Player Spotlight: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs Options

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Dwayne Bowe Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

[dansav]

You couldn't ask for a better #2 WR on your fantasy team and you could argue he is a #1 on a team depending on league size and scoring. Last year he had 3 different QBs throwing him the ball and he still went for 86/1022/7. I see the Cassel/Bowe combo for many years to come. Last years stat line can easily be duplicated even with no Gonzo (addition by subtraction) and his red zone targets will increase. I see him going around the 12th WR of the board (Fitz,Moss,Wayne,Calvin Johnson,Andre Johnson,Boldin, TO,Jennings,Roddy White, and Colston) which put him in the 1B WR or 2nd tier bucket.

81/1101/13tds

This post has been edited by dansav: May 26 2009, 04:28 PM

[foxco]

Last year he had 3 different QBs throwing him the ball and he still went for 86/1022/12.
81/1101/13tds

Those numbers would have been top 5. He scored 7 TDs last season, not 12.

I think he'll be good but I'm not sure Gonzo leaving will help - now coverage will be focusing on him; there is no one else worthy of paying attention to. Still, he's good enough to put up strong numbers:

85, 1210, 7 TDs

[dansav]

Last year he had 3 different QBs throwing him the ball and he still went for 86/1022/12.
81/1101/13tds

Those numbers would have been top 5. He scored 7 TDs last season, not 12.

I think he'll be good but I'm not sure Gonzo leaving will help - now coverage will be focusing on him; there is no one else worthy of paying attention to. Still, he's good enough to put up strong numbers:

85, 1210, 7 TDs

oops. thanks for correcting me . I had him on my team last year too. He has 12 career TDs... I am still going with 13 tds

[SteevieG]

The fact that Gonzo is gone is cause for concern but I think Cassell is a better QB than Thigpen and the new system should fit Bowe well even with the double coverages he'll see. There is nobody opposite him worth mentioning, true. However I think the system may 'create' someone to take some of the pressure away from Bowe.

105/1250/10

This post has been edited by SteevieG: May 27 2009, 07:47 AM

[RustyFA2]

82-1111-9

The kid drops a lot of passes.

[travdogg]

82-1111-9

The kid drops a lot of passes.

Those are pretty much the same as my projections for him. I think Cassel is very overrated and will look mediocre outside of NE. But Bowe put up 1000-7 last year and as much as I dislike Cassel, he's still better than what they had last year.

[5Rings]

Bowe is going to explode this season.

a) KC is a terrible team who will be forced to throw the ball alot
b) Bowe is the only viable target with Gonzo's departure
c) Cassell should be an upgrade at the QB position

Last year Bowe had 157 targets. Gonzo had 154. Bradley was next with 62.

Unless somebody comes out of nowhere, this is gonna be the Cassell to Bowe show all year.

Bowe 120--1440--6

yes, 120 catches on close to 200 targets this season

[Mainevent]

I also believe Bowe kills it in targets this year, he will lead the league barring injury of any sort.

110 rec/1400 yards/8TDs

[Banger]

Wow, I'm optimistic about Bowe and his expectations but some of these predictions even blow me away....

I'm not a big Cassell believer but I think he'll be an improvement. I think the loss of Gonzo will help and hurt...I think he'll get all the coverage which should free up Bradley but he should be THE red zone target. Their defense will still struggle so they'll be passing the 2nd half every week. He's a great talent with little competition on a team that should throw the ball a lot so he has quite a few things going in his favor to have a very solid season.

90-1125-9.5 tds

[Winning IS Every...]

Bowe has made great strides in his first two years in the league, and should only get better. If he is going to become elite, he will need to improve on the 54% rec/target ratio. If Bowe can improve this, the sky is the limit as he has the size, speed and drive to be very good. The addition of Cassel adds stability to the QB position this year that has not been there. I will give a modest bump to his numbers for my projection this year.

