Predraft Thoughts (1 Viewer)

I thought I'd piggyback on the awesome DraftGuys stuff with some thoughts of my own. Since I’m not a tape-watcher, my pre-draft thoughts are based on a reading of a collection of scouting reports and comments to generate some loose comparisons between current NFL players and the incoming rookie class. It’s not particularly scientific, but helps to form a general frame of mind before these guys are drafted to a particular scheme/philosophy.

***NFL comparisons are loose, but still meant to provide a reasonably close comp to NFL potential.

***Players are listed in rough order of consensus opinion.

***Height/weight information is from the combine where available.

***Links to DraftGuys video profiles where available.

We’ll start with the non-tweener linebackers, since they’ll end up generating the most discussion, and I can add other positions if there's interest.

AARON CURRY (Wake Forest) // 6’1”, 254

Compares very favorably to the best prospects in recent seasons (Patrick Willis, AJ Hawk, etc). Excellent size, speed, range and versatility. Often referred to as scheme-diverse by scouts who believe he can play any linebacker position, including rush OLB in a 3-4. Very likely to be an every-down player on opening weekend.

NFL comparisons: Brian Urlacher, Karlos Dansby

REY MAUALUGA (USC) // 6’1”, 249 // **DGTV**

Strong, aggressive hitter with excellent speed for his size. Above-average instincts. Able to get off blocks well. Some concern that his coverage skills are questionable for the NFL, but supporters argue that he’ll have no trouble playing every down. Best fit is clearly inside, MLB in a 4-3 or either ILB position in a 3-4.

NFL comparisons: Takeo Spikes or James Farrior (if proves worthy in coverage), Gerald Hayes or Jeremiah Trotter (if struggles to cover)

JAMES LAURINAITIS (Ohio State) // 6’1”, 244

One of the most well-rounded ILB prospects available. Praised for his size, speed, pursuit, instincts, football intellect and fundamental play. Many reports have qualifiers – average range, struggles to disengage from blocks, not particularly aggressive at the point of attack – and give the impression that he’ll be a solid performer but never a star. Considered an ILB prospect, but could work at WLB, too.

NFL comparisons: Tedy Bruschi, a more instinctive Channing Crowder

BRIAN CUSHING (USC) // 6’2”, 243 // **DGTV**

Instinctive and strong at the point of attack. Above-average playing speed and pursuit skills. Excellent in coverage. Some durability concerns and reports debate his pass rush ability at the next level. Might fit inside in either front, but more likely to play OLB, possibly in an every-down SLB capacity.

NFL comparisons: Marcus Washington, Keith Bulluck

DARRY BECKWITH (LSU) // 6’0”, 242

Some disagreement among scouts, but most feel he is athletic and physical with better than average football instincts. Will take on blocks readily, but often struggles to disengage. Coverage questions may keep him from being an every-down player. Likely to be an inside linebacker in the NFL.

NFL comparisons: EJ Henderson, more athletic Andra Davis

CLAY MATTHEWS (USC) // 6’3”, 240

Instinctive, but relatively inexperienced. Not strong enough at the point of attack, but agile enough to elude blocks and has good range and pursuit skills. High motor, hustle player. Fits outside in the NFL, but probably needs time to develop. Should play an OLB position in the NFL.

NFL comparisons: raw Keith Brooking, bigger Michael Boley with better motor, maybe a Mike Vrabel type in the making (not sure there’s a clear comparison here)

DANNELL ELLERBEE (Georgia) // 6’1”, 236

Can be explosive inside the box and has shown good coverage skills. Some question his instincts and feel his football speed is slower than his timed speed, limiting his range. Could struggle to get off blocks at the next level. Has character concerns. Often listed as an ILB prospect, but might fit as a WLB in the right scheme.

NFL comparisons: Will Witherspoon, Stephen Cooper

JASON PHILLIPS (TCU) // 6’0”, 239

Average athlete, but a smart, instinctive, hustling player. Speed, ability to elude blocks and coverage skill may not translate to the NFL. Listed as an ILB, but might work as a 4-3 WLB or 3-4 WILB in the right schemes.

NFL comparisions: Chris Draft, Matt Wilhelm

Others that could become contributors in the right situation (in no particular order):

Gerald McRath (Southern Mississippi) – Rangy and instinctive, but concerns about size and strength will limit him at the point of attack.

