Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 15 was a losing week at 4-8 – but hey, that's bound to happen. It was a great run for the past month-plus, so a loser has to be expected to come. The lesson learned here is that if you don't love an NFL Week, don't heavily invest. I should have known that, but that's how it goes sometimes.
So the record now stands at 73-54-2 on the year, still a very respectable 57.5% and a winner overall any way you slice it. As I've said before, none of that helps this week and you have to stay humble.
Turns out that I seem to like a lot of action this week – we'll see how that works out.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
SATURDAY: Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) at Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)
This is a tricky one, and I almost want to say "stay away", but the numbers tell me that Baltimore should actually be a "pick 'em" here or favored by a point. Both teams need this for their playoff hopes, but Baltimore actually needs it more. Dallas will likely still be alive for the postseason even with a loss, but Baltimore may need to be 11-5 to continue their season beyond Week 17. The Ravens have scored a lot more points than many people realize (against teams not from Pittsburgh) so they could keep pace with Dallas if the scores start to elevate, but I expect Baltimore to take the air out and use McClain, Rice and McGahee to run it 40+ times against the Cowboys. Dallas will be riding an emotional high as all the ex-Cowboys join "Jerrah" on the sidelines for the closing of Texas Stadium, but once the game begins none of that matters. Marion Barber will likely be out of this one or barely used, but no matter – Baltimore hasn't allowed a 100+ yard rusher in over two years. It will come down to Romo vs. the Ravens' secondary, so Ed Reed and Fabian Washington's health will be key. If both are active I think Baltimore steals this game and wins a low scoring contest, 20-17.
Arizona Cardinals (+8) at New England Patriots - (1 star)
This game has obvious weather issues, but assuming that the weather is not unbearable the Cardinals should put up solid numbers. I would wait to the last minute (or hour) to see how bad the conditions are before picking this one (so if the weather is bad, don't take this one). Then again, if it is really bad, the game should not be more than a touchdown in either direction so the Cards should cover as well. There aren't too many scenarios where Arizona loses by 10 or more, so Arizona looks to be a reasonably safe play.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (OVER 37.5) - (1 star)
The weather is factor in yet another game, but both teams would rather run than pass in most instances anyway. This isn't great news to either Steve Smith or the quarterbacks in this one, but both teams could push 200 yards on the ground with their stable of backs. As long as the winds aren't too bad (and they are not expected to be too violent, but this is The Meadowlands) both kickers should also be effective. Both defenses have the ability to make big plays as well which should help to put points on the scoreboard, and if either team trails too much they have the ability to throw enough to score quickly. The game will be a closely fought, 24-17 type of game.
New York Jets (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks - (1 star)
Brett Favre gets to say goodbye (again) to Mike Holmgren is his final home game as the head coach in Seattle. The Jets desperately need this game to hold serve and prep for their clash with Miami next Sunday (Night?). Thomas Jones will be the deciding factor as he should rack up tons of yards on the ground and score yet again, and Leon Washington will continue to be one of the best secondary backs in the NFL. Seattle has played well with Seneca Wallace under center and both Deion Branch and John Carlson can produce, but I don't think it will be enough. Jets 27-20.
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (UNDER 44) - (1 star)
Oakland has one question on their mind – is it over yet? Two games to go and their starting receivers this week are Johnny Lee Higgins and Chaz Schilens. Yikes. The only possible ray of hope is if Darren McFadden can show any signs of promise for next year. Tom Cable would change the channel if he could. Houston's Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson will have field days. Houston wins this one big, but the under here is simply because I don't think Oakland gets 10 points. Houston 31-7.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Washington Redskins - (2 stars)
Normally when these two NFC East teams get together it is a close and hard-fought game. Right now, this one is far from normal. The Redskins are mailing it in at 7-7 and without a healthy Clinton Portis. Jason Campbell is complaining of being "tired" and the disappointment has spread to the fan base with this team. There will be many empty seats in Landover this week at FedEx Field as it is going to be cold and wet and miserable for a late kickoff. Eagles fans who want tickets to this game won't have trouble getting them at all, so there goes any real semblance of a home field advantage. Bottom line is that Philly has much more to play for and that Washington really doesn't (despite not being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet). Eagles should win this one handily, 34-13.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (OVER 42.5) - (2 stars)
Atlanta and Tampa Bay was a low scoring affair last week that headed into overtime, but that's a different defense than what the Falcons will see on Sunday. Minnesota is missing Pat Williams and has a soft secondary, which should have Roddy White and Matt Ryan salivating. Michael Turner should also put up 100+ yards but Adrian Peterson wants that rushing title and should match or beat Turner's production. I see both teams racking up 20+ points and it will take 24 to win this one, so that gives me 24-20 as the worst case – that tells me to go "over" here. Plus both kickers are pretty good, which certainly helps.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Detroit Lions - (3 stars)
News flash – Detroit's pretty bad. Not as bad as they were on Thanksgiving (which is probably the first and last time many saw the Lions this year), but they're still struggling. Dan Orlovsky actually had the Lions tied in the fourth quarter but the Colts were just too much when they kicked it up a notch. Detroit has two weapons on offense – Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith. Both of them could certainly find the end zone on Sunday, but the Detriot defense (or should I say "etroit") can't stop Pierre Thomas or Drew Brees. Brees is talking about his assault on Marino's yardage record and is just over 750 yards away with two games left. Look for Thomas to top 150 total yards and Brees to push 400 as New Orleans plays "fast break football" all day. The Saints don't have anything to play for other than stats, so look for Detroit to fall behind early and not be able to keep up at all. New Orleans 45, Detroit 27.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
Week 15 was a losing week at 4-8 – but hey, that's bound to happen. It was a great run for the past month-plus, so a loser has to be expected to come. The lesson learned here is that if you don't love an NFL Week, don't heavily invest. I should have known that, but that's how it goes sometimes.
