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passing on AP (1 Viewer)

I'm Rick James

Footballguy
Superstitious about a sophomore slump for AP? No, not really. Although, he is on the cover of the Footballguys.com magazine. Who was last years cover? Willie Parker. Jinx? hmm...

I drafted Adrian Peterson (MIN) last year and enjoyed the fruits of his big games. However, I also saw him at the end of last year post-injury. He was certainly stoppable in those last few games. Granted, it could have been lingering effects from his injury.

I think AP will still get the majority of carries, but watching Chester Taylor spell him successfully, I don't see why they wouldn't continue to use him as well. Especially, when up big or down big.

(FYI - I'm in a half-PPR league).

While the coaching staff says he'll be involved more in the passing game, I'm thinking how much? Chester seems adept at this as well.

The pros for AP -- awesome runner with great o-line, coaches committed to the run, and potential for a lot of TD's.

Let's say you're at least thinking of someone else at #2. Here are some candidates:

1. Brian Westbrook (nice in half-PPR format) - never plays 16 games, is coming off a career year, and coaches want to get other backs involved more. This is my top choice for #2 consideration. I still think Philly needs to ride Westy to be successful. Even if his 90 receptions from 2007 come back to his mean of around 70, that's still a lot of points.

2. Stephen Jackson -- contract hold-out, tough year last year, but potential for big TD's and possibly receptions. (if we look back two years). Orlando Pace healthy this year. Bulger has better backup now.

3. Joseph Addai -- big TD's, plays on awesome offense. Receptions not that high because of talented QB and receivers. Concern -- D. Rhodes is back and may steal a few more carries per game from Addai this year.

4. Frank Gore -- QB question marks. Can Martz make Alex Smith or another QB keep defenses somewhat honest against the run? Martz is looking to get Gore more involved in passing game. TD's might not be good, but Gore's receptions this year may make up for it.

One may suggest trading out of that position. I've put a trade offer out there to slide down a couple of picks, but no bites from those owners.

Maybe I'm a little drunk on a Monster caffeine rush, but I'm leaning towards Westy or Gore over AP. Am I crazy? :bag:

Rick James

 
I agree. I have a bad feeling about taking ADP that high this year. And I really don't want my #2 overall pick to be in a timeshare.

 
You're crazy. Don't be fooled by the post injury AP from last year. I had him too and you know that he was not the same player post injury. The burst wasn't there and he became a good, not great RB as a result.

Will that burst be back this season after a full offseason of rehab and rest. I think so.

The only player you should even remotely consider instead is Stephen Jackson and that's only if you convince yourself that full health plus the Al Saunders effect will take SJax to the next level.

 
Keep in mind, ADP looked like early 2007 ADP in the pro-bowl. That wasn't just nobody playing Defense, that was him finally being healthy again. At 2, I'm all over ADP, he's just too talented and in a perfect situation.

As far as the time share, I again point to healthy ADP last year. When healthy, he had plenty of touches, and that's without being involved in the passing game. Now he's supposedly improved in that aspect also? He's too good not to be on the field, and when he's out there, he flat out produces.

 
in a .5PPR, i think westbrook will outscore ADP. (by about 30 points). i've got gore and ADP pretty much even.

if it's possible to trade the pick or draft ADP and trade him (for the right value), i'd try to do that.

if not, and you really don't feel good about ADP, take westbrook.

it wouldn't be the 1st time the fantasy world has been wrong about who the surefire top picks should be.

 
Why don't you draft him and then try to trade him to the Westy or Sjax owner then? You could easily pick up another ptty decent player.

 
I am as big of a believer in AD's talent as you will find, and I would probably take him at #2.

However, there are enough question marks that I wouldn't fault anyone for passing on him there, and certainly wouldn't throw it back in their face even if he blows up.

 
in a .5PPR, i think westbrook will outscore ADP. (by about 30 points). i've got gore and ADP pretty much even.

if it's possible to trade the pick or draft ADP and trade him (for the right value), i'd try to do that.

if not, and you really don't feel good about ADP, take westbrook.

it wouldn't be the 1st time the fantasy world has been wrong about who the surefire top picks should be.
You got that right. Turnover is 50% among the top10 RB's every year. Not only that, but every year at least one of the top 3 consensus won't finish there.
 
