EBF
Footballguy
A few quick thoughts before I post the rankings:
- I think the strength of this class is at WR, but I tried to factor in the natural bias towards RBs. They almost always hold more value after 1-2 seasons than the WRs. So even though this WR class is better than this RB class, the top 10 is still pretty RB-heavy.
- This class is pretty strong through the first round, but the depth is weak. I struggled to find 24 guys that I'd even want on my FF team. I don't think we're going to see solid players available in the third round of rookie drafts like we did last season.
- I don't spend much time scouting QBs, so most of what you'll read about them here was compiled from other scouting reports. My attitude towards QBs is to avoid them until they become obvious value. They're very unpredictable and they don't offer great return on your investment even when they pan out.
- These rankings are meant for PPR leagues.
First Tier
1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
Positives: Lightning quick with excellent agility. Has the ability to make people miss and pick up extra yardage. Runs low with good balance and falls forward. Good receiver who should catch plenty of passes at the next level. Productive player. The backbone of his team’s offense for the past two seasons. Excelled despite being the sole focus of opposing defenses.
Negatives: Lacks any semblance of power and collapses like a broken chair when he gets hit. Looks like he has some room to add weight, but is acutely undersized. Relies too much on juke moves that might not be as effective against pro defense (dances too much). Has some maturity/character question marks.
Overall: McCoy is never going to be a 350+ carry warhorse, but he offers a lot of potential as a Brian Westbrook type. He has outstanding quickness and open field moves. If he goes to a team willing to make him the starter, he has tremendous potential in PPR leagues.
NFL Comparison: Reggie Bush (-speed, +jukes)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMWaQATEPTA...re=channel_page
2. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Positives: Ultra productive player with a great combination of physical ability and football skills. Long arms and natural hands. Good upper body strength and leverage to overpower defensive backs. Dangerous runner after the catch, using his quickness to pick up extra yardage (he’s almost like a RB when he gets the ball). Good initial burst. Athletic.
Negatives: Lacks the second gear to beat cornerbacks downfield. Though he has good quickness, it would be a stretch to call him explosive and he might have some trouble separating from pro corners. Has some minor durability question marks to answer. His playing style exposes him to more hits than the average WR. Played in a friendly scheme that inflated his stats.
Overall: Crabtree should develop into a reliable starting WR who does the dirty work underneath, moves the chains, and picks up yardage after the catch. People obsess over his lack of speed, but speed isn’t his game. He’s a possession WR who figures to have a high reception total and low yards-per-catch average at the next level. He’s not as good as Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson, but he appears to have plenty of talent to rack up multiple 1000+ yard seasons.
NFL Comparison: Anquan Boldin (-strength, +wingspan)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ySmg1f8ZSM...re=channel_page
3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Positives: Jack of all trades with no glaring weaknesses in his game. Adequate size with a low center of gravity. Good quickness and power. Smooth runner with quality instincts. Though he lacks great pure speed, he has excellent acceleration and gets upfield quickly. Highly productive in one of the top conferences in college football. Competitive.
Negatives: Marginal speed. Doesn’t have that extra gear to run away from defenses. Combine numbers suggest that he’s a mediocre athlete for a top pro RB prospect. Doesn’t have the special physical ability needed to dominate.
Overall: There are RBs in this draft with more upside than Moreno, but he looks like a pretty safe bet to become a productive pro starter and a quality RB2 for FF teams. He's definitely a notch below the elite RBs of recent draft classes.
NFL Comparison: Marshawn Lynch (-power)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ue6lflyI6wk...feature=channel
4. Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa
Positives: Productive back with a great build for the position. Low center of gravity with excellent lower body strength. Has good feet. North-south runner who gets upfield, takes what the defense gives him, and finishes runs. Meat-and-potatoes type who grinds out yards. Rushed for over 100 yards in every game last season and carried the Iowa offense on his back.
Negatives: Not explosive. Lacks speed. Not a big play threat. Limited ability as a receiver. Had academic issues in college, raising concerns about his character. One year wonder who will need to show that he can stay focused.
Overall: Shonn Greene is an excellent RB prospect whose no-nonsense style should translate well to the pro game. He’ll probably never be the type of dominant superstar who carries your FF team to a title, but he’s a low risk workhorse back who can step in and handle 300+ carries immediately.
NFL Comparison: Rudi Johnson
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLlfOIgmKqk...re=channel_page
5. Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Positives: Phenomenal athlete whose talent jumps off the screen. Big play threat. Short stride with good speed and quickness. Fluid. Has the potential to develop into a very good route runner. Despite being used in a gimmicky hybrid role at Florida, I think he shows the inherent receiving skills that you look for from a WR prospect. Catches the ball cleanly and shows good body control.
Negatives: A little bit of an unknown due to his college usage. Sturdy build with excellent strength for his size, but he’s still had some injury problems.
Overall: Harvin is a high quality prospect who looks like a very safe bet to develop into a good NFL player. Some people are worried about the way he was used in college, but he has the full complement of physical gifts and football skills needed to make the jump to the pro game. I think he fits in nicely as a starting WR whose speed and explosion make him a constant threat.
