Player Spotlight: DeAngelo Williams (1 Viewer)

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: DeAngelo Williams Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

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Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

DeAngelo will certainly get lower rushing attempts than the 270+ last year but not by much, still expect him to get the lion's share of the carries. (D-Will 250 rush attempts to Stew's 200)

250, 1160yds, 4.6 ypc, 11 TDs, 34 rec, 270 yds, 2 TDs.

a very safe RB that can be had in the late first round IMO.....

Last season, Williams and Stewart combined for 457 rushing attempts; a number that I think will Panthers will try and get to again this year. However, I think the split is going to be a little closer to 50/50, than the 60/40 it was last year.

Williams proved last season he is a special back, scoring 20 times and averaging 5.5 a clip. The problem is that Stewart also looks like a special back and brings the added dimension of power, the staple of the Panther ground attack.

Overall, I think this is still a murky situation on how the split will be. I absolutely hate the value Williams provides at his ADP, wheras, I think the value of Stewart at his ADP is tremendous.

If I had to guess I would go...

Willaims:

245 Rushes

1176 Yards Rushing

4.9 YPC

12 TDs

25 Receptions

175 Yards Receiving

7.0 YPR

1 TD

Stewart:

215 Rushes

968 Yards Rushing

4.5 YPC

10 TDs

15 Receptions

100 Yards Receiving

6.5 YPR

0 TDs

TaxMan said:

DeAngelo will certainly get lower rushing attempts than the 270+ last year but not by much, still expect him to get the lion's share of the carries. (D-Will 250 rush attempts to Stew's 200)250, 1160yds, 4.6 ypc, 11 TDs, 34 rec, 270 yds, 2 TDs. a very safe RB that can be had in the late first round IMO.....

Click to expand...

You realize that is almost 1 yard less per carry than what he averaged last year? I can understand predicting less carries assuming Stewart earns a bigger portion, but why would his productivity per rush go down? Wouldn't he be that much fresher for each run? Or more motivated if he's losing some carries? If he averaged 5.5 yards per carry last year, I think 5.0 is about as much as he slides. 270, 1350, 5.0 ypc, 14 TDs, 44 rec, 352 yds, 3 TDs.

LarryAllen said:

Last season, Williams and Stewart combined for 457 rushing attempts; a number that I think will Panthers will try and get to again this year. However, I think the split is going to be a little closer to 50/50, than the 60/40 it was last year.Williams proved last season he is a special back, scoring 20 times and averaging 5.5 a clip. The problem is that Stewart also looks like a special back and brings the added dimension of power, the staple of the Panther ground attack.Overall, I think this is still a murky situation on how the split will be. I absolutely hate the value Williams provides at his ADP, wheras, I think the value of Stewart at his ADP is tremendous.If I had to guess I would go...Willaims:245 Rushes1176 Yards Rushing4.9 YPC12 TDs25 Receptions175 Yards Receiving7.0 YPR1 TDStewart:215 Rushes968 Yards Rushing4.5 YPC10 TDs15 Receptions100 Yards Receiving6.5 YPR0 TDs

Click to expand...

Why do you think the coaches want to take away 25 carries from a RB in his 4th year who ran for 1500 yds, scored 20 TDs, and did this at a 5.4 ypc clip to give them to a 2nd year RB with a propensity to get injured (and is still healing) who ran for 836 yds, scored 10 TDs, and did this at only a 4.5 ypc clip? Is there a reason that coaches would give the ball more to the guy not performing as well?

Ripleys said:

TaxMan said:

DeAngelo will certainly get lower rushing attempts than the 270+ last year but not by much, still expect him to get the lion's share of the carries. (D-Will 250 rush attempts to Stew's 200)250, 1160yds, 4.6 ypc, 11 TDs, 34 rec, 270 yds, 2 TDs. a very safe RB that can be had in the late first round IMO.....

Click to expand...

You realize that is almost 1 yard less per carry than what he averaged last year? I can understand predicting less carries assuming Stewart earns a bigger portion, but why would his productivity per rush go down? Wouldn't he be that much fresher for each run? Or more motivated if he's losing some carries? If he averaged 5.5 yards per carry last year, I think 5.0 is about as much as he slides. 270, 1350, 5.0 ypc, 14 TDs, 44 rec, 352 yds, 3 TDs.

Click to expand...

not a lot of backs average over 5ypc for 3 consecutive years, it's just mighty tough, considering also the CAR schedule this year. 5.5ypc is his career best, i can see 4.8, but 4.6 isn't really too bad (it's actually pretty darn good for having 250 rush attempts).

TaxMan said:

not a lot of backs average over 5ypc for 3 consecutive years, it's just mighty tough, considering also the CAR schedule this year. 5.5ypc is his career best, i can see 4.8, but 4.6 isn't really too bad (it's actually pretty darn good for having 250 rush attempts).

Click to expand...

A similar statement was made in the Jacobs thread. If I just flipped a coin 9 times, and it came up heads all 9 times, are you going to pick heads or tails on the 10th flip? When people notice a trend, why is there a tendency to go against it?

If teams learn to guard against Williams reversing direction, he'll have less of these 30, 40, 50 yard runs. But that just means he'll consistently pick up 5-10 yard runs taking what they give him. I think anything less than 5.0 is underestimating the guy.

gonzobill5 said:

TaxMan said:

not a lot of backs average over 5ypc for 3 consecutive years, it's just mighty tough, considering also the CAR schedule this year. 5.5ypc is his career best, i can see 4.8, but 4.6 isn't really too bad (it's actually pretty darn good for having 250 rush attempts).

Click to expand...

A similar statement was made in the Jacobs thread. If I just flipped a coin 9 times, and it came up heads all 9 times, are you going to pick heads or tails on the 10th flip? When people notice a trend, why is there a tendency to go against it?

If teams learn to guard against Williams reversing direction, he'll have less of these 30, 40, 50 yard runs. But that just means he'll consistently pick up 5-10 yard runs taking what they give him. I think anything less than 5.0 is underestimating the guy.

Click to expand...

The difference is that there is a 50% chance of head or tails as a result in a coin flip. There is not a 50% chance of a RB having a 5.0 ypc. The median ypc for RB is not 5.0. I'm not saying that Williams will or won't have a 5.0 ypc this year, only that mathematically I don't see it as a 50% probability situation.As for the Jacobs situation, history has shown that for whatever reason not many backs had three seasons with a 5.0 ypc in a row. Inuries, weather, field conditions, field position, etc. could all play out differently and thus prevent players from accomplishing it. That doesn't mean it won't happen. All it means is that it's been pretty rare when it does happen.

David Yudkin said:

gonzobill5 said:

TaxMan said:

not a lot of backs average over 5ypc for 3 consecutive years, it's just mighty tough, considering also the CAR schedule this year. 5.5ypc is his career best, i can see 4.8, but 4.6 isn't really too bad (it's actually pretty darn good for having 250 rush attempts).

Click to expand...

A similar statement was made in the Jacobs thread. If I just flipped a coin 9 times, and it came up heads all 9 times, are you going to pick heads or tails on the 10th flip? When people notice a trend, why is there a tendency to go against it?

If teams learn to guard against Williams reversing direction, he'll have less of these 30, 40, 50 yard runs. But that just means he'll consistently pick up 5-10 yard runs taking what they give him. I think anything less than 5.0 is underestimating the guy.

Click to expand...

The difference is that there is a 50% chance of head or tails as a result in a coin flip. There is not a 50% chance of a RB having a 5.0 ypc. The median ypc for RB is not 5.0. I'm not saying that Williams will or won't have a 5.0 ypc this year, only that mathematically I don't see it as a 50% probability situation.As for the Jacobs situation, history has shown that for whatever reason not many backs had three seasons with a 5.0 ypc in a row. Inuries, weather, field conditions, field position, etc. could all play out differently and thus prevent players from accomplishing it. That doesn't mean it won't happen. All it means is that it's been pretty rare when it does happen.

