Player Spotlight: Marion Barber (1 Viewer)

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

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Thread Topic: Marion Barber, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Marion Barber Player Page

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I think Barber is a nice 2nd or 3rd round pick this year in redraft leagues

I do think that Felix Jones will be a very nice compliment but Dallas is going to run, run and run some more. I think there will be enough touches for both of them

I think Marion might lose alittle yardage from years' past but will keep up his great td #'s

240 carries

1020 yards

4.5 avg

12 td's

25 catches

180 yards

240 Attempts / 980 yds / 12 TDs

40+ Recs for 350 yds

Blackjacks said:

I think Barber is a nice 2nd or 3rd round pick this year in redraft leaguesI do think that Felix Jones will be a very nice compliment but Dallas is going to run, run and run some more. I think there will be enough touches for both of themI think Marion might lose alittle yardage from years' past but will keep up his great td #'s240 carries1020 yards4.5 avg12 td's25 catches180 yards

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MB wont make it to the 2nd. maybe the turn, but thats about it.that said, i know i give Switz a lot of crap for his Felix Jones man-love, but this kid is gonna be special. hopefully he stays healthy so we can see what he can really do. i'm a Cowboys fan first, and i want to see them utilize their offensive weapons to maximize team success.i see a full on RBBC. this should actually help MB, ala the JJ days. i think MB will be the bell cow of the team. i could see 1100 total yds and 11 TD's.

maybe the turn, but thats about it.

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The turn for round 2/3? Then yeah. If someone takes him at the 11-12 turn then I think they're nuts. I won't be surprised to see Barber going late into the 2nd in many leagues this year.Don't get me wrong, on the field, I think Barber is a beast. He's a violent, bowling ball with dreads, and while that is what makes him a good football player, it is also what ultimately limits him. His violent playstyle does not lend itself to remaining healthy. Last year was a prime example. Aftery week 12 his play/touches fell way off, in part because the poundings he was taking piled up. He only missed 1 game outright, IIRC, but he was limited in at least 3 or 4 others down the stretch. He was right around RB15 last season with near 300 touches, and career highs in just about everything except TDs and YPA, without Felix Jones around for a large portion of the year. I can't see him improving on the stats he had a year ago if Jones is healthier, so I don't expect that he'll be finishing with many more, if any more, fantasy points than he did in 2008 either. TDs are unpredictable, and that's where he COULD make some hay over last season, but I'm more inclined to believe that his production goes down due to Jones, and even Choice, being sprinkled in more liberally to not only keep Barber healthier down the stretch, but because both those guys are pretty good in their own right. We'll likely see his touches go down some, but he'll probably have a better shot to be fresher the last quarter of the season because of it.Attempts: 205 Yards: 820 TDs: 10 Catches: 40 Yards: 280 TDs: 2If all 3 Cowboy backs remain healthy, I think he'll finish in the RB17-19 range. If Jones get injured again, the Dallas passing game doesn't totally tank, and Barber can stay healthy I could easily see a top 10 finish. Which I guess is really the rub with Barber....he has the talent to be top 5 or 6 in any given year, but his current committee situation/the amount of punishment he absorbs may not ever allow him to realize that.

This has the makings of a sick running game if Felix plays to his potential and is everything Julia was supposed to be. I expect a return to his 2007 ways.

5-ish Finkle said:

maybe the turn, but thats about it.