NFL Comparison: Santana Moss
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34--XTjboDI...re=channel_page
6. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Positives: Well-proportioned runner with a smooth stride and dangerous long speed. Very athletic. Shows sound natural receiving skills, catching the ball cleanly with his hands. Excellent production in the passing game. It’s rare that you see a team build its attack around a WR, but Missouri’s offense seemed to flow through Maclin.
Negatives: A little bit of a long strider. Can he separate out of breaks? Missouri system made him hard to evaluate because you didn’t see him running many of the streaks, posts, and deep routes that he’ll be asked to run in the NFL. Can he win a jump ball? Can he track the deep pass?
Overall: Maclin is an explosive vertical receiver whose long speed and athletic ability will make him an enticing option in the top half of the NFL draft. He has a little bit of the long strider disease that plagues Ted Ginn and Troy Williamson (built up speed with trouble separating out of breaks), but he has a better build and reliable hands. I think he’s clearly a cut above those two guys and I think he fits in nicely as a downfield threat in the mold of Greg Jennings. He’ll need a little seasoning to improve his route running, but I think the raw ability is there.
NFL Comparison: Greg Jennings
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA619-10IIM...re=channel_page
7. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Positives: Burner with rare deep speed. Even at the NFL level, he’ll be faster than most cornerbacks. Tall WR with long arms and good leg strength. Adequate lateral quickness. Shows the ability to high point the ball and catch it cleanly with his hands. Very high upside. Pro Bowl potential.
Negatives: Mediocre production compared to other top wideouts in the draft. Looks like a superstar on paper, but doesn’t always show up on gameday. A bit of a longstrider who gathers in and out of breaks. Enigmatic.
Overall: Heyward-Bey is an appealing prospect because of his rare physical skills. He’s not the most polished receiver in this draft and his college statistics are quite unimpressive, but some of that may have been due to misuse. He shows tremendous promise as a WR and doesn’t deserve the Troy Williamson comparisons. Nevertheless, you don’t quite know what you’re getting with him. He might be great or he might be a mediocre pro. Boom or bust pick.
NFL Comparison: Donte Stallworth (+size)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyjaBWuo4zA
8. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Positives: At his best, Wells is a dominant runner who makes big plays and takes over games. Has good speed. Not really a juker, but has the ability to put his foot in the ground and change directions. Strong upper body to fend off tacklers and deliver punishment.
Negatives: Atypical build with a high center of gravity and long legs. Capable of running hard when he’s able to square up and use his upper body strength, but because of the way he’s built, he doesn’t really have great leg drive and he usually goes down pretty easily when defenders get a good shot on his lower body. Missed some time with minor injuries. Toughness and desire are major question marks.
Overall: Wells is a boom-or-bust pick with a big upside and a big downside. If he pans out people will say you should’ve seen it coming because he’s a good athlete and he was so dominant in college. If he busts, people will say you should’ve seen it coming because he’s a big back with poor lower body strength and no heart. The reality is that it’s impossible to know which version of Chris Wells we’ll see in the NFL. He’s a gamble.
NFL Comparison: Deuce McAllister (-toughness, -lower body strength)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKYeleDrCaQ...re=channel_page
Second Tier
9. Donald Brown, RB, UConn
Positives: Highly productive back with rare combine numbers that place him alongside the league’s elite runners. Low center of gravity with most of the weight concentrated in his thighs. Springy. Loose hips with excellent quickness and cutting skills. Seamlessly changes directions and shows good vision to adjust. Has a nice initial burst. Solid potential as a receiver.
Negatives: Not a powerful runner who punishes defenders. Has decent leg drive because his weight is distributed well, but he’s light for a bell cow back and he lacks the pure bulk to push the pile. Sharp initial burst, but mediocre long speed. Doesn’t really pop off the screen as a “wow” player despite his measurables and his achievements.
Overall: I initially thought Brown was an overachiever with marginal computer numbers, but his excellent performance at the combine shattered that notion. Athletically, Brown is right up there with some of the best backs in the game. He’s also an accomplished player who translates his raw talent into success on the football field. At the same time, he’s undersized for a three down back and he lacks the juice of an elite small back like Chris Johnson. I think he offers potential in a creative system that uses him in a Tiki Barber like role, but he’s not a classic franchise back who will dominate regardless of where he lands. May take time to find his niche and may be relegated to a committee or backup role.
NFL Comparison: Felix Jones
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TBnZ7_60GY
10. Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
Positives: Good combination of size and athletic ability. Fluid player who picks up yards after the catch. Flashes good hands and coordination. Improved every year in college and simply dominated the competition at times in his final season.
Negatives: A half a step slow off the line and doesn’t have blazing deep speed. Athletic, but plays a little bit hesitant at times and will dance too much.
