DeAngelo Williams v. Jonathan Stewart (1 Viewer)

I'm sure this is the source of multiple threads. Wanted to reboot it after watching the Panthers-Redskins game.

Both guys looked pretty damn good. And against a normally stiff Redskins Defense.

Where do people see this murky RBBC heading after having seen Stewart perform finally?

It will be a full RBBC. It's a good situation for the Panthers.

I think both backs are potentially starting caliber RBs in the NFL, so I'm not sure we'll see either one emerge as head and shoulders above the other this season. I initially thought Stewart would relegate DeAngelo to the third down role, but Williams is a pretty talented player in his own right and he's been lights out this preseason.

I think Stewart offers more FF upside because he brings something to the table that DeAngelo lacks (power). However, this is looking more and more like a true RBBC. As of right now I expect a distribution of touches similar to what we've seen from MJD/Taylor the past two years.

meanjoegreen said:

It will be a full RBBC. It's a good situation for the Panthers.

Click to expand...

maybe not.I already commented in the j-stew thread.

I think the biggest news at this point is how good the Panthers Oline has been. If that continues in the regular season both of these RB are going to be very valuable to their owners.

Long term I see Stewart winning the job because he is more what coach Fox wants from a RB. That is assuming the Oline is actually improved and they win enough games to save Fox's job. At this point that is looking possible.

And by long term I mean after this season. DeAngelo has played very well and is going to get a lot of action as long as he keeps it up.

my thoughts are pretty much the same as they were before the preseason started. this is going back and forth all season with injury being the only thing that allows one of them to truly stand out for fantasy owners.

i like deangelo for a great value guy in PPR leagues, so hopefully, j-stew's strong showing will help send deangelo's price back down a little.

in this situation, the guy i like the most is the guy i can get the cheapest. predicting exactly how this will play out feels pretty much impossible. both guys could be successful if they get the carries. i assume deangelo will get more receptions and j-stew will get more TDs, but i see the balance of carries fluctuating all year.

FWIW, I paid $15 for Stewart today in my auction, while DWill went to another owner for $12. We can keep up to 4 each year, hence Stewart's price might be a little inflated. Still, I think this is representative in how we'll see these two guys go, at least in auction formats.

In a 12-team PPR redraft today, I paid 7.5% of cap to get Stewart. Definitely overpaid a bit, but the reward might justify the risk.

D-Will went for 5% of cap to another owner.

Honestly as much as CAR has historically run the ball (hell even there passing is play action based) I think both might be easy starts every week, or at least guys you can play and feel good about (not saying start over studs etc).

Hipple said:

Honestly as much as CAR has historically run the ball (hell even there passing is play action based) I think both might be easy starts every week, or at least guys you can play and feel good about (not saying start over studs etc).

Click to expand...

Don't know why this myth still prevails year after year. Historically CAR has been a passing team.

BassNBrew said:

Hipple said:

Honestly as much as CAR has historically run the ball (hell even there passing is play action based) I think both might be easy starts every week, or at least guys you can play and feel good about (not saying start over studs etc).

Click to expand...

Don't know why this myth still prevails year after year. Historically CAR has been a passing team.

Click to expand...

The passing is based on the run though. It's not like they are playing dimes vs CAR.

Hipple said:

BassNBrew said:

Hipple said:

Honestly as much as CAR has historically run the ball (hell even there passing is play action based) I think both might be easy starts every week, or at least guys you can play and feel good about (not saying start over studs etc).

Click to expand...

Don't know why this myth still prevails year after year. Historically CAR has been a passing team.

Click to expand...

The passing is based on the run though. It's not like they are playing dimes vs CAR.

Click to expand...

Total rushes over last 5 years.seems run heavy to me? Even though their RBBC lately has been pretty meager since stephen davis (and he was old when he got there)

