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Ahman Green's FBG projections (1 Viewer)

GregR_2

GregR_2

Footballguy
I was wondering if we could get some discussion on Ahman Green's projection. Right now he's ranked 90th in the FBG scoring system.

Let me start out up front and say, I understand his injury history and his situation as it stands today. I understand this year is starting the same as last year where he had an injury and it lingered and lingered and we kept hearing it was week by week and it seemed like he was always on the verge of coming back. I'm a Texans fan, I know it all in painful detail, and I know the similarity with this year's situation.

So now I'm saying, I've already taken that into account. He's obviously not an early pick nor a guy you should count on to anchor your season.

But after you do take all of that into account, I don't see how he can end up the 90th ranked RBs by FBGs. His potential alone is much more than that. If he does become healthy he is the starter on a team that prefers to run the ball. The most recent article from the FBG blogger 2 days ago has Kubiak indicating that without Green it will be a RBBC between the remaining guys, but implies if Green is healthy that won't be the case. That possibility alone makes him a lot more valuable than Jalen Parmele, Jesse Chatman, or Mike Sellers. Even if we suppose that Slaton wins the starting job, the only way Ahman doesn't vastly outperform his ranking is if he's injured the entire season, because he'd still be #2 and get touches.

Given the scarcity of RBs in the NFL, Ahman Green has got to be more worth a flier than probably half, definitely 1/3, of the RBs in front of him in the FBG rankings. MT put it very well in another thread when he said, "It's true that Ahman Green "just isn't very good," but he's probably the Texans' best RB."

There are 15 members of FBG's staff who have submitted rankings in the last 7 days. 8 didn't put him in their top 50, 7 did and ranked him 30th, 33, 36, 37, 45, 48, 50. I don't expect everyone's rankings to agree, but when half of staff has him rated 40 to 60 spots higher than the projections have him rated, maybe this is a sign the projection for him needs to be looked at with a critical eye.

At the very least he should show up where his potential value warrants after taking into account the injury situation.

 
The 5 staffers who do offensive projections have all downgraded his prospects recently, but we are pretty divided as to HOW MUCH he should be devalued:

Code: 
RSH	YD	Y/R	TD	REC	YD	Y/R	TD	FPTDavid Dodds	35	135	3.9	1	3	22	7.3	0	22Chris Smith	20	70	3.5	0	2	12	6.0	0	8Bob Henry	60	234	3.9	1	9	65	7.2	0	36Jason Wood	155	585	3.8	3	20	125	6.2	0	89Maurile Tremblay	149	650	4.4	4	21	154	7.3	1	110
 
BigSteelThrill said:
Maybe a few think he will be flatly released and not have any stats... thus driving down his overall ranking.
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Without even critiquing whether that is a reasonable belief to have... even when you take that possibility into account, are Mike Sellers and Jesse Chatman more valuable picks than Green overall? I don't see anything that can justify his position after everything about his situation, including possibility of release, is taken into account. Not even close.
 
I'm reviewing now where I had him as I was pretty high on him this summer - but the injury has me concerned.

I will likely move him down some on my rankings (I think I'm the highest on him now) but I really don't know what to make of the HOU run game at this point. It's as big a mess as I've ever seen for a ground game.

 
I think Jason's projections might be the most realistic above, though probably a tad optimistic. I'd expect 300-400 yards and a few TDs, pretty much borderline unrosterable in most leagues except as an emergency bye week filler.

The guy is an aging RB, had knee problems last year, is having knee problems in preseason. Is in an openly stated RBBC run by a Shanny disciple and there is a good-looking rookie on the roster.

What's to like here?

 
GregR said:
BigSteelThrill said:
Maybe a few think he will be flatly released and not have any stats... thus driving down his overall ranking.
Click to expand...
Without even critiquing whether that is a reasonable belief to have... even when you take that possibility into account, are Mike Sellers and Jesse Chatman more valuable picks than Green overall? I don't see anything that can justify his position after everything about his situation, including possibility of release, is taken into account. Not even close.
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I know on my list there are certainly unknown players I'd rather have.Take many of the youngsters... like Justin Forsett. Jason Snelling. Michael Bush.In the case of Mike Sellers (who I wouldnt touch), maybe his value comes from year-end/overall perspective of a PPR type league. Last year Sellers had 3 TDs and 17 catches. Now look at the AGreen projections and both Dodds and Smith have Green much lower then that... and Ladell Betts happens to be hurt in Washington.Again you have a couple staffers diving down his value overall, not too unexpected.
 