Overall: Nicks has quietly climbed up the charts over the past six months. He’s not an overwhelming physical specimen, but he’s a quality athlete who looks like he belongs in the NFL. I like his chances of developing into a solid, but unspectacular starter.
NFL Comparison: Jerricho Cotchery
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWakmo3_m2s...re=channel_page
11. Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
Positives: Big-bodied WR with good strength and surprising mobility. Runs better than you might expect and shows some quickness. Classic power WR who manhandles DBs and gains yards after the catch with tough running. Productive college player with two straight 1200+ yard seasons under his belt.
Negatives: Inconsistent hands. Will body catch. Lacks sustained speed and won’t pull away from anyone. Not a deep threat or a receiver who can challenge vertically. A little bit lighter than you hope for given his height, but he looks like he has room to add weight.
Overall: Britt is a well-built possession WR who should develop into a quality starter at the pro level. He’ll have to keep working to fine tune his game and improve his consistency, but he has a lot of talent and could eventually develop into a WR2-WR3 for FF teams. He may be better suited to a complementary WR2 role in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Muhsin Muhammad
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a98USWn8dG0
12. Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Positives: Sturdy QB with a wealth of experience and a very live arm. Threw almost 1000 passes over the past three seasons. Improved every year. Good field vision and shows the ability to go through his progressions and find the open receiver. Can make all the throws.
Negatives: Generally makes good decisions, but is prone to turnovers (double digit INTs every season). Inconsistent accuracy. Some scouting reports cite sloppy footwork.
Overall: Stafford appears to be a quality first round QB prospect with the potential to develop into a franchise passer. He didn’t really have the superstar career that you might have expected from a top 10 QB in a major program stocked with talent, but the scouts like his potential and he has a chance to be successful. Worth a look once the elite WRs and RBs are gone.
NFL Comparison: Jay Cutler
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l0OIqYkwz0
13. Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Positives: Good mobility and arm strength. Sees the field well and delivers the ball on time. When he gets in the zone, he’s capable of taking over games. By all accounts he’s a hard worker who takes his job seriously.
Negatives: Streaky passer who runs hot and cold. Very inexperienced. Made a questionable decision to enter the NFL draft after only one season of significant work in college. Will almost certainly have to sit on the sidelines for a season or two before he’s ready to lead a pro offense. Durability is a question mark. Played with a great supporting cast that made his job easier.
Overall: You can’t blame Sanchez for cashing in on his opportunity given the fact that he’ll almost certainly be one of the top 2 QBs drafted. At the same time, QBs are always difficult to project to the next level and you can’t be too excited about someone who’s so inexperienced. Assuming he pans out, it will probably be years before Sanchez is ready to help your FF team. There’s value here because you know he’ll eventually get a shot to start, but I wouldn’t take him unless all of the good WRs and RBs were gone.
NFL Comparison: David Garrard
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNwVfPNhYtI...feature=related
Third Tier
14. Jarett Dillard, WR, Rice
Positives: Natural football player with a lot of innate ability. Great body control and hands. Playmaker. Elite leaping ability and long arms makes him a jump ball threat despite his height. Lacks ideal speed, but runs crisp routes and gets separation. Massively productive. NCAA record holder in TD catches. 1,000+ yards three seasons in a row.
Negatives: Disappointing pure speed for a smaller receiver. Not explosive off the line and doesn’t have that extra juice to blow by people or make big plays after the catch. Lacks strength and has a thin, lanky frame.
Overall: You hate to underestimate Dillard because he’s a phenomenal football player who dominated the competition in college. At the same time, it’s tough to say exactly where he fits in at the NFL level. He’s not really a slot WR and he doesn’t have the pure speed you hope for from a 190 pound vertical WR. I don’t think he’s a lock for stardom, but he has a lot of things going in his favor and he’s a viable pick once the elite WR prospects are off the board.
NFL Comparison: Isaac Bruce (-burst)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtojPueX0_w
15. Kory Sheets, RB, Purdue
Positives: Good athlete with a nice burst. Very fluid. Loose hips and excellent cutting skills (open field moves reminiscent of Marshawn Lynch). Productive throughout his entire college career. Contributes in the passing game and offers nice potential as a receiver. Really helped himself at the combine, where he put up excellent marks in several drills.
Negatives: Well-proportioned, but lacks conventional size. A little bit of a tweener. Doesn’t have the sheer explosiveness of a speed back, but doesn’t have the bulk of a workhorse. It’s hard to envision exactly how an NFL team will use him.
Overall: Sheets is a good player. I don’t know if he has the overall package needed to be a starter at the next level, but he’s a viable pick once the top backs are off the board. If he lands on a team with an immediate opportunity available, put him on your sleeper list.
NFL Comparison: Marshawn Lynch (-size, -power)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gMwSSLrzSg
16. Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
Positives: Athletic WR who was just coming into his own when he suffered a season-ending injury. Quick and fluid with great potential as a route runner. Excellent return man.
Negatives: Suffered a torn ACL and MCL last season, meaning he might not be back to full speed until 2010. Doesn’t have great size or speed. More of a complementary type of WR than a guy who’s going to seize a WR1 spot and become the backbone of a passing game.