YRs TEAM RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT1 2002--2007 PIT 2704 10932 4.04 549 75 1907.102 2002--2007 DEN 2601 12171 4.68 619 89 2187.103 2002--2007 WAS 2544 10488 4.12 565 64 1924.454 2002--2007 SD 2530 11882 4.70 620 119 2439.855 2002--2007 KC 2521 11067 4.39 642 135 2446.606 2002--2007 JAX 2517 11297 4.49 542 81 2028.307 2002--2007 SEA 2510 10836 4.32 617 92 1993.208 2002--2007 DAL 2504 9998 3.99 519 70 1785.659 2002--2007 CAR 2493 9724 3.90 493 55 1738.5010 2002--2007 NYG 2481 11380 4.59 602 81 2062.4011 2002--2007 BAL 2460 10378 4.22 489 59 1739.8012 2002--2007 NE 2453 9866 4.02 552 80 1961.7013 2002--2007 IND 2440 9855 4.04 602 82 1863.3014 2002--2007 TEN 2393 9241 3.86 440 57 1610.9015 2002--2007 GB 2382 10456 4.39 515 71 2099.8016 2002--2007 CIN 2374 9761 4.11 520 69 1742.8017 2002--2007 CHI 2367 9130 3.86 460 59 1594.5018 2002--2007 NYJ 2332 9229 3.96 454 57 1677.2019 2002--2007 BUF 2329 9183 3.94 483 61 1595.9020 2002--2007 ATL 2327 10077 4.33 481 70 1841.8021 2002--2007 SF 2280 9909 4.35 478 56 1765.4022 2002--2007 MIA 2270 9391 4.14 480 64 1713.2023 2002--2007 TB 2266 9045 3.99 449 52 1764.5024 2002--2007 HOU 2223 8390 3.77 425 61 1605.8525 2002--2007 NO 2215 9129 4.12 460 70 1800.4026 2002--2007 MIN 2164 10121 4.68 488 70 1992.8527 2002--2007 CLE 2163 8402 3.88 429 37 1389.9028 2002--2007 OAK 2163 8885 4.11 499 65 1763.9029 2002--2007 ARI 2138 7638 3.57 379 43 1450.2530 2002--2007 STL 2129 8784 4.13 463 60 1755.9031 2002--2007 PHI 2056 9208 4.48 472 61 2092.4032 2002--2007 DET 1913 7525 3.93 368 46 1551.40

Click to expand...

Hipple said:

Hipple said:

BassNBrew said:

Hipple said:

Honestly as much as CAR has historically run the ball (hell even there passing is play action based) I think both might be easy starts every week, or at least guys you can play and feel good about (not saying start over studs etc).

Click to expand...

Don't know why this myth still prevails year after year. Historically CAR has been a passing team.

Click to expand...

The passing is based on the run though. It's not like they are playing dimes vs CAR.

Click to expand...

Total rushes over last 5 years.seems run heavy to me? Even though their RBBC lately has been pretty meager since stephen davis (and he was old when he got there)

YRs TEAM RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT1 2002--2007 PIT 2704 10932 4.04 549 75 1907.102 2002--2007 DEN 2601 12171 4.68 619 89 2187.103 2002--2007 WAS 2544 10488 4.12 565 64 1924.454 2002--2007 SD 2530 11882 4.70 620 119 2439.855 2002--2007 KC 2521 11067 4.39 642 135 2446.606 2002--2007 JAX 2517 11297 4.49 542 81 2028.307 2002--2007 SEA 2510 10836 4.32 617 92 1993.208 2002--2007 DAL 2504 9998 3.99 519 70 1785.659 2002--2007 CAR 2493 9724 3.90 493 55 1738.5010 2002--2007 NYG 2481 11380 4.59 602 81 2062.4011 2002--2007 BAL 2460 10378 4.22 489 59 1739.8012 2002--2007 NE 2453 9866 4.02 552 80 1961.7013 2002--2007 IND 2440 9855 4.04 602 82 1863.3014 2002--2007 TEN 2393 9241 3.86 440 57 1610.9015 2002--2007 GB 2382 10456 4.39 515 71 2099.8016 2002--2007 CIN 2374 9761 4.11 520 69 1742.8017 2002--2007 CHI 2367 9130 3.86 460 59 1594.5018 2002--2007 NYJ 2332 9229 3.96 454 57 1677.2019 2002--2007 BUF 2329 9183 3.94 483 61 1595.9020 2002--2007 ATL 2327 10077 4.33 481 70 1841.8021 2002--2007 SF 2280 9909 4.35 478 56 1765.4022 2002--2007 MIA 2270 9391 4.14 480 64 1713.2023 2002--2007 TB 2266 9045 3.99 449 52 1764.5024 2002--2007 HOU 2223 8390 3.77 425 61 1605.8525 2002--2007 NO 2215 9129 4.12 460 70 1800.4026 2002--2007 MIN 2164 10121 4.68 488 70 1992.8527 2002--2007 CLE 2163 8402 3.88 429 37 1389.9028 2002--2007 OAK 2163 8885 4.11 499 65 1763.9029 2002--2007 ARI 2138 7638 3.57 379 43 1450.2530 2002--2007 STL 2129 8784 4.13 463 60 1755.9031 2002--2007 PHI 2056 9208 4.48 472 61 2092.4032 2002--2007 DET 1913 7525 3.93 368 46 1551.40

