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Player Spotlight: Maurice Jones-Drew (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Maurice Jones-Drew Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Stud Stud Stud Stud Stud

#2 IMO rb right now

With the additions for oline in the offseason and witht he team parting different ways with Freddy T I think MJD is in for a big year

300 carries

1350 yards

60 catches

500 yards

18 td's

 
280 carries

1175 yards rushing

12 TDs rushing

65 receptions

585 yards receiving

3 TDs receiving

Those numbers would have been good for RB3 last season.

 
MJD elevates to #2 in my RB rankings. He's a good runner, great receiver, and is a goalline stud. No real glaring weaknesses. He had a great year despite the JAX OL being in shambles. JAX bringing in Holt helps out the passing game, even though Holt is just a shell of his former self. Fred Taylor leaving gives more carries to MJD, but I don't see JAX giving him a ton of work....they will have someone in spelling MJD on occasion.

275 car, 1275 yds rushing, 12 TD

55 rec, 500 yds rec, 3 TD

 
MJD has been waiting in the wings for 3 years now. He has been extremely productive in limited work and his game shows no weaknesses, plus his strengths are short yardage and pass catching, which should insure that as a starter he'll be uber-consistent.

His O-line has been greatly upgraded and Holt was added to at least give some threat of a passing game, also the Jags play in a pretty poor run stuffing division(especially if the Titans drop off because of Haynesworth) and they play the long awful NFC West.

MJD is my #1 overall pick regardless of league. Dynasty? Redraft? PPR? Doesn't matter MJD is #1.

I feel like these projections are conservative, I could see him being far more productive than this, especially the rushing numbers.

250 carries, 1,150 yards and 12 rushing TD's.

70 catches, 650 yards and 3 receiving TD's.

1,800 total yards and 15 total TD's.

 
Basically MJD should put up the same numbers in terms of receiving yards and total touchdowns. The key to how good he'll be this season comes down to how many more rushing yards he'll get this season compared to years past. It could be 200-300 more. Maybe it could be as much as 500 more.

It's weird. You can't really say that he's proven because he's always been in a committee but at the same token you can't say he's unproven because of his past production. I have to admit it's hard to stomach using a top 3 pick on a running back who's never rushed for 1000 yards in a season. However if he's able to play the way he did at the end of 08 for all of this season he should be the best running back in fantasy football.

 
I, for one, am being cautious with MJD. I probably won't draft him since I will need a top 3 pick to get him. He has never carried the ball more then 174 times in a season. He was inconsistent last year, probably due to being nicked up most of the year. I am not sure he can handle a full load. Kinda reminds me of Barber last year. I don't think he will be a bust, I just don't know that he will live up the the heightened expectations this year.

 
I, for one, am being cautious with MJD. I probably won't draft him since I will need a top 3 pick to get him. He has never carried the ball more then 174 times in a season. He was inconsistent last year, probably due to being nicked up most of the year. I am not sure he can handle a full load. Kinda reminds me of Barber last year. I don't think he will be a bust, I just don't know that he will live up the the heightened expectations this year.
He had 197 rushing attempts last year. I think he will see more this year for sure but it won't be as many as most people think it's going to be. I don't think he won't get too close to 300 rushing attempts this season. Every year he has seen an increase in carries and a decrease in rushing avg. I know last year was tough because the line was in shambles, but it could be a sign. I don't think he can handle a certain amount of carries and still be as effective as he normally is. As you can probably tell, I don't think he has a shot at being the #1 FF RB (maybe in PPR). But if I was up at #2 it would be between MJD and S.Jackson.

 
I, for one, am being cautious with MJD. I probably won't draft him since I will need a top 3 pick to get him. He has never carried the ball more then 174 times in a season. He was inconsistent last year, probably due to being nicked up most of the year. I am not sure he can handle a full load. Kinda reminds me of Barber last year. I don't think he will be a bust, I just don't know that he will live up the the heightened expectations this year.
He had 197 rushing attempts last year. I think he will see more this year for sure but it won't be as many as most people think it's going to be. I don't think he won't get too close to 300 rushing attempts this season. Every year he has seen an increase in carries and a decrease in rushing avg. I know last year was tough because the line was in shambles, but it could be a sign. I don't think he can handle a certain amount of carries and still be as effective as he normally is. As you can probably tell, I don't think he has a shot at being the #1 FF RB (maybe in PPR). But if I was up at #2 it would be between MJD and S.Jackson.
Whoops. The stat I was looking at was wrong. 197 appears to be correct.
 
