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Marion Barber (1 Viewer)
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Fantaholic
Footballguy
I've felt this way all along. He is the only back after LT,AP, and Westy that represents a true upside.
Tough As Nails
Glave Master
The Cowboys could (and maybe should) score 50 offensive TDs this year. Barber is going to be on the field for almost all of them. That's a lot of opportunities. 15 TDs seems very reasonable. 20, not out of the realm of possibilities. If you are in a TD-heavy league...I think he's the #2 back. If it's a yardage heavy league or PPR...then drop him down to #5. I wouldn't fault anybody for drafting him anywhere other than #1 though. He's got a really high downside. If he's not injured...there's no way he scores less than 12 TDs.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Upside in what? Certainly not TD's. Rushing yards? Sure I can see him getting more rushing yards this year with the additional carries he'll get, but I don't see any way he keeps his lofty ypc from last year as this season's starter so it won't be the dramatic increase many people think. I can see MBIII finally breaking 1000 yards rushing, but anyone who thinks he's going to rush for 1400 - 1500 yards is in for a rude awakening imo.Receiving yards? From what I've seen of Felix Jones, he's a much better receiver and playmaker than Juilus Jones last year. Maybe the Dallas homers can chime in, but isn't Felix expected to be more heavier involved in the passing game than JJ was last year? That's been my impression. If so, I don't see any substantial increase in receiving yards for MBIII. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if his receiving #'s went down slightly.In conclusion, I think MBIII has some upside in rushing yards -- that's pretty much it. I think his ceiling is a fringe top 5 back.
packersfan
Footballguy
I agree. I think it's a tad high but it's tough to argue with it when you look at everything. Plus, if last week's preseason game is any indication, perhaps Felix Jones won't be getting as significant of a role as many (myself included) expected. I never thought he'd take a lot of carries away from Barber - Barber is just too damn good - but I thought he'd have a role similar to what Julius Jones had only with more receptions. But if Barber is going to dominate the touches as he did in the critical third preseason game perhaps taking him third overall isn't such a reach when one combines his talent and the offense he's in with the major issues that surround Jackson (holdout/bad team), Gore (great talent/horrible team) and Addai (Manning's injury and its possible impact).
footballnerd
Footballguy
I'm not sure I'd take Barber over Westbrook just because you gotta know Westy's gonna get his in that offense, nor ADP with that line. But I am debating Barber over Addai at #4. The two might be the same, but I'd go with Barber just because he's a BAD ### DUDE! and be more fun to root for.
Fantaholic
Footballguy
Why not? Would anybody on this message board be truly surprised to see that Barber had 20+ TD's at the end of this season??? Barber is the only unknown in the top tier of backs, because we have never seen him in the featured role. All we can do is build projections based on what he has done in a split-duty role for a few years. He is an unkown going into this year versus guys like SJ, Gore, or Addai tha have been their respective teams featured backs. Is it a guarantee that he will be the featured back and Felix will be a true back-up, No. However, if he is indeed given the lion's share of the carries and Dallas performs to their potential offensively, Barber is in for a season similar to one of his predecessors, Emmit Smith.
If Barber was at my draft at #6 I would be happy to take him. I'd bet you don't need to worry about his services at #6. Dallas will score a lot and Barber will be very productive this year (IMO).
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Hasn't MBIII been given goal-line and inside the 20 yard line duties exclusively over the past two years? Why, with the addition of a high quality backup, would we expect a large uptick in TD's?
zoonation
Footballguy
Barber is easily draftable in the 3 hole. In fact, of all the tier 1 backs, I think he is easily the safest bet (LT2 excluded) to finish top 5 given the offense he plays in and his likely monopoly on redzone and goalline touches.
The 1st round is where you don't want to lose the draft, and a guy who is a shoe-in for 12tds, and likely a whole lot more, is an easy choice.
The 1st round is where you don't want to lose the draft, and a guy who is a shoe-in for 12tds, and likely a whole lot more, is an easy choice.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Barber got all of the goalline work last year. Nothing changes there. I expect the Dallas offense to put up similar #'s to what they did last year. So yes, I would be pretty surprised if Barber increased his TD production by 33%+ which is what you're saying.
Tubalcane
Footballguy
Perhaps Cecil and Bloom are a bit enamored with how Barber looked in Friday's
preseason game. That’s exactly why I try not to watch preseason games. Third is two high.
I make these remarks even though I drafted Barber from the fifth position in my Home league draft Saturday.
preseason game. That’s exactly why I try not to watch preseason games. Third is two high.
