Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Okay, I'll just come out and say what I'm thinking these days.
Eddie Royal and Jay Cutler are overrated right now.
This applies to what I'm seeing in trade activity for Royal (just insane what he is fetching right now, IMHO).
Here me out.
First of all, as many of you might already know, I only follow a few college teams - but one of them is Virginia Tech. That led me down the path of some great, great rookies the past 1-2 years including Royal. I love what the kid can do. But right now, everyone is expecting the world from him and upside to come.
Sorry, I don't think it will.
Just look at the facts:
Denver threw a TON last year. Cutler threw over 600 times last year, well over 35 times a game. Only Drew Brees had more attempts in 2008. Do you have any idea how many that is? Well, the list of players with over 600 pass attempts since 1960 stops after 20 entries - that under one per year. "But we're in the passing era", you might say. Okay - since 2002 only 8 QBs have reached 600 attempts - or just over one per year.
Brandon Marshall missed one game and Tony Scheffler missed two. Minor points, certainly - but Eddie Royal is 2nd or 3rd option if both are healthy.
Denver ran the ball less than 320 times last year (RBs). This is what happens when you have to throw all the time. Do you really expect the Broncos not to try and get more balance in 2009 and beyond?
Denver's defense was terrible last year. They gave up 448 points, third worst behind Detroit and the Rams. They had to throw and throw and throw some more to try and keep up and win 37-34 type games.
Okay - enough of the circumstantial evidence - what's wrong with Eddie Royal himself? Again, I like him, but his numbers were well above average in catch-to-target numbers. He had 129 targets and snagged 91. That's over 70% efficiency, which speaks well of his hands (as I mentioned earlier) but the odds are against him to repeat that number. Only 3 WRs had at least 80 targets and over 70% catch efficiency - Royal, Anquan Boldin and Wes Welker. Only Boldin topped 11 yards per catch and he only did it by 0.7 yards. Sure there's a balance between YPC and reception percentage (guys that run deep catch fewer passes and vice versa) but that tells you the type of receiver that Royal really is - a short catch guy like Wes Welker in that scheme. Remember that he caught 91 balls but for only 980 yards.
Speaking of schemes, there's a new coaching staff in Denver. The Broncos could throw a ton again with Josh McDaniel coming from New England, but there is no guarantee.
Bottom line for me is that while I like Royal, I'd struggle to justify him being any higher than a Top 15 wideout next year. He's the 2nd target on the team for certain and Denver had to throw to compete more often than not with limitations at RB and a weak defense. He isn't a deep route guy and he had an inordinate number of targets for a WR2 and caught more than his fair share of those chances - but for under 11 yards each on average.Just be forewarned before going hard after Eddie Royal for your team and temper your expectations. 2008 might have been his peak year for the next 2-3 seasons, if not longer.
As for Cutler - the same reasoning holds true to his valuation. Don't expect a repeat of 2008 numbers if Denver tries to improve. The team may get better if Cutler does less in 09 and beyond.
Eddie Royal and Jay Cutler are overrated right now.
This applies to what I'm seeing in trade activity for Royal (just insane what he is fetching right now, IMHO).
Here me out.
First of all, as many of you might already know, I only follow a few college teams - but one of them is Virginia Tech. That led me down the path of some great, great rookies the past 1-2 years including Royal. I love what the kid can do. But right now, everyone is expecting the world from him and upside to come.
Sorry, I don't think it will.
Just look at the facts:
Denver threw a TON last year. Cutler threw over 600 times last year, well over 35 times a game. Only Drew Brees had more attempts in 2008. Do you have any idea how many that is? Well, the list of players with over 600 pass attempts since 1960 stops after 20 entries - that under one per year. "But we're in the passing era", you might say. Okay - since 2002 only 8 QBs have reached 600 attempts - or just over one per year.
Brandon Marshall missed one game and Tony Scheffler missed two. Minor points, certainly - but Eddie Royal is 2nd or 3rd option if both are healthy.
Denver ran the ball less than 320 times last year (RBs). This is what happens when you have to throw all the time. Do you really expect the Broncos not to try and get more balance in 2009 and beyond?
Denver's defense was terrible last year. They gave up 448 points, third worst behind Detroit and the Rams. They had to throw and throw and throw some more to try and keep up and win 37-34 type games.
Okay - enough of the circumstantial evidence - what's wrong with Eddie Royal himself? Again, I like him, but his numbers were well above average in catch-to-target numbers. He had 129 targets and snagged 91. That's over 70% efficiency, which speaks well of his hands (as I mentioned earlier) but the odds are against him to repeat that number. Only 3 WRs had at least 80 targets and over 70% catch efficiency - Royal, Anquan Boldin and Wes Welker. Only Boldin topped 11 yards per catch and he only did it by 0.7 yards. Sure there's a balance between YPC and reception percentage (guys that run deep catch fewer passes and vice versa) but that tells you the type of receiver that Royal really is - a short catch guy like Wes Welker in that scheme. Remember that he caught 91 balls but for only 980 yards.
Speaking of schemes, there's a new coaching staff in Denver. The Broncos could throw a ton again with Josh McDaniel coming from New England, but there is no guarantee.
Bottom line for me is that while I like Royal, I'd struggle to justify him being any higher than a Top 15 wideout next year. He's the 2nd target on the team for certain and Denver had to throw to compete more often than not with limitations at RB and a weak defense. He isn't a deep route guy and he had an inordinate number of targets for a WR2 and caught more than his fair share of those chances - but for under 11 yards each on average.Just be forewarned before going hard after Eddie Royal for your team and temper your expectations. 2008 might have been his peak year for the next 2-3 seasons, if not longer.
As for Cutler - the same reasoning holds true to his valuation. Don't expect a repeat of 2008 numbers if Denver tries to improve. The team may get better if Cutler does less in 09 and beyond.
enver will try to balance the offense.Key word being try.If he nets 80 receptions, I will be satisfied.With 80 receptions, there is a chance he can match his numbers from 08, if he is able to get in the endzone more then the 5 times he got in last year.Now with Daniels as the HC, Royal will more so be compared to Welker. Which is a fair comparison.Being #2 on a good passing team can land you in the top 10 easily, as we have seen in the past (Wayne, Housh, Easy Ed etc...)I can see the receptions go down, but not to hard for the TD's to go up (from 5).The upside is there, the targets will be there, the DC will be on Marshall and as you mentioned "the hands".I will take my chances any day with a WR that has good hands, as opposed to speed, strength, or height.Hands and route running gains instant confidence from your QB.I can see 81 rec, 1100 yds 8 TD.Not a STUD, but a great #2/3 WR on any team that should provide consistent numbers each week.
Just looking at the WSL mocks, in which I think Braylon will be lesser valued than in a dynasty, Braylon was drafted as:
