Player Spotlight: Vincent Jackson (1 Viewer)

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Vincent Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Even accounting for Chambers missing some time last season, I don't think Jackson's receptions will change much this year. Chambers could easily improve on last season without being a detriment IMO, but I think he'll underwhelm yet again this year.

Jackson is the deep threat and nobody on the team is better at it as far as I can tell so I don't expect his totals this year to be very different than last year.

60/1100/7

WR2 going for WR3/4 price yet again.

be wary of a pending DUI case. could face possible suspension.

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

be wary of a pending DUI case. could face possible suspension.

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2 games if at all. And those 2 games would be against Oak and Bal. LT always tears it up against the Raiders so no need to ramp up the passing game, and Bal is always a tuff defense. After that it's smooth sailing!Numbers continue to rise...especially in his contract year!65-1200-8

I see VJax taking a small step back.....with Gates/LT/Chambers all healthy I see VJax seeing less targets in 2009....

50/800/5

VJax had a breakthough year in 2008. A lot of things contributed to that breakout year

1) Rivers had a career year

2) LT was hurt for much of the year, so the running game was not as effective.

3) Gates and Chambers were hurt for much of the year.

So VJax had to step up, and he did. But I see SD going back to running the football....a more balanced offense similar to years before 2008. I think Jackson is a little overvalued at this point, especially in PPR leagues.

68 rec, 1000 yds, 7 TD

The SD team is changing before our very eyes, LT is getting older and I think with the emergence last year of Rivers that the Chargers will become a more pass oriented team. The continuing development of Jackson last year was dependent upon him getting opportunity, he got it and produced. The chargers know what they have in VJ and will continue to give him opportunities. His 6'5 height makes his a premiere red zone target.

I think VJ is the WR to own in a dynasty and after this year Chambers will be let go and he will be the #1 guy in SD. Gates is getting older and over the last few years has struggled with injuries, this also plays in VJ's favor.

Prediction 1100 Yards 80 Rec. 10TD (bold but I really like this guy).

I don't see a huge fantasy year from Jackson. Consider that he only had 101 targets last season. You can look at that number and assume that if he put up 60/1100/7 on 101 targets, his numbers will rise as they trust him more and he gets more targets, but I think the Chargers will continue to spread the ball around, Malcolm Floyd should be back (and many people believe he's as talented -- or more talented -- than Jackson), and I don't know that you'll see the targets rise, and it's unlikely that he'll squeeze out that sort of production from 100 or so targets again.

My prediction:

58 receptions, 945 yards, 6 td's

I've posted a lot about the Chargers offense and its WRs, so I'm going to try to condense some of that here.

Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:

1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.

2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.

3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.

Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.

So what does all of that have to do with Jackson? Mainly that I do not believe there will be fewer overall opportunities in the Chargers passing game. Some have suggested a shift back to a more balanced offense will limit Jackson's targets, but I think there is plenty of room for the Chargers to run a lot more while at the same time throwing more. After all, the Chargers were only #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.

That said, I do think the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:

1. The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.

2. Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.

3. Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis combined for only 119 targets last season... that could easily go up with better health, since all but Naanee missed time due to injuries.

4. In particular, Floyd played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on just 37 targets. I really like Floyd's prospects this year. I think putting Gates, Jackson, and Floyd on the field at the same time really puts pressure on the defense.

I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season. Meanwhile, I think the RBs and TEs will collectively get about as many targets as they did last year. So I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets.

The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often (like I said, maybe up to 500 attempts, but hard to see more than that). I will say that if disaster struck and Tomlinson went down early for the season, I could see the offense swinging much more heavily to the pass, and there would be real value in this offense in that scenario.

Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):

1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)

2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr)

3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)

4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)

He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:

Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)

Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr)

Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)

Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)

Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)

62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. Not that this is necessarily unusual, since teams of course tend to pass more when behind. But it certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.

Finally, Jackson was very productive with 101 targets last season. Even if he gets more targets and/or catches, it is not a given that he will maintain the same productivity rate.

I'll project 96 targets, 56 receptions, 924 receiving yards, 7 TDs, assuming he plays 16 games.

perry147 said:

The SD team is changing before our very eyes, LT is getting older and I think with the emergence last year of Rivers that the Chargers will become a more pass oriented team. The continuing development of Jackson last year was dependent upon him getting opportunity, he got it and produced. The chargers know what they have in VJ and will continue to give him opportunities. His 6'5 height makes his a premiere red zone target.I think VJ is the WR to own in a dynasty and after this year Chambers will be let go and he will be the #1 guy in SD. Gates is getting older and over the last few years has struggled with injuries, this also plays in VJ's favor.Prediction 1100 Yards 80 Rec. 10TD (bold but I really like this guy).

