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Player Spotlight: Kevin Smith (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Kevin Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I really like Smith to improve on his rookie campaign this year. Last season as a rookie he started out with only 70 carries in the first 8 games while finishing strong with 239 carries. He will easily increase his carries, I really don't think Maurice Morris is much of a threat to that. Team rushes will still be low due to the team still struggling and leaning on Calvin and the passing game. I think his receptions will actually go down this year with a real pass catching TE on the roster in Pettigrew.

275/1100/10 & 35/245/0

 
After watching his college career at UCF and second half of his rookie season, I'm convinced that Kevin Smith is under the radar to most fantasy footballers. There's no telling who will win the QB job, but if Stafford ends up victorious, I would expect Schwartz to follow Mike Smith's gameplan last year - rely heavily on the running game.

Kevin Smith offers the rare flexibility to draft a high end RB2 at a low price - especially good for those who may take a WR with their second pick. Because Morris is the only other back that may see significant time, Smith is a virtual workhouse with a very high floor. The Lions finished with only 349 rushing attempts last year. I expect that number to approach at least 400 this year.

273 attempts, 1120 yards, 9 TDs

30 catches, 250 yards, 1 TD

 
After watching his college career at UCF and second half of his rookie season, I'm convinced that Kevin Smith is under the radar to most fantasy footballers.
This.I haven't done my projections for Detroit yet, but being local to UCF and seeing a good bit of his college work, plus his rookie season now, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of folks are thinking "he wasn't a first rounder and prior to the '08 draft seemingly every talking head with a banana, a piece of string and an internet connection condemned him for "being a glider."" Drafters couple that with the team he's on and keep on moving, or at least they're moving on a bit earlier than they probably should.For a frame of reference, in numerous recent mocks I've consistently seen him get left behind for guys like Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and sometimes Lynch, Addai and McFadden. I'm not saying he's better than any of those guys, nor do I think any of them are necessarily going to be "high end" in 2009, but Smith's not fighting for carries with anyone at present(a la the NO backs, McFadden and Addai). Who is Detroit's #2 tailback right now, you ask? Mo Morris. *yawn* Nor is he guaranteed to miss at least 3 games(as Lynch will). I don't know that I'll project him for 300 total touches, but he may wind up close. Depending on the Lions' schedule, he may well do more with those touches than a lot of folks think. I think he'll be a pretty strong RB3, but right now I'm seeing him being treated as if he's a RB4 by a lot of drafters. I expect he will start a bit of an upward trend as the pre-season gets underway.
 
It's amazing that not a lot of people talk about Kevin Smith, especially when you take a deeper look at his numbers from last year and then factor in the fact that he was:

A.) A rookie running back and,

B.) Also stuck on a team that was SO bad, they couldn't even win one single game.

Now keeping these two things n mind, let's roll out his 2008 regular season stats shall we?

2008 STATS: 238 rushes for 976 yards, 8 rushing TD's, 39 receptions for 286 yards and 2 fumbles

Certainly not the most eye-popping numbers, but once again, just remember that he was a rookie, RB on one of the most horrific and epically untalented team ever to suit up for a whole season in the National Football League. Also, his offensive line left MUCH to be desired (to say the very least).Many people have been subscribing to the logic that the Lions didn't really do very much to shore up their offensive line for Smith, so they in turn have been losing interest very quickly. However! The Lions DID manage to draft behemoth TE Brandon Pettigrew, whose pass catching skills came under fire at the NFL Draft back in April, but whose run blocking skills have never come under question since they've always been so good.

Rolling the dice on Kevin Smith in whatever type of league you have might be a tad risky and a bit scary at the time, but all signs are pointing towards the kid having some legit, workhorse talent. Not to mention it would probably be a safe assumption to think that while the Lions may not be competing for a playoff spot anytime in the immediate future, they look to be improving, heading in the right direction and are of course, finally rid of the worst GM in the history of the position, Matt Millen!

Should Lions rookie QB Matthew Stafford get the starting nod, expect Smith to get even MORE carries to help lift the load on the signal-calling rookie. Even if Daunte Culpepper wins the QB job early in the season, Smith is still going to get a generous and hefty amount of carries, especially since he showed the organization last year that he's a young machine in the making.

There are definitely some things to be worried about if you are seriously thinking about picking up Kevin Smith, but they definitely aren't worth worrying about too much and instead targeting that worry towards one of the many other RB's out there that actually need it.

