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Player Spotlight: Ronnie Brown (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Ronnie Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Brown being fully healthy to begin this season will be a decent boost to his production. He is the primary weapon on offense for Miami and while he will share touches with Ricky Williams, I look for Ronnie's slice of the pie to grow slightly this year and for his production with those touches to improve (now that he has had adequate time to heal from his knee injury).

Carries: 240

Rush Yds: 1080

Rush TDs: 9

Recs: 35

Rec yds: 280

Rec TDs: 1

 
How much does Patrick Cobbs and Pat White figure in along with Ricky Williams. Even after Ronnie looked dominant early in season, Sparano wasnt giving him full time work weeks 7-16. It was puzzling yet it was according to the overall plan set forth by the staff. Seems the Fins dont want to feature any one player, be it at RB, WR, or TE.

mlball77 said:
Brown being fully healthy to begin this season will be a decent boost to his production. He is the primary weapon on offense for Miami and while he will share touches with Ricky Williams, I look for Ronnie's slice of the pie to grow slightly this year and for his production with those touches to improve (now that he has had adequate time to heal from his knee injury).Carries: 240Rush Yds: 1080Rush TDs: 9Recs: 35Rec yds: 280Rec TDs: 1
Click to expand...
 
RBrown should see career highs this year in rushing attemps, ypc, receptions (that is if he's an elite talent which he is IMO)

270 car, 1240 yds, 4.5 ypc, 9 TDs.

45 rec, 360 yds, 1 TD.

 
Good question, Greg... and a tough one at that. I feel they factor in, but won't cut anymore into Brown's touches than they did last year. I think if Brown proves he is healthy and shows even a touch more burst this preseason etc., it will be hard for MIA not to up his touches a small bit. But in my projection, I only gave him like 1.5 more touch per game, even though I think that could easily be 3. I think Ricky could lose a few touches this year if Cobbs and/or White are given more looks.

 
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Offensive Line: Since Bill Parcells arrived here in Miami there has been a major shift in focus as to what is really important and what wins championships.

The Dolphins have poured over $150 million into the O-Line. Jake Long signed for $57.5 million, they re-signed Vernon Carey this off season to just over $42 million.

Miami went out and signed Jake Grove from Oakland for a cool $30 million and then turned around and traded their previous starter at Center, Samson Satele to the Raiders.

Last year Miami signed LG, Justin Smiley for $25 million. Money does not necessarily equate to wins but Jake Long, the 1st pick in the 2008 draft ended up making the Pro Bowl so Parcells’ philosophy is certainly working.

I believe this is one of the stronger OL in the NFL that has been assembled. Miami is probably a little soft at the Guard position but the signing of Jake Grove is going to take a lot of pressure off those positions.

This adds up to very good things for Ronnie Brown. I also believe the murdrous Miami schedule means they will ahve to score a lot of points to win but Brown should be involved in those plays so i think he can make a run at career type numbers.

256-1100-10...40-320-2

About 300 touches 1,400 yds, and 12 TDs...that is top10 in non PPR leagues.

 
256-1100-10...40-320-2

I'd think that is the low end, with a higher of 325-350 touches even, 15+ TD's combined with 55-60 receptions - I think he might be THE most underrated guy this year in FF

 
Stealthycat said:
256-1100-10...40-320-2

I'd think that is the low end, with a higher of 325-350 touches even, 15+ TD's combined with 55-60 receptions - I think he might be THE most underrated guy this year in FF
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I am certainly not an expert, but I completely agree with this. Brown would be an early third round steal.
 
I'd just like to add that these projections make me upset that I have to move him b/c I can only keep MJD.

With that said, 268 - 1,354 - 9

 
Ah, the enigma that is ronnie brown...

He has a few things that work in his favor this year:

1) Improved O line, although one of the guard spots is still under construction

2) He is now 2 years removed from his surgery, and is showing a good burst

3) This is a contract year

A few things working against him:

1) Miami has 3 other runners on this team (Williams, Pat Cobb, and Pat white)

2) while he is a great receiver out of the backfield, he is not always the third down back (Cobb is)

3) Chad Pennington at QB means Safeties are close to the LOS.

To me his ceiling is about 265 carries and about 35 catches. He has a 4.4 ypc average for his career so 1166 on the ground and likely another 325 through the air. His TDs will be interesting, as Polite and others will vulture some short yardage from him. Lets call it 10 for safe measure.

 
Ronnie Brown owner.... been following him since his time at Auburn. I follow SEC/Gamecocks football. Have him in both leagues I am in (dynasty & keeper). See him as key to run for crown.