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no one seems to want to admit that the Chargers have a lot of has-been players such as LT and Gates..Chambers is just an also-ran WR. Lest we forget that SD was trying to trade for Michael Bush before the draft so that shows you just how much faith they have in LT/Sproles. undoubtedly this is a pass oriented team now..VJ was tops in the NFL last season in ypc among WR's with 50+ recs.80/1376(17.2 per rec)/10especially considering the defensively-challenged AFC West, one could make the argument that VJ will do even better than this

Tanner9919 said:

perry147 said:

The SD team is changing before our very eyes, LT is getting older and I think with the emergence last year of Rivers that the Chargers will become a more pass oriented team. The continuing development of Jackson last year was dependent upon him getting opportunity, he got it and produced. The chargers know what they have in VJ and will continue to give him opportunities. His 6'5 height makes his a premiere red zone target.I think VJ is the WR to own in a dynasty and after this year Chambers will be let go and he will be the #1 guy in SD. Gates is getting older and over the last few years has struggled with injuries, this also plays in VJ's favor.Prediction 1100 Yards 80 Rec. 10TD (bold but I really like this guy).

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no one seems to want to admit that the Chargers have a lot of has-been players such as LT and Gates..Chambers is just an also-ran WR. Lest we forget that SD was trying to trade for Michael Bush before the draft so that shows you just how much faith they have in LT/Sproles. undoubtedly this is a pass oriented team now..VJ was tops in the NFL last season in ypc among WR's with 50+ recs.80/1376(17.2 per rec)/10especially considering the defensively-challenged AFC West, one could make the argument that VJ will do even better than this

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I wouldnt call Gates a has been.

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Tanner9919 said:

perry147 said:

The SD team is changing before our very eyes, LT is getting older and I think with the emergence last year of Rivers that the Chargers will become a more pass oriented team. The continuing development of Jackson last year was dependent upon him getting opportunity, he got it and produced. The chargers know what they have in VJ and will continue to give him opportunities. His 6'5 height makes his a premiere red zone target.I think VJ is the WR to own in a dynasty and after this year Chambers will be let go and he will be the #1 guy in SD. Gates is getting older and over the last few years has struggled with injuries, this also plays in VJ's favor.Prediction 1100 Yards 80 Rec. 10TD (bold but I really like this guy).

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no one seems to want to admit that the Chargers have a lot of has-been players such as LT and Gates..Chambers is just an also-ran WR. Lest we forget that SD was trying to trade for Michael Bush before the draft so that shows you just how much faith they have in LT/Sproles. undoubtedly this is a pass oriented team now..VJ was tops in the NFL last season in ypc among WR's with 50+ recs.80/1376(17.2 per rec)/10especially considering the defensively-challenged AFC West, one could make the argument that VJ will do even better than this

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I wouldnt call Gates a has been.

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But don't you think Gates is starting to wear down with injuries (especially the toe).

Last year all we heard was there wouldn't be enough touches to go around for VJax to be relevant and it feels like the same arguments this year. Gates and LT declined and it would not be surprising at all if they continued to slip further. Meanwhile, VJax has improved every year and turned into a game changer during the early '08 playoff run. I'm not ready call him the next Fitz or TO, but if the Chargers shift some of the offense to go through him as I suspect they will, we could be looking a low-end WR1.

70-1155-8

For those projecting more than 60 catches, and especially those projecting 80, I'm interested to know how many targets you expect Jackson to get, and where you think the extra targets (compared to last year) will come from.

Just Win Baby said:

For those projecting more than 60 catches, and especially those projecting 80, I'm interested to know how many targets you expect Jackson to get, and where you think the extra targets (compared to last year) will come from.

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More passing plays for the chargers offense. As I stated in my first post the SD offense is changing from a traditional run first LT lead attack to one in which the pass is far more prominent, and as I stated it is a bold prediction.

perry147 said:

Just Win Baby said:

For those projecting more than 60 catches, and especially those projecting 80, I'm interested to know how many targets you expect Jackson to get, and where you think the extra targets (compared to last year) will come from.

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More passing plays for the chargers offense. As I stated in my first post the SD offense is changing from a traditional run first LT lead attack to one in which the pass is far more prominent, and as I stated it is a bold prediction.

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So how many targets do you expect for Jackson and how many passing attempts are you projecting for San Diego? And, for that matter, how many rushing attempts?

I'm interested to see why folks think San Diego will "return to running the football"

guys, wake up. LT2 is old. He keeps breaking. He is broken during the playoffs each season. Don't you think the coaching staff wants to keep him fresh? San Diego ran their offense off of Rivers' arms and V-Jax's hands, and they produced marvelously. LT2 wasn't just "injured", he was

OLD

and now he's older.

He's slower.

He's more fragile.

Why would SD downgrade their offense? Everyone goes ape#### over Calvin Johnson's physical potential, V-Jax is the same size and damn near as fast.

Anyway, V-Jax 2009:

115 targets, 72 receptions, 1202 yards, 11 TDs

Just Win Baby said:

perry147 said:

Just Win Baby said:

For those projecting more than 60 catches, and especially those projecting 80, I'm interested to know how many targets you expect Jackson to get, and where you think the extra targets (compared to last year) will come from.

Click to expand...

More passing plays for the chargers offense. As I stated in my first post the SD offense is changing from a traditional run first LT lead attack to one in which the pass is far more prominent, and as I stated it is a bold prediction.