95- 1150 - 8

[fightingillini]

Dwayne Bowe's fantasy prospects for 2009 are intriguing. Tremendous upside. With Tony Gonzalez being traded to ATL, Bowe becomes the undisputed #1 target in the KC offense. But I have some questions:

1) Can he beat the expected double teams?
2) How will the new KC offense come into place?
3) How quickly will he get in synch with Cassel?
4) Will another WR step up to take pressure off of Bowe?

I have no doubt that Bowe has the talent to be a upper echelon WR. BTW, some of the projections from previous posters are insane. Could he catch 100+ passes? Sure, he has that type of upside. But a lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

I would love to have this guy as my WR2. His ADP of WR11 is about right.

88 rec, 1240 yds, 9 TD

[Birdie048]

I recall watching a preseason game last year when Bowe made 2 DB's look like high school players. He made moves to get to the ball and outjumped a DB who had position. He took the angle and stretched out and took it away!

If he can get good WR2 help from Mark Bradley and if Jamal Charles out of the backfield keeps pressure on the def, he should make another step to the top 10 value (maybe top 6).

Cassel will need more than 1 target to make the offense run properly. He might lock on Bowe too much early and get picked off a few times, but Bowe will still make him look good - almost as good as he looked in NE with Randy Moss & Wes Welker.

Projection: 96 rec (160 targets) for 1350 yards with 9 TD

[Chicago Hooligan]

I think he's a great WR but I'm not on board with the high TD count many are predicting. This team sucks, and Bowe will get some garbage yards but I'm not sure how they're going to score. Still a good WR2 - anything above 1,100 / 6 TDs would be a welcome surprise to me.

[Tanner9919]

Dwayne Bowe's fantasy prospects for 2009 are intriguing. Tremendous upside. With Tony Gonzalez being traded to ATL, Bowe becomes the undisputed #1 target in the KC offense. But I have some questions:

1) Can he beat the expected double teams?
2) How will the new KC offense come into place?
3) How quickly will he get in synch with Cassel?
4) Will another WR step up to take pressure off of Bowe?

I have no doubt that Bowe has the talent to be a upper echelon WR. BTW, some of the projections from previous posters are insane. Could he catch 100+ passes? Sure, he has that type of upside. But a lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

I would love to have this guy as my WR2. His ADP of WR11 is about right.

88 rec, 1240 yds, 9 TD

so you're only projecting him to catch two more balls and only two more TD's than he did last season?!

how long will it take for Cassel and Bowe to get in sync? probably the first day of training camp, that's not going to be much of an issue.Bowe has played with scrubs and bums at QB's the past two seasons, so Cassel is a huge upgrade over all of them.Your question about which WR will step up is a good one, and I'll throw his name out there: Larry Johnson.
Haley loves to call passing plays to his RB's and I'm sure LJ's rec totals will fly off the charts this season. don't forget J. Charles!
can Bowe beat the expected double teams? isn't that what he's been doing , week in/week out ,for the past two seasons anyways?!

he's likely to post Larry Fitzgerald-like numbers
100/1400/12

[stbugs]

Wow, I am optimistic like Banger, but really surprised at the projections. I may have to rethink my keepers for my local FBG league. If he puts up close to the average here, it would be hard not to keep him.

[lyon812]

WR 10-12 seems dead-on to me. He'll have some help in Bradley and Engram, and if Bradley gets hurt, I think Bowe's talented enough to succeed regardless.

[Gopher State]

Bowe is the Calvin Johnson of 2009. He will get a ton of targets and a large amount of his yards and td's will come in the 4th quarter of games which the Chiefs are behind.

100-1250-14 td's break out year

[rzrback77]

I am happy to own Dwayne Bowe is one of the survivor leagues lookiing over these projections. I am sure that folks are applying the addition of Matt Cassell and the loss of Gonzo for their projections for of Dwayne Bowe. One interesting fact is that Bowe was third in the NFL last season in targets. I guess that it makes sense to add more targets, but I think that the 154 to Gonzo will likely find their way to Bradley, Engam, and the RBs since Bowe already averaged almost ten targets per game.