Click to expand...

Here's why this argument is flawed -The question isn't: "what is the probability that a randomly selected runningback will have 3 consecutive season's over 5.0 ypc?"

The question is: "brandon jacobs just had 5.0 ypc for his first two seasons as the leading ballcarrier for the NYG, what is the probability he will do it a third time?"

Would you have bet against it last year? The year before? If so, and your opinion of him hasn't improved with his accomplishments, then by all means continue to bet against it.

My coin example illustrates a tendency I've noticed with ffballers who do projections. If a guy has not yet established himself as an elite back (a la DWill and Jacobs) they bet against the trends, while if a guy is elite they tend to roll with them. In my experience as a degenerate gambler, you always roll with the trends unless you have information to the contrary.

gonzobill5 said:

David Yudkin said:

gonzobill5 said:

TaxMan said:

not a lot of backs average over 5ypc for 3 consecutive years, it's just mighty tough, considering also the CAR schedule this year. 5.5ypc is his career best, i can see 4.8, but 4.6 isn't really too bad (it's actually pretty darn good for having 250 rush attempts).

Click to expand...

A similar statement was made in the Jacobs thread. If I just flipped a coin 9 times, and it came up heads all 9 times, are you going to pick heads or tails on the 10th flip? When people notice a trend, why is there a tendency to go against it?

If teams learn to guard against Williams reversing direction, he'll have less of these 30, 40, 50 yard runs. But that just means he'll consistently pick up 5-10 yard runs taking what they give him. I think anything less than 5.0 is underestimating the guy.

Click to expand...

The difference is that there is a 50% chance of head or tails as a result in a coin flip. There is not a 50% chance of a RB having a 5.0 ypc. The median ypc for RB is not 5.0. I'm not saying that Williams will or won't have a 5.0 ypc this year, only that mathematically I don't see it as a 50% probability situation.As for the Jacobs situation, history has shown that for whatever reason not many backs had three seasons with a 5.0 ypc in a row. Inuries, weather, field conditions, field position, etc. could all play out differently and thus prevent players from accomplishing it. That doesn't mean it won't happen. All it means is that it's been pretty rare when it does happen.

Click to expand...

Here's why this argument is flawed -The question isn't: "what is the probability that a randomly selected runningback will have 3 consecutive season's over 5.0 ypc?"

The question is: "brandon jacobs just had 5.0 ypc for his first two seasons as the leading ballcarrier for the NYG, what is the probability he will do it a third time?"

Would you have bet against it last year? The year before? If so, and your opinion of him hasn't improved with his accomplishments, then by all means continue to bet against it.

My coin example illustrates a tendency I've noticed with ffballers who do projections. If a guy has not yet established himself as an elite back (a la DWill and Jacobs) they bet against the trends, while if a guy is elite they tend to roll with them. In my experience as a degenerate gambler, you always roll with the trends unless you have information to the contrary.

Click to expand...

I think you're even more looking for trouble with Williams. Only 8 RB have had 250 carries and a 5.5 ypc since 1960. None of them did it again the following season (although with rounding up Portis did).None of this means Jacobs or Williams won't do well this season, and frankly until they make ypc a fantasy category I really don't have much interest in following ypc's. by all means Williams COULD do it again . . . I just wouldn't expect him to have such a high ypc again this year.

Hey David, I'm curious, what do you think DeAngleo's YPC will be this year?

I'm (a little) surprised at how cautious people are with DeAngelo this year. I understand the following to be potential red flags, but I'm not convinced that any will knock him out of being a very solid RB1. Let's see if we can determine his floor:

Presence of Stewart - Last year, the split was 60/40. Do we really believe that Fox, given his proven history in sticking with vets, and given the season DeAngelo just had, would tip the scale in the other direction? It's my contention that he would not. Let's say it goes 55/45. With 457 attempts between them, Williams would see 251 attempts in 2009. His receiving stats were pedestrian, as were Stewart's so I don't see a need to make a change to last year's stats of 121 yards.

YPC - Agreed, 5.5 is very good. So, let's just use his career YPC of 5.1 for our projection. It's three years of data. Not ideal, as I think five tells a better story, but definitely as good a place to start as any.

2009 TD anamoly - no question, 20 was crazy...but if you hang your hat on the fact that TDs are too eratic and unpredictable, the best thing you can do is lower it a reasonable amount and throw the dart. Of course, you pretty much have to do this for everyone. So, for the sake of pontification, let's assume a 35% decrease - that gives him 13 TDs, or 78 points.

So, here we go...

- 251 carries

- 5.1 YPC

- 1280 yards rushing

- 121 yards receiving

- 13 TDs

- 218 fantasy points (RB10 in 2008)

Given the fact that I don't believe he will see such regression (based only on my gut), I would pad those floor stats by 10%, or 240 pts...dead center RB1.

With a floor of 218, and upside of being the #1 guy in the land, DeAngelo represents one of the SAFEST picks in the first round to me. Personally, I will select him over just about everyone but Peterson, and MAYBE Turner...I'm still on the fence there. I'm hoping I draw a middle selection so I can grab him. The fact that guys like Steven Jackson and Matt Forte are going before him is comical.



Bottom line - if you saw him run last year, you know he's the goods.

For posterity's sake...

The "A Case for DeAngelo Williams" thread.

WOW...let's resume cabin pressure.

In 2006 Panthers threw it 538 times, 2007-505, and in 2008-414..they have nowhere to go but up from there.

In 2006 Panthers ran it 389 times, 2007-406, and last year 475...they have nowhere to go but down from there. Forget about ypc and that nonsense although they went from 4.0 to 5.0 in 1 season.

If you believe the Panthers will throw it about 50 times more this season which is only 3 more attempts per game, and deduct 50 rushes you get 425 carries. DWill gets about 240 and JStew about 160-180.

DWill: 240-1150-10TDs, and 30-200-1TD

1350-1500 total yds and maybe 10-12 TDs would be a decent range for him. Nowhere near the RB1 spot again.

Ministry of Pain said:

WOW...let's resume cabin pressure. In 2006 Panthers threw it 538 times, 2007-505, and in 2008-414..they have nowhere to go but up from there. In 2006 Panthers ran it 389 times, 2007-406, and last year 475...they have nowhere to go but down from there. Forget about ypc and that nonsense although they went from 4.0 to 5.0 in 1 season. If you believe the Panthers will throw it about 50 times more this season which is only 3 more attempts per game, and deduct 50 rushes you get 425 carries. DWill gets about 240 and JStew about 160-180.DWill: 240-1150-10TDs, and 30-200-1TD1350-1500 total yds and maybe 10-12 TDs would be a decent range for him. Nowhere near the RB1 spot again.

Click to expand...

I considered the potential for the carries to go down, and it certainly can. Of course, given your projection of 240 carries, we're not off by that much with my 251.Regarding the range of 1350-1500 and 10-12 TDs, that would make him RB12 on the low end, RB6 on the high end.Who would you draft before Williams?

People look at his eye popping year end stats, but how do Deangelo backers view his rather underwhelming first half production?

Kool-Aid Larry said:

People look at his eye popping year end stats, but how do Deangelo backers view his rather underwhelming first half production?

Click to expand...

varianceSimilar to how I view bad games by guys like LT and Peterson, etc.

gianmarco said:

Kool-Aid Larry said:

People look at his eye popping year end stats, but how do Deangelo backers view his rather underwhelming first half production?

Click to expand...

varianceSimilar to how I view bad games by guys like LT and Peterson, etc.

Click to expand...

Speaking fo which, all of these projections seem to be a major downturn for the guy.What's to say his entire season doesn't turn out to be like the 2nd half? He's an amazing runner if you watch the games and the tapes. What's to say he can't go LJ (who had a stellar 2nd half followed by an amazing season) other than Stewart? I think Fox rides Veterans and the hot hand, and if DWill is hot to start...I get the feelign they simply feed him and use Stewart as an MJD esque power/breather for Williams.

