8 replies to this topic

[butcher boy]

I'm trying to come up with a decent, yet not too complex power rankings formula. So far I'm using the following factors in the formula I have. The percentage next to it is how much average weight that factor has on the overall power score.

- Wins - 40%
- Points Scored - 15%
- Yards/Game - 10%
- Points Allowed - 15%
- Yards Allowed/Game - 10%
- Turnover Differential - 5%
- Penalty Yards - 5%

I feel like Wins should be the heaviest factor when it comes ot this but I'm not sure about the other stat categories I'm using. Am I missing any big ones?

To get a feel for these rankings, I plugged last year's final regular season numbers into it and get this.

New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
San Diego Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Seattle Seahawks
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals
Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints
Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions
New York Jets
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
St. Louis Rams
Miami Dolphins

Any thoughts on those results?

[Phil Elliott]

Whats the purpose of your rankings? Are you trying to predict each weeks games, the standings at the end of the year, or someting else? Just trying to understand the purpose of the rankings. For example, NYG end up #12 in your rankings, but they won it all last year.

[butcher boy]

Whats the purpose of your rankings? Are you trying to predict each weeks games, the standings at the end of the year, or someting else? Just trying to understand the purpose of the rankings. For example, NYG end up #12 in your rankings, but they won it all last year.

The purpose is for a contest/game I'm doing where people guess the end of season power rankings. I'm trying to come up with something similar to the power rankings that espn.com and SI.com posts each week.

The reason the Giants are so low is because these rankings are only through the end of the regular season. The Giants finished at only 10-6, and weren't too dominant in any of the categories I'm using.

[T Bell]

(points scored * wins) - (opponents' points * losses)

[zanti8]

this is the system i use for determining "power rankings" of nfl champs over nfl history :

win % + % of points scored out of points scored+ points allowed

example :

team goes 8-2 scores 300 allows 200

win % = .80

points scored % = .60

total ranking = 1.40

i always include playoff points/record also ....unless your contest is "regular season ranking"....

Edited by zanti8, 31 July 2008 - 02:43 PM.

[butcher boy]

(points scored * wins) - (opponents' points * losses)

Wow, this looks decent. Last years stats using this formula.

New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers
San Diego Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns
New York Giants
Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Atlanta Falcons
St. Louis Rams
Miami Dolphins

[butcher boy]

this is the system i use for determining "power rankings" of nfl champs over nfl history :

win % + % of points scored out of points scored+ points allowed

example :

team goes 8-2 scores 300 allows 200

win % = .80

points scored % = .60

total ranking = 1.40

i always include playoff points/record also ....unless your contest is "regular season ranking"....

Here's what your formula looks like with last year's stats. Pretty good too.

New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts
Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys
San Diego Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks
New York Giants
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints
Chicago Bears
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons
St. Louis Rams
Miami Dolphins

[DoubleDown]

It won't mean much unless you include the quality of teams they have faced. You should add opponents win % into the equation somehow. Otherwise you will have teams like the 4-2 lions after 6 weeks last year near the top, when really they just beat a bunch of bad teams.

[oddball]

Neat website I just came across