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Drafting TEs: wait...then wait some more (1 Viewer)

BigRed

BigRed

Footballguy
The more I look at this, the more it seems to me there are a ton of TEs who have a very good shot to be in the 60-75/600-750/6-8 range. PS I like the idea of a top TE. But while any of several TEs could and might go above the this, flip a coin on who it is and how much they will do so. Is it really worth it to pay the price? Is someone like Gates/etc really that much more likely to significantly out-produce that mush of 2d tier TEs?

More and more I'm thinking no. I could easily make a case for any of the top 8-10 TEs (if not more) being in this range, give or take a little, and you could argue (esp in PPR) that the top 3 or 4 aren't worth their price.

I just don't see the no-brainer Gonzo or Gates picks of years past being worth paying sig. more than the rest. Not this year anyway.

 
BigRed said:
The more I look at this, the more it seems to me there are a ton of TEs who have a very good shot to be in the 60-75/600-750/6-8 range. PS I like the idea of a top TE. But while any of several TEs could and might go above the this, flip a coin on who it is and how much they will do so. Is it really worth it to pay the price? Is someone like Gates/etc really that much more likely to significantly out-produce that mush of 2d tier TEs? More and more I'm thinking no. I could easily make a case for any of the top 8-10 TEs (if not more) being in this range, give or take a little, and you could argue (esp in PPR) that the top 3 or 4 aren't worth their price. I just don't see the no-brainer Gonzo or Gates picks of years past being worth paying sig. more than the rest. Not this year anyway.
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Agree wholeheartedly. I've been in numerous mocks where guys like Scheffler and Owen Daniels were still around in the 11th-12th round, and both of them could be top 8-10 guys this year. I also like Todd Heap, if he can stay healthy, and he's going around the 9th round or so.I did a couple of mocks with the intention of taking Witten early to see how my team looked, and it meant that I really had to scramble for my third RB, which I normally take in the fifth-sixth round. My starters were all right, but my depth really suffered. Good post. I'm a big believer in waiting for TE, especially this season.
 
Manster said:
been getting shockey around the 10th rnd, and crumpler past the 10th in mocks i've been doing.
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The only thing I would say is - ALL TEs seem to be going later this year as people realise there is so much depth to the position. For instance, Gates just lasted until well into the 5th round of a dynasty draft I've just been in. There will come a point where the stud TEs are left alone so much they become value.
 
While they'll probably remain value plays,I wouldn't be surprised to see Scheffler/Daniels (aka the official TE sleepers of the SP ) creep up as pre-season games start, more drafts are held, more discussion takes place, etc.

 
Seems to be the trend in the NFL the last couple of years is to use the TE much more in passing. It used to just be Gates. Gonzo and sometimes Heap. Now guys are coming out of the woodwork (KWII, Witten, D. Clark, Cooley, Shockey). Two guys I really like this year: Owen Daniels and Anthony Fasano. Fasano should be there LATE....Parcells gets hired by the Phins. He signs a guy from the Dallas coaching staff to be the coach. They promptly trade for Fasano. Why do you suppose they did that?

Also, I like Donald Lee a lot too.

 
TheFanatic said:
Owen Daniels and Anthony Fasano. Fasano should be there LATE....Parcells gets hired by the Phins. He signs a guy from the Dallas coaching staff to be the coach. They promptly trade for Fasano. Why do you suppose they did that?.
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I have Fasano on my watch list for the reasons you mention; would still like to see him named the starter over Martin, though.
 
Lord Lucan said:
Manster said:
been getting shockey around the 10th rnd, and crumpler past the 10th in mocks i've been doing.
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The only thing I would say is - ALL TEs seem to be going later this year as people realise there is so much depth to the position. For instance, Gates just lasted until well into the 5th round of a dynasty draft I've just been in. There will come a point where the stud TEs are left alone so much they become value.
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True. We do auction draft so value has a diff meaning, but where top TEs last year were going for 12-13%, now I wouldn't be surprised if 10% was max, if that.Then again our league always has its share of "what the....." bids so I could be wrong........
 
TheFanatic said:
Seems to be the trend in the NFL the last couple of years is to use the TE much more in passing. It used to just be Gates. Gonzo and sometimes Heap. Now guys are coming out of the woodwork (KWII, Witten, D. Clark, Cooley, Shockey). Two guys I really like this year: Owen Daniels and Anthony Fasano. Fasano should be there LATE....Parcells gets hired by the Phins. He signs a guy from the Dallas coaching staff to be the coach. They promptly trade for Fasano. Why do you suppose they did that?Also, I like Donald Lee a lot too.
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Yeah there is a ton of breakout potential this year.....Daniels, Scheffler, Olsen etc....I wouldn't go as far as Fasano (who's going to throw to him?) but the point is still good.
 
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.

