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Player Spotlight: Knowshon Moreno (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Knowshon Moreno Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
This is the situation you're dealing with if you draft Moreno. The Broncos are still going to have one of the worst defenses in football. Their front seven is probably THE WORST in the league and very little was done this offseason to improve it. They won't be able to pressure the QB nor stop the run. So, what does this have to do with Moreno? Lots.

The Broncos offense is going to be sitting on the sidelines for long stretches of time during this upcoming season. The defense will regularly give up 5-10+ minute drives that results in giving up points. This will make it very difficult for the offense to get into any sort of rhythm. Also, the Broncos will be playing from behind most of the time in the second half. Hence, Moreno's real value is going to come from PPR as he takes dump-offs out of the backfield. Don't expect 1400 yds rushing out of Moreno this season, it just isn't going to happen.

700 yds rushing 5 TDs, 50 receptions 400 yds 3 TDs

 
Moreno will not be pushed for touches much, and even if they lose a lot of games I really can't imagine him getting less than 240 carries.

240-960-6...32-280-1

Somewhere in the 275 touch range if not higher, 1200-1400 yds and perhaps 6-8 TD...wouldn't be off the ranch to see these type of numbers IMO.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Moreno will not be pushed for touches much, and even if they lose a lot of games I really can't imagine him getting less than 240 carries.240-960-6...32-280-1Somewhere in the 275 touch range if not higher, 1200-1400 yds and perhaps 6-8 TD...wouldn't be off the ranch to see these type of numbers IMO.
Click to expand...
I think you'd get a little bit more than that but not enough to make a major case about.Denver's OL is still pretty good and Simms (or Orton) will do enough to keep the defenses honest. I'd second the above and call it floor with the corresponding ceiling 200 yrds and three to four TDs on the ground higher
 
I'm very high on Moreno's prospects for this season. I simply don't think that the Broncos would've invested such a high pick on him -- especially with glaring needs in other areas -- if they weren't planning to use him early and often. The Broncos know how to run the ball -- despite the fact that they went through running backs last season like they were going out of style, we still saw a guy like Peyton Hillis (a 7th round pick) average 5 yards a carry. They even made Tatum Bell look good in that last game. I truly believe that Moreno's an exceptional talent and the prospect of him moving into this offense as a featured back should have fantasy owners salivating. On the down side, you have the fact that Jordan could vulture some goal-line TD's, and the fact that the Broncos could play from behind a great deal. The latter doesn't concern me as much, as Moreno's a skilled receiver and should be in the game in most situations. The QB situation is a big downgrade from last year, but I think Orton or Simms will be at least serviceable, and the Broncos certainly have the WR talent to keep defenses honest. Others have mentioned that McDaniels was a fan of the RBBC in New England, but that may have been more out of necessity, given the players he was working with, and, again, I just don't think he selected Moreno 12th if he didn't plan to use him. A lot.

My prediction:

265 carries, 1,219 yards, 4.6 YPC, 8 td's, 38 receptions, 258 yards, 6.8 YPC, 1 td

 
TS Garp said:
The Broncos know how to run the ball -- despite the fact that they went through running backs last season like they were going out of style, we still saw a guy like Peyton Hillis (a 7th round pick) average 5 yards a carry. They even made Tatum Bell look good in that last game.
Click to expand...
:lmao: The Broncos seem to have fallen off a bit from where they were five years ago re: the groundgame, but they were still pretty darn effective 387 -- 1862 -- 15. The team's 4.8 YPC was 3rd in the NFL also. Losing Cutler may make someof those running lanes smaller as more defenders move up into the box, but Moreno is also a far better runner than what they trotted out last year to carry the ball.I also don't see Denver drafting Moreno where they did and NOT giving him 250 - 300 touches.250 carries fo 1175 yards, 30 catches for 240 yards, 9 total TDs
 
I don't really have a good feel for what the Bronco's will be post Cutler. I know what they want to be in theory but I'm skeptical on how successful they will be. Moreno will the main back in the offense and they have a strong line returning and some good wideouts...how their new offensive scheme meshes with the line and their ability to execute a new system remains to be seen. I think people should throw out the Bronco rushing stats pre-2009 because I think they are irrelevant...new coaching staff, new blocking schemes, new play caller, new plays, new QB...

I think the Bronco's will do worse than many expect this year and while they'll want to execute a power running game it won't be as easy during the season as it's drawn up during the summer. He's a tough one to predict since not only is he a rookie and the unknown that accompanies that distinction but everything on the team he's going to has changed dramatically after being very solid for a decade +.

250-1050-6 and 30-225-0. That being said if I'm wrong and the offense clicks, the line is rock solid, the defense comes together he could be in for a huge season.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
TS Garp said:
The Broncos know how to run the ball -- despite the fact that they went through running backs last season like they were going out of style, we still saw a guy like Peyton Hillis (a 7th round pick) average 5 yards a carry. They even made Tatum Bell look good in that last game.
Click to expand...
:coffee: The Broncos seem to have fallen off a bit from where they were five years ago re: the groundgame, but they were still pretty darn effective 387 -- 1862 -- 15. The team's 4.8 YPC was 3rd in the NFL also. Losing Cutler may make someof those running lanes smaller as more defenders move up into the box, but Moreno is also a far better runner than what they trotted out last year to carry the ball.I also don't see Denver drafting Moreno where they did and NOT giving him 250 - 300 touches.250 carries fo 1175 yards, 30 catches for 240 yards, 9 total TDs
Click to expand...
Matt Forte got 316-1238-8 and 63-477-4 in a weaker offense with Kyle Orton as the QB. I believe Moreno is better, the Bronco offensive line is better and recieving corps is better. If you're a defensive coordinator, are you really going to try and stack the box to stop Moreno and throw single coverage on Marshall, Royal and Scheffler? Kyle Orton isn't an All-Pro QB, but he is still pretty solid and he will make you pay if you do that. That's why I see Moreno having a good year. He might not get as many touches as Forte got, but he will be more effective with the touches he gets.285-1254-745-382-4
 
Banger said:
I don't really have a good feel for what the Bronco's will be post Cutler. I know what they want to be in theory but I'm skeptical on how successful they will be. Moreno will the main back in the offense and they have a strong line returning and some good wideouts...how their new offensive scheme meshes with the line and their ability to execute a new system remains to be seen. I think people should throw out the Bronco rushing stats pre-2009 because I think they are irrelevant...new coaching staff, new blocking schemes, new play caller, new plays, new QB...