Scott McKillop (Pittsburgh) – Instinctive and productive in college, but may not be athletic enough to play every down. Could have a Stewart Bradley career path or become a backup/ST type.

Ashlee Palmer (Mississippi) – Similar to Wes Woodyard in size and talent and questions whether he’ll be able to hold up in the NFL.

Antonio Appleby (Virginia) – Has the look of a 3-4 SILB and will probably have a hard time carving out an every-down role.

Worrell Williams (Cal) –Versatile and athletic, but may not have the football instincts to survive.

Frantz Joseph (Central Florida) **DGTV** – May not be consistent enough to force his way into every-down playing time, but is one of a bunch of small school guys with very interesting scouting profiles.

Lee Robinson (Alcorn State) **DGTV** – Seems to have the right skill set, but questions about competition are holding his stock down.

Marcus Freeman (OSU) – Athletic, instinctive and versatile. Could become an every-down player as a 4-3 WLB.

Jasper Brinkley (South Carolina) – Was a monster as an underclassman, but has yet to regain form after knee injury last year. Another guy who could carve out a nice 3-4 ILB niche in a year or two.

Tyrone McKenzie (South Florida) – Combines instincts with speed and coverage skill, but scouts are concerned about his ability to get off blocks.

Jason Williams (Western Illinois) – Screaming up draft boards and might get drafted early enough to be given a legit shot.

Preview of an article to be posted to the website soon...

IDP Opportunity in the NFL Draft

Coaching and defensive coordinator changes are well behind us and the dust has now settled on the first and second tiers of free agent movement. The final phase of the NFL’s non-playing season is now on the horizon. Let’s look at the league’s best opportunities for IDP production in the upcoming NFL draft. And remember to join us in the IDP Forum on draft weekend for real-time defensive prospect analysis and discussion.

MLB Detroit Lions

Last year’s darling Jordon Dizon looks to be a poor fit for the 4-3 planned by Jim Schwartz, who prefers size with his speed. With Julian Peterson (assuming there’s not a move to an every-down DE role in the works) and Ernie Sims entrenched outside and last season’s MLB Paris Lenon still floating in free agency, the MLB spot is wide open. With the Lions flush in early draft picks, there’s a very good chance that the spot will be filled by a talented rookie.

MLB St. Louis Rams

New head coach Steve Spagnuolo has moved Will Witherspoon outside and is currently planning on using veteran Chris Draft as his MLB. Draft is a capable talent, but there’s definitely room for an impact every-down player in the new Ram defensive scheme.

ILB/OLB Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have gaping holes both inside and outside at the linebacker position if they are committed to running the 3-4/4-3 hybrid that new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast used in Arizona. Recent addition Zach Thomas was inconsistent in Dallas last season and is now two full seasons removed from his last successful year in an every-down role. The Chiefs will almost certainly address the RILB/MLB hybrid position early in this draft. Outside, Mike Vrabel should provide a veteran presence and solid play, but he’s not a game-changing standup edge rusher. Big play league owners should be watching for an OLB/DE ‘tweener here.

MLB Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals made Keith Rivers a top ten pick last season, and he looked NFL ready before a jaw injury ended his season. With veteran stopgap Dhani Jones slated to start in the middle again this season, it’s possible that the team will look to add a body to groom for the future. A talented rookie with every-down skill could have long-term IDP value here.

ILB Miami Dolphins

Miami gave Channing Crowder a sizable contract shortly before free agency began, but did so begrudgingly. Outside of the cornerback position, the Dolphin defense is relatively deep. The Fin braintrust knows what it has in Akin Ayodele, but an upgrade at RILB is a possibility in this draft. An every-down prospect could push Crowder off the field in passing situations and assume much of his 2008 value in time.

SS Oakland Raiders

The Raiders unceremoniously dumped Gibril Wilson before free agency began, leaving a host of questionable talent to compete for jobs at the safety position. Michael Huff has yet to fulfill any of the promise expected of him, and, while Hiram Eugene have shown flashes of potential in the box score and the Raiders may consider Tyvon Branch at SS, too, the position has been too productive to ignore any rookie safety taken by Oakland in this draft.

SS Cleveland Browns

The Browns allowed Sean Jones to leave in free agency this year, leaving a thin group behind FS Brodney Pool and probable SS Mike Adams. With neither Pool nor Adams a force against the run, a solid two-way safety talent could be targeted in the draft and carve out good value sooner than later.