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

lol at Detroit DEAD LAST

Hipple said:

BassNBrew said:

Hipple said:

Honestly as much as CAR has historically run the ball (hell even there passing is play action based) I think both might be easy starts every week, or at least guys you can play and feel good about (not saying start over studs etc).

Click to expand...

Don't know why this myth still prevails year after year. Historically CAR has been a passing team.

Click to expand...

The passing is based on the run though. It's not like they are playing dimes vs CAR.

Click to expand...

They haven't been a heavy play action team recently. They did run the ball a lot in 07, not so much in 06.

During Fox's tenure, Carolina had:

404 RB rushing attempts in 2007 - 10th in NFL

389 RB rushing attempts in 2006 - 21st in NFL

449 RB rushing attempts in 2005 - 8th in NFL

392 RB rushing attempts in 2004 - 19th in NFL

465 RB rushing attempts in 2003 - 4th in NFL

394 RB rushing attempts in 2002 - 10th in NFL

90 RB targets in 2007 - 23rd in NFL

127 RB targets in 2006 - 8th in NFL

103 RB targets in 2005 - 13th in NFL

106 RB targets in 2004 - 15th in NFL

89 RB targets in 2003 - 27th in NFL

116 RB targets in 2002 - 20th in NFL

Assuming their running game is at least a bit improved due to improved OL and the upgrade from Foster to Stewart, plus a better passing game, perhaps we can expect 420 RB rushing attempts or so. More is possible, but I wouldn't count on it, since 4 of 6 seasons under Fox there have been 404 or fewer. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 97% of the RB rushing attempts.

I think with Delhomme back and improved WRs, they should throw to the RBs more than last year, but not as often as in 2006. I think 100 targets is reasonable. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 81% of the RB targets.

So... it seems reasonable to think Williams and Stewart will split around 410 carries and 80 targets. I could see it like this:

Williams 220 carries and 60 targets

Stewart 190 carries and 20 targets

An important question is who will get red zone and goal line opportunities. I suspect those will also be split, at least early, and only focused on one player if one of them outperforms the other in the early going.

I think Williams is good value at his ADP.

BassNBrew said:

Hipple said:

Honestly as much as CAR has historically run the ball (hell even there passing is play action based) I think both might be easy starts every week, or at least guys you can play and feel good about (not saying start over studs etc).

Click to expand...

Don't know why this myth still prevails year after year. Historically CAR has been a passing team.

Click to expand...

Under Fox, they have been in the top 10 in the NFL in RB rushing attempts 4 times in 6 seasons, and they have never been worse than 21st.