Talented, contract year, chip on shoulder to prove worth, wants the rock, going the extra mile in off-season workouts to get into best shape possible, worked on some "speed" technic with trainer in FL in Spring, only 27 yr old, only carried 782 times in career (still lots of tread on tires), Ricky is also in last yr of contract (?? maybe 2?), Cobb is a nice COP RB, OC will change things up to create space

My projection: Career highs for RB

288 carries

1365 yards

11 TD's

48 rec

420 yards

3 TD's

Top 5 Overall

He will threaten the 2000 total yard mark.

 
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Ricky Williams is still there so Ronnie Brown is only going to get so many touches. He's like ancient though so it's just a matter of the inevitable injury popping up that'll get Brown most of the carries and catches for Miami.

 
The Man with the Plan said:
Ricky Williams is still there so Ronnie Brown is only going to get so many touches. He's like ancient though so it's just a matter of the inevitable injury popping up that'll get Brown most of the carries and catches for Miami.
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I think Ricky is the least of the problem with evaluating Ronnie... Cobbs is my biggest question. If he plays 3rd downs and plays the role of the "receiving" back I see Brown's catches drop which is the key to his value. I think combined yardage is the ceiling more so than rushing. If he's being used he'll get both and if not he might not be top 10. Granted I think that he'll be the focus and that these other backs are there if he runs into injury. It makes the most sense to keep on using him until as Bill Withers said he's used up. Parcells seems to have the option to do just that with the strong backfield assemblage. I doubt he'd be rotating RBs beyond spelling the starter.12-1400+rush 10TDs – 40/500rec 3TDs
 
Before I go into projections, is there any way to tell how many of his yards/TDs were in the Wildcat formation? Because if Pat White takes over that role (which it would be silly if he did not), I would like to see what he did outside of that formation (a general baseline) before I make any projections. For example, we all know he had that huge game in the Wildcat formation against the Pats...I am not a big fan of the "take that 70 yarder away from player X" mentality, but if you take a guy out of an entire formation that was his bread and butter, you have to make adjustments.

 
Ronnie Brown will end being a RB1 but will be able to be drafted as a RB2 in many leagues. His ability to carry a full work load through out the year is the only concern (big concern). I dont see Ricky Williams or any other backs cutting into the work load unless there is an injury. O-Line has been repaired and ready to make holes for the RB to rack up some yardage. Coaching staff is not going to away from pounding the ball image any time soon.

300 carries

1350 yards

12 TD

30 Receptions

200 yards

2 TDs

 
I guess you can count me as one of the VERY few that do not believe in Ronnie Brown in 2009. I just have not see enough of him to say that he is a RB1 or RB 2 for that matter. Let's closely look at last year's stats and see how Brown really did in 2008.

- Brown had 10 GAMES... 10 GAMES last year with UNDER 13 carries for the game. Take a look at a couple of his games last year and you can clearly see he IS NOT RB1 or even RB2 material.

Good games:

Week 3 vs. NE - 17 carries, 113 yards, 4 TDs

Week 5 vs. SD - 24 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

Week 11 vs. OAK - 16 carries, 101 yards, 1 TD



Bad Games:

Week 1 vs. NYJ - 6 carries, 23 yards

Week 2 vs. ZONA - 11 carries for 25 yards

Week 3 vs. Ravens - 13 carries, 27 yards

Week 8 vs. Buff. - 20 carries for 59 yards

Week 10 vs. SEA - 10 carries for 39 yards

- Brown had 40% of his TDs in 2008 in one game. Don't be fooled by the 10 TDs that you see.

- Brown has NEVER seen more than 241 rushes in one year. That's including when he was in college at Auburn.

- The Dolphins also have a first place type of schedule which could wear down the Fins.

- The Dolphins now also have a plethora of runners on the team in 2009. The Dolphins will feature RB's Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs along with QB/RB Pat White in the mix. It's clear to me after looking at last year's stats and the players on this roster for 2009, that Ronnie will again fall under 240 carries.

- And last but not least, Brown has a history of the injury bug. You can't ignore that fact that the Dolphins want to limit Brown's carries to keep him healthy. Just look at his carries last year if you need proof.

All of this adds up to me passing on Ronnie Brown this year. I see him as a borderline RB2, but performing as a RB3 with their tough schedule and other players around him.

200 carries, 800 yards rushing, 37 catches for 250 yards, 6 total TDs.

