Player Spotlight: Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints Options

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Reggie Bush Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

[mdog1967]

180 carries for 650yrds
60 receptions for 550yrds
Around 1200 total yards and 7 total TD's
RB3 in TD leagues and RB2 in PPR.

I still view Bush as a good number 2 WR Not a Running back. A great flex play if your looking to gain at least a few steady points each week with a few weeks of number 1 RB/WR production.

This post has been edited by mdog1967: Jun 8 2009, 03:28 PM

[Darker Knight]

This guy may be one of the hardest players to project for 2009. He is coming off Micro-fracture surgery and has not stayed healthy since coming into the league. Bush has a ton more value in PPR leagues but is not a player I am looking to draft or trade for unless I am getting a steal. I am going to wait on projecting Bush until later this training camp.

[Blackjacks]

As long as Bush stays healthy he'll be a top 10 rb. and I think better than that.

Bash on me all you want but remember that Bush was the #1 rb in most leagues before he got injured against Carolina avg'ing over 17 points per a game (non ppr)

IF, and that's a big if, but if he can stay healthy I still think Reggie is a 2,000 yard guy

Predictions

240 carries
1100 yards
7 td's

85 catches
930 yards
4 td's

I know these are higher avg's and touches than he has ever had before

Please be gentle and God bless Reggie!!!!

[doubletrouble]

As long as Bush stays healthy he'll be a top 10 rb. and I think better than that.

Bash on me all you want but remember that Bush was the #1 rb in most leagues before he got injured against Carolina avg'ing over 17 points per a game (non ppr)

IF, and that's a big if, but if he can stay healthy I still think Reggie is a 2,000 yard guy

Predictions

240 carries
1100 yards
7 td's

85 catches
930 yards
4 td's



I know these are higher avg's and touches than he has ever had before

Please be gentle and God bless Reggie!!!!

[Pictus Cat]

As long as Bush stays healthy he'll be a top 10 rb. and I think better than that.

Bash on me all you want but remember that Bush was the #1 rb in most leagues before he got injured against Carolina avg'ing over 17 points per a game (non ppr)

IF, and that's a big if, but if he can stay healthy I still think Reggie is a 2,000 yard guy

Predictions

240 carries
1100 yards
7 td's

85 catches
930 yards
4 td's

I know these are higher avg's and touches than he has ever had before

Please be gentle and God bless Reggie!!!!

[Choke]

Welcome to the Pierre Thomas show.

Bush will be fine, all things considered. But he wont be the running games bell cow by any stretch of the imagination.
The fantasy owners of Bush will keep lamenting "that coulda been mine!" during the season. But will still get fine production as a #2 RB.

175-700-3 <=== thats actually an improvement
77-645-4 --- and you can add in another 2 TDs in returns.

[the spanker]

Welcome to the Pierre Thomas show.

Bush will be fine, all things considered. But he wont be the running games bell cow by any stretch of the imagination.
The fantasy owners of Bush will keep lamenting "that coulda been mine!" during the season. But will still get fine production as a #2 RB.

175-700-3 <=== thats actually an improvement
77-645-4 --- and you can add in another 2 TDs in returns.

In PPR how do you project both of them?

[Patoons]

If Reggie is healthy, he should have 100+ catches.

170-600-2
100-900-5

Phenomenal PPR RB... again... if healthy.

This post has been edited by Patoons: Jun 8 2009, 06:42 PM

[AnonymousBob]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

[Choke]

Welcome to the Pierre Thomas show.

Bush will be fine, all things considered. But he wont be the running games bell cow by any stretch of the imagination.
The fantasy owners of Bush will keep lamenting "that coulda been mine!" during the season. But will still get fine production as a #2 RB.

175-700-3 <=== thats actually an improvement
77-645-4 --- and you can add in another 2 TDs in returns.

In PPR how do you project both of them?

Full 1-point PPR really slams Bush into the bottom end of the #1RB territory (we are assuming he is *fully* healthy).
I have the end result of the two very similar with more TDs and rushes to Thomas and more total yardage and catches to Bush.
The difference for me is their current ADP descrepency. And the possibility that things remain the same and we see Bush continue to average 3.8 (or less) a rush and Thomas 4.8 a rush.

[SproutDaddy]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

You obviously haven't read many threads on Bush around here.