 
Mystery Achiever said:
TheDemon said:
The Man with the Plan said:
If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again.
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Agreed. This theory was floated around quite extensively last summer, as well. I bought into that theory for one of my leagues and crashed...hard.
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People who drafted Witten late were not disappointed.
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Not a good example. In the 3 seasons prior to last Jason Witten averaged 72 receptions, 830 yards and 4 touchdowns. He's definitely a proven player. Unlike most guys getting drafted late every season by people who expect some guy to become an elite tight end.
 
TheFanatic said:
Seems to be the trend in the NFL the last couple of years is to use the TE much more in passing. It used to just be Gates. Gonzo and sometimes Heap. Now guys are coming out of the woodwork (KWII, Witten, D. Clark, Cooley, Shockey). Two guys I really like this year: Owen Daniels and Anthony Fasano. Fasano should be there LATE....Parcells gets hired by the Phins. He signs a guy from the Dallas coaching staff to be the coach. They promptly trade for Fasano. Why do you suppose they did that?

Also, I like Donald Lee a lot too.
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because he kinda looks like Bavaro?Fasano

Bavaro

 
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Mystery Achiever said:
TheDemon said:
The Man with the Plan said:
If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again.
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Agreed. This theory was floated around quite extensively last summer, as well. I bought into that theory for one of my leagues and crashed...hard.
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People who drafted Witten late were not disappointed.
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That's cherry-picking. People who drafted anyone except Witten (who wasn't drafted that late) or Clark late were very disappointed. I think it's fair to guess that some TE who is taken late this year will do well, but it will not be possible to predict who it will be. Look at round 13+: Kevin Boss, Randy McMichael, Donald Lee, LJ Smith, Dustin Keller, Zach Miller, Ben Troupe. Sure, one or two of those guys will probably wind up in the top 5, but the other 5 or 6 will pretty much suck all year.
 
Not sure I follow, The Man. Are you distinguishing potential breakout vs. comeback players? And I know you don't frequently get the #1 TE in the 8th round, but isn't the reason we hang out here to maximize our chances? :)

And even if you just get a player who outplays his position - i.e. Daniels who was TE 7 -you can offset the ppg vs. a Gates with getting a higher round RB or WR.

Just like there are growth investors and value investors, there are people who always want a Gates/Gonzalez and those whou wouldn't dream of taking a TE early. Plenty of ways to win the game. :confused:

 
Mystery Achiever said:
Not sure I follow, The Man. Are you distinguishing potential breakout vs. comeback players? And I know you don't frequently get the #1 TE in the 8th round, but isn't the reason we hang out here to maximize our chances? :)

And even if you just get a player who outplays his position - i.e. Daniels who was TE 7 -you can offset the ppg vs. a Gates with getting a higher round RB or WR.

Just like there are growth investors and value investors, there are people who always want a Gates/Gonzalez and those whou wouldn't dream of taking a TE early. Plenty of ways to win the game. :rolleyes:
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Of course. There's a difference between " I don't want to draft Antonio Gates so I'll draft Jason Witten instead" and "I don't want to draft Antonio Gates so I'll draft Vernon Davis instead". One's proven and one's not.This season I think there's a difference between I don't want to draft Jason Witten so I'll draft Jeremy Shockey instead (which I disagree with) and " I don't want to draft Jason Witten so I'll draft random unproven TE instead" (which I strongly disagree with).

At almost no other position would people rely on a sleeper to get them points yet many continue to do so when it comes to the tight end. I don't understand it personally. There are many ways to win but it's a lot easier when you can dominate at a certain position. I don't think giving up that type of advantage is worth it just to accumulate mediocre talent at rb or wr. If you do that however you're better off trying to get a proven player than yet another touted sleeper who stays asleep.

 
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The Man with the Plan said:
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.
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:rolleyes: I went to my main league's site to get stats to refute this statement and was surprised. The difference between TE1 and TE6 (non PPR) was 4 points a game.That's a decent edge and may be worth the earlier pick to land Witten, Gates or Winslow.
 
The Man with the Plan said:
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.
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Don't forget about Winslow, Clark, and Cooley Those along with Witten, Gates, and Gonzo are your top 6 from last year. Those 6 scored well above 100 in a standard (non PPR) league. Witten - 149

Gates - 145

Gonzo - 139

Winslow - 135

Clark - 121

Cooley - 121.

After that it drops down to Miller at 93, Daniels at 88, and Lee at 87 (all three seem poised on the cusp of taking that next step).

In 2006 you see only 1 guy over the 121 mark that 6 guys were higher or equal to in 2007:

Gates - 139

Crumper - 118

Bonzo - 115

Heap - 105

Cooley - 104

Winslow - 99

Shockey - 97

Back in 2003 only two TE's broke 100. Gonzo at 144 and Sharpe at 119.

Similar production in 2005:

Gates - 164

Shockey - 125

Heap - 119

CRumpler - 113

Cooley - 112

Witten - 105

Gonzo - 97

In 2004, Gates and Gonzo have MONSTER years but the production is pretty low after that in respect to other years:

Gates - 169

Gonzo - 161

Witten - 128

Crumpler - 106

McMichael - 97

Shockey - 97

In 2003, only two guys had over 100:

Gonzo - 144

Sharpe - 119

Heap came in 3rd at 88.