I, for one, am being cautious with MJD. I probably won't draft him since I will need a top 3 pick to get him. He has never carried the ball more then 174 times in a season. He was inconsistent last year, probably due to being nicked up most of the year. I am not sure he can handle a full load. Kinda reminds me of Barber last year. I don't think he will be a bust, I just don't know that he will live up the the heightened expectations this year.
I agree...I think MJD is going to do this season, what Barber did last season, i.e., a RB given the full-time starting role, who struggles to fill the void..the lack of carries bothers me..the guy produces at a high level, but I'm just not so sure he's going to get more than 230-240 carries this season..not sure he can handle a 300+ carry workload..like you said, it's a leap of faith to think a guy who has never had more than 197 carries in a season will suddenly carry the ball 300 or more times.. :mellow: his decreasing ypc avg bothers me..David Garrard bothers me..Torry Holt is 97 years old and is only a marginal upgrade over the other WR's they've had..I mean, what does Holt bring to the table, 55-60 recs? this isn't the pass-happy Rams offense..

so I'm not sold on the notion that Holt is going to free up running lanes for MJD.I doubt Holt scares any defense, he's too old and too slow..

240/960/11/

60rec/546/2

 
I, for one, am being cautious with MJD. I probably won't draft him since I will need a top 3 pick to get him. He has never carried the ball more then 174 times in a season. He was inconsistent last year, probably due to being nicked up most of the year. I am not sure he can handle a full load. Kinda reminds me of Barber last year. I don't think he will be a bust, I just don't know that he will live up the the heightened expectations this year.
I agree...I think MJD is going to do this season, what Barber did last season, i.e., a RB given the full-time starting role, who struggles to fill the void..the lack of carries bothers me..the guy produces at a high level, but I'm just not so sure he's going to get more than 230-240 carries this season..not sure he can handle a 300+ carry workload..like you said, it's a leap of faith to think a guy who has never had more than 197 carries in a season will suddenly carry the ball 300 or more times.. :shrug: his decreasing ypc avg bothers me..David Garrard bothers me..Torry Holt is 97 years old and is only a marginal upgrade over the other WR's they've had..I mean, what does Holt bring to the table, 55-60 recs? this isn't the pass-happy Rams offense..

so I'm not sold on the notion that Holt is going to free up running lanes for MJD.I doubt Holt scares any defense, he's too old and too slow..

240/960/11/

60rec/546/2
3600 yards and 15 TD's on a team with those WR's bothers you? On a run first team? Seems pretty solid to me... :thumbup: BTW, lots of MJD love in here. I actually think this projection is closer to reality than most. I just don't get the Garrard shot. Also, do you really think that they would let him get that close to 1K and not make sure he got over the 1K mark by season's end? This is the team that force fed the ball to Fred to get him to a pro bowl...

 
I have the number one pick in an upcoming draft and I am racking my brains over whether to take AP or MJD. It's a PPR league, but Peterson still just takes the cake for me because he is a more proven commodity.

As for MJD, he is my number two RB and I have full confidence in him.

My projections:

252 rushes, 1,190 yards, 10 rushing TDs; 59 rec, 740 yards, 5 TDs

 
In 2007, the Jags had a league high 523 rushing attempts. Due to a decimated OL and more porous defense in 2008, they only ran the ball 423 times. Last year, the Jags decided to hire Gregg Williams as DC. Although he had a history of top performing defenses, Jacksonville didn't have the right personnel to run his scheme. Lo and behold, Jacksonville hired Mel Tucker as the new defensive coordinator. However, I expect JDR to have a large hand on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, I expect the defense to be better than last year. Additionally, the Jags spent their two first rounders on the OL and also brought in Tra Thomas. Combining these factors and a running back friendly schedule, I believe the Jags will approach ~490-500 attempts.

Of these 490 attempts, I would expect Garrard to see his about 65 carries this year - a slight downtick from last year, due to the revamped line. I think this might be Chauncey Washington's audition, so 40 carries might be the audition the team needs to see. I would expect Jennings to approach 75 or so - strictly a best guess, as I believe he might surprise a little bit. That leaves Greg Jones and MJD. Greg Jones carried the ball 151 times in '05, missed '06, 42 attempts in '07, and a baffling 2 carries last year. I would expect somewhere in the vicinity of ~50.

That would leave MJD 260 carries, more than I feel comfortable giving him, but thats what my early projections suggest. With a line that was missing 60% of its starts for a large chunk of the season, MJD averaged 4.2 a clip. I would expect that number to approach 4.4

260 attempts, 1144 yards, 12 TDs

50 catches, 475 yards, 2 TDs

 
In PPR this year, Maurice Jones-Drew has the skills, situation, and opportunity to put up stats that might flat out win your league for you, to have a Shaun Alexander - type career year. I take those bets when they come along, even if it costs a number one pick.

240 -- 1200 -- 13

50 -- 500 - 4

 
Stud Stud Stud Stud Stud#2 IMO rb right nowWith the additions for oline in the offseason and witht he team parting different ways with Freddy T I think MJD is in for a big year300 carries1350 yards60 catches500 yards18 td's
I agree MJD is a stud. I will be cautious this year with MJD until I read, see or hear how R. Jennings makes out in training camp. If he does well and makes the team I could imagine him taking a lot of carries by mid season to keep MJD fresh. I don't believe MJD is suited to taking on a full time load at RB for a full season. But man if he does......
 
