Player Spotlight: Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons Options

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Tony Gonzalez Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

[Truman]

He's the Man.





Okay so here's what I really think.

- Mularkey has a history of ignoring TEs, but he has never had a pro-bowl caliber player like Gonzalez before.
- Pretty stable offseason for the Falcons offense, this was their one big splash, but the defense has undergone a lot of change - while this should mean shorter fields, I don't expect the team to be involved in many shootouts.
- A lot of competition for balls in this offense, and there may not be a lot of passes to go around - Mike Jenkins just re-signed an extension, Roddy White's people are working on the same and Harry Douglas will be looking to make a jump from a rookie year where he flashed playmaking ability but finished with only 23 catches. Gonzalez will not be targeted 150+ times as he was last year.
The Falcons will likely give Ryan more opportunities to exploit defenses early, but I still expect the offense to be run-heavy, particularly late in the game - we could see a Steelers like gameplan where they try to get up early and sit on leads.

- One area where Gonzalez will help the Falcons offense is in the redzone - it's an area where he has been elite his entire career and one which the Falcons will need to improve if they are to fulfill their offensive potential.

So a projection for this 33 year old TE?

82/880/8

[Dr. Octopus]

Obviously Gonzalez is one of the best of all time at his position and has been a perennial top 5 fantasy TE, but I think there is some risk heading into this season based on his advancing age and adjusting to a new team. Don't get me wrong he still has to be projected as a top 5 TE because he's simply more talented than most TEs in the league even at 33, but I do see some downside based on where he will be drafted and therefore would not be heartborken is I "missed out" on him come draft day.

A study of this board showed that only elite talents at the position have had fantasy starting caliber seasons past the age of 31 and obviously Gonzo is an elite talent, but sooner or later he will slow down. He goes to a good situation with a young talented QB and otherwise good supporting cast, but on the flipside he may not have to be the focal point of teh offense like he was last year in KC. Like I said you have to project him as a top 5 TE, but one should be aware that there is some risk he will underperform his draft position.

74 - 865 - 8

[travdogg]

He's still a top-5 Te, but I'd have liked him more if he'd stayed in KC. He won't get as many targets here, although the quality of the target should be better.

I'd guess: 75 catches, 890 yards and 6 TD's.

[barista]

I don't know. He's got a true WR with him that might cut into his Rec. but not his TDs. He's a great red zone safety for a young QB.
70/730/10

This post has been edited by barista: May 26 2009, 03:26 PM

[Lott's Fingertip]

Pros:

~ He's a stud.
~ He has had 900+ yards every year for 6 consecutive years.
~ He had 96-1058-10 on a bad team with utter mediocrity at QB.
~ He doesn't miss games... 2 missed in 12 years. Wow.

Cons:

