Player Spotlight: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals Options

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Carson Palmer Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

[Tanner9919]

520 att, 327 comp, 3701 yards, 28 td, 13 int
return to the top 5 QB's for Palmer.Benson will be a better version of Rudi Johnson for that offense..
Coles is a legit WR and I'd expect CJ to explode this season...
defense has gotten better and that might mean more time of possession for the Bengals' offense.

[MAC_32]

Inexperienced offensive line, bad running game, improving but still nothing special defense, solid weapons at his disposal in the passing game.

Sounds like a recipe for a solid fantasy QB and a less than spectacular real QB because he'll be leaned on too much to make plays.

Where he's currently going in drafts I'm buying.

[JDub15]

I think everyone is sleeping on the Bengals and on CP this year...

Last season, the Bengals took the term 'dink and dunk' to the next level on offense, averaging only 8.8 years per completion, becoming the first offense in league history to drop below 9 yards per catch. An injured Carson Palmer, extreme offensive line woes, and too many TJ Houshmandzadeh screen pass play calls were to blame.

This season they boast one of the best receiving tandems in the league with Chris Henry, Laveranues Coles, and a Chad Ochocino who has renewed his focus. The offensive line has been upgraded with the additions of Andre Smith and Joanthan Luigs.

Last year the Bengals threw the rockl 513 times... with an up-and-coming defense and a running game that should be solid, I'm going to project slightly lower numbers at 475, but that their avg. yard per catch rises from 8.8 to at least league average levels of 11.4.

From 2005-2007, CP completed an average of 65% of his passes, (I'm throwing out his 2009 campaign because of the state of the team), so I'm going with a 65% completion rate.

His average TD % over that same span was 5.4%, and INT% was 2.8%

This gives us:
3523 yards, 25 TDs, 13 INTs.
17 Rushes, 34 yards.

[The Man with the...]

I'm not seeing great things for Carson Palmer. The offensive line isn't as good as it was in the past. The receivers aren't as good. The running game isn't as good. His elbow injury caused him to miss most of last season. I don't know that he's healthy from that. This Bengals team isn't the good offensive force that we're used to seeing in years past. With all that going against him I don't think Carson Palmer can play for me this year.

[brakeyawself]

I'm not seeing great things for Carson Palmer. The offensive line isn't as good as it was in the past. The receivers aren't as good. The running game isn't as good. His elbow injury caused him to miss most of last season. I don't know that he's healthy from that. This Bengals team isn't the good offensive force that we're used to seeing in years past. With all that going against him I don't think Carson Palmer can play for me this year.

I get the injury concern. But even on a bad team Palmer is probably a top ten QB if he plays a full 16. That makes him probably the safest bet outside the top 5, if you dont include him in the top 5. Outside of the injury of course. Brady got injured though, his injury doesnt seem to be affecting his status quite as much. And the Offense definitley got better than last year. No question. Is Housh really that much better than Coles? Benson isnt better than what they had most of last year? Really? He could definitley play for you unless you are carrying, Manning, Brees, Brady or some such QB. How many players go their entire career without getting injured and missing some games a season or two? Im pretty sure the answer is very few. So unless Palmer has done real damage to his body, I dont see how he wont rebound.

[rzrback77]

I am basing my projections on Carson Palmer being fully recovered from his elbow issues of last season.

Not counting last season he has finished as QB1, QB4, and QB9 while averaging very close to 4,000 yards per season. Personally I like Coles as well as TJ Housh and beside Chad Ochocinco, they also have three other potential WR3s available. Chris Henry could be very good as the 3rd receiver. They have two second year players that were both highly thought of as rookies.

Their running game is not explosive so they will be passing a lot as that is their strength. I look for Palmer currently with an ADP of QB12 and 77 overall to provide excellent value to those that wait on their QB.

Carson Palmer 550 attempts 350 comps 64% 4070 yds 7.4 ypa 28 TDs and 18 ints

[Kiddnets]

High risk high reward player - will not cost a ton but one elbow flair up and he could be a donut for the year. Make sure you draft a good backup if you go with him.

[Routilla]

Any news on Palmer from TC? I heard he missed a few practices recently. Anyone know why?

[ScottyFargo]

Any news on Palmer from TC? I heard he missed a few practices recently. Anyone know why?

He was sick, it wasn't related to his arm unless anything has changed.

[two_dollars]

I wish he had just gone ahead and gotten the surgury. I'd feel a lot better about his arm staying healthy.

[AtomicDogg97]

I am relying on this guy as my QB1. Am I in trouble?

[gnarboots11]

I am relying on this guy as my QB1. Am I in trouble?

He is my only QB on a few of my teams. I am perfectly comfortable with it. I have allways taken high risk high reward QB's and done just fine. If it doesn't pan out there's allways free agent options. My backups in mind are Shaun Hill who is a FA and Matt Lienart when Warner goes down. I wanted Schaub but in all my leagues he went too high as far as im concerned, as in like 4th round high. So I just waited and got Palmer in like the 8th round, which is where I like to draft a QB. I can't imagine Palmer is anymore injury prone than Schaub, they both have sprained ankles in preseason. I think their ceilings are very similar, the only difference is Palmer was way cheaper. So screw it, take Palmer and let Schaub go with his overhype.