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Site Projections Posted (1 Viewer)

David Dodds

David Dodds

Administrator
My first cut of these things

All criticism welcome here on these. I have about 40 hours into these numbers, but I am sure I have some things that don't make any sense at all.

Jason Wood has also released his numbers.

PK and Def projections will be coming within days and then we will move on to the VBD and DRaft Dominator (likely by the middle of next week)

 
rzrback77 said:
Appreciate the timely effort!
Click to expand...
This is why we do a magazine. It forces me to get off my butt and get going here. The first set of these kills me every year though as I deal with what changed, what will the philosophy be of the new coaches, what the depth charts look like, etc. And we are basically flying blind with limited info out there. But still I think these begin to frame certain situations.
 
:bag:

The Jets WR totals look low to me. Are you expecting such a conservative offense that they total less than 150 receptions between them? Clowney in particular looks very low.

 
David - curious why you have such a small increase in carries for Jaguars RB (and no Greg Jones) and not many more attempts for Garrard when if the carries were that low he would be throwing more. Seems like they want to put more emphasis on the running game.

 
I'm also curious about the Redskins passing offense showing no increase from last year's numbers, with another year in the WCO under their belt. It seems like even a pessimist should have some modest increases built in there.

 
Sweeeet. Thanks David. I know these always kill you and you always do a fantastic job. Projections like this are the backbone of everything we do. Everything from the Schedule Maker to the Rushing Matchups to the trivial stuff like Random Shots all sit on the shoulders of the projections. If they're not solid, the rest crumbles. Great job to you and to Jason. Huge :blush:

J

 
Joe Bryant said:
Sweeeet. Thanks David. I know these always kill you and you always do a fantastic job. Projections like this are the backbone of everything we do. Everything from the Schedule Maker to the Rushing Matchups to the trivial stuff like Random Shots all sit on the shoulders of the projections. If they're not solid, the rest crumbles. Great job to you and to Jason. Huge :loco:

J
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At first I thought that said "Hugs". Whew.
 
David Dodds said:
My first cut of these things

All criticism welcome here on these. I have about 40 hours into these numbers, but I am sure I have some things that don't make any sense at all.

Jason Wood has also released his numbers.

PK and Def projections will be coming within days and then we will move on to the VBD and DRaft Dominator (likely by the middle of next week)
Click to expand...
David,Great job as usual. :whistle:

Question for you (and Jason, for that matter). Why would you both have Donovan McNabbs YPA under 7.0? I see 60% completions and nearly identical attempt numbers, but the YPA is just 6.6 (Jason has 6.7). He was at 6.9 last year and the 4 years prior he was 7.0 or more.

Is there a reason you both think that there will be a downgrade? I'd tend to think otherwise with the additions of Maclin and DeSean the past two seasons.

Thanks for the reply.

 
I don't understand all the carries for Leonard in Cincinnati. Over the last 10 weeks last year, Benson got 200 carries and the rest of the Cincy RBs got 23. Are you expecting failure by or an injury to Benson?

 
The sooner the DD is up and running even with baseline projections the better. For those with offseason activity (dynasty, etc) we can use that to watch the WW much easier. Hope the tool is ready soon!

Cowboys offense ... wow scary bad season if those projections hold true.

INT's seem high across the board for QB's and overall yardage seems low for RB's and WR's.

Oucho Stinko looks like a steal this year in ADP vs. current projections.

Do you see McGahee hurt? If healthy I'd think he'd get more carries.

 
BuckeyeArt said:
I don't understand all the carries for Leonard in Cincinnati. Over the last 10 weeks last year, Benson got 200 carries and the rest of the Cincy RBs got 23. Are you expecting failure by or an injury to Benson?
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Beat me to it. I'm also curious about projecting Benson for 230 carries. Prorating his carries from last year would equate to somewhere around 285. Is the Leonard addition that significant?ETA: Also curious about Kevin Smith losing carries. Last year he hit ~240 as a rookie. Now, you're projecting 220...just curious.
 
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Anthony Gonzalez caught 57 passes last season despite only starting two games. Furthermore a number of the Colt's three receiver sets included Harrison, Wayne, and Clark. I believe that your estimates for him are too low.

 
At first glance, Peterson's rushing yards look a bit light. (If you can call 1,500+ yards "light" -- that's the scary part).

 
Important point - you guys keep offering feedback like this. We want questions like the ones you're asking as they help us sharpen and define the projections. Please just be cool as you do it (like you've been doing here). In other words, less "any idiot knows that Benson will...." and more "Why don't you think Benson will....?" type stuff. We need that kind of feedback. Thanks.

J

 
Good values

Qb's

Jason Campbell

Sage Rosenfeld

Trent Edwards

Rb's

R. Brown

R. Grant

C. Benson

C. Wells

J. Stewart

F. Jones

Wr's

W. Welker

Roy Williams

A. Gonzalez

B. Berrian

D. Hester

 
Jason and David,

Donald Driver is projected to be under 1,000 yards for the first time in many years. He's posted 1K yards each of the last five seasons and been a Top 30 WR that entire time - yet his projections (and ADP) say otherwise.