I make these remarks even though I drafted Barber from the fifth position in my Home league draft Saturday.
Last edited by a moderator:
Moe Green
Footballguy
No freaking kidding.
Some people are johnny-come-latelys on Barber... 
I've had Barber at #2 on my redraft overall board and #4 on my PPR overall board all preseason long.
I agree with the posters above that feel that Barber is the best fantasy RB this side of LT II in a non-PPR redraft league - in a PPR league Westbrook edges Barber due to his incredible number of receptions each season (77 over 15 games in '06 and 90 over 15 games in '07).
I've had Barber at #2 on my redraft overall board and #4 on my PPR overall board all preseason long.
I agree with the posters above that feel that Barber is the best fantasy RB this side of LT II in a non-PPR redraft league - in a PPR league Westbrook edges Barber due to his incredible number of receptions each season (77 over 15 games in '06 and 90 over 15 games in '07).
One picture is worth a thousand words and that one picture was Friday's game. Zero touches for Felix with the first team. Zero third downs, zero at the goal line and zero spells. It's MBIII all the time.I took him this past Sunday with my 4th pick. Our league is mostly a TD league with some points given out for yards but the majority of the scoring comes from TDs. LT, ADP, and Brady were gone and therefore I took MBIII. I was debating between Barber and Westy but I believe Barber will have a monster year. I caught him down in training camp and watched him live and he blew me away. I think Dallas overall is in for a monster season and Barber will be better than all the other backs that people may think to draft before him like Gore, Addai, and SJax.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
man it took you 20 posts to get in here.Your slipping
Barber certainly looks like a top-5 back, but there are still questions.
1) He'll be running on 1st and 2nd down much more this year as the starter. Running lanes on early downs, especially in the first quarter, are much harder to come-by. He won't have the benefit of coming in fresh in the 2nd and 4th quarters, after the Dallas passing attack and Julius Jones has loosened up the Defense. He may be talented enough to overcome his new role, but he still hasn't proven it.
2) He has looked great in pre-season. Preseason is meaningless and there are no proven trends showing that good play or bad play in the preseason has any impact on the regular season. Be careful about evaluating Barber's 2008 potential based on his ability to seemingly run wild in the preseason.
3) He hasn't carried the full load yet, and his running-style is one that promotes injury because Barber never shies away from contact. If anything, he welcomes contact, and as an up-right runner, he could easily get dinged up.
1) He'll be running on 1st and 2nd down much more this year as the starter. Running lanes on early downs, especially in the first quarter, are much harder to come-by. He won't have the benefit of coming in fresh in the 2nd and 4th quarters, after the Dallas passing attack and Julius Jones has loosened up the Defense. He may be talented enough to overcome his new role, but he still hasn't proven it.
2) He has looked great in pre-season. Preseason is meaningless and there are no proven trends showing that good play or bad play in the preseason has any impact on the regular season. Be careful about evaluating Barber's 2008 potential based on his ability to seemingly run wild in the preseason.
3) He hasn't carried the full load yet, and his running-style is one that promotes injury because Barber never shies away from contact. If anything, he welcomes contact, and as an up-right runner, he could easily get dinged up.
The Jacket
Footballguy
The Browns' run defense looks solid. It's my QB and WRs I'd love to have facing the Brown.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
By all accounts Shaun Rogers has been an absolute terror and unblockable on the interior dline. They also added Corey Williams. Meanwhile, the Browns have one of the worst secondaries in the league.
packersfan
Footballguy
I'm not sure too many people are pumping up Barber based on the preseason. The guy has been Top 10 the past two seasons while being in a time share and now is the clear starter so that alone is giving him strong value. If there's anything coming out of the preseason with him, I think it's due to the fact Felix Jones was MIA in the third preseason game, usually considered the most critical game of the preseason. I doubt Barber will dominate the touches all season long the way he did in that game but I did find it quite curious that Jones was nowhere to be found in that game. It leads me to wonder if some of us have been guilty of overrating the impact Jones will make this season barring an injury to Barber.
BigRed
Footballguy
I hope you're kidding; even the best of RBs rarely if ever get 20+ in a career...and Barber is good, but not a "best ever."
Yeah. Vintage 04.
