Player Spotlight: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers Options

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Ben Roethlisberger Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

[by_the_sea_wanna...]

As long as the running game can pound the rock Ben won't see the TD numbers he put up in 07 again. Uptick in yards and TD's because I think the recievers will be better 1-5 this year than last.



3400 yards - 20 TD's - 14 ints - 115 yds - 2 TD

This post has been edited by by_the_sea_wannabe: May 27 2009, 07:18 AM

[The Man with the...]

Great NFL player.
Not so great Fantasy player.

Big Ben plays on a conservative offense with a bad offensive line. He won't come close to 4000 yards so he has to throw for a bunch of touchdowns to be a great fantasy quarterback. In 5 seasons he's only thrown 20 or more touchdowns once. He's good for about 100 rushing yards and a couple of touchdowns a season. Good but not great.

Personally I'd have a problem with relying on him as a starting quarterback. As a backup-matchup guy though he's as good of a choice as any.

This post has been edited by The Man with the Plan: May 27 2009, 07:33 AM

[TheDirtyWord]

Could Ben Roethlisberger be this generations Troy Aikman?

For a two-time winning SB QB, he is not generating much buzz. From a fantasy perspective, Big Ben has had but 1 solid season (2007). Whereas last year, he was clearly overvalued, I think this year he might be undervalued...

Some interesting points of note as it relates Roethlisberger's production over the years.

1) Roethlisberger's YPA is directly correlatable to the Pittsburgh rushing attack.

2004: 2464 Rushing Yards; 8.9 YPA
2005: 2223 Rushing Yards; 8.9 YPA
2006: 1992 Rushing Yards; 7.5 YPA
2007: 2168 Rushing Yards; 7.8 YPA
2008: 1690 Rushing Yards; 7.0 YPA

You can look at his completion %'s and see a similar correlation.

Even in a down year, Big Ben's YPA was a respectable 7.0, but he's been as high as 8.9. Last year was probably the first year the Steelers offense was overly dependent on Roethlisberger. Prior to that, even in his superlative 2007, there was at least a solid balance if not a over reliance on the running attack.

2006 & 2008 represent years where the Steelers ground attack was not up to their usual standard. In those years, Roethlisberger's TD & INT %'s was a combined 3.7% & 4.0%. In 2004, 2005 & 2007, when the Pittsburgh ground attack was at it's best, 7.0% & 3.2%. So I think an important question to ask will be "How good will the Steelers rushing attack be in 2009?"

Willie Parker will be in the final year of his contract which will obviously motivate him. Rashard Mendenhall should be much more of a factor and Mewelde Moore is as underrated and versatile player as there is at the RB position. The Steelers have an embarassment of riches at ths position and assuming good health, they should reclaim a Top 5 standing in the NFL.

2) Remember that toughest schedule in the NFL thing Pittsburgh had to deal with in 2008...?

Well last year, the passing defenses of the teams he played gave up an 3207.5 yards with a 6.35 YPA. Included in that group were 13 teams who ranked in the top half of the NFL in passing defense including 8 that were in the Top 11 (9 if you count Baltimore twice). In short, Roethlisberger couldn't have had a more difficult schedule to produce against and yet he accumulated 3301 passing yards and a 7.0 YPA. A quick glance at Big Ben's passing schedule this year does not look as intimidating on the surface (DET, KC, DEN, MIA appear).

One last thing...I think by winning the SB in the way he won it will help Roethlisberger reach a new level. He famously was disappointed in his performance during the Steelers first SB game. But he came up big this time. I think he might even admit, he got a bit of a monkey off his back that he placed there himself. But as he gets older, I think he'll continue to improve. He won't even be a Manning or Brady type QB because he simply won't ever get that many attempts. But I think people will overlook him based on his statistically mediocre 2008.

Prediction: 286 Completions 446 Attempts, 3439 Passing Yards 25 TD's 12 INT's 36 Rushes, 121 Rushing Yards 3 TD's

This post has been edited by TheDirtyWord: May 29 2009, 01:05 PM

[Jason Wood]

Big Ben seems to have fallen by the wayside as people debate more controversial picks. Does that mean Ben is now universally viewed as a game manager whose lone 30+ TD season was just that, an anomaly?