Do you project the Green Bay passing game to go down, other WRs to steal targets, or another reason for the diminished numbers?

I'll hang up and listen. :popcorn:

 
In the 10 years I've been following you and Joe, I've yet to figure out why you refuse to make your QB projections to mirror anything close to reality.

 
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I guess I'll start...I believe projections are very dangerous and I simply clicked on the Redksins so I'll start there, specifically the WRs...

Santana Moss-you have him listed for 76/996/6...year before he posted 79/1044/6...basically you are saying he will simply repeat his numbers form last year. But S.Moss doesn't really post back to back seasons that ever similar. Let me show you.

2003: 74/1105/10

2004: 45/838/5...major drop form the season before

2005: 84/1483/9...major step forward form the year before, his best of his career

2006: 55/790/6...went down a lot

2007: 61/808/3...similar

2008: 79/1044/6...big uptick formt he year before.

I guess you are going out on a limb that he can actually produce back to back seasons of 75+ ctcahes but really you just reposted form last season...(Chorus of boos), sorry guys.

AWE: You are posting about the same numbers he had a year ago but you give Devin Thomas almost zero chance to imrove in year 2. If the SKins loved AWE as their #2 I don't think thye would have brought in 2 2nd rounders at WR last year, and since Malcolm Kelly has major knee problems and only 3 catches last year, Devin Thomas seems prime to take a step up this season.

Enough Skins...let me pick out someone else at random.

How bout the Pitt WRs...

You have Holmes and Ward very close in numbers...why? Ward has beaten him by a lot in catches every year since Holmes came into the league, I guess this is the season he finally over takes Ward? You also seem to overlook that about 40-50+ receptions typically get thrown to the WR3 in this offense yet you only have Limas Sweed with 23 catches.

I just picked those 2 teams by random and I completely appreciate the work you pour into these stats. I noticed you didn't have any RBs rushing for over 13 TDs...I'll take the field and the over.

I counted 18 QBs you have slated for 20+ TDs...in 2008:11, 2007:13, 2006:10...I'll take the under as I am not sure there has ever been a season with 18 QBs tossing 20+ TDs, and along those lines I have to think this skews the WRs numbers a bit across the board.

Sorry to be such a wet rag, again DD does a spot on job of these and I am more inclined to peek at his final stats than just about anyone else but projections are a very dangerous game IMO.

 
vandyt said:
In the 10 years I've been following you and Joe, I've yet to figure out why you refuse to make your QB projections to mirror anything close to reality.
Click to expand...
I do not understand what you are even saying in your statement, but I will use this to speak to historical norms. I feel these are critical to make sure a set of projections is based in reality. Most other sites do not do this check and those numbers are usually outside expectations. Here are the league numbers I craft my projections around.Pass Completions:

2008 - 10,089

2007 - 10,425

2006 - 9,796

2009 Projected - 10,163

Pass Attempts:

2008 - 16,536

2007 - 17,045

2006 - 16,389

2009 Projected - 16,673

Pass Percentage:

2008 - 61.0%

2007 - 61.2%

2006 - 59.8%

2009 Projected - 60.0%

Passing Average:

2008 - 6.54

2007 - 6.86

2006 - 6.85

2009 Projected - 6.73

Passing TDs:

2008 - 646

2007 - 720

2006 - 648

2009 Projected - 695

Interceptions:

2008 - 465

2007 - 534

2006 - 520

2009 Projected - 496

Rush Attempts:

2008 - 14,110

2007 - 13,804

2006 - 14,324

2009 Projected - 14,153

Rush Yards:

2008 - 59,340

2007 - 56,768

2006 - 60,094

2009 Projected - 58,553

Rushing Average:

2008 - 4.21

2007 - 4.11

2006 - 4.20

2009 Projected - 4.14

Rushing TDs:

2008 - 476

2007 - 386

2006 - 423

2009 Projected - 454

 
David Dodds said:
vandyt said:
In the 10 years I've been following you and Joe, I've yet to figure out why you refuse to make your QB projections to mirror anything close to reality.
Click to expand...
I do not understand what you are even saying in your statement, but I will use this to speak to historical norms. I feel these are critical to make sure a set of projections is based in reality. Most other sites do not do this check and those numbers are usually outside expectations. Here are the league numbers I craft my projections around.Pass Completions:

2008 - 10,089

2007 - 10,425

2006 - 9,796

2009 Projected - 10,163

Pass Attempts:

2008 - 16,536

2007 - 17,045

2006 - 16,389

2009 Projected - 16,673

Pass Percentage:

2008 - 61.0%

2007 - 61.2%

2006 - 59.8%

2009 Projected - 60.0%

Passing Average:

2008 - 6.54

2007 - 6.86

2006 - 6.85

2009 Projected - 6.73

Passing TDs:

2008 - 646

2007 - 720

2006 - 648

2009 Projected - 695

Interceptions:

2008 - 465

2007 - 534

2006 - 520

2009 Projected - 496

Rush Attempts:

2008 - 14,110

2007 - 13,804

2006 - 14,324

2009 Projected - 14,153

Rush Yards:

2008 - 59,340

2007 - 56,768

2006 - 60,094

2009 Projected - 58,553

Rushing Average:

2008 - 4.21

2007 - 4.11

2006 - 4.20

2009 Projected - 4.14

Rushing TDs:

2008 - 476

2007 - 386

2006 - 423

2009 Projected - 454
Click to expand...
Here is the part you simply cannot project but it is the core of what makes these projections so dangerous for redrafters...INJURIES. We could break all 32 starting QBs down on a per game basis and I bet the 20+ TDs you handed out to 18 QBs might actually happen but since most years there are never more than about 10-12 QBs that even clear 20 TDs it throws everything out of whack. You cannot believe that there will be that many QBs throwing for all those TDs...Also I find that in May almost every owner, site runner, blogger tends to way over pump the numbers because everyone can make a case for everyone doing well.

Detroit: Sure at first you think they will be terrible but then you say to yourself wait a minute, Calvin plus decent WR2/3 with BJ and RCurry, Kev Smith and MoMo in the backfield, CPepp and the #1 pick under center, plus they are playing from behind, new weapon at TE.

And the point is they simply cannot all be good. If a team has a bad defense you think they must be pass happy to stay in it...but the reality is it won't be like that. Much better use of time is to delve into the trenches and the OL to see who can establish the run, withstand a tougher schedule, has the LT/RT in place to protect the QB...I like a non statistical approach much better than running stats over and over. I used to run stats when I first played FF, and I lost a lot, few wins but a lot of losses, and then I scratch my head at the end of the seaosn and wonder what went wrong, When I simply started to analyze and not get so bogged down in the numbers I found I played much better and won more leagues. I don't expect you to agree with me DD, but there are a lot of different ways to get to the rewards and stat projection is one of them but its a tool I find weighs me down at times.

I still want to empasize for those that love stats that David Dodds is one of the best in the biz, I loved his stuff way before he was with JB, and as much as I say I do not use stats, fact is during the season I like to pull up the weeklies to gauge if my assumptions are on the right track or not.

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
Here is the part you simply cannot project but it is the core of what makes these projections so dangerous for redrafters...INJURIES.
Click to expand...
:nerd:What a revelation! NFL players get injured! :goodposting:Hey, wait- another revelation! You can't predict or project injuries by and large! :lmao: Damn those projections!!!!!!!1
 
Ministry of Pain said:
...I like a non statistical approach much better than running stats over and over. I used to run stats when I first played FF, and I lost a lot, few wins but a lot of losses, and then I scratch my head at the end of the seaosn and wonder what went wrong, When I simply started to analyze and not get so bogged down in the numbers I found I played much better and won more leagues...
Click to expand...
stats like length of a pizza? Not surprised numbers bog you down.Seriously though, good projections are one of many tools you should use. They are a way to transfer your opinions into something less abstract that can actually be used to formulate opinions. Projections are a dynamic attention directing tool, and should be continually updated as new opinions are formed and observations are made. All of your "soft" analysis can and will be rolled up into any good projection package, and the exercise of making projections causes you to understand the hows and why's.Further, projections provide a means to customize and tailor your opinions toward specific league variables - not something easily done if you are simply compiling lists and rankings. Projections allow you to go deeper r as well - they provide a means for evaluating how much better you like RB3 vs RB4. It's not enough to say I like one better than the other, it's critically important to know exactly how big the drop-offs are.
 
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Thanks DD! It's going to be odd that this is the one that immediately stuck out in my mind, but w/e:

Malcom Floyd SD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 194 12.1 3 37.4

Seems pretty low to me, imho. Reasoning?

 
David Dodds said:
vandyt said:
In the 10 years I've been following you and Joe, I've yet to figure out why you refuse to make your QB projections to mirror anything close to reality.
Click to expand...
I do not understand what you are even saying in your statement, but I will use this to speak to historical norms. I feel these are critical to make sure a set of projections is based in reality. Most other sites do not do this check and those numbers are usually outside expectations. Here are the league numbers I craft my projections around.Pass Completions:

2008 - 10,089

2007 - 10,425

2006 - 9,796

2009 Projected - 10,163

Pass Attempts:

2008 - 16,536

2007 - 17,045

2006 - 16,389

2009 Projected - 16,673

Pass Percentage:

2008 - 61.0%

2007 - 61.2%

2006 - 59.8%

2009 Projected - 60.0%

Passing Average:

2008 - 6.54

2007 - 6.86

2006 - 6.85

2009 Projected - 6.73

Passing TDs:

2008 - 646

2007 - 720

2006 - 648

2009 Projected - 695

Interceptions:

2008 - 465

2007 - 534

2006 - 520

2009 Projected - 496

Rush Attempts:

2008 - 14,110

2007 - 13,804

2006 - 14,324

2009 Projected - 14,153

Rush Yards:

2008 - 59,340

2007 - 56,768

2006 - 60,094

2009 Projected - 58,553

Rushing Average:

2008 - 4.21

2007 - 4.11

2006 - 4.20

2009 Projected - 4.14

Rushing TDs:

2008 - 476

2007 - 386

2006 - 423

2009 Projected - 454
Click to expand...
Sorry you felt I was unclear. Your projections for QBs (and WRs/TEs) every year are Glenn Beck-levels of crazy conservative. They are useless in gauging actual performance because you generally understate your top performers by 15% or more than what the top performers of that year will end up at. To illustrate this point using your 2009 #s: # of QBs in 2008 over or equal to 7.7 YPA: 10

2007: 7

2006: 6

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of QBs over 4000 yards in 2008: 6

2007: 4

2006: 5

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of Qbs over 30 Tds in 2008: 3

2007: 4

2006: 1

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of QBs over 575 attempts in 2008: 3

2007: 3

2006: 3

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

 
T Bell said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Here is the part you simply cannot project but it is the core of what makes these projections so dangerous for redrafters...INJURIES.
Click to expand...
:lmao:What a revelation! NFL players get injured! :shrug:Hey, wait- another revelation! You can't predict or project injuries by and large! :jawdrop: Damn those projections!!!!!!!1
Click to expand...
Really? It's a perfectly fair question or angle on the stats. 18 QB with 20+ TDs is too high. You did nothing to dispute it, you just decided to mock. Got it, thanks.
 
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vandyt said:
In the 10 years I've been following you and Joe, I've yet to figure out why you refuse to make your QB projections to mirror anything close to reality.
Click to expand...
Hi vandy,In exactly what way do you feel which specific QBs are unrealistic?J
 
vandyt said:
David Dodds said:
vandyt said:
In the 10 years I've been following you and Joe, I've yet to figure out why you refuse to make your QB projections to mirror anything close to reality.
Click to expand...
I do not understand what you are even saying in your statement, but I will use this to speak to historical norms. I feel these are critical to make sure a set of projections is based in reality. Most other sites do not do this check and those numbers are usually outside expectations. Here are the league numbers I craft my projections around.Pass Completions:

2008 - 10,089

2007 - 10,425

2006 - 9,796

2009 Projected - 10,163

Pass Attempts:

2008 - 16,536

2007 - 17,045

2006 - 16,389

2009 Projected - 16,673

Pass Percentage:

2008 - 61.0%

2007 - 61.2%

2006 - 59.8%

2009 Projected - 60.0%

Passing Average:

2008 - 6.54

2007 - 6.86

2006 - 6.85

2009 Projected - 6.73

Passing TDs:

2008 - 646

2007 - 720

2006 - 648

2009 Projected - 695

Interceptions:

2008 - 465

2007 - 534

2006 - 520

2009 Projected - 496

Rush Attempts:

2008 - 14,110

2007 - 13,804

2006 - 14,324

2009 Projected - 14,153

Rush Yards:

2008 - 59,340

2007 - 56,768

2006 - 60,094

2009 Projected - 58,553

Rushing Average:

2008 - 4.21

2007 - 4.11

2006 - 4.20

2009 Projected - 4.14

Rushing TDs:

2008 - 476

2007 - 386

2006 - 423

2009 Projected - 454
Click to expand...
Sorry you felt I was unclear. Your projections for QBs (and WRs/TEs) every year are Glenn Beck-levels of crazy conservative. They are useless in gauging actual performance because you generally understate your top performers by 15% or more than what the top performers of that year will end up at. To illustrate this point using your 2009 #s: # of QBs in 2008 over or equal to 7.7 YPA: 10

2007: 7

2006: 6

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of QBs over 4000 yards in 2008: 6

2007: 4

2006: 5

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of Qbs over 30 Tds in 2008: 3

2007: 4

2006: 1

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of QBs over 575 attempts in 2008: 3

2007: 3

2006: 3

# you're projecting in 2009: 1
Click to expand...
Do you believe in regression to the mean?
 
Chase Stuart said:
vandyt said:
David Dodds said:
vandyt said:
In the 10 years I've been following you and Joe, I've yet to figure out why you refuse to make your QB projections to mirror anything close to reality.
Click to expand...
I do not understand what you are even saying in your statement, but I will use this to speak to historical norms. I feel these are critical to make sure a set of projections is based in reality. Most other sites do not do this check and those numbers are usually outside expectations. Here are the league numbers I craft my projections around.Pass Completions:

2008 - 10,089

2007 - 10,425

2006 - 9,796

2009 Projected - 10,163

Pass Attempts:

2008 - 16,536

2007 - 17,045

2006 - 16,389

2009 Projected - 16,673

Pass Percentage:

2008 - 61.0%

2007 - 61.2%

2006 - 59.8%

2009 Projected - 60.0%

Passing Average:

2008 - 6.54

2007 - 6.86

2006 - 6.85

2009 Projected - 6.73

Passing TDs:

2008 - 646

2007 - 720

2006 - 648

2009 Projected - 695

Interceptions:

2008 - 465

2007 - 534

2006 - 520

2009 Projected - 496

Rush Attempts:

2008 - 14,110

2007 - 13,804

2006 - 14,324

2009 Projected - 14,153

Rush Yards:

2008 - 59,340

2007 - 56,768

2006 - 60,094

2009 Projected - 58,553

Rushing Average:

2008 - 4.21

2007 - 4.11

2006 - 4.20

2009 Projected - 4.14

Rushing TDs:

2008 - 476

2007 - 386

2006 - 423

2009 Projected - 454
Click to expand...
Sorry you felt I was unclear. Your projections for QBs (and WRs/TEs) every year are Glenn Beck-levels of crazy conservative. They are useless in gauging actual performance because you generally understate your top performers by 15% or more than what the top performers of that year will end up at. To illustrate this point using your 2009 #s: # of QBs in 2008 over or equal to 7.7 YPA: 10

2007: 7

2006: 6

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of QBs over 4000 yards in 2008: 6

2007: 4

2006: 5

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of Qbs over 30 Tds in 2008: 3

2007: 4

2006: 1

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of QBs over 575 attempts in 2008: 3

2007: 3

2006: 3

# you're projecting in 2009: 1
Click to expand...
Do you believe in regression to the mean?
Click to expand...
To which mean?
 
vandyt said:
Chase Stuart said:
Do you believe in regression to the mean?
Click to expand...
To which mean?
Click to expand...
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=370I wrote that a couple of years ago; if you're not familiar with the concept, it might be worth a read. Here's a key passage:

The reasoning behind “regression to the mean” is iron-clad: when an impressive feat is hit, there’s a good bit of luck involved. Sometimes, it’s hit by someone who is actually as good as his stats (although this becomes less likely the more impressive the feat is). But other times it’s by a player who is a little lucky, and sometimes it’s by a player who’s really lucky.

Now NFL players aren’t computer programs or dice, but the same theory applies. And we see these results every year in the NFL. No one projects LaDainian Tomlinson to rush for 28 TDs again, because we know his true ability isn’t 28 TDs per season. To reach such a ridiculous result, a good bit of luck had to be involved. And regression to the mean becomes more likely in the NFL than when flipping a coin, because of strength of schedule. Many impressive feats involve general luck, and also luck due to facing an easy schedule. Every year, some team plays the easiest schedule in the league, and as a result, will achieve results they couldn’t normally achieve without a ton of luck. But since strength of schedule is incredibly inconsistent from year to year, we see this effect ride on top of regression to the mean to push down the great seasons. Because if you’re going to throw for 49 TDs in a season, you’ve got to be: a) awesome; b) have lots of luck; and c) have a really easy schedule. And only one of those traits is likely to be there the next season.
Click to expand...
The point is, when a QB throws 600 times in a season, a lot of things that are unlikely to happen, happen. We shouldn't project unlikely things to happen, even if in the aggregate, it will happen a few times.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
T Bell said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Here is the part you simply cannot project but it is the core of what makes these projections so dangerous for redrafters...INJURIES.
Click to expand...
:thumbup:What a revelation! NFL players get injured! :shrug:Hey, wait- another revelation! You can't predict or project injuries by and large! :X Damn those projections!!!!!!!1
Click to expand...
Really? It's a perfectly fair question or angle on the stats. 18 QB with 20+ TDs is too high. You did nothing to dispute it, you just decided to mock. Got it, thanks.
Click to expand...
Last year 17 TEAMS passed for 20+ TDs, and four others passed for 18-19 TDs. Obviously several of those involved more than one QB due to the starter getting injured.How do you predict QB injuries? If you cannot, you have to give those TDs to the starter, or split them between two QBs on most of the teams. Neither solution works perfectly, but splitting them is especially useless, imo.
 
Also, regarding Santana Moss.... how do you account for up and down stats? Sometimes there is a reason to season totals moving around when the players situation is about the same, and in Santana's case it is due to injury.

Santana averaged about 57 yards per game in 2006 and 2007, then 65 yards per game in 2008. But he missed two games in each of 2006 and 2007, so his TOTAL stats were lower than in 2008. Dodds has him at 62 yards per game for 2009... right around his normal production.

Again, injuries are usually not predictable.

 
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Chase Stuart said:
The point is, when a QB throws 600 times in a season, a lot of things that are unlikely to happen, happen. We shouldn't project unlikely things to happen, even if in the aggregate, it will happen a few times.
Click to expand...
:lmao: Things change fast in the NFL. You can predict teams to be above or below a league average in one particular area, but it is awfully tough to predict outlier occurrences. Maybe it's likely that Arizona passes a ton again, since they have such great WRs... do you assume they reach last year's passing totals? Now they may have their bell-cow RB, so maybe they become more balanced... but it can go either way. So you predict that they pass less than last year, but still above the league average... Do this with all the teams and you end up with the normalized projections Dodds gives us. Think of projections as the middle of a range of values... most of the projections will be in the neighborhood of the numbers Dodds gives us, but there will be a lot of misses. A rash of O-line injuries usually crushes offenses. Star players miss time. Players step up, players disappoint.... it's impossible to account for all these things.The result: normalized projections.The projections make an excellent starting point for your own customization, though.
 