Overall: It’s hard to get a read on Tate because he got hurt right as he was breaking out. I liked what I saw in limited action. He’s a fluid player who resembles a number of successful NFL WRs in terms of body type and playing style. I wouldn’t burn a high pick on him, but he makes a nice sleeper choice once the cupboard starts getting bare in your drafts.
NFL Comparison: Chad Johnson (-speed, -burst)
Evidence:
21. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Georgia
Positives: Strong WR who plays faster than his timed speed. Athletic with good run-after-the-catch skills. Lots of upside. Contributed throughout his college career and had a nice senior season.
Negatives: Inconsistent hands. Good downfield speed, but needs work as a route runner. Enigmatic player who will dominate one week and disappear the next.
Overall: Massaquoi is a project who needs to refine his game and improve his focus, but he has the raw physical ability to develop into a starter in the NFL. He gets the nod here over some more accomplished WRs because of his upside. However, there’s a very realistic possibility that he’ll never put it all together.
NFL Comparison: Marty Booker
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYACbx6SEZI
22. Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State
Positives: Tall with excellent hands. Made a number of big catches for the Buckeyes over the past two seasons. Polished player who does the little things well and gets the most out of his physical ability. Comes from an NFL family. Really helped himself at the combine, performing better than expected in drills.
Negatives: Neither quick nor fast. Not a threat after the catch. Really just a catch-and-fall WR with very limited upside.
Overall: What you see is what you get with Robiskie. He’s a solid player and he has decent computer numbers on paper, but he’s a very middling talent who doesn’t have the obvious physical gifts needed to rise above mediocrity. I see him as a backup type or a WR2 at best in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Michael Jenkins
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urUgs3FeiGc
23. Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
Positives: A physical specimen with the prototypical tools that pro scouts covet. Big frame and a strong arm. Threw a lot of passes in college and improved every season.
Negatives: Raw. Will stare down his primary receiver. Doesn’t consistently show good timing and will release the ball late. He can get away with that in college, but it might cause problems at the next level. Overall accuracy is mediocre.
Overall: Freeman is a project who will be drafted high on the basis of his potential. He’s pretty rough around the edges, but some team will fall in love with his upside and tell themselves they can mold him into a complete passer. He has the ability to develop into a good FF QB in the right situation, but there’s nothing here that screams superstar. I thin you can get players like this cheaper. What’s nice about Freeman is that you know he’ll be given a shot to start eventually, so you can always stash him and trade him later if you don’t like what you see.
NFL Comparison: Jason Campbell
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoDjfUS7YH0
24. Deon Butler, WR, Penn State
Positives: Productive player who put up good reception totals throughout his career. Effective safety valve with excellent inherent WR skills. Good hands and makes the circus catch. Quick player who knows how to run routes and seems to have a great sense for the open spots on the field. Stood out at the Shrine Game and surprised with a good 40 time at the combine.
Negatives: Slight build with limited strength. Despite his 40 time, he’s more of an underneath WR than a deep threat. Good route runner, but not particularly dangerous after the catch.
Overall: A former walk-on, Butler has made a habit of defying expectations. He’s a solid football player who will probably carve out a niche in the NFL, but his upside is limited and he’ll only have significant FF value if he lands in a perfect situation.
NFL Comparison: Steve Breaston
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urUgs3FeiGc
- I think the strength of this class is at WR, but I tried to factor in the natural bias towards RBs. They almost always hold more value after 1-2 seasons than the WRs. So even though this WR class is better than this RB class, the top 10 is still pretty RB-heavy.
- This class is pretty strong through the first round, but the depth is weak. I struggled to find 24 guys that I'd even want on my FF team. I don't think we're going to see solid players available in the third round of rookie drafts like we did last season.
- I don't spend much time scouting QBs, so most of what you'll read about them here was compiled from other scouting reports. My attitude towards QBs is to avoid them until they become obvious value. They're very unpredictable and they don't offer great return on your investment even when they pan out.
- These rankings are meant for PPR leagues.
First Tier
1. LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh
Positives: Lightning quick with excellent agility. Has the ability to make people miss and pick up extra yardage. Runs low with good balance and falls forward. Good receiver who should catch plenty of passes at the next level. Productive player. The backbone of his team’s offense for the past two seasons. Excelled despite being the sole focus of opposing defenses.
Negatives: Lacks any semblance of power and collapses like a broken chair when he gets hit. Looks like he has some room to add weight, but is acutely undersized. Relies too much on juke moves that might not be as effective against pro defense (dances too much). Has some maturity/character question marks.
Overall: McCoy is never going to be a 350+ carry warhorse, but he offers a lot of potential as a Brian Westbrook type. He has outstanding quickness and open field moves. If he goes to a team willing to make him the starter, he has tremendous potential in PPR leagues.
