Biabreakable
Footballguy
I use a combination of pre nfl rankings (talent based) with nfl draft position and apply VBD principles using a 3 year rolling window. I don't make precise projections especialy with so much still unknown but I do consider a range I might expect each player to perform in if they are successful. How likely I expect their success to be is another factor. Using draft history by position you can get an idea of a players success rate for their position by the round they were drafted in. This is just a factor not the end all be all.
These are rookies. 1st of all I want guys who can make a team. But if the players role on the team looks small or supporting I have to take that into consideration. What is the players real upside? Countered by odds the player has to get such an opportunity? I still don't have hard numbers for this. That is going to take me months. But I do have a general idea of what to expect as a best case scenario. There is no floor here since that is zero. This causes my picks to be riskier sometimes but I am looking for guys I can start. Replacement level players need a lot of upside. A longshot opportunity player with talent is often worth the risk over a stop gap player in a better situation. Either one could bust.
I have a hard time with replacement level players on the same team in similar roles. That is just one more player they have to compete with and it can be hard to read the tea leaves on what the teams plans may be for these players other than having a need for depth at the position. RB WR LB and DB are taken for special teams sometimes. My leagues give points for returns so that boosts thei value somewhat but not if that is the only role they play.
For example Coffee and Sheets. Both backup RB players to Gore a decent upside situation. Coffee was drafted early 3rd round. Sheets wasn't even drafted but I liked Sheets talent more pre draft. More than likely the 49ers are right and Coffee will beat out Sheets but it is not a given. Because of this I have Coffee lower than I would if I thought he was anything more than a stop gap solution. Even recognizing that he could have a very strong string of games at some point should gore miss time. And most likely the backup over Sheets. I see Coffee as a guy the 9ers will always be looking to upgrade. And they might have found one in Sheets. My ranking still has Coffee higher but they both got knocked down a great deal so to the uncertainty. Maybe Sheets will only play ST. If I knew that I might have Coffee higher and Sheets might not be on my list at all.
I understand really liking these players. I am ushualy a glass is half full kind of guy. And if your only drafting rookies then that is all that's there. But I think it is important to remember what these guys are up against for compitition with veteran players already on their team. You have to expect to wait for a rookie to become startable for you if they ever do. But I don't like to wait too long. If I draft a guy early I expect to get somthing out of them by year 2. If I don't I might be trading that guy for someone who will or for rookie picks to try again to get someone useful for my team by year 2.
I love this time of year! So much unknown yet so many exciting possibilities. Anyhow my rankings as of right now. I am always changing these.
TIER 1
1 RB Knowshon Moreno, DEN - Day one starter and a complete RB. Weapons at WR to keep defense honest. Great offensive line. Hard to ask for much more here. Upside to be a RB1 as a rookie. If there is substaintial RBBC I will eat my hat.
2 WR Michael Crabtree, SF - I like the way he attacks the ball. Huge hands. I also really like Singletary and comments he made leading up to the draft as far as what the 9ers are looking for and what they want to do. WR1 upside and a player I think will at worst be a WR2 by his 2nd year.
3 RB Chris Wells, ARI - Will start and be only the 3rd concern for the defense after Boldin and Fitz. Lots of yards and TD as long as he is healthy. Work ethic and durability a concern. Not known how well he will do as a reciever. Some think he will be injured. I think players who go to Ohio State plan to play in the NFL and Wells was just protecting himself. Could be the best player in this draft. Not the same upside as Moreno unless he becomes active as a reciever which I think is doubtful. RB2 with RB1 upside.
TIER 2
4 RB Donald Brown, IND - He may be a safer pick than Wells and a more versitle player. I cannot write off Addai just yet though. I still waver on this pick and considering moving him down. I do really like Brown however and he has Edge upside in this offense especialy without Marvin taking so many targets.
5 WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK - Sick speed. I keep hearing people talk about him not being able to catch. I did not see much of that on highlights for sure. What I did see is a player who can do a great job of adjusting to the ball when going deep. Hands looked pretty soft to me and he can grab difficult passes around the goal line as well. He didn't look like a very good runner but I don't see why the Raiders would use him that way when they could have him going deep. I wonder about his stamina. How well he does late in games. But based on the measurables he is in great shape and stamina shouldn't be a problem.