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The turn for round 2/3? Then yeah. If someone takes him at the 11-12 turn then I think they're nuts. I won't be surprised to see Barber going late into the 2nd in many leagues this year.Don't get me wrong, on the field, I think Barber is a beast. He's a violent, bowling ball with dreads, and while that is what makes him a good football player, it is also what ultimately limits him. His violent playstyle does not lend itself to remaining healthy. Last year was a prime example. Aftery week 12 his play/touches fell way off, in part because the poundings he was taking piled up. He only missed 1 game outright, IIRC, but he was limited in at least 3 or 4 others down the stretch. He was right around RB15 last season with near 300 touches, and career highs in just about everything except TDs and YPA, without Felix Jones around for a large portion of the year. I can't see him improving on the stats he had a year ago if Jones is healthier, so I don't expect that he'll be finishing with many more, if any more, fantasy points than he did in 2008 either. TDs are unpredictable, and that's where he COULD make some hay over last season, but I'm more inclined to believe that his production goes down due to Jones, and even Choice, being sprinkled in more liberally to not only keep Barber healthier down the stretch, but because both those guys are pretty good in their own right. We'll likely see his touches go down some, but he'll probably have a better shot to be fresher the last quarter of the season because of it.Attempts: 205 Yards: 820 TDs: 10 Catches: 40 Yards: 280 TDs: 2If all 3 Cowboy backs remain healthy, I think he'll finish in the RB17-19 range. If Jones get injured again, the Dallas passing game doesn't totally tank, and Barber can stay healthy I could easily see a top 10 finish. Which I guess is really the rub with Barber....he has the talent to be top 5 or 6 in any given year, but his current committee situation/the amount of punishment he absorbs may not ever allow him to realize that.

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I would expect totals below the first year he and Julius Jones split time. There will be a marked decrease in his overall opportunities from last year. I see Barber getting mixed in throughout the game and likely will see lots of 4th Quarter action when Dallas is leading. I expect he will be the primary GL back and should put decent TD's total per the amount of touches he will get.

The scary part for Barber his value will be based almost solely on how many TD's he will score which can be hard to predict. I would tend to go conservative and NOT over value him and predict:

215 carries

805 yards

9 TD's

24 catches

250 yards

1 TD

Ultimately, I am betting someone else will draft this guy in the first round and I don't suspect he'll be on many of my teams this year based on where I see his value/stats.

There may not be a player I like less at their ADP than Barber. Why does everyone get so excited about this guy? He's going into his 5th year and has never gone over 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He's also finished below 4 yards per carry twice in four years. He also lost a full yard per carry going from "closer" to starter.

Barber runs hard and breaks tackles, but he isn't really a special runner. I thought it was very interesting that Choice averaged over a full yard more per carry, especially since his starts last year came against far greater defenses than Barber faced. I don't think Choice is anything special, but he sure looked productive at a time when Barber wasn't. Some of that had do to do with Barber's injury, but not all of it. The fact is Barber isn't that explosive through the hole and while it often takes multiple defenders to take him down, its not as though multiple defenders have a difficult time catching him.

But aside from all that, the biggest reason I'm down on Barber is Felix Jones. I think people are sleeping on how good Felix is. Which is great because you can get him at least 3-4 rounds later than Barber, and I believe get similar if not better production.

Dallas is almost certain to run more this season with TO gone. While they will pass more effectively and more often, I could see the 2009 Cowboys offense resembling the 2008 Titans offense. I don't think Choice sees any real playing time unless Jones or Barber get hurt. I think Felix will be the starter and Barber will go back to his "closer" role. However, Felix will do far more with the starting role than Julius ever did.

I see Barber getting about 180-800-9 and receiving I see 25-200-1.

travdogg said:

There may not be a player I like less at their ADP than Barber. Why does everyone get so excited about this guy? He's going into his 5th year and has never gone over 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He's also finished below 4 yards per carry twice in four years. He also lost a full yard per carry going from "closer" to starter.

Barber runs hard and breaks tackles, but he isn't really a special runner. I thought it was very interesting that Choice averaged over a full yard more per carry, especially since his starts last year came against far greater defenses than Barber faced. I don't think Choice is anything special, but he sure looked productive at a time when Barber wasn't. Some of that had do to do with Barber's injury, but not all of it. The fact is Barber isn't that explosive through the hole and while it often takes multiple defenders to take him down, its not as though multiple defenders have a difficult time catching him.

But aside from all that, the biggest reason I'm down on Barber is Felix Jones. I think people are sleeping on how good Felix is. Which is great because you can get him at least 3-4 rounds later than Barber, and I believe get similar if not better production.