He should be fine, but he isn't getting 1200+ and likely max 10-15 TD range. IMO he'll do similar to last year, maybe a little more - which is still very good.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
You know what? I think most every hard core FBG feels this in his gut. They know Barber is young, in a great offense, proved himself in a part time role and is a lock, barring injury to put up monster stats. Jones not getting significant action in week 3 was big. He will spell Barber, nothing more. MBIII is going to get TD's no matter what. 10-12 is the absolute floor with this guy, and we all know it. High teens easily in reach The issue? He's not a "marquee" name yet. Nobody wants to be wrong with a #3 pick. LT, ADP, Brady, Westbrook, SJax and even Addai are "sexier" picks. Nobody will get heckled for drafting those guys. But do you have the nads to take Barber at 3 in a non PPR and have people pop off with the proverbial "great pick, I had him at 8" remarks? Takes nads to win in this game. I've been on Westbrook at 3. Barber has already passed SJax (same type of back, much better situation/offense) in my opinion. Now the question is will I have the uts to pull the trigger on Barber over Westbrook. I think both will do great, but the TD ceiling is much higher with Mr. Barber IMHO. FYI, I'm trying hard to trade down. If you like Barber at 3 than this is the play if possible. In my league - not likely to happen.
Tau837
Footballguy
Previous post on Barber:
Obviously, there are two factors that go into production: number of touches and production per touch. Thus far in his career, Barber's production per touch has exceeded Tomlinson's career production, and IMO it is likely to go down this season. If that is true, then he has to get more touches just to maintain his past production, much less exceed it. As you can see above, I don't see that happening. IMO if he starts carrying a heavier load, his production will slip enough to largely offset the extra touches, and he will stand an above average chance of getting hurt, given his running style. I know most people disagree with this, but that's my view.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
So, I imagine you like LT, ADP, Westy, SJax in front of him. For him to not finish in the top 5, that means you have the likes of Addai or Portis ahead of him?
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I can see Barber as the #3 back in TD-heavy leagues, but not in any other format. However, I would have no problem taking him at #6 in any format, unless Westy fell.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Nah, Switz? - couldn't be...
the spanker
Footballguy
wickster33
Footballguy
In a couple of short years, MBIII has gone from very underrated to very overrated.
I really don't see any upside here. He was already getting all the goal line carries and it would be pretty foolish to assume that if he gets twice the snaps that he'll get twice the fantasy points. Of course, I don't think he'll get twice the snaps. Felix Jones was Jerry's pick, and I guarantee you he'll get plenty of run, just so Jerry can crow about what a great pick he made.
Marian will be very productive, assuming he avoids injury, but I hardly think he qualifies as a shark pick. To me, the shark pick is Felix Jones as a RB4 or 5. I think he'll get the carries that went to JJ last year and that Dallas will also try to get him on the field in passing situations ala Reggie Bush. Finally, if MBIII breaks down under the load (and as much as we love him, he's never proven that he can take a full load), Felix rockets up to a RB2
I really don't see any upside here. He was already getting all the goal line carries and it would be pretty foolish to assume that if he gets twice the snaps that he'll get twice the fantasy points. Of course, I don't think he'll get twice the snaps. Felix Jones was Jerry's pick, and I guarantee you he'll get plenty of run, just so Jerry can crow about what a great pick he made.
Marian will be very productive, assuming he avoids injury, but I hardly think he qualifies as a shark pick. To me, the shark pick is Felix Jones as a RB4 or 5. I think he'll get the carries that went to JJ last year and that Dallas will also try to get him on the field in passing situations ala Reggie Bush. Finally, if MBIII breaks down under the load (and as much as we love him, he's never proven that he can take a full load), Felix rockets up to a RB2
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I doubt he even finishes the season unscathed/unhurt, esp with that hard-nosed running style..You mean like Jim Brown, Jerome Bettis and Walter Payton? Plenty of hard-nosed RBs survive quite fine. I don't see Barber as a huge injury risk. Maybe I haven't been paying attention.I doubt he even finishes the season unscathed/unhurt, esp with that hard-nosed running style..
Gr00vus
Footballguy
You forgot some guys, like Larry Csonka and Earl Campbell. They had a few good years playing run over/through the defense - of course they also completely fell apart physically shortly thereafter.You mean like Jim Brown, Jerome Bettis and Walter Payton? Plenty of hard-nosed RBs survive quite fine. I don't see Barber as a huge injury risk. Maybe I haven't been paying attention.I doubt he even finishes the season unscathed/unhurt, esp with that hard-nosed running style..
switz
Footballguy
Both
timschochet
Footballguy
I love Barber but I think Addai is getting somewhat ignored here, especially in PPR. Of course, a key is Peyton's health, but there was almost no other back as consistent as Addai last year. He gets a lot of carries and a lot of catches. He's always involved in the offense. Why should it be any different this year? I like Addai #3 in PPR, even above Westbrook and Jackson.