-jb- said:

Ministry of Pain said:

WOW...let's resume cabin pressure. In 2006 Panthers threw it 538 times, 2007-505, and in 2008-414..they have nowhere to go but up from there. In 2006 Panthers ran it 389 times, 2007-406, and last year 475...they have nowhere to go but down from there. Forget about ypc and that nonsense although they went from 4.0 to 5.0 in 1 season. If you believe the Panthers will throw it about 50 times more this season which is only 3 more attempts per game, and deduct 50 rushes you get 425 carries. DWill gets about 240 and JStew about 160-180.DWill: 240-1150-10TDs, and 30-200-1TD1350-1500 total yds and maybe 10-12 TDs would be a decent range for him. Nowhere near the RB1 spot again.

Click to expand...

I considered the potential for the carries to go down, and it certainly can. Of course, given your projection of 240 carries, we're not off by that much with my 251.Regarding the range of 1350-1500 and 10-12 TDs, that would make him RB12 on the low end, RB6 on the high end.Who would you draft before Williams?

Click to expand...

Great question...ADP and LT for sure...after that it starts getting dicey for me real fast. I am not too hot on a lot of the projected top10 RBs this year according to projections and ADP. I think Turner, MJD, and many others are going to be disappointments for many. If you are wondering about who I like to crack the top10, there is a lot of RBs that I think can make it there with a little luck. I will be doing an RB thread/article sometime soon. I believe this is th eyear to lay off the RBs early and load up on true stud WRs, the value to me in the sweet spot round from 3-8 looks like RBs.

I think he is going to upset a lot of owners this year. I will avoid him.

There is one statistic that is really tough to predict year in and year out for RB's and teams and that is rushing TD's.

Let us look at Carolina Panthers running backs and full backs rushing TD's dating back to 2004.

2004

Goings: 6

Foster: 2

Total: 8

2005

Davis: 12

Foster: 2

Robertson: 1

Total 15

2006

Foster: 3

Williams: 1

Hoover: 1

Total 5

2007

Williams: 4

Foster: 3

Total: 7

2008

Williams: 18

Stewart: 10

Total: 28

I want to look at team rushing statistics dating back to 2004 and how many NFL teams have reached 20 total rushing TD's in that time frame.

In 2008 there was 7

In 2007 only 1 (minny)

In 2006 only 4

In 2005 there was 5

In 2004 only 3 teams

So on average 3-5 teams rush for at least 20 TD's as a team. So lets say that Carolina is one of those 3-5 teams this year which is a possibility, but remembering that prior to their 2008 year they were not even close to getting to 20. Anywho, Let us give them 20 this season, how many do we give to Williams and how many do we give Stewart? I see a lot of projections giving Williams double digit TD's but I am not even convinced that he will get to 8 or 10. Partly due to last year being a fluke year for Carolina's rushing totals, and because I see Stewart as a much more conventional goaline back and him getting a lot more of those looks.

Kool-Aid Larry said:

People look at his eye popping year end stats, but how do Deangelo backers view his rather underwhelming first half production?

Click to expand...

all I have to say is I'd rather draft a guy with a strong 2nd half than a strong 1st half. At least he finished the Year strong and scored well during the weeks that would be the fantasy playoffs.

Carter_Can_Fly said:

There is one statistic that is really tough to predict year in and year out for RB's and teams and that is rushing TD's.

Let us look at Carolina Panthers running backs and full backs rushing TD's dating back to 2004.

2004

Goings: 6

Foster: 2

Total: 8

2005

Davis: 12

Foster: 2

Robertson: 1

Total 15

2006

Foster: 3

Williams: 1

Hoover: 1

Total 5

2007

Williams: 4

Foster: 3

Total: 7

2008

Williams: 18

Stewart: 10

Total: 28

I want to look at team rushing statistics dating back to 2004 and how many NFL teams have reached 20 total rushing TD's in that time frame.

In 2008 there was 7

In 2007 only 1 (minny)

In 2006 only 4

In 2005 there was 5

In 2004 only 3 teams

So on average 3-5 teams rush for at least 20 TD's as a team. So lets say that Carolina is one of those 3-5 teams this year which is a possibility, but remembering that prior to their 2008 year they were not even close to getting to 20. Anywho, Let us give them 20 this season, how many do we give to Williams and how many do we give Stewart? I see a lot of projections giving Williams double digit TD's but I am not even convinced that he will get to 8 or 10. Partly due to last year being a fluke year for Carolina's rushing totals, and because I see Stewart as a much more conventional goaline back and him getting a lot more of those looks.

Click to expand...

What has changed from last year that will hurt their running game? They are a top 3-5 running team without a doubt, and two great backs, who will both be around 10 TDs.Williams:

250 carries at 5.2ypc = 1300 yards

30 rec for 280 yards

1 TD for every 20th touch = 12 rushing TDs and 2 rec TDs.

Mainevent said:

Carter_Can_Fly said:

There is one statistic that is really tough to predict year in and year out for RB's and teams and that is rushing TD's.

Let us look at Carolina Panthers running backs and full backs rushing TD's dating back to 2004.

2004

Goings: 6

Foster: 2

Total: 8

2005

Davis: 12

Foster: 2

Robertson: 1

Total 15

2006

Foster: 3

Williams: 1

Hoover: 1

Total 5

2007

Williams: 4

Foster: 3

Total: 7

2008

Williams: 18

Stewart: 10

Total: 28

I want to look at team rushing statistics dating back to 2004 and how many NFL teams have reached 20 total rushing TD's in that time frame.

In 2008 there was 7

In 2007 only 1 (minny)

In 2006 only 4

In 2005 there was 5

In 2004 only 3 teams

So on average 3-5 teams rush for at least 20 TD's as a team. So lets say that Carolina is one of those 3-5 teams this year which is a possibility, but remembering that prior to their 2008 year they were not even close to getting to 20. Anywho, Let us give them 20 this season, how many do we give to Williams and how many do we give Stewart? I see a lot of projections giving Williams double digit TD's but I am not even convinced that he will get to 8 or 10. Partly due to last year being a fluke year for Carolina's rushing totals, and because I see Stewart as a much more conventional goaline back and him getting a lot more of those looks.

Click to expand...

What has changed from last year that will hurt their running game? They are a top 3-5 running team without a doubt, and two great backs, who will both be around 10 TDs.Williams:

250 carries at 5.2ypc = 1300 yards

30 rec for 280 yards

1 TD for every 20th touch = 12 rushing TDs and 2 rec TDs.

Click to expand...

So you have Williams with 12 rushing TD's and how many would you give Stewart? What do you have projected out of Carolina as far as rushing TD's as a team?

Mainevent said:

What has changed from last year that will hurt their running game? They are a top 3-5 running team without a doubt, and two great backs, who will both be around 10 TDs.Williams:250 carries at 5.2ypc = 1300 yards30 rec for 280 yards1 TD for every 20th touch = 12 rushing TDs and 2 rec TDs.

Click to expand...

