Colts Offensive Line Woes, Impact on Manning, Addai, etc. Options

[Professor S]

Just thought I would post this as a head's up to all the owners out there of Colts offensive players, as I have not seen this discussed yet. The Colts offensive line is in relative shambles right now. Center Jeff Saturday has an undisclosed knee injury that will keep him out anywhere from two weeks to the entire year - the severity has not yet been determined. Starting left guard Ryan Lilja has not yet practiced after offseason knee surgery. Last year's starting right guard Jake Scott bolted for the Titans in free agency. Even the second round pick, center Mike Pollak, missed the last preseason game after a knee injury in practice.

Quoted from Indystar.com:

If Saturday, Lilja and Pollak are at least temporarily out of the mix, the line might consist of Tony Ugoh at left tackle, Charlie Johnson at left guard, Justice at center, Dan Federkeil at right guard and Ryan Diem at right tackle. Not exactly the optimal protective unit for when Manning does step back on the game field.

As a Colts fan, this scares me. As a fantasy football player, I would have to think that Colts offensive players deserve at least a slight downgrade. Just wanted those who own Colts and those planning for upcoming drafts to have this information available.

This post has been edited by Professor S: Aug 26 2008, 02:36 PM

[Ozymandias]

Just thought I would post this as a head's up to all the owners out there of Colts offensive players, as I have not seen this discussed yet. The Colts offensive line is in relative shambles right now. Center Jeff Saturday has an undisclosed knee injury that will keep him out anywhere from two weeks to the entire year - the severity has not yet been determined. Starting left guard Ryan Lilja has not yet practiced after offseason knee surgery. Last year's starting right guard Jake Scott bolted for the Titans in free agency. Even the second round pick, center Mike Pollak, missed the last preseason game after a knee injury in practice.

Quoted from Indystar.com:

If Saturday, Lilja and Pollak are at least temporarily out of the mix, the line might consist of Tony Ugoh at left tackle, Charlie Johnson at left guard, Justice at center, Dan Federkeil at right guard and Ryan Diem at right tackle. Not exactly the optimal protective unit for when Manning does step back on the game field.

As a Colts fan, this scares me. As a fantasy football player, I would have to think that Colts offensive players deserve at least a slight downgrade. Just wanted those who own Colts and those planning for upcoming drafts to have this information available.

Good point. The O-line has been a strong point for the Colts for years, and it might no longer be that.

[Professor S]

I agree . . . at least until Saturday and Lilja are back (if they are able to return).

As far as the fantasy ramifications go, here is how I see it:
I think Addai's vaule remains about the same, at least early in the season. With Manning returning from injury, I think they rely more heavily on the run to protect Peyton. Rushing attempts will go up, but YPC goes down. I think Rhodes may eat into a few more of those carries to help keep Addai fresh. Maybe a 65/35 split.

Manning, and by extension Wayne, Harrison, Clark, and Gonzales, get downgraded. Until they can establish decent pass protection, this isn't going to be the Colts of 2004 winging it all over the field. They will try to protect Manning's knee as much as possible.

If all offensive linemen return without limitations, this becomes a moot point.

All of this is assuming Manning will be ready to go. If not, and Sorgi is the starter, say goodbye to offensive production from any Colts starter.

[ajopiela]

From what i have witnessed/heard Saturday is more of a "passing" center. That explains his great friendship with Peyton Manning. I would think it would hurt the passing game more than the run imo.

[joffer]

i'm surprised there's no word on Saturday's MRI yet

[raor]

i'm surprised there's no word on Saturday's MRI yet

"I wish the same could be said for other guys. The Colts aren't certain about center Jeff Saturday, but it sounds like he's going to miss the season opener and could be gone for an extensive amount of time. Any time Dungy suggests an injury could be "major," as he did today, I fear the worst. And what a bummer, considering Saturday has to be one of the most respected and affable guys in the locker room. Dungy also said it could be a week or two, too, but there's obviously something wrong with that right knee. Saturday gets an MRI, yet a day later, his status is uncertain? We've learned the hard way to smell out such deliberate reports. My gut says this is bad."