NFL Comparison: Reggie Bush (-speed, +jukes)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMWaQATEPTA...re=channel_page
2. Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Positives: Ultra productive player with a great combination of physical ability and football skills. Long arms and natural hands. Good upper body strength and leverage to overpower defensive backs. Dangerous runner after the catch, using his quickness to pick up extra yardage (he’s almost like a RB when he gets the ball). Good initial burst. Athletic.
Negatives: Lacks the second gear to beat cornerbacks downfield. Though he has good quickness, it would be a stretch to call him explosive and he might have some trouble separating from pro corners. Has some minor durability question marks to answer. His playing style exposes him to more hits than the average WR. Played in a friendly scheme that inflated his stats.
Overall: Crabtree should develop into a reliable starting WR who does the dirty work underneath, moves the chains, and picks up yardage after the catch. People obsess over his lack of speed, but speed isn’t his game. He’s a possession WR who figures to have a high reception total and low yards-per-catch average at the next level. He’s not as good as Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson, but he appears to have plenty of talent to rack up multiple 1000+ yard seasons.
NFL Comparison: Anquan Boldin (-strength, +wingspan)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ySmg1f8ZSM...re=channel_page
3. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Positives: Jack of all trades with no glaring weaknesses in his game. Adequate size with a low center of gravity. Good quickness and power. Smooth runner with quality instincts. Though he lacks great pure speed, he has excellent acceleration and gets upfield quickly. Highly productive in one of the top conferences in college football. Competitive.
Negatives: Marginal speed. Doesn’t have that extra gear to run away from defenses. Combine numbers suggest that he’s a mediocre athlete for a top pro RB prospect. Doesn’t have the special physical ability needed to dominate.
Overall: There are RBs in this draft with more upside than Moreno, but he looks like a pretty safe bet to become a productive pro starter and a quality RB2 for FF teams. He's definitely a notch below the elite RBs of recent draft classes.
NFL Comparison: Marshawn Lynch (-power)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ue6lflyI6wk...feature=channel
4. Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa
Positives: Productive back with a great build for the position. Low center of gravity with excellent lower body strength. Has good feet. North-south runner who gets upfield, takes what the defense gives him, and finishes runs. Meat-and-potatoes type who grinds out yards. Rushed for over 100 yards in every game last season and carried the Iowa offense on his back.
Negatives: Not explosive. Lacks speed. Not a big play threat. Limited ability as a receiver. Had academic issues in college, raising concerns about his character. One year wonder who will need to show that he can stay focused.
Overall: Shonn Greene is an excellent RB prospect whose no-nonsense style should translate well to the pro game. He’ll probably never be the type of dominant superstar who carries your FF team to a title, but he’s a low risk workhorse back who can step in and handle 300+ carries immediately.
NFL Comparison: Rudi Johnson
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLlfOIgmKqk...re=channel_page
5. Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Positives: Phenomenal athlete whose talent jumps off the screen. Big play threat. Short stride with good speed and quickness. Fluid. Has the potential to develop into a very good route runner. Despite being used in a gimmicky hybrid role at Florida, I think he shows the inherent receiving skills that you look for from a WR prospect. Catches the ball cleanly and shows good body control.
Negatives: A little bit of an unknown due to his college usage. Sturdy build with excellent strength for his size, but he’s still had some injury problems.
Overall: Harvin is a high quality prospect who looks like a very safe bet to develop into a good NFL player. Some people are worried about the way he was used in college, but he has the full complement of physical gifts and football skills needed to make the jump to the pro game. I think he fits in nicely as a starting WR whose speed and explosion make him a constant threat.
NFL Comparison: Santana Moss
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34--XTjboDI...re=channel_page
6. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Positives: Well-proportioned runner with a smooth stride and dangerous long speed. Very athletic. Shows sound natural receiving skills, catching the ball cleanly with his hands. Excellent production in the passing game. It’s rare that you see a team build its attack around a WR, but Missouri’s offense seemed to flow through Maclin.
Negatives: A little bit of a long strider. Can he separate out of breaks? Missouri system made him hard to evaluate because you didn’t see him running many of the streaks, posts, and deep routes that he’ll be asked to run in the NFL. Can he win a jump ball? Can he track the deep pass?
Overall: Maclin is an explosive vertical receiver whose long speed and athletic ability will make him an enticing option in the top half of the NFL draft. He has a little bit of the long strider disease that plagues Ted Ginn and Troy Williamson (built up speed with trouble separating out of breaks), but he has a better build and reliable hands. I think he’s clearly a cut above those two guys and I think he fits in nicely as a downfield threat in the mold of Greg Jennings. He’ll need a little seasoning to improve his route running, but I think the raw ability is there.
NFL Comparison: Greg Jennings
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA619-10IIM...re=channel_page
7. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Positives: Burner with rare deep speed. Even at the NFL level, he’ll be faster than most cornerbacks. Tall WR with long arms and good leg strength. Adequate lateral quickness. Shows the ability to high point the ball and catch it cleanly with his hands. Very high upside. Pro Bowl potential.
