bigmiiiiike
Footballguy
I'm very loyal to footballguys and almost exclusively get my fantasy info through this site. Just for kicks, I went into the 2007 archived articles to see if my loyalty was "worth it." I wanted to see if some of the specific predictions made by the staff were accurate, and if followed by me, would've helped me win my league. I started with Dodds' Perfect Draft - 12 team article, and some of his calls at this time last year make me want to refer to him as The Oracle. Here is a review of his main tenets from that article, with my commentary added:
QBs:
"In the seventh round, grab Young, Romo or Kitna when it's your time to draft."
- One out of three isn't the greatest, but he sure did hit a home run with the one. At the same time, even if you blew your 7th rounder on Young or Kitna, it was only a 7th rounder, and his overall strategy is to build RB/WR depth in rounds 1-6, so you could still survive if you didn't end up with Romo in the 7th.
"If Young, Romo and Kitna are gone by the time you draft in the seventh round, look to grab Ben Roethlisberger, Pit in the eighth round."
- GREAT CALL DD!!!
"I would target these values later in the draft for added depth:
Brett Favre, GB (Value = 94, ADP = 108) with pick 9.05 or later.
Alex Smith, SF (Value = 98, ADP = 117) with pick 9.12 or later.
Rex Grossman, Chi (Value = 101, ADP = 150) with pick 11.06 or later.
Byron Leftwich, Jac (Value = 133, ADP = 165) with pick 13.05 or later "
- Again, one out of four isn't the greatest, but these are late "flier" type picks, so cut him some slack. If you got Favre from his advice here, you were a happy camper.
RBs:
"Simply select a RB in the first round regardless of draft slot."
and
"I count eighteen backs this year that do not appear to be in RBBC situations. They are:
LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
Steven Jackson, StL
Larry Johnson, KC
Frank Gore, SF
Willie Parker, Pit
Brian Westbrook, Phi
Travis Henry, Den
Joseph Addai, Ind (Team ran RBBC last season and has hinted that they still want to do it, but no one has emerged)
Rudi Johnson, Cin
Laurence Maroney, NE (Team ran RBBC last season, but Corey Dillon retired)
Shaun Alexander, Sea
Ronnie Brown, Mia
Willis McGahee, Bal
Cedric Benson, Chi
Edgerrin James, Ari
Cadillac Williams, TB
Jamal Lewis, Cle
Ahman Green, Hou
A few more backs are in unclear situations:
Clinton Portis, Was (Emergence of Betts and Portis injuries may create a RBBC)
Brandon Jacobs, NYG (Untested as a feature back) "
- As always, there are some busts in this list, but I think there were more happy GMs than not that selected RBs from this list in the early rounds.
"This is NOT the year to open RB-RB-RB."
and
"Additionally I would keep my eye on these RBs throughout the draft. They all should represent great value against their ADP:
Fred Taylor (value = 56, ADP = 71) with pick 6.04 or later.
Tatum Bell (value = 59, ADP = 73) with pick 6.05 or later
DeShaun Foster (value = 55, ADP = 102) with pick 6.08 or later
LenDale White (value = 70, ADP = 104) with pick 7.10 or later
Leon Washington (value = 80, ADP = 144) with pick 9.01 or later
Brian Leonard (value = 148, ADP = 198) with pick 14.01 or later "
- DD recognizing the trend of RBBC, so the strategy of get non-RBBC guys if you can early, and then there are plenty of RBBC value guys later is spot on. The Fred Taylor and Lendale White calls were impressive. Brian Leonard was also a good call given the SJax injury, especially in the 14th round.
WRs:
"Grab 3 receivers in rounds 2 through 6 and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does."
Guys he targets fairly early are (I'll paraphrase because this is a long section):
- Housh at 3.01 or later
- Javon Walker at 3.04 or later
- Driver at 4.02 or later
- Plax at 4.08 or later
- Santana Moss at 5.03 or later
- Calvin Johnson at 5.05 or later
- Braylon at 5.09 or later
- Deion Branch at 5.10 or later
- Cotchery at 7.05 or later
- Santonio at 8.02 or later
- This is an EXHAUSTIVE list of all recommended WRs by DD through round 8. He NAILED the Housh, Plax, Braylon, and Santonio picks. The Cotchery pick was solid. The Walker, Driver, Moss, CJ, and Branch picks fizzled out. Overall, this is an pretty incredible success rate for WRs that were far from clearcut studs heading into last season.