6 WR Percy Harvin, MIN I'm still not sure exactly how the Vikings will use him. I am speculating on a lot of screens and slants. Really talented but a charecter risk. He should beat out Berrian for the most targets by year 2 if he stays out of trouble. WR2 with WR1 upside. Or bust because he cannot stay out of trouble.
7 WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI - Possibly the Eagles future #1 WR. Which will be valuable as long as McNabb/Reid are there. Should get WR3 numbers as a minimum unless the Eagles were very wrong. Upside for WR1 numbers as long as they stay a passing team. He seemed more raw and less natural as a WR to me than Nicks, DHB and Robiskie. This pick is more about the Eagles offense than how I see Maclin's talent translating.
8 WR Hakeem Nicks, NYG - This will be a very good player for the Giants. I don't see WR1 upside but should compete and get enough opportunity for WR2 numbers eventualy. I think he will start right away but his reps might be limited. Should get more red zone looks than Steve Smith but I see Smith getting more targets.
TIER 3
9 QB Matthew Stafford, DET - He has Calvin. There is no where for this team to go but up. The offense will still play a lot of catch up with the defense needing a lot of help still. I am hoping he does not play too much in year one unless the offensive line is ready.
10 QB Mark Sanchez, NYJ - Not a jets fan and I think they will try to play more ball control with him at least for awhile. He has a lot of talent. Will probably start at some point this year if he isn't the starter already. Good supporting cast. A QB2 with QB1 upside with a WR upgrade.
11 RB Shonn Greene, NYJ - Might have to wait a year but Jones cannot keep going forever can he? If he does he would be poster boy for mileage vs. age argument. I see Washington still having a role here if the Jets resign him. He is a free agent in 2010 Grene should at worst be a COP this year with a decent path to starting in 2010. Greene is not known as a reciever so not a complete player but could still get a lot of action in a ball control offense. RB2 with RB1 upside. I see Greene as a player the Jets will look to upgrade down the line for a more complete RB. But they will likely give Greene a chance for a year or 2.
12 RB LeSean McCoy, PHI - I could see Westbrook keeping this guy on the bench for possibly another 2 years. In a great situation though. Very young player.
13 WR Kenny Britt, TEN - I think this guy has a lot of talent. But so did Calico. The best WR in this offense was Mason. It's all about the hands. Fisher doesen't like low % plays. I believe in Fisher being able to coach these guys. They still need a QB and I am doubtful that VY is the answer. I think Britt has similar talent to Bowe however. He is a great blocker which will keep him on the field a lot. I expect WR3 numbers by year 2 but this guy has enough upside to perform like a WR2.
14 WR Brian Robiskie, CLE - Stable WR here with a chance be #1 target if Edwards moves on or continues to struggle. The Browns have a very good offensive line now as they continued to add to it with picking Center Alex Mack in the 1st round this year. Robiske may have limited upside of a WR2 but he is one of the safer bets to reach that level by year 2.
15 TE Jared Cook, TEN - I don't think it is that long before he is the #2 passing target in this offense. He will compete with Britt for #1 TE is traditionaly a big part of this offense. I believe in Fisher being able to coach these guys. I think they will compliment each other well also. I see Cook as a TE2 by year 2 with TE1 upside. Probably not top 5 but a decent starter.
16 QB Josh Freeman, TB - Don't expect anything the 1st year. QB2 by year 2 with some upside for a good year after that.
To me these are the top offensive prospects. I don't see any other players with clear paths to starting that will be useful in FF by year 2. Obviously there will be. But these 16 are imo the safest bets to starting soon.
TIER 4
17 Rey Maualuga - Bengals - I think he will be able to play 3 downs eventualy. Should out-tackle Rivers long term. The defense has really struggled and high tackle opportunity here.
18 Laurinatis - Rams - Not as gifted as Rey but a solid player on another struggling team. Rams should at least have a running game though which hurts tackle opportunity.
19 RB Andre Brown, NYG - Has Jacobs, Bradshaw and Ware ahead of him. But has enough talent to possibly beat out Ware. Jacobs a injury risk.
20 Rashad Jennings, JAX - Should compete with Jones to share carries with MJD. Fred had a pretty nice share for Jennings to compete for. I don't see MJD getting substaintaly more carries without Fred around. He does an awful lot for this offesne already.