StL Is 30th better drop SJax in all leagues

Yards per attempt

YRs TEAM RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT

1 2002--2007 ATL 2915 13946 4.78 709 92 5657.95

2 2002--2007 MIN 2631 12528 4.76 661 93 6503.00

3 2002--2007 DEN 2962 13882 4.69 738 101 6458.55

4 2002--2007 SD 2862 13145 4.59 724 132 6614.15

5 2002--2007 PHI 2464 11246 4.56 617 84 6746.15

6 2002--2007 JAX 2901 12912 4.45 672 99 6069.75

7 2002--2007 NYG 2670 11863 4.44 643 84 5992.10

8 2002--2007 KC 2799 12285 4.39 708 137 6875.15

9 2002--2007 SF 2600 11336 4.36 582 71 5306.90

10 2002--2007 SEA 2766 11889 4.30 689 97 6767.40

11 2002--2007 GB 2575 10971 4.26 558 72 6796.80

12 2002--2007 MIA 2564 10612 4.14 589 80 5480.85

13 2002--2007 BAL 2817 11582 4.11 585 65 5236.10

14 2002--2007 WAS 2819 11587 4.11 641 67 5805.15

15 2002--2007 OAK 2406 9863 4.10 555 73 5615.40

16 2002--2007 NO 2521 10264 4.07 557 83 6560.55

17 2002--2007 PIT 3082 12459 4.04 661 87 6346.95

18 2002--2007 STL 2318 9368 4.04 518 72 6489.80

19 2002--2007 CIN 2640 10654 4.04 582 77 6514.35

20 2002--2007 TEN 2796 11245 4.02 574 79 5956.95

21 2002--2007 DAL 2771 11032 3.98 593 80 6187.95

22 2002--2007 DET 2160 8509 3.94 423 53 5250.85

23 2002--2007 NYJ 2635 10358 3.93 562 66 5493.30

24 2002--2007 CLE 2427 9538 3.93 518 48 5442.80

25 2002--2007 TB 2527 9923 3.93 515 54 5681.45

26 2002--2007 BUF 2565 10059 3.92 563 68 5288.15

27 2002--2007 IND 2636 10217 3.88 641 91 7657.05

28 2002--2007 HOU 2574 9923 3.86 542 70 5086.50

29 2002--2007 NE 2761 10550 3.82 658 86 7089.75

30 2002--2007 CAR 2729 10405 3.81 553 61 5640.05

31 2002--2007 CHI 2631 10018 3.81 540 63 4953.10

32 2002--2007 ARI 2439 8971 3.68 474 53 5666.25

TDS

YRs TEAM RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT

1 2002--2007 KC 2799 12285 4.39 708 137 6875.15

2 2002--2007 SD 2862 13145 4.59 724 132 6614.15

3 2002--2007 DEN 2962 13882 4.69 738 101 6458.55

4 2002--2007 JAX 2901 12912 4.45 672 99 6069.75

5 2002--2007 SEA 2766 11889 4.30 689 97 6767.40

6 2002--2007 MIN 2631 12528 4.76 661 93 6503.00

7 2002--2007 ATL 2915 13946 4.78 709 92 5657.95

8 2002--2007 IND 2636 10217 3.88 641 91 7657.05

9 2002--2007 PIT 3082 12459 4.04 661 87 6346.95

10 2002--2007 NE 2761 10550 3.82 658 86 7089.75

11 2002--2007 PHI 2464 11246 4.56 617 84 6746.15

12 2002--2007 NYG 2670 11863 4.44 643 84 5992.10

13 2002--2007 NO 2521 10264 4.07 557 83 6560.55

14 2002--2007 DAL 2771 11032 3.98 593 80 6187.95

15 2002--2007 MIA 2564 10612 4.14 589 80 5480.85

16 2002--2007 TEN 2796 11245 4.02 574 79 5956.95

17 2002--2007 CIN 2640 10654 4.04 582 77 6514.35

18 2002--2007 OAK 2406 9863 4.10 555 73 5615.40

19 2002--2007 GB 2575 10971 4.26 558 72 6796.80

20 2002--2007 STL 2318 9368 4.04 518 72 6489.80

21 2002--2007 SF 2600 11336 4.36 582 71 5306.90

22 2002--2007 HOU 2574 9923 3.86 542 70 5086.50

23 2002--2007 BUF 2565 10059 3.92 563 68 5288.15

24 2002--2007 WAS 2819 11587 4.11 641 67 5805.15

25 2002--2007 NYJ 2635 10358 3.93 562 66 5493.30

26 2002--2007 BAL 2817 11582 4.11 585 65 5236.10

27 2002--2007 CHI 2631 10018 3.81 540 63 4953.10

28 2002--2007 CAR 2729 10405 3.81 553 61 5640.05

29 2002--2007 TB 2527 9923 3.93 515 54 5681.45

30 2002--2007 ARI 2439 8971 3.68 474 53 5666.25

31 2002--2007 DET 2160 8509 3.94 423 53 5250.85

32 2002--2007 CLE 2427 9538 3.93 518 48 5442.80

Just Win Baby said:

BassNBrew said:

Hipple said:

Honestly as much as CAR has historically run the ball (hell even there passing is play action based) I think both might be easy starts every week, or at least guys you can play and feel good about (not saying start over studs etc).

Click to expand...

Don't know why this myth still prevails year after year. Historically CAR has been a passing team.

Click to expand...

Under Fox, they have been in the top 10 in the NFL in RB rushing attempts 4 times in 6 seasons, and they have never been worse than 21st.

Click to expand...