I think the Bronco's will do worse than many expect this year and while they'll want to execute a power running game it won't be as easy during the season as it's drawn up during the summer. He's a tough one to predict since not only is he a rookie and the unknown that accompanies that distinction but everything on the team he's going to has changed dramatically after being very solid for a decade +.

250-1050-6 and 30-225-0. That being said if I'm wrong and the offense clicks, the line is rock solid, the defense comes together he could be in for a huge season.
Click to expand...
except the line returns 5 of 5 starters, the OL coach (Rick Dennison) remains, and the RB coach (Bobby Turner, the RB coach since the days of TD) remains. Last year in terms of play calling, Bates tried to mimick what McD was doing in the passing game, and McD adapted bits of the zone blocking scheme. McD is on record saying that the ZBS will remain in Denver, but it won't be as prevalent - i.e. Denver used ZBS maybe 75% of running plays, McD will use it maybe 50%.The rest of your post I agree with.

 
moleculo said:
Banger said:
I don't really have a good feel for what the Bronco's will be post Cutler. I know what they want to be in theory but I'm skeptical on how successful they will be. Moreno will the main back in the offense and they have a strong line returning and some good wideouts...how their new offensive scheme meshes with the line and their ability to execute a new system remains to be seen. I think people should throw out the Bronco rushing stats pre-2009 because I think they are irrelevant...new coaching staff, new blocking schemes, new play caller, new plays, new QB...

I think the Bronco's will do worse than many expect this year and while they'll want to execute a power running game it won't be as easy during the season as it's drawn up during the summer. He's a tough one to predict since not only is he a rookie and the unknown that accompanies that distinction but everything on the team he's going to has changed dramatically after being very solid for a decade +.

250-1050-6 and 30-225-0. That being said if I'm wrong and the offense clicks, the line is rock solid, the defense comes together he could be in for a huge season.
Click to expand...
except the line returns 5 of 5 starters, the OL coach (Rick Dennison) remains, and the RB coach (Bobby Turner, the RB coach since the days of TD) remains. Last year in terms of play calling, Bates tried to mimick what McD was doing in the passing game, and McD adapted bits of the zone blocking scheme. McD is on record saying that the ZBS will remain in Denver, but it won't be as prevalent - i.e. Denver used ZBS maybe 75% of running plays, McD will use it maybe 50%.The rest of your post I agree with.
Click to expand...
Good info Moleculo. :unsure:
 
Some of the anti-Moreno numbers in this thread (most of which either don't have any explanation or obviously have no idea what their projection pencil out too in terms of YPC or # of carries) are a little nuts:

239-840-3
Click to expand...
That would pencil out to 3.5 ypc - considering Denver averaged 4.8 ypc as a team last year (3rd in the NFL) with guys like Peyton Hillis and Michael Pittman being their lead runner - that's just silly. And 3 TDs?? Both Pittman and Hillis had more than 3 with less than 80 carries each. If Moreno has 3 times as many carries, you should at least bump that number to 9 or so.And the first post that has Moreno rushing for 700 yards - how many carries do figure him for ?? (given even a poor 3.8 ypc, that would only pencil out to about 185 rushes - that would have been less than half of the 387 attempts the Broncos had last year (withoout a first round talent running the ball).

I will be conservative, but actually attempt to use some common sense here. The Broncos can run the ball well (3rd highest YPC in the NFL last year supports that theory - as many have already posted). They will have a first round talent running the ball (not 7th round) - so I expect them to run the ball a little more often than last year. I will also drop Moreno's YPC down a little (compared to Hillis' 5.0 and Pittman's 4.8) to 4.2 to account for Kyle Orton under center instead of Plummer - even though you still have Marshall and Royal to keep teams honest.

I see Moreno having 240 carries (at 4.2 YPC), about 1008 yards rushing.

For receptions, I'm going even more conservative - if the Broncos are going to give him a rest, it'll likely be on 3rd downs, so:

30 recptions for 240 yards and 2 TDs.

Totals:

240-1008-8

30-240-2

 
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A rookie running back has rushed for over 1000 yards every season for over 15 years. Don't see the trend ending now. Moreno's got as good a chance as anyone. Who's gonna keep him from getting carries? Lamont Jordan? Ryan Torain? Come on now.

 
I do not think Moreno is a special talent and will underperform as the #12 and the first RB off the board. He's not fast enough or big enough to compensate for his speed. He's compared to Emmitt Smith because of vision and agility but he will not be running behind the great OL Dallas had and Smith was the exception not the rule as it relates to the lack of speed. Moreno has more value in a ppr league because of Moreno's passing game skillls.

Also things aren't going well in Denver. Chasing off your arguable franchise QB, having a poor draft IMO (excluding the Moreno pick) suggests to me a Denver team headed in the wrong direction and increases in my mind the chances of Moreno being a poor pick.