Here's the thing. Many times NOTHING changes from year to year . . . yet the results can be dramatically different. In theory, as you pointed out, there is nothing specific to point to to suggest that D-Will and the Panthers won't do as well running the ball this year. But if you look at what happened . . .Williams had a 5.5 ypc . . . and as I already mentioned no one has ever done that in back-to-back years with at least 250 carries in a season.Williams scored 16 times over an 8-game stretch. I don't want to scramble and see how often that that's ever happened, but it's rare for a RB to be able to sustain that across an entire season.Williams had almost 1,000 yards rushing in the second have of the season and almost had 200 carries in the process. Not many backs have had 2,000 uard seasons or 400 carries in a season. I'm not saying that he can't do it, only that it would be quite a feat.As for the CAR running game in general, as MOP noted, they had not been anywhere near as successful in the past. While I would not consider what they produced in 2008 a fluke, I would think that a regression would be in order as that has not been their baseline. If they continue to post equally impressive production totals moving forward, their likelihood of maintaining that production would improve IMO.People can calculate projections however they want. But prior to last year, Williams averaged a TD scored every 46 touches. Maybe he will score once every 20 times he touches the ball.IMO, Williams will see his ypc and TD scoring% drop this year. Since overall he did not have a huge total workload, there at least is the opportunity for him to have more total touches on the season than last year. If he doesn't improve his total touches, I think he'll see a drop-off in his fantasy scoring rate. With Stewart getting nearly 200 touches last year, I'm not sure how many more touches Williams will get though.What people don't consider in these types of debates is this. While the core of players may be the same, so much else can change and people often don't stop and consider those elements. For example . . .Big runs last year could see a flag thrown and be called back this year.The player in question could get a nagging injury that he didn't have the year before.Other supporting players and key blockers could get hurt and impact the outcome.The defense might not be as good and force the Panthers to pass more.Balls that were tipped and incomplete or fumbles that bounced the right way don't go the same way this year.The weather could be better or worse.The level of opposition could be better.The number of plays, number of possessions, starting field position, etc. could all be different.Basically, there was a perfect storm of things that aligned perfectly and allowed Williams to do what he did last year. While those things could play out exactly the same way this year, those things rarely work out the same again.

David Yudkin said:

Mainevent said:

What has changed from last year that will hurt their running game? They are a top 3-5 running team without a doubt, and two great backs, who will both be around 10 TDs.Williams:250 carries at 5.2ypc = 1300 yards30 rec for 280 yards1 TD for every 20th touch = 12 rushing TDs and 2 rec TDs.

Click to expand...

Here's the thing. Many times NOTHING changes from year to year . . . yet the results can be dramatically different. In theory, as you pointed out, there is nothing specific to point to to suggest that D-Will and the Panthers won't do as well running the ball this year. But if you look at what happened . . .Williams had a 5.5 ypc . . . and as I already mentioned no one has ever done that in back-to-back years with at least 250 carries in a season.Williams scored 16 times over an 8-game stretch. I don't want to scramble and see how often that that's ever happened, but it's rare for a RB to be able to sustain that across an entire season.Williams had almost 1,000 yards rushing in the second have of the season and almost had 200 carries in the process. Not many backs have had 2,000 uard seasons or 400 carries in a season. I'm not saying that he can't do it, only that it would be quite a feat.Big runs last year could see a flag thrown and be called back this year.The player in question could get a nagging injury that he didn't have the year before.Other supporting players and key blockers could get hurt and impact the outcome.The defense might not be as good and force the Panthers to pass more.Balls that were tipped and incomplete or fumbles that bounced the right way don't go the same way this year.The weather could be better or worse.The level of opposition could be better.The number of plays, number of possessions, starting field position, etc. could all be different.Basically, there was a perfect storm of things that aligned perfectly and allowed Williams to do what he did last year. While those things could play out exactly the same way this year, those things rarely work out the same again.

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I agree a lot of things went right last year. But there was a thread earlier that showed the elite company he joined with his high ypc, with a min number of 200 - 250 carries, and 20 TDs. All or those players on the list were HOF's, or elite RBs. The majority of those RBs followed up the next year with RB1 numbers, albeit less than the previous year in most cases (if not all). Unless DWill is now the exception, I see another top 10 year. There are a lot of if/buts, but when making projections you don't project injury. I just don't see how you can, in that case every players numbers should be knocked back and would lead to very conservative projections all around, in the end it is all relative. So why not project no RBs to be injured, and base it more on situation/schedule and all the other factors.I agree DWill won't match last years numbers, but I don't see him just falling off the map. With a healthier Stewart, I'd hope both RBs remain fresher. There are too many conditions as you listed that could factor in, and you can't predict those, and I could argue each one with the exact opposite.What if Stewart goes down in game one, what if Carolina is playing teams that are weaker (or injury riddled when carolina plays them), what if they get more possessions, what if the weather is perfect each game...etc. No way to gauge that. I don't think anyone is predicting DWill to have 400 carries and run for 2000 yards, but he's always had an above avg ypc, and took full advantage of the opportunity given to him last year, and probably had a career year.

Mainevent said:

David Yudkin said:

Mainevent said:

What has changed from last year that will hurt their running game? They are a top 3-5 running team without a doubt, and two great backs, who will both be around 10 TDs.Williams:250 carries at 5.2ypc = 1300 yards30 rec for 280 yards1 TD for every 20th touch = 12 rushing TDs and 2 rec TDs.

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Here's the thing. Many times NOTHING changes from year to year . . . yet the results can be dramatically different. In theory, as you pointed out, there is nothing specific to point to to suggest that D-Will and the Panthers won't do as well running the ball this year. But if you look at what happened . . .Williams had a 5.5 ypc . . . and as I already mentioned no one has ever done that in back-to-back years with at least 250 carries in a season.Williams scored 16 times over an 8-game stretch. I don't want to scramble and see how often that that's ever happened, but it's rare for a RB to be able to sustain that across an entire season.Williams had almost 1,000 yards rushing in the second have of the season and almost had 200 carries in the process. Not many backs have had 2,000 uard seasons or 400 carries in a season. I'm not saying that he can't do it, only that it would be quite a feat.Big runs last year could see a flag thrown and be called back this year.The player in question could get a nagging injury that he didn't have the year before.Other supporting players and key blockers could get hurt and impact the outcome.The defense might not be as good and force the Panthers to pass more.Balls that were tipped and incomplete or fumbles that bounced the right way don't go the same way this year.The weather could be better or worse.The level of opposition could be better.The number of plays, number of possessions, starting field position, etc. could all be different.Basically, there was a perfect storm of things that aligned perfectly and allowed Williams to do what he did last year. While those things could play out exactly the same way this year, those things rarely work out the same again.

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I agree a lot of things went right last year. But there was a thread earlier that showed the elite company he joined with his high ypc, with a min number of 200 - 250 carries, and 20 TDs. All or those players on the list were HOF's, or elite RBs. The majority of those RBs followed up the next year with RB1 numbers, albeit less than the previous year in most cases (if not all). Unless DWill is now the exception, I see another top 10 year. There are a lot of if/buts, but when making projections you don't project injury. I just don't see how you can, in that case every players numbers should be knocked back and would lead to very conservative projections all around, in the end it is all relative. So why not project no RBs to be injured, and base it more on situation/schedule and all the other factors.I agree DWill won't match last years numbers, but I don't see him just falling off the map. With a healthier Stewart, I'd hope both RBs remain fresher. There are too many conditions as you listed that could factor in, and you can't predict those, and I could argue each one with the exact opposite.What if Stewart goes down in game one, what if Carolina is playing teams that are weaker (or injury riddled when carolina plays them), what if they get more possessions, what if the weather is perfect each game...etc. No way to gauge that. I don't think anyone is predicting DWill to have 400 carries and run for 2000 yards, but he's always had an above avg ypc, and took full advantage of the opportunity given to him last year, and probably had a career year.

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I think we are mostly saying the same think. If we use Wililams career average of 5.1 ypc and his rushing TD scoring rate of 1 TD every 23.3 carries (along with the same logic for his receiving totals) . . .275 carries, 1400 yards, 12 rushing TD25 receptions, 200 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD238 fantasy points(I picked 275 carries as he is in a job share and that number felt reasonable.) And I would suggest that that would be a reasonable projection for a healthy Williams. That would probably rank him 6th or 7th if he did produce those numbers.

Carter_Can_Fly said:

I see Stewart as a much more conventional goaline back and him getting a lot more of those looks.