So the record now stands at 73-54-2 on the year, still a very respectable 57.5% and a winner overall any way you slice it. As I've said before, none of that helps this week and you have to stay humble.
Turns out that I seem to like a lot of action this week – we'll see how that works out.
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
SATURDAY: Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) at Dallas Cowboys - (1 star)
This is a tricky one, and I almost want to say "stay away", but the numbers tell me that Baltimore should actually be a "pick 'em" here or favored by a point. Both teams need this for their playoff hopes, but Baltimore actually needs it more. Dallas will likely still be alive for the postseason even with a loss, but Baltimore may need to be 11-5 to continue their season beyond Week 17. The Ravens have scored a lot more points than many people realize (against teams not from Pittsburgh) so they could keep pace with Dallas if the scores start to elevate, but I expect Baltimore to take the air out and use McClain, Rice and McGahee to run it 40+ times against the Cowboys. Dallas will be riding an emotional high as all the ex-Cowboys join "Jerrah" on the sidelines for the closing of Texas Stadium, but once the game begins none of that matters. Marion Barber will likely be out of this one or barely used, but no matter – Baltimore hasn't allowed a 100+ yard rusher in over two years. It will come down to Romo vs. the Ravens' secondary, so Ed Reed and Fabian Washington's health will be key. If both are active I think Baltimore steals this game and wins a low scoring contest, 20-17.
Arizona Cardinals (+8) at New England Patriots - (1 star)
This game has obvious weather issues, but assuming that the weather is not unbearable the Cardinals should put up solid numbers. I would wait to the last minute (or hour) to see how bad the conditions are before picking this one (so if the weather is bad, don't take this one). Then again, if it is really bad, the game should not be more than a touchdown in either direction so the Cards should cover as well. There aren't too many scenarios where Arizona loses by 10 or more, so Arizona looks to be a reasonably safe play.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (OVER 37.5) - (1 star)
The weather is factor in yet another game, but both teams would rather run than pass in most instances anyway. This isn't great news to either Steve Smith or the quarterbacks in this one, but both teams could push 200 yards on the ground with their stable of backs. As long as the winds aren't too bad (and they are not expected to be too violent, but this is The Meadowlands) both kickers should also be effective. Both defenses have the ability to make big plays as well which should help to put points on the scoreboard, and if either team trails too much they have the ability to throw enough to score quickly. The game will be a closely fought, 24-17 type of game.
New York Jets (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks - (1 star)
Brett Favre gets to say goodbye (again) to Mike Holmgren is his final home game as the head coach in Seattle. The Jets desperately need this game to hold serve and prep for their clash with Miami next Sunday (Night?). Thomas Jones will be the deciding factor as he should rack up tons of yards on the ground and score yet again, and Leon Washington will continue to be one of the best secondary backs in the NFL. Seattle has played well with Seneca Wallace under center and both Deion Branch and John Carlson can produce, but I don't think it will be enough. Jets 27-20.
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (UNDER 44) - (1 star)
Oakland has one question on their mind – is it over yet? Two games to go and their starting receivers this week are Johnny Lee Higgins and Chaz Schilens. Yikes. The only possible ray of hope is if Darren McFadden can show any signs of promise for next year. Tom Cable would change the channel if he could. Houston's Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson will have field days. Houston wins this one big, but the under here is simply because I don't think Oakland gets 10 points. Houston 31-7.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Washington Redskins - (2 stars)
Normally when these two NFC East teams get together it is a close and hard-fought game. Right now, this one is far from normal. The Redskins are mailing it in at 7-7 and without a healthy Clinton Portis. Jason Campbell is complaining of being "tired" and the disappointment has spread to the fan base with this team. There will be many empty seats in Landover this week at FedEx Field as it is going to be cold and wet and miserable for a late kickoff. Eagles fans who want tickets to this game won't have trouble getting them at all, so there goes any real semblance of a home field advantage. Bottom line is that Philly has much more to play for and that Washington really doesn't (despite not being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet). Eagles should win this one handily, 34-13.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (OVER 42.5) - (2 stars)
Atlanta and Tampa Bay was a low scoring affair last week that headed into overtime, but that's a different defense than what the Falcons will see on Sunday. Minnesota is missing Pat Williams and has a soft secondary, which should have Roddy White and Matt Ryan salivating. Michael Turner should also put up 100+ yards but Adrian Peterson wants that rushing title and should match or beat Turner's production. I see both teams racking up 20+ points and it will take 24 to win this one, so that gives me 24-20 as the worst case – that tells me to go "over" here. Plus both kickers are pretty good, which certainly helps.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Detroit Lions - (3 stars)
News flash – Detroit's pretty bad. Not as bad as they were on Thanksgiving (which is probably the first and last time many saw the Lions this year), but they're still struggling. Dan Orlovsky actually had the Lions tied in the fourth quarter but the Colts were just too much when they kicked it up a notch. Detroit has two weapons on offense – Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith. Both of them could certainly find the end zone on Sunday, but the Detriot defense (or should I say "etroit") can't stop Pierre Thomas or Drew Brees. Brees is talking about his assault on Marino's yardage record and is just over 750 yards away with two games left. Look for Thomas to top 150 total yards and Brees to push 400 as New Orleans plays "fast break football" all day. The Saints don't have anything to play for other than stats, so look for Detroit to fall behind early and not be able to keep up at all. New Orleans 45, Detroit 27.
Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Lastly, the record:
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