- DD also called Roddy White at 16.01 or later
TEs:
"So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).
The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Jason Witten (Value = 106, ADP = 105) with pick 10.01 or later. He isn't overpriced, but has been steadily increasing his ADP all summer. It's not a sexy pick, but I expect he will be solid all year long. He only scored 1 TD last season, but managed 6 in each of the previous two years. This lack of TD production translated into his fantasy value sliding to 12th overall (from 6th in 2005 and 3rd in 2004). But the fact that his targets increased from 2005 to 2006 (from 89 to 93) indicates the TD decline could have been a fluke. He is being drafted as TE9 which to me represents his floor. He could easily yield top 5 production for a fraction of what a Todd Heap costs."
- HE CALLED WITTEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:
Ben Watson, NE (value = 109, ADP = 111) with pick 10.05 or later. He is getting absolutely no love since the Patriots acquired Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker in the offseason. Last year, I saw many instances where Watson was being double-covered. I even remember some games where he had a spy watching him (I laughed pretty hard at that). Teams feared his run after the catch abilities and absolutely feared none of the New England receivers. I expect the additions of deep-threats Moss and Stallworth will actually open up the Watson routes. So before leaving him for dead, understand that Watson has a great opportunity to have his best year yet. Against single coverage, he could rise to the elite status many of us thought he would achiev in 2006.
Bo Scaife, Ten (value = 189, ADP = 253) with pick 18.01 or later. He is running with the first team and Tennessee has bad WRs. He could be among the league leaders at the position and comes at a bargain basement price. "
- Scaife was a zero, but we're talking about pick 18.01, the Watson call was SPOT ON.
DD deserves a pat on the back. Everyone is always willing to dish out praise for in depth research in the preseason, but rarely does anyone go back and see if that research payed off. This investigation has reaffirmed my faith in fantasy football this site and fantasy football research in general. This proves to me that you really can create a pretty nice edge for yourself by doing your homework.
QBs:
"In the seventh round, grab Young, Romo or Kitna when it's your time to draft."
- One out of three isn't the greatest, but he sure did hit a home run with the one. At the same time, even if you blew your 7th rounder on Young or Kitna, it was only a 7th rounder, and his overall strategy is to build RB/WR depth in rounds 1-6, so you could still survive if you didn't end up with Romo in the 7th.
"If Young, Romo and Kitna are gone by the time you draft in the seventh round, look to grab Ben Roethlisberger, Pit in the eighth round."
- GREAT CALL DD!!!
"I would target these values later in the draft for added depth:
Brett Favre, GB (Value = 94, ADP = 108) with pick 9.05 or later.
Alex Smith, SF (Value = 98, ADP = 117) with pick 9.12 or later.
Rex Grossman, Chi (Value = 101, ADP = 150) with pick 11.06 or later.
Byron Leftwich, Jac (Value = 133, ADP = 165) with pick 13.05 or later "
- Again, one out of four isn't the greatest, but these are late "flier" type picks, so cut him some slack. If you got Favre from his advice here, you were a happy camper.
RBs:
"Simply select a RB in the first round regardless of draft slot."
and
"I count eighteen backs this year that do not appear to be in RBBC situations. They are:
LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
Steven Jackson, StL
Larry Johnson, KC
Frank Gore, SF
Willie Parker, Pit
Brian Westbrook, Phi
Travis Henry, Den
Joseph Addai, Ind (Team ran RBBC last season and has hinted that they still want to do it, but no one has emerged)
Rudi Johnson, Cin
Laurence Maroney, NE (Team ran RBBC last season, but Corey Dillon retired)
Shaun Alexander, Sea
Ronnie Brown, Mia
Willis McGahee, Bal
Cedric Benson, Chi
Edgerrin James, Ari
Cadillac Williams, TB
Jamal Lewis, Cle
Ahman Green, Hou
A few more backs are in unclear situations:
Clinton Portis, Was (Emergence of Betts and Portis injuries may create a RBBC)
Brandon Jacobs, NYG (Untested as a feature back) "
- As always, there are some busts in this list, but I think there were more happy GMs than not that selected RBs from this list in the early rounds.