I do think that Bowe will provide value as his current ADP is WR11 and 28 overall. He definitely has the potential of a top five finiish if the Chiefs can improve just a little offensively. It is certainly tempting to grab two WRs in the first three rounds in drafts for the 09 season.

Dwayne Bowe 160 targets 90 catches 1170 yards 13.0 ypc and 10 TDs

[fightingillini]

Dwayne Bowe's fantasy prospects for 2009 are intriguing. Tremendous upside. With Tony Gonzalez being traded to ATL, Bowe becomes the undisputed #1 target in the KC offense. But I have some questions:

1) Can he beat the expected double teams?
2) How will the new KC offense come into place?
3) How quickly will he get in synch with Cassel?
4) Will another WR step up to take pressure off of Bowe?

I have no doubt that Bowe has the talent to be a upper echelon WR. BTW, some of the projections from previous posters are insane. Could he catch 100+ passes? Sure, he has that type of upside. But a lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

I would love to have this guy as my WR2. His ADP of WR11 is about right.

88 rec, 1240 yds, 9 TD

so you're only projecting him to catch two more balls and only two more TD's than he did last season?!

how long will it take for Cassel and Bowe to get in sync? probably the first day of training camp, that's not going to be much of an issue.Bowe has played with scrubs and bums at QB's the past two seasons, so Cassel is a huge upgrade over all of them.Your question about which WR will step up is a good one, and I'll throw his name out there: Larry Johnson.
Haley loves to call passing plays to his RB's and I'm sure LJ's rec totals will fly off the charts this season. don't forget J. Charles!
can Bowe beat the expected double teams? isn't that what he's been doing , week in/week out ,for the past two seasons anyways?!

he's likely to post Larry Fitzgerald-like numbers
100/1400/12

Tanner, my comments are:

1) Cassel and Bowe haven't played in a real game yet....it could take a few games to get in sync.....or it could be right away.....we aren't sure yet. Sure, Cassel is an upgrade at QB, but I don't think he's that good. I would rate him as an average starter in the NFL.
2) Tony Gonzalez took pressure off of Bowe. TG was the #1 target. Linebackers and Safeties had to roll coverage over to Gonzo. That coverage will probably shift towards Bowe. What other WR or TE on KC will scare opponents? No one as of right now.
3) Bowe had 157 targets last year and 86 receptions, for a catch % of 55%. He was 3rd in the league in targets. To get to 100 catches, you have to assume that either a) his targets increase to over 180, or b) his catch ratio increases to about 65%, or c) a combination of both. I have his YPC increasing due to Cassel at QB. Last year, Bowe averaged only 11.8 YPC. I have his number increasing to about 14.0. I am projecting his targets to be about the same....about 150. So I feel his quality of receptions will increase with Cassel, not the number of receptions.

Could he post the numbers that you projected? Yes. But I wouldn't use it as a baseline.

[todisco1]

he's likely to post Larry Fitzgerald-like numbers

Really? I wouldn't go that far.

[TheDirtyWord]

Alot of love for Dwayne Bowe.

I'm not sure I can be so quick to jump on the bandwagon. A couple of points as it relates to the Chiefs 2008 looking forward to 2009.

1) I think people are underestimating just how stale the Herm Edwards era in KC had become. A by-product of stale regimes is often times, less than 100% effort and dedication.
2) This may be a hunch, but I'm not going to annoint Matt Cassel the QB foundation building block of the new Chiefs just yet. It's one thing to look good throwing passes to Randy Moss and Wes Welker on a good team. It's another to go to a re-building effort without the same pieces in place when you have but one year of solid experience.
3) Tyler Thigpen's last 10 games statistically speaking were very good. I'd be surprised if Cassel could produce to that pace which essetially was close to a 250/2 per game average. That said, his field vision probably was extremely limited as a young QB. As such, Bowe & Gonzalez received an inordinate amount of targets.
4) Only 379 rushing attempts all year; a run ratio of 39.6%...and that was with a QB who ran the ball 62 times.

