Rookie draft strategy (1 Viewer)

future_itisnow · Mar 6, 2009

I'm hoping to start a discussion here around draft strategies for IDP Dynasty League Rookie Drafts.

I'm looking for feedback, lessons learned, etc on whether it is smarter to draft rookies at positions based on need (which sometimes means reaching on skill players at RB/WR) or just draft the best player available no matter what your needs are.

For example, looking at results from last years rookie draft (year 3 of the league) I see the following taking place:

- Many teams (16 team league btw) reaching by taking WR's and RB's starting late in the 1st round all the way until the mid-3rd round.

- At the same time other owners are taking the best available (more sure bets usually) players at LB, TE, QB, and even DL (DB's and drop a bit later in the draft typically)

- What you end up with is owners taking fliers on deeper WR's and RB's and leaving instant impact guys like Mayo, Lofton, Flacco, Ryan, Keller, Carlson, etc out there. (and yes this is in hindsight, but the point I am trying to make is that these guys were in the top 2-3 rookies in their positions each time and were being drafted behind the 9th best WR or RB, etc)

So the question is, which strategy to do you employ during rookie IDP redrafts and why?

Also, what is considered too early to grab a LB off of the draft board in a rookie draft?

Will guys like (for example in this years coming draft) Curry, Maualuga, Lauranitis go in the 1st round in a 16 team league???

Your responses are appreciated.

Larry Thomas · Mar 6, 2009

When I'm on the back end of a draft, I find it very difficult to pass up a top tier IDP, and usually don't.

I evaluate my team after free agency and see where I'm at. If I have the luxury of no pressing needs, then usually take the best player available approach.

I draft players that fit my team, such as the handcuffs to RBs. If I like my handcuff's potential to be another Michael Turner type, then rank him higher than he probably would be for other owners because of the fit and draft him probably a round higher than I should. Often I'll try to trade back and pick up another draft choice. I draft off my own rankings, so at times the players drafted may look like a reach. If my team is strong and I've won a championship or two with it, may swing for the fence on a pick or two. Guess what I'm saying is, for me, it depends on where I feel my team is at and what has it done. If you have some key players who are aging and feel your window of opportunity is closing, you need to adjust your draft accordingly. In a dynasty format, I like to take talent over opportunity, run the marathon not the sprint so-to-speak, but admit, sometimes it's difficult not to get sucked in to opportunity.

I stay pretty true to my rankings, and generally have my draft mapped out and know exactly what I want to do and who I want to take. However, I will not hesitate to veer off and grab someone who is surprisingly still out there, regardless of position.

Back in '2006, had the 12th pick in a 12 team leaue, drafted LB/LB in the first two rounds (Greenway/Ryans) and had planned to take a safety in round three (Bernard Pollard). When it came around to my 3.12, D'Qwell Jackson (my 4th ranked LB) was still on the board, the value was too good for me to pass up. Had a couple other DBs I liked about as well as Pollard, and by my rankings, Jackson was the only top tier LB left.

Will guys like (for example in this years coming draft) Curry, Maualuga, Lauranitis go in the 1st round in a 16 team league???

Probably, but it depends on where they go.

chook · Mar 7, 2009

Two years ago I traded down from the 1.6 (16 team, 3 rounds) to a guy who was set on Willis. Ended up getting Chris Henry and some other hack, but the thing was he got the guy he needed to take him to the Championship game; regardless of the perceived overpayment at the time.

Next season I took a leaf out of his book and took Jordon Dizon as the first IDP pick at 1.12, as a tackle-heavy MLB was what I thought I needed. While everyone called it a reach at the time, it was the pick itself that sucked, not the position that I took him. As with most drafts, the IDP run will begin once the first defensive player is selected (this is usually the key time to target offensive players!). Mayo & Lofton went shortly thereafter, luckily I traded back in to get the new Falcons' stud.

Long story short, I think the key is to pick what you need when you can. Screw the reach (as my sig shows, I ended up finally taking home the bobblehead regardless!). But just be sure that the player you are looking to take earlier than the rest is a bonafide stud.

The three guys you outlined in your post are the only three players that could potentially go in first round of 16 team dynasties this year (depending on where the cards fall), however I think Curry & Maualuga are the only ones I would be considering at this stage based simply on talent.

PewterFan · Mar 7, 2009

Great read thus far. While I agree that it's important to get the players that best fit for your team and to not worry too much about reaching, it's equally important to know each player's ADP (which can be hard if you start your draft right after the NFL Draft) so you can prepare accordingly.