Does this look like RB1 or RB2 material to you?

 
laughinboy_2000 said:
I guess you can count me as one of the VERY few that do not believe in Ronnie Brown in 2009. I just have not see enough of him to say that he is a RB1 or RB 2 for that matter. Let's closely look at last year's stats and see how Brown really did in 2008.

- Brown had 10 GAMES... 10 GAMES last year with UNDER 13 carries for the game. Take a look at a couple of his games last year and you can clearly see he IS NOT RB1 or even RB2 material.

Good games:

Week 3 vs. NE - 17 carries, 113 yards, 4 TDs

Week 5 vs. SD - 24 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

Week 11 vs. OAK - 16 carries, 101 yards, 1 TD



Bad Games:

Week 1 vs. NYJ - 6 carries, 23 yards

Week 2 vs. ZONA - 11 carries for 25 yards

Week 3 vs. Ravens - 13 carries, 27 yards

Week 8 vs. Buff. - 20 carries for 59 yards

Week 10 vs. SEA - 10 carries for 39 yards

- Brown had 40% of his TDs in 2008 in one game. Don't be fooled by the 10 TDs that you see.

- Brown has NEVER seen more than 241 rushes in one year. That's including when he was in college at Auburn.

- The Dolphins also have a first place type of schedule which could wear down the Fins.

- The Dolphins now also have a plethora of runners on the team in 2009. The Dolphins will feature RB's Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs along with QB/RB Pat White in the mix. It's clear to me after looking at last year's stats and the players on this roster for 2009, that Ronnie will again fall under 240 carries.

- And last but not least, Brown has a history of the injury bug. You can't ignore that fact that the Dolphins want to limit Brown's carries to keep him healthy. Just look at his carries last year if you need proof.

All of this adds up to me passing on Ronnie Brown this year. I see him as a borderline RB2, but performing as a RB3 with their tough schedule and other players around him.

200 carries, 800 yards rushing, 37 catches for 250 yards, 6 total TDs.

Does this look like RB1 or RB2 material to you?
Click to expand...
Nice breakdown. The 4TD game where they took NE by surprise with the Wild Cat is really misleading when you look at his season stats as a whole. Very inconsistent production.
 
greggorymac said:
laughinboy_2000 said:
I guess you can count me as one of the VERY few that do not believe in Ronnie Brown in 2009. I just have not see enough of him to say that he is a RB1 or RB 2 for that matter. Let's closely look at last year's stats and see how Brown really did in 2008.

- Brown had 10 GAMES... 10 GAMES last year with UNDER 13 carries for the game. Take a look at a couple of his games last year and you can clearly see he IS NOT RB1 or even RB2 material.

Good games:

Week 3 vs. NE - 17 carries, 113 yards, 4 TDs

Week 5 vs. SD - 24 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

Week 11 vs. OAK - 16 carries, 101 yards, 1 TD



Bad Games:

Week 1 vs. NYJ - 6 carries, 23 yards

Week 2 vs. ZONA - 11 carries for 25 yards

Week 3 vs. Ravens - 13 carries, 27 yards

Week 8 vs. Buff. - 20 carries for 59 yards

Week 10 vs. SEA - 10 carries for 39 yards

- Brown had 40% of his TDs in 2008 in one game. Don't be fooled by the 10 TDs that you see.

- Brown has NEVER seen more than 241 rushes in one year. That's including when he was in college at Auburn.

- The Dolphins also have a first place type of schedule which could wear down the Fins.

- The Dolphins now also have a plethora of runners on the team in 2009. The Dolphins will feature RB's Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs along with QB/RB Pat White in the mix. It's clear to me after looking at last year's stats and the players on this roster for 2009, that Ronnie will again fall under 240 carries.

- And last but not least, Brown has a history of the injury bug. You can't ignore that fact that the Dolphins want to limit Brown's carries to keep him healthy. Just look at his carries last year if you need proof.

All of this adds up to me passing on Ronnie Brown this year. I see him as a borderline RB2, but performing as a RB3 with their tough schedule and other players around him.

200 carries, 800 yards rushing, 37 catches for 250 yards, 6 total TDs.

Does this look like RB1 or RB2 material to you?
Click to expand...
Nice breakdown. The 4TD game where they took NE by surprise with the Wild Cat is really misleading when you look at his season stats as a whole. Very inconsistent production.
Click to expand...
It has been beaten to death on here, but is seemingly being ignored in a few of these posts...Last year was year one after ACL surgery. Ronnie had a nice year when you consider that, and the fact that the OL was average. This is year 2 after the surgery, the OL has been improved, and the Pro Bowl rookie LT is not not a rookie anymore. Showing me weeks 1,2, and 3 as evidence that he is not RB2 material is a bit silly if you are not taking into account how fresh he was off surgery at that point, and the improvements up front.