[Joe Paterno]

Love him every year.

The key is drafting him, using him early, then trading him. I don't think he's a guy who's going to make it through a ton of seasons unhurt.

[AnonymousBob]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

You obviously haven't read many threads on Bush around here.

You haven't seen too many SJax threads.

Bush gets criticized but Sjax gets crucified. I don't get it.

[SproutDaddy]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

You obviously haven't read many threads on Bush around here.

You haven't seen too many SJax threads.

Bush gets criticized but Sjax gets crucified. I don't get it.

Not saying you're wrong, but I'm guessing he and Bush are in the same boat. I personally wouldn't touch SJax for numerous reasons. I do own Reggie in one of my dynastys. Took him at 1.05 in the initial draft 2 years ago. This league gives 1 point per reception for RBs. He was leading that league in scoring by a LARGE margin before going down last year. If he misses significant time this year, then I will begin to worry. I've tried to acquire him in my other leagues, but surprisingly no one wants to get rid of him. Pierre on the other hand has been pretty easy to acquire. I think he and Reggie will be pretty close in FF production. I'm not much on projecting stats, but if I had to:

750 yds rushing
900 yds receiving
12-14 total tds

This is pretty conceivable as long as he stays healthy. Pierre will be the primary rusher, but Reggie will have a huge part in the offense and return game.

[stewartcjae]

Bush gets bashed because of all the hype coming out of college, "not a real RB", "i consider him a WR" ect....... He will never lead the league in rushing yards, but he will continue to put up very good Fantasy points when he is healthy. In ppr if he plays 16 games, he will be top 10, probably top 5. If he doesn't, then obviously he wont.

With Bush it isn't really about if he will get opportunity or if Thomas steals too much, it is only how many games you think he will play.



1200 total yards
60rec
6td's
imo would be his floor (16games)

1800+ total yards
90rec
12+
would not surprise me (16games)

This post has been edited by stewartcjae: Jun 8 2009, 09:50 PM

[Tanner9919]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

good point..
that's why I expect to see Pierre Thomas early and often...
because of his injury riddled past, I think they try to get Bush out in passing plays more often, allowing Thomas to be the workhorse back...
Bush's receptions could spike as high as 70 this season, but his rushes will hover around 120 carries..

120/456/2
70 rec/528/3

honestly, I think Bush finishes somewhere around RB #20-22..this is the Pierre Thomas show..Bush can't stay healthy and when he gets the carries he doesn't do much with them anyways..
lifetime 3.7 avg is pathetic.

[Truman]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

You obviously haven't read many threads on Bush around here.

You haven't seen too many SJax threads.

Bush gets criticized but Sjax gets crucified. I don't get it.

Jackson goes about 20 spots higher than Bush every year.

[MAC_32]

Obvious RB1 potential in ppr, but micro fracture surgery is a tricky beast. I'd look for him after Pierre Thomas and Kevin Smith fall off the board.

He always seems to go too high in non ppr leagues, I'm not even sure where I'd take him, probably in the middle rounds, his ceiling isn't nearly as high to justify the large risk.

[TheFanatic]

Love him every year.

The key is drafting him, using him early, then trading him. I don't think he's a guy who's going to make it through a ton of seasons unhurt.

Joe knows things. A profit can be made on this guy but relying on him for an entire season seems to be folly at this point...

[ATC1]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

You obviously haven't read many threads on Bush around here.

You haven't seen too many SJax threads.

Bush gets criticized but Sjax gets crucified. I don't get it.

Jackson goes about 20 spots higher than Bush every year.

About to post the same thing. Drafting SJax is much more of a risk as a first round talent.

[AnonymousBob]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

You obviously haven't read many threads on Bush around here.

You haven't seen too many SJax threads.

Bush gets criticized but Sjax gets crucified. I don't get it.

Jackson goes about 20 spots higher than Bush every year.

About to post the same thing. Drafting SJax is much more of a risk as a first round talent.

And he has a much greater upside. Lower ceiling = lower draft position.

I know I'm hijacking and I'm sorry guys...I just hate these seeming random inconsistencies.

[teamroc]

And he has a much greater upside. Lower ceiling = lower draft position.

I know I'm hijacking and I'm sorry guys...I just hate these seeming random inconsistencies.