Edit to add projections: 260 rushes for 1,050 yards and 7 TD's, 50 receptions for 350 yards

 
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I hope this kid is the real deal. I just traded for him in a PPR dynasty league.

I gave: Portis, Warner, Sidney Rice, 2nd in 2010

I got: K.Smith, McCoy, Hixon, 1st in 2010

My only concern with him was the rumors (or maybe it was a fact) that the Lions were looking at Moreno on their draft board. But I agree, he has little competition, and will likely have a rookie QB running that offense. Most rookies QBs (save maybe Marino, Manning, and to a much lesser extent, Ryan) don't lead passing happy offenses. They run the ball to help the QB, and minimize TOs. I think/hope K Smith ends up being a 1st round RB that most drafted in the late 2nd or 3rd. It happens every year with a hand full of RBs, hopefully it happens to him this year.

Only negative points are the Lions have the 2nd hardest SOS vs the run, and could very well be down in every game going into the 4th quarter. Then again, that could also lead to a lot of dump offs to stop the clock for Smith. :IBTL:

 
I hope this kid is the real deal. I just traded for him in a PPR dynasty league. I gave: Portis, Warner, Sidney Rice, 2nd in 2010I got: K.Smith, McCoy, Hixon, 1st in 2010My only concern with him was the rumors (or maybe it was a fact) that the Lions were looking at Moreno on their draft board. But I agree, he has little competition, and will likely have a rookie QB running that offense. Most rookies QBs (save maybe Marino, Manning, and to a much lesser extent, Ryan) don't lead passing happy offenses. They run the ball to help the QB, and minimize TOs. I think/hope K Smith ends up being a 1st round RB that most drafted in the late 2nd or 3rd. It happens every year with a hand full of RBs, hopefully it happens to him this year.Only negative points are the Lions have the 2nd hardest SOS vs the run, and could very well be down in every game going into the 4th quarter. Then again, that could also lead to a lot of dump offs to stop the clock for Smith. :lmao:
So did you have no shot at winning the league this year or what? Smith and McCoy are a nice little package, but the Portis/Warner combo could have had you well on your way towards a championship THIS year instead of waiting for the young'ns to blossom. You'll be loving it in like two years from now though, I'm sure! :IBTL:
 
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After watching his college career at UCF and second half of his rookie season, I'm convinced that Kevin Smith is under the radar to most fantasy footballers.
In four real drafts so far this year he has yet to make it out of the 3rd round.
 
After watching his college career at UCF and second half of his rookie season, I'm convinced that Kevin Smith is under the radar to most fantasy footballers.
In four real drafts so far this year he has yet to make it out of the 3rd round.
I was just going to post the same thing. Don't expect to draft this dude as your number 3 RB unless you go RB-RB-RB in your first three rounds.
 
He was remarkably consistent last season. I'll take that. I don't see RBBC coming. Morris is only depth. They had none last year.

That said, the Lions were so far behind in so many games that there was a ton of running room.

 
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Word on the Internet streets is that Lions rookie RB Aaron Brown is going to have a tough time making the team, never mind being a threat to cut into Smith's carries. Not that there was really anyone concerned with this in the first place, but I thought it was worth noting so... yeah. There's that!

 
also i would like to point out that the lions did add LG/LT daniel loper from the titans this year. he was a backup for his years out there but the word from the titans was that was because they had one of the best LGs in the league and he is not really athletic enough to handle the speed rush add in the fact they play mario williams and dwight freeney that would have been a huge problem.

at 6'6 320 he is a mamoth man who was a backup at LT but will probably be starting for us at LG. we did add depth and a starter along the line and pettigrew will help out with clearing holes and offsetting some of backus's athletic inadequacies against the speed rush guys. it will probably be a rough year again but the lions offense should be fun to watch.

kevin smith will make a bigger impact as well because marinelli was trying to turn the lions into the over the hill gang and that failed miserably. my point being was that smith did not get any real amount of carries until about week 5. we were out of alot of games and he still racked up rather impressive #s. my prediction 290/ 1100 / 10 TDs, 40 rec/ 260 / 3 TDs. a little optimistic yes but not out of the question. with better talent and a defense that should be good enough to not give up 21 in the first will help greatly.

 
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.

250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.

 
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.

250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
The last eight games of last season he averaged 21 carries. They lost all of those games. I would bet against them going winless again, and don't think he will have a problem getting his touches. Since they hit rock bottom, the Lion's and Kevin Smith have no where to go but up.
 
