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concur. 70 / 30 split, imo.
He had 62% of all carries last year and 70% of the RB carries. Unless Houston drafts a RB fairly high to split time, I'd expect a slight increase this year for Slaton. I wouldn't be surprised with 350 touches (285 carries and 65 receptions). If Houston improves as a team and can run the ball more to close out games, it could even be a little more.
For 2008, Slaton had 71% of all RB touches in Houston.Look at the final numbers on the year:382 HOU RB rushes268 Slaton rushes70% opps for Slaton78 HOU RB targets59 Slaton targets76% opps to Slaton64 HOU RB Receptions50 Slaton recepts78% opps to Slaton14 HOU RB TD's10 Slaton TD's71% TD's to SlatonThen take a closer look at the distribution of touches just between Ahman Green and Slaton in games when both played:CarriesSlaton carries 115Green carries 74 61% for SlatonTargets13 Targets for Slaton 14 Targets for Green 48% for Slaton Receptions12 Recepts for Slaton11 Recepts for Green52% for SlatonTD’s5 TD's for Slaton3 TD's for Green63% for SlatonWhen Ahman Green played, Slaton had 58% of RB touches in those games. When Green did not play, Slaton had 85% of all RB touches.When Ahman Green played Slaton averaged 12.9 PPG in PPRWhen Ahman Green did not play, Slaton averaged 21.9 in PPRHouston will use two backs next year, the only reason Slaton got as much work this season was circumstances and not coaches decision. The workload Slaton had in 2008 will not repeat in 2009.If you want to project Slaton for over 70% of all RB touches again this year after looking at what the Texans prefer to do with two healthy options, then be my guest.
I don't think it's just about having a "healthy option". It also needs to be a good option. Is Brown expected to be that guy?
From the blogger:
This is just not good but great psoting. I will be selling Slaton if I owned him. Good article on the Colorado State guy also. You have owned this threadGreat contribution here, and your previous post as well. I did not think there was much of a chance that Slaton's role was reduced next year but I could see Slaton's slice of the pie getting smaller if they get the right guy in there. That guy definitely isn't on the roster right now, but as you pointed out, he could be soon. I could also see Houston taking a step forward as a team next year, and having a more balanced attack as a result. Last year they ran on 44% of their plays. Say that increases a bit next year - should I project more carries for Slaton with less receptions? If they get that physical back, do you think he might get more carries early on or later on?
There are many RBBCs in the NFL now.to suggest Slaton is a SELL because of these numbers is very shortsighted, imo.Especially looking at the overall talent that is Steve Slaton and his 4.8 YPC last season.This dude should not be sold unless you are receiving huge value in return.I only own him in 1 of 4 leagues, but I think this kid is a present and future stud. "BUY"
The only problem with this analysis is the Texans had a quite a bit of money tied up in Green so they wanted to give him every opportunity to earn that money. I think Slaton has proved that he can perform and perform well in the NFL.With that being said I fully expect them to give someone else the goalline carries and perhaps spell Slaton on occasion. I think a 60/40 to 70/30 split seems reasonable. Plus Slaton is a very good to great receiving RB so while his carries may decline I suspect his receptions should remain about the same.This is just not good but great psoting. I will be selling Slaton if I owned him. Good article on the Colorado State guy also. You have owned this thread
Not according to this article
Green, Taylor, Brown and Slaton to start the year. Slaton is the only one who stayed healthy. Even Moats, who became Slaton's backup mid-year, got hurt, too:
Slaton played well, but he also was the only option they had. No team is going to give their RB 85% of the touches unless they have no other choice. That's why Slaton's numbers were so skewed in the second half after Green went down for the year.
Who cares if he restructured or not, he still was a big free agent signing from 2007 and the Texans were going to give him every opportunity to prove that it was a good signing. Obviously it wasn't.I fully expect someone to take some carries away from him and he will not get anywhere near 85% of them for an extended period of time. But the fact is he averaged 4.8 yards per carry so I can't imagine the Texans cutting his carries down to the 58% number you seem to like just because they allegedly like a 2 back system. There aren't too many 4.8 yards per carry guys out there...especially those with the receiving ability of Slaton.