I drew the #2 slot in our draft this year. I really did want that pick, and did not want to take ADP but felt like I had no other choice. Very fortunately for me, ADP went #1 which left me with a no brainer decision.

 
Keep in mind, ADP looked like early 2007 ADP in the pro-bowl. That wasn't just nobody playing Defense, that was him finally being healthy again. At 2, I'm all over ADP, he's just too talented and in a perfect situation.As far as the time share, I again point to healthy ADP last year. When healthy, he had plenty of touches, and that's without being involved in the passing game. Now he's supposedly improved in that aspect also? He's too good not to be on the field, and when he's out there, he flat out produces.
Like he said, it doesn't mean too much. But...I watched ADP at the Pro Bowl in person and it's amazing how much better he looked than everyone else. I've watched a lot of Pro Bowls (it's our only chance at watching NFL guys, gimme a break!) , and I can't remember seeing anyone like him. I have the #2 draft pick and I just could not forgive myself for passing on him based on what my eyes tell me.
 
Well ask yourself this. Would you forgive yourself if you passed up on ADP and he went for 2000 total yards and 15 TDs? Even if Westbrook and Jackson had good seasons(say 1700 TY and 12 TD?

Would you forgive yourself if Westbrook went for 2000 total yards and 15 TD even if ADP had a good season?

How you answer these questions really determines how you should pick IMO. If I passed on ADP and saw him do something historic(which I believe he has the ability to do), then I would kick myself for awhile. But that's JMO.

 
e-baller said:
anybody concerned about his schedule at all?doesn't seem especially friendly.
:blackdot: I am worried, BIGTIME..and , I'm worried about his injury-riddled past..and worried about Tavaris Jackson..:lmao:I just traded away ADP in a keeper league..
 
Mene said:
Keep in mind, ADP looked like early 2007 ADP in the pro-bowl. That wasn't just nobody playing Defense, that was him finally being healthy again. At 2, I'm all over ADP, he's just too talented and in a perfect situation.

As far as the time share, I again point to healthy ADP last year. When healthy, he had plenty of touches, and that's without being involved in the passing game. Now he's supposedly improved in that aspect also? He's too good not to be on the field, and when he's out there, he flat out produces.
:confused: the pro bowl defenses are identical to week one preseason defenses, i.e., greatly watered down... :rolleyes:

 
I would stay away from him at #2 due to the potential for high "homerun or strikeout" type deviations in weekly scoring. I'm looking for "steady eddie" with my first pick but that's just me.

 
Texican said:
I drew the #2 slot in our draft this year. I really did want that pick, and did not want to take ADP but felt like I had no other choice. Very fortunately for me, ADP went #1 which left me with a no brainer decision.
This may happen for me too but I would gladly take ADP over anyone else. I like the high risk reward types..
 
It may be somewhat simplistic, but I am a believer in drafting talent over any other variable.

It's too difficult to project things like a team's SOS vs the run, or the likelihood of injury, or even how personnel changes will affect scheme.

Sure you have to consider league scoring systems, but given the turnover at the top, just pick the most talented back and realize that it's mostly luck after that.

For me, ADP is one of the two most talented backs in the league. I wouldn't pass on him.

 
I would pass on him at the 2nd pick for sure.

I think the world of him from the standpoint of excitement and personally being at a game, but from a Fantasy point of view I don't like his opportunity.

He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards. He will likely end up with numerous games like these:

20 66

12 63

20 70

11 45

14 3

20 78

9 27

11 36

He had 520 yards in two games, nearly 40% of his total!

He had 6 TDs in two games, 50% of his total!

That does not bode well for the rest of your season ... with T. Jackson at the helm I don't care who the O-Line is, Defenses will more regularly stop both Peterson and Taylor.

 
He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards.
You're just kidding right?Peterson is an unbelievable talent, with his whole career ahead of him. If you really are considering passing on him, don't do it for anyone other than Westbrook.
 