21 TE Brandon Pettigrew, DET - I think he has limited upside as a reciever but he should get a lot of targets anyways. A TE2.
22 Curry - Seahawks - Best LB of this group? Should be. Doesen't mean he will be. Leroy Hill resigned with the team.
23 QB Nate Davis, SF - Possible starter in 2-3 years for a team that may have an improved passing offense with Crabtree now. I like this guy a lot more now that Singletary had some imput in getting him for the 49ers. Perhaps one of the more overlooked players around right now.
24 Matthews - Packers - I think they got a good player here. Some of the lower rated pass rushers may end up being better though.
25 RB Gartrell Johnson, SD - This guy can play. Backup to LT. Sproles might not be around next season. If you own LT you might consider him higher.
26 Clint Sintim LB - Giants - there is a lot of compitition here for playing time. I don't think the Giants are happy with Pierce though and may want him to move to a 3rd down role. Stintim could be a 2 down MLB and possibly still used on blitz packages on 3rd down. I almost think I should have him a lot higher. But there are a lot of good players on the Giants who can do these things.
27 Cushing - Texans - I'm thinking a player like Greenway for his upside. LB2-3.
28 QB Pat White, MIA - Players Parcells takes always interest me. This pick could be a steal if he becomes their QB and I may have him too low here.
29 Alphonso Smith, CB, DEN - Rookie CB who should start opposite Champ = buko opportunity. When Champ leaves Smith is likely #1
At this point of the draft you might want to look at covering other positions. For example taking Louis Murphy if you already took DHB. I think the talent + opportunity combination has fallen off here. But I am probably missing some guys. To me this is the end of teir 4.
TIER 5
30 TE Chase Coffman, CIN - Good all around player. Better reciever than I think the Bengals have had under Lewis. With Ocho having issues and Housh gone there may be more targets to the TE worked in. I wouldn't assume Coles fills Housh role completly. Coles isn't nearly as tough and won't make as many catches.
31 WR Jarett Dillard, JAX - I like this guys intangibles. Don't see him being on the field much when they may want a better blocking WR on most sets. If he can improve in this area I would like him a lot more.
32 Orakpo - redskins - Has help around him and should develop into a startable DE. If designated at LB that might hurt his value.
33 TE Cornelius Ingram, PHI - Another Eagles TE who has injury issues. Ok I like the numbers when these guys are healthy.
34 WR Juaquin Iglesias, CHI - I think this guy could make himself a Cutler favorite right away for his willingness to catch everything. I don't know if he can earn a start here though. Who will be the starting WR for the Bears? I see this guy being like Michael Robinson for a couple years if he is tough enough. Not as a player but production wise.
35 WR Austin Collie, IND WR3 in a high powered offense.
36 RB Bernard Scott, CIN - Another problem child. I see no reason why he won't compete with Benson for carries though as long as he stays out of trouble. Has talent though.
37 RB Glen Coffee, SF - Should get some COP carries and the back up to Gore. Unless another player beats him out for that role.
38 Everette Brown DE - CAR - I like this guys upside. Peppers needs to be replaced. Brown might be the answer.
39 WR Johnny Knox, CHI - This guy has a lot of speed and Cutler is pretty good. Probably competing with Hester.
40 WR Brandon Tate, NE - If your not willing to be paitent with this guy don't draft him. But has high upside if your willing to carry him for 3 years.
41 William Moore, S, ATL - Maybe too much underdog hopefulness on my part. With Boley and Brooking both gone now there is more opportunity for a SS here.
42 RB James Davis, CLE - I am not real impressed with this guy as a player. Pick is only because of opportunity.
43 WR Louis Murphy - OAK - There is opportunity for a starting WR in Oakland. If you drafted DHB you might want to consider getting this guy too to cover him.
44 TE Shawn Nelson, BUF - Nelson can be a good recieving option for a young QB. For now he will just be asked to help out blocking for the most part I would expect. Too many targets in Buffalo right now. Once TO is gone then I think he could get more opportunity. TE2 by year 3?
At this point of the draft it really becomes about need for most teams or upside for teams with needs filled already. I don't see any of these players being starters in FF leagues soon. This is also where I need to do more digging. I will have more formed opinions about these players after some training camp and preseason.