Click to expand...

So how many targets do you expect for Jackson and how many passing attempts are you projecting for San Diego? And, for that matter, how many rushing attempts?

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Regrettably I really have not gone down that deeply yet this early in the preseason, but I think this offense can support a 80 catch WR and that more importantly that is VJ not CC. Last year there were 15 WRs with 80 catches or more - I fit VJ into that tier/range. Remember this offense is changing.

sgtrobo said:

I'm interested to see why folks think San Diego will "return to running the football"

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A few reasons to think San Diego will run more often than last year:1. Norv Turner's history.2. Better health for Marcus McNeill.3. Better health for LT.4. Franchise tag on Sproles.5. Better defense.Note that I have already posted in this thread that I think San Diego will both run more often and pass more often than last season, because I think they'll run a lot more plays.

sgtrobo said:

Anyway, V-Jax 2009:115 targets, 72 receptions, 1202 yards, 11 TDs

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Are you aware that these numbers would have ranked Jackson as WR4 last season (FBG scoring)? So you're expecting Jackson to be a top 5 WR?

perry147 said:

Just Win Baby said:

perry147 said:

Just Win Baby said:

For those projecting more than 60 catches, and especially those projecting 80, I'm interested to know how many targets you expect Jackson to get, and where you think the extra targets (compared to last year) will come from.

Click to expand...

More passing plays for the chargers offense. As I stated in my first post the SD offense is changing from a traditional run first LT lead attack to one in which the pass is far more prominent, and as I stated it is a bold prediction.

Click to expand...

So how many targets do you expect for Jackson and how many passing attempts are you projecting for San Diego? And, for that matter, how many rushing attempts?

Click to expand...

Regrettably I really have not gone down that deeply yet this early in the preseason, but I think this offense can support a 80 catch WR and that more importantly that is VJ not CC. Last year there were 15 WRs with 80 catches or more - I fit VJ into that tier/range. Remember this offense is changing.

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I definitely think the offense will change over the next 2-3 years, as LT ages and declines. The passing game was so strong last season, it makes sense to shift more toward passing. So we are in agreement there. However, I think the change will be gradual this season, if LT is healthy. And the real issue IMO is that the Chargers have a lot of very strong targets in addition to Jackson.

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Tanner9919 said:

perry147 said:

The SD team is changing before our very eyes, LT is getting older and I think with the emergence last year of Rivers that the Chargers will become a more pass oriented team. The continuing development of Jackson last year was dependent upon him getting opportunity, he got it and produced. The chargers know what they have in VJ and will continue to give him opportunities. His 6'5 height makes his a premiere red zone target.I think VJ is the WR to own in a dynasty and after this year Chambers will be let go and he will be the #1 guy in SD. Gates is getting older and over the last few years has struggled with injuries, this also plays in VJ's favor.Prediction 1100 Yards 80 Rec. 10TD (bold but I really like this guy).

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no one seems to want to admit that the Chargers have a lot of has-been players such as LT and Gates..Chambers is just an also-ran WR. Lest we forget that SD was trying to trade for Michael Bush before the draft so that shows you just how much faith they have in LT/Sproles. undoubtedly this is a pass oriented team now..VJ was tops in the NFL last season in ypc among WR's with 50+ recs.80/1376(17.2 per rec)/10especially considering the defensively-challenged AFC West, one could make the argument that VJ will do even better than this

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I wouldnt call Gates a has been.

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He just turned 29 and played hurt last year and still played well (TE4 in fantasy terms). There is no reason to think he won't recover from the injury.

If he gets suspended he moves below Chad Johnson, Housh, Royal, Holmes, and Roy Williams.

If he does not he stays above them.

I'm not seeing the more pass-happy angle some are, I think they feel more comfortable passing the ball now than they did a couple years ago but they still have the best RB of the last decade, an electric #2, and two promising options on the bench. The defense should bounce back some this year allowing them to lean on the run a bit more than last year, I think this is one of the most balanced and explosive offenses in the league.

Jackson probably won't produce WR1 numbers, but in this offense he can come close. Guy's not just an exceptional athlete anymore.

Just Win Baby said:

sgtrobo said:

I'm interested to see why folks think San Diego will "return to running the football"

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A few reasons to think San Diego will run more often than last year:1. Norv Turner's history.2. Better health for Marcus McNeill.3. Better health for LT.4. Franchise tag on Sproles.5. Better defense.Note that I have already posted in this thread that I think San Diego will both run more often and pass more often than last season, because I think they'll run a lot more plays.

sgtrobo said:

Anyway, V-Jax 2009:115 targets, 72 receptions, 1202 yards, 11 TDs

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Are you aware that these numbers would have ranked Jackson as WR4 last season (FBG scoring)? So you're expecting Jackson to be a top 5 WR?