Lott said:
Chase Stuart said:
The point is, when a QB throws 600 times in a season, a lot of things that are unlikely to happen, happen. We shouldn't project unlikely things to happen, even if in the aggregate, it will happen a few times.
Click to expand...
:lmao: Things change fast in the NFL. You can predict teams to be above or below a league average in one particular area, but it is awfully tough to predict outlier occurrences. Maybe it's likely that Arizona passes a ton again, since they have such great WRs... do you assume they reach last year's passing totals? Now they may have their bell-cow RB, so maybe they become more balanced... but it can go either way. So you predict that they pass less than last year, but still above the league average... Do this with all the teams and you end up with the normalized projections Dodds gives us. Think of projections as the middle of a range of values... most of the projections will be in the neighborhood of the numbers Dodds gives us, but there will be a lot of misses. A rash of O-line injuries usually crushes offenses. Star players miss time. Players step up, players disappoint.... it's impossible to account for all these things.The result: normalized projections.The projections make an excellent starting point for your own customization, though.
Click to expand...
:pickle:
 
vandyt said:
Sorry you felt I was unclear. Your projections for QBs (and WRs/TEs) every year are Glenn Beck-levels of crazy conservative. They are useless in gauging actual performance because you generally understate your top performers by 15% or more than what the top performers of that year will end up at. To illustrate this point using your 2009 #s:

# of QBs in 2008 over or equal to 7.7 YPA: 10

2007: 7

2006: 6

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of QBs over 4000 yards in 2008: 6

2007: 4

2006: 5

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of Qbs over 30 Tds in 2008: 3

2007: 4

2006: 1

# you're projecting in 2009: 1

# of QBs over 575 attempts in 2008: 3

2007: 3

2006: 3

# you're projecting in 2009: 1
Click to expand...
Mathematically speaking, the issue here is that the expected value of a maximum of a bunch of random variables is not the same as the maximum of the expected values of those same variables. It is in no way inconsistent to believe that someone will have 1500 receiving yards this year while not projecting any particular individual to do so.An example: every single week of NFL play for the last three years, some team has won a game by 20 or more points. Every single week. But Vegas almost never sets a line as high as 20. And that's because the questions "do you think some team will win by at least 20 this week?" and "is there a particular team you think will win by 20 this week?" usually have different answers.

 
Jeff Pasquino said:
David Dodds said:
My first cut of these things

All criticism welcome here on these. I have about 40 hours into these numbers, but I am sure I have some things that don't make any sense at all.

Jason Wood has also released his numbers.

PK and Def projections will be coming within days and then we will move on to the VBD and DRaft Dominator (likely by the middle of next week)
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David,Great job as usual. :rolleyes:

Question for you (and Jason, for that matter). Why would you both have Donovan McNabbs YPA under 7.0? I see 60% completions and nearly identical attempt numbers, but the YPA is just 6.6 (Jason has 6.7). He was at 6.9 last year and the 4 years prior he was 7.0 or more.

Is there a reason you both think that there will be a downgrade? I'd tend to think otherwise with the additions of Maclin and DeSean the past two seasons.

Thanks for the reply.
Click to expand...
Hey Jeff,First let me say that these projections are going to change A LOT between now and mid August. Like David, I throw this first batch out there with the expectation there will be a lot of tweaks needed.

As to the McNabb question specifically, that's a bit different. While you're correct that McNabb's YPA has been 7.0 and 6.9 in the last two years, I prefer to use AY/A as a baseline. In that regard, McNabb's AY/A was 6.4 last year and his career AY/A is 6.3. :bag:

Either way, I have McNabb as an elite fantasy prospect, and view him as a top-5 passer right now.

 
Am I right in reading this first set of projections that there's an initial bias towards relatively low changes in situation from 2008? For example that young RBs won't win the starting job if they didn't have it at the end of the year - that kind of thing?

 
vandyt said:
In the 10 years I've been following you and Joe, I've yet to figure out why you refuse to make your QB projections to mirror anything close to reality.
Click to expand...
Just to follow up a bit more on this, because it gets mentioned every year (and also every week when the weekly projections start rolling out).I hope you didn't think my previous response was too glib. You are aboslutely 100% right that Dodds' projections do not mirror anything close to reality on issues like "how many QBs will throw for 30 TDs?" or "how many receiving yards will the league's leading receiver have?" But Dodds is not trying to answer those questions.

I don't want to speak for Dodds, but I guess I will anyway. If you ask him these questions, these are the answers I think he'd give:

Who do you think is most likely to lead the league in receiving yards? Calvin Johnson.

Do you think the league leader in receiving yards will have more than 1400 yards? Yes.

Do you think Calvin Johnson will have more than 1400 yards? No.

There is nothing inconsistent about this.

Here's some data:

in the last four years, there have been 41 WRs who Dodds has projected over 1000 yards and who have ended up playing 16 games in that season. On average, Dodds has underprojected those players by 9 yards. That's pretty darn close. There have been 16 QBs who he has projected to throw 25 or more TD passes, and who have ended up playing 16 games in that season. On average, he has overprojected those players by 1.9 TDs per season. Again, pretty close and, more importantly, no evidence that Dodds should systematically increase his projections for the top players.