I think it is pretty clear that we are seeing more scoring at the TE position, but only a couple of the guys are up there in the range of being equivalent to an extra WR on the team. That and 10pts/game on average is few and far between. Be happy with 120 on a season or 7.5 a game and don't spend the early pick on a guy that can possibly get that 10 points per game because the odds are against him doing it and the difference between that 2.5 points and the other player you draft in that spot aren't that great...

 
fantasyplayer said:
The Man with the Plan said:
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.
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:shrug: I went to my main league's site to get stats to refute this statement and was surprised. The difference between TE1 and TE6 (non PPR) was 4 points a game.That's a decent edge and may be worth the earlier pick to land Witten, Gates or Winslow.
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You must have a different scoring system than I have. Because the difference last year between Witten (149) and Clark/Cooley (tied at 121) was 28 points or 1.75 points per game. I'll give you the 1.75 at TE and make up for it by drafting another WR the same round you draft the Gates/Witten/Gonzo....
 
The Man with the Plan said:
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.
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I was reading this thread and laughing how people think until I got to here and finally came to realize someone has a brain. There are 14-15 qb's within 2 points of Peyton last year. Maybe even more this year will be within 2 or 3 APG pts a game meaning them guys that take qb's fast are not getting much an advantage over the rest of the league that wait until much later. There are exceptions some years like Brady last year, Manning a few years ago when they had record breaking seasons. TE'S are a different story. The top 4 had a 3 pt APG advantage over Cooley the 6th ranked te last year alone. 5 pt advantage over the rest of the so called TE 1'S on PPR standard scoreing leagues. If you want to get a true Easy advantage on your 3/4 of your league mates you better go for a top TE. Sure things change from year to year, Gates has a bad toe, some one from the middle of the pack could step up but over the last 4 years the top TE'S is where you gain a bigger advantage over your league mates easier then any other position. Last year there was Gates, Winslow, Whitten and Gonzales, then a big drop off to Dallas Clark and Cooley, then another big big drop off to everyone else. TE's win me championships, not qb's!
 
Buckeyedawgs said:
The Man with the Plan said:
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.
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I was reading this thread and laughing how people think until I got to here and finally came to realize someone has a brain. There are 14-15 qb's within 2 points of Peyton last year. Maybe even more this year will be within 2 or 3 APG pts a game meaning them guys that take qb's fast are not getting much an advantage over the rest of the league that wait until much later. There are exceptions some years like Brady last year, Manning a few years ago when they had record breaking seasons.

TE'S are a different story. The top 4 had a 3 pt APG advantage over Cooley the 6th ranked te last year alone. 5 pt advantage over the rest of the so called TE 1'S on PPR standard scoreing leagues.

If you want to get a true Easy advantage on your 3/4 of your league mates you better go for a top TE.

Sure things change from year to year, Gates has a bad toe, some one from the middle of the pack could step up but over the last 4 years the top TE'S is where you gain a bigger advantage over your league mates easier then any other position.

Last year there was Gates, Winslow, Whitten and Gonzales, then a big drop off to Dallas Clark and Cooley, then another big big drop off to everyone else.

TE's win me championships, not qb's!
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I agree with this. In redraft I always take a QB late. 6 round or later. But I don't agree that there is a 3 pt advantage by the top 4 over 5 and 6. As stated above the difference was only 1.75. So get a top 6 guy but don't drop down to the next tier....
 
TheFanatic said:
fantasyplayer said:
The Man with the Plan said:
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.
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:goodposting: I went to my main league's site to get stats to refute this statement and was surprised. The difference between TE1 and TE6 (non PPR) was 4 points a game.That's a decent edge and may be worth the earlier pick to land Witten, Gates or Winslow.
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You must have a different scoring system than I have. Because the difference last year between Witten (149) and Clark/Cooley (tied at 121) was 28 points or 1.75 points per game. I'll give you the 1.75 at TE and make up for it by drafting another WR the same round you draft the Gates/Witten/Gonzo....
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You're right, I was looking at TE7, not TE6.
 
many of the guys I play with still subscibe to the "you have to start one" theory so they look at it as a very important pick and thus start a TE run before I am ready to jump aboard.....

some drafts I have pulled the trigger early, some I just haven't been able to justify.....might have something to do with draft spot too.....but really it is the same answer as anything else.....VALUE....

 
Manster said:
been getting shockey around the 10th rnd
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Just wait two weeks - first catch he makes from Drew Brees in the preseason will see Shockey leap past Cooley's ADP.He should still be pretty good value, but I hope you are drafting now and not in a few weeks.
 