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:rolleyes: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
 
AllVolUT said:
Thurman said:
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:moneybag: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
I'm not a fan. I think the Lions have the worst OL in the league and bad QB's. This will be a bad, bad offense. There's been many guys who finish a year strong and come back the next year and don't do much. I think he'll be one of those guys. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
 
AllVolUT said:
Thurman said:
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:unsure: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
I'm not a fan. I think the Lions have the worst OL in the league and bad QB's. This will be a bad, bad offense. There's been many guys who finish a year strong and come back the next year and don't do much. I think he'll be one of those guys. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
It's not going to be as bad as last year. They've added a few pieces to the offensive line (nothing mind-blowing, mind you) and like I posted before, Brandon Pettigrew is going to allow them to run Smith around the edge on the perimeters instead of getting clogged up in the middle so much.And while they did lose all 16 games last year, their offense really wasn't THAT bad. They did have some decent moments of which their defense promptly gave right back.
 
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AllVolUT said:
Thurman said:
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.

250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:goodposting: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
I'm not a fan. I think the Lions have the worst OL in the league and bad QB's. This will be a bad, bad offense. There's been many guys who finish a year strong and come back the next year and don't do much. I think he'll be one of those guys. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
This is my biggest fear as well. Players like Anthony Thomas, Kevan Barlow, etc, etc who rip through the second part of the season because they have fresh legs are always overvalued the next year. That being said, the two I mentioned were first round killers the next year while Smith can be had in the 3rd. He's an acceptable risk at that point IMO.
 
AllVolUT said:
Thurman said:
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.

250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:confused: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
I'm not a fan. I think the Lions have the worst OL in the league and bad QB's. This will be a bad, bad offense. There's been many guys who finish a year strong and come back the next year and don't do much. I think he'll be one of those guys. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
This is my biggest fear as well. Players like Anthony Thomas, Kevan Barlow, etc, etc who rip through the second part of the season because they have fresh legs are always overvalued the next year. That being said, the two I mentioned were first round killers the next year while Smith can be had in the 3rd. He's an acceptable risk at that point IMO.
Smith was more effective running the ball the 1st half of the year by almost a full ypc...... 4.78 through the 1st 8 games and 3.86 through the last 8. The only reason that Smith did not get more carries early on was because Coach Rod LOVES vets and even if a Rookie is better he has to EARN playing time....Coach Rod proved to be the worst Head Coach in history....Smith will get his carries starting week one and is a steal in the third round....
 
AllVolUT said:
Thurman said:
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.

250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:thumbup: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
I'm not a fan. I think the Lions have the worst OL in the league and bad QB's. This will be a bad, bad offense. There's been many guys who finish a year strong and come back the next year and don't do much. I think he'll be one of those guys. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
This is my biggest fear as well. Players like Anthony Thomas, Kevan Barlow, etc, etc who rip through the second part of the season because they have fresh legs are always overvalued the next year. That being said, the two I mentioned were first round killers the next year while Smith can be had in the 3rd. He's an acceptable risk at that point IMO.
Smith was more effective running the ball the 1st half of the year by almost a full ypc...... 4.78 through the 1st 8 games and 3.86 through the last 8. The only reason that Smith did not get more carries early on was because Coach Rod LOVES vets and even if a Rookie is better he has to EARN playing time....Coach Rod proved to be the worst Head Coach in history....Smith will get his carries starting week one and is a steal in the third round....
You're preaching to the choir here. If he's there with my 3.2 pick that I acquired in my main league (1 keeper), I'm taking him. I'm just saying that I'll be a little concerned. ;)
 
I like Smith this year. While I'm (naturally) not all that excited about Detroit (although I am a fan :hey: ), I think that he should exceed his production from last year if he remains healthy. He doesn't have much competition for the football which is a plus as well. I think that if he stays healthy his numbers from last year will be a pretty solid floor and 1500 total yards is not out of the question. While I don't expect K. Smith to be a world beater. I think that he will be solid.

His presence in the 3-5th rounds along with other backs like: T. Jones, R. Grant, K. Moreno, L. Johnson, etc. make me think that drafting top WRs in 1st and 2nd rounds of a redraft is a very workable strategy this year.

 
AllVolUT said:
Thurman said:
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.