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Williams had a lot of TDs last year inside the 5. That might have been when Stewart was injured, but I still think Williams is tougher to defend. If Stewart's in, you know it's going up the gut.rush TDs from the: 4, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1 + a 4 yard rec TD

David Yudkin said:

Williams had a 5.5 ypc . . . and as I already mentioned no one has ever done that in back-to-back years with at least 250 carries in a season.Williams scored 16 times over an 8-game stretch. I don't want to scramble and see how often that that's ever happened, but it's rare for a RB to be able to sustain that across an entire season.Williams had almost 1,000 yards rushing in the second have of the season and almost had 200 carries in the process. Not many backs have had 2,000 uard seasons or 400 carries in a season. I'm not saying that he can't do it, only that it would be quite a feat.

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I don't understand why you're doubling his second half production.

Kool-Aid Larry said:

David Yudkin said:

Williams had a 5.5 ypc . . . and as I already mentioned no one has ever done that in back-to-back years with at least 250 carries in a season.Williams scored 16 times over an 8-game stretch. I don't want to scramble and see how often that that's ever happened, but it's rare for a RB to be able to sustain that across an entire season.Williams had almost 1,000 yards rushing in the second have of the season and almost had 200 carries in the process. Not many backs have had 2,000 uard seasons or 400 carries in a season. I'm not saying that he can't do it, only that it would be quite a feat.

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I don't understand why you're doubling his second half production.

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I personally don't think that will happen, but I believe someone in the thread indicated that he could perfrom like he did at the end of the season last year and keep that up throughout this upcoming year.

oic.

Well, if someone wants to peg him at 400 carries for 2k yds and 30+ TDs, I think that's pretty much a #1 pick.

I think he was pretty safely the #1 RB in my ppr redraft at only 274 carries for 1.5k yds and 20 TDs, though.

I've noticed in a lot of these discussions you write off superior production to 'perfect storms' and 'flukes' a lot, usually predicting 'regression to the mean', yet in the Welker spotlight thread you commented that we had found his baseline.

Do you generally ignore a player's production until he does it several years in a row, and if this is the case, how do you ever get the jump on the others in your league?

If guys who have the big years only do so due to perfect storms, then how do you ever predict big years?

edit: rolling into 2008, did you think Welker's 2007 was a flukey perfect storm, or baseline?

Kool-Aid Larry said:

oic.Well, if someone wants to peg him at 400 carries for 2k yds and 30+ TDs, I think that's pretty much a #1 pick.I think he was pretty safely the #1 RB in my ppr redraft at only 274 carries for 1.5k yds and 20 TDs, though.I've noticed in a lot of these discussions you write off superior production to 'perfect storms' and 'flukes' a lot, usually predicting 'regression to the mean', yet in the Welker spotlight thread you commented that we had found his baseline.Do you generally ignore a player's production until he does it several years in a row, and if this is the case, how do you ever get the jump on the others in your league?If guys who have the big years only do so due to perfect storms, then how do you ever predict big years?edit: rolling into 2008, did you think Welker's 2007 was a flukey perfect storm, or baseline?

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This is very complicated to answer and a lot will depend on how everyone develops insight into the upcoming season.For example, I see a lot of rankings and projections that assume everyone is healthy for the duration of the season. So there could be say 25 RBs with 1500 total yards and double digit TDs. IMO, that's not ever going to happen in reality so why bother to predict players having seasons they likely won't have?Other folks take a more conservative approach and assume players will play in only 14 or 15 games and their numbers will obviously be lower.If I have a pet peeve, it's when people "nail" their production. Say they predicted PLAYER X would have 1550 total yards and 12 TD. That's great that that happened. But while that projection may have been spot on, if in reality that playeer ranked 7th, the person making that projection may have had PLAYER X ranked 19th by overprojecting all players stats. IMO, even though the end result was accurate, I think that overall that was not a great projection.I also don't like plain rankings, as most times there are a number of players that end up scoring in similar tiers that where they actually "ranked" is mostly irrelevant. For example, if there were a total of 8 fantasy points seperating 8 wide receivers, who really cares if one ranked 17th or 25th? One dropped TD could have swung PLAYER X by as many as 10 spots in the rankings.So I generally think the tiering approach is the best way to organize player projections. I personally do take into account a risk factor or likelihood of injury. Brian Westbrook, for example, has yet to play in 16 games, so projecting him to play every game seems counter productive.As for Welker, two years ago I swung the flag around here that Welker was WAY flying under the radar. I drafted or even waiver claimed him in all of my leagues and called out the other FBG staff guys that they were not even close on him. I mentioned all the talk locally about him having 100+ receptions and the staff consensus had him in the 30-40 range. I guessed 90. I also spelled out in the message board threads that I could see the Pats throwing for 4500 yards and 40 TD that year and people had a good laugh at that one, especially given how average the offense looked in 2006.Last year, the FBG brethren on a whole had Welker dropping to like 80 receptions and at that point I again suggested that he would be in the 90-100 range. Once Brady went down, I pointed out to many people that Moss would be the one getting the short end and that Welker's stock might go up or at the least stay the same given the adaptation of the dink and dunk passing attack.Part of the analysis process for Welker that is different than Wililams is that Welker was going to a new team and thus had no baseline in his current environment. As I tried explaining earl;ier in this thread, the more times someone does something the more he should be considered to establish that as a baseline.Should Williams go out and average 5.5 ypc and score 20 TD again, yes, his projections should be closer to that for 2010. But for now I would consider his prior performance and recent performance and conclude that he will not do that again.In Welker's case, his stats in Miami are pretty much meaningless at this point, as he twice has had monster reception totals in NE. I generally would take a somewhat conservative approach to projections, so I would again guesstimate only 95-100 catches for Welker this year . . . but I wouldn't have other players projected more than that either. So he would be at the top of my projections scale. Like you have touched upon already, I like to factor in some of those "things happen during the year" to my rankings and projections to reduce them somewhat but I consider that for everyone. If things went great the year before, I might knock something off. If things didn't work out the year before, I might add something in.As for your question as how to predict big years, the devil's in the details and the research. In reviewing the Cardinals situation and the on-field performance of the players in question, IN THE OFF SEASON I concluded that Kurt Warner would be a Top 5 QB for 2008 . . . but I concluded that at the end of 2007. I had Warner ranked 3rd or 4th when the site opened for the 2008 preason . . . when Leinart was still the starter. I also mentioned many times that Boldin had a higher ppg average than Fitz when the two played with Warner and would take Boldin later on than Fitz early on. That played out until Boldin got his clock cleaned.Over the years, I have also suggested some interesting player choices (like picking up Gates when he was a complete unknown). I also suggested a few years back drafting both Priest and LJ and worse case starting both of them as they would be productive enough on their own to warrant it.So long story short, there is a method to the madness even if sometimes it may not appear to be . . .

David, you don't have to defend youself to anyone. Whether you hit or miss on a player (s), your insight, analysis and thought you bring to a discussion is always welcome. It is not as if you are throwing darts. You obviously do your home work and research into a player when tiering/ranking them. Thanks.

Carter_Can_Fly said:

David, you don't have to defend youself to anyone. Whether you hit or miss on a player (s), your insight, analysis and thought you bring to a discussion is always welcome. It is not as if you are throwing darts. You obviously do your home work and research into a player when tiering/ranking them. Thanks.

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Larry's the new kid on the street, so he doesn't really know much about me. Figured I'd explain a little about the process I go through.

Haha....I don't know how this derailed into the Spotlight: David Yudkin thread, but you guys can relax --- David's not on trial here. I'm more interested in doping out Deangelo, since he's been my guy the last couple years, and my redraft'll be random order.

I might need to make the tough decision on him this year, rather than one of those somewhat easier 5th/6th round calls, so I can use all the input I can get --- I'm really on the fence.