Buckeyedawgs said:
I was reading this thread and laughing how people think until I got to here and finally came to realize someone has a brain.
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Well we can't all be geniuses like you "dawg" :goodposting:
There are 14-15 qb's within 2 points of Peyton last year. TE'S are a different story. The top 4 had a 3 pt APG advantage over Cooley the 6th ranked te last year alone.
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...and we all know how last year = this year. You missed my point entirely. This year there is (IMO) likely even more of a "glut" of solid producing TEs, while even the top TEs are dicey to repeat their numbers (basically). ie the gap - and # of TEs closing that gap - is narrowing. Witten 96/1100+? Yeah right. Gonzo 99/1000+? Hold your breath (PS note how he hasn't gotten more than 5 TDs 3 years running too, on par or worse than numerous 2d tier guys). Gates dinged up and oh btw hasn't cracked 80 recepts 2 yrs running........Winslow, can his QB repeat his performance....etc etc etc.
TE's win me championships, not qb's!
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Yeah that's what I thought when I opted for Gates last year and got Cutler as my QB (who was about 80 pts away from Manning, FYI). Also you conveniently ignore the importance of that 2d or maybe 3d WR/RB who can make all the diff to a team.
 
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TheFanatic said:
Buckeyedawgs said:
The Man with the Plan said:
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.
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I was reading this thread and laughing how people think until I got to here and finally came to realize someone has a brain. There are 14-15 qb's within 2 points of Peyton last year. Maybe even more this year will be within 2 or 3 APG pts a game meaning them guys that take qb's fast are not getting much an advantage over the rest of the league that wait until much later. There are exceptions some years like Brady last year, Manning a few years ago when they had record breaking seasons.

TE'S are a different story. The top 4 had a 3 pt APG advantage over Cooley the 6th ranked te last year alone. 5 pt advantage over the rest of the so called TE 1'S on PPR standard scoreing leagues.

If you want to get a true Easy advantage on your 3/4 of your league mates you better go for a top TE.

Sure things change from year to year, Gates has a bad toe, some one from the middle of the pack could step up but over the last 4 years the top TE'S is where you gain a bigger advantage over your league mates easier then any other position.

Last year there was Gates, Winslow, Whitten and Gonzales, then a big drop off to Dallas Clark and Cooley, then another big big drop off to everyone else.

TE's win me championships, not qb's!
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I agree with this. In redraft I always take a QB late. 6 round or later. But I don't agree that there is a 3 pt advantage by the top 4 over 5 and 6. As stated above the difference was only 1.75. So get a top 6 guy but don't drop down to the next tier....
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it depends on the scoring. i'm in a TD heavy non-ppr redraft league where it's not worth burning a high draft pick for a TE, imo.
 
no, no, no, and no......Not to be a troll (:

The years i have been sucessful, i have had a top TE, whether it be Gonzalez or Gates.

A top tight end will get you 5 or 6 extra points on average per week. When it comes down to the actual games.....thats a huge difference. Sure you might take a hit at WR2...but i don't think its that big of a hit. I prefer to take a risk or two elsewhere and nail down a top TE.

PS...if healthy Gates would be a STEAL in round 4....I like Gonzalez in 5 or 6.....He is NOT done!

 
ajopiela said:
no, no, no, and no......Not to be a troll (:The years i have been sucessful, i have had a top TE, whether it be Gonzalez or Gates. A top tight end will get you 5 or 6 extra points on average per week. When it comes down to the actual games.....thats a huge difference. Sure you might take a hit at WR2...but i don't think its that big of a hit. I prefer to take a risk or two elsewhere and nail down a top TE. PS...if healthy Gates would be a STEAL in round 4....I like Gonzalez in 5 or 6.....He is NOT done!
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again, depends on scoring. gonzo doesnt score TD's. i'd rather wait and get a guy like crumpler then reach for Witten, Gates, or Winslow.
 
I'll add Dustin Keller to the sleepers list. :moneybag:

 
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Outside of Witten, I agree with your strategy. I've seen him fall to late 4th/early 5th in PPR dynasties. Young + talent + great situation = Steal that late.

 
There are too many different sides being argued above and you guys are not really addressing each others points.

Some are saying to grab a top TE because they are that much better than the unproven sleeper TEs, some are saying grab a top TE because they are better then the tier 2 and 3 TEs, some are saying to draw the line at the top 6. On the other side, some are saying to grab a sleeper like Scheffler or Olsen, some are saying to grab a tier 2 guy in the 8th or 9th like Daniels, Shockey, or Crumpler. These are very, very different arguments, and I'm trying to sort out my own thinking on this issue, and it's not that helpful when posters are off point.

As I see it, there are a few general spots in the draft when you can target your TE:

- Option 1 - late 4th early 5th for a Witten, Gates, Winslow, Gonzo type

- Option 2 - late 5th or 6th, maybe early 7th for a Cooley or Clark, maybe Heap (maybe he falls towards Option 3)

- Option 3 - 8th-10th for Daniels, , Vernon Davis, Crumpler, maybe Shockey (he's a tweener like Heap)

- Option 4 - 11th-end for Fasano, Scheffler, Olsen, LJ Smith, Kevin Boss

If you take a Tier 1 guy, you are going to be missing out on an RB like McFadden, Stewart, Graham, or James, and a WR like Calvin Johnson, Jennings, Holmes, Harrison, or Bowe.