AllVolUT said:
260 attempts, 1144 yards, 12 TDs

50 catches, 475 yards, 2 TDs
I like the projections here. I see this as much more realistic than 2K and 20 TD's. I think that carry total is right in the sweetspot of 250-270 carries that I predict for the guy. But I'm wondering about the number you predict for Greg Jones you list below:
AllVolUT said:
Greg Jones carried the ball 151 times in '05, missed '06, 42 attempts in '07, and a baffling 2 carries last year. I would expect somewhere in the vicinity of ~50.
2005 - 151 carries (3.8 YPC BTW)2006 - 0 carries due to injury

2007 - 42 carries (2.8 YPC)

2008 - 2 carries (6.5 YPC but too small a sample size to indicate anything)

2009 prediction of 50 carries?

Using that historical data to predict 50 carries seems a bit off to me. He very well could get 50 but I don't think his history at RB is at all predictive or indicative of that...

 
AllVolUT said:
260 attempts, 1144 yards, 12 TDs

50 catches, 475 yards, 2 TDs
I like the projections here. I see this as much more realistic than 2K and 20 TD's. I think that carry total is right in the sweetspot of 250-270 carries that I predict for the guy. But I'm wondering about the number you predict for Greg Jones you list below:
AllVolUT said:
Greg Jones carried the ball 151 times in '05, missed '06, 42 attempts in '07, and a baffling 2 carries last year. I would expect somewhere in the vicinity of ~50.
2005 - 151 carries (3.8 YPC BTW)2006 - 0 carries due to injury

2007 - 42 carries (2.8 YPC)

2008 - 2 carries (6.5 YPC but too small a sample size to indicate anything)

2009 prediction of 50 carries?

Using that historical data to predict 50 carries seems a bit off to me. He very well could get 50 but I don't think his history at RB is at all predictive or indicative of that...
I don't think he was using just historical data to predict the 50 carries. You also have to take into account the loss of Taylor and how his carries will be distributed in 2009 (not all will go to MJD, a portion will go to the other backs).
 
AllVolUT said:
260 attempts, 1144 yards, 12 TDs

50 catches, 475 yards, 2 TDs
I like the projections here. I see this as much more realistic than 2K and 20 TD's. I think that carry total is right in the sweetspot of 250-270 carries that I predict for the guy. But I'm wondering about the number you predict for Greg Jones you list below:
AllVolUT said:
Greg Jones carried the ball 151 times in '05, missed '06, 42 attempts in '07, and a baffling 2 carries last year. I would expect somewhere in the vicinity of ~50.
2005 - 151 carries (3.8 YPC BTW)2006 - 0 carries due to injury

2007 - 42 carries (2.8 YPC)

2008 - 2 carries (6.5 YPC but too small a sample size to indicate anything)

2009 prediction of 50 carries?

Using that historical data to predict 50 carries seems a bit off to me. He very well could get 50 but I don't think his history at RB is at all predictive or indicative of that...
I don't think he was using just historical data to predict the 50 carries. You also have to take into account the loss of Taylor and how his carries will be distributed in 2009 (not all will go to MJD, a portion will go to the other backs).
That is a much more sound argument than bringing up GJ's carries from the past. And I agree, there are more carries to go around. We can't assume that MJD is going to go from a career high of something like 190 to 350. And GJ is seemingly going to be on the roster come the start of the season. I was just wondering why bring up the carries of the past at all to justify the number of 50. That's all...
 
I'm wondering if most of you are ranking him so high in PPR only or non-PPR as well

 
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I really love MJD and think this year he could be the #1 overall RB in ppr leagues this year. I would still draft Peterson ahead of him, but the potential is obviously there.

Last 3 years of stats for MJD:

Season Att Yds TD FmL Rec Yds TD

2008: 197 824 12 3 62 565 2

2007: 167 768 9 2 40 407

2006: 166 941 13 1 46 436 2

Last 3 years totals for Jacksonville as a team rushing and for RBs receiving:

Season Att Yds TD FmL Rec Yds TD

2008: 426 1774 17 X 95 828 4

2007: 522 2391 18 X 61 568 2

2006: 513 2541 23 X 71 690 3

Now, I don't think you can just go off the total numbers obviously, but if you do look at them, you can get an idea of the total numbers in the Jacksonville offense.

Now average yds per rush:

2008: MJD: 4.18 Team: 4.16

2007: MJD: 4.60 Team: 4.58

2006: MJD: 5.67 Team: 4.95

2006 seems like a weird year for the yds per rush for both MJD and the team. I will throw that one out for now and just look at the last 2 years. MJD has had less than half the carries the last 2 years, but his yds per rush is basically the same as the teams. It would seem the more carries he gets, the less yds he gets per rush. I'm not willing to say he will go below 4 yds per rush if he gets over 220 carries, but he did get 30 more carries in 2008 than 2007 and only got 56 more yards, which is the only concern I have for him. I still believe he will get between the 4.2 and 4.6 yds per carry.