Specifically, I'm interested in when a guy in a somewhat new situation puts up #'s because of 'perfect storms', or simply superior means, which is why I brought up the Welker question, if I could get back to that.

Congrats, by the way, on all those good calls, David.

So, anyway, I looked up last year's Welker spotlight, and you've got him pegged at 90 catches, which isn't exactly pimping him off a 112 catch season. That's a pretty substantial knock considering his real value is ppr, and the question is whether he can maintain that '07 production, maybe even improve on it, or 'regress to the mean' --- the mean in this case being a historical sample of other players at his position, I guess.

Flipping it around, if I had him pegged for 134 catches (PLUS 22) that probably would've seemed crazy high.

To frame it in another perspective, he was tied for tops in the league in '07 at 112 receptions, while there were 12 guys who managed 87+ catches, 10 of those guys bagging 7+ TDs, so it's a fairly substantial ppr swing, and somewhat mirrors this discussion about Deangelo.

A year later, Welker's 'perfect storm' production of '07 has been downgraded to 'baseline' with the added data from '08.

While added data will clearly help dope out the mean that a player's performance revolves around, waiting for the end of a guy's career is also clearly not an option when the draft approaches, so we all have to make these decisions in advance on very limited data.

Which brings me back to the question of 'regression to the mean' --- how much of the 'mean' is represented by a player's performance last year, and how much by historical sampling of other players at his position?

Kool-Aid Larry said:

Haha....I don't know how this derailed into the Spotlight: David Yudkin thread, but you guys can relax --- David's not on trial here. I'm more interested in doping out Deangelo, since he's been my guy the last couple years, and my redraft'll be random order.I might need to make the tough decision on him this year, rather than one of those somewhat easier 5th/6th round calls, so I can use all the input I can get --- I'm really on the fence.Specifically, I'm interested in when a guy in a somewhat new situation puts up #'s because of 'perfect storms', or simply superior means, which is why I brought up the Welker question, if I could get back to that.Congrats, by the way, on all those good calls, David.So, anyway, I looked up last year's Welker spotlight, and you've got him pegged at 90 catches, which isn't exactly pimping him off a 112 catch season. That's a pretty substantial knock considering his real value is ppr, and the question is whether he can maintain that '07 production, maybe even improve on it, or 'regress to the mean' --- the mean in this case being a historical sample of other players at his position, I guess.Flipping it around, if I had him pegged for 134 catches (PLUS 22) that probably would've seemed crazy high.To frame it in another perspective, he was tied for tops in the league in '07 at 112 receptions, while there were 12 guys who managed 87+ catches, 10 of those guys bagging 7+ TDs, so it's a fairly substantial ppr swing, and somewhat mirrors this discussion about Deangelo.A year later, Welker's 'perfect storm' production of '07 has been downgraded to 'baseline' with the added data from '08.While added data will clearly help dope out the mean that a player's performance revolves around, waiting for the end of a guy's career is also clearly not an option when the draft approaches, so we all have to make these decisions in advance on very limited data.Which brings me back to the question of 'regression to the mean' --- how much of the 'mean' is represented by a player's performance last year, and how much by historical sampling of other players at his position?

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As a general rule of thumb, I look at the past three seasons of data as a sample size and adjust for changes. Clearly Welker in MIA was a lot different than Welker in NE, so at that point it's mostly guess work. I find that looking at the results and then using that as a baseline to tweak results in more accurate projections.Obviously, the better someone does, the higher his numbers will be in that evaluation process. The more years he does it for, the higher the numbers will turn out to be.

Chicago Hooligan said:

Carter_Can_Fly said:

I see Stewart as a much more conventional goaline back and him getting a lot more of those looks.

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Williams had a lot of TDs last year inside the 5. That might have been when Stewart was injured, but I still think Williams is tougher to defend. If Stewart's in, you know it's going up the gut.rush TDs from the: 4, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1 + a 4 yard rec TD

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Four of those 1yd TDs are a direct result of Smith getting tackled at the 1. That has to be a glitch in the matrix or something. Fluky things like that alone could account for a big drop in TDs for Williams this year. TDs are hard to predict that's why you'll never see a FBG projection with 20 TDs for a RB. Or has there been?

puckalicious said:

Chicago Hooligan said:

Carter_Can_Fly said:

I see Stewart as a much more conventional goaline back and him getting a lot more of those looks.

Click to expand...

Williams had a lot of TDs last year inside the 5. That might have been when Stewart was injured, but I still think Williams is tougher to defend. If Stewart's in, you know it's going up the gut.rush TDs from the: 4, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1 + a 4 yard rec TD

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Four of those 1yd TDs are a direct result of Smith getting tackled at the 1. That has to be a glitch in the matrix or something. Fluky things like that alone could account for a big drop in TDs for Williams this year. TDs are hard to predict that's why you'll never see a FBG projection with 20 TDs for a RB. Or has there been?

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The issue that you're quoting, however, isn't HOW he got those short TD runs. It was as a response to someone thinking that Stewart would be the goalline RB. The fact that Smith got tackled at the 1 isn't that important to that discussion. The fact that DeAngelo was put in at the 1 and punched it in is. So, while those fluky tackles may have inflated his TD totals last year, it demonstrates quite clearly that Stewart is NOT the default goalline RB and that DeAngelo is quite capable of performing that task himself.

I won't say too much here because the topic I think has been well covered in other threads. Just wanted to comment on the perfect storm theory for Williams and Carolina last year.

The questions was posed as to what things came together last season that contributed to Williams and the Panthers running offense exploding?

1. Williams finaly mastered the pass protection schemes enough to get significantly more carries than he had before. I do not see him regressing on this.

2. The Pathers offensive line performed at a higher level than they have in the past. This may be why Williams 2nd half was stronger than the 1st half. I think this improvement is stable and do not expect decline.

3. The 1 year wonder concern. I share a similar philosophy about this. I want to see how a player performs for 2 years before I feel like I can have a lot of confidence in projecting them. Williams isn't a 1 year wonder any more than Turner is however. We knew both of these RB had talent because of how they performed in previous seasons. We just had not seen either get such a substaintal workload before. So I do not see that as the same risk/concern as it would be for a player who came out of no where to have 1 good season so far.

DeAngelo Williams will somehow be great value again. Mostly because of peoples feelings about Stewart.

Link to further discussion on Williams: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...amp;hl=Williams

Ministry of Pain said:

WOW...let's resume cabin pressure. In 2006 Panthers threw it 538 times, 2007-505, and in 2008-414..they have nowhere to go but up from there. In 2006 Panthers ran it 389 times, 2007-406, and last year 475...they have nowhere to go but down from there. Forget about ypc and that nonsense although they went from 4.0 to 5.0 in 1 season. If you believe the Panthers will throw it about 50 times more this season which is only 3 more attempts per game, and deduct 50 rushes you get 425 carries. DWill gets about 240 and JStew about 160-180.DWill: 240-1150-10TDs, and 30-200-1TD1350-1500 total yds and maybe 10-12 TDs would be a decent range for him. Nowhere near the RB1 spot again.

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MOP, I usually find myself agreeing with your opinions on most players, but this one I'm not so sure about. I don't agree with your opinion that the Panthers will throw it more "because they can't throw it less". What has happened since last year that would suggest to you they will throw it more and run it less? No QB upgrade, no WR upgrade, same coaches and same dominant RBs, and a very solid defense that only improved through the draft. If anything, I would argue that the success they had as a team in 2008 by COMMITTING to the run would suggest they will be running it just as much and possibly more.Wow, I think I just talked myself into moving DeAngelo up my board a few more spots.

gianmarco said:

puckalicious said:

Chicago Hooligan said:

Carter_Can_Fly said:

I see Stewart as a much more conventional goaline back and him getting a lot more of those looks.

Click to expand...

Williams had a lot of TDs last year inside the 5. That might have been when Stewart was injured, but I still think Williams is tougher to defend. If Stewart's in, you know it's going up the gut.rush TDs from the: 4, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1 + a 4 yard rec TD

Click to expand...