TIER 6
45 S Michael Mitchell, OAK - LOL
46 Patrick Chung, S, NE
47 RB Cedric Peerman, BAL
48 RB Kory Sheets SF
49 OLB/DE Ayers - Broncos
50 WR Mike Thomas, JAX
50 TE James Casey, HOU
51 Cody Brown OLB - Cardinals
52 S Louis Delmas, DET
53 WR Deon Butler, SEA - Possible starting WR for the Hawks down the line. This is a guy like all the others ahead of him you could consider as early
as pick 30 if your heavily invested in the Seahawk WR and believe in covering them.
54 Maybin DE/OLB - Bills
55 DE Michael Johnson, CIN
56 Kruger DE/OLB - Ravens
57 OLB Larry English, SD - If Merriman is healthy I'm not sure about his opportunity.
58 Veikune OLB - Browns
59 Stephen McGee, QB, DAL
60 TE Travis Beckum, NYG
61 WR Derrick Williams, DET - Possible WR2 for the Lions in a couple years. Which might be pretty decent with the other players Smith and Pettigrew not
big parts of the passing game. The #2 target opposite CJ could be a very productive player if Stafford lives up to his billing.
62 CB D.J. Moore, CHI - Could be a solid player in the Bears cover 2. Tillman and Vasher are getting older.
63 RB Javon Ringer, TEN
64 RB Marion Lucky, BENGLAS
65 ILB Jason Williams, DAL
66 Devin Moore, RB, SEA
67 CB Vontae Davis, MIA
68 WR Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE
69 WR Patrick Turner, MIA
70 Marcus Freeman LB - CHI
71 DeAndre Levy MLB - DET
72 RB Mike Goodson, CAR
I think it is really hard to explain all the reasons why one might have one player ahead of another. A lot of this for me just comes from so many years of doing this. And there are plenty of times where I am really wrong lol. But thought you all might find my perspective on this interesting and I will try to explain where you might see holes in my thinking if you would be so kind to point it out to me.
I still have another draft that hasn't started yet. But I feel confident in all of those guys level of knowledge that this list might hurt them more than help them lol. But this is my honest take on it right now.
These are rookies. 1st of all I want guys who can make a team. But if the players role on the team looks small or supporting I have to take that into consideration. What is the players real upside? Countered by odds the player has to get such an opportunity? I still don't have hard numbers for this. That is going to take me months. But I do have a general idea of what to expect as a best case scenario. There is no floor here since that is zero. This causes my picks to be riskier sometimes but I am looking for guys I can start. Replacement level players need a lot of upside. A longshot opportunity player with talent is often worth the risk over a stop gap player in a better situation. Either one could bust.
I have a hard time with replacement level players on the same team in similar roles. That is just one more player they have to compete with and it can be hard to read the tea leaves on what the teams plans may be for these players other than having a need for depth at the position. RB WR LB and DB are taken for special teams sometimes. My leagues give points for returns so that boosts thei value somewhat but not if that is the only role they play.
For example Coffee and Sheets. Both backup RB players to Gore a decent upside situation. Coffee was drafted early 3rd round. Sheets wasn't even drafted but I liked Sheets talent more pre draft. More than likely the 49ers are right and Coffee will beat out Sheets but it is not a given. Because of this I have Coffee lower than I would if I thought he was anything more than a stop gap solution. Even recognizing that he could have a very strong string of games at some point should gore miss time. And most likely the backup over Sheets. I see Coffee as a guy the 9ers will always be looking to upgrade. And they might have found one in Sheets. My ranking still has Coffee higher but they both got knocked down a great deal so to the uncertainty. Maybe Sheets will only play ST. If I knew that I might have Coffee higher and Sheets might not be on my list at all.
I understand really liking these players. I am ushualy a glass is half full kind of guy. And if your only drafting rookies then that is all that's there. But I think it is important to remember what these guys are up against for compitition with veteran players already on their team. You have to expect to wait for a rookie to become startable for you if they ever do. But I don't like to wait too long. If I draft a guy early I expect to get somthing out of them by year 2. If I don't I might be trading that guy for someone who will or for rookie picks to try again to get someone useful for my team by year 2.
I love this time of year! So much unknown yet so many exciting possibilities. Anyhow my rankings as of right now. I am always changing these.