Dallas is almost certain to run more this season with TO gone. While they will pass more effectively and more often, I could see the 2009 Cowboys offense resembling the 2008 Titans offense. I don't think Choice sees any real playing time unless Jones or Barber get hurt. I think Felix will be the starter and Barber will go back to his "closer" role. However, Felix will do far more with the starting role than Julius ever did.

I see Barber getting about 180-800-9 and receiving I see 25-200-1.

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I'm confused. Don't the bold statements contradict one another?

fantasyplayer said:

travdogg said:

There may not be a player I like less at their ADP than Barber. Why does everyone get so excited about this guy? He's going into his 5th year and has never gone over 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He's also finished below 4 yards per carry twice in four years. He also lost a full yard per carry going from "closer" to starter.

Barber runs hard and breaks tackles, but he isn't really a special runner. I thought it was very interesting that Choice averaged over a full yard more per carry, especially since his starts last year came against far greater defenses than Barber faced. I don't think Choice is anything special, but he sure looked productive at a time when Barber wasn't. Some of that had do to do with Barber's injury, but not all of it. The fact is Barber isn't that explosive through the hole and while it often takes multiple defenders to take him down, its not as though multiple defenders have a difficult time catching him.

But aside from all that, the biggest reason I'm down on Barber is Felix Jones. I think people are sleeping on how good Felix is. Which is great because you can get him at least 3-4 rounds later than Barber, and I believe get similar if not better production.

Dallas is almost certain to run more this season with TO gone. While they will pass more effectively and more often, I could see the 2009 Cowboys offense resembling the 2008 Titans offense. I don't think Choice sees any real playing time unless Jones or Barber get hurt. I think Felix will be the starter and Barber will go back to his "closer" role. However, Felix will do far more with the starting role than Julius ever did.

I see Barber getting about 180-800-9 and receiving I see 25-200-1.

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I'm confused. Don't the bold statements contradict one another?

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Not necessarily. A team can both run more and pass more often if they run enough more plays.ETA: That said, I'm not saying it's reasonable to think Dallas will do it.

travdogg said:

There may not be a player I like less at their ADP than Barber. Why does everyone get so excited about this guy? He's going into his 5th year and has never gone over 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He's also finished below 4 yards per carry twice in four years. He also lost a full yard per carry going from "closer" to starter.Barber runs hard and breaks tackles, but he isn't really a special runner. I thought it was very interesting that Choice averaged over a full yard more per carry, especially since his starts last year came against far greater defenses than Barber faced. I don't think Choice is anything special, but he sure looked productive at a time when Barber wasn't. Some of that had do to do with Barber's injury, but not all of it. The fact is Barber isn't that explosive through the hole and while it often takes multiple defenders to take him down, its not as though multiple defenders have a difficult time catching him.But aside from all that, the biggest reason I'm down on Barber is Felix Jones. I think people are sleeping on how good Felix is. Which is great because you can get him at least 3-4 rounds later than Barber, and I believe get similar if not better production. Dallas is almost certain to run more this season with TO gone. While they will pass more effectively and more often, I could see the 2009 Cowboys offense resembling the 2008 Titans offense. I don't think Choice sees any real playing time unless Jones or Barber get hurt. I think Felix will be the starter and Barber will go back to his "closer" role. However, Felix will do far more with the starting role than Julius ever did.I see Barber getting about 180-800-9 and receiving I see 25-200-1.

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Barber isnt that explosive through the hole? you sure about that?while i'm not high on drafting MB(unless he fell to the 3rd, which i dont see) im' excited about the Dallas running game. MB brings toughness to the table. he'll grind out tough yards, and he's got pretty good vision. he'll make a couple shifty moves and go downhill. i think his value to this team goes way beyond what we see. some guys are just football players. thats why i like him.the biggest line in the NFL, Felix, Tashard.........this team should be able to pound the rock. that will take some pressure off Romo, and open up the passing game.

fantasyplayer said:

travdogg said:

Dallas is almost certain to run more this season with TO gone. While they will pass more effectively and more often, I could see the 2009 Cowboys offense resembling the 2008 Titans offense. I don't think Choice sees any real playing time unless Jones or Barber get hurt. I think Felix will be the starter and Barber will go back to his "closer" role. However, Felix will do far more with the starting role than Julius ever did.