Code: 
+---------------------+------+-----------+--------+--------+| name				| year | projected | actual | under? |+---------------------+------+-----------+--------+--------+| Randy Moss		  | 2005 |	  1415 |   1005 |		|| Larry Fitzgerald	| 2008 |	  1321 |   1431 | x	  || Chad Johnson		| 2007 |	  1306 |   1440 | x	  || Torry Holt		  | 2006 |	  1302 |   1188 |		|| Reggie Wayne		| 2008 |	  1292 |   1145 |		|| Reggie Wayne		| 2007 |	  1264 |   1510 | x	  || Lee Evans		   | 2007 |	  1262 |	849 |		|| Randy Moss		  | 2008 |	  1260 |   1008 |		|| Terrell Owens	   | 2008 |	  1256 |   1052 |		|| Anquan Boldin	   | 2006 |	  1256 |   1203 |		|| Chad Johnson		| 2005 |	  1250 |   1432 | x	  || Chad Johnson		| 2006 |	  1215 |   1369 | x	  || Donald Driver	   | 2006 |	  1209 |   1295 | x	  || Braylon Edwards	 | 2008 |	  1209 |	877 |		|| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2007 |	  1201 |   1143 |		|| Calvin Johnson	  | 2008 |	  1189 |   1331 | x	  || Chris Chambers	  | 2006 |	  1177 |	677 |		|| Torry Holt		  | 2008 |	  1150 |	796 |		|| Marvin Harrison	 | 2006 |	  1148 |   1366 | x	  || Terrell Owens	   | 2006 |	  1147 |   1180 | x	  || Reggie Wayne		| 2006 |	  1144 |   1310 | x	  || Torry Holt		  | 2007 |	  1131 |   1189 | x	  || Andre Johnson	   | 2008 |	  1126 |   1575 | x	  || Santana Moss		| 2008 |	  1120 |   1044 |		|| Reggie Wayne		| 2005 |	  1120 |   1055 |		|| Roy Williams		| 2006 |	  1086 |   1310 | x	  || Marques Colston	 | 2007 |	  1058 |   1202 | x	  || Braylon Edwards	 | 2007 |	  1058 |   1289 | x	  || Larry Fitzgerald	| 2005 |	  1050 |   1409 | x	  || Rod Smith		   | 2005 |	  1050 |   1105 | x	  || Ashley Lelie		| 2005 |	  1050 |	770 |		|| Donald Driver	   | 2005 |	  1045 |   1221 | x	  || Dwayne Bowe		 | 2008 |	  1036 |   1022 |		|| Steve Smith		 | 2005 |	  1030 |   1563 | x	  || Derrick Mason	   | 2006 |	  1021 |	750 |		|| Roddy White		 | 2008 |	  1015 |   1382 | x	  || Eddie Kennison	  | 2006 |	  1005 |	860 |		|| Greg Jennings	   | 2008 |	  1003 |   1292 | x	  || Jerricho Cotchery   | 2008 |	  1003 |	858 |		|| Laveranues Coles	| 2005 |	  1000 |	845 |		|| Deion Branch		| 2005 |	  1000 |	998 |		|+---------------------+------+-----------+--------+--------+
Code: 
+--------------------+------+-----------+--------+--------+| name			   | year | projected | actual | under? |+--------------------+------+-----------+--------+--------+| Peyton Manning	 | 2005 |		41 |	 28 |		|| Peyton Manning	 | 2006 |		33 |	 31 |		|| Peyton Manning	 | 2007 |		33 |	 31 |		|| Brett Favre		| 2005 |		30 |	 20 |		|| Peyton Manning	 | 2008 |		30 |	 27 |		|| Carson Palmer	  | 2007 |		29 |	 26 |		|| Drew Brees		 | 2008 |		29 |	 34 | x	  || Carson Palmer	  | 2006 |		28 |	 28 | x	  || Tom Brady		  | 2007 |		28 |	 50 | x	  || Drew Brees		 | 2007 |		28 |	 28 | x	  || Philip Rivers	  | 2007 |		26 |	 21 |		|| Trent Green		| 2005 |		26 |	 17 |		|| Tom Brady		  | 2005 |		26 |	 26 | x	  || Ben Roethlisberger | 2008 |		26 |	 17 |		|| Tom Brady		  | 2006 |		25 |	 24 |		|| Matt Hasselbeck	| 2005 |		25 |	 24 |		|+--------------------+------+-----------+--------+--------+
 
I looked at the Patriots projections, and essentially NE gains a 7 TD improvement from last year. I have no idea what the right amount of change should be, but I'm wondering if Brady's return might net the Pats more than 7 TD.

By comparison, the total number of offensive TD in 2007 was 64 and projected now at 47. That's also only 2 more total TD than 2006 when the Pats fielded such notables as Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel, and 90-year-old Troy Brown at receiver. That seems too low to me . . . is there some rationale to this?