If you take a Tier 2 guy, you're missing out on an RB like Julius Jones, Fred Taylor, or Mendenhall, and WRs like Coles, Galloway, and Hines Ward.

So, the question is, what option gives you the most points? Of course this is hard to speculate on, because if you got Witten late last year you're probably thinking you can get a "Witten" again this year in the 8th+. You really are going to have to stick to your projections, and hope that your projections are solid. If you are sold on Scheffler having 800 and 8, then be prepared to be disappointed, or at least acknowledge the risk you're taking on.

For me, I still think that there is so much value on the board in the 4th and 5th that it'll be tough to sell me on a tier 1 guy instead of grabbing McFadden, Stewart, or Harrison. I think there is a pretty significant talent drop off however in most drafts that I've seen in RBs and WRs at around the end of the 5th round. A McFadden/Stewart/Harrison can win you your league, I wouldn't say the same thing for a Julius Jones/Coles type. So I'll most likely be looking to lock up my TE spot with a Cooley/Clark/Heap/Shockey/Daniels, somewhere between rounds 6 and 9. These are the proven, above average TEs, and I'm likely only costing myself 1.5-3 PPG compared to the team that grabs a tier 1 guy, but for me, this season, that difference is more than made up with my McFadden/Stewart/Harrison over the Jones/Mendenhall/Coles.

*Note - I am in a 12 team non-PPR redraft

 
TheFanatic said:
Seems to be the trend in the NFL the last couple of years is to use the TE much more in passing. It used to just be Gates. Gonzo and sometimes Heap. Now guys are coming out of the woodwork (KWII, Witten, D. Clark, Cooley, Shockey). Two guys I really like this year: Owen Daniels and Anthony Fasano. Fasano should be there LATE....Parcells gets hired by the Phins. He signs a guy from the Dallas coaching staff to be the coach. They promptly trade for Fasano. Why do you suppose they did that?

Also, I like Donald Lee a lot too.
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um, I'm gonna take a stab at this one and say, BECAUSE Fasano is a great BLOCKING TE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?you DO realize that Dan Henning is coaching this offense, right? the guy loves two TE sets and a power running game..

From 2002-2007 when he coached Carolina's offense , here are some of the TE stats from the Panthers:

2002 - 35 rec

2003 - 30 rec

2004 - 51 rec, 480, 5td ( 3 TE's)

2005 - 35 rec, 357, 4td ( 3 TEs)

2006 - 36 rec, 316, 1td ( 2 TE's)

2007 - 46,406, 2td ( 1TE)

in other words, :football:

I doubt they use Fasano like Dallas uses Witten..with such a shaky O-line, they're more likely to keep Fasano in the help out with the blocking duties...

 
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Tanner9919 said:
TheFanatic said:
Seems to be the trend in the NFL the last couple of years is to use the TE much more in passing. It used to just be Gates. Gonzo and sometimes Heap. Now guys are coming out of the woodwork (KWII, Witten, D. Clark, Cooley, Shockey). Two guys I really like this year: Owen Daniels and Anthony Fasano. Fasano should be there LATE....Parcells gets hired by the Phins. He signs a guy from the Dallas coaching staff to be the coach. They promptly trade for Fasano. Why do you suppose they did that?

Also, I like Donald Lee a lot too.
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um, I'm gonna take a stab at this one and say, BECAUSE Fasano is a great BLOCKING TE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?you DO realize that Dan Henning is coaching this offense, right? the guy loves two TE sets and a power running game..

From 2002-2007 when he coached Carolina's offense , here are some of the TE stats from the Panthers:

2002 - 35 rec

2003 - 30 rec

2004 - 51 rec, 480, 5td ( 3 TE's)

2005 - 35 rec, 357, 4td ( 3 TEs)

2006 - 36 rec, 316, 1td ( 2 TE's)

2007 - 46,406, 2td ( 1TE)

in other words, :lmao:

I doubt they use Fasano like Dallas uses Witten..with such a shaky O-line, they're more likely to keep Fasano in the help out with the blocking duties...
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Fasano has great hands as well. So what if he has a great blocking skills. So does Shockey...In Dallas he was used as a blocking TE because they had Witten on the other side. In College he was a finalist for the Mackay award for the top TE in college. He has the Notre Dame record for most receptions by a TE in a single season (45 receptions). The fact that he has blocking skills as well only strengthens his stats as he will likely be in on most plays.Dan Henning may have gone with a power running game in Carolina but Tuna is going to instill some of his philosophy in this team and show me a Tuna team that did not have a great pass catching TE? The HC came from a team that had a great pass catching TE and promptly traded for his backup.

Oh, and you know that Henning was fired in Jan of 2007 right? So the 2007 stats are meaningless here. Also, name the TE's on the Panthers during his tenure. There is a Chicken and the Egg thing going on here. If he has nobody worth a crap at TE to pass to, do you think he's going to force feed plays to the QB to throw to the TE's?