Are you new to the internet and or forums?

[TheFanatic]

What's the over/under on how many games RB plays in 2009?

[rzrback77]

Reggie Bush can co-exist with Pierre Thomas. Thomas is not as good as Deuce used to be and he and Reggie split duties very effectively. Reggie has not and will not ever be a very consistent rusher, but he has skills and is an excellent receiveing option for the Saints. I think that he and Pierre are more likely to be seen together on the field than he and Deuce were.

Reggie Bush 06 16 gms 155 rushes 565 yds 3.6 ypc 121 targets 88 catches 72.7% 742 yds 8.4 ypc and 8 total TDs RB17 non-ppr FBG
Reggie Bush 07 12 gms 157 rushes 581 yds 3.7 ypc 98 targets 73 catches 74.4% 417 yds 5.7 ypc and 6 total TDs RB24 non-ppr FBG
Reggie Bush 08 10 gms 106 rushes 404 yds 3.8 ypc 73 targets 52 catches 71.2% 440 yds 8.5 ypc and 6 total TDs RB36 non-ppr FBG

His number of games has decreased in every year, but his effectiveness and especially targets per game have been consistent. He has averaged about ten carries and almost 8 targets per game for his career. I would have to check this out, but I would anticipate that his ADP has dropped quite a bit since his rookie year, but he still can be an effective fantasy option, especially in ppr leagues. I am not as big a believer in Thomas as most on the board, so I do not see any reduction in Reggie's opportunities in 09.

Reggie Bush 160 carries 640 yds 4.0 ypc 112 targets 81 catches 648 yds 8.0 ypc and 10 total TDs

[Stealthycat]

Welcome to the Pierre Thomas show.

With these projections you'd think the Saints are going to rush 450 times for 2500 yards and 25 TD's between Reggie and P Thomas.

P Thomas proved he's better than Reggie last year, and he's going to do it this year. Reggie is the garnish to the main dish guys .......

150 carries 700 yards 2 td's
50 receptions 450 yards 4 td's

[LawFitz]

In a full or 0.5ppr, would anyone consider taking Thomas and Bush in rds 3 and 4 after going WR/WR to open the draft?

Can the Saints be enough of a juggernaut to support both as your starting RBs if you have let's say, Fitz and Moss (or AJ) as your top two WRs?

I could see the following play out when picking at the turn in a 10-teamer...

1. Fitz
2. Moss
3. Bush
4. Pierre
5. Royal or Ochocinco
6. Moreno or K. Smith

In a start 3 WR/2 RB league with 1 or 0.5 PPR, I really like this lineup.

[AnonymousBob]

I don't think Bush would fall that far, but if he did I would have no problem with that team.

[booda]

In a full or 0.5ppr, would anyone consider taking Thomas and Bush in rds 3 and 4 after going WR/WR to open the draft?

Can the Saints be enough of a juggernaut to support both as your starting RBs if you have let's say, Fitz and Moss (or AJ) as your top two WRs?

I could see the following play out when picking at the turn in a 10-teamer...

1. Fitz
2. Moss
3. Bush
4. Pierre
5. Royal or Ochocinco
6. Moreno or K. Smith

In a start 3 WR/2 RB league with 1 or 0.5 PPR, I really like this lineup.

Even in a 10 teamer, no way you get K. Smith in the 6th round. At least you shouldn't.

[TheFanatic]

In a full or 0.5ppr, would anyone consider taking Thomas and Bush in rds 3 and 4 after going WR/WR to open the draft?

Can the Saints be enough of a juggernaut to support both as your starting RBs if you have let's say, Fitz and Moss (or AJ) as your top two WRs?

I could see the following play out when picking at the turn in a 10-teamer...

1. Fitz
2. Moss
3. Bush
4. Pierre
5. Royal or Ochocinco
6. Moreno or K. Smith

In a start 3 WR/2 RB league with 1 or 0.5 PPR, I really like this lineup.

Even in a 10 teamer, no way you get K. Smith in the 6th round. At least you shouldn't.

Or Moreno. Too much opportunity there. Who's going to start over the kid?

[Chase Stuart]

In a full or 0.5ppr, would anyone consider taking Thomas and Bush in rds 3 and 4 after going WR/WR to open the draft?