From here (Indystar football blog, good source):
Bounce it off PhilB

[BigRed]

Update FWIW:

Jeff Saturday's agent said Wednesday that his client is expected to miss at least six weeks after suffering ligament damage to his right knee in the Colts' third preseason game.

[-X-]

.

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Colts Injuries Adding Up

Week 1 of the NFL season is coming up on us in less than two weeks and the Indianapolis Colts are more prepared to take on a 45-and-over flag football team than they are to challenge for the Super Bowl title. With key players sitting out with injuries and others just returning, the chemistry of the Colts' offense and defense is sorely lacking.

Peyton Manning made an appearance in practice this afternoon and hopes to be ready to play in week one against the Chicago Bears. It may not really matter if Manning plays or not since the offensive line is also battered, bruised, and thinning out by the moment. With Jeff Saturday's MCL "injury" and Ryan Lilja and Mike Pollack sitting out, the offensive line is decimated at a point in the season when they should be the strongest.

On the defensive side of the ball, guys like Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, Robert Mathis, Raheem Brock, and Marcus Howard are either recovering from their injuries or have just got back into the rotation.

The Colts should spank the Bears by fielding their practice squad and three ushers, but it is the NFL and we all know that on any given sunday any team can pull out a victory. Week two takes the Colts to Minnesota to face Adrian Peterson and the rest of the Vikings. Then, week three is a trip back home to face AFC South foe, Jacksonville.

The Colts have their bye week in week four and this could be great for the team by letting injured players rest for one more week, but it could also spell doom, because the Colts then have to make it through 13 more games without a break.

The schedulers have once again given the Colts a tough time with their schedule. Starting in week six, the Colts have Baltimore, then at Green Bay, at Tennessee (Monday night), against New England, and then at Pittsburgh. Five weeks in a row, the Colts could be facing possible playoff teams. After that, if you take a look at weeks 15 and 16, the Colts get a bit of the shaft by playing on a Sunday against the Lions and then follow that up with a game at Jacksonville on Thursday of the same week. Two games in five days? Thanks NFL!!

Overall, I see the Colts being the toast of the AFC South again, but it will definitely be a tough gauntlet to run through.

[brednbuddah]

looks like saturday will be out at least six weeks.

link

this link covers how they may move forward

Plan B

[Burning Sensatio...]

Addai might be the biggest RB dissapointment this year.

[quasta19]

Howard Mudd has a pretty good track record getting mediocre players to play above their talent level in short periods of time. I would not worry to much.

Q

[Jerry Lawler]

You might have to talk me down from the ledge before I can answer this. Injury recovery for Manning, Harrison, Freeney, and Sanders were stress enough.

Assuming Manning and Harrison are able to play near their pre-injury levels in week 1, this Colts offense should still be good, but definitely knock them down a bit with the bad news on Saturday's injury. Saturday is essential to the offensive line, calling out pass protections, etc. He seems like a good run blocker to me too, especially at the second level. The interior of that line is downright scary, and Charlie Johnson looked overmatched at tackle last year. My only reason for hope is that the last time Saturday was out (2004, in the midst of Manning's record-breaking TD season), the Colts scored 51 and 23 points against rebuilding Tenn and Houston teams.

Overall, I'm moving Manning and the WR's down a little bit because the tackles pass block well and Howard Mudd has had good luck with no-name guards. Manning can certainly help with setting pass protection. I think Addai suffers the most because his numbers are a little more dependent on the overall effectiveness of the offense, the abilities of the interior linemen to pull on run plays, and the defense's ability to keep the team in the lead and running out the clock.

[-X-]

So who is most likely to fill Saturday's spot? Mike Pollak, Steve Justice or Jamey Richard?

[Hoss_Cartwright]

So who is most likely to fill Saturday's spot? Mike Pollak, Steve Justice or Jamey Richard?