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I grabbed Slaton and Brown as flyers since I assume Green will be hurt or released. Houston RB is a chance to catch lightning in a bottle, but it probably takes more roster space than it is worth.

 
tombonneau said:
I think Jason's projections might be the most realistic above, though probably a tad optimistic. I'd expect 300-400 yards and a few TDs, pretty much borderline unrosterable in most leagues except as an emergency bye week filler.
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I agree that I think a good number is somewhere between Wood and Bob Henry.I'd say any league that generally carries 6 RBs on their rosters should definitely have him drafted, and leagues with 5 RBs he should be very strongly considered. (Edit to add: I'm thinking 12 team leagues when I say this.) I don't tend to play in leagues with tiny rosters, so every league I play in he should probably be rostered.

The guy is an aging RB, had knee problems last year, is having knee problems in preseason. Is in an openly stated RBBC run by a Shanny disciple and there is a good-looking rookie on the roster.

What's to like here?
Click to expand...
He hasn't had knee problems this preseason, it's a groin injury. And as mentioned, Kubiak's talk about a RBBC is if Green isn't ready to go. I won't take him just at that face value, Green will share the load with at least 1 other back. But so far there isn't reason to believe Green isn't the primary guy if he's able to play.
 
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Gregr...I am usually in line with many of your posts..I guess it seems in this situation you are having more of a problem with the projections the staffers have than Green's value/draftability etc....I think one reason that this is even a discussion is because nobody really knows what is going on, and when we don't know what is going on, we often shy away from that situation and I think that is what you are seeing in the projections....the safe play is to say that he will do almost nothing....I think some (including coaches) want to keep giving Green the benefit of the doubt....but he is not the same back that ripped off a 99 yard TD run against the Broncos in the last game of the season anymore (sorry I loved that play it scored me 15 points by itself and helped me win a championship)...he just hasn't been the same....there is really no reason to think he will be productive when there are healthier and younger bodies on the roster who at this point seem as though they can do anything Green can do and more.....I think the team may be hanging on out of courtesy/respect more then anything else...

Green will go in most drafts, but I bet it will be more to the non-sharky drafters (drafting on name) then to anybody else, because almost any spot you could draft Green at this point, there will be somebody else who most sharky drafters would rather take a chance on and think have more upside....

he is one of the guys who if you pass on and he has a nice year you go "oh well, he surprised me", but if you draft him and it remains how it has been, you end up wishing you would have taken a chance on that Colston guy instead....

 
tombonneau said:
I think Jason's projections might be the most realistic above, though probably a tad optimistic. I'd expect 300-400 yards and a few TDs, pretty much borderline unrosterable in most leagues except as an emergency bye week filler.

The guy is an aging RB, had knee problems last year, is having knee problems in preseason. Is in an openly stated RBBC run by a Shanny disciple and there is a good-looking rookie on the roster.

What's to like here?
Click to expand...
 
GregR said:
tombonneau said:
I think Jason's projections might be the most realistic above, though probably a tad optimistic. I'd expect 300-400 yards and a few TDs, pretty much borderline unrosterable in most leagues except as an emergency bye week filler.
Click to expand...
I agree that I think a good number is somewhere between Wood and Bob Henry.I'd say any league that generally carries 6 RBs on their rosters should definitely have him drafted, and leagues with 5 RBs he should be very strongly considered. (Edit to add: I'm thinking 12 team leagues when I say this.) I don't tend to play in leagues with tiny rosters, so every league I play in he should probably be rostered.

The guy is an aging RB, had knee problems last year, is having knee problems in preseason. Is in an openly stated RBBC run by a Shanny disciple and there is a good-looking rookie on the roster.