I see Barber getting about 180-800-9 and receiving I see 25-200-1.

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I'm confused. Don't the bold statements contradict one another?

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Dallas will run more than they did last year this season. They will pass more often than the Titans. I think there offense and RB split will be somewhat similar to the 08' Titans.

Last season we saw what a heavy workload does to Marion Barber with his tough running style, it breaks him down. Barber broke out of the gates on a tear, must simply could not sustain it. Over the course of the season, on a measure of averages, he was outplayed by both Choice and Jones, in their limited roles.

By all accounts, moving forward, the Cowboys will not let that happen again. Barber is not going to be the starter, but rather the closer, where he can benefit the team the most. It doesn't mean he won't see caries every quarter, but rather they will preserve most of his carries for the fourth quarter. As the team has publicly stated that Barber was best when paired with Julius Jones, I expect his carries to return to that level.

Ignoring his rookie season, when he was being worked in, he averaged 170 carries in the two seasons he shared with Jones. At that level of work, he also averaged 4.8 YPC, and scored 28 total TDs (or 14 per season).

One thing to consider is that he only had ONE player competing for touches, instead of two... so you can't purely extrapolate those numbers, and expect Barber to see the same load.

This is what I project:

165 carries, 4.6 YPC, 759 yards, 11 TDs. 23 rec, 7.5 YPR, 172 yards, 2 TD.

That puts him about RB 16 or 17.

Marion Barber is a beast of a running back. He is one of my favorite guys to watch play the position. He runs hard and is explosive. He has excellent moves and vision. He is at his best near the goal line as witnessed by his 42 career TDs in only four years of play and he is a very good receiver out of the backfield. He has finished as the RB14, RB7, and RB16 in the most recent three years, while rarely getting 20 carries per game. Combine this with the fact that his current ADP is RB14 and something doesn’t quite add up.

The guessing game as to why Barber is not more highly ranked is due to the other Cowboy RBs. Last season, first round draft pick Felix Jones was exceptional in limited action before being injured. He averaged 8.9 yards per carry. His quickness was top grade and he could be a game changer that gets more opportunities in 09. Later in the season, with Barber and Jones both out, Tashard Choice also exhibited skills. He had 92 carries on the season for 472 yards averaging 5.1 ypc.

Now a closer look at Barber’s career numbers:

05 13 gms 138 carries 538 yds 3.9 ypc 5 TDs 25 targets 18 catches 115 yds 6.4 ypc 0 TDs RB35

06 16 gms 135 carries 654 yds 4.8 ypc 14 TDs 32 targets 23 catches 196 yds 8.5 ypc 2 TDs RB14

07 16 gms 204 carries 975 yds 4.8 ypc 10 TDs 54 targets 44 catches 282 yds 6.4 ypc 2 TDs RB7

08 15 gms 238 carries 885 yds 3.7 ypc 7 TDs 61 targets 52 catches 417 yds 8.0 ypc 2 TDs RB16

It appears that he may have tired some with the additional touches in 08, but is that a true detriment to his value. Even if both Jones and Choice get opportunities, will Barber’s be reduced sufficiently to impact his value or will it allow him to be more effective with a slightly decreased workload? Jones averaged 6 touches per game in his six games. Choice’s averages are elevated as he saw much more action late and he also averaged 6 per game.

Many have anticipated that the Cowboys will run more in 09, so even if Jones sees 10-12 per game and Choice keeps his 6 per game, wouldn’t there still be almost 20 per game left for Barber? This situation could result in Barber’s ADP dropping in August as reports come in about the other two. It could lead to a third round bargain at RB.