There has been criticism of Stafford for Georgia not winning enough despite having talent like Moreno and Massaquoi on board but I like Stafford a whole bunch and I think Moreno and Massaquoi were the more ordinary talents and Stafford was pulling them along.

projections 220-840-6 48-330-3

 
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Moonlight said:
I do not think Moreno is a special talent and will underperform as the #12 and the first RB off the board. He's not fast enough or big enough to compensate for his speed. He's compared to Emmitt Smith because of vision and agility but he will not be running behind the great OL Dallas had and Smith was the exception not the rule as it relates to the lack of speed. Moreno has more value in a ppr league because of Moreno's passing game skillls.

Also things aren't going well in Denver. Chasing off your arguable franchise QB, having a poor draft IMO (excluding the Moreno pick) suggests to me a Denver team headed in the wrong direction and increases in my mind the chances of Moreno being a poor pick.

There has been criticism of Stafford for Georgia not winning enough despite having talent like Moreno and Massaquoi on board but I like Stafford a whole bunch and I think Moreno and Massaquoi were the more ordinary talents and Stafford was pulling them along.

projections 220-840-6 48-330-3
Click to expand...
You do know Emmitt did not hit 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie right?
 
I like Moreno as a keeper but this year I think his touches will be limited lets not forget Bucky is there and he will see the field a good bit Bucky fits Denvers system very well and has good hands outta the back field So I believe Moreno will be eased into the game .By late season he will be better and a great keeper.

 
I haven't seen a ton of Moreno but what I have seen is that he is a great all around back. What stood out most to me was his vision and his receiving abilities (He appears to be a natural at receiving like Ronnie Brown, MJD or Steven Jackson). He should be effective running the ball in this offense and I would not be surprised to see him get 50+ receptions.

250-1125-8 50-450-2

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Moonlight said:
I do not think Moreno is a special talent and will underperform as the #12 and the first RB off the board. He's not fast enough or big enough to compensate for his speed. He's compared to Emmitt Smith because of vision and agility but he will not be running behind the great OL Dallas had and Smith was the exception not the rule as it relates to the lack of speed. Moreno has more value in a ppr league because of Moreno's passing game skillls.

Also things aren't going well in Denver. Chasing off your arguable franchise QB, having a poor draft IMO (excluding the Moreno pick) suggests to me a Denver team headed in the wrong direction and increases in my mind the chances of Moreno being a poor pick.

There has been criticism of Stafford for Georgia not winning enough despite having talent like Moreno and Massaquoi on board but I like Stafford a whole bunch and I think Moreno and Massaquoi were the more ordinary talents and Stafford was pulling them along.

projections 220-840-6 48-330-3
Click to expand...
I'm talking about Moreno in terms of dynasty. You do know Emmitt did not hit 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie right?
Click to expand...
 
baldbird said:
I like Moreno as a keeper but this year I think his touches will be limited lets not forget Bucky is there and he will see the field a good bit Bucky fits Denvers system very well and has good hands outta the back field So I believe Moreno will be eased into the game .By late season he will be better and a great keeper.
Click to expand...
Bonghogger is not going to take significant carries from Moreno. If any other RB gets significant touches besides Moreno I would expect that to be Lamont Jordan but he is pretty old now.I haven't broken the Broncos running game down meticulously yet so I don't have solid numbers to add to this thread. I do have a couple comments.The high YPC last year is an indication of the Bronco's line playing well. But it also came as a result of few carries and probably calling run plays in fortunite down and distance situations. I would not expect that YPC to be maintained with the team running more often in obvious run situations than they did last year. I believe they will try to get to 500 carries with Orton at QB and Moreno will get the biggest share. The carries still may fall short of that due to the defense. So I am thinking somewhere around 450 will be the end result with Moreno getting 66% of those ops.So 280 carries 4.2ypc 1176 yards 9TD 30 receptions 210 yards 2 TD.
 
Biabreakable said:
baldbird said:
I like Moreno as a keeper but this year I think his touches will be limited lets not forget Bucky is there and he will see the field a good bit Bucky fits Denvers system very well and has good hands outta the back field So I believe Moreno will be eased into the game .By late season he will be better and a great keeper.
Click to expand...
Bonghogger is not going to take significant carries from Moreno. If any other RB gets significant touches besides Moreno I would expect that to be Lamont Jordan but he is pretty old now.I haven't broken the Broncos running game down meticulously yet so I don't have solid numbers to add to this thread. I do have a couple comments.The high YPC last year is an indication of the Bronco's line playing well. But it also came as a result of few carries and probably calling run plays in fortunite down and distance situations. I would not expect that YPC to be maintained with the team running more often in obvious run situations than they did last year. I believe they will try to get to 500 carries with Orton at QB and Moreno will get the biggest share. The carries still may fall short of that due to the defense. So I am thinking somewhere around 450 will be the end result with Moreno getting 66% of those ops.So 280 carries 4.2ypc 1176 yards 9TD 30 receptions 210 yards 2 TD.
Click to expand...
just to be a stickler here: Bronco YPC and # of carries over the past 10 years:
Code: 
year	# of carries	avg2008	387	4.82007	429	4.62006	488	4.42005	542	4.72004	534	4.42003	543	4.82002	457	52001	481	3.92000	516	4.91999	465	4
I don't think you can conclude that the high YPC was a function of opportune plays (i.e. draws, etc). The Bronco O has traditionally maintained a high average, despite lots of attempts, and Moreno should be the most talented back since Portis.Even though there was regime change, as I mentioned earlier this team returns 5 of 5 starting OL, the OL coach and the RB coach. McD will not be entirely scrapping the zone blocking scheme despite installing a power running attack. So, in terms of team rushing, I think that past history can provide some guidance here.also, 450*.66=297 carries. Giving him 4.4 YPC (based on past team history, this might be conservative), this would put Moreno at about 1306 rushing yards. That's pretty close to what I will have when I finish my projections.
 