 
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ChuckLiddell said:
greggorymac said:
laughinboy_2000 said:
I guess you can count me as one of the VERY few that do not believe in Ronnie Brown in 2009. I just have not see enough of him to say that he is a RB1 or RB 2 for that matter. Let's closely look at last year's stats and see how Brown really did in 2008.

- Brown had 10 GAMES... 10 GAMES last year with UNDER 13 carries for the game. Take a look at a couple of his games last year and you can clearly see he IS NOT RB1 or even RB2 material.

Good games:

Week 3 vs. NE - 17 carries, 113 yards, 4 TDs

Week 5 vs. SD - 24 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

Week 11 vs. OAK - 16 carries, 101 yards, 1 TD



Bad Games:

Week 1 vs. NYJ - 6 carries, 23 yards

Week 2 vs. ZONA - 11 carries for 25 yards

Week 3 vs. Ravens - 13 carries, 27 yards

Week 8 vs. Buff. - 20 carries for 59 yards

Week 10 vs. SEA - 10 carries for 39 yards

- Brown had 40% of his TDs in 2008 in one game. Don't be fooled by the 10 TDs that you see.

- Brown has NEVER seen more than 241 rushes in one year. That's including when he was in college at Auburn.

- The Dolphins also have a first place type of schedule which could wear down the Fins.

- The Dolphins now also have a plethora of runners on the team in 2009. The Dolphins will feature RB's Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs along with QB/RB Pat White in the mix. It's clear to me after looking at last year's stats and the players on this roster for 2009, that Ronnie will again fall under 240 carries.

- And last but not least, Brown has a history of the injury bug. You can't ignore that fact that the Dolphins want to limit Brown's carries to keep him healthy. Just look at his carries last year if you need proof.

All of this adds up to me passing on Ronnie Brown this year. I see him as a borderline RB2, but performing as a RB3 with their tough schedule and other players around him.

200 carries, 800 yards rushing, 37 catches for 250 yards, 6 total TDs.

Does this look like RB1 or RB2 material to you?
Click to expand...
Nice breakdown. The 4TD game where they took NE by surprise with the Wild Cat is really misleading when you look at his season stats as a whole. Very inconsistent production.
Click to expand...
It has been beaten to death on here, but is seemingly being ignored in a few of these posts...Last year was year one after ACL surgery. Ronnie had a nice year when you consider that, and the fact that the OL was average. This is year 2 after the surgery, the OL has been improved, and the Pro Bowl rookie LT is not not a rookie anymore. Showing me weeks 1,2, and 3 as evidence that he is not RB2 material is a bit silly if you are not taking into account how fresh he was off surgery at that point, and the improvements up front.
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Brown is a great Running back, he just always has factors wroking against him (injuries, ricky williams) and now the coaching staff. If they turn him loose, he is top 8 in fantasy. IF they continue to shuttle players like Cobbs/Williams/White, he is between #24-#28.

 
Sweet Love said:
Before I go into projections, is there any way to tell how many of his yards/TDs were in the Wildcat formation? Because if Pat White takes over that role (which it would be silly if he did not), I would like to see what he did outside of that formation (a general baseline) before I make any projections. For example, we all know he had that huge game in the Wildcat formation against the Pats...I am not a big fan of the "take that 70 yarder away from player X" mentality, but if you take a guy out of an entire formation that was his bread and butter, you have to make adjustments.
Click to expand...
About White, I see White and Brown in the backfield on the Wildcat--I think Ricky W. is the loser here. Ronnie may lose some touches to White because White should be more effective than Ricky was, but he will still get a good share out of this formation.
 
az_prof said:
Sweet Love said:
Before I go into projections, is there any way to tell how many of his yards/TDs were in the Wildcat formation? Because if Pat White takes over that role (which it would be silly if he did not), I would like to see what he did outside of that formation (a general baseline) before I make any projections. For example, we all know he had that huge game in the Wildcat formation against the Pats...I am not a big fan of the "take that 70 yarder away from player X" mentality, but if you take a guy out of an entire formation that was his bread and butter, you have to make adjustments.
Click to expand...
About White, I see White and Brown in the backfield on the Wildcat--I think Ricky W. is the loser here. Ronnie may lose some touches to White because White should be more effective than Ricky was, but he will still get a good share out of this formation.
Click to expand...
Agreed. White would take the direct snap role (previously held by Brown in the Wild Cat formation) and Brown would take on the RB/option role (previously held by Ricky Williams last season).
 