So, I will go with MJD and the team getting about 4.4 yards per rush this year. For simplicity sake, we will say they will run the ball as a team 475 times. This may be a tad high. Garrard has improved, and his passing numbers have been going up year to year, plus they played from behind last year, so they had less runs than the previous years. I will assume Garrard has improved enough as well where they will have a good balanced attack.

Out of those 475 runs, we need to figure out how many MJD will have. Obviously, these will all be guesses, so i will go with the players we know won't run a lot first:

Garrard: 75 (73, 50, and 47 the last 3 years and has lost weight and will probably be more mobile).

WRs: 10 (7, 7, and 10 the last 3 years)

That will leave the RBs with 390 carries. We have Greg Jones, Chauncey Washington, and Rashad Jennings.

In 2005, Greg Jones had 151 carries. I do not think that will happen again. Even if he's healthy, I don't see more than 50 carries. I'm going to go with 40 for him. He had 42 in 2007 and 2 last year.

That gives us 350 for MJD and his main back ups. For simplicity sake again, lets Just have Washington and Jennings as the combined #2 RB in Jax. I personally like Jennings to be the #2, but I know most think it will be Washington or Jones. I think it will be a good 2/3, 1/3 split between MJD and his back up.

That gives Washington/Jennings 117 carries

That gives MJD 233 carries.

So, at 4.4 yards/rush that gives MJD 1025 yards.

As for receiving, he has averaged 9.11, 10.17, and 9.48 yds/catch the last 3 years. I think 9.5 sounds like a good average for him. This and his TDs I think will be what makes him the #1 RB this year in ppr leagues.

Jacksonville had a lot of turnover at WR this year. Holt should lead the team in receptions, but MJD should still be 2nd. I think he takes a little jump here and gets 70 catches this year.

At 9.5 yds/rec, that gives him 665 yards.

With the extra receptions, I give him a small bump in receiving TDs to 3.

With the extra carries, I will also give him a bump in rushing TDs to 15.

So, I know it was long, but that brings me to my total stats for MJD as:

Season Att Yds TD FmL Rec Yds TD

2009: 233 1025 15 3 70 665 3

 
Maurice Jones Drew could be the Michael Turner of 09. He has had even more success in a part-time role than Turner had and he should be cut loose as the Jaguars bell-cow RB. I don't know why, but I am having difficulty accepting these projections.

MJ Drew 06 16 gms 166 rushes 941 yds 5.7 ypc 61 targets 46 catches 75.4% 436 yds 15 TDs RB8 non-ppr

MJ Drew 07 15 gms 167 rushes 768 yds 4.6 ypc 55 targets 40 catches 72.7% 407 yds 9 TDs RB13 non-ppr

MJ Drew 08 16 gms 197 rushes 824 yds 4.2 ypc 75 targets 62 catches 82.6% 565 yds 14 TDs RB9 non-ppr

I keep getting stuck on the RBBC data and remain curious as to how he will hold up. Only two games with grater than 20 carries and 9 with under ten carries as a rookie. No games with over 20 carries in 07 and still three with under ten. Last year, he had three games with over 20 and five with single digit rush attempts. He has obviously been kept fresh throughout his career and I think that point has been lost in the previous projection.

There is no doubt that he is an awesome athlete with good speed and is extremely well liked as well. I just think that he will not get the number of carries that are projected by many. I think that the Jaguars will involve others or will run less often than in the past so that MJD is not worn out.

MJ Drew 220 rushes 968 yards 4.4 ypc 70 targets 53 catches 477 yds 9.0 ypc and 12 total TDs

 
AllVolUT said:
260 attempts, 1144 yards, 12 TDs

50 catches, 475 yards, 2 TDs
I like the projections here. I see this as much more realistic than 2K and 20 TD's. I think that carry total is right in the sweetspot of 250-270 carries that I predict for the guy. But I'm wondering about the number you predict for Greg Jones you list below:
AllVolUT said:
Greg Jones carried the ball 151 times in '05, missed '06, 42 attempts in '07, and a baffling 2 carries last year. I would expect somewhere in the vicinity of ~50.
2005 - 151 carries (3.8 YPC BTW)2006 - 0 carries due to injury

2007 - 42 carries (2.8 YPC)

2008 - 2 carries (6.5 YPC but too small a sample size to indicate anything)

2009 prediction of 50 carries?

Using that historical data to predict 50 carries seems a bit off to me. He very well could get 50 but I don't think his history at RB is at all predictive or indicative of that...
I don't think he was using just historical data to predict the 50 carries. You also have to take into account the loss of Taylor and how his carries will be distributed in 2009 (not all will go to MJD, a portion will go to the other backs).
That is a much more sound argument than bringing up GJ's carries from the past. And I agree, there are more carries to go around. We can't assume that MJD is going to go from a career high of something like 190 to 350. And GJ is seemingly going to be on the roster come the start of the season. I was just wondering why bring up the carries of the past at all to justify the number of 50. That's all...
Thanks for clarifying that for me greggorymac - that was more my thinking. I posted GJ's previous history just to illustrate that he has the potential to carry the ball more. So, without Freddy T, I expect GJ to rise back to his '07 total.
 