250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:confused: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
I'm not a fan. I think the Lions have the worst OL in the league and bad QB's. This will be a bad, bad offense. There's been many guys who finish a year strong and come back the next year and don't do much. I think he'll be one of those guys. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
It's not going to be as bad as last year.

They've added a few pieces to the offensive line (nothing mind-blowing, mind you) and like I posted before, Brandon Pettigrew is going to allow them to run Smith around the edge on the perimeters instead of getting clogged up in the middle so much.And while they did lose all 16 games last year, their offense really wasn't THAT bad. They did have some decent moments of which their defense promptly gave right back.
How could it be? They win 1 game it's better than last year. I think the question needs to be asked is, how many games will the Lions be playing from behind in the second half? The garbage yards late in a game over the course of a season can be 10-15 spots on the year end rankings of RB's. LT, Priest, LJ and Alexander don't set TD records by playing from behind in the second halves of most games...
 
TheFanatic said:
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.

250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:goodposting: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
I'm not a fan. I think the Lions have the worst OL in the league and bad QB's. This will be a bad, bad offense. There's been many guys who finish a year strong and come back the next year and don't do much. I think he'll be one of those guys. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
It's not going to be as bad as last year.

They've added a few pieces to the offensive line (nothing mind-blowing, mind you) and like I posted before, Brandon Pettigrew is going to allow them to run Smith around the edge on the perimeters instead of getting clogged up in the middle so much.And while they did lose all 16 games last year, their offense really wasn't THAT bad. They did have some decent moments of which their defense promptly gave right back.
How could it be? They win 1 game it's better than last year. I think the question needs to be asked is, how many games will the Lions be playing from behind in the second half? The garbage yards late in a game over the course of a season can be 10-15 spots on the year end rankings of RB's. LT, Priest, LJ and Alexander don't set TD records by playing from behind in the second halves of most games...
I'll go out on a limb and say Detroit was playing from behind EVERY game last year. Last season is Smith's floor. I'm in no way saying he's going to set any records, but he will get more carries, more yards, and more FF points this year than last year unless he is completely kept away from the endzone. Barring injury as usual.
 
I like Smith this year. While I'm (naturally) not all that excited about Detroit (although I am a fan :excited: ), I think that he should exceed his production from last year if he remains healthy. He doesn't have much competition for the football which is a plus as well. I think that if he stays healthy his numbers from last year will be a pretty solid floor and 1500 total yards is not out of the question. While I don't expect K. Smith to be a world beater. I think that he will be solid. His presence in the 3-5th rounds along with other backs like: T. Jones, R. Grant, K. Moreno, L. Johnson, etc. make me think that drafting top WRs in 1st and 2nd rounds of a redraft is a very workable strategy this year.
I really agree with the last paragraph above. I think that the increase in ppr leagues, the increased attention to early round WRs, and the fact that there seem to be relatively few super stud RBs is a dynamic that supports more RB value this year in drafts than previous years.Kevin Smith's team was terrible in 08 and may be again this year. His OL was terrible in 09 and may not be much better this year. Still he had ample opportunity to finish as RB18 in FBG scoring and added 39 receptions last year. He averaged 4.1 ypc which is decent. As others have said he got more involved as the year went on and has a clear path to being the bell-cow RB this season. He seems to present solid value to drafters in 09. His current ADP is 29 overall and RB15 and I think that he has a great chance to outperform his ADP.A quick comparison of 08 stats with Matt Forte.....Matt Forte 316 carries 1238 yds 3.9 ypc 63 catches 477 yds 12 TDs RB4 FBG ScoringKevin Smith 239 carries 975 yds 4.1 ypc 39 catches 286 yds 8 TDs RB18 FBG ScoringFirst half of 08Matt Forte 169 carries 641 yds 3.8 ypc 30 catches 282 yds 9.4 ypc 6 TDs Kevin Smith 70 carries 305 yds 4.4 ypc 24 catches 162 yds 6.8 ypc 4 TDs Second half of 08Matt Forte 147 carries 597 yds 4.1 ypc 34 catches 195 yds 5.7 ypc 6 TDs Kevin Smith 169 carries 670 yds 4.0 ypc 15 catches 124 yds 8.3 ypc 4 TDsLooks fairly close except Forte got more opportunities early, but not in the last half. He did have more receptions, but Forte is going so much earlier in 09 drafts.Kevin Smith 320 carries 1280 yds 4.0 ypc 40 catches 360 yds 9.0 ypc and 10 TDs
 
It's tough to predict a breakout season for Smith with such a bad (expected) QB and defense. I think the run blocking will be better, but how much is that really saying? The Lions had arguably the worst o line in the game last season. He is the likely workhorse and that does count for something, but it's hard to project higher than a RB2 type season. It's not like this kid was an all-world talent coming out of school, he's good but not special imho, not one that can thrive amongst garbage. His floor's pretty high due in large part to the lack of competition but his celing's quite low. I'd feel comfortable with him as a RB2, probably somewhere near the 3/4 elbow in most standard 12 team leagues.