Can the Saints be enough of a juggernaut to support both as your starting RBs if you have let's say, Fitz and Moss (or AJ) as your top two WRs?

I could see the following play out when picking at the turn in a 10-teamer...

1. Fitz
2. Moss
3. Bush
4. Pierre
5. Royal or Ochocinco
6. Moreno or K. Smith

In a start 3 WR/2 RB league with 1 or 0.5 PPR, I really like this lineup.

Even in a 10 teamer, no way you get K. Smith in the 6th round. At least you shouldn't.

Or Moreno. Too much opportunity there. Who's going to start over the kid?

By August I think you won't be able to get Moreno in the 3rd round, much less the 6th.

[jurb26]

Welcome to the Pierre Thomas show.

With these projections you'd think the Saints are going to rush 450 times for 2500 yards and 25 TD's between Reggie and P Thomas.

P Thomas proved he's better than Reggie last year, and he's going to do it this year. Reggie is the garnish to the main dish guys .......

150 carries 700 yards 2 td's
50 receptions 450 yards 4 td's

Bush has had more than 50 receptions all 3 years he's been in the league (88, 73, 52) and that is with him not playing a full season in any of those years. Projecting only 50 receptions just looks foolish. I can understand if you like Thomas, but as others have mentioned Thomas is not better than McAllister was and Bush got his in bunches with him around.

Bush continues to carry the label of a fantasy bust, but IMO this guy is pure value. He has been bothered by injuries but otherwise Bush has produced extremely well for his fantasy owners. This year will be no different. Projections based on a full 16 games:

192 rushes, 715 yds, 89 receptions, 720 yds, 10 TDs.

[Dancing Bear]

Best case scenario assuming Bush is healthy is the following:

Rushes : 174
Yards : 650
TD's : 5
Targets : 120
Receptions : 85
Yards : 650
TD's : 3

This means that he maintains his 40% rushes ratio and his 20% target/ receptions ratio.

In a non-ppr that puts him at RB20.

Given that, I personally do not believe that Bush will obtain these numbers for two reasons.

a) He is recovering from his second knee surgery in less than two years
b) Thomas, Moore, Colston and Shockey will all continue to show that they can contribute at an elite level and make it even more reasonable for Payton and Brees to distribute the ball evenly

That being said, value for Bush depends entirely upon what you have to pay for him or when you have to draft him. Balancing this with other RB's who may be equivalent in value but at a much lower cost. RB's Addai, Grant, Parker, L. Johnson, TBay RB, BAL RB, NE RB to name a few ...

[moderated]

Without McAllister i think Reggie will be asked to carry a bit more of the rushing load as well as keep his receptions. PT isn't near the caliber player Deuce was nor can he handle the type of carries Deuce did, so even if PT has a decent role it won't be big enough to affect Reggie as much as Deuce did.

240 carries/1032 yards
85 receptions, 700 yds
13 TD's total

Good enough to be a top RB in non-PPR, and in PPR has a good shot to be the #1 fantasy RB (he was top 3 in PPR before injury last season).

While he is an injury risk, his micro surgery wasn't a full procedure, they only used some techniques used in micro-fracture surgery and all reports are he's looking great in practices so far.

This post has been edited by moderated: Jun 11 2009, 02:55 PM

[Dancing Bear]

240 carries/1032 yards
85 receptions, 700 yds
13 TD's total

Hate to pick on you moderated, but I have some significant problems with your projections

a) There is no way you can turn a RB with a historical 3.7 YPR into a RB with a 4.3 YPR
b) There is no way that he now all of a sudden takes on more than 50% of New Orleans' rushes
c) Your projecting nearly a 100% increase in TD's above his seasonal average [from 6.7 to 13]
d) You are projecting nearly a 50% increase in his PPG from 10.8 to 15.7 [non-PPR]

[moderated]

240 carries/1032 yards
85 receptions, 700 yds
13 TD's total

Hate to pick on you moderated, but I have some significant problems with your projections

a) There is no way you can turn a RB with a historical 3.7 YPR into a RB with a 4.3 YPR
b) There is no way that he now all of a sudden takes on more than 50% of New Orleans' rushes
c) Your projecting nearly a 100% increase in TD's above his seasonal average [from 6.7 to 13]
d) You are projecting nearly a 50% increase in his PPG from 10.8 to 15.7 [non-PPR]

A)I can project improvement from 3.7 to a more average 4.3 YPC due to him having 3 years of experience now and all indications are that he's been working harder then ever this offseason learning how to be a more complete RB. It isn't like 4.3 YPC is a ton for a RB.