"This is NOT the year to open RB-RB-RB."
and
"Additionally I would keep my eye on these RBs throughout the draft. They all should represent great value against their ADP:
Fred Taylor (value = 56, ADP = 71) with pick 6.04 or later.
Tatum Bell (value = 59, ADP = 73) with pick 6.05 or later
DeShaun Foster (value = 55, ADP = 102) with pick 6.08 or later
LenDale White (value = 70, ADP = 104) with pick 7.10 or later
Leon Washington (value = 80, ADP = 144) with pick 9.01 or later
Brian Leonard (value = 148, ADP = 198) with pick 14.01 or later "
- DD recognizing the trend of RBBC, so the strategy of get non-RBBC guys if you can early, and then there are plenty of RBBC value guys later is spot on. The Fred Taylor and Lendale White calls were impressive. Brian Leonard was also a good call given the SJax injury, especially in the 14th round.
WRs:
"Grab 3 receivers in rounds 2 through 6 and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does."
Guys he targets fairly early are (I'll paraphrase because this is a long section):
- Housh at 3.01 or later
- Javon Walker at 3.04 or later
- Driver at 4.02 or later
- Plax at 4.08 or later
- Santana Moss at 5.03 or later
- Calvin Johnson at 5.05 or later
- Braylon at 5.09 or later
- Deion Branch at 5.10 or later
- Cotchery at 7.05 or later
- Santonio at 8.02 or later
- This is an EXHAUSTIVE list of all recommended WRs by DD through round 8. He NAILED the Housh, Plax, Braylon, and Santonio picks. The Cotchery pick was solid. The Walker, Driver, Moss, CJ, and Branch picks fizzled out. Overall, this is an pretty incredible success rate for WRs that were far from clearcut studs heading into last season.
- DD also called Roddy White at 16.01 or later
TEs:
"So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over a point or two per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).
The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Jason Witten (Value = 106, ADP = 105) with pick 10.01 or later. He isn't overpriced, but has been steadily increasing his ADP all summer. It's not a sexy pick, but I expect he will be solid all year long. He only scored 1 TD last season, but managed 6 in each of the previous two years. This lack of TD production translated into his fantasy value sliding to 12th overall (from 6th in 2005 and 3rd in 2004). But the fact that his targets increased from 2005 to 2006 (from 89 to 93) indicates the TD decline could have been a fluke. He is being drafted as TE9 which to me represents his floor. He could easily yield top 5 production for a fraction of what a Todd Heap costs."
- HE CALLED WITTEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:
Ben Watson, NE (value = 109, ADP = 111) with pick 10.05 or later. He is getting absolutely no love since the Patriots acquired Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker in the offseason. Last year, I saw many instances where Watson was being double-covered. I even remember some games where he had a spy watching him (I laughed pretty hard at that). Teams feared his run after the catch abilities and absolutely feared none of the New England receivers. I expect the additions of deep-threats Moss and Stallworth will actually open up the Watson routes. So before leaving him for dead, understand that Watson has a great opportunity to have his best year yet. Against single coverage, he could rise to the elite status many of us thought he would achiev in 2006.
Bo Scaife, Ten (value = 189, ADP = 253) with pick 18.01 or later. He is running with the first team and Tennessee has bad WRs. He could be among the league leaders at the position and comes at a bargain basement price. "
- Scaife was a zero, but we're talking about pick 18.01, the Watson call was SPOT ON.
DD deserves a pat on the back. Everyone is always willing to dish out praise for in depth research in the preseason, but rarely does anyone go back and see if that research payed off. This investigation has reaffirmed my faith in fantasy football this site and fantasy football research in general. This proves to me that you really can create a pretty nice edge for yourself by doing your homework.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
and the guy who started this thread keeps saying 'one in three isn't bad..one in four isn't bad...'um,last I checked, it's a measely 2 out of 7 predictions that have worked out.. 
and the guy who started this thread keeps saying 'one in three isn't bad..one in four isn't bad...'um,last I checked, it's a measely 2 out of 7 predictions that have worked out.. 
He's only "Mr. Football", guy.
