Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 11 was another good week, that's three in a row. Three weeks at 20-10, you'd wonder if I would start to get cocky. Well, I know that's a mistake, but I'll take 20-10 all the same. 44-36-1 for the year isn't too shabby. I know it can all fall apart so let's stay humble and do the homework, and hopefully the roll continues. Let's see how I do this week....
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Houston Texans (+3) at Cleveland Browns - (1 star)
The Texans can put up some poins and the Browns have a porous secondary. Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter and Andre Johnson should run wild. The Texans added Xavier Adibi on defense last week, boosting their chances to compete against the run. The Browns changed QBs but they didn't change their conservative coaching nor fix Braylon Edwards' propensity to drop catchable balls. While it's hard to love a troubled team like the Texans on the road, I think this is a field goal game and Houston can steal the game outright here. I'll be clear though, I think the Browns should be favored but more like 6 or 7 points, so this is a play only because I see value. It's a weak play for sure.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) vs. Buffalo Bills - (1 star)
Tyler Thigpen is playing well, helped by Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe. Mark Bradley adds to the effort and Larry Johnson is getting back into the fold. Buffalo? Did you see Monday Night Football? Trent Edwards must be nearsighted because he looks afraid to throw the ball downfield - and by downfield I mean more than 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs are racking up plenty of points, breaking 20 three of the last four weeks (with one 19 in there). Buffalo did have 27 last week, but that's at home against Cleveland. Give me the home 'dog here.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (Under 41) - (1 star)
The Jets and the Titans get together in a huge AFC contest that pits two strong defenses against each other. Both New York and Tennessee are strong against the run so this may come down to secondaries. If Favre is conservative and doesn't turn the ball over (I know, I know...) then this game should be a very close game with both teams under 20 points. 19-13 or 19-16 Tennessee is my best guess, but I think the winner doesn't need 20 points.
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (Under 43.5) - (1 star)
These offenses are a mess. The Bears racked up a stunning 3 points last week while the Rams racked up 16 against the 49ers. Are we expecting 17 or more per team here? I don't see it. The Bears' defense will get after Bulger and St. Louis, limiting their production while Matt Forte will eat up yards and clock. I see a Bears victory in a lower scoring contest, 17-6.
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 41) - (1 star)
Another tough matchup this week. Both defenses are good against the opposition's offensive strength. Adrian Peterson may struggle against Jacksonville and MJD will certainly have troubles against the Vikings front seven. Neither QB scares anyone right now as both Frerotte and Garrard are not dominant. Here's another low-scoring one in my opinion that should be a 17-13 type game.
Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons - (1 star)
Come on, I know you had this one circled as a big game back in August, right? Sure you did. Carolina (8-2) at Atlanta (6-4) is a bigtime matchup in the NFC. Carolina's defense is strong against the run, which should slow but not stop Michael Turner. Norwood is questionable which hurts Atlanta and Roddy White is also less than 100%, so I'm going to go with the veteran offense here and say that the Panthers pull off the victory. Julius Peppers will tee off to get to Matt Ryan and I'll take the team that dominated last time as the Panthers won back in Week 4, 24-9. Is Atlanta better than then? Yes, but not 16 points better. Carolina 24-20.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) at Detroit Lions - (2 stars)
At some point Detroit will win, but there's an old saying about trends - go with them until they fail and you'll only be wrong once. Detroit redefines terrible football most every week, and I don't see this being any different. Warrick Dunn will have 150 total yards and Garcia will have a field day. Kevin Smith will have 75 or more total yards but Culpepper will not be mistake free. Bucs win 31-14 due to Calvin and Smith finding the end zone.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
None. Not a great week.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 11 was another good week, that's three in a row. Three weeks at 20-10, you'd wonder if I would start to get cocky. Well, I know that's a mistake, but I'll take 20-10 all the same. 44-36-1 for the year isn't too shabby. I know it can all fall apart so let's stay humble and do the homework, and hopefully the roll continues. Let's see how I do this week....
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
Houston Texans (+3) at Cleveland Browns - (1 star)
The Texans can put up some poins and the Browns have a porous secondary. Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter and Andre Johnson should run wild. The Texans added Xavier Adibi on defense last week, boosting their chances to compete against the run. The Browns changed QBs but they didn't change their conservative coaching nor fix Braylon Edwards' propensity to drop catchable balls. While it's hard to love a troubled team like the Texans on the road, I think this is a field goal game and Houston can steal the game outright here. I'll be clear though, I think the Browns should be favored but more like 6 or 7 points, so this is a play only because I see value. It's a weak play for sure.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) vs. Buffalo Bills - (1 star)
Tyler Thigpen is playing well, helped by Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe. Mark Bradley adds to the effort and Larry Johnson is getting back into the fold. Buffalo? Did you see Monday Night Football? Trent Edwards must be nearsighted because he looks afraid to throw the ball downfield - and by downfield I mean more than 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs are racking up plenty of points, breaking 20 three of the last four weeks (with one 19 in there). Buffalo did have 27 last week, but that's at home against Cleveland. Give me the home 'dog here.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (Under 41) - (1 star)
The Jets and the Titans get together in a huge AFC contest that pits two strong defenses against each other. Both New York and Tennessee are strong against the run so this may come down to secondaries. If Favre is conservative and doesn't turn the ball over (I know, I know...) then this game should be a very close game with both teams under 20 points. 19-13 or 19-16 Tennessee is my best guess, but I think the winner doesn't need 20 points.
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (Under 43.5) - (1 star)
These offenses are a mess. The Bears racked up a stunning 3 points last week while the Rams racked up 16 against the 49ers. Are we expecting 17 or more per team here? I don't see it. The Bears' defense will get after Bulger and St. Louis, limiting their production while Matt Forte will eat up yards and clock. I see a Bears victory in a lower scoring contest, 17-6.
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 41) - (1 star)
Another tough matchup this week. Both defenses are good against the opposition's offensive strength. Adrian Peterson may struggle against Jacksonville and MJD will certainly have troubles against the Vikings front seven. Neither QB scares anyone right now as both Frerotte and Garrard are not dominant. Here's another low-scoring one in my opinion that should be a 17-13 type game.
Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons - (1 star)
Come on, I know you had this one circled as a big game back in August, right? Sure you did. Carolina (8-2) at Atlanta (6-4) is a bigtime matchup in the NFC. Carolina's defense is strong against the run, which should slow but not stop Michael Turner. Norwood is questionable which hurts Atlanta and Roddy White is also less than 100%, so I'm going to go with the veteran offense here and say that the Panthers pull off the victory. Julius Peppers will tee off to get to Matt Ryan and I'll take the team that dominated last time as the Panthers won back in Week 4, 24-9. Is Atlanta better than then? Yes, but not 16 points better. Carolina 24-20.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) at Detroit Lions - (2 stars)
At some point Detroit will win, but there's an old saying about trends - go with them until they fail and you'll only be wrong once. Detroit redefines terrible football most every week, and I don't see this being any different. Warrick Dunn will have 150 total yards and Garcia will have a field day. Kevin Smith will have 75 or more total yards but Culpepper will not be mistake free. Bucs win 31-14 due to Calvin and Smith finding the end zone.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
None. Not a great week.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
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