B)he can take on a 60%ish of the rushes in NO as Deuce isn't there anymore. PT is not Deuce and can't carry a Deuce like role. NO has no other RB's behind those two and i think Bush will be the guy to have the majority of the carries between the two.

C)He's averaged 8.2 TD's a year since being in the league, and last year he really only played in 8 games and had 6 TD's in those games. Now that NO doesn't have a true goal-line back Bush might be left in for a few of those whereas before Deuce got EVERY goal-line look. I don't think Bush will get a lot of goal-line carries, but do think he will be left in for some this season

D)Non-PPR he's averaged 11.4 PPG (and many of the games used to calculate this he only played a quarter or so) and i think his role will increase this year plus experience will pay off, so i do expect a 30-40% increase in stats for Reggie if he can stay healthy.


McAllister is no longer there, all they have is PT behind Reggie and even those who like PT have to admit he is not near the player deuce was, not even close. Reggie will be getting as much work as he can handle this season. Now if they bring in a solid RB like Edge then this will change, but as it stands this is Bush's breakout season IMO.

[fruity pebbles]

Without McAllister i think Reggie will be asked to carry a bit more of the rushing load as well as keep his receptions. PT isn't near the caliber player Deuce was nor can he handle the type of carries Deuce did, so even if PT has a decent role it won't be big enough to affect Reggie as much as Deuce did.

240 carries/1032 yards
85 receptions, 700 yds
13 TD's total

Good enough to be a top RB in non-PPR, and in PPR has a good shot to be the #1 fantasy RB (he was top 3 in PPR before injury last season).

While he is an injury risk, his micro surgery wasn't a full procedure, they only used some techniques used in micro-fracture surgery and all reports are he's looking great in practices so far.

Don't really wanna nitpick cause you can project whatever you want but what exactly is a less than full micro fracture procedure and only using some techniques? I know that sounds less bad than microfracture surgery but i can assure you its the same thing thrown out by people trying to make it seem less serious for whatever reason. You either have cartilage damage in a section or you don't. Microfracture is only used in areas less than a couple cms anyways so its always patients with a small amount of cartilage loss.

This post has been edited by fruity pebbles: Jun 11 2009, 03:52 PM

[moderated]

Without McAllister i think Reggie will be asked to carry a bit more of the rushing load as well as keep his receptions. PT isn't near the caliber player Deuce was nor can he handle the type of carries Deuce did, so even if PT has a decent role it won't be big enough to affect Reggie as much as Deuce did.

240 carries/1032 yards
85 receptions, 700 yds
13 TD's total

Good enough to be a top RB in non-PPR, and in PPR has a good shot to be the #1 fantasy RB (he was top 3 in PPR before injury last season).

While he is an injury risk, his micro surgery wasn't a full procedure, they only used some techniques used in micro-fracture surgery and all reports are he's looking great in practices so far.

Don't really wanna nitpick cause you can project whatever you want but what exactly is a less than full micro fracture procedure and only using some techniques? I know that sounds less bad than microfracture surgery but i can assure you its the same thing thrown out by people trying to make it seem less serious for whatever reason. You either have cartilage damage in a section or you don't. Microfracture is only used in areas less than a couple cms anyways so its always patients with a small amount of cartilage loss.

From everything i've read the recovery depends on the severity of the cartilage damage and that Reggie's damage was relatively minor.

So while there may not be a big difference in the actual surgery, the main thing is that the damage being repaired was minor and thus that is why his recovery has been very quick and all indications are that he's been looking at full strength in practices so far.