OLB Denver Broncos

With the Broncos seemingly committed to running Mike Nolan’s hybrid 4-3/3-4 one gap scheme, improving the outside pass rush will be a high priority. Elvis Dumervil and Jarvis Moss (among others) will compete for those roles, but nobody on the Denver roster has proven that they can rush the passer consistently from a two point stance. Those in big play leagues should have a considered eye on any OLB/DE ‘tweener taken by the Broncos in this draft.

SS Jacksonville Jaguars

The safety position has never been a big producer in the box score in Jacksonville, but with Reggie Nelson much better in space as a roving deep safety than supporting the run in the box, a classic SS could break the trend. Sean Considine and Calvin Lowry are replacement level talents at best, and a rookie could have plenty of opportunity to contribute early here.

ILB Dallas Cowboys

Keith Brooking isn’t likely to be a long-term option, Kevin Burnett has moved on to San Diego and Bobby Carpenter clearly doesn’t have the support of the coaching staff as an every-down ILB. The RILB spot in a Wade Phillips 3-4 front can be a very productive spot for an every-down player; a rookie ILB prospect with cover skills could be a nice stash for those in deeper dynasty leagues.

DE Washington Redskins

With Jason Taylor out of the picture and an assortment of marginal veterans and unproven youngsters left behind, there may be an opening at defensive end opposite Andre Carter and alongside Albert Haynesworth. Any rookie getting a significant number of snaps is likely to be ignored in the opposing offense’s gameplan and could pay dividends in the box score immediately.

no Denver ILB?

5Rings said:

no Denver ILB?

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Yeah, that might end up being an oversight. The two year deal for Andra Davis is interesting, which might see DJ Williams entrenched in the WILB position. But there are some positions highlighted that aren't any clearer.Thanks for pointing that one out.

Jene Bramel said:

We’ll start with the non-tweener linebackers, since they’ll end up generating the most discussion, and I can add other positions if there's interest.

AARON CURRY (Wake Forest) // 6’1”, 254

Compares very favorably to the best prospects in recent seasons (Patrick Willis, AJ Hawk, etc). Excellent size, speed, range and versatility. Often referred to as scheme-diverse by scouts who believe he can play any linebacker position, including rush OLB in a 3-4. Very likely to be an every-down player on opening weekend.

NFL comparisons: Brian Urlacher, Karlos Dansby

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I am the only guy seeing Curry going to a 3-4 and becoming an OLB, in which case his NFL comparisons would be Ware and Merriman. This would move him down the list and also result in his NFL stats (and fantasy stats) being inconsistent because they are predicated on sacks. KC at 1.03 is a real possibility.

Jene, great work... as always.

Dirty Hairy said:

Jene Bramel said:

We’ll start with the non-tweener linebackers, since they’ll end up generating the most discussion, and I can add other positions if there's interest.

AARON CURRY (Wake Forest) // 6’1”, 254

Compares very favorably to the best prospects in recent seasons (Patrick Willis, AJ Hawk, etc). Excellent size, speed, range and versatility. Often referred to as scheme-diverse by scouts who believe he can play any linebacker position, including rush OLB in a 3-4. Very likely to be an every-down player on opening weekend.

NFL comparisons: Brian Urlacher, Karlos Dansby

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I am the only guy seeing Curry going to a 3-4 and becoming an OLB, in which case his NFL comparisons would be Ware and Merriman. This would move him down the list and also result in his NFL stats (and fantasy stats) being inconsistent because they are predicated on sacks. KC at 1.03 is a real possibility.

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I agree that Curry could go to a team who'll use him as a 3-4 OLB. However, the NFL comps are meant to be mirrors of his skill set. Curry could develop into a nice pass rusher, but that's the weakest link of his skill set. I've not seen any scouting reports that suggest he can lean and beat an offensive tackle on the edge like Ware can or has the power to bull rush capabilities that Merriman has. I think he could grow into a dynamic all-around player like Karlos Dansby, who could probably push 10 sacks as a ROLB in a 3-4 front, but I don't see an obvious comparison to any current 3-4 rush OLB.However, you're correct that he'll be a very tough call in many scoring systems if his future team slots him as an every down 3-4 OLB.

Hybrid DE/OLB prospects. Pretty interesting crop of characters here -- and at the right time with the explosion in 3-4 and hybrid fronts over the past two seasons.

