Player Spotlight: Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets Options

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Dustin Keller Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

[travdogg]

Outside of Darren McFadden, I can't think of another player I like more than their ADP than Keller.

Keller was productive last season and in year 2 I'm expecting quite the leap. With Coles leaving someone has to pick up the slack, I think it will be Keller. Also, Chris Baker is gone and he took away several snaps from Keller. With the increased playing time and increased reliance on him, Keller is a prime break out candidate, and that's before mentioning his athletic ability or the fact that he is basically an oversized WR.

65 catches
750 yards
5 TD's

Those numbers could be too low if either Clemens or Sanchez can step up and give them even average QB play.

[mlball77]

A potentially more run-heavy offense in 09 along with a rookie QB; I find it hard to believe Keller improves upon last year's numbers too much.

Recs: 52
Yds: 575
TDs: 4

This post has been edited by mlball77: Jun 8 2009, 07:37 PM

[billrob]

He's the biggest ? I have to answer on my dynasty roster this off season.
All I'm hearing is that he's the best pass catching threat so far at OTAs, and with all 5 OL starters returning this season maybe they'll let the reins loose on him.
But he also will have a rookie at QB, and if Plaxico comes in he'll lose the redzone targets.

I'm going to guess somewhere in the neighbourhood of:
60-70 catches
600-800 yards
and between 4-8 TDs

[Jason Wood]

The thing we have to remember about Keller is that he's, almost by default, the WR2 rather than the TE1. The Jets have Jerricho Cotchery who, while talented, is more suited as a WR2 and good possession option. He's not a do-everything, stretch the field difference maker, yet he's BY FAR the best the Jets have at wideout. At WR2, there's always the chance someone like Clowney can emerge and surprise everyone, but barring that Keller has to be in line for a ton of targets.

Sure, the Jets aren't going to throw a lot if things go as planned, but plenty of TEs have put up solid fantasy numbers in similar ball-control offenses. Heck, Todd Heap played in that kind of offense [and had a similar lack of WR talent competing against him for targets] in Baltimore where Rex hails from.

I think the thing we have to remember about Keller, versus say John Carlson, is that Keller is a plus athlete. Carlson is more in the mold of Jason Witten or Anthony Fasano in that he's a big, strong kid who can block really well. And happens to also be able to catch passes pretty well. Keller is more athletic than that. He's not on the level of a Kellen Winslow or Gates, but he's certainly as able-bodies and fluid as Chris Cooley or Zach Miller, if not moreso.

No matter who lines up under center, I can't see how Keller doesn't get targeted early and often. And because of his athleticism and ability to create mismatches, I actually think we'll see HIM, not Cotchery, making plays downfield when they're available.

[mlball77]

I don't know, part of me thinks Keller is capable of more than I have him projected at, but his athleticism and ability to create mismatches only will take him so far (see Vernon Davis). My issue with him this year is QB play, which I believe is a valid concern, and more so the likelihood that NYJ focuses much more heavily on the run and being a ball control offense. Even if Keller is essentially NYJ's WR2, that may not amount to a production spike in 09 if the Jets run a ton.

[rzrback77]

I am at a quandry on how to project the Jets offensive skill players. I do like their potential running game as Thomas Jones has been very good and Leon Washington just keeps getting better and better, plus they added a potential player in rookie Shonn Green. Seems like a lot of NFL potential, if not fantasy potential.

Their receiving options I am not nearly so high on. Cotchery and Keller, that's it. I think that they need one of the FA WRs more than almost anybody. When you also add the fact that they will have a first time starter, who could be a rookie who only started one season in college, it totally lacks promise for the passing attack.

I think that their best game plan may be to be good enough on defense that they can play ball control and limit their turnovers. That would also minimize their receiving options. I just don't like Cotchery as the top WR and you need that to open up the middle for the TE. I do however like Keller and think that he will be targeted more and improve his fantasy stats just a little from his rookie season.

If the Jets sign Burress or Matt Jones and if they get better QB play than I expect, these numbers should be low. I am just not counting on those things happening.

Dustin Keller 85 targets 50 catches 525 yards 10.5 ypc 4 TDs

[TS Garp]

The more I look at Keller, the more bullish I get about him this season. The QB situation in New York is a concern, and it's not to be underestimated, but he has a lot working in his favor from a fantasy standpoint. The departure of Coles and the absence of a true #1 WR means that they'll look Keller's way a lot. They'll simply have to. Also, check out these splits:

Games 1-8: 24 targets, 13 rec, 147 yds, 2 td's
Games 9-16: 54 targets, 35 rec, 388 yds, 1 td

You love to see that sort of progress from a rookie and the team obviously started trusting him more and more. A lot has changed in New York, but I have to think that he's going to be a focal point of the offense.

My projection:

62 receptions, 707 yards, 6 td's

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him top those numbers by 15 - 20%. Lots of upside here.

[Flea Flicker]

It would be incorrect to think that Keller's stats suffer due to the loss of Brett Favre. A good receiving TE can be a young and inexperienced QB's friend, and it appears that all of the possible QB options for the Jets will be young and/or inexperienced.