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Dont forget that hardwick missed at least 6 games and wasnt 100%. I think the Goff was declining and they love their 3rd round pick and he probably starts right away. RT Clary sucks though

Love the info in here as I also have been contemplating VJax's 09 potential. Anyways I think it's pretty obvious that we can take 1 thing out og the SD offense and that is that VJax has showed enough to surpass Chambers -who really has been irrelevant since 2005. Id also say that a healthy LT in the past has given Gates alot of room to make plays. Given LT's recent injuries is it possible defenses are bringing more guys closer to the LOS to tie up the RB's which also would affect Gates who does damage in short yardage, and allows deep threat guys like VJax to succeed?.. Gates is a stud but was also in a perfect situation for past 2-3 years having the a great QB, best RB in football and Keenan Mccardell to compete with for receptions.

**Put me down for 72 receptions, 975yds and 9TDS -GREAT W2 MATERIAL

also a contract year for Vjax if that matters to anyone

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

also a contract year for Vjax if that matters to anyone

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Drinen or somebody here showed that makes no difference whatsoever in how the player performs.

I just can't get behind the VJax train. I think that he has some talent, but just not significantly more than Chambers and even Floyd. I also think that the Chargers will use the running game more again in 09 as long as their RB options are not injured and I don't see a particular reason to decide pre-season that LT will be injured again. They also drafted a nice RB and will use Sproles in spots.

I think that the targets go up for Gates, Sproles, Tomlinson, and possibly Chambers and Floyd. I just don't see another increase for Jackson, reagrdless if he gets suspended or not. Very much the same production as last year, except a likely decrease in yards per catch.

Vincent Jackson 105 targets 60 catches 57% 960 yards 16.0 ypc 6 TDs

rzrback77 said:

I just can't get behind the VJax train. I think that he has some talent, but just not significantly more than Chambers and even Floyd. I also think that the Chargers will use the running game more again in 09 as long as their RB options are not injured and I don't see a particular reason to decide pre-season that LT will be injured again. They also drafted a nice RB and will use Sproles in spots.I think that the targets go up for Gates, Sproles, Tomlinson, and possibly Chambers and Floyd. I just don't see another increase for Jackson, reagrdless if he gets suspended or not. Very much the same production as last year, except a likely decrease in yards per catch.Vincent Jackson 105 targets 60 catches 57% 960 yards 16.0 ypc 6 TDs

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I think your projections are reasonable, but a couple of points on the rest of your post:1. Tomlinson and Sproles combined for 111 targets last season, more than 23% of the team's targets. Exactly how many do you think they are going to get this year?2. The Chargers ran a very low number of plays last season, so there is plenty of room for them to run a lot more without passing less. I posted about this earlier in the thread.

Just Win Baby said:

rzrback77 said:

I just can't get behind the VJax train. I think that he has some talent, but just not significantly more than Chambers and even Floyd. I also think that the Chargers will use the running game more again in 09 as long as their RB options are not injured and I don't see a particular reason to decide pre-season that LT will be injured again. They also drafted a nice RB and will use Sproles in spots.I think that the targets go up for Gates, Sproles, Tomlinson, and possibly Chambers and Floyd. I just don't see another increase for Jackson, reagrdless if he gets suspended or not. Very much the same production as last year, except a likely decrease in yards per catch.Vincent Jackson 105 targets 60 catches 57% 960 yards 16.0 ypc 6 TDs

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I think your projections are reasonable, but a couple of points on the rest of your post:1. Tomlinson and Sproles combined for 111 targets last season, more than 23% of the team's targets. Exactly how many do you think they are going to get this year?2. The Chargers ran a very low number of plays last season, so there is plenty of room for them to run a lot more without passing less. I posted about this earlier in the thread.

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1) Tomlinson had 86 targets in 08 and 80 in 07, both a little more than he saw last season. Sproles had 39 on the season, but added 16 in two playoff games (without LT) but they saw his effectiveness in the open field and I expect that to continue this year. Maybe the two of them have 130 combined targets for an increase of 10%. 2) I agree with you that they may very well be able to both run more and pass more if their defense improves. I just don't think that Jackson will see any of the increase in targets.

rzrback77 said:

Just Win Baby said:

rzrback77 said:

I just can't get behind the VJax train. I think that he has some talent, but just not significantly more than Chambers and even Floyd. I also think that the Chargers will use the running game more again in 09 as long as their RB options are not injured and I don't see a particular reason to decide pre-season that LT will be injured again. They also drafted a nice RB and will use Sproles in spots.I think that the targets go up for Gates, Sproles, Tomlinson, and possibly Chambers and Floyd. I just don't see another increase for Jackson, reagrdless if he gets suspended or not. Very much the same production as last year, except a likely decrease in yards per catch.Vincent Jackson 105 targets 60 catches 57% 960 yards 16.0 ypc 6 TDs

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I think your projections are reasonable, but a couple of points on the rest of your post:1. Tomlinson and Sproles combined for 111 targets last season, more than 23% of the team's targets. Exactly how many do you think they are going to get this year?2. The Chargers ran a very low number of plays last season, so there is plenty of room for them to run a lot more without passing less. I posted about this earlier in the thread.