Defensively, the Chiefs gave up 440 points last season. I don't think this is a unit devoid of talent, but I think this unit lost confidence in it's leadership and thus ability to execute. New coaching regimes have a way of getting the whole organizations attention. The effort and focus gets ratcheted up. I'd be very surprised if the Chiefs were not better defensively.

Also, understanding that Todd Haley came from an offense that used the short passing game in place of the run game, he also had Kurt Warner/Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald as his tools. No matter what you think of Cassel and how much of an improvement he is over the status quo, he's a step down from what Haley had to work with last year. Same with Bowe/Engram/Bradley. Not to mention that Larry Johnson is being kicked to the curb by the general populace a bit too soon. At 30 and seemingly past his off-field issues and with a better understanding of his worth on the open market (nil), Johnson seems poised to bounce back with a season that closer resembles his 2005/2006 campaigns than the last 2 seasons.

Simply put, I don't expect Bowe's production to experience that dramatic a change at all. What they lost in the passing game in Tony Gonzalez will be made up for in other areas (run game, Engram/Bradley). He's not going to bust, but shouldn't be counted on for WR1 numbers.

Prediction: 87 Receptions, 1098 Receiving Yards, 7 TD's

[Ministry of Pain]

80/1200/8 TD

Stud

[CalBear]

Everyone is predicting equivalent or better numbers for Bowe from last year, and it's hard to argue with that. He gets a clear QB upgrade (though how much of an upgrade remains to be seen), and loses his main competition for targets. He also gets a new head coach who helped craft the league's best passing offense in Arizona last year. One might argue that the loss of Gonzo will reduce the amount of open space on the field, but considering that Bowe averaged a pedestrian 11.9 ypr in 2008 (after 14.2 in his rookie year), I can't justify bumping him down on that stat either. He's got a lot of talent, and now has the best QB of his career throwing to him, and a passing-minded coach. He looks like a candidate for a big breakout in 2009.

My projections: 90 receptions, 1200 yards, 9 TD. Good for approximately WR#9, with upside from there.

This post has been edited by CalBear: Jun 1 2009, 01:46 PM

[Chicago Hooligan]

For you guys predicting 9, 10, 12 TDs for Bowe, I'm curious how many you think Cassell will throw in 2009. More than his 21 last year? Will half or more of the TDs go to Bowe? This was true with Randy Moss - did it happen in any other offenses last season?

[Buffaloes]

All I have to say is wow to some of these projections. Did I see a 120 catch prediction in there?
I think Bowe's ceiling is about where he finished last year. I think the Chiefs will look for a more balance offensive approach and the loss of Tony Gonzalez is going to hurt Bowe as he will probably see more double teams than last year.
Add that to the fact that none of us know what Cassel will do outside of NE. Cassel was sacked quite a bit last year behind NE's OL, I doubt he fares any better behind the Chefs' OL.

84-1176-8td

This post has been edited by Buffaloes: Jun 1 2009, 03:14 PM

[CalBear]

For you guys predicting 9, 10, 12 TDs for Bowe, I'm curious how many you think Cassell will throw in 2009. More than his 21 last year? Will half or more of the TDs go to Bowe? This was true with Randy Moss - did it happen in any other offenses last season?

Kansas City, as a team, with a rag-tag collection of QBs not as good as Cassell, with Herm Edwards as coach, threw for 23 TDs last year. Tyler Thigpen completed just 54.8% of his passes and went 1-10 as a starter, but still threw 18 TDs. So yes, I think it's fair to estimate that Cassell will throw at least 20 TDs in 2009, and I can't imagine that Bowe would fail to catch most of them--there are no other established receivers on KC.

Calvin Johnson caught 12 of his team's 18 TDs. Tony Gonzalez caught 10 of KC's 23. It's not uncommon for bad teams to have one significantly productive receiver.