I've been a guy who had the :whistle: look on his face when discussing MJD as the #2 overall player in FF this year. I recognize that with Fragile Fred no longer part of the equation that the burden of RB production for Jacksonville falls squarely on hs shoulders. But for awhile, I couldn't really get past the fact that he hasn't been THE man at all in Jacksonville. It's not that I don't think he'll produce...but at the #2 overall level? I really question that. However...

The biggest differentiator for RB's isn't necessarily workload, but it's in the way they can generate production. If anything, the Jaguars WR improved only slightly and even that's debatable with the essential swap of Matt Jones for Torry Holt. But the big numbers to look at with Jones-Drew are these...in a RBBC role, he's averaged during his 3 year career:

49 Receptions

503 Receiving Yards

1 TD

Unless you see his role in the Jacksonville passing game diminshing, I think it's safe to assume that he'll be in the 1700 Yards From Scrimmage realm at a minimum. One thing though I could see is a move away from Jones-Drew inside the 5. He's been a deadly producer in the red zone and I don't think they'll bring him off the field all the time. But I could see a Greg Jones/Chauncey Washington/Rashard Jennings emerging as a short yardage weapon to ease the workload increase on MJD.

Plus, with the Jacksonville O-Line back healthy again with the infusion of two highly regarded rookie tackles, I can see this team being able to spring MJD with more frequency than in 2008 when he only averaged 4.2 YPC.

Prediction: 302 Carries, 1389 Rushing Yards, 10 TD's 52 Receptions 464 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.

 
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MJD has the least question marks of any RB. He is a good goal line back, great pass catcher, little competition for touches. Low center of gravitity and a knack for avoiding big hits gives him a good shot at playing 16 games. The Oline is healthy, and they also added some help up front in the draft. The Jaguars have a better WR corps this year than they have had in the past several years. A run first team with a solid defense should give him plenty of opportuntities. All this on top of the fact that he is one of the most talented RB's in the league, and in the prime of his career. He is my favorite to finish as the #1 RB this year, in any format.

260 carries

1225 yards

14 TD's

60 Rec.

570 yards

3 TD's

 
If MJD lasts the whole year he should be the #2RB. The shark move, will be to get his backup(s).

I'm not saying he wont last the year, but he has to show me he can so it.

 
If MJD lasts the whole year he should be the #2RB. The shark move, will be to get his backup(s). I'm not saying he wont last the year, but he has to show me he can so it.
Just who, exactly is his backup? Greg Jones? 6'1" and 254? Pearman 5" 10' and 204 (three inches taller than MJD and 4 pounds lighter). Best case, in my mind, if MJD goes down is a combo of these two...
 
If MJD lasts the whole year he should be the #2RB. The shark move, will be to get his backup(s). I'm not saying he wont last the year, but he has to show me he can so it.
Just who, exactly is his backup? Greg Jones? 6'1" and 254? Pearman 5" 10' and 204 (three inches taller than MJD and 4 pounds lighter). Best case, in my mind, if MJD goes down is a combo of these two...
What about Rashad Jennings?
 
MJD is primed for fantasy elite status this year. All the signs are pointing to a breakout year in the mold of Holmes/Alexander. The scary thing is that IMO MJD is more talented than either for mentioned RBs. Will his team create the same sort of opportunity? I guess we'll see. I think so and as long as MJD plays in all 16 games I see little chance he is anything but the #1 RB in fantasy. MJD can do it all on the field. He runs between the tackles, can beat teams to the perimeter, is $$$ at the GL, he blocks well in pass protection and catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield. Jack is clearly heavily invested in their Oline and thus the running game. I see these type numbers for MJD in 2009:

315 rushes, 1320 yds, 60 receptions, 540 yds, 19 TDs

 
I love the guy, but I am also somewhat cautious in projecting him this season.

His changed role should help him be more consistent and mostly eliminate the complete stinkers he's been prone to at times, but I don't see the new role having a huge impact on his overall numbers.

He's always had a very unique role for a RB, getting both the GL touches and the receptions.

As good as MJD is at the GL, personally, I think the Jags would be smart to try to get Jones or Jennings involved at the GL if they are capable, which I think they can be. For the team, I think MJD can be much more valuable in space b/w the 20's with chances to make big plays. That's a great benefit for the Jags, but extra touches b/w the 20's don't do much for his fantasy value (except make him a bit more consistent).

Between Jones, Jennings, and Washington, there will be a significant impact on the larger role we're expecting of MJD. I'm not sure who or where, but I thinks those guys will get plenty of touches.

My hesitations don't really matter though, I'd still take him in the top 3. The upside is too great. Combining a bit more consistency with the big game ability he's always had makes him the kind of guy who can win leagues for you.

My projections, not including the upside if he gets more carries than I expect or that the added carries don't have a neg. impact on his YPC, like I'd expect.