[Holy Schneikes]

Here's something to chew on. Completely forget about fantasy points in any format for just a minute. You are an NFL head coach, and have two players at the same position. Over the past three years (since Bush has been in the league - a very significant sample size) one guy gives you:

PER RUSH
4.9 yards, .33 first downs (1 FD every 3 rushes), .056 TDs (1 TD per 18 rushes)
and PER TARGET
.78 receptions, 6.8 yards, .38 first downs (1 FD every 2.7 targets), .063 TDs (1 TD every 16 targets)

The OTHER guy gives you:
3.7 yards, .19 first downs (1 FD every 5 rushes), .029 TDs (1 TD per 35 rushes)
and PER TARGET
.73 receptions, 5.5 yards, .27 first downs (1 FD every 3.7 targets), .027 TDs (1 TD every 37 targets)

Forget hype, forget draft position. Who you gonna give the ball to? Oh, and just for grins consider that the guy who HASN'T produced in the past and relies almost exclusively on quickness is coming off of a significant knee surgery.

Everybody always claims Bush has a unique skillset and is a big play waiting to happen. But the FACTS are, even when you talk about receiving - Bush's so-called specialty, he relies on MASSIVE amounts of opportunity to generate his numbers. When you break things out and compare apples to apples, Thomas has actually done significantly more with each opportunity as a receiver as well as a runner. Because of his draft position, and the investment in him, the team has been forcing the ball to Bush despite his lack of production. Bush is a good returner. He won't earn his paycheck there, but he will at least help the team. The team has known this for a while, but they almost had to keep trying to make Bush something he is not. But they can't do it forever, and I believe we'll see the big changeover this year. We would have seen it LAST year if he hadn't gotten injured.

[TheFanatic]

A)I can project improvement from 3.7 to a more average 4.3 YPC due to him having 3 years of experience now and all indications are that he's been working harder then ever this offseason learning how to be a more complete RB. It isn't like 4.3 YPC is a ton for a RB.

How many RB's "figure it out" after 3 years in the league? Some have "figured it out" later on in their careers once they were given the chance to carry the rock ala Priest Holmes and Stephen Davis. But this guy has not been held back by situation. He has been asked the shoulder the load for 3 years. And each year he has gotten injured. But take the injuries out of the equation, when he has been healthy he just doesn't run the ball well.

He worked hard in the offseason last year to be a more well rounded back. How did that work out? Well, he had his highest YPC of his career - 3.8. Which was .1 higher than 2007 and .2 higher than 2006 so he has shown improvement. But at this rate it will be 2013 before he has a 4.3 YPC

B)he can take on a 60%ish of the rushes in NO as Deuce isn't there anymore. PT is not Deuce and can't carry a Deuce like role. NO has no other RB's behind those two and i think Bush will be the guy to have the majority of the carries between the two.

So PT can't carry the load like Deuce but you think Bush can? Based on what? His inability to run well between the tackles? His subpar chain moving abilities on the ground? Oh, maybe it's that grit and determination that keeps him on the field week in and week out? Is it his body style? 6'0" and 203 that strikes you as someone who could tote the ball 60% more than he has ever carried it in his career? Is it the fact that his first name doesn't sound like some wussy Frenchman?

PT can't take the Deuce role? Surely not at 5'11" and 215. No, the primary ball carrier should be lighter and taller right? Why would they want Pierre Thomas and his full 1.0 higher YPC than Bush in the backfield? Because PT doesn't do enough commercials? Not only does PT fit the mold of Deuce better than RB he may fit the role of Bush better than Bush. PT had a 9.2 yards per reception last year. Bush's 52 catches yielded 4 TD's. PT's 31 catches yielded 3. I realize the sample size is small, but it's all we got and with that sample size we seem to have an extremely well rounded every down back. That's something that Reggie has never shown he can be no matter how much he works in the offseason.

C)He's averaged 8.2 TD's a year since being in the league, and last year he really only played in 8 games and had 6 TD's in those games. Now that NO doesn't have a true goal-line back Bush might be left in for a few of those whereas before Deuce got EVERY goal-line look. I don't think Bush will get a lot of goal-line carries, but do think he will be left in for some this season

What has Bush done in his entire career to merit a single goal line carry going into his 4th year? It would seem Kim Kardasian has a better chance of scoring from inside the 5 than Bush considering the load he carries...

D)Non-PPR he's averaged 11.4 PPG (and many of the games used to calculate this he only played a quarter or so) and i think his role will increase this year plus experience will pay off, so i do expect a 30-40% increase in stats for Reggie if he can stay healthy.

Why will experience pay off?