I was looking at production moreso than attempts. NE and Indy are in the same neighborhood on the attempts and I really don't consider them running teams in the sense I would consider SD, KC, and PIT over that timeframe.

Rush attempts on 1st down.

YRs TEAM RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT

1 2002--2007 PIT 1612 6399 3.97 179 36 2592.60

2 2002--2007 DEN 1580 7415 4.69 213 49 2743.45

3 2002--2007 SD 1566 7322 4.68 232 54 2512.85

4 2002--2007 JAX 1516 6868 4.53 208 47 2346.90

5 2002--2007 ATL 1499 6963 4.65 203 45 2335.30

6 2002--2007 BAL 1496 6162 4.12 175 35 2004.00

7 2002--2007 KC 1494 6513 4.36 207 57 2988.45

8 2002--2007 WAS 1487 6187 4.16 170 28 2365.25

9 2002--2007 IND 1471 5723 3.89 164 36 3219.10

10 2002--2007 TEN 1464 5645 3.86 158 34 2426.70

11 2002--2007 NYG 1442 6791 4.71 201 39 2577.30

12 2002--2007 SEA 1442 5778 4.01 190 49 3185.95

13 2002--2007 DAL 1429 5325 3.73 153 27 2425.40

14 2002--2007 GB 1408 6166 4.38 177 37 2774.65

15 2002--2007 NYJ 1400 5427 3.88 153 26 2254.00

16 2002--2007 MIA 1397 5732 4.10 168 39 2283.35

17 2002--2007 CIN 1396 5653 4.05 160 34 2839.85

18 2002--2007 MIN 1393 6197 4.45 199 43 2612.40

19 2002--2007 NE 1383 5399 3.90 150 36 2926.80

20 2002--2007 TB 1377 5508 4.00 128 19 2138.35

21 2002--2007 CHI 1363 5066 3.72 142 30 1962.00

22 2002--2007 CAR 1346 5112 3.80 149 31 2393.40

23 2002--2007 ARI 1344 4630 3.44 113 25 2048.70

24 2002--2007 BUF 1327 5247 3.95 150 32 2154.45

25 2002--2007 NO 1305 5425 4.16 163 38 2682.45

26 2002--2007 SF 1296 5584 4.31 159 28 2124.35

27 2002--2007 HOU 1291 4616 3.58 113 24 1881.10

28 2002--2007 CLE 1274 5151 4.04 152 26 2349.25

29 2002--2007 STL 1256 5124 4.08 156 30 2631.70

30 2002--2007 OAK 1242 5029 4.05 129 30 2294.75

31 2002--2007 PHI 1232 5412 4.39 169 43 2947.90

32 2002--2007 DET 1127 4476 3.97 128 27 2232.60

Of course we virtually dominate the league in rushes on 3rd down with 5 or more yards to go....