EVERETTE BROWN (Florida State) // 6’1”, 256

Explosive first step with an understanding of how to leverage in pass rush and close. Decent run defender for his size, but has little coverage experience. Could fit either as a one-dimensional 3-4 ROLB or a smallish 4-3 RDE.

NFL comparisons: Quentin Groves, Robert Mathis

LARRY ENGLISH (Northern Illinois) // 6’2”, 255

Tough athlete with good quickness. Decent first step and array of pass rush moves to go with a good motor, but scouts debate whether his pass rush ability projects against top OTs. Also disagreement on whether he can handle zone drops and hold the point of attack. Very likely to be drafted into a 3-4 OLB role and is probably better suited to the ROLB slot.

NFL comparisons: Travis LaBoy, Anthony Spencer

CLINT SINTIM (Virginia) // 6’2”, 256

Athletic, mobile, versatile. Should be able to handle zone drops, get off blocks and bring a consistent, though not, explosive pass rush. Doesn’t have elite speed or range or instincts. Could work as a 4-3 SLB. Probably fits best in the 3-4, though it’s questionable whether he’d be explosive enough to become an elite ROLB.

NFL comparison: Derrick Johnson with a hint of Lamarr Woodley

AARON MAYBIN (Penn State) // 6’3”, 249

Explosive with elite closing speed. Questionable size and technique. Unlikely to get off blocks in the NFL and may not have the array of pass rush moves to complement his first step quickness. Won’t hold up at the point of attack and may be a longshot to develop instincts in coverage. Limited to 4-3 RDE or 3-4 rush OLB.

NFL comparisons: Dwight Freeney minus a year of college production and spin move, more explosive Kamerion Wimbley

BRIAN ORAKPO (Nebraska) // 6’3”, 263

Athletic, strong, explosive. With experience, has the size and strength to become a solid all-around player at the point of attack and room to develop a better array of pass rush moves. No experience in coverage. Durability concerns. Fits as a 4-3 RDE or 3-4 rush OLB.

NFL comparisons: Demarcus Ware, Leonard Little

CONNOR BARWIN (Cincinnati) // 6’3”, 256

Quick, athletic with a high motor. Inexperience shows in some inconsistency in multiple areas – leverage, pass rush, instincts. Smart and driven enough to overcome most of the issues related to experience. May be too small to fit on the strong side end in a 4-3, but could work at either 3-4 OLB or 4-3 RDE. Could get TE snaps as well.

NFL comparison: Mike Vrabel, Shaun Phillips

Clay Matthews (see 4-3 LB prospects above) and Cody Brown could also fit in this group.

Jene Bramel said:

JAMES LAURINAITIS (Ohio State) // 6’1”, 244

One of the most well-rounded ILB prospects available. Praised for his size, speed, pursuit, instincts, football intellect and fundamental play. Many reports have qualifiers – average range, struggles to disengage from blocks, not particularly aggressive at the point of attack – and give the impression that he’ll be a solid performer but never a star. Considered an ILB prospect, but could work at WLB, too.

NFL comparisons: Tedy Bruschi, a more instinctive Channing Crowder

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Terrific work, as always Jene.Maybe it's me, but Laurinaitis jumps out as more comparible to Paul Posluszny than anyone else I can think of. Possibly even Dan Connor, but that one seems a bit too stereotypical. Guys who excel mostly because of instincts and football IQ instead of elite measureables.

Another former Ohio State MLB, Chris Spielman comes to mind, but that is a lofty comparison and would likely be Laurinaitis' ceiling.

I wonder about these rookies coming in. If anyone has seen them play and could add some information about them it would be much appreciated.Stephen Hodge, TCU 6’0” 234 4.54 40Here are Blooms thoughts on him. He has him ranked 10 for outside linebackers.

Hodge played a Roy Williams-esque “in the box safety” position for TCU which won’t translate to the NFL, but he’s a natural playmaker who will make an impact even if he’s just a specialist. He’s a huge hitter and a very instinctive blitzer who hits with a thud. Hodge’s lack of man coverage skills relegated him to LB in the pros, but he had the best workout numbers of the S/LB tweeners.Why He’ll Succeed: He’s a thumper vs. the run and he’ll light the fuse of his defense.Why He’ll Fail: He doesn’t have a natural position in an NFL defense.Bonus: Was a force on special teams earlier in his career

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What I am thinking is if he is a sound tackler but struggles in coverage would that make him a canidate as a 2 down MLB? Until his coverage abilities improve. He would have a lot of speed and decent enough size as long as you have solid tackles in front of him.