What's to like here?
Click to expand...
He hasn't had knee problems this preseason, it's a groin injury. And as mentioned, Kubiak's talk about a RBBC is if Green isn't ready to go. I won't take him just at that face value, Green will share the load with at least 1 other back. But so far there isn't reason to believe Green isn't the primary guy if he's able to play.
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My bad on the groin injury. So he now has two different types of recent injuries. Much better. :mellow:
 
Stinkin Ref said:
Gregr...I am usually in line with many of your posts..I guess it seems in this situation you are having more of a problem with the projections the staffers have than Green's value/draftability etc....I think one reason that this is even a discussion is because nobody really knows what is going on, and when we don't know what is going on, we often shy away from that situation and I think that is what you are seeing in the projections....the safe play is to say that he will do almost nothing....I think some (including coaches) want to keep giving Green the benefit of the doubt....but he is not the same back that ripped off a 99 yard TD run against the Broncos in the last game of the season anymore (sorry I loved that play it scored me 15 points by itself and helped me win a championship)...he just hasn't been the same....there is really no reason to think he will be productive when there are healthier and younger bodies on the roster who at this point seem as though they can do anything Green can do and more.....I think the team may be hanging on out of courtesy/respect more then anything else...Green will go in most drafts, but I bet it will be more to the non-sharky drafters (drafting on name) then to anybody else, because almost any spot you could draft Green at this point, there will be somebody else who most sharky drafters would rather take a chance on and think have more upside....he is one of the guys who if you pass on and he has a nice year you go "oh well, he surprised me", but if you draft him and it remains how it has been, you end up wishing you would have taken a chance on that Colston guy instead....
Click to expand...
I guess I differ in thinking that we've seen anything that makes me think Green, if healthy, is necessarily unproductive. In fact I will say the opposite. In the camp sessions I saw, Slaton was the worst guy at running between the tackles and Green was the best. Slaton has been great when he can bounce it outside or when he has a big hole, but he was reminding me a lot of Reggie Bush when he didn't have such a hole... freezing up until he got tackled or just running into the back of his linemen instead of finding a seam he can fall forward through for another 2 yards.Do you think there has maybe been a bit of a rush to turn "Ahman Green is injured" to meaning "Ahman Green is a bad RB even if healthy?" I haven't seen anything to suggest the latter yet. We don't have much to go on at all as to how good of a RB he still is or isn't. But what little I've seen suggested he was still in the mix for the best RB on the Texans if not the best. So far that's what we've been hearing from the team too.I doubt I need to say this again for you, but since I'm sure someone else will misinterpret what I just said, I'm not claiming Ahman is a stud or even the surefire starter. But I'm saying he should have more value than where he's being projected at. Certainly enough he shouldn't be drafted behind 4th string RBs or fullbacks without something incredibly special about those guys.
 
Would you start Ahman week one? I wouldn't. I can't even envision a scenario where you put him in your starting lineup in week two, even if he blows up week one, short maybe of every single other RB on my team getting hurt.

Is there any possible way that you would start him on any given week if he actually ends up with 500 yards? That would be a horrendously bad season. For most people to even consider starting him, he'd have to have a couple big weeks, while the other guys on your bench did poorly. But if he'd already had two huge weeks, then A projection of 150 yards vs. 500 yards is irrelevant - the real questions are, is he healthy enough to start, will he get the workload if he starts, and will he stay healthy?

The numbers you guys are assigning to him are a workaround that you're using to fit your system of defining value for players. The problem is, if you really think he'll end up with the stats you project, then he's simply undraftable. If what you mean to say is, you think there's a 50/50 chance he gets a 1000 yards (or maybe a 25% chance he gets 2000 yards!) then a projection of 500 yards doesn't accurately represent the value you think he will provide to your team.

 
One thing to consider on Kubiak's RBBC comments is that he may just be talking about the upcoming preseason games. Brown, Taylor, Walker, Slaton and Shipp are all on the roster and the Texans won't be able to carry all those guys come September. They need to get all these players as many reps as possible to see who is worth keeping and who they are going to drop. Once we get to the regular season, it may be a whole different animal.

Last year the Texans didn't seem to imploy any kind of RBBC during the games, just on a somewhat week to week basis as guys got injured or proved ineffective.

 
The problem I have is that there is no way all these backs are on the team at the start of the season. Personally, I expect Ahman Green to be the one cut as he just can't stay healthy. I fully expected him to retire after last year's injury so probably over-reacted to another injury. I will probably bump him up to the 100 carry mark, but if I was betting, I would take the under.