YRs TEAM RSH RSHYD YD/RSH FD RSHTD FANT PT

1 2002--2007 ATL 179 1166 6.51 54 4 897.60

2 2002--2007 SEA 161 890 5.53 39 3 990.85

3 2002--2007 TEN 154 997 6.47 40 6 944.95

4 2002--2007 CAR 152 840 5.53 35 5 976.75

5 2002--2007 NE 150 727 4.85 31 1 1134.10

6 2002--2007 HOU 148 881 5.95 38 0 766.00

7 2002--2007 BAL 146 824 5.64 37 4 987.95

8 2002--2007 SF 143 823 5.76 33 2 1015.75

9 2002--2007 DAL 140 759 5.42 30 4 1019.50

10 2002--2007 SD 138 555 4.02 22 2 955.10

11 2002--2007 PHI 135 722 5.35 26 2 976.20

12 2002--2007 JAX 135 906 6.71 43 3 1242.30

13 2002--2007 PIT 135 678 5.02 28 4 1012.30

14 2002--2007 DEN 134 799 5.96 38 2 860.20

15 2002--2007 TB 128 663 5.18 28 1 814.15

16 2002--2007 NYJ 128 642 5.02 34 4 907.35

17 2002--2007 MIN 126 696 5.52 32 2 1065.80

18 2002--2007 WAS 121 739 6.11 32 1 908.40

19 2002--2007 NO 119 523 4.39 23 2 1196.15

20 2002--2007 CHI 115 664 5.77 26 0 843.05

21 2002--2007 BUF 115 588 5.11 30 4 872.25

22 2002--2007 KC 114 625 5.48 29 5 987.80

23 2002--2007 MIA 106 547 5.16 26 2 845.75

24 2002--2007 OAK 106 631 5.95 23 5 945.35

25 2002--2007 GB 101 478 4.73 20 1 1145.70

26 2002--2007 ARI 98 633 6.46 28 3 994.55

27 2002--2007 DET 97 608 6.27 21 2 796.25

28 2002--2007 NYG 85 447 5.26 23 0 840.15

29 2002--2007 STL 82 431 5.26 12 0 1116.90

30 2002--2007 IND 80 292 3.65 19 5 993.00

31 2002--2007 CIN 76 365 4.80 17 0 941.15

32 2002--2007 CLE 72 306 4.25 10 0 880.50

I took both of them over the weekend, one after the other and plan to start both of them unless there is one clear favorite. We have to start 3 RBs so I plan to start both of them alongside Frank Gore as I went WR-QB-WR after Gore. My hope is that they produce like Taylor/MJD minus injuries.

Just Win Baby said:

During Fox's tenure, Carolina had:

404 RB rushing attempts in 2007 - 10th in NFL

389 RB rushing attempts in 2006 - 21st in NFL

449 RB rushing attempts in 2005 - 8th in NFL

392 RB rushing attempts in 2004 - 19th in NFL

465 RB rushing attempts in 2003 - 4th in NFL

394 RB rushing attempts in 2002 - 10th in NFL

90 RB targets in 2007 - 23rd in NFL

127 RB targets in 2006 - 8th in NFL

103 RB targets in 2005 - 13th in NFL

106 RB targets in 2004 - 15th in NFL

89 RB targets in 2003 - 27th in NFL

116 RB targets in 2002 - 20th in NFL

Assuming their running game is at least a bit improved due to improved OL and the upgrade from Foster to Stewart, plus a better passing game, perhaps we can expect 420 RB rushing attempts or so. More is possible, but I wouldn't count on it, since 4 of 6 seasons under Fox there have been 404 or fewer. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 97% of the RB rushing attempts.

I think with Delhomme back and improved WRs, they should throw to the RBs more than last year, but not as often as in 2006. I think 100 targets is reasonable. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 81% of the RB targets.

So... it seems reasonable to think Williams and Stewart will split around 410 carries and 80 targets. I could see it like this:

Williams 220 carries and 60 targets

Stewart 190 carries and 20 targets

An important question is who will get red zone and goal line opportunities. I suspect those will also be split, at least early, and only focused on one player if one of them outperforms the other in the early going.

I think Williams is good value at his ADP.

Click to expand...

I agree with everything except for the bolded part.J-Stew has the size and power advantage and in the last preseason game, Stewart spelled Williams on one of his series on a 4th and short. If its goalline, I suspect Stewart is the guy.

Otherwise I see 50/50 carries and 70/30 receptions in favor of Williams. PPR, they'll be right about the same. Non-ppr, I think Stewart is the man due to increased TD opportunities. Return yardage and Stewart is the man as he will get kickoffs (ala MJD).

Opinions on these players seem to be all over the map. I typically avoid RBBC messes but, prior to this weekend, I was hoping to grab one [whichever was going earlier according to ADP] and then serpentine 6 picks back to the other. I realize it could lead to a mess, yet I think an injury at any point in the season would greatly reward this as a 6th-7th round RB strategy. However, that strategy is looking very, very dicey based on the "recent drafts" thread. I see Stewart going anywhere from 3rd round to completely undrafted. I see Deangelo going anywhere from 4th to 11th round. I realize many of those are 10 team drafts, but the range seems to make ADP impossible to use; i.e. the ADPs will probably reveal 7th-8th round ADP on both players, but it may take a 4th-5th maneuver to get both based on the frequency one or the other is going early. Further, half the drafts have Deangelo going 1st and half have Stewart going first, which is of no help to my plan. Just got an email from my bro and he got Stewart in the 10th round on his redraft league. Seems now like this strategy, while still having some upside, would doom me to reaching for both guys.