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Huge Ronnie Brown fan as he came out of Auburn and the SEC, but have been disappointed thus far. He only has one year where he played all 16 games and that was 08a nd he still only had 214 carries.

I agree that he has a strong O-Line, but he just doesn't get the opportunities. A quick review of game by game rushes in 08:

week 1 - 6 for 23 yds 3 catches 28 yds 0 TD

week 2 - 11 for 25 yds 2 catches 19 yds 0 TD

week 3 - 17 for 113 yds 1 catches 9 yds 4 TD - wildcat breakout

week 5 - 24 for 125 yds 1 catches 8 yds 1 TD

week 6 - 13 for 50 yds 3 catches 43 yds 1 TD

week 7 - 13 for 27 yds 1 catches 1 yds 0 TD

week 8 - 14 for 43 yds 1 catches 5 yds 0 TD

week 9 - 20 for 59 yds 3 catches 30 yds 1 TD

week 10 - 10 for 39 yds 4 catches 27 yds 1 TD

week 11 - 16 for 101 yds 1 catches 11 yds 0 TD

week 12 - 10 for 37 yds 1 catches 10 yds 0 TD

week 13 - 15 for 48 yds 0 catches 0 yds 1 TD

week 14 - 16 for 70 yds 2 catches 18 yds 0 TD

week 15 - 10 for 67 yds 1 catches 9 yds 0 TD

week 16 - 8 for 32 yds 5 catches 21 yds 0 TD

week 17 - 11 for 57 yds 4 catches 15 yds 0 TD

Eight games where he scored less than 10 fantasy points, including five of the last six in the regular season. He had 20 carries once and over 20 carries once.

I think that his lack of opportunities as well as the crowded line of scrimmage due to their rather weak armed QB are the primary factors. My projections are for career numbers of carries and receptions, but still not top twelve fantasy finish.

Ronnie Brown 240 carries 1056 yds 4.4 ypc 40 receptions 300 yds 8 TDs

edior for mispelling

 
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Sea Bass said:
Stealthycat said:
256-1100-10...40-320-2

I'd think that is the low end, with a higher of 325-350 touches even, 15+ TD's combined with 55-60 receptions - I think he might be THE most underrated guy this year in FF
Click to expand...
I am certainly not an expert, but I completely agree with this. Brown would be an early third round steal.
Click to expand...
i just got him and larry johnson at the 4/5 turn in a sportsline mock.
 
laughinboy_2000 said:
All of this adds up to me passing on Ronnie Brown this year. I see him as a borderline RB2, but performing as a RB3 with their tough schedule and other players around him.

200 carries, 800 yards rushing, 37 catches for 250 yards, 6 total TDs.

Does this look like RB1 or RB2 material to you?
Click to expand...
Are you projecting him to play less than 16 games? If you aren't, you are projecting career lows (per game).
 
Brown is definitely one of the more polarizing backs in the game, especially this year. You either love him and his talent or want no part of him. I guess I'd fall into the later half...is he talented? Yeah but I don't think he's as talented as a lot of people think he is. Is he durable? Not at all. Is he the workhorse? Doubtful. Is he on a good offense? No. Is the wildcat going to catch people by surprise? No.

Brown in 4 years has run for 1000+ yards once...ONCE with a whopping 1008 yards. It's always something with him and while I argued against him big time a couple years ago when he was ranked 5th, now being ranked around 15th (higher than he's ever finished) is closer to where he should be.

If everything breaks right...i.e. he doesn't get hurt (which he's never proven), he doesn't share significant time with Williams (if it ain't broke, don't fix it), the line improves, the wildcat is still effective, etc. he's got some upside but chances are something won't fall into place....

245-1041-7 33-250-1

 
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Banger said:
Brown is definitely one of the more polarizing backs in the game, especially this year. You either love him and his talent or want no part of him. I guess I'd fall into the later half...is he talented? Yeah but I don't think he's as talented as a lot of people think he is. Is he durable? Not at all. Is he the workhorse? Doubtful. Is he on a good offense? No. Is the wildcat going to catch people by surprise? No.Brown in 4 years has run for 1000+ yards once...ONCE with a whopping 1008 yards. It's always something with him and while I argued against him big time a couple years ago when he was ranked 5th, now being ranked around 15th (higher than he's ever finished) is closer to where he should be. If everything breaks right...i.e. he doesn't get hurt (which he's never proven), he doesn't share significant time with Williams (if it ain't broke, don't fix it), the line improves, the wildcat is still effective, etc. he's got some upside but chances are something won't fall into place.... 245-1041-7 33-250-1
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You just gave him 1300 yards and 8 TDs and said that you fall into the "want no part of him" category. High standards?
 