TIER 1
1 RB Knowshon Moreno, DEN - Day one starter and a complete RB. Weapons at WR to keep defense honest. Great offensive line. Hard to ask for much more here. Upside to be a RB1 as a rookie. If there is substaintial RBBC I will eat my hat.
2 WR Michael Crabtree, SF - I like the way he attacks the ball. Huge hands. I also really like Singletary and comments he made leading up to the draft as far as what the 9ers are looking for and what they want to do. WR1 upside and a player I think will at worst be a WR2 by his 2nd year.
3 RB Chris Wells, ARI - Will start and be only the 3rd concern for the defense after Boldin and Fitz. Lots of yards and TD as long as he is healthy. Work ethic and durability a concern. Not known how well he will do as a reciever. Some think he will be injured. I think players who go to Ohio State plan to play in the NFL and Wells was just protecting himself. Could be the best player in this draft. Not the same upside as Moreno unless he becomes active as a reciever which I think is doubtful. RB2 with RB1 upside.
TIER 2
4 RB Donald Brown, IND - He may be a safer pick than Wells and a more versitle player. I cannot write off Addai just yet though. I still waver on this pick and considering moving him down. I do really like Brown however and he has Edge upside in this offense especialy without Marvin taking so many targets.
5 WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK - Sick speed. I keep hearing people talk about him not being able to catch. I did not see much of that on highlights for sure. What I did see is a player who can do a great job of adjusting to the ball when going deep. Hands looked pretty soft to me and he can grab difficult passes around the goal line as well. He didn't look like a very good runner but I don't see why the Raiders would use him that way when they could have him going deep. I wonder about his stamina. How well he does late in games. But based on the measurables he is in great shape and stamina shouldn't be a problem.
6 WR Percy Harvin, MIN I'm still not sure exactly how the Vikings will use him. I am speculating on a lot of screens and slants. Really talented but a charecter risk. He should beat out Berrian for the most targets by year 2 if he stays out of trouble. WR2 with WR1 upside. Or bust because he cannot stay out of trouble.
7 WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI - Possibly the Eagles future #1 WR. Which will be valuable as long as McNabb/Reid are there. Should get WR3 numbers as a minimum unless the Eagles were very wrong. Upside for WR1 numbers as long as they stay a passing team. He seemed more raw and less natural as a WR to me than Nicks, DHB and Robiskie. This pick is more about the Eagles offense than how I see Maclin's talent translating.
8 WR Hakeem Nicks, NYG - This will be a very good player for the Giants. I don't see WR1 upside but should compete and get enough opportunity for WR2 numbers eventualy. I think he will start right away but his reps might be limited. Should get more red zone looks than Steve Smith but I see Smith getting more targets.
TIER 3
9 QB Matthew Stafford, DET - He has Calvin. There is no where for this team to go but up. The offense will still play a lot of catch up with the defense needing a lot of help still. I am hoping he does not play too much in year one unless the offensive line is ready.
10 QB Mark Sanchez, NYJ - Not a jets fan and I think they will try to play more ball control with him at least for awhile. He has a lot of talent. Will probably start at some point this year if he isn't the starter already. Good supporting cast. A QB2 with QB1 upside with a WR upgrade.
11 RB Shonn Greene, NYJ - Might have to wait a year but Jones cannot keep going forever can he? If he does he would be poster boy for mileage vs. age argument. I see Washington still having a role here if the Jets resign him. He is a free agent in 2010 Grene should at worst be a COP this year with a decent path to starting in 2010. Greene is not known as a reciever so not a complete player but could still get a lot of action in a ball control offense. RB2 with RB1 upside. I see Greene as a player the Jets will look to upgrade down the line for a more complete RB. But they will likely give Greene a chance for a year or 2.
12 RB LeSean McCoy, PHI - I could see Westbrook keeping this guy on the bench for possibly another 2 years. In a great situation though. Very young player.
13 WR Kenny Britt, TEN - I think this guy has a lot of talent. But so did Calico. The best WR in this offense was Mason. It's all about the hands. Fisher doesen't like low % plays. I believe in Fisher being able to coach these guys. They still need a QB and I am doubtful that VY is the answer. I think Britt has similar talent to Bowe however. He is a great blocker which will keep him on the field a lot. I expect WR3 numbers by year 2 but this guy has enough upside to perform like a WR2.