~ He is switching teams for the first time in his pro career, so he may need to learn the system.
~ He is 33.
~ ATL did not use the TE much last year.

~~~~~

I see no reason not to expect another very productive season from Tony G. He is in a roughly similar situation this year to what he was in last year... one good WR and a good RB, except Matt Ryan is very likely a massive upgrade at QB.

Jenkins and Douglas are going to fight over the scraps of Gonzo and Roddy White; they are not in competition for targets. The RBs, especially Turner, are not very heavily involved in the passing game. I think the TE was not used last season because nobody was good enough to garner many targets.

I would expect Matt Ryan to be better in year two as well.

All this points to plenty of targets for Tony G.

Projections:

120 targets, 80 catches, 925 yards, 6 TDs

Good for top 3 TE again.

[Banger]

I'm not sure why but I don't have a real good feel for Gonzo this year. My opinion may change as I hear more from TC and see him in his new offense but I think he falters this year through no fault of his own. The offense wasn't a TE heavy offense at all and maybe that will change but KC was built around him. I still think he'll be productive but not the stud we've become accustomed to. I still think he'll be a very good NFL player and help the Falcons move the ball and make key catches but I don't think they'll rely on him to move the ball down the field like KC did.

65-750-7.5

[chris_dub]

~ ATL did not use the TE much last year.

Rolling with Justin Peelle & Marcus Pollard....did you really expect them to?



I see a slight drop off in Gonzo's numbers this year, with maybe the exception of TD's. A stud TE is always a nice safety blanket for a young QB, so I see Ryan dumping it off to him quite a bit...& hopefully he can rack up the YAC. Needless to say, it's going to be a very fun offense to watch this season.

[pizzatyme]

If Ryan didn't need a TE safety blanket last year why would he need one now? I see Gonzo having a top 10 year, but not top 5. I think he was brought in to help balance out the offense, especially in the Red Zone. I see him with:

110 targets
65 Recs.
660 Yds.
8 TDs.

[Michael Fox]

If Ryan didn't need a TE safety blanket last year why would he need one now? I see Gonzo having a top 10 year, but not top 5. I think he was brought in to help balance out the offense, especially in the Red Zone. I see him with:

110 targets
65 Recs.
660 Yds.
8 TDs.

Those numbers would have been top-5 last year.

[pizzatyme]

If Ryan didn't need a TE safety blanket last year why would he need one now? I see Gonzo having a top 10 year, but not top 5. I think he was brought in to help balance out the offense, especially in the Red Zone. I see him with:

110 targets
65 Recs.
660 Yds.
8 TDs.

Those numbers would have been top-5 last year.

Thanks. That's his upside IMO and that was last year.

This post has been edited by pizzatyme: May 27 2009, 10:16 PM

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I believe Ryan threw the ball 434 times last year, which is about 100 less than the '07 and '08 Chiefs, or about 25%.
It would be fairly comparable to the '06 Chiefs, however, when Gonzo logged 73/900/5.

That's not a projection, btw.

edit: Their #1 receiver in '06 was Kennison at 53/860/5

more edits: However, Larry Johnson sucked up 41/410/2

This post has been edited by Kool-Aid Larry: May 27 2009, 10:22 PM

[pizzatyme]

I believe Ryan threw the ball 434 times last year, which is about 100 less than the '07 and '08 Chiefs, or about 25%.
It would be fairly comparable to the '06 Chiefs, however, when Gonzo logged 73/900/5.

That's not a projection, btw.

edit: Their #1 receiver in '06 was Kennison at 53/860/5

more edits: However, Larry Johnson sucked up 41/410/2

Major difference between '06 Chefs and '09 Dirty Birds is Roddy White versus Eddie Kennison. Gonzo was THE #1 option on those Chiefs teams, not in the ATL IMO.

[Lott's Fingertip]

~ ATL did not use the TE much last year.

Rolling with Justin Peelle & Marcus Pollard....did you really expect them to?

Thus the follow-up in my comments:

I think the TE was not used last season because nobody was good enough to garner many targets.

[Kool-Aid Larry]

more.......

In '06 the Chiefs scored about half of their 35 TDs on the ground, running the ball 513x.
'08 Falcons scored 23 of their 39 on the ground, running the ball 560x.

[gianmarco]

I believe Ryan threw the ball 434 times last year, which is about 100 less than the '07 and '08 Chiefs, or about 25%.
It would be fairly comparable to the '06 Chiefs, however, when Gonzo logged 73/900/5.

That's not a projection, btw.

edit: Their #1 receiver in '06 was Kennison at 53/860/5

more edits: However, Larry Johnson sucked up 41/410/2

Major difference between '06 Chefs and '09 Dirty Birds is Roddy White versus Eddie Kennison. Gonzo was THE #1 option on those Chiefs teams, not in the ATL IMO.