4-3 ends and commentary:

The list of prospective all-around 4-3 end talent is short this season, but there are a number of interesting names that will come off the board between rounds 3 and 6 that could develop into productive players in the right system.

MICHAEL JOHNSON (Georgia Tech) // 6’6”, 266

Impressive combination of athleticism and size. Explosive first step. Inconsistent effort and production. Does not anchor well against the run and gets pushed around at the point of attack. May be athletic enough to handle some OLB responsibility, but effort is a significant limiting factor. Best fit is probably as a 4-3 weak side end.

NFL comparisons: Mathias Kiwanuka, Julius Peppers

ROBERT AYERS (Tennessee) // 6’3”, 272

Not an elite athlete, but does everything well. Plays with leverage and pursues down the line against the run. Gets off the ball quickly and finishes pass rush. May struggle to gain the edge on pass rush, but motor and anticipation may make up for his lack of edge rush. Has the work ethic to broaden his array of pass rush moves. Could fit on either side of a 4-3 front.

NFL comparisons: Will Smith, Tamba Hali

PAUL KRUGER (Utah) // 6’4”, 263

All around prospect. Plays with good leverage and sheds blocks well for his size. Succeeds by anticipating the snap and playing with great effort rather than an above-average explosive burst. Instinctive and plays faster than he looks. Has also been looked at as a potential 3-4 OLB. Could fit on either side of a 4-3 and is versatile enough to handle a hybrid role.

NFL comparison: Patrick Kerney

Others of note: Brandon Williams (Texas Tech), Lawrence Sidbury (Richmond)

3-4 end and DT prospects and commentary:

This group is going to become more and more important to those in deep leagues and those that require tackles in coming seasons. The resurrection of the 3-4 and a potentially growing trend of 4-3 teams looking for size as well as penetration ability at tackle might change the complexion of the DE and DT prospect group.

In this draft, there are a few interesting names that may develop into productive NFL players and productive fantasy players in the boxscore. Among the 3-4 defensive end prospects, Tyson Jackson heads the list but he may not have the pass rush ability to force himself into the conversation as a 40-6 guy. The most intriguing 3-4 end prospect may be Jarron Gilbert, who’s got the ability to play a productive 5-tech in a 3-4 or 3-tech in a 4-3 front. Opportunity and scheme could push him into the top five defensive end prospects for IDP owners.

Among the defensive tackle prospects, guys with penetrating skill sets like Peria Jerry, Ziggy Hood and Fili Moala are the most promising players for box score potential, assuming they are drafted by teams that will use them in a 3-tech scheme. But it’s worth watching BJ Raji and some of the other space eater talents in tackle heavy leagues. With ten teams playing some form of 3-4 front, ignoring the man-mountain nose tackles becomes more difficult. It’s also worth noting that some of the tackle prospects that have some ability to penetrate might end up in a 1-gap 3-4 scheme. A guy like Moala in a 1-gap 3-4 DE role becomes a very interesting player for box score numbers.

There is a huge group of safety prospects in this draft; unfortunately the vast majority have major question marks in either run support or coverage. Any of them could succeed in the right scheme and opportunity. The list of late round draft picks and UDFA that have been big box score producers is long -- Gibril Wilson, Chris Horton, Nedu Ndukwe, Yeremiah Bell, etc, etc -- and there'll undoubtedly be a name or two whose scouting report suggests a limited talent who puts up very nice numbers in his career. Rather than profile all 10-15 of these guys, I'll just wait until the weekend to give more detailed thoughts in the context of the defense they're drafted into.

There are a few names that are worth watching very closely in this group, however. Players with solid all-around skill sets that should get a chance to start at some point.

Louis Delmas may be the most intriguing. He's a little small (5'11", 202 at the combine), but plays bigger in run support and should be able to handle most coverage responsibilities. If he goes to a team who'll use him in the box enough to provide some reasonable tackle opportunity, he could put up numbers. William Moore, Patrick Chung and Rashad Johnson may not be far behind. It's unlikely any have the elite run support or coverage skill or the combination of size and speed to become a stud all-around talent, but they all have a chance to be productive in the right situation.