This post has been edited by CalBear: Jun 1 2009, 03:14 PM

[MDSkinner]

All I have to say is wow to some of these projections. Did I see a 120 catch prediction in there?
I think Bowe's ceiling is about where he finished last year. I think the Chiefs will look for a more balance offensive approach and the loss of Tony Gonzalez is going to hurt Bowe as he will probably see more double teams than last year.
Add that to the fact that none of us know what Cassel will do outside of NE. Cassel was sacked quite a bit last year behing NE's OL, I doubt he fares any better behind the Chefs' OL.

84-1176-8td

I agree with everything here and probably think Bowe will even do a little worse

90-1100-7td

If I were going to predict anything for the Chiefs this year it would be that Cassel would lead the league in number of times sacked. That O-line was terrible last year, and Thigpen was frequently running for his life. If it improves greatly (which seems unlikely unless some of the young guys step up) I could be way off base but my expectations are not so high for anyone on this offense.

[Chicago Hooligan]

Calvin Johnson caught 12 of his team's 18 TDs. Tony Gonzalez caught 10 of KC's 23. It's not uncommon for bad teams to have one significantly productive receiver.

It helps when those receivers are all-time great talents, of course. But yes, still possible for Bowe - just wondering whether people actually expect it for him.

[lyon812]

A lot depends on Bradley and Engram. When healthy, they're proven contributors that can match Gonzalez's numbers. That may seem unlikely to some, but consider that Bradley had 30 in 8 games as a starter. Doubling is the devil's game, but it puts Bradley at 60, with Engram needing to catch a paltry 30 balls to roughly approximate Gonzo's totals in catches (if not yardage). That's very reasonable.

I'm also not terribly enamored of Cassell, and think people are ignoring the possibility of Scott Mitchell syndrome.

Combine the two factors--new QB and a pair of talented WR opposite him--and I think Bowe will only slightly improve over last year, at 90-1150-7.

[CalBear]

Calvin Johnson caught 12 of his team's 18 TDs. Tony Gonzalez caught 10 of KC's 23. It's not uncommon for bad teams to have one significantly productive receiver.

It helps when those receivers are all-time great talents, of course. But yes, still possible for Bowe - just wondering whether people actually expect it for him.

It's a bit early to call Calvin Johnson an all-time great talent, don't you think? Bowe is a very talented receiver and is less than 100 yards behind Johnson for his career.

If you want to go back to 2007, Braylon Edwards caught 16 of 29 TDs, Plaxico Burress caught 12 of 23, Housh caught 12 of 26, and Colston caught 11 of 28.

[Jon_Moore]

Bowe had a heck of a season last year considering the talent around him. He at least Had Tony Gonzalez to help keep defenses from totally trying to take him out of the game. He had inconsistency from the running game, and average at best quarterback play.

Gonzalez is gone, but they've brought in Matt Cassel, who at times looked like a very good quarterback last season, patriots or not. Larry Johnson will be back in the backfield, and as long as he's there, defenses will have to remain honest. Bowe's talent alone will take him a long way towards a successful season this year.

He's a big physical reciever, who should get plenty of red zone looks with Gonzalez now out of the picture and an improved offense considering the return of Johnson and Matt Cassel.

88 Receptions
1152 Yards
8 TDs

[Forrest K.]

Will Bowe's projection drop significantly with the recent injury to Cassel?

[Abstract]

Will Bowe's projection drop significantly with the recent injury to Cassel?

I doubt it since Cassel is supposed to start on kickoff weekend. From what we're hearing in KC if Cassel is not there for the 1st game, he'll definitely be there for the next.

I'm looking for 91-1127-8

[Payne]

Will Bowe's projection drop significantly with the recent injury to Cassel?

Why would they? He didn't have a QB last year either.

[money.never.slee...]

I really like Bowe's size and ability and think he COULD break out like Roddy did 2years ago/last year or least have similar #'s.


83 - 1210 - 9 TD

[wadegarrett]

[Buffaloes]

Got to get tough, go Bowe™

[footballnerd]

85/1200/9. A lot of you are putting up Greg Jennings type numbers, which if he gets, I will be extremely happy since Bowe went much later than Greg.