Something to keep in mind about TE's and having a WR "taking away targets"

Witten had TO (140 targets)
Owen Daniels had AJ (170 targets)
Winslow had Braylon Edwards (153 targets in 2007 and 138 in 2008)
D. Clark had Reggie Wayne (131 targets)
Cooley had Santana Moss (138 targets)
Tony G had Bowe last year (157 targets)

Roddy White had 137 and 148 targets the last 2 years. There is nothing to suggest having a top WR to take away targets is a bad thing for a TE. In fact, I just listed 5 of the top 8 TEs for 2008. Only Shiancoe, Carlson, and Gates didn't have a WR with 130+ targets on their team. Other than Gates, those 2 are newcomers to the list. Witten, Daniels, Clark, Cooley, and Gonzo are not.

Oh, and if you want to say that Turner is going to take targets away as well, almost every one of those had a strong running game too. And all of these RB's caught the ball considerably more than Turner with the exception of J. Lewis:

Witten had Barber & co. (238 carries)
Owen Daniels had Slaton (268 carries)
Winslow had J. Lewis, esp. in 2007 (279 in 2008 and 298 in 2007)
Cooley had Portis (342 carries)
Tony G has had LJ/Priest in the past
Gates had LT (292 carries and 300+ years before)


So, I don't think the presence of Roddy or Turner is going to be a problem for Gonzo at all. In fact, it seems to be quite rare to NOT have either a top WR and/or a top RB present and still be an elite TE.

This post has been edited by gianmarco: May 28 2009, 12:14 AM

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Oh, and if you want to say that Turner is going to take targets away as well, almost every one of those had a strong running game too. And all of these RB's caught the ball considerably more than Turner with the exception of J. Lewis:

Witten had Barber & co. (238 carries)
Owen Daniels had Slaton (268 carries)
Winslow had J. Lewis, esp. in 2007 (279 in 2008 and 298 in 2007)
Cooley had Portis (342 carries)
Tony G has had LJ/Priest in the past
Gates had LT (292 carries and 300+ years before)


So, I don't think the presence of Roddy or Turner is going to be a problem for Gonzo at all. In fact, it seems to be quite rare to NOT have either a top WR and/or a top RB present and still be an elite TE.

It's just a question of degree.

If you note, I posted stats from the '06 Chiefs team that Gonzo shared with LJ, and I'd lean to that stat line as a more likely target than his last couple years, which are probably the years he gets drafted off of.
'06 - 103 targets for 73 catches, 900 yards, 5 TDs
'07 - 154 for 99 1172/5
'08 - 155 for 96 1058/10

KC threw the ball 450x in '06
563x in '07
541x in '08

That '08 Dallas team that Witten shared with Owens and Barber:
Pass Att - 547x
Barber carries - 238

Compare that to Atlanta's ~434(?) pass attempts in '08, and Turner's ~370(?) carries.

'08 Houston:
P Att - 555
Slaton - 268

You could, of course, make the case that the mere presence of Gonzo will pimp up their passing attack by another 100 throws, while stealing 100 carries and many TDs from Turner, but I'm a little skeptical on that.
I think it's more likely the KC offense ran through Gonzo as their only reliable weapon the last 2 years, and he's now probably the third option in Atl.
Not that he has to have some horrible year, but he'll probably be drafted very high off the last couple years, and I'd throw him in a bag with at least a half dozen other guys at his position.

[fightingillini]

Gonzalez has shown that he has some left in the tank. He comes to an nice situation, with a great RB and a very good WR in Roddy White. I expect his numbers to be a little down from his KC days, but he is still a top 3-4 TE.

68 rec, 825 yds, 6 TD

[Jason Wood]

I think the important thing to remember is that Atlanta only threw the ball 434 times last year (29th in the NFL). While you can argue they're not going to start throwing 600 times a season, I think we have to consider just what a promising rookie season Matt Ryan had and what that means for his workload in 2009 and beyond. I firmly believe the Falcons will comfortably throw 500+ times this year and be more balanced, and to that end there should be plenty of targets for Gonzo IMHO.

While he's a veteran, he's also a veteran coming off another elite season. There's no sign of Tony slowing yet, so I wouldn't arbitrarily use his age against him right now. Another point to think through, Gonzo has flourished in so many different situations. He's been great on good teams, bad teams, horrible teams. He's been great with a passing game (remember all those Trent Green 4,000 yard seasons?) and without legit quarterbacking. He's played in different offensive schemes, different playbooks, and different mixes in the huddle.

It's never a bad idea to discount a player when they are making a dramatic change, but I think anyone not looking at Gonzo as a Top 3-4 TE this year is overthinking things.

[gianmarco]