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1) Tomlinson had 86 targets in 08 and 80 in 07, both a little more than he saw last season. Sproles had 39 on the season, but added 16 in two playoff games (without LT) but they saw his effectiveness in the open field and I expect that to continue this year. Maybe the two of them have 130 combined targets for an increase of 10%. 2) I agree with you that they may very well be able to both run more and pass more if their defense improves. I just don't think that Jackson will see any of the increase in targets.

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I agree that Sproles should see more targets. He averaged 11.8 ypr, which is really good for a RB. But because of that, I doubt Tomlinson's targets will go up, and, in fact, I suspect they will go down some. Hester and Tolbert combined for 27 targets last year, so that number may drop a bit.FWIW, our projections for Jackson are very close.

Just Win Baby said:

2. The Chargers ran a very low number of plays last season, so there is plenty of room for them to run a lot more without passing less. I posted about this earlier in the thread.

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#20 in plays, #2 in scoring.

FUBAR said:

Just Win Baby said:

2. The Chargers ran a very low number of plays last season, so there is plenty of room for them to run a lot more without passing less. I posted about this earlier in the thread.

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#20 in plays, #2 in scoring.

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Actually, the Chargers were #28 in offensive plays, with 924. Only Cleveland (921), Oakland (919), and Detroit (913) had fewer. Data from pro-football-reference.com.

Just Win Baby said:

I've posted a lot about the Chargers offense and its WRs, so I'm going to try to condense some of that here.Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.So what does all of that have to do with Jackson? Mainly that I do not believe there will be fewer overall opportunities in the Chargers passing game. Some have suggested a shift back to a more balanced offense will limit Jackson's targets, but I think there is plenty of room for the Chargers to run a lot more while at the same time throwing more. After all, the Chargers were only #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.That said, I do think the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:1. The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.2. Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.3. Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis combined for only 119 targets last season... that could easily go up with better health, since all but Naanee missed time due to injuries.4. In particular, Floyd played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on just 37 targets. I really like Floyd's prospects this year. I think putting Gates, Jackson, and Floyd on the field at the same time really puts pressure on the defense.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season. Meanwhile, I think the RBs and TEs will collectively get about as many targets as they did last year. So I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets.The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often (like I said, maybe up to 500 attempts, but hard to see more than that). I will say that if disaster struck and Tomlinson went down early for the season, I could see the offense swinging much more heavily to the pass, and there would be real value in this offense in that scenario.Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr) 3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr) Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. Not that this is necessarily unusual, since teams of course tend to pass more when behind. But it certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.Finally, Jackson was very productive with 101 targets last season. Even if he gets more targets and/or catches, it is not a given that he will maintain the same productivity rate.I'll project 96 targets, 56 receptions, 924 receiving yards, 7 TDs, assuming he plays 16 games.

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My thoughts exactly and weirdly enough those are the exact numbers I projected. 56-924-7.

Just Win Baby said:

I've posted a lot about the Chargers offense and its WRs, so I'm going to try to condense some of that here.Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.So what does all of that have to do with Jackson? Mainly that I do not believe there will be fewer overall opportunities in the Chargers passing game. Some have suggested a shift back to a more balanced offense will limit Jackson's targets, but I think there is plenty of room for the Chargers to run a lot more while at the same time throwing more. After all, the Chargers were only #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.That said, I do think the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:1. The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.2. Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.3. Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis combined for only 119 targets last season... that could easily go up with better health, since all but Naanee missed time due to injuries.4. In particular, Floyd played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on just 37 targets. I really like Floyd's prospects this year. I think putting Gates, Jackson, and Floyd on the field at the same time really puts pressure on the defense.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season. Meanwhile, I think the RBs and TEs will collectively get about as many targets as they did last year. So I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets.The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often (like I said, maybe up to 500 attempts, but hard to see more than that). I will say that if disaster struck and Tomlinson went down early for the season, I could see the offense swinging much more heavily to the pass, and there would be real value in this offense in that scenario.Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr) 3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr) Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. Not that this is necessarily unusual, since teams of course tend to pass more when behind. But it certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.Finally, Jackson was very productive with 101 targets last season. Even if he gets more targets and/or catches, it is not a given that he will maintain the same productivity rate.I'll project 96 targets, 56 receptions, 924 receiving yards, 7 TDs, assuming he plays 16 games.

Click to expand...

Fantastic post. Stuff like this is why I come to FBG.

Just Win Baby said:

I've posted a lot about the Chargers offense and its WRs, so I'm going to try to condense some of that here.Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.So what does all of that have to do with Jackson? Mainly that I do not believe there will be fewer overall opportunities in the Chargers passing game. Some have suggested a shift back to a more balanced offense will limit Jackson's targets, but I think there is plenty of room for the Chargers to run a lot more while at the same time throwing more. After all, the Chargers were only #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.That said, I do think the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:1. The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.2. Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.3. Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis combined for only 119 targets last season... that could easily go up with better health, since all but Naanee missed time due to injuries.4. In particular, Floyd played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on just 37 targets. I really like Floyd's prospects this year. I think putting Gates, Jackson, and Floyd on the field at the same time really puts pressure on the defense.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season. Meanwhile, I think the RBs and TEs will collectively get about as many targets as they did last year. So I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets.The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often (like I said, maybe up to 500 attempts, but hard to see more than that). I will say that if disaster struck and Tomlinson went down early for the season, I could see the offense swinging much more heavily to the pass, and there would be real value in this offense in that scenario.Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr) 3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr) Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. Not that this is necessarily unusual, since teams of course tend to pass more when behind. But it certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.Finally, Jackson was very productive with 101 targets last season. Even if he gets more targets and/or catches, it is not a given that he will maintain the same productivity rate.I'll project 96 targets, 56 receptions, 924 receiving yards, 7 TDs, assuming he plays 16 games.