[TheDirtyWord]

Big Ben seems to have fallen by the wayside as people debate more controversial picks. Does that mean Ben is now universally viewed as a game manager whose lone 30+ TD season was just that, an anomaly?

I think people just feel they have a good read on who Big Ben is and maybe overall the Steelers offense.

To me, 2006 was a washout due to the accident. 2007 was his individual breakout and 2008 was his team breakout...winning the BS against a very tough schedule amidst a decent amount of injuries. I expect an individual bounceback of sorts.

[FreeBaGeL]

Big Ben seems to have fallen by the wayside as people debate more controversial picks. Does that mean Ben is now universally viewed as a game manager whose lone 30+ TD season was just that, an anomaly?

I don't really see the point in owning Big Ben in fantasy.

Unless you ever believe he's going to throw those 30+ TDs again (sure seemed like an outlier to me), then there's really no point. People will cite that he's a "safe" pick that will give you decent production from week to week. But this isn't a RB we're talking about here, those kind of guys are available on the waiver wire throughout the course of the year. And not the way that waiver wire RBs are where you have to snatch them up quick, guys outperforming Big Ben in PPG are often just sitting on the WW for weeks at a time.

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Last year the Steelers scored just 34 TD on offense, their lowest total in Roethlisberger's five seasons. In 05-07 the Steelers O averaged over 41 TD per season. I think the tough schedule and inexperienced O-line hurt Ben's fantasy production. In 2009 I expect the Steelers to have one of the best offenses in the league, but probably one that is well balanced. With plenty of options at the skill positions, a more experienced O-line and an easier schedule I think Ben will be a solid QB1 that can be drafted after the top 10-12 QBs.

3500 yards passing, 25 TD 10 INT, 100 yards rushing, 2 TD

[rzrback77]

Big Ben is a stud of a player in the real world of the NFL, but is just adequate for fantasy purposes. He is amazing at generating a big play when nothing is available and he seems to always be at this best when a big play is needed, but when you are reviewing stats I just don't see wanting him on my team.

Roethlisberger
04 14 gms 196 comp in 295 att 66.4% 2621 yds 8.9 ypa 17 TD 11 int rush 56 times for 144 yards and 1 TD FBG rank 20
05 13 gms 168 comp in 268 att 62.7% 2385 yds 8.9 ypa 17 TD 9 int rush 31 times for 69 yards and 3 TDs FBG rank 18
06 15 gms 280 comp in 459 att 59.7% 3513 yds 7.5 ypa 18 TD 23 int rush 32 times for 98 yards and 2 TDs FBG rank 12
07 15 gms 264 comp in 404 att 65.3% 3154 yds 7.8 ypa 32 TD 11 int rush 35 times for 204 yards and 2 TDs FBG rank 5
08 16 gms 280 comp in 468 att 59.8% 3308 yds 7.1 ypa 17 TD 15 int rush 34 times for 104 yards and 2 TDs FBG rank 17

His yearly rankings of 20, 18, 12, 5, and 17 tell the story. In only large leagues is he playable. Add in the fact that he does his best when the chips are down and you may play him when you shouldn't and not play him when you should because of his penchant for surprise.

09 - 15 gms 270 comp 450 att 60.0% 3375 yds 7.5 ypa 18 TD 11 int rush 35 times for 110 yards and 2 TDs somewhere around QB 15

[Just Win Baby]

Roethlisberger has never had as many as 470 passing attempts in a season. And as recently as 2007, he only had 404 (in 15 games). That's the bottom line fact that stops him from being as good a fantasy player as he is an NFL player.

As a result of that, in 72 career regular season games, he has had fewer than 200 passing yards in 35 of them, roughly half, while he has reached 300+ yards just 7 times.

And he has thrown for multiple TDs only 31 times (~43%), so he is not often able to make up for the low yardage with TDs. It seems pretty clear that the passing TDs in 2007 were a fluke... his TD percentage was 7.9%, compared to 3.8% in 2006 and 3.6% in 2008.