 
A couple things I've noticed:

1. Jacobs has had a 5.0 ypc both of the last 2 years on over 200 carries in both. You both have him projected to drop almost half a yard to 4.6 ypc. Granted, 4.6 ypc is still excellent, but is this more of a "5.0 ypc is hard to maintain" or do you see something that is going to cause them to be less effective?

2. To David--AJ has been an absolute PPR machine the last 3 years. In 2 of the last 3 years, he's had 103 and 115 receptions. In 2007, when he was amazing but only played 9 games, he was on pace for over 106 receptions. Projecting him for only 85 receptions seems like a pretty substantial drop. Looking at the Houston team, you're projecting the QB's to throw 24 fewer attempts compared to 2008. Yet, you projected 9 fewer RB receptions, 7 fewer TE receptions, and 30 fewer WR receptions. You're also projecting a substantial drop in y/a for Schaub and the Texans passing game in general. Just curious what the thinking behind this is.

 
David Yudkin said:
I looked at the Patriots projections, and essentially NE gains a 7 TD improvement from last year. I have no idea what the right amount of change should be, but I'm wondering if Brady's return might net the Pats more than 7 TD. By comparison, the total number of offensive TD in 2007 was 64 and projected now at 47. That's also only 2 more total TD than 2006 when the Pats fielded such notables as Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel, and 90-year-old Troy Brown at receiver. That seems too low to me . . . is there some rationale to this?
Click to expand...
Hey David,I'm not sure if you were directing that just Dodds, or to me also.I currently have NE throwing 29 TDs and scoring 16 rushing TD [45 TDs]. While I understand your point that New England produced 67 TDs in 2007, I also think it's important to recognize that for what it was, a major historical outlier.In my projections workbook, I maintain per team offensive stats in all the major categories as well as running averages [currently using 6-year averages b/c I built this workbook that many seasons ago]. From 2003-2008, the Patriots have averaged 29 passing TDs and, you guessed it, 16 rushing TDs. And that includes the 50 TD passing seasons in question.So with Brady coming back from injury and the relative uncertainty we have in the middle of May given how mum the Pats organization is about injuries; I'm comfortable expecting New England to produce their normal TD production, as opposed to either last year [when the passing game was below plan while the rushing TDs were high] or their record-breaking and likely never repeatable 2007 campaign.
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
I looked at the Patriots projections, and essentially NE gains a 7 TD improvement from last year. I have no idea what the right amount of change should be, but I'm wondering if Brady's return might net the Pats more than 7 TD. By comparison, the total number of offensive TD in 2007 was 64 and projected now at 47. That's also only 2 more total TD than 2006 when the Pats fielded such notables as Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel, and 90-year-old Troy Brown at receiver. That seems too low to me . . . is there some rationale to this?
Click to expand...
Hey David,I'm not sure if you were directing that just Dodds, or to me also.I currently have NE throwing 29 TDs and scoring 16 rushing TD [45 TDs]. While I understand your point that New England produced 67 TDs in 2007, I also think it's important to recognize that for what it was, a major historical outlier.In my projections workbook, I maintain per team offensive stats in all the major categories as well as running averages [currently using 6-year averages b/c I built this workbook that many seasons ago]. From 2003-2008, the Patriots have averaged 29 passing TDs and, you guessed it, 16 rushing TDs. And that includes the 50 TD passing seasons in question.So with Brady coming back from injury and the relative uncertainty we have in the middle of May given how mum the Pats organization is about injuries; I'm comfortable expecting New England to produce their normal TD production, as opposed to either last year [when the passing game was below plan while the rushing TDs were high] or their record-breaking and likely never repeatable 2007 campaign.
Click to expand...
I have been arguing in other threads how people should NOT be expecting Brady to throw for 50 TD, and there are a number of people thinking he will come closer to that than not.As for the methodology to coming up with YOUR projections, I believe this is an apples and oranges proposition. The Pats, as consituted, are not even close to rostering the same players vs. several years ago, especially at the skill positions (save for Brady and Faulk) than the team that was rolled out 5 years ago.They have 0 of the same receivers (and the ones they have now are a HUGE upgrade to what they had), they have only one similar RB (Faulk as I mentioned), their current OL is an upgrade vs what they fielded back in the day, and they've since opened up the playbook to better utilize all the toys in the arsenal.I'm certainly not going to tell you or anyone else how to do their projections. And if I wanted to I certainly could do some on my own (I would but don't have the time available to constantly update them).But if I were to make my own for the Pats, I would suggest using the last 4 years with Brady excluding the 2007 season as half the baseline and then taking the 2007 numbers and using that for the other half. Basically, setting the bar this year for NE at half what they did between their other years and what they did in 2007.Utilizing that approach, Brady would be projected at 4271/37. Admittedly, that TD total still seems a little high, but the point was to show that the more current numbers better reflect what the current team has accomplished and should be factored in more heavily IMO.Looking at your Pats projections, you have them scoring the same total offensive TD as 2006. Personally, I just don't see how this version of the Pats offense does not score more than that team did.
 
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