What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

What Does History Say? (1 Viewer)

Abstract

Footballguy
I was just sitting here thinking about Michael Turner's outstanding performance last week and it got me to thinking. Does anyone know what history says about how a guy does following his 200 yard blow up? What does he normally do the next game?

 
I was just sitting here thinking about Michael Turner's outstanding performance last week and it got me to thinking. Does anyone know what history says about how a guy does following his 200 yard blow up? What does he normally do the next game?
how about season or career outlook? :eek: Turner dynasty ownerwhere's Drinen?
 
Umm, the odds are he'll rush for less than 200 the next week. No calculations needed.

Seriously, with so many variables at play, I think it would be ludicrous to use any kind of statistical study to decide if he's worth a start the follow-up week...especially compared to any other RB on your roster that didn't rush for 200 yards last week.

It's probably pretty safe to say a guy that can put up 200+ in a game is capable of putting up 1500+ on the season. But we knew that already. The question about Turner is whether the supporting cast and his health will allow that to happen. We still don't know that but the odds have now shifted further in his favor.

 
Ryan Grant 200 yards. I think it's the Lions defense.

This week he's going against the Bucs. This could be interesting and show how good the Falcons are(or aren't).

 
I was just sitting here thinking about Michael Turner's outstanding performance last week and it got me to thinking. Does anyone know what history says about how a guy does following his 200 yard blow up? What does he normally do the next game?
Reply posted at the PFR blog.While there is more in the full post, here is an excerpt:

Going back to 1995, there have been fifty occasions where a running back has rushed for at least 200 yards in a regular season game. Eight of those occurred in the final week of the regular season, so we will throw those out. For the remaining 42 cases, the running back played in the next game in all of them. Here’s how they did:

As a group, they averaged 21.4 rush attempts, 94.8 rushing yards, 24.1 receiving yards, and 1.0 total touchdowns the following week. In a non-points per reception scoring format, they averaged a pretty healthy 18.0 fantasy points the next week.

Just over half of them (22) rushed for at least 100 yards the following week. Over half of them (23) had at least 125 total yards the following week. Twenty-nine (69%) of them scored at least one touchdown the week after. Only seven of them compiled fewer than 100 total yards while also failing to score a touchdown, including both Lewis and Peterson (after the San Diego game) last year.
 
I was just sitting here thinking about Michael Turner's outstanding performance last week and it got me to thinking. Does anyone know what history says about how a guy does following his 200 yard blow up? What does he normally do the next game?
Reply posted at the PFR blog.While there is more in the full post, here is an excerpt:

Going back to 1995, there have been fifty occasions where a running back has rushed for at least 200 yards in a regular season game. Eight of those occurred in the final week of the regular season, so we will throw those out. For the remaining 42 cases, the running back played in the next game in all of them. Here’s how they did:

As a group, they averaged 21.4 rush attempts, 94.8 rushing yards, 24.1 receiving yards, and 1.0 total touchdowns the following week. In a non-points per reception scoring format, they averaged a pretty healthy 18.0 fantasy points the next week.

Just over half of them (22) rushed for at least 100 yards the following week. Over half of them (23) had at least 125 total yards the following week. Twenty-nine (69%) of them scored at least one touchdown the week after. Only seven of them compiled fewer than 100 total yards while also failing to score a touchdown, including both Lewis and Peterson (after the San Diego game) last year.
Interesting stats. Makes it tough to bench Turner this week then doesn't it?
 
Interesting stats. Makes it tough to bench Turner this week then doesn't it?
Funny, and this is not in reference to you, that there is a strong anti-Turner crowd in here. I recall before Turner was ever drafted by SD, bringing up that I thought he could be a stud in the NFL, as he was a rare size & speed combo. And people laughed because he went to a small school, and then got drafted to be a backup, pretty late in the draft. Since then, many people have knocked Turner.Even after putting up 220 yards against Detroit, people want to knock him, and say it's Detroit, so obviously he wasn't running that well. He broke tackles, showed his speed, showed vision. Sure, against a better defense, he may not have 220 yards. But it wasn't all bad defense. He flashed the same skills he had shown in college and at SD, while getting a full workload. The man has loads of talent.He may not have a super long career a a starter. In fact he reminds me a lot of another former SD back, Natrone Means. But as long as he's playing, he's for real.He'll have over 120 yards this week, and 2 TDs. Mark it down.
 
Interesting stats. Makes it tough to bench Turner this week then doesn't it?
Funny, and this is not in reference to you, that there is a strong anti-Turner crowd in here. I recall before Turner was ever drafted by SD, bringing up that I thought he could be a stud in the NFL, as he was a rare size & speed combo. And people laughed because he went to a small school, and then got drafted to be a backup, pretty late in the draft. Since then, many people have knocked Turner.Even after putting up 220 yards against Detroit, people want to knock him, and say it's Detroit, so obviously he wasn't running that well. He broke tackles, showed his speed, showed vision. Sure, against a better defense, he may not have 220 yards. But it wasn't all bad defense. He flashed the same skills he had shown in college and at SD, while getting a full workload. The man has loads of talent.He may not have a super long career a a starter. In fact he reminds me a lot of another former SD back, Natrone Means. But as long as he's playing, he's for real.He'll have over 120 yards this week, and 2 TDs. Mark it down.
Grrr..... :rant: Now I gotta decide if I'm still gonna play Chris Johnson or bench him and play M. Barber.Oh, the humanity of having 3 good RB's. :lmao:
 
I was just sitting here thinking about Michael Turner's outstanding performance last week and it got me to thinking. Does anyone know what history says about how a guy does following his 200 yard blow up? What does he normally do the next game?
they are playing at TB this weekend. I doubt he runs wild against THAT defense at their home opener..probably 80-90 yards rushing..

 
I was just sitting here thinking about Michael Turner's outstanding performance last week and it got me to thinking. Does anyone know what history says about how a guy does following his 200 yard blow up? What does he normally do the next game?
they are playing at TB this weekend. I doubt he runs wild against THAT defense at their home opener..probably 80-90 yards rushing..
You mean the same Tampa that Pierre Thomas averaged 5.2 YPC against, or that Bush put up 163 total yards against. All he has to do is break one play and he's over 100.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top