SuperJohn96 said:
The Man with the Plan said:
A rookie running back has rushed for over 1000 yards every season for over 15 years. Don't see the trend ending now. Moreno's got as good a chance as anyone. Who's gonna keep him from getting carries? Lamont Jordan? Ryan Torain? Come on now.
Click to expand...
A: The Denver Broncos defense.
Click to expand...
What difference does that make? There have been plenty of running backs who've had good seasons playing for bad offenses, bad defenses, bad teams in general. As long as the talent and opportunity is there that's all that matters. Everything else is just a bonus.
 
The Man with the Plan said:
SuperJohn96 said:
The Man with the Plan said:
A rookie running back has rushed for over 1000 yards every season for over 15 years. Don't see the trend ending now. Moreno's got as good a chance as anyone. Who's gonna keep him from getting carries? Lamont Jordan? Ryan Torain? Come on now.
Click to expand...
A: The Denver Broncos defense.
Click to expand...
What difference does that make? There have been plenty of running backs who've had good seasons playing for bad offenses, bad defenses, bad teams in general. As long as the talent and opportunity is there that's all that matters. Everything else is just a bonus.
Click to expand...
Opportunity is the answer. The defensive side of the ball was and will most likely still be a nightmare and they did little to stop the bleeding, especially shifting to a 3-4 alignment. As much as the fluff about shifting to a running team, they will be throwing to keep up. His ability to stay on the field during passing situations will be a big key, as well as the rotation of backs with a new coach that is not really loyal to the existing backs on the roster.
 
Tackling Dummies said:
The Man with the Plan said:
SuperJohn96 said:
The Man with the Plan said:
A rookie running back has rushed for over 1000 yards every season for over 15 years. Don't see the trend ending now. Moreno's got as good a chance as anyone. Who's gonna keep him from getting carries? Lamont Jordan? Ryan Torain? Come on now.
Click to expand...
A: The Denver Broncos defense.
Click to expand...
What difference does that make? There have been plenty of running backs who've had good seasons playing for bad offenses, bad defenses, bad teams in general. As long as the talent and opportunity is there that's all that matters. Everything else is just a bonus.
Click to expand...
Opportunity is the answer. The defensive side of the ball was and will most likely still be a nightmare and they did little to stop the bleeding, especially shifting to a 3-4 alignment. As much as the fluff about shifting to a running team, they will be throwing to keep up. His ability to stay on the field during passing situations will be a big key, as well as the rotation of backs with a new coach that is not really loyal to the existing backs on the roster.
Click to expand...
:shrug: Having a bad defense is not relevant IMO.

STL ranked 31st in total defense last year yet Steven Jackson rushed for over 1000 yards AND he missed a bunch of games.

HOU ranked 27th in total defense last year yet Steve Slaton rushed for over 1200 yards.

 
Snotbubbles said:
Tackling Dummies said:
The Man with the Plan said:
SuperJohn96 said:
The Man with the Plan said:
A rookie running back has rushed for over 1000 yards every season for over 15 years. Don't see the trend ending now. Moreno's got as good a chance as anyone. Who's gonna keep him from getting carries? Lamont Jordan? Ryan Torain? Come on now.
Click to expand...
A: The Denver Broncos defense.
Click to expand...
What difference does that make? There have been plenty of running backs who've had good seasons playing for bad offenses, bad defenses, bad teams in general. As long as the talent and opportunity is there that's all that matters. Everything else is just a bonus.
Click to expand...
Opportunity is the answer. The defensive side of the ball was and will most likely still be a nightmare and they did little to stop the bleeding, especially shifting to a 3-4 alignment. As much as the fluff about shifting to a running team, they will be throwing to keep up. His ability to stay on the field during passing situations will be a big key, as well as the rotation of backs with a new coach that is not really loyal to the existing backs on the roster.
Click to expand...
:confused: Having a bad defense is not relevant IMO.

STL ranked 31st in total defense last year yet Steven Jackson rushed for over 1000 yards AND he missed a bunch of games.

HOU ranked 27th in total defense last year yet Steve Slaton rushed for over 1200 yards.
Click to expand...
agreed, their d was bad last year and it seemed like all of their rb's had good games before they got hurt.i think Moreno will be a very good player in his first year

250 carries 1100 yards

45 catches 400 yards

9 td's

he will be the guy from opening day

 
moleculo said:
Biabreakable said:
baldbird said:
I like Moreno as a keeper but this year I think his touches will be limited lets not forget Bucky is there and he will see the field a good bit Bucky fits Denvers system very well and has good hands outta the back field So I believe Moreno will be eased into the game .By late season he will be better and a great keeper.
Click to expand...
Bonghogger is not going to take significant carries from Moreno. If any other RB gets significant touches besides Moreno I would expect that to be Lamont Jordan but he is pretty old now.I haven't broken the Broncos running game down meticulously yet so I don't have solid numbers to add to this thread. I do have a couple comments.The high YPC last year is an indication of the Bronco's line playing well. But it also came as a result of few carries and probably calling run plays in fortunite down and distance situations. I would not expect that YPC to be maintained with the team running more often in obvious run situations than they did last year. I believe they will try to get to 500 carries with Orton at QB and Moreno will get the biggest share. The carries still may fall short of that due to the defense. So I am thinking somewhere around 450 will be the end result with Moreno getting 66% of those ops.So 280 carries 4.2ypc 1176 yards 9TD 30 receptions 210 yards 2 TD.
Click to expand...
just to be a stickler here: Bronco YPC and # of carries over the past 10 years:
Code: 
year	# of carries	avg2008	387	4.82007	429	4.62006	488	4.42005	542	4.72004	534	4.42003	543	4.82002	457	52001	481	3.92000	516	4.91999	465	4
I don't think you can conclude that the high YPC was a function of opportune plays (i.e. draws, etc). The Bronco O has traditionally maintained a high average, despite lots of attempts, and Moreno should be the most talented back since Portis.Even though there was regime change, as I mentioned earlier this team returns 5 of 5 starting OL, the OL coach and the RB coach. McD will not be entirely scrapping the zone blocking scheme despite installing a power running attack. So, in terms of team rushing, I think that past history can provide some guidance here.also, 450*.66=297 carries. Giving him 4.4 YPC (based on past team history, this might be conservative), this would put Moreno at about 1306 rushing yards. That's pretty close to what I will have when I finish my projections.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the perspective. That is why we are here. I did not get to watch the Broncos much last year and I have not broken down the down and distance situations for the 387 carries last year. I also haven't looked at how many of the 387 were QB scrambles.BUT this is the lowest total number of carries since prior to 1999 based on your numbers above. Doesen't that make you wonder at all? Or consider that such a low percentage of running plays contributes to those plays success?I shaved off the 17 carries for a nice round number and because Moreno is a rookie. Looking forward to your final numbers on this as I will probably trust them more than mine.BTW I am getting close to done with NE. I haven't had excell working so been doing it all in notepad.
 