Marion Barber 210 carries 924 yds 4.4 ypc 10 TDs 50 targets 40 catches 320 yds 8.0 ypc 2 TDs

rzrback77 said:

Marion Barber is a beast of a running back. He is one of my favorite guys to watch play the position. He runs hard and is explosive. He has excellent moves and vision. He is at his best near the goal line as witnessed by his 42 career TDs in only four years of play and he is a very good receiver out of the backfield. He has finished as the RB14, RB7, and RB16 in the most recent three years, while rarely getting 20 carries per game. Combine this with the fact that his current ADP is RB14 and something doesn’t quite add up.

The guessing game as to why Barber is not more highly ranked is due to the other Cowboy RBs. Last season, first round draft pick Felix Jones was exceptional in limited action before being injured. He averaged 8.9 yards per carry. His quickness was top grade and he could be a game changer that gets more opportunities in 09. Later in the season, with Barber and Jones both out, Tashard Choice also exhibited skills. He had 92 carries on the season for 472 yards averaging 5.1 ypc.

Now a closer look at Barber’s career numbers:

05 13 gms 138 carries 538 yds 3.9 ypc 5 TDs 25 targets 18 catches 115 yds 6.4 ypc 0 TDs RB35

06 16 gms 135 carries 654 yds 4.8 ypc 14 TDs 32 targets 23 catches 196 yds 8.5 ypc 2 TDs RB14

07 16 gms 204 carries 975 yds 4.8 ypc 10 TDs 54 targets 44 catches 282 yds 6.4 ypc 2 TDs RB7

08 15 gms 238 carries 885 yds 3.7 ypc 7 TDs 61 targets 52 catches 417 yds 8.0 ypc 2 TDs RB16

It appears that he may have tired some with the additional touches in 08, but is that a true detriment to his value. Even if both Jones and Choice get opportunities, will Barber’s be reduced sufficiently to impact his value or will it allow him to be more effective with a slightly decreased workload? Jones averaged 6 touches per game in his six games. Choice’s averages are elevated as he saw much more action late and he also averaged 6 per game.

Many have anticipated that the Cowboys will run more in 09, so even if Jones sees 10-12 per game and Choice keeps his 6 per game, wouldn’t there still be almost 20 per game left for Barber? This situation could result in Barber’s ADP dropping in August as reports come in about the other two. It could lead to a third round bargain at RB.

Marion Barber 210 carries 924 yds 4.4 ypc 10 TDs 50 targets 40 catches 320 yds 8.0 ypc 2 TDs

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The bolded statement seems to suggest you think the Cowboys could give their RBs as many as 38 carries per game... which would be 608 on the season... last season their RBs collectively had 362 carries and 77 receptions. Even if you were talking about touches, you seem to be way too high... though your projection doesn't seem to correlate to the statement and seems more reasonable.

The number questioned above was for touches, including both carries and receptions.

rzrback77 said:

The number questioned above was for touches, including both carries and receptions.

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So you are suggesting they could go from 439 touches last year to 608 this year? If that happens, there's going to be a lot of value in the Cowboys backfield.Look at it this way. If all RBs (Jones, Choice, FB, any others) but Barber get 18 touches per game, that is 288 touches in 16 games. If the Cowboys jump from 439 RB touches last year to 500 RB touches this year, a fairly substantial increase, that leaves just 212 touches for him, well below the 250 you projected.The answer is probably that RBs other than Barber will not average 18 touches per game (barring injury to Barber), so I think your projection is reasonable. Choice is probably the odd man out, again barring injury, as Felix Jones assumes the old Julius Jones role and Barber goes back to his "closer" role.