14 WR Brian Robiskie, CLE - Stable WR here with a chance be #1 target if Edwards moves on or continues to struggle. The Browns have a very good offensive line now as they continued to add to it with picking Center Alex Mack in the 1st round this year. Robiske may have limited upside of a WR2 but he is one of the safer bets to reach that level by year 2.
15 TE Jared Cook, TEN - I don't think it is that long before he is the #2 passing target in this offense. He will compete with Britt for #1 TE is traditionaly a big part of this offense. I believe in Fisher being able to coach these guys. I think they will compliment each other well also. I see Cook as a TE2 by year 2 with TE1 upside. Probably not top 5 but a decent starter.
16 QB Josh Freeman, TB - Don't expect anything the 1st year. QB2 by year 2 with some upside for a good year after that.
To me these are the top offensive prospects. I don't see any other players with clear paths to starting that will be useful in FF by year 2. Obviously there will be. But these 16 are imo the safest bets to starting soon.
TIER 4
17 Rey Maualuga - Bengals - I think he will be able to play 3 downs eventualy. Should out-tackle Rivers long term. The defense has really struggled and high tackle opportunity here.
18 Laurinatis - Rams - Not as gifted as Rey but a solid player on another struggling team. Rams should at least have a running game though which hurts tackle opportunity.
19 RB Andre Brown, NYG - Has Jacobs, Bradshaw and Ware ahead of him. But has enough talent to possibly beat out Ware. Jacobs a injury risk.
20 Rashad Jennings, JAX - Should compete with Jones to share carries with MJD. Fred had a pretty nice share for Jennings to compete for. I don't see MJD getting substaintaly more carries without Fred around. He does an awful lot for this offesne already.
21 TE Brandon Pettigrew, DET - I think he has limited upside as a reciever but he should get a lot of targets anyways. A TE2.
22 Curry - Seahawks - Best LB of this group? Should be. Doesen't mean he will be. Leroy Hill resigned with the team.
23 QB Nate Davis, SF - Possible starter in 2-3 years for a team that may have an improved passing offense with Crabtree now. I like this guy a lot more now that Singletary had some imput in getting him for the 49ers. Perhaps one of the more overlooked players around right now.
24 Matthews - Packers - I think they got a good player here. Some of the lower rated pass rushers may end up being better though.
25 RB Gartrell Johnson, SD - This guy can play. Backup to LT. Sproles might not be around next season. If you own LT you might consider him higher.
26 Clint Sintim LB - Giants - there is a lot of compitition here for playing time. I don't think the Giants are happy with Pierce though and may want him to move to a 3rd down role. Stintim could be a 2 down MLB and possibly still used on blitz packages on 3rd down. I almost think I should have him a lot higher. But there are a lot of good players on the Giants who can do these things.
27 Cushing - Texans - I'm thinking a player like Greenway for his upside. LB2-3.
28 QB Pat White, MIA - Players Parcells takes always interest me. This pick could be a steal if he becomes their QB and I may have him too low here.
29 Alphonso Smith, CB, DEN - Rookie CB who should start opposite Champ = buko opportunity. When Champ leaves Smith is likely #1
At this point of the draft you might want to look at covering other positions. For example taking Louis Murphy if you already took DHB. I think the talent + opportunity combination has fallen off here. But I am probably missing some guys. To me this is the end of teir 4.
TIER 5
30 TE Chase Coffman, CIN - Good all around player. Better reciever than I think the Bengals have had under Lewis. With Ocho having issues and Housh gone there may be more targets to the TE worked in. I wouldn't assume Coles fills Housh role completly. Coles isn't nearly as tough and won't make as many catches.
31 WR Jarett Dillard, JAX - I like this guys intangibles. Don't see him being on the field much when they may want a better blocking WR on most sets. If he can improve in this area I would like him a lot more.
32 Orakpo - redskins - Has help around him and should develop into a startable DE. If designated at LB that might hurt his value.
33 TE Cornelius Ingram, PHI - Another Eagles TE who has injury issues. Ok I like the numbers when these guys are healthy.