Biabreakable said:
moleculo said:
Biabreakable said:
baldbird said:
I like Moreno as a keeper but this year I think his touches will be limited lets not forget Bucky is there and he will see the field a good bit Bucky fits Denvers system very well and has good hands outta the back field So I believe Moreno will be eased into the game .By late season he will be better and a great keeper.
Click to expand...
Bonghogger is not going to take significant carries from Moreno. If any other RB gets significant touches besides Moreno I would expect that to be Lamont Jordan but he is pretty old now.I haven't broken the Broncos running game down meticulously yet so I don't have solid numbers to add to this thread. I do have a couple comments.The high YPC last year is an indication of the Bronco's line playing well. But it also came as a result of few carries and probably calling run plays in fortunite down and distance situations. I would not expect that YPC to be maintained with the team running more often in obvious run situations than they did last year. I believe they will try to get to 500 carries with Orton at QB and Moreno will get the biggest share. The carries still may fall short of that due to the defense. So I am thinking somewhere around 450 will be the end result with Moreno getting 66% of those ops.So 280 carries 4.2ypc 1176 yards 9TD 30 receptions 210 yards 2 TD.
Click to expand...
just to be a stickler here: Bronco YPC and # of carries over the past 10 years:
Code: 
year	# of carries	avg2008	387	4.82007	429	4.62006	488	4.42005	542	4.72004	534	4.42003	543	4.82002	457	52001	481	3.92000	516	4.91999	465	4
I don't think you can conclude that the high YPC was a function of opportune plays (i.e. draws, etc). The Bronco O has traditionally maintained a high average, despite lots of attempts, and Moreno should be the most talented back since Portis.Even though there was regime change, as I mentioned earlier this team returns 5 of 5 starting OL, the OL coach and the RB coach. McD will not be entirely scrapping the zone blocking scheme despite installing a power running attack. So, in terms of team rushing, I think that past history can provide some guidance here.also, 450*.66=297 carries. Giving him 4.4 YPC (based on past team history, this might be conservative), this would put Moreno at about 1306 rushing yards. That's pretty close to what I will have when I finish my projections.
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Thanks for the perspective. That is why we are here. I did not get to watch the Broncos much last year and I have not broken down the down and distance situations for the 387 carries last year. I also haven't looked at how many of the 387 were QB scrambles.BUT this is the lowest total number of carries since prior to 1999 based on your numbers above. Doesen't that make you wonder at all? Or consider that such a low percentage of running plays contributes to those plays success?I shaved off the 17 carries for a nice round number and because Moreno is a rookie. Looking forward to your final numbers on this as I will probably trust them more than mine.BTW I am getting close to done with NE. I haven't had excell working so been doing it all in notepad.
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I expected Denver to be passing more last year, but certainly as much as they did. I expected a 50/50 split - pretty high passing ratio for a Denver offense. I think that with the RB injuries (and the poor D), Shanahan & Bates threw more than they wanted to, and then even after that they guy carried away with the passing game because they were having success.One other significant aspect from last season - the OL was healthy, and they played well. This is a talented line, w/ Clady playing at a high level and Weigmann going to a Pro Bowl. They were well coached, they had continuity, and they had a scheme which lends itself well to ripping off big chunks of yards. That's why Denver has had success, and all of those pieces remain in place.
 
Knowshon Moreno is very young (will turn 22 this summer) and I think he is a good, not great running back. I think that Denver will use several RBs in their attack. I think that Buckhalter, Jordan, and Hillis will all be involved in the offense because that is why the Broncos brought them in. I think that Moreno should be the lead back, but not the bell cow all down back.

I also think that they will continue to utilize thier receiving options which are plentiful. I don't see them reducing the passing game as significantly as many are predicting. Their QB is not as talented as the one that they had last year, but his targets are the same. No reason not to use Marshall, Royal, Scheffler, and even Stokely or Gaffney.

Moreno is a good receiving back, but he is also a rookie. I can see them favoring the TE or Royal with drop-offs as often as their RBs and I believe that Moreno will not be used a lot in third down situations, both because it is difficult for rookies to pick up and because Denver has a lot of other options for that.

Knowshon Moreno 230 carries 966 yards 4.2 ypc 20 receptions for 140 yards and 6 total TDs

 
rzrback77 said:
Knowshon Moreno is very young (will turn 22 this summer) and I think he is a good, not great running back. I think that Denver will use several RBs in their attack. I think that Buckhalter, Jordan, and Hillis will all be involved in the offense because that is why the Broncos brought them in. I think that Moreno should be the lead back, but not the bell cow all down back.

I also think that they will continue to utilize thier receiving options which are plentiful. I don't see them reducing the passing game as significantly as many are predicting. Their QB is not as talented as the one that they had last year, but his targets are the same. No reason not to use Marshall, Royal, Scheffler, and even Stokely or Gaffney.