Negatives: Mediocre production compared to other top wideouts in the draft. Looks like a superstar on paper, but doesn’t always show up on gameday. A bit of a longstrider who gathers in and out of breaks. Enigmatic.
Overall: Heyward-Bey is an appealing prospect because of his rare physical skills. He’s not the most polished receiver in this draft and his college statistics are quite unimpressive, but some of that may have been due to misuse. He shows tremendous promise as a WR and doesn’t deserve the Troy Williamson comparisons. Nevertheless, you don’t quite know what you’re getting with him. He might be great or he might be a mediocre pro. Boom or bust pick.
NFL Comparison: Donte Stallworth (+size)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyjaBWuo4zA
8. Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Positives: At his best, Wells is a dominant runner who makes big plays and takes over games. Has good speed. Not really a juker, but has the ability to put his foot in the ground and change directions. Strong upper body to fend off tacklers and deliver punishment.
Negatives: Atypical build with a high center of gravity and long legs. Capable of running hard when he’s able to square up and use his upper body strength, but because of the way he’s built, he doesn’t really have great leg drive and he usually goes down pretty easily when defenders get a good shot on his lower body. Missed some time with minor injuries. Toughness and desire are major question marks.
Overall: Wells is a boom-or-bust pick with a big upside and a big downside. If he pans out people will say you should’ve seen it coming because he’s a good athlete and he was so dominant in college. If he busts, people will say you should’ve seen it coming because he’s a big back with poor lower body strength and no heart. The reality is that it’s impossible to know which version of Chris Wells we’ll see in the NFL. He’s a gamble.
NFL Comparison: Deuce McAllister (-toughness, -lower body strength)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKYeleDrCaQ...re=channel_page
Second Tier
9. Donald Brown, RB, UConn
Positives: Highly productive back with rare combine numbers that place him alongside the league’s elite runners. Low center of gravity with most of the weight concentrated in his thighs. Springy. Loose hips with excellent quickness and cutting skills. Seamlessly changes directions and shows good vision to adjust. Has a nice initial burst. Solid potential as a receiver.
Negatives: Not a powerful runner who punishes defenders. Has decent leg drive because his weight is distributed well, but he’s light for a bell cow back and he lacks the pure bulk to push the pile. Sharp initial burst, but mediocre long speed. Doesn’t really pop off the screen as a “wow” player despite his measurables and his achievements.
Overall: I initially thought Brown was an overachiever with marginal computer numbers, but his excellent performance at the combine shattered that notion. Athletically, Brown is right up there with some of the best backs in the game. He’s also an accomplished player who translates his raw talent into success on the football field. At the same time, he’s undersized for a three down back and he lacks the juice of an elite small back like Chris Johnson. I think he offers potential in a creative system that uses him in a Tiki Barber like role, but he’s not a classic franchise back who will dominate regardless of where he lands. May take time to find his niche and may be relegated to a committee or backup role.
NFL Comparison: Felix Jones
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TBnZ7_60GY
10. Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina
Positives: Good combination of size and athletic ability. Fluid player who picks up yards after the catch. Flashes good hands and coordination. Improved every year in college and simply dominated the competition at times in his final season.
Negatives: A half a step slow off the line and doesn’t have blazing deep speed. Athletic, but plays a little bit hesitant at times and will dance too much.
Overall: Nicks has quietly climbed up the charts over the past six months. He’s not an overwhelming physical specimen, but he’s a quality athlete who looks like he belongs in the NFL. I like his chances of developing into a solid, but unspectacular starter.
NFL Comparison: Jerricho Cotchery
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWakmo3_m2s...re=channel_page
11. Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers
Positives: Big-bodied WR with good strength and surprising mobility. Runs better than you might expect and shows some quickness. Classic power WR who manhandles DBs and gains yards after the catch with tough running. Productive college player with two straight 1200+ yard seasons under his belt.
Negatives: Inconsistent hands. Will body catch. Lacks sustained speed and won’t pull away from anyone. Not a deep threat or a receiver who can challenge vertically. A little bit lighter than you hope for given his height, but he looks like he has room to add weight.
Overall: Britt is a well-built possession WR who should develop into a quality starter at the pro level. He’ll have to keep working to fine tune his game and improve his consistency, but he has a lot of talent and could eventually develop into a WR2-WR3 for FF teams. He may be better suited to a complementary WR2 role in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Muhsin Muhammad
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a98USWn8dG0
12. Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia
Positives: Sturdy QB with a wealth of experience and a very live arm. Threw almost 1000 passes over the past three seasons. Improved every year. Good field vision and shows the ability to go through his progressions and find the open receiver. Can make all the throws.
Negatives: Generally makes good decisions, but is prone to turnovers (double digit INTs every season). Inconsistent accuracy. Some scouting reports cite sloppy footwork.
Overall: Stafford appears to be a quality first round QB prospect with the potential to develop into a franchise passer. He didn’t really have the superstar career that you might have expected from a top 10 QB in a major program stocked with talent, but the scouts like his potential and he has a chance to be successful. Worth a look once the elite WRs and RBs are gone.