240 carries

1070 yards

10 rushing TDs

50 receptions

500 rec. yards

2 rec. TDs

 
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I love the guy, but I am also somewhat cautious in projecting him this season.His changed role should help him be more consistent and mostly eliminate the complete stinkers he's been prone to at times, but I don't see the new role having a huge impact on his overall numbers.He's always had a very unique role for a RB, getting both the GL touches and the receptions. As good as MJD is at the GL, personally, I think the Jags would be smart to try to get Jones or Jennings involved at the GL if they are capable, which I think they can be. For the team, I think MJD can be much more valuable in space b/w the 20's with chances to make big plays. That's a great benefit for the Jags, but extra touches b/w the 20's don't do much for his fantasy value (except make him a bit more consistent).Between Jones, Jennings, and Washington, there will be a significant impact on the larger role we're expecting of MJD. I'm not sure who or where, but I thinks those guys will get plenty of touches.My hesitations don't really matter though, I'd still take him in the top 3. The upside is too great. Combining a bit more consistency with the big game ability he's always had makes him the kind of guy who can win leagues for you.My projections, not including the upside if he gets more carries than I expect or that the added carries don't have a neg. impact on his YPC, like I'd expect.240 carries984 yards10 rushing TDs50 receptions500 rec. yards2 rec. TDs
I agree with you here for the most part. However, I'm curious as to why you have MJD only averaging 4.1 ypc this season, especially considering the OL upgrades...
 
I love the guy, but I am also somewhat cautious in projecting him this season.His changed role should help him be more consistent and mostly eliminate the complete stinkers he's been prone to at times, but I don't see the new role having a huge impact on his overall numbers.He's always had a very unique role for a RB, getting both the GL touches and the receptions. As good as MJD is at the GL, personally, I think the Jags would be smart to try to get Jones or Jennings involved at the GL if they are capable, which I think they can be. For the team, I think MJD can be much more valuable in space b/w the 20's with chances to make big plays. That's a great benefit for the Jags, but extra touches b/w the 20's don't do much for his fantasy value (except make him a bit more consistent).Between Jones, Jennings, and Washington, there will be a significant impact on the larger role we're expecting of MJD. I'm not sure who or where, but I thinks those guys will get plenty of touches.My hesitations don't really matter though, I'd still take him in the top 3. The upside is too great. Combining a bit more consistency with the big game ability he's always had makes him the kind of guy who can win leagues for you.My projections, not including the upside if he gets more carries than I expect or that the added carries don't have a neg. impact on his YPC, like I'd expect.240 carries984 yards10 rushing TDs50 receptions500 rec. yards2 rec. TDs
I agree with you here for the most part. However, I'm curious as to why you have MJD only averaging 4.1 ypc this season, especially considering the OL upgrades...
You're right (if that's what you are implying), I do think I'm underestimating what his YPC is likely to be. I think he'll be below his career YPC (4.8), but probably not that much.I assume many of his added carries will be 1st half carries where the yards can be harder to come by and it'll be tough sledding without a Fred Taylor to soften up the defense. There's also the extra late season fatigue that he might experience with an increased role.Of course, that idea might be useless as it doesn't appear that his YPC is any lower in games where he's gotten 15+ carries.I guess something in the 4.4-4.5 range might be more likely.
 
Just found out I have the #1 in a PPR redraft. I will be going with MJD.

Hoping for 1700 total and 14-15 td's with 50-60 receptions. He may be the safest pick in the first round.

 
I really like going against the grain with these threads...but I'm having a hard time doing it. When I see him play, he plays hard. He seems to be willing to play hurt. He can grind out yards. he can break big gains. he can catch the ball. He can make short-yardage runs.

They didn't give him a fat contract to sit on the sidelines. They'll give him a shot to be Mr. Everything imo.

1400 yds, 11 TDs

55 rec 600 yds 5 TDs.

He'd be my #1 pick in a PPR. Not a jags fan but I like watching him play, too.

 
We all know MJD has talent, there's no argument there. The question is, can he display his talent given a full workload?

In the past, we've been teased by players who looked GREAT in share time situations, and then flopped when given the load.

Kevan Barlow in 2003, splitting with Garrison Hearst - 1,024 yards at 5.1 per clip, he was going to be great! Then he started and averaged 3.4 per clip...

Ryan Grant in '07 just missed 1,000 yards at 5.1 per clip for half a season, then last year averaged 3.9 per clip

Marion Barber in '07 just missed 1,000 yards at 4.8 per clip, then last year was averaging 3.9 before getting injured

Jones-Drew has looked great for three seasons, BUT...

- he's never had 200 carries in the NFL

- his yards per carry has gone down each season, as his number of carries has increased

- he's never rushed for 1,000 yards (like Barber)

- his fantasy ranking has always been highly dependent on TDs

The one benefit that MJD has, like Barber had early last season, is he's a very good, and often used receiver out of the backfield. One has to wonder though, if they run him more, will he still be as big a component in the passing game. And - was his usage in the passing game a result of JAX having a dearth of WRs? With their additions, and the development of WRs this year, will he be used as much in the passing game again?