I loved the Pollak pick during the draft. The plan was for him to play guard this year and take over for Saturday either next year or the year after that. With the current injury situation who knows how they will mix and match. One thing I do believe is that Pollak will play somewhere on the line if healthy.

[Jerry Lawler]

From what I've read, Justice seems to have the inside track for starting the season at center. Justice has seemed decent as a center so far in the pre-season. Like Hoss said, once Pollak gets healthy, I expect him to emerge as a starter somewhere along the line (G or C) at some point this season. To complicate matters further, Ryan Lilja filled in at center the last time Saturday was hurt. Unfortunately, Lilja's injured too. My guess is that Justice starts for now and once everyone is healthy, Lilja starts at center, with Pollak at guard, and Justice as a backup.

[Hipple, Long, Wa...]

Not to mention that one of the negs of a bursa sac removal surgery is lifetime decreased mobility. Last thing he needs right now is more heat.

[Kitrick Taylor]

The real question here is how much does this affect the offensive production of the Colts?

There are more red flags this year than any than any I can remember with them. Does this push them into the realm of average or below?

[knowledge droppe...]

Any LeCharles Bentley sightings?

[quasta19]

From what I read they expect Lilja and Pollack to be back soon. The plan is to start Pollack in Lilja's spot at G and have Lilja play C and make the line calls. I think Johnson will be much better at G than at T.

They have a week and a half to sort it all out. Last year all I heard was how big a drop off the Colts O was going to have without Tarik Glen which turned out to be alot off bull. I really have quite a bit of confidence in their coaching to get the best 5 in there and playing well.

Truthfully I am much more worried about Manning's injury than missing Saturday.

Q

[blackjack23]

I think this is a big worry for Addai. I might even suggest bumping him down below Barber & Gore now.

[cjack]

I admit, historically, I've never been that high on Colts players at their ADP, but I'm staying away even moreso this year. These injuries to the line, plus Manning's situation, don't give me confidence in the Colts this year. I think it even affects Addai. He relied more on opportunities last year than pure talent. With a weaker offensive line and QB, Addai isn't going to see league leading red zone opportunities again. Someone else will take the Colts players well before I would consider them.

[Tanner9919]

Addai might be the biggest RB dissapointment this year.

I'm steering clear of any/all Colts players this year, their great run may have come to an end, at least for 2008...

[Nemesis]

No mention yet of whether Dallas Clark's role changes from Rec TE to more of a Blocking TE to increase protection.
(Clark isn't known to be overly strong in blocking, but I've also never heard him described as a weak blocker either)

Any insight from others?

[Sabertooth]

Yikes,

[raor]

No mention yet of whether Dallas Clark's role changes from Rec TE to more of a Blocking TE to increase protection.
(Clark isn't known to be overly strong in blocking, but I've also never heard him described as a weak blocker either)

Any insight from others?

Stampede Blue - good Colts blog
"The Indianapolis Colts love what TE Dallas Clark brings to the table in the passing game. They've been pleasantly surprised this summer by what former practice squad player Gijon Robinson has brought to the table in the running game. "He's is the best blocking tight end we've had the whole time I've been here," Colts coach Tony Dungy said"

Clark's role stays the same, although downgrade his numbers 1-2% since missing Saturday is HUGE for this offense (2nd most important player after Manning).

[KellysHeroes]

The passing to running ratio will be a lot more passing

[TheFanatic]

Addai might be the biggest RB dissapointment this year.

I'm steering clear of any/all Colts players this year, their great run may have come to an end, at least for 2008...

You guys need to step back from the ledge and calm down

[Bl Deep]

[

Clark's role stays the same, although downgrade his numbers 1-2% since missing Saturday is HUGE for this offense (2nd most important player after Manning).

What a laugher.... Projections aren't that accurate, you are fooling yourself.

[Burning Sensatio...]

Addai might be the biggest RB dissapointment this year.

I'm steering clear of any/all Colts players this year, their great run may have come to an end, at least for 2008...