 
I have to admit, I've never been a big fan of the TE position. I always thought that you had either target Gonzo or Gates and if you didn't get them, everyone else pretty much puddled up in around the same area. Some weeks Donald Lee would score 12 points, the next he would score 3. The same could go for Chris Cooley with perhaps a slightly higer ceiling.

But the big scoring TE's have 2 new members (Witten & Winslow). You can find warts on just about anyone and anything so you could argue that Winslow could be unpredictable based on his QB's one year track record or that Witten simply can't produce like he did last year.

But someone posted something a few months back that stuck with me and I think it makes sense. In essense his point was "I want a weapon at that position". But overall, we can say that 600-700 yards & 4-5 TD's from your TE is acceptable and I've been accepting that for awhile. But once 'weeks of football' start happening and we move away from overall seasonal projections, 600-700 yards means 40 yard games on average with a 25-30% chance of a TD. Whoopee...

But if you secure a weapon like Gates/Gonzo/Winslow/Witten, it's not just about production at that point. It's about threat and ceiling. Can you honestly say that if he played the game of his life, Donald Lee could go off for 120 yards & 2TD's? You can't. But the 4 guys I mentioned have that ceiling. They might produce those numbers once every 2 years or so, but there is that possibility and they can certainly ring the 100/1 bell 2-3 times/season at least. And in leagues with 100 yard bonuses...?

I heard someone say, they'd rather get their 3rd RB that go up and get that elite TE. The question I would ask is this?

How often does a TE simply come out of nowhere and become an impact player? Now ask how often that happens at RB?

I mean even if Vernon Davis all of a sudden becomes a 1000/7 guy, how surprising would that be? He was the #6 overall pick 2 years ago. This is where he should be...

But Ryan Grant, Willie Parker, Frank Gore...even Justin Fargas...these guys pop up every year pretty much out of nowhere. To me, I want to try and hit the home runs in the draft and where I swing and miss, be astute on the waiver wire. Servicable TE's show up on the waiver wire, not elite ones...

 
TheDirtyWord said:
I have to admit, I've never been a big fan of the TE position. I always thought that you had either target Gonzo or Gates and if you didn't get them, everyone else pretty much puddled up in around the same area. Some weeks Donald Lee would score 12 points, the next he would score 3. The same could go for Chris Cooley with perhaps a slightly higer ceiling.

But the big scoring TE's have 2 new members (Witten & Winslow). You can find warts on just about anyone and anything so you could argue that Winslow could be unpredictable based on his QB's one year track record or that Witten simply can't produce like he did last year.

But someone posted something a few months back that stuck with me and I think it makes sense. In essense his point was "I want a weapon at that position". But overall, we can say that 600-700 yards & 4-5 TD's from your TE is acceptable and I've been accepting that for awhile. But once 'weeks of football' start happening and we move away from overall seasonal projections, 600-700 yards means 40 yard games on average with a 25-30% chance of a TD. Whoopee...

But if you secure a weapon like Gates/Gonzo/Winslow/Witten, it's not just about production at that point. It's about threat and ceiling. Can you honestly say that if he played the game of his life, Donald Lee could go off for 120 yards & 2TD's? You can't. But the 4 guys I mentioned have that ceiling. They might produce those numbers once every 2 years or so, but there is that possibility and they can certainly ring the 100/1 bell 2-3 times/season at least. And in leagues with 100 yard bonuses...?

I heard someone say, they'd rather get their 3rd RB that go up and get that elite TE. The question I would ask is this?

How often does a TE simply come out of nowhere and become an impact player? Now ask how often that happens at RB?

I mean even if Vernon Davis all of a sudden becomes a 1000/7 guy, how surprising would that be? He was the #6 overall pick 2 years ago. This is where he should be...

But Ryan Grant, Willie Parker, Frank Gore...even Justin Fargas...these guys pop up every year pretty much out of nowhere. To me, I want to try and hit the home runs in the draft and where I swing and miss, be astute on the waiver wire. Servicable TE's show up on the waiver wire, not elite ones...
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very :thumbup: my strategy may and often does change from moment to moment in a draft, right now I am targeting Davis in most drafts in the later rounds....however if I have 3 solid RBs and 2-3 solid WR's I could see pulling the trigger on a top tier guy if one fell to 6th.......maybe the 5th if I was close to a turn.....