 
I like Smith this year. While I'm (naturally) not all that excited about Detroit (although I am a fan :loco: ), I think that he should exceed his production from last year if he remains healthy. He doesn't have much competition for the football which is a plus as well. I think that if he stays healthy his numbers from last year will be a pretty solid floor and 1500 total yards is not out of the question. While I don't expect K. Smith to be a world beater. I think that he will be solid.

His presence in the 3-5th rounds along with other backs like: T. Jones, R. Grant, K. Moreno, L. Johnson, etc. make me think that drafting top WRs in 1st and 2nd rounds of a redraft is a very workable strategy this year.
I really agree with the last paragraph above. I think that the increase in ppr leagues, the increased attention to early round WRs, and the fact that there seem to be relatively few super stud RBs is a dynamic that supports more RB value this year in drafts than previous years.Kevin Smith's team was terrible in 08 and may be again this year. His OL was terrible in 09 and may not be much better this year. Still he had ample opportunity to finish as RB18 in FBG scoring and added 39 receptions last year. He averaged 4.1 ypc which is decent. As others have said he got more involved as the year went on and has a clear path to being the bell-cow RB this season. He seems to present solid value to drafters in 09. His current ADP is 29 overall and RB15 and I think that he has a great chance to outperform his ADP.

A quick comparison of 08 stats with Matt Forte.....

Matt Forte 316 carries 1238 yds 3.9 ypc 63 catches 477 yds 12 TDs RB4 FBG Scoring

Kevin Smith 239 carries 975 yds 4.1 ypc 39 catches 286 yds 8 TDs RB18 FBG Scoring

First half of 08

Matt Forte 169 carries 641 yds 3.8 ypc 30 catches 282 yds 9.4 ypc 6 TDs

Kevin Smith 70 carries 305 yds 4.4 ypc 24 catches 162 yds 6.8 ypc 4 TDs

Second half of 08

Matt Forte 147 carries 597 yds 4.1 ypc 34 catches 195 yds 5.7 ypc 6 TDs

Kevin Smith 169 carries 670 yds 4.0 ypc 15 catches 124 yds 8.3 ypc 4 TDs

Looks fairly close except Forte got more opportunities early, but not in the last half. He did have more receptions, but Forte is going so much earlier in 09 drafts.

Kevin Smith 320 carries 1280 yds 4.0 ypc 40 catches 360 yds 9.0 ypc and 10 TDs
:goodposting: :rant:

 
Not one post has mentioned injuries or injury risk.

That alone coupled with ~300 touches makes him a great pick.

Not to mention, he's simply not talked about.

Hell, there's only 28 posts in this thread.

 
I think we should temper our expectations for Smith. He has decent talent and good opportunity, but the Lions are the worst team in history. I just can't see them being on the field long enough for him to put up very good numbers.

250-950-5 rushing 28-204-0 receiving.
:football: In comparison to his '08 campaign, you're expecting more carries, yet less rushing yards, less TDs, less catches, and less receiving yards. What gives?
I'm not a fan. I think the Lions have the worst OL in the league and bad QB's. This will be a bad, bad offense. There's been many guys who finish a year strong and come back the next year and don't do much. I think he'll be one of those guys. But who knows, I've been wrong before.
It's not going to be as bad as last year.

They've added a few pieces to the offensive line (nothing mind-blowing, mind you) and like I posted before, Brandon Pettigrew is going to allow them to run Smith around the edge on the perimeters instead of getting clogged up in the middle so much.And while they did lose all 16 games last year, their offense really wasn't THAT bad. They did have some decent moments of which their defense promptly gave right back.
How could it be? They win 1 game it's better than last year. I think the question needs to be asked is, how many games will the Lions be playing from behind in the second half? The garbage yards late in a game over the course of a season can be 10-15 spots on the year end rankings of RB's. LT, Priest, LJ and Alexander don't set TD records by playing from behind in the second halves of most games...
Maybe what you are not getting is that last year the Lions were so bad and so far behind that the defenses completely let off the gas. Second and third stringers were in there playing prevent defense. A LOT.
 