McAllister is no longer there, all they have is PT behind Reggie and even those who like PT have to admit he is not near the player deuce was, not even close. Reggie will be getting as much work as he can handle this season. Now if they bring in a solid RB like Edge then this will change, but as it stands this is Bush's breakout season IMO.

It doesn't matter if PT is not Deuce. The fact remains that Reggie is not near the player PT is and PT is the guy who will be toting the rock. Reggie will keep doing commercials and in a year or two he will be cut by the Saints when it is not so cost prohibitive and Reggie will fade into what he is - Amp Lee with a nose for the endzone...


The Reggie Bush hype machine needs to be shut down... Great gimmick and product spokesman, but not a good RB.

[SproutDaddy]

Reggie will keep doing commercials and in a year or two he will be cut by the Saints when it is not so cost prohibitive and Reggie will fade into what he is - Amp Lee with a nose for the endzone...


The Reggie Bush hype machine needs to be shut down... Great gimmick and product spokesman, but not a good RB.

This is the most ridiculous post I've seen in a while. You should actually watch a Saints game and quit making assumptions based on stat lines. While he may not be the model) a la Tomlinson, he's quite a dynamic and exciting football player to watch. I love the fact he plays for my team. The Saints will not cut him. Saying that makes you look like a horses's ####. It's in my opinion that we have yet to see what his full potential is. Thomas Jones was in the league quite a few years before he broke through.

[TheFanatic]

Reggie will keep doing commercials and in a year or two he will be cut by the Saints when it is not so cost prohibitive and Reggie will fade into what he is - Amp Lee with a nose for the endzone...


The Reggie Bush hype machine needs to be shut down... Great gimmick and product spokesman, but not a good RB.

This is the most ridiculous post I've seen in a while. You should actually watch a Saints game and quit making assumptions based on stat lines.

Sorry, but the stats do not lie here. His YPC is atrocious. He is a dynamic player, but he is not a good RB. He may be a great pass catcher but he is not a good NFL RB and that is a fact.

While he may not be the model) a la Tomlinson, he's quite a dynamic and exciting football player to watch. I love the fact he plays for my team.

Being fun to watch doesn't make one a great player. Michael Vick was a blast to watch. But that didn't make him a good QB. I love to watch Tim Hightower run. He runs with intensity and raw power but it doesn't make him a good RB.

Do you think you may be tad too close to the situation to be objective here? I give you exhibit A:

The Saints will not cut him. Saying that makes you look like a horses's ####.

Take things personal much?

Do you really think that when Reggie Bush comes to the Saints in a couple of years with a request for a 7 figure signing bonus that the Saints are going to give the guy more than $10 million to stay and get them under 4 yards a carry and miss 4-5 games a year? No they will not. They will cut Reggie unless Reggie asks for a signing bonus more commensurate with his performance but seeing how Reggie gobbles up endorsement deals I just don't see Reggie as the charitable sort. Reggie may sell a lot of Jerseys but he doesn't get enough first downs.

It's in my opinion that we have yet to see what his full potential is. Thomas Jones was in the league quite a few years before he broke through.

Wow, one example of a guy that had opportunity early, squandered it and was successful later. With statistics like that backing up your claim. Couple that with blind devotion of a homer and I just have no hope to win this argument?

Get on the Pierre Thomas bandwagon now while you can...

[Armor & Sword]

In PPR he is superb value this year. Non PPR he is just another back.

It's that simple.

Pierre Thomas is going to be the workhorse and Bush is going to be in the slot and running safety valve/dump off routes with the occasional RB drag route down the sideline. The fact of the matter is with that offense when you have Thomas and Bush on the field at the same time it will cause nightmares for the defense. You have to account for Reggie Bush at all times. I can also see Thomas getting plenty of work when they want to run clock and then getting Reggie in their as a change up and getting the opportunity to bust some long runs.

The Saints have a great situation and should be the best offense in the game this upcoming season.


Reggie Bush

500 Yards Rushing
900 Yards Recieving
75 Receptions
10 total TD's.

This post has been edited by Armor & Sword: Jun 13 2009, 07:31 AM

[jurb26]

In PPR he is superb value this year. Non PPR he is just another back.

It's that simple.