Jayrod said:

Just Win Baby said:

During Fox's tenure, Carolina had:

404 RB rushing attempts in 2007 - 10th in NFL

389 RB rushing attempts in 2006 - 21st in NFL

449 RB rushing attempts in 2005 - 8th in NFL

392 RB rushing attempts in 2004 - 19th in NFL

465 RB rushing attempts in 2003 - 4th in NFL

394 RB rushing attempts in 2002 - 10th in NFL

90 RB targets in 2007 - 23rd in NFL

127 RB targets in 2006 - 8th in NFL

103 RB targets in 2005 - 13th in NFL

106 RB targets in 2004 - 15th in NFL

89 RB targets in 2003 - 27th in NFL

116 RB targets in 2002 - 20th in NFL

Assuming their running game is at least a bit improved due to improved OL and the upgrade from Foster to Stewart, plus a better passing game, perhaps we can expect 420 RB rushing attempts or so. More is possible, but I wouldn't count on it, since 4 of 6 seasons under Fox there have been 404 or fewer. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 97% of the RB rushing attempts.

I think with Delhomme back and improved WRs, they should throw to the RBs more than last year, but not as often as in 2006. I think 100 targets is reasonable. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 81% of the RB targets.

So... it seems reasonable to think Williams and Stewart will split around 410 carries and 80 targets. I could see it like this:

Williams 220 carries and 60 targets

Stewart 190 carries and 20 targets

An important question is who will get red zone and goal line opportunities. I suspect those will also be split, at least early, and only focused on one player if one of them outperforms the other in the early going.

I think Williams is good value at his ADP.

Click to expand...

I agree with everything except for the bolded part.J-Stew has the size and power advantage and in the last preseason game, Stewart spelled Williams on one of his series on a 4th and short. If its goalline, I suspect Stewart is the guy.

Otherwise I see 50/50 carries and 70/30 receptions in favor of Williams. PPR, they'll be right about the same. Non-ppr, I think Stewart is the man due to increased TD opportunities. Return yardage and Stewart is the man as he will get kickoffs (ala MJD).

Click to expand...

Is he really going to return kicks?

Yenrub said:

Jayrod said:

Just Win Baby said:

During Fox's tenure, Carolina had:

404 RB rushing attempts in 2007 - 10th in NFL

389 RB rushing attempts in 2006 - 21st in NFL

449 RB rushing attempts in 2005 - 8th in NFL

392 RB rushing attempts in 2004 - 19th in NFL

465 RB rushing attempts in 2003 - 4th in NFL

394 RB rushing attempts in 2002 - 10th in NFL

90 RB targets in 2007 - 23rd in NFL

127 RB targets in 2006 - 8th in NFL

103 RB targets in 2005 - 13th in NFL

106 RB targets in 2004 - 15th in NFL

89 RB targets in 2003 - 27th in NFL

116 RB targets in 2002 - 20th in NFL

Assuming their running game is at least a bit improved due to improved OL and the upgrade from Foster to Stewart, plus a better passing game, perhaps we can expect 420 RB rushing attempts or so. More is possible, but I wouldn't count on it, since 4 of 6 seasons under Fox there have been 404 or fewer. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 97% of the RB rushing attempts.

I think with Delhomme back and improved WRs, they should throw to the RBs more than last year, but not as often as in 2006. I think 100 targets is reasonable. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 81% of the RB targets.

So... it seems reasonable to think Williams and Stewart will split around 410 carries and 80 targets. I could see it like this:

Williams 220 carries and 60 targets

Stewart 190 carries and 20 targets

An important question is who will get red zone and goal line opportunities. I suspect those will also be split, at least early, and only focused on one player if one of them outperforms the other in the early going.

I think Williams is good value at his ADP.

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I agree with everything except for the bolded part.J-Stew has the size and power advantage and in the last preseason game, Stewart spelled Williams on one of his series on a 4th and short. If its goalline, I suspect Stewart is the guy.

Otherwise I see 50/50 carries and 70/30 receptions in favor of Williams. PPR, they'll be right about the same. Non-ppr, I think Stewart is the man due to increased TD opportunities. Return yardage and Stewart is the man as he will get kickoffs (ala MJD).

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Is he really going to return kicks?

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Interview with John Fox:

Question:Who will return kickoffs for the Panthers this season?

Answer: Jonathan Stewart was one of the leaders in the country as well as in the Pac-10. He's a guy that will start off with those duties when we go to camp. Not only is he an outstanding running back, but that was one of the key factors as well.

Question:Are you nervous about your potential feature running back returning kickoffs?

Answer: It's no different than when Steve Smith was as our punt returner. We'll just evaluate that as we go.