Keller may not ever be 'elite', but his ADP right now just screams value. There was a 4-game stretch last year beginning in Week 10 where he went 6-107, 8-87, 6-42, 7-77, all while getting 6-8 targets per game. With Laveranues Coles moving on to the Bengals, having an extended run this season like that 4-game stretch with 6+ targets per game seems within reach.

63 rec, 700 yards, 5 TD

Wait an extra couple rounds on drafting a TE to shore up your depth at the other positions, then take Keller as your starting TE and try to pick up a solid TE2 like Heath Miller or Anthony Fasano to back him up.

[32 Counter Pass]

Defacto #2 WR IMO

95 Targets, 57 Rec, 673 Yds, 4 Tds (with upside)

[prgromek]

could this guy emerge as the best receiving TE in the league this year?

He looks good.

[SSOG]

could this guy emerge as the best receiving TE in the league this year?

He looks good.

I think he might be the best receiver playing the TE position in the game right now. Witten and Gates are both great receiving TEs, but Keller's essentially a receiver masquerading as a TE. He's a much more natural receiver than any other TE in the league right now. He's essentially a Dallas Clark or a Tony Scheffler or a Shannon Sharpe instead of a Jason Witten or a Tony Gonzalez or an Antonio Gates. I like him a lot... although I don't think he has a prayer of finishing the season as the #1 TE.

[HoTnickZ]

Bump, for thoughts after the trade.

I think this helps him.

This post has been edited by HoTnickZ: Oct 10 2009, 08:09 AM

[SSOG]

I rarely think that the acquisition of a quality target helps the other targets on the offense. Basically, bringing in another good receiver means fewer targets for all of the other receivers. Historically speaking, there's little to no difference in catch% based on coverage faced (if you look back at the careers of #2 WRs who transitioned to #1 WRs, their catch% almost always stays constant or even increases when they become the #1 option). As a result, losing targets generally hurts more than gaining easier coverages.

A great example of this is Lee Evans. A lot of people thought that the addition of Terrell Owens would be a huge boon to Lee Evans because it would open things up... but, instead, Evans is averaging just over half as many yards per game this year compared to last year.

The one bright side for Keller is that midseason WR acquisitions rarely make much of an impact.

[UnknownCoach]

Bump, for thoughts after the trade.

I think this helps him.

No effect. The thing that will really affect Keller is Sanchez's development. That wont suddenly change overnight, but between now and the end of the year could be considerably better.

[PhantomJB]

Anyone else considering dropping him for a TE2-3 on the waiver wire? Unfortunately after Game 3 I dropped Vernon Davis for Tashard Choice so have no backup. Of course then Davis started going off.

Through 5 games, Keller's stats are 12/171/1

That projects to 38/547/3 for the full year.

Over the last 4 games, he is 8/77/1.

That projects out 32/308/4.

Looks like TE2/3 to me.

Does anyone think he will do better than that? Last night was painful to watch given how much this guy has been hyped. And Cotchery wasn't even that involved.

[Johnny Ice]

Anyone else considering dropping him for a TE2-3 on the waiver wire? Unfortunately after Game 3 I dropped Vernon Davis for Tashard Choice so have no backup. Of course then Davis started going off.

Through 5 games, Keller's stats are 12/171/1

That projects to 38/547/3 for the full year.

Over the last 4 games, he is 8/77/1.

That projects out 32/308/4.

Looks like TE2/3 to me.

Does anyone think he will do better than that? Last night was painful to watch given how much this guy has been hyped. And Cotchery wasn't even that involved.

I plan on dropping Keller this week for Finley or Sean Ryan.

[Goldfinger007]

I'm pretty sure Ill be dropping him

[lyon812]

Anyone else considering dropping him for a TE2-3 on the waiver wire? Unfortunately after Game 3 I dropped Vernon Davis for Tashard Choice so have no backup. Of course then Davis started going off.

Through 5 games, Keller's stats are 12/171/1

That projects to 38/547/3 for the full year.

Over the last 4 games, he is 8/77/1.

That projects out 32/308/4.

Looks like TE2/3 to me.

Does anyone think he will do better than that? Last night was painful to watch given how much this guy has been hyped. And Cotchery wasn't even that involved.

I plan on dropping Keller this week for Finley or Sean Ryan.

I've been keeping him in ahead of Finley because Keller, at least, has been getting more consistent targets. 7-5-4-5. Conversely, Finley was 1-7-0-7 and has to compete with Lee (3-6-4-5). Note those feast-or-famine combined TE target numbers in GB, which may drop when the OL improves.

Last night, Keller had 1 target. I'm hoping that's a blip and that he'll return to his 5 weekly targets.

[TLEF316]

big jets fan, but he's a drop at this point unless its dynasty league. Sanchez just isnt looking at him and know edwards is in the fold. As Sanchez gets more and more comfortable looking downfield and Cotchery gets healthy, it will get uglier for Keller.

still a fan of his talent though.

[bushdocda]

Not ready to drop but will happily dump jharrison if my claim. Had some odd drops of winslow and olsen in my league last week. I need someone else to choose from at te than just Keller