Four of those 1yd TDs are a direct result of Smith getting tackled at the 1. That has to be a glitch in the matrix or something. Fluky things like that alone could account for a big drop in TDs for Williams this year. TDs are hard to predict that's why you'll never see a FBG projection with 20 TDs for a RB. Or has there been?

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The issue that you're quoting, however, isn't HOW he got those short TD runs. It was as a response to someone thinking that Stewart would be the goalline RB. The fact that Smith got tackled at the 1 isn't that important to that discussion. The fact that DeAngelo was put in at the 1 and punched it in is. So, while those fluky tackles may have inflated his TD totals last year, it demonstrates quite clearly that Stewart is NOT the default goalline RB and that DeAngelo is quite capable of performing that task himself.

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Haven't the coaches already told us they rotate Williams/Stewart frequently? That to me says they have NO default goal line back. Whoever is already in there stays in unless tired/dinged up. I think most of those 1yd TDs last year happened when Stewart was a little dinged up?I agree that Stewart is not the default GL back, but neither is Williams.

Day Drinker said:

Ministry of Pain said:

WOW...let's resume cabin pressure. In 2006 Panthers threw it 538 times, 2007-505, and in 2008-414..they have nowhere to go but up from there. In 2006 Panthers ran it 389 times, 2007-406, and last year 475...they have nowhere to go but down from there. Forget about ypc and that nonsense although they went from 4.0 to 5.0 in 1 season. If you believe the Panthers will throw it about 50 times more this season which is only 3 more attempts per game, and deduct 50 rushes you get 425 carries. DWill gets about 240 and JStew about 160-180.DWill: 240-1150-10TDs, and 30-200-1TD1350-1500 total yds and maybe 10-12 TDs would be a decent range for him. Nowhere near the RB1 spot again.

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MOP, I usually find myself agreeing with your opinions on most players, but this one I'm not so sure about. I don't agree with your opinion that the Panthers will throw it more "because they can't throw it less". What has happened since last year that would suggest to you they will throw it more and run it less? No QB upgrade, no WR upgrade, same coaches and same dominant RBs, and a very solid defense that only improved through the draft. If anything, I would argue that the success they had as a team in 2008 by COMMITTING to the run would suggest they will be running it just as much and possibly more.Wow, I think I just talked myself into moving DeAngelo up my board a few more spots.

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Law of large numbers to me suggests that they will not throw nearly as little this season. Much tougher schedule and a division that will likely have 2 high octane offense in it with Atlanta and NO, that's 4 games right there i bet Delhomme has to chuck it at least 30-35 times to keep pace. 414-140=274/12 games leftover...you really can't see them rising up about 50 attempts? Trust me, I'll bet the house they throw more attempts this season, I'll bet anyone that they throw more than 414 times this season. I appreciate your post, thanks.

Ministry of Pain said:

Law of large numbers to me suggests that they will not throw nearly as little this season. Much tougher schedule and a division that will likely have 2 high octane offense in it with Atlanta and NO, that's 4 games right there i bet Delhomme has to chuck it at least 30-35 times to keep pace. 414-140=274/12 games leftover...

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ummmmm....did they change divisions?

Ministry of Pain said:

Day Drinker said:

Ministry of Pain said:

WOW...let's resume cabin pressure. In 2006 Panthers threw it 538 times, 2007-505, and in 2008-414..they have nowhere to go but up from there. In 2006 Panthers ran it 389 times, 2007-406, and last year 475...they have nowhere to go but down from there. Forget about ypc and that nonsense although they went from 4.0 to 5.0 in 1 season. If you believe the Panthers will throw it about 50 times more this season which is only 3 more attempts per game, and deduct 50 rushes you get 425 carries. DWill gets about 240 and JStew about 160-180.DWill: 240-1150-10TDs, and 30-200-1TD1350-1500 total yds and maybe 10-12 TDs would be a decent range for him. Nowhere near the RB1 spot again.

Click to expand...

MOP, I usually find myself agreeing with your opinions on most players, but this one I'm not so sure about. I don't agree with your opinion that the Panthers will throw it more "because they can't throw it less". What has happened since last year that would suggest to you they will throw it more and run it less? No QB upgrade, no WR upgrade, same coaches and same dominant RBs, and a very solid defense that only improved through the draft. If anything, I would argue that the success they had as a team in 2008 by COMMITTING to the run would suggest they will be running it just as much and possibly more.Wow, I think I just talked myself into moving DeAngelo up my board a few more spots.

Click to expand...

Law of large numbers to me suggests that they will not throw nearly as little this season. Much tougher schedule and a division that will likely have 2 high octane offense in it with Atlanta and NO, that's 4 games right there i bet Delhomme has to chuck it at least 30-35 times to keep pace. 414-140=274/12 games leftover...you really can't see them rising up about 50 attempts? Trust me, I'll bet the house they throw more attempts this season, I'll bet anyone that they throw more than 414 times this season. I appreciate your post, thanks.

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IMO if they throw more, they lose more. When playing high octane offenses, the best defense is a solid running game. But it will be fun following the NFC South battle again this year.

Carolina played 6 games against top 10 passing offenses (SD, DEN, ARIZ, GB, NOX2). Carolina ran the ball over 30 times per game in those 6 games.

D-Will was great last year and I still like his prospects for this year but I don't see him as a top 5 guy as long as Stewart is looming. If something were to happen to Stewart (or if he can't kick this ankle problem) the sky would be the limit. The only thing holding him back is splitting carries.

I do think he'll be the starter. I just don't see getting 300 carries and that's a # that I would want my #1 pick to get

240 carries

1200 yards

11 td's

32 catches

250 yards

0 td's

1450 and 11td's isn't a horrible year by any means

I love Carolina's rushing attack. I think Stewart could hit 1,000 as well.

Kool-Aid Larry said:

Ministry of Pain said:

Law of large numbers to me suggests that they will not throw nearly as little this season. Much tougher schedule and a division that will likely have 2 high octane offense in it with Atlanta and NO, that's 4 games right there i bet Delhomme has to chuck it at least 30-35 times to keep pace. 414-140=274/12 games leftover...

Click to expand...

ummmmm....did they change divisions?

Click to expand...

No...they're NFC South: CAR, NO, ATL, TBBDo you know how stupid that comment was?Anyways....I love me some Steve Smith in redrafts...especially since it has been pointed out that he did get tackled right before the endzone a strange amount of times last year, unlikely to occur again.Translation of that statement to this spotlight is to say that: Touchdowns are volatile and I really don't think we see Williams score that many again. ALTHOUGH they could just score more points period. Why do we all assume that they won't just add more points? Williams could easily have an amazing season, and Stewart a serviceable one. What happens if ATL falters b/c of a beaten down Turner and a Soph Slump Ryan? Those 2 games become cakewalks against ATL. What about TBB? Freeman could potentially get thrown into the fire, in which case there are more protect-the-lead runs. There are simply too many variables to worry about here, and you have to just look at what we do know:1. Williams was an absolute BEAST the second half last year.2. We have all had him pegged as high end talent since he was drafted.3. Fox definitely has shown favoritism to his vets, like Davis and Foster.4. CAR has a pretty good defense, and should often be in games that they are either close or ahead in.5. #4 situations usually lead to running.6. They don't have much of a viable #2 WR, so they probably will run a lot and get Steve Smith his catches, but they most likely look to run first.That said, I would take DeAngelo after these guys:Adrian PetersonChris JohnsonMaurice Jones-Drew (who I definitely back up with Jennings)and I'd have to think about going for him or Steven Jackson or Steve Slaton (who gets no love here) or possibly Gore.So I'd have him between RB4 and RB7. Can anybody say he is NOT a safe pick? Outside of freak injury, there are almost no reasons he won't produce RB1 numbers, if you think he won't be top 5. How many poeple have that going for them?