Maybe what you are not getting is that last year the Lions were so bad and so far behind that the defenses completely let off the gas. Second and third stringers were in there playing prevent defense. A LOT.
That's an interesting point. Anyone have a breakdown of how KS did in the 4th quarters of games last year?
 
Maybe what you are not getting is that last year the Lions were so bad and so far behind that the defenses completely let off the gas. Second and third stringers were in there playing prevent defense. A LOT.
That's an interesting point. Anyone have a breakdown of how KS did in the 4th quarters of games last year?
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1st qtr		66	278	4.2	0	13	7	75	10.7	0	35.3	2nd qtr		77	313	4.1	3	14	9	69	7.7	0	56.2	3rd qtr		52	207	4.0	2	9	8	47	5.9	0	37.4	4th/OT		40	175	4.4	3	18	15	95	6.3	0	45.0
Guess that statement that he got his because of 2nd/3rd stringers has no merit since he had more carries in 1st/2nd qtrs than 3rd/4th and performed almost identically throughout the entire game.ETA---This is one of the best parts of Kevin Smith's split stats:
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He is going to finish either in the top12 or just outside of it 13-15. Here is a quick note. He will more than likely start off slow as well. His first five are brutal. If you can get him via a trade after that you should be looking at again a very good second half surge.

 
yeah his beginning schedule does him no favors, but he will still perform well but will probably have a hard time finding the endzone because of the stout defenses. still i like him alot because as the team improves on just a consistency basis his chances to not run against stacked boxes increases and so will his production.

last years lions team sucked in that they would be the good pro team that deserves to be in the NFL then either the defense stopped that, or they forgot what they did to get down the field. conisitency will be the biggest thing for the lions this year. last year there was no surprise in the offense, and the defense was woefully undermanned. this year the offense will pick up with pettigrew a new wrinkle gets added and i really think smith's receiving numbers will increase which will help his rushing numbers as well. hopefully we can get in a solid base formation of types and keep teams off balance.

summary last year sucked this year things get better. you can get smith for cheap and he will produce for you. the rest of the team needs to pick up for him to be a top 7 guy, but he can do it. in the meantime be happy with one of the steals fo the draft in the 3rd round.

 
I think Smith could be one of the true value gems of 2009. Couple of points to make...

1) Can a situation get any worse than it was for the Lions in 2008? There are situations that have been on par (I don't think there is much difference between 0-16 & 2-14...you suck still the same).

2) The QB situation no matter how you slice it will be better. Culpepper (in shape)/Stafford > Kitna/Orlovsky/Culpepper (fat).

3) Being a fan of a team that was expected to very little in 2008 (Falcons)...I have to admit, there is something to the notion that teams won't geek up for you say they would for the Patriots/Steelers.

4) A new coaching staff (and Schwartz seemingly has done a solid job thus far on changing the culture) can do wonders for improving a franchises scrappiness that first year.

5) As noted above, Smith really emerged in the second half of 2008 as his production was on par with Forte's.

6) Last season, the Lions passed on 61.5% of their offensive plays. I suspect Schwartz will be motivated to get that number closer to 54-55%, which over 913 offensive plays (their 2008 #) could mean an increase of 60-70 rushes over the course of the season. Lest we not also consider that the Lions could increase their # of offensive plays in 2009 too.

Overall, I think Smith is going to be the workhorse in Detroit and I could see him definitely approaching the 325 carry mark with 40 receptions. In fact, it would not be entirely surprising to see him put up the type of season Matt Forte did last year. Now that is is firmly entrenched as Detroit's RB1, with nobody all that exciting as a change of pace option, Smith could frequently find himself on the field in 3rd down situations (although Aaron Brown has looked good). In addition, if I'm projecting how I'm looking at the Lions after the 2009 season, I think they'll be able to say:

1) Got our franchise QB - will need for him to make the leap in 2010

2) Got our stud muffin of an WR1

3) Got our workhorse, multi-dimensional RB

...now we need to continue to make improvement along the lines and secondary, but there's hope now.