ChuckLiddell said:
Banger said:
Brown is definitely one of the more polarizing backs in the game, especially this year. You either love him and his talent or want no part of him. I guess I'd fall into the later half...is he talented? Yeah but I don't think he's as talented as a lot of people think he is. Is he durable? Not at all. Is he the workhorse? Doubtful. Is he on a good offense? No. Is the wildcat going to catch people by surprise? No.Brown in 4 years has run for 1000+ yards once...ONCE with a whopping 1008 yards. It's always something with him and while I argued against him big time a couple years ago when he was ranked 5th, now being ranked around 15th (higher than he's ever finished) is closer to where he should be. If everything breaks right...i.e. he doesn't get hurt (which he's never proven), he doesn't share significant time with Williams (if it ain't broke, don't fix it), the line improves, the wildcat is still effective, etc. he's got some upside but chances are something won't fall into place.... 245-1041-7 33-250-1
Click to expand...
You just gave him 1300 yards and 8 TDs and said that you fall into the "want no part of him" category. High standards?
Click to expand...
that puts him around the #18 RB... I never say never on any player because at some point they are attractive but I just feel that someone would definitely like him more than I do. I was more vehemently against him years ago when he was ranked top 5 because I felt he did nothing to warrant that, now that his price is rounds cheaper he's not the risk he once was. I guess I should change the "want no part of him" to "I'm not a Brown believer" like so many seem to be. He's the RB version of Roy Williams.
 
Re: the '08 workload question...I spent some time in Miami early last November. There was a lot of talk from the locals (Lebetard, etc) that Brown looked like he was still favoring his knee...and that Sporano was feeding him less due to this, even though he still played.

I didn't see many games, so this insight was noteworthy to me.

 
I wanted no part of him last season.

Different story this year.

290 carries 1270 yards 10 TD's

47 receptions 325 Yards 2 TD's

Value based on ADP and a legit RB1 this season in PPR.

He is in the best shape of his career and Sparano is going to feed him the rock early and often with sprinkles of Ricky Williams (7-10 touches a game). Cobbs will be a special teams guy with maybe some mop up duty if we have a blow out or 2 this season.

Ronnie is going to be given every opportunity to be the bell cow this year. This is it for him otherwise he will be finding a new team next year.

 
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I don't know, I see him as a solid RB2 who will win you games some weeks, and completely diappear in others. That schedule looks really brutal. I am a HUGE Ronnie fan, but I'm not sure ANY RB is going to put up "lock-it-in" RB1 numbers running against his schedule.

 
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two_dollars said:
I don't know, I see him as a solid RB2 who will win you games some weeks, and completely diappear in others. That schedule looks really brutal. I am a HUGE Ronnie fan, but I'm not sure ANY RB is going to put up "lock-it-in" RB1 numbers running against his schedule.
Click to expand...
Here in lies another myth of FF. I repect those that look at strength of schedule and all that. But I have been playing this silly game for 20 plus years and one thing is certain.....every year the balance of power changes. What may look like a brutal schedule now may end up being an average schedule or in some cases soft schedule at years end.Games are played on the field....not on paper. Injuires, scheme changes, players underperforming...all kinds of things can change a couple of teams fortunes on that brutal schedule. Too many times in the past playing the right matchup ended up being the wrong move. I have seen it so many times that a supposed run stuffing team stinks up the joint. Very few teams carry the same dominance year in year out.So I am not looking at schedules....I rather look at opporunity, OL play and schemes. The Dolphins will be running Ronnie a ton this year. That = big opportunity for a career year for a 100% healthy and contract year Ronnie Brown.
 