I think the important thing to remember is that Atlanta only threw the ball 434 times last year (29th in the NFL). While you can argue they're not going to start throwing 600 times a season, I think we have to consider just what a promising rookie season Matt Ryan had and what that means for his workload in 2009 and beyond. I firmly believe the Falcons will comfortably throw 500+ times this year and be more balanced, and to that end there should be plenty of targets for Gonzo IMHO.

While he's a veteran, he's also a veteran coming off another elite season. There's no sign of Tony slowing yet, so I wouldn't arbitrarily use his age against him right now. Another point to think through, Gonzo has flourished in so many different situations. He's been great on good teams, bad teams, horrible teams. He's been great with a passing game (remember all those Trent Green 4,000 yard seasons?) and without legit quarterbacking. He's played in different offensive schemes, different playbooks, and different mixes in the huddle.

It's never a bad idea to discount a player when they are making a dramatic change, but I think anyone not looking at Gonzo as a Top 3-4 TE this year is overthinking things.

[rzrback77]

Tony Gonzalez is a long time favorite of mine. He has athleticism, endurance, and he is a clutch football player. He has been rated as a top three fqantasy TE in FBG scoring for nine of the last ten years. In that ten year period, he has missed only two games. He quite frankly has been one of the most sure things at TE as there has been. He is the Peyton Manning of TEs.

All that said, for me there are some alarms going off for Gonzo in 09:

1) 1st time ever that he is in a new system
2) Atlanta is a much more solid team than the Chiefs have been recently
3) He turned 33 in February
4) Atlanta loves to run the ball - last year 434 passes and 491 rushes
5) TE targets last year 30 with WR targets 311
6) At a lower ADP for him in 08, he was a huge value pick
7) He will go higher in 09 than he did last year
8) There are a plethora of young talented TEs out there to pick from

I think that primarily based on the huge value he produced in 08 that he will be drafted higher than I will be willing to take him. I also think that he will disappoint in 09.

Tony Gonzalez 110 targets 70 catches 742 yards 10.6 ypc 5 TDs

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Somebody remember to bump this thread in December.

I think it mostly comes down to value with him, as he'll be taken very high in the tight end drafting, and even if he was to finish the year ranked 3-4 there won't be much separating him from guys who got picked much lower.

There were 8 other tight ends last year who had at least 5 TDs
4 others who had 100+ targets, with Gates at 92
6 others who put up 700+ yards
4 others who caught 70+ balls
and this is all before you get to some of the young guns, like Keller, Olsen, Scheffler, Carlson, etc, and outside a healthy Winslow or Shockey, if there are such things.
(ok, Carlson and Olsen DID both have 5 TDs.....)

He'd really need to beat those above targets fairly substantially to justify his draft position, and I don't think he'll do that. So, as I mentioned before, I think you can throw him in a bag with a half dozen other guys.

[CalBear]

Every year, people talk about how they'll pick up a late-round TE who'll put up numbers like Gonzo's, and so far, 90% of them have been wrong every year. The best you could have done in the late rounds in 2008 was Shiancoe, who scored 4 points per game less than Gonzo, and the other 10 or 12 late-round TEs didn't even come close to that. There have been occasional wins in the late rounds, but Gonzo's reliability as a top producer has been better than any other player at any other position in the past 10 years; only Peyton Manning comes close in terms of reliably putting up top performances. Gonzo has averaged 72 VBD points in the past 10 years; there's no one in the third round who comes anywhere close to that. He's coming off a 83 VBD point season, one of the best of his career. There's a lot to like.

The bad news is that he's going into a new situation, which increases his risk significantly. The talent is unquestioned; the question is how he will be used and what opportunities he'll have. The good news is that his offensive coordinator is Mike Mularkey, who played TE for the Vikings and Steelers and was TE coach or offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay (Jackie Harris 62/751/1), Pittsburgh (Mark Breuner 17/192/3), and Miami (Randy McMichael 62/640/3). None of Mularkey's TEs have been top-level producers, but then, none of his TEs have been top-level TEs. I think we can use Harris/McMichael's numbers as a baseline for Gonzo's coming into this situation, and he should be able to surpass them.