wraith5
Footballguy
His slipping what?
packersfan
Footballguy
Westbrook is gold in a PPR league. I wouldn't rank him lower than second in that format. If Manning's healthy, Addai is a very safe pick. I don't see a tremendous amount of upside (I think Gore is the real upside play in a PPR format) but he doesn't have much downside. Very safe. But the key is Peyton's injury not being serious. Sorry for the hijack.timschochet said:
Kyzersosik
Footballguy
had 6 in my 14 team ppr this past sat, came down to barber, gore and s jax. basically it came down to the amount of scoring opp. i thought each would have and for this reason drafted Barber. As stated, Dallas could score 55-60 tds. with Barber finishing around 1200/12 tds. 40 catches 325 yds and 2 or 3 scores. 
sdsjr3
Footballguy
timschochet said:
Addai over Westy and SJax in PPR? No way. Perhaps an argument could be made for SJax and Addai being about even. But I think Westy is just a tick below LT in a PPR format. Possibly even.Talking about Barber in PPR...yeah, there's a dropoff there. In standard formats though I like Barber over Addai/Gore/Portis. If I KNEW FOR CERTAIN that everything Indy was as it was last year with regard to the O-line, Peyton, etc. yeah...then the Bloom is back on Addai's rose.Blood Hound
Footballguy
1) TO will score considerably more TDs than Irvin2) Likewise, Witten will cyphen off more TDs than Novacheck3) Emmitt didn't have a lightning to his thunder like Barber has in FelixBarber is a solid top #8 RB, but these expectations are unrealistic.
Pimpin Ain't Easy
Footballguy
I took Barber at #3 in a PPR FBG draft on Monday night. I caught some smack for it, but thats the way it goes. I just think he is the safest pick at that point.
I have Westbrook real close as well, and most have him at #2 or 3 in PPR leagues. Almost took him instead.
Lots of talk about MB3's running style and injury risk, but I'd say Gore, S Jax, Addai and even Westbrook have their own concerns when it comes to injury. Seems like Westbrook was questionable every week last year. Not much Practice time for him either.
I also like Dallas' offense much better than the others. Indy is in the discussion, but I just have a bad feeling abouth them this year.
Romo broke the team record last year with 36 TD's. I'd assume he has to come back to earth some also, possibly giving MB3 more scoring oppertunnities.
Felix is the wildcard, but after the last game I am starting to think his rookie impact is being exaggerated some. (Sorry Switz)
The thing I worry about the most with MB3 is if the Cowboys are up big in the 2nd half and they decide to shut MB3 down early.
I have Westbrook real close as well, and most have him at #2 or 3 in PPR leagues. Almost took him instead.
Lots of talk about MB3's running style and injury risk, but I'd say Gore, S Jax, Addai and even Westbrook have their own concerns when it comes to injury. Seems like Westbrook was questionable every week last year. Not much Practice time for him either.
I also like Dallas' offense much better than the others. Indy is in the discussion, but I just have a bad feeling abouth them this year.
Romo broke the team record last year with 36 TD's. I'd assume he has to come back to earth some also, possibly giving MB3 more scoring oppertunnities.
Felix is the wildcard, but after the last game I am starting to think his rookie impact is being exaggerated some. (Sorry Switz)
The thing I worry about the most with MB3 is if the Cowboys are up big in the 2nd half and they decide to shut MB3 down early.
oddball
Smart
19th round, took a flyer on Tashard Choice.I doubt he even finishes the season unscathed/unhurt, esp with that hard-nosed running style..
Seems like two people are missing the point.Hard nose runner doesn't equal huge injury risk. Again, if I'm wrong please post a link to the data. Seeing as you guys are making the assertion running style = massive injuries, I'd like to see some data to back it up. Reggie Bush crumples to the ground whenever someone gets within 5 yards, and he's hurt all the time.You forgot some guys, like Larry Csonka and Earl Campbell. They had a few good years playing run over/through the defense - of course they also completely fell apart physically shortly thereafter.You mean like Jim Brown, Jerome Bettis and Walter Payton? Plenty of hard-nosed RBs survive quite fine. I don't see Barber as a huge injury risk. Maybe I haven't been paying attention.
Team Legacy
Footballguy
Pipe this thread down I say! I'm picking at 4 next week...
kingmalaki
Footballguy
Hmm, so from reading these comments I guess I made a boo-boo by passing on him for Lynch in a non ppr redraft....
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