Here's my projection:

240 carries, 3.9 YPC, 936 yards, 11 TDs rushing

35 receptions, 8.8 YPR, 308 yards, 2 TDs receiving

That's 1244 yards and 13 TDs total...202 FP (non-PPR) or 237 FP (1PPR)

 
I really like going against the grain with these threads...but I'm having a hard time doing it. When I see him play, he plays hard. He seems to be willing to play hurt. He can grind out yards. he can break big gains. he can catch the ball. He can make short-yardage runs.They didn't give him a fat contract to sit on the sidelines. They'll give him a shot to be Mr. Everything imo.
This sounds so eerily similar to what people were saying about MArion Barber last season.
 
In 2007, the Jags had a league high 523 rushing attempts. Due to a decimated OL and more porous defense in 2008, they only ran the ball 423 times. Last year, the Jags decided to hire Gregg Williams as DC. Although he had a history of top performing defenses, Jacksonville didn't have the right personnel to run his scheme. Lo and behold, Jacksonville hired Mel Tucker as the new defensive coordinator. However, I expect JDR to have a large hand on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, I expect the defense to be better than last year. Additionally, the Jags spent their two first rounders on the OL and also brought in Tra Thomas. Combining these factors and a running back friendly schedule, I believe the Jags will approach ~490-500 attempts.Of these 490 attempts, I would expect Garrard to see his about 65 carries this year - a slight downtick from last year, due to the revamped line. I think this might be Chauncey Washington's audition, so 40 carries might be the audition the team needs to see. I would expect Jennings to approach 75 or so - strictly a best guess, as I believe he might surprise a little bit. That leaves Greg Jones and MJD. Greg Jones carried the ball 151 times in '05, missed '06, 42 attempts in '07, and a baffling 2 carries last year. I would expect somewhere in the vicinity of ~50.That would leave MJD 260 carries, more than I feel comfortable giving him, but thats what my early projections suggest. With a line that was missing 60% of its starts for a large chunk of the season, MJD averaged 4.2 a clip. I would expect that number to approach 4.4260 attempts, 1144 yards, 12 TDs50 catches, 475 yards, 2 TDs
Solid, well thought out post! :thumbup:
 
switz said:
We all know MJD has talent, there's no argument there. The question is, can he display his talent given a full workload?In the past, we've been teased by players who looked GREAT in share time situations, and then flopped when given the load.Kevan Barlow in 2003, splitting with Garrison Hearst - 1,024 yards at 5.1 per clip, he was going to be great! Then he started and averaged 3.4 per clip...Ryan Grant in '07 just missed 1,000 yards at 5.1 per clip for half a season, then last year averaged 3.9 per clipMarion Barber in '07 just missed 1,000 yards at 4.8 per clip, then last year was averaging 3.9 before getting injuredJones-Drew has looked great for three seasons, BUT...- he's never had 200 carries in the NFL- his yards per carry has gone down each season, as his number of carries has increased- he's never rushed for 1,000 yards (like Barber)- his fantasy ranking has always been highly dependent on TDsThe one benefit that MJD has, like Barber had early last season, is he's a very good, and often used receiver out of the backfield. One has to wonder though, if they run him more, will he still be as big a component in the passing game. And - was his usage in the passing game a result of JAX having a dearth of WRs? With their additions, and the development of WRs this year, will he be used as much in the passing game again?Here's my projection:240 carries, 3.9 YPC, 936 yards, 11 TDs rushing35 receptions, 8.8 YPR, 308 yards, 2 TDs receivingThat's 1244 yards and 13 TDs total...202 FP (non-PPR) or 237 FP (1PPR)
I agree that MJD is not a slam dunk, BUT....He had 197 carries last season... I don't think 3-5 more carries a game is going to make him brittle. He also had 20 kick/punt returns last year, which are at least as violent as a rush attempt, so that 197 is more like 217, plus 62 catches and we are up to 279 touches. That's awfully close to a full workload already.Regarding his ypc last season: I am amazed it was 4.2. Jacksonville's line was atrocious. I would expect an improvement there, especially as the year goes on and the rookies get some seasoning. I seriously doubt MJD's ypc goes down, and it may well go back up to 4.5+.I don't see the relevance of MJD not having rushed for 1000 yards yet. He has had almost 1400 yards from scrimmage 2 out of 3 years, and almost 1200 yards in the other year.His HIGH fantasy ranking has been dependent on TDs... like any highly ranked player. The fact of the matter is that he gets plenty of yards as well. Becoming the full time RB is rather unlikely to cause a decline in his yardage, and he has scored 9, 14, and 15 TDs. I do not expect his TDs to increase simply due to a workload increase, and an increase of offensive weapons MAY affect his TD opportunities, but I fully expect his TD total to be in that 9-15 range.Projection:260 carries, 1200 yards50 catches, 455 yards13 total TDs
 