Moreno is a good receiving back, but he is also a rookie. I can see them favoring the TE or Royal with drop-offs as often as their RBs and I believe that Moreno will not be used a lot in third down situations, both because it is difficult for rookies to pick up and because Denver has a lot of other options for that.

Knowshon Moreno 230 carries 966 yards 4.2 ypc 20 receptions for 140 yards and 6 total TDs
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McD selected Moreno #12 overall pick and the owner openly criticized that decision addressing offense with that pick (at least thats what i heard). With that said, i think McD will give Moreno enough touches to show why he picked his guy KMoreno. Sure the other backs will get touches as, and Moreno wont get 300 rushes. 250-260 rushing attempts with 35-40 receptions is a realistic expectation IMO.
 
The first thing a coach does in the off-season is evaluate his teams performance from the year before - understand what worked well, and what needed fixing. Coaches then move to add personnel to shore up weaknesses, and to adjust for what they want to do.

What did McD do when he came in? How did he evaluate the 2008 Broncos, and what moves has he made to improve things?

Released Jeremy Bates, the Bronco playcaller.
retained Dennison and Turner, the long time OL and RB coach.
considered (and then did) bringing in a caretaker type QB (as opposed to a risk-taking gunslinger).
signed Buckhalter, Arrington, Jordan as free agents.
drafted Moreno in the first.
traded up to draft Quinn in the 2nd, a blocking TE despite having Scheffler and Graham.reading the tea leaves, I think that McD is going to try to take the air out of the ball and run...alot. They will run zone blocking, they will run power blocking, they will run win or lose. With the entire OL (and coaching staff) returning they will be successful. Moreno will be the prime beneficiary. He wasn't brought in to sit on the bench; he was brought in after the other FA backs were on board. As of right now, June 4, 2009, I expect Moreno to beat out the rest of the backs and give Denver what it has wanted for most of this decade - clarity @ the RB position.

I do not expect RBBC to the extent it has been used in other locations. I believe Moreno will be a three down back. Buckhalter will spell Moreno on the occasional 3rd down; Jordan will spell Moreno occasionally in short yardage, and Hillis will get a good number of carries and catches as well (actually, I see Hillis playing kind of an Alstott role). Moreno was McD's first draft pick of his head coaching career, and I expect McD to use Moreno to vindicate his controversial off-season moves.

When it's all said and done, I see Moreno @ 301/1311/10, with 29/263/3 in the passing game. ROY.

Disclaimer: it's early June. I haven't seen any fluff pieces in the Denver Post about Moreno since April, and I find that to be a little troubling. Risks to the above projection include Moreno not earning this role in training camp, injuries to the OL, and the dreaded rookie wall late in the season.

ETA: before anyone accuses me of inflating numbers because I'm a :goodposting: , let me add that I don't have any Bronco WR getting more than 900 yards - not Marshall, not Royal. The 2009 Broncos will be very different than the 2008 Broncos.

 
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moleculo said:
Biabreakable said:
baldbird said:
I like Moreno as a keeper but this year I think his touches will be limited lets not forget Bucky is there and he will see the field a good bit Bucky fits Denvers system very well and has good hands outta the back field So I believe Moreno will be eased into the game .By late season he will be better and a great keeper.
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Bonghogger is not going to take significant carries from Moreno. If any other RB gets significant touches besides Moreno I would expect that to be Lamont Jordan but he is pretty old now.I haven't broken the Broncos running game down meticulously yet so I don't have solid numbers to add to this thread. I do have a couple comments.The high YPC last year is an indication of the Bronco's line playing well. But it also came as a result of few carries and probably calling run plays in fortunite down and distance situations. I would not expect that YPC to be maintained with the team running more often in obvious run situations than they did last year. I believe they will try to get to 500 carries with Orton at QB and Moreno will get the biggest share. The carries still may fall short of that due to the defense. So I am thinking somewhere around 450 will be the end result with Moreno getting 66% of those ops.So 280 carries 4.2ypc 1176 yards 9TD 30 receptions 210 yards 2 TD.
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just to be a stickler here: Bronco YPC and # of carries over the past 10 years:
Code: 
year	# of carries	avg2008	387	4.82007	429	4.62006	488	4.42005	542	4.72004	534	4.42003	543	4.82002	457	52001	481	3.92000	516	4.91999	465	4
I don't think you can conclude that the high YPC was a function of opportune plays (i.e. draws, etc). The Bronco O has traditionally maintained a high average, despite lots of attempts, and Moreno should be the most talented back since Portis.Even though there was regime change, as I mentioned earlier this team returns 5 of 5 starting OL, the OL coach and the RB coach. McD will not be entirely scrapping the zone blocking scheme despite installing a power running attack. So, in terms of team rushing, I think that past history can provide some guidance here.also, 450*.66=297 carries. Giving him 4.4 YPC (based on past team history, this might be conservative), this would put Moreno at about 1306 rushing yards. That's pretty close to what I will have when I finish my projections.
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Just how relevant are Denver's rushing stats under Mike Shanahan (and recently with Jay Cutler) for 2009 projections?
 
T Bell said:
moleculo said:
Biabreakable said:
baldbird said:
I like Moreno as a keeper but this year I think his touches will be limited lets not forget Bucky is there and he will see the field a good bit Bucky fits Denvers system very well and has good hands outta the back field So I believe Moreno will be eased into the game .By late season he will be better and a great keeper.
Click to expand...
Bonghogger is not going to take significant carries from Moreno. If any other RB gets significant touches besides Moreno I would expect that to be Lamont Jordan but he is pretty old now.I haven't broken the Broncos running game down meticulously yet so I don't have solid numbers to add to this thread. I do have a couple comments.