I always expect the TE run (top 4-5) to start early 4th....many times it is the guy in the 12th spot that pulls the trigger on the first one because he knows none will make it back to him in the 6th....and then the run starts through the 4th.....so to me that is when you make your decision.....if I don't pull the trigger in the 4th, I am waiting until the 8th round or later

 
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bigmiiiiike said:
There are too many different sides being argued above and you guys are not really addressing each others points.Some are saying to grab a top TE because they are that much better than the unproven sleeper TEs, some are saying grab a top TE because they are better then the tier 2 and 3 TEs, some are saying to draw the line at the top 6. On the other side, some are saying to grab a sleeper like Scheffler or Olsen, some are saying to grab a tier 2 guy in the 8th or 9th like Daniels, Shockey, or Crumpler. These are very, very different arguments, and I'm trying to sort out my own thinking on this issue, and it's not that helpful when posters are off point.As I see it, there are a few general spots in the draft when you can target your TE:- Option 1 - late 4th early 5th for a Witten, Gates, Winslow, Gonzo type- Option 2 - late 5th or 6th, maybe early 7th for a Cooley or Clark, maybe Heap (maybe he falls towards Option 3)- Option 3 - 8th-10th for Daniels, , Vernon Davis, Crumpler, maybe Shockey (he's a tweener like Heap)- Option 4 - 11th-end for Fasano, Scheffler, Olsen, LJ Smith, Kevin BossIf you take a Tier 1 guy, you are going to be missing out on an RB like McFadden, Stewart, Graham, or James, and a WR like Calvin Johnson, Jennings, Holmes, Harrison, or Bowe. If you take a Tier 2 guy, you're missing out on an RB like Julius Jones, Fred Taylor, or Mendenhall, and WRs like Coles, Galloway, and Hines Ward.So, the question is, what option gives you the most points? Of course this is hard to speculate on, because if you got Witten late last year you're probably thinking you can get a "Witten" again this year in the 8th+. You really are going to have to stick to your projections, and hope that your projections are solid. If you are sold on Scheffler having 800 and 8, then be prepared to be disappointed, or at least acknowledge the risk you're taking on. For me, I still think that there is so much value on the board in the 4th and 5th that it'll be tough to sell me on a tier 1 guy instead of grabbing McFadden, Stewart, or Harrison. I think there is a pretty significant talent drop off however in most drafts that I've seen in RBs and WRs at around the end of the 5th round. A McFadden/Stewart/Harrison can win you your league, I wouldn't say the same thing for a Julius Jones/Coles type. So I'll most likely be looking to lock up my TE spot with a Cooley/Clark/Heap/Shockey/Daniels, somewhere between rounds 6 and 9. These are the proven, above average TEs, and I'm likely only costing myself 1.5-3 PPG compared to the team that grabs a tier 1 guy, but for me, this season, that difference is more than made up with my McFadden/Stewart/Harrison over the Jones/Mendenhall/Coles. *Note - I am in a 12 team non-PPR redraft
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great post. More or less where I'm comin from.
 
BigRed said:
bigmiiiiike said:
There are too many different sides being argued above and you guys are not really addressing each others points.For me, I still think that there is so much value on the board in the 4th and 5th that it'll be tough to sell me on a tier 1 guy instead of grabbing McFadden, Stewart, or Harrison. I think there is a pretty significant talent drop off however in most drafts that I've seen in RBs and WRs at around the end of the 5th round. A McFadden/Stewart/Harrison can win you your league, I wouldn't say the same thing for a Julius Jones/Coles type. So I'll most likely be looking to lock up my TE spot with a Cooley/Clark/Heap/Shockey/Daniels, somewhere between rounds 6 and 9. These are the proven, above average TEs, and I'm likely only costing myself 1.5-3 PPG compared to the team that grabs a tier 1 guy, but for me, this season, that difference is more than made up with my McFadden/Stewart/Harrison over the Jones/Mendenhall/Coles. *Note - I am in a 12 team non-PPR redraft
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great post. More or less where I'm comin from.
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I could not agree more.Find their true value and try to trade in midseason. TE's only have real value on draft day. For years I was an ardent VBD and always believed it was better to get a top tier TE knowing he could be counted on to score. My TEs were always money but the rest of my team always had a hole somewhere -- whether it was depth or usually at WR. Then one year I tried to trade the #1 scoring TE in the league and could not get anything in return for value most was a RB3 steady bench player. I was floored. The next year, to confirm my lesson of hard knocks, i offered a top teir TE again and got nothing of value in return.Now, I am a convert. The opportunity cost of getting a top TE early is not worth the cost at other positions. Last year I lucked out and got Witten in a few drafts. This year I try and get Owens or Schefter
 
I'd also like to know what kind of bids in auctions people are seeing....I seem to see a slightly lesser cost but not much.

 
BigRed said:
I'd also like to know what kind of bids in auctions people are seeing....I seem to see a slightly lesser cost but not much.
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10 Team 1/2/2/1/1/1, no PPR, 1pt/10yds league with $100 hard cap. Auction is one time blind bid.I got Witten for $10.50, but only after another owner & I had to have a bid off. We both bid $9.50 the first time.Winslow was the next highest @ $9.10.Gates went cheap (around $7) due to injury & time he came up during the draft.Most of the rest were $1 - $4.
 
With Farve in a Jet uniform, does that raise the possibility of a Jet TE becoming a top 10 TE? Keller looks like the guy to do it, although Baker is the starter.

 
jon_mx said:
With Farve in a Jet uniform, does that raise the possibility of a Jet TE becoming a top 10 TE? Keller looks like the guy to do it, although Baker is the starter.
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And Franks is the one he's used to. :bag: Top ten is optimistic, but who knows how the Favre targets will shake out?
 