You guys need to step back from the ledge and calm down

I just said that Addai will dissapoint.

I wont be staying away from Colts players. I still like Wayne, Manning will certainly go before i will consider drafting him though. There is no way Addai ends up on any of any teams. I took him as high as #3 overall last year, but i am confident he wont be a top 10 RB this year.

Gonzo and Harrison could represent some value, but Dallas Clark will be drafted to high in most drafts.

[Hipple, Long, Wa...]

Addai might be the biggest RB dissapointment this year.

I'm steering clear of any/all Colts players this year, their great run may have come to an end, at least for 2008...

You guys need to step back from the ledge and calm down

I'm not like tis guy that I WONT take any colts, but I think their ADP o/w's the risk at almost every player.

And it wasn't by plan, but lookin over my three teams, and I have no colts.

[Hipple, Long, Wa...]

[

Clark's role stays the same, although downgrade his numbers 1-2% since missing Saturday is HUGE for this offense (2nd most important player after Manning).

What a laugher.... Projections aren't that accurate, you are fooling yourself.

I dunno, I think he's underestimating that, but lopping a % off for losing a pro-bowl center make sense to me. I'd make it 4%-5%.

Don't get mad at raor b/c math hates u.

[switz]

Good point. The O-line has been a strong point for the Colts for years, and it might no longer be that.

Last year the OL was a mess from about week 7 onward and we saw what happened. Addai is the most negatively impacted player IMO.

[24seven]

this will have a huge impact on adai. They did draft two centers in this years draft. Peyton's coming off of injury along with marvin. Could be a long year for the colts O.

[Mark Wimer]

Bump for those who want to talk Colts' OL. Please use search function folks - don't need duplicate threads if we can avoid it...

MW

[kris]

Any more opinions on how Addai and Manning are impacted by Saturday being out and the line? Anybody willing to post new projections? I never played football and I'm not sure how much Saturday going down will have on the QB and RB exactly - I know this is bad, but I don't know what the extent of the effect.

[Jerry Lawler]

bump to add that Indy put Ryan Lilja on PUP, so he will miss the first 6 weeks. We're probably looking at rookie Steve Justice at center, with Pollak and Charlie Johnson at the guard positions. Definitely temper your excitement for all of the Colts, especially Addai, but this will still be a good offense now that Manning is healthy. After all, the line is still in better shape than it was at mid-season last year, and the WR's are healthy.

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Meh, call me when Ugoh get's hurt. Until then, Manning's floor is QB4.

[KCC]

When it rains, it freakin' pours. In addition to all the question marks on this o-line, the Colts first three opponents are Chicago, Minnesota, & Jacksonville.

[Sabertooth]

When it rains, it freakin' pours. In addition to all the question marks on this o-line, the Colts first three opponents are Chicago, Minnesota, & Jacksonville.

Could make for some excellent buy-low opportunities on guys like Harrison and Clark. Harrison, as he shakes the rust off, could see some pretty meager stat lines early, and Clark because he may need to block more with so many injuries to the O line. I'd imagine Addai will suffer as well, but he's such a big name that his owners probably won't lower his value much after a few down weeks....unless he really stinks up the joint.

[KCC]

When it rains, it freakin' pours. In addition to all the question marks on this o-line, the Colts first three opponents are Chicago, Minnesota, & Jacksonville.

Could make for some excellent buy-low opportunities on guys like Harrison and Clark. Harrison, as he shakes the rust off, could see some pretty meager stat lines early, and Clark because he may need to block more with so many injuries to the O line. I'd imagine Addai will suffer as well, but he's such a big name that his owners probably won't lower his value much after a few down weeks....unless he really stinks up the joint.

[SeniorVBDStudent]

When it rains, it freakin' pours. In addition to all the question marks on this o-line, the Colts first three opponents are Chicago, Minnesota, & Jacksonville.

Chicago: I think Orton will have a worse day than Manning
Minnesota: I think Tavaris will have a worse day than Manning
Jacksonville: Indy's first loss of the season