Click to expand...

Good post.One thing I would add though is that Rivers had the highest TD% in the league last year- at 7.1% hes not likely to keep that up and it s much higher than the 4.6 and 4.8 rates he threw before last year. Even if you give him a 6% rate- which would be good for any QB- he would have to attempt 567 passes to have 34 TDs again. Give him 500 attempts @5.5% and you get 27-28 TDs. Not counting his rookie year Gates has had 13,10,9,9,8 TDs. I think 8-9 TDs is a safe bet while the RBs on this team will take another 5-6 receiving TDs at least (they had 8 last year) and you have 13 or 14 TDs left to spread around Chambers who has never caught fewer than 3 and has two double digit seasons and Floyd and any other random 2nd or 3rd string TE and you are looking at 7-8 TDs being VJ upside unless Rivers has a monster year in terms of rate or someone on their team have signifigantly below average years TD wise.

baconisgood said:

One thing I would add though is that Rivers had the highest TD% in the league last year- at 7.1% hes not likely to keep that up and it s much higher than the 4.6 and 4.8 rates he threw before last year. Even if you give him a 6% rate- which would be good for any QB- he would have to attempt 567 passes to have 34 TDs again. Give him 500 attempts @5.5% and you get 27-28 TDs. Not counting his rookie year Gates has had 13,10,9,9,8 TDs. I think 8-9 TDs is a safe bet while the RBs on this team will take another 5-6 receiving TDs at least (they had 8 last year) and you have 13 or 14 TDs left to spread around Chambers who has never caught fewer than 3 and has two double digit seasons and Floyd and any other random 2nd or 3rd string TE and you are looking at 7-8 TDs being VJ upside unless Rivers has a monster year in terms of rate or someone on their team have signifigantly below average years TD wise.

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Good post.First, I don't think Rivers' 2006 and 2007 TD percentages are particularly relevant. In 2006, he was a first year starter in a different and more conservative offense; he had 36 year old McCardell, Eric Parker, and Michael Turner instead of Chambers, Davis, Naanee, and Sproles; and Chambers and Floyd were not yet developed. In 2007, Rivers was adjusting to a new offense and a fair amount of turnover in offensive personnel -- McCardell, Parker, and Turner were gone, Naanee and Davis were rookies, and Sproles was back... and Chambers arrived and integrated into the offense at midseason.In 2008, Rivers was a third year starter, and for the first time was a returning starter in the same offense. He also had a better set of targets than in the previous two seasons. That season is obviously the most similar to his situation in 2009, and, in fact, his situation in 2009 should be even better, with better health for his OL, Tomlinson, Gates, and his WRs, who collectively missed several games.I agree he is unlikely to repeat his 2008 TD percentage. I think 28 TDs is a reasonable estimate, with plenty of upside. 28 TDs could easily break down like this: Gates 8, RBs 6, Jackson 7, Floyd 3, and Chambers 3, with one left over as a wild card.

I thought I heard something about Vincent possibly in trouble during the off-season. Does anyone recall or know anything about his status heading into the season? TIA.

Routilla said:

I thought I heard something about Vincent possibly in trouble during the off-season. Does anyone recall or know anything about his status heading into the season? TIA.

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Last I heard he will not be suspended by the NFL.

ATC1 said:

Routilla said:

I thought I heard something about Vincent possibly in trouble during the off-season. Does anyone recall or know anything about his status heading into the season? TIA.

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Last I heard he will not be suspended by the NFL.

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Great. There should be a site that has legal status of athletes in all sports, IMO. This way we could find out who is or might be in trouble. It would also give the general public a better perspective on these guys as citizens or their deficiencies of being good citizens.

ATC1 said:

Routilla said:

I thought I heard something about Vincent possibly in trouble during the off-season. Does anyone recall or know anything about his status heading into the season? TIA.

Click to expand...

Last I heard he will not be suspended by the NFL.

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Last I heard, the NFL was waiting for the legal situation to be resolved first.Thus with his appeals, there will likely be no action till next season.

craxie said:

ATC1 said:

Routilla said:

I thought I heard something about Vincent possibly in trouble during the off-season. Does anyone recall or know anything about his status heading into the season? TIA.

Click to expand...

Last I heard he will not be suspended by the NFL.

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Last I heard, the NFL was waiting for the legal situation to be resolved first.Thus with his appeals, there will likely be no action till next season.