34 WR Juaquin Iglesias, CHI - I think this guy could make himself a Cutler favorite right away for his willingness to catch everything. I don't know if he can earn a start here though. Who will be the starting WR for the Bears? I see this guy being like Michael Robinson for a couple years if he is tough enough. Not as a player but production wise.
35 WR Austin Collie, IND WR3 in a high powered offense.
36 RB Bernard Scott, CIN - Another problem child. I see no reason why he won't compete with Benson for carries though as long as he stays out of trouble. Has talent though.
37 RB Glen Coffee, SF - Should get some COP carries and the back up to Gore. Unless another player beats him out for that role.
38 Everette Brown DE - CAR - I like this guys upside. Peppers needs to be replaced. Brown might be the answer.
39 WR Johnny Knox, CHI - This guy has a lot of speed and Cutler is pretty good. Probably competing with Hester.
40 WR Brandon Tate, NE - If your not willing to be paitent with this guy don't draft him. But has high upside if your willing to carry him for 3 years.
41 William Moore, S, ATL - Maybe too much underdog hopefulness on my part. With Boley and Brooking both gone now there is more opportunity for a SS here.
42 RB James Davis, CLE - I am not real impressed with this guy as a player. Pick is only because of opportunity.
43 WR Louis Murphy - OAK - There is opportunity for a starting WR in Oakland. If you drafted DHB you might want to consider getting this guy too to cover him.
44 TE Shawn Nelson, BUF - Nelson can be a good recieving option for a young QB. For now he will just be asked to help out blocking for the most part I would expect. Too many targets in Buffalo right now. Once TO is gone then I think he could get more opportunity. TE2 by year 3?
At this point of the draft it really becomes about need for most teams or upside for teams with needs filled already. I don't see any of these players being starters in FF leagues soon. This is also where I need to do more digging. I will have more formed opinions about these players after some training camp and preseason.
TIER 6
45 S Michael Mitchell, OAK - LOL
46 Patrick Chung, S, NE
47 RB Cedric Peerman, BAL
48 RB Kory Sheets SF
49 OLB/DE Ayers - Broncos
50 WR Mike Thomas, JAX
50 TE James Casey, HOU
51 Cody Brown OLB - Cardinals
52 S Louis Delmas, DET
53 WR Deon Butler, SEA - Possible starting WR for the Hawks down the line. This is a guy like all the others ahead of him you could consider as early
as pick 30 if your heavily invested in the Seahawk WR and believe in covering them.
54 Maybin DE/OLB - Bills
55 DE Michael Johnson, CIN
56 Kruger DE/OLB - Ravens
57 OLB Larry English, SD - If Merriman is healthy I'm not sure about his opportunity.
58 Veikune OLB - Browns
59 Stephen McGee, QB, DAL
60 TE Travis Beckum, NYG
61 WR Derrick Williams, DET - Possible WR2 for the Lions in a couple years. Which might be pretty decent with the other players Smith and Pettigrew not
big parts of the passing game. The #2 target opposite CJ could be a very productive player if Stafford lives up to his billing.
62 CB D.J. Moore, CHI - Could be a solid player in the Bears cover 2. Tillman and Vasher are getting older.
63 RB Javon Ringer, TEN
64 RB Marion Lucky, BENGLAS
65 ILB Jason Williams, DAL
66 Devin Moore, RB, SEA
67 CB Vontae Davis, MIA
68 WR Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE
69 WR Patrick Turner, MIA
70 Marcus Freeman LB - CHI
71 DeAndre Levy MLB - DET
72 RB Mike Goodson, CAR
I think it is really hard to explain all the reasons why one might have one player ahead of another. A lot of this for me just comes from so many years of doing this. And there are plenty of times where I am really wrong lol. But thought you all might find my perspective on this interesting and I will try to explain where you might see holes in my thinking if you would be so kind to point it out to me.
I still have another draft that hasn't started yet. But I feel confident in all of those guys level of knowledge that this list might hurt them more than help them lol. But this is my honest take on it right now.
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Just a 
note that the Giants have a hole at SSLB and Sintim was drafted to fill that role.
Just a 
note that the Giants have a hole at SSLB and Sintim was drafted to fill that role.In addition the Giants coaching staff is reportedly very high on Goff who they drafted last year to take over the middle once Pierce is gone. I would be very surprised to see Stinim line up at all MLB.