God I hope I'm drafting with people like you guys. If you are going to talk yourself out of AP due to team situation, injury history, or concerns about sharing time, there really shouldn't be a guy you like in the first round except for Addai.

SJAX: Team situation is not good and holdout is not good. Add in injury history and he's way more risky than AP

Westy: Talk about being the only show in town, Westy is the only real offensive threat on his team, plus the injury history (which is better but dude is getting up there.) If injury concerns are your worry, pass on him too.

Barber: Timeshare concerns

Gore: Team concerns, o-line concerns, injury concerns

LJ: Injury concerns, o-line concerns, QB concerns

AP is no more of a risk than any other player on the board, and has a much, much higher ceiling than anyone else other than LT.

 
He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards.
You're just kidding right?Peterson is an unbelievable talent, with his whole career ahead of him. If you really are considering passing on him, don't do it for anyone other than Westbrook.
I am taking Steven Jackson over him at #2.
I'm a big Jackson fan and I love what he brings to the table, but the guy is holding out right now with no end in sight. In addition, he plays behind an inferior offensive line. Both players are coming off seasons where they missed games due to injury. What is it about Jackson that you like over Peterson?
 
He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards.
You're just kidding right?Peterson is an unbelievable talent, with his whole career ahead of him. If you really are considering passing on him, don't do it for anyone other than Westbrook.
I am taking Steven Jackson over him at #2.
I'm a big Jackson fan and I love what he brings to the table, but the guy is holding out right now with no end in sight. In addition, he plays behind an inferior offensive line. Both players are coming off seasons where they missed games due to injury. What is it about Jackson that you like over Peterson?
It's not like they missed equal time either. Jackson was out for way longer.What cracks me up about supposed fantasy "gurus" and their judgement of AP is that they look at his rookie season like it's his ceiling. Guys, it was his first year in the league, he didn't start the whole season, and he missed two games due to injury. If anything, his numbers from last season are more likely to be closer to his floor than his ceiling. Could he get injured again? Of course. Is he more likely than just about any other back out there to get injured? No. Again, it was his rookie season. Repeat that ten times in your head.

 
I'm a big Jackson fan and I love what he brings to the table, but the guy is holding out right now with no end in sight. In addition, he plays behind an inferior offensive line. Both players are coming off seasons where they missed games due to injury. What is it about Jackson that you like over Peterson?
#1 Adrian Petersen has a long history of injuries dating back to college. Jackson does not.#2 Petersen is part of a committee. Jackson is not.#3 Jackson catches the ball alot more than Petersen.#4 If I want to handcuff Jackson, I don't have to waste a high pick the way I would with Petersen.
 
What evidence do you have for #2, and I guess I have to ask what your definition of committee is. Remember, Jackson was part of a committee with a very talented, veteran back his rookie year. In fact, most rookie backs start out as part of a committee. Everything I have heard about AP this offseason is that he's improved as a blocker, is going to be more involved in the passing game, etc.

 
I'm a big Jackson fan and I love what he brings to the table, but the guy is holding out right now with no end in sight. In addition, he plays behind an inferior offensive line. Both players are coming off seasons where they missed games due to injury. What is it about Jackson that you like over Peterson?
#1 Adrian Petersen has a long history of injuries dating back to college. Jackson does not.#2 Petersen is part of a committee. Jackson is not.#3 Jackson catches the ball alot more than Petersen.#4 If I want to handcuff Jackson, I don't have to waste a high pick the way I would with Petersen.
1. Yes Peterson has a history of injuries. The helmet that he took to his knee would've injured anyone, regardless of history. The collarbone break at Oklahoma was fluky. I'm not saying he's less or more prone to injury than another guy but its only his 2nd year in the league. I'm not ready to throw the injury flag yet.2 & 4. Personally I'm more concerned with the guys on the field than off it. Peterson runs behind a much better offensive line and that takes priority to me over the 2nd string RB. How many times on this board last season did people beg Brad Childress to unleash this beast. If you wanna go the handcuff route then yes, Chester will cost more than the St. Louis backups. That doesn’t affect who I take at #2 tho.3. In this scenario it is 0.5 PPR. In 2006 Jackson touched the ball 436 times, a huge huge amount. With the 0.5 PPR Jackson averaged 0.86 points per touch. Last year as a rookie Peterson averaged 0.97 points per touch. Let’s say you project Jackson for 320 carries and 60 catches which I think is a reasonable if not overly reasonable number. If they keep the same averages, Peterson getting 300 carries and 35 catches would put them at about the same total points. Personally, I don’t think Jackson gets 45 more touches than Peterson does for the season.I think Jackson is a great player and definitely think he’s a top 5 back, but I think that Peterson is something special, and that’s the guy that I want on my team.
 