The high YPC last year is an indication of the Bronco's line playing well. But it also came as a result of few carries and probably calling run plays in fortunite down and distance situations. I would not expect that YPC to be maintained with the team running more often in obvious run situations than they did last year. I believe they will try to get to 500 carries with Orton at QB and Moreno will get the biggest share. The carries still may fall short of that due to the defense. So I am thinking somewhere around 450 will be the end result with Moreno getting 66% of those ops.

So 280 carries 4.2ypc 1176 yards 9TD 30 receptions 210 yards 2 TD.
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just to be a stickler here: Bronco YPC and # of carries over the past 10 years:
year # of carries avg2008 387 4.82007 429 4.62006 488 4.42005 542 4.72004 534 4.42003 543 4.82002 457 52001 481 3.92000 516 4.91999 465 4I don't think you can conclude that the high YPC was a function of opportune plays (i.e. draws, etc). The Bronco O has traditionally maintained a high average, despite lots of attempts, and Moreno should be the most talented back since Portis.

Even though there was regime change, as I mentioned earlier this team returns 5 of 5 starting OL, the OL coach and the RB coach. McD will not be entirely scrapping the zone blocking scheme despite installing a power running attack. So, in terms of team rushing, I think that past history can provide some guidance here.

also, 450*.66=297 carries. Giving him 4.4 YPC (based on past team history, this might be conservative), this would put Moreno at about 1306 rushing yards. That's pretty close to what I will have when I finish my projections.
Click to expand...
Just how relevant are Denver's rushing stats under Mike Shanahan (and recently with Jay Cutler) for 2009 projections?
Click to expand...
 
moleculo said:
T Bell said:
moleculo said:
Even though there was regime change, as I mentioned earlier this team returns 5 of 5 starting OL, the OL coach and the RB coach. McD will not be entirely scrapping the zone blocking scheme despite installing a power running attack. So, in terms of team rushing, I think that past history can provide some guidance here.

also, 450*.66=297 carries. Giving him 4.4 YPC (based on past team history, this might be conservative), this would put Moreno at about 1306 rushing yards. That's pretty close to what I will have when I finish my projections.
Click to expand...
Just how relevant are Denver's rushing stats under Mike Shanahan (and recently with Jay Cutler) for 2009 projections?
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
Put me down in the category that thinks the change in regime (and loss of Cutler) could have a marked impact on the running game. Honestly, I expect a few more rushing attempts per game for DEN, but a lower YPC. I know they have a very solid line (and maybe I don't give that enough credit), but I simply think that offensive scheme and QB play can impact the effectiveness of the rushing game in a huge way. That isn't to say that this will necesasarily be the case this year in DEN, but I think the likelihood of a moderate decline in YPC is fairly decent.

 
mlball77 said:
Put me down in the category that thinks the change in regime (and loss of Cutler) could have a marked impact on the running game. Honestly, I expect a few more rushing attempts per game for DEN, but a lower YPC. I know they have a very solid line (and maybe I don't give that enough credit), but I simply think that offensive scheme and QB play can impact the effectiveness of the rushing game in a huge way. That isn't to say that this will necesasarily be the case this year in DEN, but I think the likelihood of a moderate decline in YPC is fairly decent.
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what do you think would be appropriate?FTR, I have the team YPC @ 4.2, and Moreno @ 4.35, both signioficantly lower than last years YPC and the lowest team YPC since 2001.

I think it comes down to projected workload in the end. if you believe that Buckhalter, Jordan, and Hillis are going to vulture significant carries, you won't have Moreno as high. if you think that he will be a 3 down back (like I do), you will have him very high - top 10 material.

 
moleculo said:
mlball77 said:
Put me down in the category that thinks the change in regime (and loss of Cutler) could have a marked impact on the running game. Honestly, I expect a few more rushing attempts per game for DEN, but a lower YPC. I know they have a very solid line (and maybe I don't give that enough credit), but I simply think that offensive scheme and QB play can impact the effectiveness of the rushing game in a huge way. That isn't to say that this will necesasarily be the case this year in DEN, but I think the likelihood of a moderate decline in YPC is fairly decent.
Click to expand...
what do you think would be appropriate?FTR, I have the team YPC @ 4.2, and Moreno @ 4.35, both signioficantly lower than last years YPC and the lowest team YPC since 2001.

I think it comes down to projected workload in the end. if you believe that Buckhalter, Jordan, and Hillis are going to vulture significant carries, you won't have Moreno as high. if you think that he will be a 3 down back (like I do), you will have him very high - top 10 material.
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That doesn't seem unreasonable to me. I am not quite so high on Moreno, but I think he will be the main man on the ground for DEN (based on the few blurbs etc. I've read). Plus, it looks like most of the FBG staff has him at 4.5 YPC or so. I think that is getting too high, and might be based off of DEN's past YPC too much (again, regime change and QB change). Just my view. So with that said, it is only fair I throw out a projection:Rushes: 240

Rush Yds: 1015

Rush TDs: 7

Recs: 30

Rec Yds: 210

Rec TDs: 1

 
I am a bit flustered over Knowshawn Moreno.

After hearing about a prospect I like to check them out but unfortunately whenever I caught him playing, he never did anything that made me think he was a top RB so I tended to downgrade him prior to the draft.

When he was the first RB selected AND by the Broncos, it shocked me.

I knew that the FF crowd would jump all over him and rank him as the best FF prospect but I don't think that he is.

I think Michael Crabtree is the best FF prospect from this draft and even though Shanahan is gone, the whole Denver RBBC backfield nightmares won't go away till proven wrong.

So I have two predjudices working against Knowshawn.

I didn't see anything in particularily special the handful of games when I saw him play and I have the Denver/Shanny FF RB hangover effect.

I agree that McDaniels will want to prove that taking a RB high was the right move so he'll try to feed him but on the other hand he is only 21 and I don't think Josh will go with a rookie early in the season and risk being ridiculed by starting a rookie before he's ready. McDaniels needs to win, or at least not lose badly at the start of the season. I don't think he can afford to play Knowshawn early, before he's proven himself.