Thanks. Actually Green got hurt in Week 1 and did not return until week 5. Slaton started every game except for Week 1. In fact, he was designated the starter after week 3 regardless of Green's health:
I was only responding to your claim that the Texans had a lot of money tied up in Green and that was what justified why he was used in the RBBC. I was just pointing out that wasn't the case. Green's cap number was reduced and he was only getting paid unless he played, so the opposite was actually true.
Like I have said in other threads, if the Texans add another RB the same caliber as Green was last year to complement Slaton, they are going to use both. Look at last season as proof:In weeks 3, 4, and 9 - all weeks where Green was hurt and did not play - Slaton had 124, 116, and 118 yards from scrimmage, respectively, where he averaged 21 touches a game.Yet when Green returned from injury in Week 5, Slaton started and had 58% of the touches (16 rush & 1 rec)....Again, when Green returned in Week 10, the workload was split 50/50 (albeit only 6 touches apiece).Slaton had 5 games of 20+ carries. The first was week 12, when Ahman Green and he split carries until Green got hurt and couldn't finish the game....his other four 20+ carry games were weeks 13,14, 15, & 17, all games when Green was inactive.Kubiak said a few days ago he is going to use multiple RB's this coming season, seems pretty consistent with how he tried to operate last year
Agree Slayton struggled a little in short yardage. But, if Kub's answer (mentioned above) is Chris "upright running and can't stay healthy" Brown for that role, it's only a matter of time. I don't care if he's 6'2" and 220 - dude is NOT a short yardage back. And maybe some of the problem was the O line and play calling in those scenarios. LT he's not @ the stripe, but unless they bring in a solid thumper (like a LeRon McClain type) - who can actually dress and play on Sundays - I wouldn't be surprised to see Slayton at least involved in a decent % of those packages. As a Slayton owner (and I'm not), I'd be more worried about Schaub finding a way to stay on the field to keep the offense going.
dude went over 100 yards rushing a game in 4 of the last 7 weeks and only 1 week had less than 100 total yards. that's starting to wear down?
Slaton, did not wear down at the end of the year. He actually averaged more carries per game his last 6 then the rest of the year, and had a 4.6ypc during that span. Kid also had a 5.6ypc during the 4th qtr. Cant see how anyone who watched him at the end of last year would say he was worn down at all. No more then you can say for any RB after 16game season.
That was week 10 last year - plenty rookies hit a wall. Slaton followed up by going for 100+ total yards on 6 of the last 7 games and rushing for 100+ in 4 of the last seven.
You know better than that ...Dont forget to include Offensive output in those splits. Did Hou perform better when Slaton was getting more or less touches?
Please show me how you determined he wore down. Matter of fact (id have to get the articles) but his teammates all said he got stronger as the year wore on
Article is used out of context. Yes his coach said he was worn out, for 1 week (week 10). After that slaton tore it up, and showed Zero signs of being worn out.That was week 10 last year - plenty rookies hit a wall. Slaton followed up by going for 100+ total yards on 6 of the last 7 games and rushing for 100+ in 4 of the last seven.
Pretty much mirrors my sentiments. Two important things to add when we try and figure out his opportunities for 2009 and how they'll shape his production:Buy low. A Slaton thread comes up every two weeks in the shark pool and people pile on about how they expect him to lose carries and he was a one year wonder. HK reposts the exact same posts that continue to ignore qualitative reasons for Slaton splitting time early in the season and then getting much better as the season went on. People reguritate that Slaton got "wore down" based on a week 10 comment by Kubiak taken out of context.Buy low is, of course, relative. Seems like the only people that appreciate how good Slaton was last year are the ones that already own him and us lone Texan fans. Most everyone else seems to be writing him off. I've seen a lot of "Dom Davis vs 2.0" comments in these Slaton threads and I don't think there could be any worse of a comparison.