Because he needs to develop rapport and familiarity with a new team, I'm going to take his targets and receptions down. But he'll be playing in a much better offense, so I'm going to bump his yards per reception and TDs per reception. He's averaged 89/1043/11.7 ypr/6.7 TD in the past 3 years.

My projections: 70 receptions, 875 yards (12.5 ypr), 8 TD. Good for approximately TE#2.

(And best wishes for playoff success for my favorite Golden Bear ever.)

[Jon_Moore]

Tony Gonzo has finished no worse than TE3 for the last 3 years. It's been quite remarkable considering his situation at times. The Chiefs have finished 20th or worse in the passing game each of those 3 years. The last 2 years he's done it with inconsistency from both the quarterback and running back positions. Tyler Thigpen isn't god awful, but he's not really "good" either. Dwayne Bowe has been a nice solid reciever to keep the defenses from totally zeroing in on Gonzalez.

Fast forward a year to Atlanta. He's now got Matt Ryan at quarterback who showed great promise as a rookie. He's got one of the leading Rushers in the NFL to keep defenses from stacking the passing game. Roddy White is quite arguably better than Dwayne Bowe. The Falcons are going to score alot more points this year than the Chiefs did last year. Gonzalez will provide them with a much more consistent over the middle threat than they have had the last couple of seasons. He will face some competition for targets with White, but if the offense really clicks, it probably won't be an issue regardless.


90 Receptions
1089 Yards
9 Touchdowns

[Coach Pantusso]

Obviously, he should be the 2nd most targeted receiver on the team. Unlike in Kansas City, this team has balance and will not require Gonzo to carry them on his back. He will continue to draw coverage in the middle of the field opening things up for White in the passing game and keep the defense honest against the run. As Michael Turner is the primary option for the Falcons in the RZ, expect a decrease in TD numbers for Gonzalez this season. I see him getting 21% of 455 passes (catching 73% @ 10.5 per).

62-653-6*

* edit numbers from 73-766-6 (spreadsheet error)

This post has been edited by Coach Pantusso: Jul 26 2009, 01:40 PM

[The Jacket]

If Ryan didn't need a TE safety blanket last year why would he need one now? I see Gonzo having a top 10 year, but not top 5. I think he was brought in to help balance out the offense, especially in the Red Zone. I see him with:

110 targets
65 Recs.
660 Yds.
8 TDs.

One issue: Gonzalez is a lot more than a safety blanket. He can line up wide and routinely will embarrass a safety or LB 20 yards down the field. By far the lowest YPC he's had in the last DECADE was last year at 11.0, and that was because the QBs simply could not get the ball down the field. I fully expect his YPC to bounce back up to around his career average - 11.9. I think 70 receptions is fair, so I expect something in the region of 800-850 yards. Eight TDs is fair, but I expect that to be the lower end of his range. The guy is always open, and unlike most QBs Gonzo has had in his career Ryan will be able to find him. White is not a brilliant red-zone option and running the ball is always difficult in that area.

70 rec., 825 yards, 9 TD.

[David Yudkin]

I've always liked Gonzalez, but the team has already insinuated that he will be asked to block a lot more than he did in KC. Add in the fact that those KC teams threw the ball more than I think Atlanta will.

Looking back at the Chiefs teams, the one that I see as most similar would be the 2005 team. That squad had the 507 passing attempts. By comparison, last year's Falcons had 434 passing attempts.

In that season, the Chiefs had an ok WR1 option in Eddie Kennison (68-1102-5) which was still a peg or two worse than Roddy White last year (88-1382-7). The Chiefs had their own ball hog on the ground in Larry Johnson (336-1750-20), which was on par with Michael Turner (376-1699-17). In that season, Gonzalez posted 78-905-2 .

Heading into this year, White will get his, Turner will still run a ton, the Falcons will still be a run first team, and Gonzalez is getting old for top TE production. Only 3 tight end since 1960 that were 33 or older scored 100 fantasy points in a season (Wesley Walls 154, Shannon Sharpe 125, Jay Novacek 100). While I would not consider age as a primary factor, Gonzalez has so many receptions that you have to wonder how long he can keep it up. He's obviously done a lot that others haven't, so I wouldn't stay away from him because he's older.

Unlike other seasons, I don't see Tony G as a great value play. I see something like 65-750-6, which while still a solid season, is not what we are used to. Last year that would have ranked 5th. His ADP is currently TE3, so I don't see him as a great investment. He should still be solid, but I'm not sure he will be spectacular.

[Routilla]

Is anyone else bumping Gonzo up the TE rankings with all the WR issues in ATL?

[cstu]

Looks like Gonzo is still Gonzo.