NFL Comparison: Jay Cutler
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l0OIqYkwz0
13. Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Positives: Good mobility and arm strength. Sees the field well and delivers the ball on time. When he gets in the zone, he’s capable of taking over games. By all accounts he’s a hard worker who takes his job seriously.
Negatives: Streaky passer who runs hot and cold. Very inexperienced. Made a questionable decision to enter the NFL draft after only one season of significant work in college. Will almost certainly have to sit on the sidelines for a season or two before he’s ready to lead a pro offense. Durability is a question mark. Played with a great supporting cast that made his job easier.
Overall: You can’t blame Sanchez for cashing in on his opportunity given the fact that he’ll almost certainly be one of the top 2 QBs drafted. At the same time, QBs are always difficult to project to the next level and you can’t be too excited about someone who’s so inexperienced. Assuming he pans out, it will probably be years before Sanchez is ready to help your FF team. There’s value here because you know he’ll eventually get a shot to start, but I wouldn’t take him unless all of the good WRs and RBs were gone.
NFL Comparison: David Garrard
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNwVfPNhYtI...feature=related
Third Tier
14. Jarett Dillard, WR, Rice
Positives: Natural football player with a lot of innate ability. Great body control and hands. Playmaker. Elite leaping ability and long arms makes him a jump ball threat despite his height. Lacks ideal speed, but runs crisp routes and gets separation. Massively productive. NCAA record holder in TD catches. 1,000+ yards three seasons in a row.
Negatives: Disappointing pure speed for a smaller receiver. Not explosive off the line and doesn’t have that extra juice to blow by people or make big plays after the catch. Lacks strength and has a thin, lanky frame.
Overall: You hate to underestimate Dillard because he’s a phenomenal football player who dominated the competition in college. At the same time, it’s tough to say exactly where he fits in at the NFL level. He’s not really a slot WR and he doesn’t have the pure speed you hope for from a 190 pound vertical WR. I don’t think he’s a lock for stardom, but he has a lot of things going in his favor and he’s a viable pick once the elite WR prospects are off the board.
NFL Comparison: Isaac Bruce (-burst)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtojPueX0_w
15. Kory Sheets, RB, Purdue
Positives: Good athlete with a nice burst. Very fluid. Loose hips and excellent cutting skills (open field moves reminiscent of Marshawn Lynch). Productive throughout his entire college career. Contributes in the passing game and offers nice potential as a receiver. Really helped himself at the combine, where he put up excellent marks in several drills.
Negatives: Well-proportioned, but lacks conventional size. A little bit of a tweener. Doesn’t have the sheer explosiveness of a speed back, but doesn’t have the bulk of a workhorse. It’s hard to envision exactly how an NFL team will use him.
Overall: Sheets is a good player. I don’t know if he has the overall package needed to be a starter at the next level, but he’s a viable pick once the top backs are off the board. If he lands on a team with an immediate opportunity available, put him on your sleeper list.
NFL Comparison: Marshawn Lynch (-size, -power)
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gMwSSLrzSg
16. Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
Positives: Athletic WR who was just coming into his own when he suffered a season-ending injury. Quick and fluid with great potential as a route runner. Excellent return man.
Negatives: Suffered a torn ACL and MCL last season, meaning he might not be back to full speed until 2010. Doesn’t have great size or speed. More of a complementary type of WR than a guy who’s going to seize a WR1 spot and become the backbone of a passing game.
Overall: It’s hard to get a read on Tate because he got hurt right as he was breaking out. I liked what I saw in limited action. He’s a fluid player who resembles a number of successful NFL WRs in terms of body type and playing style. I wouldn’t burn a high pick on him, but he makes a nice sleeper choice once the cupboard starts getting bare in your drafts.
NFL Comparison: Chad Johnson (-speed, -burst)
Evidence:
21. Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Georgia
Positives: Strong WR who plays faster than his timed speed. Athletic with good run-after-the-catch skills. Lots of upside. Contributed throughout his college career and had a nice senior season.
Negatives: Inconsistent hands. Good downfield speed, but needs work as a route runner. Enigmatic player who will dominate one week and disappear the next.
Overall: Massaquoi is a project who needs to refine his game and improve his focus, but he has the raw physical ability to develop into a starter in the NFL. He gets the nod here over some more accomplished WRs because of his upside. However, there’s a very realistic possibility that he’ll never put it all together.
NFL Comparison: Marty Booker
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYACbx6SEZI
22. Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State
Positives: Tall with excellent hands. Made a number of big catches for the Buckeyes over the past two seasons. Polished player who does the little things well and gets the most out of his physical ability. Comes from an NFL family. Really helped himself at the combine, performing better than expected in drills.
Negatives: Neither quick nor fast. Not a threat after the catch. Really just a catch-and-fall WR with very limited upside.