Pierre Thomas is going to be the workhorse and Bush is going to be in the slot and running safety valve/dump off routes with the occasional RB drag route down the sideline. The fact of the matter is with that offense when you have Thomas and Bush on the field at the same time it will cause nightmares for the defense. You have to account for Reggie Bush at all times. I can also see Thomas getting plenty of work when they want to run clock and then getting Reggie in their as a change up and getting the opportunity to bust some long runs.

The Saints have a great situation and should be the best offense in the game this upcoming season.


Reggie Bush

500 Yards Rushing
900 Yards Recieving
75 Receptions
10 total TD's.

Something doesn't add up here about your post. You say in PPR he is superb and I agree. You say in non PPR his is just another back to which I don't agree and neither do your projections IMO. How is 1400 total yds and 10 TDs just another back? That is a pretty damn good back no matter how you slice it.

[Easy Money]

A healthy Reggie as my RB2 is = to fantasy gold. Don't know for sure how he is going to be this year coming back from micro surgery but i love the fact that he scores me 15 or more points a week in a ppr league when he's healthy. I personally don't care if he doesn't get 100 yards a game rushing just keep those receptions coming.

Game Day on Sundays at the dome about 40% of the jerseys are #25 jerseys and the dome goes nuts anytime he breaks a big play. Doubt he's going anywhere any time soon.

healthy
575 rushing
80 rec.
650recieving
12 TD's

Slow Start because of injury
450 Rushing
70 Rec.
570 recieving
8 TD's


This post has been edited by Easy Money: Jun 13 2009, 08:59 AM

[Armor & Sword]

In PPR he is superb value this year. Non PPR he is just another back.

It's that simple.

Pierre Thomas is going to be the workhorse and Bush is going to be in the slot and running safety valve/dump off routes with the occasional RB drag route down the sideline. The fact of the matter is with that offense when you have Thomas and Bush on the field at the same time it will cause nightmares for the defense. You have to account for Reggie Bush at all times. I can also see Thomas getting plenty of work when they want to run clock and then getting Reggie in their as a change up and getting the opportunity to bust some long runs.

The Saints have a great situation and should be the best offense in the game this upcoming season.


Reggie Bush

500 Yards Rushing
900 Yards Recieving
75 Receptions



10 total TD's.

Something doesn't add up here about your post. You say in PPR he is superb and I agree. You say in non PPR his is just another back to which I don't agree and neither do your projections IMO. How is 1400 total yds and 10 TDs just another back? That is a pretty damn good back no matter how you slice it.

Yeah.....I am being fat on the TD production. If that TD total is say....3-4 then his receptions make up for it big time in PPR

[Manster]

Why do so many people criticize SJax for being "injury prone" while giving Bush a free pass? Bush has missed 10 games the last two seasons.

good point..
that's why I expect to see Pierre Thomas early and often...
because of his injury riddled past, I think they try to get Bush out in passing plays more often, allowing Thomas to be the workhorse back...
Bush's receptions could spike as high as 70 this season, but his rushes will hover around 120 carries..

120/456/2
70 rec/528/3

honestly, I think Bush finishes somewhere around RB #20-22..this is the Pierre Thomas show..Bush can't stay healthy and when he gets the carries he doesn't do much with them anyways..
lifetime 3.7 avg is pathetic.

this is about what i'd expect, maybe a little higher on the rushing yds. maybe a few more TD's.

Bush is what he is. he runs around trying to make things happen, and sometimes they do. but, he'll never be a between the tackles guy. his poosy-footing just doesnt translate that well from college to the NFL.

Colston and Thomas and obviously Brees are the guys to target in this offense. Bush in ppr.

This post has been edited by Manster: Jun 13 2009, 04:31 PM

[footballman_6969...]

Any news on Reggie's knee?

[rjv]

Basically to sum it up, In a PPR league Bush is a top 10 RB no doubt. In a non PPR league Bush shouldnt even be considered as a RB3, being that Thomas is the main guy.

[Ripleys]

I'm a big Bush fan, and I own him in a few PPR dynasty leagues (although I moved him in several leagues this off season too) but there is no way you can say Bush is a top 10 RB in PPR league, "no doubt." There is LOTS of doubt. Can he play enough games to score in the top 10? How much will P. Thomas affect his numbers this year now that Thomas is the starting #1 back? I hope he does well, but he's anything but a slam dunk to be a top 10 player IMO.

This post has been edited by Ripleys: Jul 12 2009, 10:45 AM