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Ended up w/ Scheffler in the 13th last weekend :unsure:

Missed O Daniels in the 8th by a couple picks (14 team league - doesn't help the cause)

Then (soon) after the draft reports out about Nate Jackson... Hopefully Scheff will be the guy. Fasano in the 18th round. Not pretty w/ the TEs this year.

Went MBIII, Braylon, Calvin, Marshall - so had to focus on RBs w/ Cutler mixed in RDs 5-8.

ETA - D. Rosario in CAR looks like another decent late round option.

 
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Mystery Achiever said:
jon_mx said:
With Farve in a Jet uniform, does that raise the possibility of a Jet TE becoming a top 10 TE? Keller looks like the guy to do it, although Baker is the starter.
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And Franks is the one he's used to. :unsure: Top ten is optimistic, but who knows how the Favre targets will shake out?
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Franks may be the guy he's used to, but Franks just isn't that good anymore. And Brett just didn't use him all that much recently. 3 TD's last year (short year - 8 games), 0 in 06 (full 16 games) and 1 in 05 (another short year - 10 games)He only has 1 catch in the preseason. Maybe because Favre is used to him and they want to get the other guys in the game, but he's a shell of the guy that caught 9 TD's a few years ago...
 
I avoided the 1st TE run. Was hoping to grab one of Daniels, Scheffler, or Heap in the 2nd run and missed out on all of them. Was stuck picking Ben Watson in the 12th. Now I gotta pray some TE emerges out of nowhere or Im going to have to trade for one. :unsure:

 
I keep ending up with Vernon Davis pretty late - after about 10 or so other TE's are off the board. I've been taking him over Zach Miller (who I really like too) and Scheffler (who I really liked for the last two years but doesn't seem to be able to get on the field enough so I've cooled on him).

I'm good with Davis, at the price I've been getting him at he doesn't have to do much, and if Martz is serious about having him run receiver routes...

 
TheFanatic said:
The Man with the Plan said:
People say this mess every year. You can wait on a tight end. They're not that important. And then as usual guys like Gates and Gonzalez still wind up at the top. Witten's up there now too and with Romo as his QB I don't see that changing. Having a 5+point advantage over most teams at one position is huge. That's what happens when you have a top tight end. If you want to draft some guys hoping that they can reach that level be my guest. Don't be surprised when they disappoint again. I'll stick to the proven players who have already shown elite talent.
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Don't forget about Winslow, Clark, and Cooley Those along with Witten, Gates, and Gonzo are your top 6 from last year. Those 6 scored well above 100 in a standard (non PPR) league. Witten - 149

Gates - 145

Gonzo - 139

Winslow - 135

Clark - 121

Cooley - 121.

After that it drops down to Miller at 93, Daniels at 88, and Lee at 87 (all three seem poised on the cusp of taking that next step).

In 2006 you see only 1 guy over the 121 mark that 6 guys were higher or equal to in 2007:

Gates - 139

Crumper - 118

Bonzo - 115

Heap - 105

Cooley - 104

Winslow - 99

Shockey - 97

Back in 2003 only two TE's broke 100. Gonzo at 144 and Sharpe at 119.

Similar production in 2005:

Gates - 164

Shockey - 125

Heap - 119

CRumpler - 113

Cooley - 112

Witten - 105

Gonzo - 97

In 2004, Gates and Gonzo have MONSTER years but the production is pretty low after that in respect to other years:

Gates - 169

Gonzo - 161

Witten - 128

Crumpler - 106

McMichael - 97

Shockey - 97

In 2003, only two guys had over 100:

Gonzo - 144

Sharpe - 119

Heap came in 3rd at 88.

I think it is pretty clear that we are seeing more scoring at the TE position, but only a couple of the guys are up there in the range of being equivalent to an extra WR on the team. That and 10pts/game on average is few and far between. Be happy with 120 on a season or 7.5 a game and don't spend the early pick on a guy that can possibly get that 10 points per game because the odds are against him doing it and the difference between that 2.5 points and the other player you draft in that spot aren't that great...
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:thumbup: :) :goodposting: The difference today is that the TE is simply used more as an offensive threat because of the type of athletes that are playing the position. the fact is there will be many more TEs that score well than there was even 2 or 3 years ago - meaning the gap between Gates in the 4th round and Miller/McMichael/Schefler/etc in the 10th, 12th, etc rounds is shrinking. that 4 point gap may be eliminated entirely. Taking two TEs in 12th and 13th rounds that are great potential guys allows you to build a more solid team at RB and even moreso with WRs and QBs in those middle rounds. And taking two of them gives you a fantastic chance of landing one who ends up around 5th overall in production and thus incredible value. The TE pool is deeper than its ever been before this year. I think you'd be a fool to overspend on Gates or Witten with the other guys that are just waiting to bust out.

 
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