 
Green, at this point, is just flatout unreliable. I would bet he gets cut. Houston's trying to build something down there, and I just don't see where Ahman offers any real value to them at this juncture. They'll cut bait and move on with what they have.

 
bostonfred said:
Would you start Ahman week one? I wouldn't. I can't even envision a scenario where you put him in your starting lineup in week two, even if he blows up week one, short maybe of every single other RB on my team getting hurt. Is there any possible way that you would start him on any given week if he actually ends up with 500 yards? That would be a horrendously bad season. For most people to even consider starting him, he'd have to have a couple big weeks, while the other guys on your bench did poorly. But if he'd already had two huge weeks, then A projection of 150 yards vs. 500 yards is irrelevant - the real questions are, is he healthy enough to start, will he get the workload if he starts, and will he stay healthy? The numbers you guys are assigning to him are a workaround that you're using to fit your system of defining value for players. The problem is, if you really think he'll end up with the stats you project, then he's simply undraftable. If what you mean to say is, you think there's a 50/50 chance he gets a 1000 yards (or maybe a 25% chance he gets 2000 yards!) then a projection of 500 yards doesn't accurately represent the value you think he will provide to your team.
Click to expand...
Right, the numbers we're talking about aren't necessarily exactly what he'll produce, but are a best expectation given his situation (injury, possible release if he doesn't heal). As in if you think there's a 10% chance he goes for 1200 yards, a 20% chance he goes for 800 yards, a 30% chance he goes for 400 yards, and a 40% chance he goes for 0 yards, then 400 yards (.1*1200 + .2 * 800 + .3 * 400 + .4 * 0) is an appropriate number to reflect your opinion on him. Or in the case of Dodds using carries and a YPC, it would be what are the odds he gets different amounts of carries. The point of this thread isn't that Green is better than the RBs being drafted as starters, so not really about "Would you start Ahman week 1". To stick with the analogy of that question though, the point would more be that the odds you start Ahman are a lot better than the odds you start a bunch of the RBs currently ranked ahead of him.
 
David Dodds said:
The problem I have is that there is no way all these backs are on the team at the start of the season. Personally, I expect Ahman Green to be the one cut as he just can't stay healthy. I fully expected him to retire after last year's injury so probably over-reacted to another injury. I will probably bump him up to the 100 carry mark, but if I was betting, I would take the under.
Click to expand...
Thanks for taking a look at it David. :goodposting:
 
bostonfred said:
Would you start Ahman week one? I wouldn't. I can't even envision a scenario where you put him in your starting lineup in week two, even if he blows up week one, short maybe of every single other RB on my team getting hurt. Is there any possible way that you would start him on any given week if he actually ends up with 500 yards? That would be a horrendously bad season. For most people to even consider starting him, he'd have to have a couple big weeks, while the other guys on your bench did poorly. But if he'd already had two huge weeks, then A projection of 150 yards vs. 500 yards is irrelevant - the real questions are, is he healthy enough to start, will he get the workload if he starts, and will he stay healthy? The numbers you guys are assigning to him are a workaround that you're using to fit your system of defining value for players. The problem is, if you really think he'll end up with the stats you project, then he's simply undraftable. If what you mean to say is, you think there's a 50/50 chance he gets a 1000 yards (or maybe a 25% chance he gets 2000 yards!) then a projection of 500 yards doesn't accurately represent the value you think he will provide to your team.
Click to expand...
I had a somewhat similar conversation with a staffer (can't remember which) last year, only the subject then was Donovan McNabb. McNabb was showing a fairly modest total points projection (QB8 range IIRC), but that projection was over like 12 games, building in some injury risk. If you divided to get a ppg, and re-sorted the rankings on ppg, McNabb leapt near the top of the list, right next to Peyton Manning.So as it pertains to Ahman Green, 500 yards in 16 games makes him utterly worthless. But 500 yards in 5 games (with the other 11 missed due to injury), makes him a must-start in that stretch of games where he's healthy enough to play. I'd certainly use a late-round pick on a guy that'll produce well when he plays, but is highly unlikely to last the season ahead of some guy that's going to get 6 or 8 touches every week for 16 weeks, and end the year with the same total points.
 
They should really sign Alexander to a short term contract. He would be a good fit there, with Slaton being the 3rd down back and Brown backing him up.

Green, who I have on both my FF rosters, is liable to do nothing again. I just couldn't resist picking him after we got to round 8.

 
i think he might get released outright. Either way he's way injured. ie for slow and steady you have ship/brown. Slaton is the most (only) explosive back. If Anything I take him (my last draft is a keeper too) and then mabye lete flyer c brown, but then again mabye not.

 
I originally thought the same thing, but if he logs 1 NFL carry this regular season I'd be surprised.

Texans need to move on here. They'll live w/o him.

 
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