For example, you don't want to get a guy in the 1st round that will surely be there in the 2nd.

stevegamer · Mar 9, 2009

I honestly like to trade out of the 1st round if I've got a top 2-3 pick, and get someone more proven.

Having been the guy to draft Charles Rogers & Kevin Jones at 1.01, who were pretty much the consensus guys there, I felt that I wanted to deal out last year at 1.04, but couldn't find a partner. I made a good pick by taking Forte, who helped me win a title (I had underacheived the prior year), but still I'd rather have someone more certain than making a pick on a rookie.

Jene Bramel · Mar 10, 2009

Depending on the league, the playbook can get pretty deep here, but the short version for me is:

1. Tier the players into loose groups however you like.

2. Have a good idea of how your league values each position in the draft.

3. Err on the side of taking the best player available with every pick regardless of need.

4. If you're convinced you see a sure stud, trade to get him.

5. If there's no one that excites you in a particular tier, try to trade back.

No rocket science there, but I'm also a big believer in relative advantage over positional scarcity concerns. Unless I really like the talent and/or opportunity of a second tier offensive prospect, I'm not taking him over a relatively sure first tier defensive prospect. The flex point of the draft for me is the late first - mid second. That area makes and breaks teams. Grabbing value in the third rounds and later is obviously a big boost, but making the right decision between a Jon Beason and Robert Meachem or Steve Slaton and Jordon Dizon can really separate your team.

How early you take the first IDP off the board depends on your league. If linebackers hold very good value and a definite stud goes mid-late first, the decision is easy. If your scoring system supports it, but your league prefers to draft longshot backs and wide receivers ahead of top tier IDPs, there's nothing wrong with being the guy that "reaches" for IDPs. Those following that strategy could have a stable of DeMeco Ryans (2nd round), Patrick Willis (late 1st) and Jon Beason (late 1st/early 2nd) right now. Linebacker is the only position I feel comfortable reaching for, however. I'd be leery of taking a DB or DL high -- maybe a Mario Williams deserves a draft slot in the top LB tier range, but those players will be very rare.

You'll want to see where a player lands before tiering him. A guy like Aaron Curry *should* be a Patrick Willis like lock for a safe first round draft pick -- if he goes to a team who wants to use him at ILB. Talent is very important to IDP prospects, but role and opportunity play a significant role.

Larry Thomas · Mar 11, 2009

PewterFan said:
Great read thus far. While I agree that it's important to get the players that best fit for your team and to not worry too much about reaching, it's equally important to know each player's ADP (which can be hard if you start your draft right after the NFL Draft) so you can prepare accordingly.

For example, you don't want to get a guy in the 1st round that will surely be there in the 2nd.

ADP is good point, personally I don't really look at ADP in dynasty and it definitley does not influence. If you've had a good hit rate thru the years, trust your instincts. Right or wrong... my approach is get the guy ya want, but don't get crazy with it. Hey... your gonna have your fair share of misses and may look silly at times, but at least you got your guy. I'd rather have over-drafted a player who went bust then have traded away proven player/s and/or draft pick/s for him after missing out at the draft. If your an owner who has enjoyed your fair share of success, it can be difficult to trade for a player you missed out on drafting. Even more so if you have a reputation of finding hidden gems, you end up over-paying anyway.

Toads · Mar 14, 2009

I try to "do" at least one new Dynasty League each season, to keep current with the rookie crop.

I analyzed a preceeding year draft, same scoring system, in this year's "League of Choice" and made the following conclusions:

1) Rookies were drafted early (28th pick: McFadden) and progressed from there.....random, with the rookie RB's kicking in about the mid-fourth round, followed by WR's, etc. This particular League had no IDP's....just OFF players and Team DEF. The conclusions herein should hold true for both side of the ball, however.

2) What seemed to be a pattern was that the rookies "hit" at about a 1:4 ratio....studs to duds (one out of every five drafted rookies was a stud). In an IDP scenario, the ratios sholud hold about the same....maybe with DB's hitting at a slightly better rate.

3) There was about a zero correlation as to where the hits for studs occured based on the ranking within their player group. High demand RB's and WR's had a high "Dud" quotient with the early, and with the late, picks in their player group.

4) What this meant, particularly in the early drafts (those happening relative to the NFL Rookie Draft), was that hitting on a stud rookie was a seemingly random process. You had an equal chance of getting an Eddie Royal, or an Earl Bennett, by drafting late; one of them panned out and one of them is a knight in waiting. If you sprung early, you had a shot at either of those WR guys drafted by WAS, both of whom were highly rated but can't play a lick.