Todem said:
two_dollars said:
I don't know, I see him as a solid RB2 who will win you games some weeks, and completely diappear in others. That schedule looks really brutal. I am a HUGE Ronnie fan, but I'm not sure ANY RB is going to put up "lock-it-in" RB1 numbers running against his schedule.
Click to expand...
Here in lies another myth of FF. I repect those that look at strength of schedule and all that. But I have been playing this silly game for 20 plus years and one thing is certain.....every year the balance of power changes. What may look like a brutal schedule now may end up being an average schedule or in some cases soft schedule at years end.Games are played on the field....not on paper. Injuires, scheme changes, players underperforming...all kinds of things can change a couple of teams fortunes on that brutal schedule. Too many times in the past playing the right matchup ended up being the wrong move. I have seen it so many times that a supposed run stuffing team stinks up the joint. Very few teams carry the same dominance year in year out.So I am not looking at schedules....I rather look at opporunity, OL play and schemes. The Dolphins will be running Ronnie a ton this year. That = big opportunity for a career year for a 100% healthy and contract year Ronnie Brown.
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True, 2008 is SO last year..The more I am looking at it, the more I see him getting near 300 touches.. at least 18 a game.. Parcells has really invested a ton into his OL, and all the word out of camp is good for Ronnie.
 
traded for him after a few weeks in which Ricky Williams was a non factor.....after I got him on my roster, Ricky pretty much split 50/50 with Ronnie. I stopped starting Ronnie all together.

Stay away from this mess. Don't get caught up in name recognition or the couple games that totally inflated his stat line.

And like others said, Pat White will be the wildcat, and Cobbs could be 3rd down. Throw in Ricky every couple series.....I would much rather pass on him.

 
So basically you can't stand what he did in a year when he was not supposed to do much. Before he got hurt he was by far the #1 rb in fantasy football on a team that finished 1-15. And is it not RB glory years 27-30, with the fall off happening just after 30? He has shown what he can do without a great line, now he is supposed to do less with a very formidable one. Pat White may just be the QB of the wild cat, Brown will be the main back. Why can't people understand they took it easy on the guy coming back from a injury. Contract year, featured runner, capable reciever. 275-1180-9/40-300-3. And that is with the phins finishing under 500.

 
For me, it really comes down to RB or PT. At this point, I would probably opt for PT, but Ronnie is not far behind. Excellent choice in the third round.

 
flintpanthers said:
So basically you can't stand what he did in a year when he was not supposed to do much. Before he got hurt he was by far the #1 rb in fantasy football on a team that finished 1-15. And is it not RB glory years 27-30, with the fall off happening just after 30? He has shown what he can do without a great line, now he is supposed to do less with a very formidable one. Pat White may just be the QB of the wild cat, Brown will be the main back. Why can't people understand they took it easy on the guy coming back from a injury. Contract year, featured runner, capable reciever. 275-1180-9/40-300-3. And that is with the phins finishing under 500.
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Give it a rest.....in that 7 game span.....he had four 100 yard games vs the Jets, Raiders, Houston, and Browns.....hardly even average defenses at the time. In the other 3 contests he ran for 142 yards with no TD's vs Wash, Dal, and NE.

 
tdmills said:
flintpanthers said:
So basically you can't stand what he did in a year when he was not supposed to do much. Before he got hurt he was by far the #1 rb in fantasy football on a team that finished 1-15. And is it not RB glory years 27-30, with the fall off happening just after 30? He has shown what he can do without a great line, now he is supposed to do less with a very formidable one. Pat White may just be the QB of the wild cat, Brown will be the main back. Why can't people understand they took it easy on the guy coming back from a injury. Contract year, featured runner, capable reciever. 275-1180-9/40-300-3. And that is with the phins finishing under 500.
Click to expand...
Give it a rest.....in that 7 game span.....he had four 100 yard games vs the Jets, Raiders, Houston, and Browns.....hardly even average defenses at the time. In the other 3 contests he ran for 142 yards with no TD's vs Wash, Dal, and NE.
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Stats aside, Ronnie LOOKED very good in 2007. He was running with great power and speed.Tearing up a bad defense is not a negative.

 
I do not care how he gets his points. He gets them. 4out of 7 games 100 yrds. So that translates to 9 in 16. Hmm I wouls take that. he had 172pts after that 7 games. His lowest point total was 8. He had 14 points against the said Patriots, but no 100 yds. That projects to just under 30 pts a game(28). So he can basically win me 8 games a year and not kill me in the weeks he don't break 100 yds. Turner last year only had 8 100yd plus games, and that means 8 games under, and 7 games without a TD. Against the Saints twice he failed. But I would take his numbers easily. And that 172 would have been #! after 7 weeks last year as well. Not saying he will repeat that but he will jump clearly ahead of what he did last year.