He is entering his 6th year, so there is no real reason to expect any kind of breakthrough improvement in Ben's performance (not that he needs to improve from an NFL standpoint). I don't see any reason to think the Steelers will not again have both a dominant defense and a dominant running game... so there is no reason to think his attempts will suddenly jump up to a level that is even average. In short, there is no reason not to expect more of the same.

Projection:
16 games
292 completions on 465 passing attempts (62.8%) for 3488 passing yards (7.5 ypa), 19 passing TDs, 14 interceptions, and 45 sacks
35 rushing attempts for 115 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs

[SexyRexy]

Remember that toughest schedule in the NFL thing Pittsburgh had to deal with in 2008...?

Well last year, the passing defenses of the teams he played gave up an 3207.5 yards with a 6.35 YPA. Included in that group were 13 teams who ranked in the top half of the NFL in passing defense including 8 that were in the Top 11 (9 if you count Baltimore twice). In short, Roethlisberger couldn't have had a more difficult schedule to produce against and yet he accumulated 3301 passing yards and a 7.0 YPA. A quick glance at Big Ben's passing schedule this year does not look as intimidating on the surface (DET, KC, DEN, MIA appear).

I think this is the key to deciphering Big Ben's production this year. 2007 looks like the outlier but last year's schedule was historically difficult. I know predicting schedule can be folly but taking last year vs the fact that half of his games this year are against DET, CIN, CLE, KC, OAK and DEN makes me wonder. I don't know if that means that PIT will win those games running 50 times or that Ben will clean up vs. subpar defenses.

Has anyone looked at Ben's stats either against bad teams or in games that PIT wins? I'm wondering what effect the schedule will have this year and if there's a split that we can exploit.

[HoTnickZ]

Remember that toughest schedule in the NFL thing Pittsburgh had to deal with in 2008...?

Well last year, the passing defenses of the teams he played gave up an 3207.5 yards with a 6.35 YPA. Included in that group were 13 teams who ranked in the top half of the NFL in passing defense including 8 that were in the Top 11 (9 if you count Baltimore twice). In short, Roethlisberger couldn't have had a more difficult schedule to produce against and yet he accumulated 3301 passing yards and a 7.0 YPA. A quick glance at Big Ben's passing schedule this year does not look as intimidating on the surface (DET, KC, DEN, MIA appear).

I think this is the key to deciphering Big Ben's production this year. 2007 looks like the outlier but last year's schedule was historically difficult. I know predicting schedule can be folly but taking last year vs the fact that half of his games this year are against DET, CIN, CLE, KC, OAK and DEN makes me wonder. I don't know if that means that PIT will win those games running 50 times or that Ben will clean up vs. subpar defenses.

Has anyone looked at Ben's stats either against bad teams or in games that PIT wins? I'm wondering what effect the schedule will have this year and if there's a split that we can exploit.

This is a great question.

[Bankerguy]

Last year the Steelers scored just 34 TD on offense, their lowest total in Roethlisberger's five seasons. In 05-07 the Steelers O averaged over 41 TD per season. I think the tough schedule and inexperienced O-line hurt Ben's fantasy production. In 2009 I expect the Steelers to have one of the best offenses in the league, but probably one that is well balanced. With plenty of options at the skill positions, a more experienced O-line and an easier schedule I think Ben will be a solid QB1 that can be drafted after the top 10-12 QBs.

3500 yards passing, 25 TD 10 INT, 100 yards rushing, 2 TD

This looks about right to me. I might even say 27 passing TD's.

[Maven]

Interesting takes in here... In particular that point about the running stats correlating with his pyds/att.

I see his ypds/att and completion jumping back up...which would mean the running game improves from those stats...which would make sense with a healthy mendenhall and focused parker in his contract year

I also agree he was overvalued last year and now undervalued this year.

My projection
450 pa att, 296 cmp, 3600 pyds, 25tds, 13ints, 33ru att, 108yds, 2 ru tds

This post has been edited by Maven: Sep 2 2009, 04:41 PM