CONCLUSION: stay with the vets and if you've got a strong premonition on a rookie, knock your self out.....but buyer beware. Rookies should be drafted after the depth is established and the depth is established at the zero VBD point.

If you are springing on rookies much before the zero VBD point, you are looking for a "Home Run" if you expect that player to contribute year #1....and the odds of that happening are about 20%. And, get this....the 20% chance can happen early....or, it can happen late....seemingly with no correlation.

The only saving grace is that you are drafting "draft and follow" rookies which is neither good nor bad (unless, of course, you are drafting in a contract League).

stevegamer · Mar 16, 2009

I disagree with the concept that rookie IDP's will hit/bust at roughly the same rate as offensive players - in particular, LB's.

It takes a lot of suckitude for a highly drafted LB not to see the field early in his career. There are 3 LB spots, and teams rarley draft more than one a year they expect to play a lot, unless they have a gaping hole across the LB core. From what I've seen they seem to "hit" pretty well, defining that as being a serviceable starter - LB3 or better.

I agree with the note about DB's. Rookie DB's seem to hit really well for me, but my league as a whole seems to miss on them some.

I agree on DL - it's way too hard to predict.

awesomeness · Mar 17, 2009

stevegamer said:
I disagree with the concept that rookie IDP's will hit/bust at roughly the same rate as offensive players - in particular, LB's.It takes a lot of suckitude for a highly drafted LB not to see the field early in his career. There are 3 LB spots, and teams rarley draft more than one a year they expect to play a lot, unless they have a gaping hole across the LB core. From what I've seen they seem to "hit" pretty well, defining that as being a serviceable starter - LB3 or better.I agree with the note about DB's. Rookie DB's seem to hit really well for me, but my league as a whole seems to miss on them some. I agree on DL - it's way too hard to predict.

Last year the top tier of LB'swere Rivers, Mayo, Dizon, and Lofton. It's only been a year, but three of those guys looked pretty good when given the opportunity. Look back to 2007, the top tier of LB's were Patrick Willis, Paul Posluszny, and Jon Beason. Two of these guys are studs, and Posz has proven to be a very solid LB himself. Highly ranked LB's are the safest rookie commodies in regards to FF imo. The amount of highly rated LB's that turn out to be solid FF players is at a higher rate than any other position i would assume.On the other hand, i think its best to avoid drafting DB's for the most part. The turnover of starting DB's in the NFL seems to be very high, and there are very few DB's who put up great numbers year after year.

Tick · Mar 21, 2009

Jene Bramel said:
If your scoring system supports it, but your league prefers to draft longshot backs and wide receivers ahead of top tier IDPs, there's nothing wrong with being the guy that "reaches" for IDPs. Those following that strategy could have a stable of DeMeco Ryans (2nd round), Patrick Willis (late 1st) and Jon Beason (late 1st/early 2nd) right now. Linebacker is the only position I feel comfortable reaching for, however.

Always keep in mind that this could just as easily land you AJ Hawk, Chad Greenway, and Rocky McIntosh.

coolnerd · Mar 23, 2009

Tick said:
Jene Bramel said:

If your scoring system supports it, but your league prefers to draft longshot backs and wide receivers ahead of top tier IDPs, there's nothing wrong with being the guy that "reaches" for IDPs. Those following that strategy could have a stable of DeMeco Ryans (2nd round), Patrick Willis (late 1st) and Jon Beason (late 1st/early 2nd) right now. Linebacker is the only position I feel comfortable reaching for, however.

Click to expand...

Always keep in mind that this could just as easily land you AJ Hawk, Chad Greenway, and Rocky McIntosh.

I doubting that these picks are going to deter someone who drafts an IDP early Unlike many of the WRs or RB you could have there, all three of those guys have some fantasy football value. In fact, the floor of AJ Hawk (what a LB3/4) is a good thing. BTW, not sure why Greenway is on that list, he was top 15 in scoring in most formats I remember.

Larry Thomas · Mar 23, 2009

Yeah, not sure why Greenway is on list either, guess it could depend on scoring system. :wub:

jgb95 · Mar 23, 2009

so is it safe to say that if no one wants to move up to the top 3-5. your team has a need at ILB and Curry is selected with a team that appears to be poised to use at MLB. is it crazy to take him there?

ILB's score (2/tk 1/ast 2/pd,ff,fr 10/sk 6/int)

stevegamer · Mar 23, 2009

jgb95 said:
so is it safe to say that if no one wants to move up to the top 3-5. your team has a need at ILB and Curry is selected with a team that appears to be poised to use at MLB. is it crazy to take him there?ILB's score (2/tk 1/ast 2/pd,ff,fr 10/sk 6/int)

It's tough to say before we know where he lands - and where others land as well. I'd likely have no problem taking him at 5, unless he looks to end up a SLB - which is a risk. At 3, you're looking at either WR1 & RB2 beign available, and I'm not I'd take him over Crabtree with the usual premium offensive players have in value.