Instinctive said:

Kool-Aid Larry said:

Ministry of Pain said:

Law of large numbers to me suggests that they will not throw nearly as little this season. Much tougher schedule and a division that will likely have 2 high octane offense in it with Atlanta and NO, that's 4 games right there i bet Delhomme has to chuck it at least 30-35 times to keep pace. 414-140=274/12 games leftover...

Click to expand...

ummmmm....did they change divisions?

Click to expand...

No...they're NFC South: CAR, NO, ATL, TBBDo you know how stupid that comment was?

Anyways....

I love me some Steve Smith in redrafts...especially since it has been pointed out that he did get tackled right before the endzone a strange amount of times last year, unlikely to occur again.

Translation of that statement to this spotlight is to say that: Touchdowns are volatile and I really don't think we see Williams score that many again. ALTHOUGH they could just score more points period. Why do we all assume that they won't just add more points? Williams could easily have an amazing season, and Stewart a serviceable one.

What happens if ATL falters b/c of a beaten down Turner and a Soph Slump Ryan? Those 2 games become cakewalks against ATL. What about TBB? Freeman could potentially get thrown into the fire, in which case there are more protect-the-lead runs.

There are simply too many variables to worry about here, and you have to just look at what we do know:

1. Williams was an absolute BEAST the second half last year.

2. We have all had him pegged as high end talent since he was drafted.

3. Fox definitely has shown favoritism to his vets, like Davis and Foster.

4. CAR has a pretty good defense, and should often be in games that they are either close or ahead in.

5. #4 situations usually lead to running.

6. They don't have much of a viable #2 WR, so they probably will run a lot and get Steve Smith his catches, but they most likely look to run first.

That said, I would take DeAngelo after these guys:

Adrian Peterson

Chris Johnson

Maurice Jones-Drew (who I definitely back up with Jennings)

and I'd have to think about going for him or Steven Jackson or Steve Slaton (who gets no love here) or possibly Gore.

So I'd have him between RB4 and RB7. Can anybody say he is NOT a safe pick? Outside of freak injury, there are almost no reasons he won't produce RB1 numbers, if you think he won't be top 5. How many poeple have that going for them?

Click to expand...

You misunderstood his comment. If NO and ATL are such prolific offenses that DeAngelo wouldn't get touches this upcoming year, why didn't his four games against those teams affect his touches last year. They didn't switch divisions was his point.

boubucarow said:

Instinctive said:

Kool-Aid Larry said:

Ministry of Pain said:

Law of large numbers to me suggests that they will not throw nearly as little this season. Much tougher schedule and a division that will likely have 2 high octane offense in it with Atlanta and NO, that's 4 games right there i bet Delhomme has to chuck it at least 30-35 times to keep pace. 414-140=274/12 games leftover...

Click to expand...

ummmmm....did they change divisions?

Click to expand...

No...they're NFC South: CAR, NO, ATL, TBBDo you know how stupid that comment was?

Anyways....

I love me some Steve Smith in redrafts...especially since it has been pointed out that he did get tackled right before the endzone a strange amount of times last year, unlikely to occur again.

Translation of that statement to this spotlight is to say that: Touchdowns are volatile and I really don't think we see Williams score that many again. ALTHOUGH they could just score more points period. Why do we all assume that they won't just add more points? Williams could easily have an amazing season, and Stewart a serviceable one.

What happens if ATL falters b/c of a beaten down Turner and a Soph Slump Ryan? Those 2 games become cakewalks against ATL. What about TBB? Freeman could potentially get thrown into the fire, in which case there are more protect-the-lead runs.

There are simply too many variables to worry about here, and you have to just look at what we do know:

1. Williams was an absolute BEAST the second half last year.

2. We have all had him pegged as high end talent since he was drafted.

3. Fox definitely has shown favoritism to his vets, like Davis and Foster.

4. CAR has a pretty good defense, and should often be in games that they are either close or ahead in.

5. #4 situations usually lead to running.

6. They don't have much of a viable #2 WR, so they probably will run a lot and get Steve Smith his catches, but they most likely look to run first.

That said, I would take DeAngelo after these guys:

Adrian Peterson

Chris Johnson

Maurice Jones-Drew (who I definitely back up with Jennings)

and I'd have to think about going for him or Steven Jackson or Steve Slaton (who gets no love here) or possibly Gore.

So I'd have him between RB4 and RB7. Can anybody say he is NOT a safe pick? Outside of freak injury, there are almost no reasons he won't produce RB1 numbers, if you think he won't be top 5. How many poeple have that going for them?

Click to expand...

You misunderstood his comment. If NO and ATL are such prolific offenses that DeAngelo wouldn't get touches this upcoming year, why didn't his four games against those teams affect his touches last year. They didn't switch divisions was his point.

Click to expand...

I love how that's all you pick out. I guess what I meant was, Do you know how stupid and irrelevant and unhelpful to the discussion comments like that are? If you can;t contribute anything why not just refrain from posting that kind of offensive junk.../endrant

Instinctive said:

boubucarow said:

Instinctive said:

Kool-Aid Larry said:

Ministry of Pain said:

Law of large numbers to me suggests that they will not throw nearly as little this season. Much tougher schedule and a division that will likely have 2 high octane offense in it with Atlanta and NO, that's 4 games right there i bet Delhomme has to chuck it at least 30-35 times to keep pace. 414-140=274/12 games leftover...

Click to expand...

ummmmm....did they change divisions?

Click to expand...

No...they're NFC South: CAR, NO, ATL, TBBDo you know how stupid that comment was?

Anyways....

I love me some Steve Smith in redrafts...especially since it has been pointed out that he did get tackled right before the endzone a strange amount of times last year, unlikely to occur again.

Translation of that statement to this spotlight is to say that: Touchdowns are volatile and I really don't think we see Williams score that many again. ALTHOUGH they could just score more points period. Why do we all assume that they won't just add more points? Williams could easily have an amazing season, and Stewart a serviceable one.

What happens if ATL falters b/c of a beaten down Turner and a Soph Slump Ryan? Those 2 games become cakewalks against ATL. What about TBB? Freeman could potentially get thrown into the fire, in which case there are more protect-the-lead runs.

There are simply too many variables to worry about here, and you have to just look at what we do know:

1. Williams was an absolute BEAST the second half last year.

2. We have all had him pegged as high end talent since he was drafted.

3. Fox definitely has shown favoritism to his vets, like Davis and Foster.

4. CAR has a pretty good defense, and should often be in games that they are either close or ahead in.

5. #4 situations usually lead to running.

6. They don't have much of a viable #2 WR, so they probably will run a lot and get Steve Smith his catches, but they most likely look to run first.

That said, I would take DeAngelo after these guys:

Adrian Peterson

Chris Johnson

Maurice Jones-Drew (who I definitely back up with Jennings)

and I'd have to think about going for him or Steven Jackson or Steve Slaton (who gets no love here) or possibly Gore.

So I'd have him between RB4 and RB7. Can anybody say he is NOT a safe pick? Outside of freak injury, there are almost no reasons he won't produce RB1 numbers, if you think he won't be top 5. How many poeple have that going for them?

Click to expand...

You misunderstood his comment. If NO and ATL are such prolific offenses that DeAngelo wouldn't get touches this upcoming year, why didn't his four games against those teams affect his touches last year. They didn't switch divisions was his point.

Click to expand...

I love how that's all you pick out. I guess what I meant was, Do you know how stupid and irrelevant and unhelpful to the discussion comments like that are? If you can;t contribute anything why not just refrain from posting that kind of offensive junk.../endrant

Click to expand...

You clearly misunderstand a post and its underlying point, then comment on how stupid the post was. I merely clarify the point of the comment and how it contributes to the discussion and I am called offensive. Not sure how that happens.