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LinkHowever, he won't take all of them and this article was from May 15

Hipple said:

lol at Detroit DEAD LAST

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THANKS MARTZ! GOOD RIDDANCE! (yes I realize he was there for only 2 years)

Jayrod said:

Just Win Baby said:

During Fox's tenure, Carolina had:

404 RB rushing attempts in 2007 - 10th in NFL

389 RB rushing attempts in 2006 - 21st in NFL

449 RB rushing attempts in 2005 - 8th in NFL

392 RB rushing attempts in 2004 - 19th in NFL

465 RB rushing attempts in 2003 - 4th in NFL

394 RB rushing attempts in 2002 - 10th in NFL

90 RB targets in 2007 - 23rd in NFL

127 RB targets in 2006 - 8th in NFL

103 RB targets in 2005 - 13th in NFL

106 RB targets in 2004 - 15th in NFL

89 RB targets in 2003 - 27th in NFL

116 RB targets in 2002 - 20th in NFL

Assuming their running game is at least a bit improved due to improved OL and the upgrade from Foster to Stewart, plus a better passing game, perhaps we can expect 420 RB rushing attempts or so. More is possible, but I wouldn't count on it, since 4 of 6 seasons under Fox there have been 404 or fewer. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 97% of the RB rushing attempts.

I think with Delhomme back and improved WRs, they should throw to the RBs more than last year, but not as often as in 2006. I think 100 targets is reasonable. Last year, Foster and Williams combined for 81% of the RB targets.

So... it seems reasonable to think Williams and Stewart will split around 410 carries and 80 targets. I could see it like this:

Williams 220 carries and 60 targets

Stewart 190 carries and 20 targets

An important question is who will get red zone and goal line opportunities. I suspect those will also be split, at least early, and only focused on one player if one of them outperforms the other in the early going.

I think Williams is good value at his ADP.

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I agree with everything except for the bolded part.J-Stew has the size and power advantage and in the last preseason game, Stewart spelled Williams on one of his series on a 4th and short. If its goalline, I suspect Stewart is the guy.

Otherwise I see 50/50 carries and 70/30 receptions in favor of Williams. PPR, they'll be right about the same. Non-ppr, I think Stewart is the man due to increased TD opportunities. Return yardage and Stewart is the man as he will get kickoffs (ala MJD).

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While I tend to agree with the notion of Stewart having more power, he is 18 pounds heavier than Williams, so logic would suggest that Stewart will get the short yardage work. However citing that Stewart got the carry on 4th and 1 is no proof of this. The run where Williams broke free, bobbled the ball after defender hit it and Steve Smith scooped it up to score, that play was on on 3rd and 1. So Williams was getting short yardage work as well. Now as the season wears on we may see more clearly defined roles for the 2 RB and Stewart may indeed get the short yardage role. However for now it looks more like they will alternate series and the RB who is in will stay in under all situations as a way of maintaining continuity or letting the RB get into a rhythm. Alternating series also has the benifit of letting each RB get more rest and being fresher when thier turn comes.

Both RB are capable recievers so the only issue that would cause one to get 3rd and long work over the other would be their pass blocking. For now that looks like Williams but I would not assume that Stewart won't be used in this situation.

So going all the way back to the spotlight thread prediction I am still seeing the same situation here with both RB sharing pretty evenly. Williams getting more work early on in the season and Stewart getting more later in the season. Stewart really redeemed himself in the last Pre-season game because it appeared he was falling behind a lot up until that point.

As allready pointed out the Panthers have been above average in rushing attempts even though they have been poor in execution. With the way the Oline appears to be playing right now that execution has improved. The talent of the 2 RB is also improved from what the Panthers have had before. So I think it is reasonable to expect the number of carries to be high once again. Notice also that the years where the Panthers rushing attempts were lower it was due to injuries to their RBs as much as inefficiveness of the run. So I would have to go back and look at the numbers but 420 rushing attempts for the RB sounds about right for the median expectation of how much will be split between these 2 and as pointed out upthread Williams/Foster got 97% of the work last year so its reasonable to expect Williams/Stewart will not share carries with other RB unless there is an injury. So 210 carries is about the average expectation for each RB. I expect the split to be weighted more towards Williams in the early games and then Stewart getting more in the later games.

The Patriots have never had a receiver catch 10 TDs in the Bill Belichick era. Randy Moss is going to suck. Count on it.