I would pass on him at the 2nd pick for sure.I think the world of him from the standpoint of excitement and personally being at a game, but from a Fantasy point of view I don't like his opportunity.He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards. He will likely end up with numerous games like these:20 6612 6320 7011 4514 320 789 2711 36
How about games like these...17 2518 4322 6221 6716 4016 6224 7716 5621 427 282 5Those are all game logs from Ladainian Tomlinson in 2007.People have unrealistic expectations. Even the best players put up stinkers, and quite a few of them, and that includes Mr. FF RB himself. When guys don't put up stinkers they score 25 touchdowns or throw for 50 touchdowns, and those seasons are few and far between. If that's what you're expecting to get out of your first round pick every year, then good luck to you.If you're expecting 100 yards, a touchdown, and a 5.0ypc every week with no stinkers in between then you're not being realistic.
 
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I would pass on him at the 2nd pick for sure.I think the world of him from the standpoint of excitement and personally being at a game, but from a Fantasy point of view I don't like his opportunity.He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards. He will likely end up with numerous games like these:20 6612 6320 7011 4514 320 789 2711 36
How about games like these...17 2518 4322 6221 6716 4016 6224 7716 5621 427 282 5Those are all game logs from Ladainian Tomlinson in 2007.People have unrealistic expectations. Even the best players put up stinkers, and quite a few of them, and that includes Mr. FF RB himself. When guys don't put up stinkers they score 25 touchdowns or throw for 50 touchdowns, and those seasons are few and far between. If that's what you're expecting to get out of your first round pick every year, then good luck to you.If you're expecting 100 yards, a touchdown, and a 5.0ypc every week with no stinkers in between then you're not being realistic.
:)
 
I have AP at #2 but hes far from a slam dunk. More than Chester looming in the background, Im worried that Tavaris Jackson will not make strides at QB. AP could have a Gore-like meltdown in year two if there are no other threats on the field to keep him honest.

That said, the OL IS great and is the driving factor that makes me believe his production will not falter. His playoff schedule doesnt hurt either. :)

 
I would pass on him at the 2nd pick for sure.I think the world of him from the standpoint of excitement and personally being at a game, but from a Fantasy point of view I don't like his opportunity.He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards. He will likely end up with numerous games like these:20 6612 6320 7011 4514 320 789 2711 36
How about games like these...17 2518 4322 6221 6716 4016 6224 7716 5621 427 282 5Those are all game logs from Ladainian Tomlinson in 2007.People have unrealistic expectations. Even the best players put up stinkers, and quite a few of them, and that includes Mr. FF RB himself. When guys don't put up stinkers they score 25 touchdowns or throw for 50 touchdowns, and those seasons are few and far between. If that's what you're expecting to get out of your first round pick every year, then good luck to you.If you're expecting 100 yards, a touchdown, and a 5.0ypc every week with no stinkers in between then you're not being realistic.
Couldn't have said it any better.
 
I am considering ADP over LT at #1 over in REDRAFT. This kid has everything going for him, IMO. The backfield committee isn't a bad thing, it will keep him healthy, and you can land C. Taylor and have a guaranteed solid RB...whereas LT has nobody backing him up should his VERY WORN DOWN TIRES become flat.

Great OL, superior talent, coaches want to give him the ball more, will keep fresh legs for weeks 14-17, one good year under his belt...championship.

 
i really really like Addai but i can't justify anyone taking him at #2 other than saying, "ive got a hunch".

His receptions are down because of the big name WRs on offense, but they are getting older, and in Harrison's case, injuries are becoming a concern.