Overall: What you see is what you get with Robiskie. He’s a solid player and he has decent computer numbers on paper, but he’s a very middling talent who doesn’t have the obvious physical gifts needed to rise above mediocrity. I see him as a backup type or a WR2 at best in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Michael Jenkins
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urUgs3FeiGc
23. Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State
Positives: A physical specimen with the prototypical tools that pro scouts covet. Big frame and a strong arm. Threw a lot of passes in college and improved every season.
Negatives: Raw. Will stare down his primary receiver. Doesn’t consistently show good timing and will release the ball late. He can get away with that in college, but it might cause problems at the next level. Overall accuracy is mediocre.
Overall: Freeman is a project who will be drafted high on the basis of his potential. He’s pretty rough around the edges, but some team will fall in love with his upside and tell themselves they can mold him into a complete passer. He has the ability to develop into a good FF QB in the right situation, but there’s nothing here that screams superstar. I thin you can get players like this cheaper. What’s nice about Freeman is that you know he’ll be given a shot to start eventually, so you can always stash him and trade him later if you don’t like what you see.
NFL Comparison: Jason Campbell
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoDjfUS7YH0
24. Deon Butler, WR, Penn State
Positives: Productive player who put up good reception totals throughout his career. Effective safety valve with excellent inherent WR skills. Good hands and makes the circus catch. Quick player who knows how to run routes and seems to have a great sense for the open spots on the field. Stood out at the Shrine Game and surprised with a good 40 time at the combine.
Negatives: Slight build with limited strength. Despite his 40 time, he’s more of an underneath WR than a deep threat. Good route runner, but not particularly dangerous after the catch.
Overall: A former walk-on, Butler has made a habit of defying expectations. He’s a solid football player who will probably carve out a niche in the NFL, but his upside is limited and he’ll only have significant FF value if he lands in a perfect situation.
NFL Comparison: Steve Breaston
Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urUgs3FeiGc
It's like a competition now to see who can put him lower in their rankings.
Maclin=Jennings - Jennings was a polished, veteran-like route runner when he came out, Maclin is anything but. I would compare Maclin to a bigger Ted Ginn.Brown-Felix Jones - Brown has ridiculous lower body strength and he's a workhorse, but one without a 2nd gear. Jones has sick quicks and long speed. I see these guys as completely different. Brown is more like Gore or a regular sized Michael Turner - deep speed.Sanchez=Garrard - Garrard is massive, rugged, and creates after the play breaks down, Sanchez is more of a pocket passer, average size, decent, but not overwhelming arm strength. Sanchez is more like Rodgers or Schaub.Dillard=Bruce- These guys seem to have totally different body types and games to me - Dillard's strengths are his ups and his quicks, I cant recall Bruce making plays in the air or ankle breaking moves. Dillard is more like Lee Evans without the deep speed.I hate to nitpick compares, but these seem off to me, the kind of compares that give people who haven't seen the players the wrong impression.
Maclin=Jennings - Jennings was a polished, veteran-like route runner when he came out, Maclin is anything but. I would compare Maclin to a bigger Ted Ginn.Brown-Felix Jones - Brown has ridiculous lower body strength and he's a workhorse, but one without a 2nd gear. Jones has sick quicks and long speed. I see these guys as completely different. Brown is more like Gore or a regular sized Michael Turner - deep speed.Sanchez=Garrard - Garrard is massive, rugged, and creates after the play breaks down, Sanchez is more of a pocket passer, average size, decent, but not overwhelming arm strength. Sanchez is more like Rodgers or Schaub.Dillard=Bruce- These guys seem to have totally different body types and games to me - Dillard's strengths are his ups and his quicks, I cant recall Bruce making plays in the air or ankle breaking moves. Dillard is more like Lee Evans without the deep speed.I hate to nitpick compares, but these seem off to me, the kind of compares that give people who haven't seen the players the wrong impression.
Maclin=Jennings - Jennings was a polished, veteran-like route runner when he came out, Maclin is anything but. I would compare Maclin to a bigger Ted Ginn.
Maclin=Jennings - Jennings was a polished, veteran-like route runner when he came out, Maclin is anything but. I would compare Maclin to a bigger Ted Ginn.Brown-Felix Jones - Brown has ridiculous lower body strength and he's a workhorse, but one without a 2nd gear. Jones has sick quicks and long speed. I see these guys as completely different. Brown is more like Gore or a regular sized Michael Turner - deep speed.Sanchez=Garrard - Garrard is massive, rugged, and creates after the play breaks down, Sanchez is more of a pocket passer, average size, decent, but not overwhelming arm strength. Sanchez is more like Rodgers or Schaub.Dillard=Bruce- These guys seem to have totally different body types and games to me - Dillard's strengths are his ups and his quicks, I cant recall Bruce making plays in the air or ankle breaking moves. Dillard is more like Lee Evans without the deep speed.I hate to nitpick compares, but these seem off to me, the kind of compares that give people who haven't seen the players the wrong impression.
.There's always a gem or two that slips through the cracks, but you can bet that I'm not aiming to acquire any extra 3rd round rookie picks this year.