Prediction: 319 Carries, 1339 Rushing Yards, 9 TD's 42 Receptions 286 Receiving Yards 1 TD

 
Worth another look since Forte's thread has also been bumped.

A quick comparison of 08 stats with Matt Forte.....Matt Forte 316 carries 1238 yds 3.9 ypc 63 catches 477 yds 12 TDs RB4 FBG ScoringKevin Smith 239 carries 975 yds 4.1 ypc 39 catches 286 yds 8 TDs RB18 FBG ScoringFirst half of 08Matt Forte 169 carries 641 yds 3.8 ypc 30 catches 282 yds 9.4 ypc 6 TDs Kevin Smith 70 carries 305 yds 4.4 ypc 24 catches 162 yds 6.8 ypc 4 TDs Second half of 08Matt Forte 147 carries 597 yds 4.1 ypc 34 catches 195 yds 5.7 ypc 6 TDs Kevin Smith 169 carries 670 yds 4.0 ypc 15 catches 124 yds 8.3 ypc 4 TDs
Forte put up his numbers on a "bad" offense last year - I don't think he is more likely to repeat that performance than Smith is this year (if that makes sense).
 
He is going to finish either in the top12 or just outside of it 13-15.
So.......you're predicting that he'll finish somewhere between 1 and 15. Way to go out on a limb.
This is a player ive been debating at 30 or 31 since i pick back to back. He would be my second rb or third since im going rb at 10 or 11. A johnson hopefully at 11. keep fingers crossed.
Sounds like a good plan. Can you keep us posted on how you do in that league for the rest of the season? :lmao:
 
He is going to finish either in the top12 or just outside of it 13-15.
So.......you're predicting that he'll finish somewhere between 1 and 15. Way to go out on a limb.
This is a player ive been debating at 30 or 31 since i pick back to back. He would be my second rb or third since im going rb at 10 or 11. A johnson hopefully at 11. keep fingers crossed.
Sounds like a good plan. Can you keep us posted on how you do in that league for the rest of the season? :goodposting:
yeah but only if your not busting my chops. haha
 
I really think K. Smith is an interesting prospect going forward. He has proven that he can carry the load, and this should be a breakout year for him. I think Culpepper can keep defenses honest with Calvin Johnson. I just wish the Offensive line was better.

 
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He is going to finish either in the top12 or just outside of it 13-15.
So.......you're predicting that he'll finish somewhere between 1 and 15. Way to go out on a limb.
This is a player ive been debating at 30 or 31 since i pick back to back. He would be my second rb or third since im going rb at 10 or 11. A johnson hopefully at 11. keep fingers crossed.
Sounds like a good plan. Can you keep us posted on how you do in that league for the rest of the season? :shrug:
:stirspot: for sure; do you have a twitter feed for your team?
 
I predict a better season for Smith too.

here is my rationale:

1) I really like his work ethic. when he was yanked early in the season due to subpar performance he didnt whine like a little sissy. he worked harder and got the starting job back.

2) he was on a TERRIBLE team last year. I dont think it is actually possible for the team to get worse. even if the team goes 4-12 or 3-13, that means three or four wins. this will mean 3 or 4 additional games where he gets garbage carries to kill the clock at the end of the game when the defense is tired.

based on this alone you can add 5-10% to his stats from last year.

3) add a quality run blocking TE to the mix.

4) the biggest problem in Detroit was the defense was incredibly horrible. Their pass game was subpar as well, but we have a situation where Culpepper lost a lot of weight this year, and should be a better player than he was last year. If Stafford wins the starting Job, we have to assume he is better than the improved Culpepper. Overall we have to assume the offense will be better than it was last year. I'm projecting at least 2 more TD's as compared to last year for Smith

All of the above points make sense, and we'd be dumb to deny it. Going with this logic, I think we have to project an improvement in his stats, and I think you can draft him as a RB2 with confidence and be very happy with his production.

 
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He is going to finish either in the top12 or just outside of it 13-15.
So.......you're predicting that he'll finish somewhere between 1 and 15. Way to go out on a limb.
This is a player ive been debating at 30 or 31 since i pick back to back. He would be my second rb or third since im going rb at 10 or 11. A johnson hopefully at 11. keep fingers crossed.
Sounds like a good plan. Can you keep us posted on how you do in that league for the rest of the season? :boxing:
:goodposting: for sure; do you have a twitter feed for your team?
Love the twitter reference. Can I use this in the future? Do I need to site you as the source?
 

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