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switz said:
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I really like going against the grain with these threads...but I'm having a hard time doing it. When I see him play, he plays hard. He seems to be willing to play hurt. He can grind out yards. he can break big gains. he can catch the ball. He can make short-yardage runs.They didn't give him a fat contract to sit on the sidelines. They'll give him a shot to be Mr. Everything imo.
This sounds so eerily similar to what people were saying about MArion Barber last season.
I think Dallas' draft gave people pause that someone else was going to get some time in that backfield. Who's going to bite into MJD's playing time, assuming he's healthy?
 
switz said:
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I really like going against the grain with these threads...but I'm having a hard time doing it. When I see him play, he plays hard. He seems to be willing to play hurt. He can grind out yards. he can break big gains. he can catch the ball. He can make short-yardage runs.They didn't give him a fat contract to sit on the sidelines. They'll give him a shot to be Mr. Everything imo.
This sounds so eerily similar to what people were saying about MArion Barber last season.
There isn't a Felix Jones in Jax.
 
I really like going against the grain with these threads...but I'm having a hard time doing it. When I see him play, he plays hard. He seems to be willing to play hurt. He can grind out yards. he can break big gains. he can catch the ball. He can make short-yardage runs.They didn't give him a fat contract to sit on the sidelines. They'll give him a shot to be Mr. Everything imo.
This sounds so eerily similar to what people were saying about MArion Barber last season.
There isn't a Felix Jones in Jax.
No, but there is a Greg Jones and a Rashad Jennings in Jax...should be interesting to see how they are utilized this year...
 
I really like going against the grain with these threads...but I'm having a hard time doing it. When I see him play, he plays hard. He seems to be willing to play hurt. He can grind out yards. he can break big gains. he can catch the ball. He can make short-yardage runs.They didn't give him a fat contract to sit on the sidelines. They'll give him a shot to be Mr. Everything imo.
I agree, and feel the exact same way about DeAngelo Williams. Both backs I believe will have HUGE years.
 
Fortunately, we don't have to guess what MJD will do as a feature back - there have been eight games in his career so far where he carried the ball at least 19 times - including the final three games of last season. In those eight games MJD:

Carried 168 times for 808 yards (avg 4.81)

Caught 29 passes for 299 yards (avg 10.31)

Scored 7 rushing TDs

Averaged 22.7 FF points per game (PPR)

By coincidence that per-game workload is almost exactly what I think he'll have this year, so the projection is simple.

336 carries for 1616 yards and 14 TDs

58 catches for 561 yards and 2 TDs

Roughly 23 PPG (PPR)

 
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We all know MJD has talent, there's no argument there. The question is, can he display his talent given a full workload?



In the past, we've been teased by players who looked GREAT in share time situations, and then flopped when given the load.

Kevan Barlow in 2003, splitting with Garrison Hearst - 1,024 yards at 5.1 per clip, he was going to be great! Then he started and averaged 3.4 per clip...

Ryan Grant in '07 just missed 1,000 yards at 5.1 per clip for half a season, then last year averaged 3.9 per clip

Marion Barber in '07 just missed 1,000 yards at 4.8 per clip, then last year was averaging 3.9 before getting injured

Jones-Drew has looked great for three seasons, BUT...

- he's never had 200 carries in the NFL

- his yards per carry has gone down each season, as his number of carries has increased

- he's never rushed for 1,000 yards (like Barber)

- his fantasy ranking has always been highly dependent on TDs

The one benefit that MJD has, like Barber had early last season, is he's a very good, and often used receiver out of the backfield. One has to wonder though, if they run him more, will he still be as big a component in the passing game. And - was his usage in the passing game a result of JAX having a dearth of WRs? With their additions, and the development of WRs this year, will he be used as much in the passing game again?

Here's my projection:

240 carries, 3.9 YPC, 936 yards, 11 TDs rushing

35 receptions, 8.8 YPR, 308 yards, 2 TDs receiving

That's 1244 yards and 13 TDs total...202 FP (non-PPR) or 237 FP (1PPR)
I really don't see the point in comparing MJD to Barlow and Barber. When I see Barber run, I see similarities to Marshawn Lynch and Steven Jackson but not MJD. If the point is to bring up people who teased in time shares with under 200 carries, what about ones that have succeeded? Tiki Barber, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, etc.
 
Fortunately, we don't have to guess what MJD will do as a feature back - there have been eight games in his career so far where he carried the ball at least 19 times - including the final three games of last season. In those eight games MJD:

Carried 168 times for 808 yards (avg 4.81)

Caught 29 passes for 299 yards (avg 10.31)

Scored 7 rushing TDs

Averaged 22.7 FF points per game (PPR)

By coincidence that per-game workload is almost exactly what I think he'll have this year, so the projection is simple.

336 carries for 1616 yards and 14 TDs

58 catches for 561 yards and 2 TDs

Roughly 23 PPG (PPR)
As a future owner, I would love to see MJD stay healthy throughout the year and be able to put up those types of numbers. I just don't see him with 336 carries.
 

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