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This is the kind of thing that bugs me about players as we prepare for our drafts. VJ looks like a 4th rd pick and it would really suck to only get him for 1/2 the season or losing him before the playoffs because of legal problems. Every player is an injury risk to some degree but these legal issues are so vague and the legal process for each situation is as well.

guys relax he wont be suspended until 2010 at the earliest:

Jackson files appeal in DUI case; suspension in 2009 unlikely

By Brent Schrotenboer

Union-Tribune Staff Writer

4:28 p.m. July 29, 2009

Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson probably will avoid an NFL suspension this season after recently appealing a judge's ruling in his DUI case.

The appeal is likely to delay his legal case until after the 2009 season, which also would delay any suspension resulting from it.

"This thing could be in the appellate courts for quite some time," said Cole Casey, Jackson's attorney.

Jackson was arrested Jan. 6 on suspicion of DUI. His blood-alcohol content measured at 0.17 percent, more than double the state limit of 0.08. At the time of his arrest, Jackson was on five years' probation for a 2006 drunken driving conviction in San Diego.

The NFL's substance abuse policy states a second alcohol-related offense likely would result in a suspension. The NFL commissioner may impose discipline if a player is convicted of or admits to a violation of the law for alcohol-related offenses. Jackson pleaded not guilty in February. In June, Jackson asked a San Diego Superior Court judge to throw out his blood-test results on the grounds that the test violated his Fourth Amendment rights, which guard against unreasonable search and seizures.

Casey argued that Jackson was forced to have his blood drawn against his will after repeatedly requesting a breath test instead, as was his right. But the breath machine didn't immediately accept his sample, and Jackson moved slowly while removing personal items to be inventoried, according to the testimony of a California Highway Patrol officer.

Because of this, the officer considered Jackson to be refusing the breath test. Jackson's blood then was drawn from his arm while his arms were handcuffed behind a chair.

Judge Cynthia Bashant rejected Jackson's request, leading to his appeal.

Casey said afterward he hoped the case would end up in federal court.

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stori...2225/?chargers

80 1200 9

I gotta say that I think Jackson has more upside than White, assuming he signs. Why does everyone throw caution to the wind on Vincent, yet the same rules don't seem to apply to Roddy and his overblown rating? Jenkins, Norwood and Gonzo will vulture the extra scraps from a dedicated ground ball control game.

Just Win Baby said:

I've posted a lot about the Chargers offense and its WRs, so I'm going to try to condense some of that here.Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.So what does all of that have to do with Jackson? Mainly that I do not believe there will be fewer overall opportunities in the Chargers passing game. Some have suggested a shift back to a more balanced offense will limit Jackson's targets, but I think there is plenty of room for the Chargers to run a lot more while at the same time throwing more. After all, the Chargers were only #25 in the NFL in passing attempts.That said, I do think the biggest threat to Jackson duplicating his numbers is how many targets he will get. Last season:1. The RBs got 138 targets... with both LT and Sproles back, I wouldn't expect that number to decline much, if at all.2. Gates only had 92 targets... in the previous 4 seasons, his lowest total was 111, so I expect that number to go up.3. Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis combined for only 119 targets last season... that could easily go up with better health, since all but Naanee missed time due to injuries.4. In particular, Floyd played very well IMO, and made the most of limited opportunities, with 27/465/4 (17.2 ypc) on just 37 targets. I really like Floyd's prospects this year. I think putting Gates, Jackson, and Floyd on the field at the same time really puts pressure on the defense.I think it is likely that Chambers, Floyd, Naanee, and Davis will combine for more than 119 targets this season. Meanwhile, I think the RBs and TEs will collectively get about as many targets as they did last year. So I think it will be difficult for Jackson to receive more targets.The only way I could see him getting a non-trivial increase in targets would be if other targets are injured and/or if the Chargers throw a lot more. I wouldn't project injuries and I don't have any basis to think the Chargers will throw a lot more often (like I said, maybe up to 500 attempts, but hard to see more than that). I will say that if disaster struck and Tomlinson went down early for the season, I could see the offense swinging much more heavily to the pass, and there would be real value in this offense in that scenario.Furthermore, consider Jackson's splits (from FBG, regular and post season):1st qtr - 25 targets, 15/303/1 (20.2 ypr)2nd qtr - 22 targets, 11/234/3 (21.3 ypr) 3rd qtr - 27 targets, 15/264/1 (17.6 ypr)4th/OT - 36 targets, 20/346/3 (17.3 ypr)He had a lot more targets and catches in the 4th quarter and OT. Now consider these splits:Leading big - 13 targets, 8/247/1 (30.9 ypr)Leading close - 15 targets, 6/89/1 (14.8 ypr) Tied - 19 targets, 10/255/2 (25.5 ypr)Trailing close - 35 targets, 23/323/3 (14.0 ypr)Trailing big - 28 targets, 14/233/1 (16.6 ypr)62% of his targets and 63% of his catches came when the Chargers were behind. Not that this is necessarily unusual, since teams of course tend to pass more when behind. But it certainly seems possible that if the Chargers play from behind less this season, his numbers could drop off accordingly. So a valid question is whether or not the Chargers will play from behind less often this year. I expect the defense will be better, but they do have a reasonably tough schedule.Finally, Jackson was very productive with 101 targets last season. Even if he gets more targets and/or catches, it is not a given that he will maintain the same productivity rate.I'll project 96 targets, 56 receptions, 924 receiving yards, 7 TDs, assuming he plays 16 games.

