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Help me come up with a Power Rankings formula


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#1 butcher boy

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Posted 31 July 2008 - 01:08 PM

I'm trying to come up with a decent, yet not too complex power rankings formula. So far I'm using the following factors in the formula I have. The percentage next to it is how much average weight that factor has on the overall power score.- Wins - 40%- Points Scored - 15%- Yards/Game - 10%- Points Allowed - 15%- Yards Allowed/Game - 10%- Turnover Differential - 5%- Penalty Yards - 5%I feel like Wins should be the heaviest factor when it comes ot this but I'm not sure about the other stat categories I'm using. Am I missing any big ones?To get a feel for these rankings, I plugged last year's final regular season numbers into it and get this.

New England PatriotsIndianapolis ColtsDallas CowboysGreen Bay PackersSan Diego ChargersJacksonville JaguarsSeattle SeahawksPittsburgh SteelersTampa Bay BuccaneersCleveland BrownsTennessee TitansNew York GiantsWashington RedskinsMinnesota VikingsPhiladelphia EaglesCincinnati BengalsArizona CardinalsHouston TexansNew Orleans SaintsDenver BroncosBuffalo BillsChicago BearsCarolina PanthersDetroit LionsNew York JetsAtlanta FalconsBaltimore RavensSan Francisco 49ersKansas City ChiefsOakland RaidersSt. Louis RamsMiami Dolphins

Any thoughts on those results?



#2 Phil Elliott

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Posted 31 July 2008 - 01:47 PM

Whats the purpose of your rankings? Are you trying to predict each weeks games, the standings at the end of the year, or someting else? Just trying to understand the purpose of the rankings. For example, NYG end up #12 in your rankings, but they won it all last year.

#3 butcher boy

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Posted 31 July 2008 - 02:24 PM

Whats the purpose of your rankings? Are you trying to predict each weeks games, the standings at the end of the year, or someting else? Just trying to understand the purpose of the rankings. For example, NYG end up #12 in your rankings, but they won it all last year.

The purpose is for a contest/game I'm doing where people guess the end of season power rankings. I'm trying to come up with something similar to the power rankings that espn.com and SI.com posts each week.The reason the Giants are so low is because these rankings are only through the end of the regular season. The Giants finished at only 10-6, and weren't too dominant in any of the categories I'm using.

#4 T Bell

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Posted 31 July 2008 - 02:33 PM

(points scored * wins) - (opponents' points * losses)

I hipple so you don't have to.

 

I :wub: nested quotes.


#5 zanti8

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Posted 31 July 2008 - 02:42 PM

this is the system i use for determining "power rankings" of nfl champs over nfl history :

win % + % of points scored out of points scored+ points allowed

example :

team goes 8-2 scores 300 allows 200

win % = .80

points scored % = .60

total ranking = 1.40

i always include playoff points/record also ....unless your contest is "regular season ranking"....

Edited by zanti8, 31 July 2008 - 02:43 PM.


#6 butcher boy

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Posted 31 July 2008 - 02:49 PM

(points scored * wins) - (opponents' points * losses)

Wow, this looks decent. Last years stats using this formula.New England PatriotsIndianapolis ColtsDallas CowboysGreen Bay PackersSan Diego ChargersJacksonville JaguarsPittsburgh SteelersSeattle SeahawksCleveland BrownsNew York GiantsTennessee TitansTampa Bay BuccaneersWashington RedskinsMinnesota VikingsPhiladelphia EaglesArizona CardinalsHouston TexansChicago BearsCincinnati BengalsNew Orleans SaintsCarolina PanthersBuffalo BillsDenver BroncosDetroit LionsBaltimore RavensSan Francisco 49ersKansas City ChiefsNew York JetsOakland RaidersAtlanta FalconsSt. Louis RamsMiami Dolphins

#7 butcher boy

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Posted 31 July 2008 - 02:53 PM

this is the system i use for determining "power rankings" of nfl champs over nfl history :win % + % of points scored out of points scored+ points allowedexample :team goes 8-2 scores 300 allows 200win % = .80points scored % = .60total ranking = 1.40i always include playoff points/record also ....unless your contest is "regular season ranking"....

Here's what your formula looks like with last year's stats. Pretty good too.New England PatriotsIndianapolis ColtsGreen Bay PackersDallas CowboysSan Diego ChargersJacksonville JaguarsPittsburgh SteelersSeattle SeahawksNew York GiantsCleveland BrownsTennessee TitansTampa Bay BuccaneersWashington RedskinsMinnesota VikingsPhiladelphia EaglesArizona CardinalsHouston TexansCincinnati BengalsNew Orleans SaintsChicago BearsDenver BroncosDetroit LionsCarolina PanthersBuffalo BillsBaltimore RavensSan Francisco 49ersNew York JetsOakland RaidersKansas City ChiefsAtlanta FalconsSt. Louis RamsMiami Dolphins

#8 DoubleDown

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Posted 01 August 2008 - 11:00 AM

It won't mean much unless you include the quality of teams they have faced. You should add opponents win % into the equation somehow. Otherwise you will have teams like the 4-2 lions after 6 weeks last year near the top, when really they just beat a bunch of bad teams.

#9 oddball

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Posted 18 September 2008 - 07:02 PM

Neat website I just came across
What a long, strange trip it's been!




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