Very
I'm not trying to BUY Slaton because of how many carries he will get in 2009.That would be a bit shortsighted. I am trying to BUY him because of his overall TALENT level.Very
I'm assuming you're talking dynasty. Both are important factors to fantasy success and last year he had both. I liked Slaton last year but I could certainly see him paired with a "Lendale White" type of back..a short yardage back that will also get a good bit of goal line carries. I think they'll try to keep him fresher by rotating a bruiser in and taking some of the punishment. I still think he'll be good but may be a little overpriced. A lot will depend on if they bring in someone to take the goal line carries.
HK usually bangs on the guy he picks, so he's likely a Slaton owner.
I have his rights at the moment and I am trying to evaluate his future which is why I've looked so closely at his numbers. I like his ability, but I am not a fan of his situation. It was very frustrating watching him and Green split carries last year, even after Slaton proved he was the better player. Green averaged 2.9 yards a reception last year, but despite that abysmal figure he and Slaton basically split targets when both were available. Why? Slaton proved how much damage he can do in space, so it didn't make sense to keep using Green as a receiver in the RBBC. The only answer is Coaching, and even though Green is gone, there is no reason to expect a change in the way he uses his RBs.
B. Jacobs - of course
Seriously though, it's good to get both sides-opinions. Makes all of us better in the long run.carry on...It happens every year. Last year it was Grant.With that said, I'm in the camp that believes Slaton will be grossly overrated this season and is going to absolutely kill some fantasy teams.
I figured that was your angle.One thing that you touched on, his durability or the fact that he wore down, is probably a big reason for the Green touches. He was a rook and a smaller guy and as the coaches said he was wearing down a bit so the coaches were probably trying to extend his season/effectiveness. One thing to look out for would be his offseason and if he put on some muscle that may help him through the NFL season a little better. I think you are right though that he got a lot of the carries out of necessity due to the lousy/injured RB's on the roster. His carries will probably take a bit of hit but his receptions will likely stay the same IMO. Like I said earlier though, I could definitely see a guy coming in to take some of the goal line/short yardage pounding. As far as the offense goes I really like that Houston offense. I think they flew under most peoples radars but I liked Schaub a lot going into last year and snagged him on all my teams. I'll try to do the same this year but it'll likely be a lot more expensive. They've got a nice stable of wr's, good TE, nice RB's so they will move the ball and get red zone opps. My 2 cents.
But depending on how you look at it, you ARE expecting a change. Last year, he got (overall) 70%. You expect less going forward. That's a change.I definitely see where you are coming from with Green, but you are using THOSE games as a baseline for change. You could just as easily (maybe more naturally) use the overall percentage as your baseline.Since Green isn't in the picture anymore, it's hard to know what the real baseline should be. Was the 60% based on them really liking or wanting to be loyal to green? Green was the starter going into the season afterall. Or was it more that they were trying to save Slaton from overuse? The coach has talked a lot about the latter, so their is reason to lean that way. But as I said before, what coaches SAY and what they DO are entirely different animals. And last year, what they DID was use Slaton a lot when Green wasn't around. There were a lot of reasons for that (and a lot of reasons it could change - which you have made solid arguments for), but in the end, that's the most solid data we have for a baseline.I guess what I am trying to say is, YOU are making the case for change, and your statement above kind of implies the opposite.
HK has skills when he uses them for good as opposed to evil
The lack of change HK is talking about is a lack of change in philosophy from the coaching staff. Kubiak wanted to have another back spell Slaton and he wanted to use another back in short yardage situations. It was only a rash of injuries that prevented this from happening.There were 8 games last season in which Green had touches and 8 games where he didnt. Here are the stats:
With Green Without GreenCarries 115 153Receptions 15 38Rushing Yards 563 719Receiving Yards 51 326Rushing TDs 5 4Receiving TDs 0 1