 
flintpanthers said:
I do not care how he gets his points. He gets them. 4out of 7 games 100 yrds. So that translates to 9 in 16. Hmm I wouls take that. he had 172pts after that 7 games. His lowest point total was 8. He had 14 points against the said Patriots, but no 100 yds. That projects to just under 30 pts a game(28). So he can basically win me 8 games a year and not kill me in the weeks he don't break 100 yds. Turner last year only had 8 100yd plus games, and that means 8 games under, and 7 games without a TD. Against the Saints twice he failed. But I would take his numbers easily. And that 172 would have been #! after 7 weeks last year as well. Not saying he will repeat that but he will jump clearly ahead of what he did last year.
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lol.... so he would've played the raiders, houston, and the browns twice the rest of the season? You can't calculate numbers like that.....if you did Ryan Grant would've been the #1 pick in last years draft b/c of his "great 2nd half"....and we all saw what happened last year.He has had 1,000 yards in a season once in his 4 year career...and that was 1008. Name a starting RB that broke out in his 5th season....maybe Thomas Jones(but he didn't start this many games in his career....as Ronnie has).Things working against Ronnie:He has NEVER consistantly put up great numbers.He splits his numbers with Ricky Williams and Cobbs.Wildcat will go to Pat White this year(sorry no blow up 4 TD game this year)Weak armed Pennington won't keep safteys deep.
 
tdmills said:
Name a starting RB that broke out in his 5th season....maybe Thomas Jones(but he didn't start this many games in his career....as Ronnie has).
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Ummm, maybe you missed it but Brown already broke out. He simply got hurt halfway through that season.
 
jurb26 said:
tdmills said:
Name a starting RB that broke out in his 5th season....maybe Thomas Jones(but he didn't start this many games in his career....as Ronnie has).
Click to expand...
Ummm, maybe you missed it but Brown already broke out. He simply got hurt halfway through that season.
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Its all relative to your definition of breakout. But if you love 7 game seasons or 900 yards rushing you got your guy.
 
RoyDubb said:
RBrown should see career highs this year in rushing attemps, ypc, receptions (that is if he's an elite talent which he is IMO)270 car, 1240 yds, 4.5 ypc, 9 TDs.45 rec, 360 yds, 1 TD.
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I agree with this forecast. I think he is going to have a great year.
 
So tdmills you are not a Brown believer. Great I say. Hope there are many more like you. That just means I can get the guy in the third and fourth rounds.

 
tdmills said:
Name a starting RB that broke out in his 5th season....maybe Thomas Jones(but he didn't start this many games in his career....as Ronnie has).
Click to expand...
Westbrook-year 5 RB6, highest finish before was RB18Tiki Barber-year 6 RB7, finished as RB13 in year 4Stephen Davis-year 4 RB4Priest Holmes-year 5 RB2Lamont Jordan-year 5 RB8Charlie Garner-year 6 (1750 yards, 6 TDs)Chester Taylor-year 5 RB12Michael Turner-year 5 RB2I'm sure there are more, but I got tired of looking.
 
tdmills said:
jurb26 said:
tdmills said:
Name a starting RB that broke out in his 5th season....maybe Thomas Jones(but he didn't start this many games in his career....as Ronnie has).
Click to expand...
Ummm, maybe you missed it but Brown already broke out. He simply got hurt halfway through that season.
Click to expand...
Its all relative to your definition of breakout. But if you love 7 game seasons or 900 yards rushing you got your guy.
Click to expand...
:shrug: unbelievable
 
Bayhawks said:
tdmills said:
Name a starting RB that broke out in his 5th season....maybe Thomas Jones(but he didn't start this many games in his career....as Ronnie has).
Click to expand...
Westbrook-year 5 RB6, highest finish before was RB18Tiki Barber-year 6 RB7, finished as RB13 in year 4Stephen Davis-year 4 RB4Priest Holmes-year 5 RB2Lamont Jordan-year 5 RB8Charlie Garner-year 6 (1750 yards, 6 TDs)Chester Taylor-year 5 RB12Michael Turner-year 5 RB2I'm sure there are more, but I got tired of looking.
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How many games did they START(I guess I should've stated that better)? Granted people break out due to opportunity later in their careers....but Brown has seen opportunities and hasn't. All of those players didn't get the opportunity that Brown has had thus far in his career.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
RoyDubb said:
flintpanthers said:
So tdmills you are not a Brown believer. Great I say. Hope there are many more like you. That just means I can get the guy in the third and fourth rounds.
Click to expand...
:mellow: he must have traded him in a few leagues.... :lmao:
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Lol, yes.....I trade him away and than refute points with stats and facts....but i'm probably bitter I don't have a 28 years old with a career high of 1008 in a season. But he must break out this season.....despite sharing the football....having a weak armed QB....and weak WR core.
 
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