I don't like the lack of, size, speed, but he has nice shake-and-bake. Color me skeptical that Knowshawn will be special. I believe he'll do fine but I just don't see special, certainly NOT EMMIT SMITH, I mean come on folks you don't compare a rookie who hasn't taken a snap to the all-time NFL rushing champion without elliciting :thumbup:

I don't see mega carries or yardage rushing the ball for Knowshawn in 2009

175 carries

788 yards

4.5 yds per carry

I also don't think he's going to get Forte-type of receptions because the Broncos have two legitimate pass receiving WRs and a legit pass receiving TE

38 receptions

330 yards

8.7 yds per rec

I don't know how to project scoring for him because I think that McDaniels will use the same philosophy that he used in New England and won't hesitate to utilize any RB who proves the best at the goal line and I'm not confident that a rookie will prove to be better at the goal line than all of the veteran RBs on the roster. I don't think McDaniels will try to force in Moreno at the goal line if he has a vet RB who is better deep in the red zone. I don't think McDaniels can risk losing points just to try and showcase his top pick so I see a combined TD total of:

6 combined TDs

 
The one thing i think people are underestimating the most about Moreno is his receptions. Moreno is a polished pass catcher and blocker, and is all but assured the 3rd down back duties for the team. Last year Kevin Faulk, the 3rd down back for the Patriots had 58 receptions (under McDaniels offensive play calling). And Faulk saw limited time on on 1st and 2nd down. Seeing as Moreno is the 3rd down back and will also get the majority of plays on 1st and 2nd down, i'm expecting Moreno to get at least 45 receptions with upside for more.

 
Snotbubbles said:
Tackling Dummies said:
The Man with the Plan said:
SuperJohn96 said:
The Man with the Plan said:
A rookie running back has rushed for over 1000 yards every season for over 15 years. Don't see the trend ending now. Moreno's got as good a chance as anyone. Who's gonna keep him from getting carries? Lamont Jordan? Ryan Torain? Come on now.
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A: The Denver Broncos defense.
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What difference does that make? There have been plenty of running backs who've had good seasons playing for bad offenses, bad defenses, bad teams in general. As long as the talent and opportunity is there that's all that matters. Everything else is just a bonus.
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Opportunity is the answer. The defensive side of the ball was and will most likely still be a nightmare and they did little to stop the bleeding, especially shifting to a 3-4 alignment. As much as the fluff about shifting to a running team, they will be throwing to keep up. His ability to stay on the field during passing situations will be a big key, as well as the rotation of backs with a new coach that is not really loyal to the existing backs on the roster.
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:( Having a bad defense is not relevant IMO.

STL ranked 31st in total defense last year yet Steven Jackson rushed for over 1000 yards AND he missed a bunch of games.

HOU ranked 27th in total defense last year yet Steve Slaton rushed for over 1200 yards.
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defenses that get burned (hou/stl) allow your offense to get back on the field with a need to score. Teams that get run over, get ground out and don't provide as many opportunities
 
Most of what moleculo said makes a lot of sense to me. The core of the running game remains intact with the exception of an upgrade at RB-and it is a unit that was surprisingly good last year despite a huge amount of injuries. Additionally, I'd be very surprised if they didn't run more than last year for two reasons-they threw so much last year and Cutler is gone.

Moreno won't be replaced on 3rd down. The other guys may take some carries early but I see Moreno getting the majority at the end of the day.

260/1200, 40/250, 10 combined TDs

 
I think that Peyton Hillis will be more involved than posters are thinking. He is an excellent blocker and receiver and has more capability running than most give him credit for. Mentioned in this thread several times that if their 7th round RB can do such and such, just think what the 12th overall pick will do. I see Hillis being very involved in the third down game and along with Buckhalter and even Jordan, the opportunities for Moreno will be more limited than expected by most in this thread.

 
baldbird said:
I like Moreno as a keeper but this year I think his touches will be limited lets not forget Bucky is there and he will see the field a good bit Bucky fits Denvers system very well and has good hands outta the back field So I believe Moreno will be eased into the game .By late season he will be better and a great keeper.
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Broncos | McDaniels has high hopes for MorenoSat, 04 Jul 2009 08:11:57 -0700KFFLBill Williamson, of ESPN.com, reports Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels envisions RB Knowshon Moreno as a three-down back. Sounds like Moreno will get most of the carries
 
Denver seems to have depth at RB. I'm not sold on Moreno has a star NFL caliber player. That offense is depleted and is going to struggle. The Denver D is suspect and could lead to Denver having to pass from behind in the 2nd half of games. No Marshall and no Cutler means Royal and Moreno will be the playmakers and I'm just not sold on that.

225 carries 790 yards rushing 205 receiving 6 TDs

 
Ilov80s said:
Denver seems to have depth at RB. I'm not sold on Moreno has a star NFL caliber player. That offense is depleted and is going to struggle. The Denver D is suspect and could lead to Denver having to pass from behind in the 2nd half of games. No Marshall and no Cutler means Royal and Moreno will be the playmakers and I'm just not sold on that.225 carries 790 yards rushing 205 receiving 6 TDs
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3.5 yards per carry?
 
Buffaloes said:
Ilov80s said:
Denver seems to have depth at RB. I'm not sold on Moreno has a star NFL caliber player. That offense is depleted and is going to struggle. The Denver D is suspect and could lead to Denver having to pass from behind in the 2nd half of games. No Marshall and no Cutler means Royal and Moreno will be the playmakers and I'm just not sold on that.225 carries 790 yards rushing 205 receiving 6 TDs
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3.5 yards per carry?
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Yes, loss of Shanny and his staff, Cutler, and Marshall will severely impact the effectiveness of the running game.
 
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