They've got a very good OL, a great QB and a very good defense. I think Addai will outperform his projected output ... idk, 15-16 TDs.

 
He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards.
You're just kidding right?Peterson is an unbelievable talent, with his whole career ahead of him. If you really are considering passing on him, don't do it for anyone other than Westbrook.
I have no idea what he is saying. There have been much more than 14 games in which a RB got 200 yards.
 
He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards.
You're just kidding right?Peterson is an unbelievable talent, with his whole career ahead of him. If you really are considering passing on him, don't do it for anyone other than Westbrook.
I have no idea what he is saying. There have been much more than 14 games in which a RB got 200 yards.
Forget it, he's rolling.
 
Folks,

Please forgive me for a mistake in my previous posting, I was quoting an article from the NFL Hall of Fame which was referencing games for RB's with 237 yards or more a game. That is where the 14 came from.

Just so it is clear, I believe that Adrian Peterson is an exciting RB, I just don't believe from a fantasy perspective he is worth the #1 or #2 slot off of the board with his supporting cast and opportunity.

Also think it is totally unrealistic to believe that Peterson is going to rip off 200+ yard games on a regular basis which is where most of his Fantasy points came from [Two games].

O. Simpson did it 7 times.

T. Barber and E. Dickerson did it 5 times.

L. Tomlinson, B. Sanders, E. Campbell and J. Brown did it 4 times.

T. Davis, M. Faulk, C. Dillon and J. Lewis only did it 3 times.

R. Williams, C. Portis, W. Payton, W. Parker, L. Johnson, E. James and S. Alexander only did it twice.

E. Smith and C. Martin only did it once.

There is two points here.

a) Peterson is already in great company by what he has accomplished.

b) Don't expect it to be repeated on a regular basis, and that means you should really, really temper your expectations for 2008.

Thanks for pointing out the comparison to LT2 ... too bad that you missed the fact that LT2 scored over 300 points in his 14 games even with the acknowledged stinkers [That's more than 5 ppg higher than Peterson].

LT2 had natural giftedness and opportunity. Peterson does not have the opportunity and thus he has very little chance of meeting the expectations of a #1 or #2 off of the board, simple as that.

 
Folks,Please forgive me for a mistake in my previous posting, I was quoting an article from the NFL Hall of Fame which was referencing games for RB's with 237 yards or more a game. That is where the 14 came from.Just so it is clear, I believe that Adrian Peterson is an exciting RB, I just don't believe from a fantasy perspective he is worth the #1 or #2 slot off of the board with his supporting cast and opportunity.Also think it is totally unrealistic to believe that Peterson is going to rip off 200+ yard games on a regular basis which is where most of his Fantasy points came from [Two games].O. Simpson did it 7 times.T. Barber and E. Dickerson did it 5 times.L. Tomlinson, B. Sanders, E. Campbell and J. Brown did it 4 times.T. Davis, M. Faulk, C. Dillon and J. Lewis only did it 3 times.R. Williams, C. Portis, W. Payton, W. Parker, L. Johnson, E. James and S. Alexander only did it twice.E. Smith and C. Martin only did it once.There is two points here.a) Peterson is already in great company by what he has accomplished.b) Don't expect it to be repeated on a regular basis, and that means you should really, really temper your expectations for 2008.Thanks for pointing out the comparison to LT2 ... too bad that you missed the fact that LT2 scored over 300 points in his 14 games even with the acknowledged stinkers [That's more than 5 ppg higher than Peterson].LT2 had natural giftedness and opportunity. Peterson does not have the opportunity and thus he has very little chance of meeting the expectations of a #1 or #2 off of the board, simple as that.
I disagree that Peterson does not have the opportunity. He made his own opportunities with many of those ankle breaker jukes he threw against defenders, and that is what resulted in his huge ability to break off long runs. You combine that ability which he unquestionably has, and combine that with an above average o-line creating holes, add another year of experience with an offseason spent learning the nuances of pro-game and patience for when to strike the hole and you have a lot of what it takes to be a top back.If by lack of opportunity, you are referring to Minnesota's passing game, we'll have to see if it stagnates around last years point or if the entire offense takes an upturn this year. It might be asking a lot of Jackson to step his game up, however the Vikings did not have a playmaking WR last year. They expect to allow Berrian's speed to let the team go over the top times with less fear of a Troy Williamson facemask bounce. The reports are the Vikings are going to pass more this preseason, so if they achieve even a modicum of success there that will surely translate to the regular season. That will mean great things for Peterson's opportunities.
 