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Revisiting old spotlight posts. Pretty much blew this one... Jackson had 68/1167/9 on 107 targets. I was right to be more conservative than some with his targets, but I was too conservative and also slightly underprojected his catch percentage and yards per reception. As a Chargers fan, I'm pretty happy to have been wrong on this one.

Just Win Baby said:

In 2008, Rivers was a third year starter, and for the first time was a returning starter in the same offense. He also had a better set of targets than in the previous two seasons. That season is obviously the most similar to his situation in 2009, and, in fact, his situation in 2009 should be even better, with better health for his OL, Tomlinson, Gates, and his WRs, who collectively missed several games.I agree he is unlikely to repeat his 2008 TD percentage. I think 28 TDs is a reasonable estimate, with plenty of upside. 28 TDs could easily break down like this: Gates 8, RBs 6, Jackson 7, Floyd 3, and Chambers 3, with one left over as a wild card.

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Actual TD distribution:Gates 8RBs 7Jackson 9Floyd 1Chambers 1Naanee 2Total 28Pretty close.

valhallan said:

Last year all we heard was there wouldn't be enough touches to go around for VJax to be relevant and it feels like the same arguments this year. Gates and LT declined and it would not be surprising at all if they continued to slip further. Meanwhile, VJax has improved every year and turned into a game changer during the early '08 playoff run. I'm not ready call him the next Fitz or TO, but if the Chargers shift some of the offense to go through him as I suspect they will, we could be looking a low-end WR1. 70-1155-8

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Actual:68/1167/9

valhallan said:

Last year all we heard was there wouldn't be enough touches to go around for VJax to be relevant and it feels like the same arguments this year. Gates and LT declined and it would not be surprising at all if they continued to slip further. Meanwhile, VJax has improved every year and turned into a game changer during the early '08 playoff run. I'm not ready call him the next Fitz or TO, but if the Chargers shift some of the offense to go through him as I suspect they will, we could be looking a low-end WR1. 70-1155-8

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This looks like the most accurate projection in this thread.

perry147 said:

The SD team is changing before our very eyes, LT is getting older and I think with the emergence last year of Rivers that the Chargers will become a more pass oriented team. The continuing development of Jackson last year was dependent upon him getting opportunity, he got it and produced. The chargers know what they have in VJ and will continue to give him opportunities. His 6'5 height makes his a premiere red zone target.I think VJ is the WR to own in a dynasty and after this year Chambers will be let go and he will be the #1 guy in SD. Gates is getting older and over the last few years has struggled with injuries, this also plays in VJ's favor.Prediction 1100 Yards 80 Rec. 10TD (bold but I really like this guy).

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A little bit too bold but not bad.Actual 1167 Yards 68 rec. 9 TDs

Just Win Baby said:

valhallan said:

Last year all we heard was there wouldn't be enough touches to go around for VJax to be relevant and it feels like the same arguments this year. Gates and LT declined and it would not be surprising at all if they continued to slip further. Meanwhile, VJax has improved every year and turned into a game changer during the early '08 playoff run. I'm not ready call him the next Fitz or TO, but if the Chargers shift some of the offense to go through him as I suspect they will, we could be looking a low-end WR1. 70-1155-8

Click to expand...

This looks like the most accurate projection in this thread.

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Thanks. Gates certainly didn't decline as I thought he might, but LT was off the map. I'm thinking this means VJax can perform at a high level regardless of Gates' numbers, but we don't know what will happen if a stud running back appears next year. Given his obvious talent, I'm inclined to expect similar numbers going forward but there's a tiny pinch of doubt depending on the RB situation.

valhallan said:

Just Win Baby said:

valhallan said:

Last year all we heard was there wouldn't be enough touches to go around for VJax to be relevant and it feels like the same arguments this year. Gates and LT declined and it would not be surprising at all if they continued to slip further. Meanwhile, VJax has improved every year and turned into a game changer during the early '08 playoff run. I'm not ready call him the next Fitz or TO, but if the Chargers shift some of the offense to go through him as I suspect they will, we could be looking a low-end WR1. 70-1155-8

Click to expand...

This looks like the most accurate projection in this thread.

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Thanks. Gates certainly didn't decline as I thought he might, but LT was off the map. I'm thinking this means VJax can perform at a high level regardless of Gates' numbers, but we don't know what will happen if a stud running back appears next year. Given his obvious talent, I'm inclined to expect similar numbers going forward but there's a tiny pinch of doubt depending on the RB situation.

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Agreed. And imagine what Jackson's potential would be if the Chargers threw more often. They were #23 in the league in passing attempts. For next year, the status of both LT and Sproles is currently unknown, so there could potentially be at least a slight shift to more WR targets, depending on how good any new RBs they bring in are as receivers.