Tick · Mar 23, 2009

Larry Thomas said:
Yeah, not sure why Greenway is on list either, guess it could depend on scoring system.

It's mainly that he was drafter a round before Demeco Ryans that year, and hadn't done anything until this season. Plus, this wasn't a worst-case scenario - these were the guys I drafted :-(

Larry Thomas · Mar 24, 2009

Tick said:
Larry Thomas said:

Yeah, not sure why Greenway is on list either, guess it could depend on scoring system.

Click to expand...

It's mainly that he was drafter a round before Demeco Ryans that year, and hadn't done anything until this season. Plus, this wasn't a worst-case scenario - these were the guys I drafted :-(

I see... I drafted Greenway (1.12) before Ryans also, liked Ryans as well or better, but felt he would fall to me at 2.12.

Biabreakable · Mar 25, 2009

Great topic.

So much to say here I will have to come back to it.

Bottom line use every tool you have available and be flexible. I strongly believe in taking BPA with every pick regardless of that players position or your team needs. Using tools like ADP, league tendencies and your teams specific needs are where trading is your friend. If you can be flexible enough and able to maneuver your draft position through trades then you can better maximize the talent meeting need. If not then stay the course and take BPA. If your picks are correct you will accumulate talent that can be later trader to meet your teams needs.

Gamma1210 · Mar 25, 2009

Biabreakable said:
Great topic.So much to say here I will have to come back to it.Bottom line use every tool you have available and be flexible. I strongly believe in taking BPA with every pick regardless of that players position or your team needs. Using tools like ADP, league tendencies and your teams specific needs are where trading is your friend. If you can be flexible enough and able to maneuver your draft position through trades then you can better maximize the talent meeting need. If not then stay the course and take BPA. If your picks are correct you will accumulate talent that can be later trader to meet your teams needs.

IMO in larger IDP leagues, leage tendencies are probably the most important and overlooked strategy, especially if your league does a lot of trading mid draft. Lots of leagues overvalue skill positions, and RBs especially so if you arent in need or don't like any RBs in this class you can keep trading down until you know the value is there for IDPs. It seems like lots of people dont like to spend a first rounder on a LB, but will spend 2.01 in a second. I may try this in this rookie draft if Curry doesn't end up in a SLB role, trade back to 1.15 or 1.16 and grab him while others are taking 2nd-3rd tier WRs and RBs. It only works in some leagues tho.

Tick · Mar 26, 2009

One nice thing about the Zealots leagues is that there are 48 leagues with the same rules... an ADP there is extremely useful for draft planning, if you can set up a dynamic tool to get updated ADP info as you need it.

After a few years in a few IDP dynasty leagues, I've shifted somewhat... I tend to do a lot better taking offensive players (RBs and QBs particularly) in the rookie draft, then relying on free agency and waivers to refresh my IDPs. With the dramatic shifts in value on the defensive side due to scheme changes, more high-value guys open up in the offseason than at offensive positions, where scheme changes usually only affect players who are already on rosters (with the rare exception of a Martz backup QB or a player a coach takes from his previous team).

houndirish · Mar 26, 2009

I like using ADP as a pre-draft strategy to assist me with estimating when a player will go off the board. However I try to avoid allowing ADP to influence my decisions during the draft. I'd rather take a player I really want to land 10 picks earlier than ADP suggests I should than get cute and risk missing him. At the end of a draft I want to be happy with the talent I've collected first and foremost as opposed to feeling like I did a good job of getting the best value. Too often I think owners put too much pressure on themselves to "draft accordingly", by that I mean, they're afraid to deviate too far from expert cheatsheets and conventional opinion. As such, they may pass over the player they really want because they think it's too soon, however virtually 5-6 picks later it seems more appropriate. That's way too idealistic in my book. 3-4 years later when you look back and see your busted pick taken 8 spots BEFORE the player you actually coveted it suddenly seems pretty foolish to have tried to be so perfect.

I've also noticed that in recent years it seems my dynasty league competitors have adopted a similar mentality as I haven't felt as though our drafts have followed conventional ADP forecasts. Guys like Matt Ryan, Eddie Royal, Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson, and Ryan Torain going sooner than expected. While Chris Johnson, Flacco, Forte and Desean Jackson fell. Personally, I like this trend, even if it makes it harder to predict how the draft will play out.

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