Dancing Bear said:
Peterson does not have the opportunity and thus he has very little chance of meeting the expectations of a #1 or #2 off of the board, simple as that.
I respectfully disagree.You have completely discounted the fact that he was hurt last season, missing 2.5 games and not being anything close to his normal self for another 5.Also, you forget that he was a rookie and should be better with a season under his belt.Finally, you're assuming that Chet Taylor will see a similar amount of looks as last season. I'll argue that while it was a close split early in the season, as AP established his dominance and earned Childress' confidence his share steadily increased to the point where he got 30+ touches in the record breaking game.This will not be a 50/50 type deal this year. More like 65/35 or even 70/30. AP will have plenty of opportunities. LT doesn't get 100% of the touches in SD. No RB does.
 
LILB811 said:
Dancing Bear said:
He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards.
You're just kidding right?Peterson is an unbelievable talent, with his whole career ahead of him. If you really are considering passing on him, don't do it for anyone other than Westbrook.
I'm not sure I could pass on ADP, but if I did, Westy is the only guy I would possibly put ahead of him.
 
LILB811 said:
Dancing Bear said:
He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards.
You're just kidding right?Peterson is an unbelievable talent, with his whole career ahead of him. If you really are considering passing on him, don't do it for anyone other than Westbrook.
I'm not sure I could pass on ADP, but if I did, Westy is the only guy I would possibly put ahead of him.
I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for taking Westbrook over Peterson. I just don't see why Jackson would be a more palatable option than Peterson because they share a lot of the same negatives, but Peterson's ceiling can't be ignored.
 
Dancing Bear said:
Peterson does not have the opportunity and thus he has very little chance of meeting the expectations of a #1 or #2 off of the board, simple as that.
I respectfully disagree.You have completely discounted the fact that he was hurt last season, missing 2.5 games and not being anything close to his normal self for another 5.

Also, you forget that he was a rookie and should be better with a season under his belt.

Finally, you're assuming that Chet Taylor will see a similar amount of looks as last season. I'll argue that while it was a close split early in the season, as AP established his dominance and earned Childress' confidence his share steadily increased to the point where he got 30+ touches in the record breaking game.

This will not be a 50/50 type deal this year. More like 65/35 or even 70/30. AP will have plenty of opportunities. LT doesn't get 100% of the touches in SD. No RB does.
I can't wait until the guy in my dynasty league trying to fleece me for CT realizes this.
 
LILB811 said:
Dancing Bear said:
He will likely never get another 200+ yard game in his career. There have only been 14 total games where a RB got 200 or more yards.
You're just kidding right?Peterson is an unbelievable talent, with his whole career ahead of him. If you really are considering passing on him, don't do it for anyone other than Westbrook.
I'm not sure I could pass on ADP, but if I did, Westy is the only guy I would possibly put ahead of him.
I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for taking Westbrook over Peterson. I just don't see why Jackson would be a more palatable option than Peterson because they share a lot of the same negatives, but Peterson's ceiling can't be ignored.
for me it's mostly because of the STL offense...the line, lack of a good WR2, defense that doesn't get off the field. I'll put possible holdout at the end here because I don't think it'll last long. My concern would be a holdout like LJ's last year. When he does return he might not be in game shape in time to handle a load like he is used to and have a higher chance of injury.
 
for me it's mostly because of the STL offense...the line, lack of a good WR2, defense that doesn't get off the field. I'll put possible holdout at the end here because I don't think it'll last long. My concern would be a holdout like LJ's last year. When he does return he might not be in game shape in time to handle a load like he is used to and have a higher chance of injury.
Lack of a good WR2??????Keenan Burton's going to surprise a lot of people. :football:
 

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