnson

CJ, Plax, Ward, Engram

I think I got a little lucky to get Maroney in the 5th.

If a couple things go your way, this strategy could be promising, but might be a little risky.

 
jaylasoul14 said:
its a tough call that wont be made until draft day. As for me, i'll be watching ryan grant, fitz, edwards, romo very closely this pre-season. I also have an idea, take an elite qb in the second, best available wr the 3rd, marvin harrison in the 4th round, and hope he comes back, then u would have an elite team. Then i would take shots at my rb2 throughout the rest of the draft.example- Gore, manning, housh, harrison, then 2 rb's in 5th and 6th Rb 2's will be available throughout the draft
Click to expand...
trying not to be nit picky, but Housh will not make it back to 3.8eta: and in a 12 teamer I doubt Manning makes it to 2.5
 
Last edited by a moderator:
imagroid said:
I just did a mock taking Manning at 2.03. Squad looked like thisManning, GarrardGore, Maroney, Stewy, Forte, Watson, C JohnsonCJ, Plax, Ward, EngramI think I got a little lucky to get Maroney in the 5th. If a couple things go your way, this strategy could be promising, but might be a little risky.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think strictly on paper based on most people's projections it's better to take Edwards like Deuces pointed out. But it is close enough where you can take into account some other things like Maroney falling to you. Or knowing the drafting tendancies of the other people in your league or targeting players you think are goint to out perform their projections and have a high upside....things could easily work out the other way too.
 
I think we all realize we are talking a huge difference whether it is 10 or 12 team league......I am willing to bet that in almost every 12 team draft Brady and Manning will not make it back to the 2.5 pick.....so in a 12 team league we are really looking at Brees or Romo being the pick, and I am just not sure that is the way to go....

also starting lineup is a huge factor....most of my leagues (flex) only require two WR to start and you can play 3 RB's....so that alos changes things.....we almost need threads within a thread because the differences between leagues makes a huge difference and some of us may be getting those crossed......

RB2's do not grow on trees as much as I think some think they do....

also not sure that by the time the season starts Welker makes it to the 4.5 pick.....especially PPR

 
Stinkin Ref said:
I think we all realize we are talking a huge difference whether it is 10 or 12 team league......I am willing to bet that in almost every 12 team draft Brady and Manning will not make it back to the 2.5 pick.....so in a 12 team league we are really looking at Brees or Romo being the pick, and I am just not sure that is the way to go....also starting lineup is a huge factor....most of my leagues (flex) only require two WR to start and you can play 3 RB's....so that alos changes things.....we almost need threads within a thread because the differences between leagues makes a huge difference and some of us may be getting those crossed......RB2's do not grow on trees as much as I think some think they do....also not sure that by the time the season starts Welker makes it to the 4.5 pick.....especially PPR
Click to expand...
True. FWIW, I am looking at 12 teams and am targeting Romo (if Manning falls that's just gravy).
 
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