It is funny because I think almost everyone here is correct on their projections of roughly 800-900 yards and 8-11 TDs. It looks like he has very little upside barring injuring to Felix Jones and maybe Tashard Choice, yet we all feel "he will get his". This puts him at roughly RB 16-19 depending on scoring and that translates to a solid RB2. I think the wildcard with Barber is whether he will get receiving opportunities. For a big bruiser, he can catch the rock...this is no Eddie George, Jamal Lewis or Ironhead Heyward. If he gets the token 25 receptions, most of us are accurate...BUT, if he gets 40+ receptions and you are in a PPR league, then you are looking at a low end RB1 and that does change things if you are able to grab a Forte-type with your first pick. Personally, i will take the ganble with him in my redraft PPRs, as I know he can catch the ball, socre TDs and get me 900 yards.

Bankerguy said:

Ultimately, I am betting someone else will draft this guy in the first round and I don't suspect he'll be on many of my teams this year based on where I see his value/stats.

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Barber's current ADP according to Mock Draft Central is 15 so he's not going in the first round. If you are at the end of the first round, you can grab a stud WR and then take Barber in the second, giving you a RB who has proven he can be a Top 10 RB even while in a time share. I like that value in the second round.

packersfan said:

Bankerguy said:

Ultimately, I am betting someone else will draft this guy in the first round and I don't suspect he'll be on many of my teams this year based on where I see his value/stats.

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Barber's current ADP according to Mock Draft Central is 15 so he's not going in the first round. If you are at the end of the first round, you can grab a stud WR and then take Barber in the second, giving you a RB who has proven he can be a Top 10 RB even while in a time share. I like that value in the second round.

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Even early second round is too early for Barber imo. Like I said, he will get drafted likely before I see him having vlue.

Sweet Love said:

It is funny because I think almost everyone here is correct on their projections of roughly 800-900 yards and 8-11 TDs. It looks like he has very little upside barring injuring to Felix Jones and maybe Tashard Choice, yet we all feel "he will get his". This puts him at roughly RB 16-19 depending on scoring and that translates to a solid RB2. I think the wildcard with Barber is whether he will get receiving opportunities. For a big bruiser, he can catch the rock...this is no Eddie George, Jamal Lewis or Ironhead Heyward. If he gets the token 25 receptions, most of us are accurate...BUT, if he gets 40+ receptions and you are in a PPR league, then you are looking at a low end RB1 and that does change things if you are able to grab a Forte-type with your first pick. Personally, i will take the ganble with him in my redraft PPRs, as I know he can catch the ball, socre TDs and get me 900 yards.

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This sums up the Barber situation perfectly. The question is how many catches can Barber get with a healthy Felix contributing. It sounds like they want to use Felix more as a receiving out of the backfield, but we haven't see that yet, nor have we seen Felix get through half a season without getting dinged up. A lot of question marks surrounding the Barbarian, but how can you not feel good taking this BEAST as your RB2 since he does have such a high floor.

1100 yds, 13 TDs, 30 catches, 210 yds, 2 TDs.

Anyone remember how big Ladell Betts was down the stretch a couple years ago? I was thinking about Tashard Choice recently and it reminded me of him for some reason.

todisco1 said:

1100 yds, 13 TDs, 30 catches, 210 yds, 2 TDs.

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So you are expecting a career year out of him. Barber has never rushed for 1,000 yards in 4 seasons.

switz said:

todisco1 said:

1100 yds, 13 TDs, 30 catches, 210 yds, 2 TDs.

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So you are expecting a career year out of him. Barber has never rushed for 1,000 yards in 4 seasons.

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I've seen that mentioned a few time, so if he ran for 25 more yards in 2007 then that projection would be ok?I think Barber is capable of eclipsing 1,000 yards based on his 975 in 2007 and his nearly 885 yards in 2008 in basically 13 games.Felix Jones will certainly get his share of carries, but I don't that Barber is going to disappear, in fact I still think he'll see the bulk of the carries. The Cowboys (from all accounts) plan on running the ball more this season and should keep games close with a decent defense and firepower on offense. Barber is a goal line beast and has consistently put up nice receving totals. People keep mentioning Choice, but he is a backup plain and simple. He looked good down the stretch because he had fresh legs when the defenses were worn down at season's end (he is a good back, not downplaying his ability). The Choice talk reminds me of when everyone though that Bradshaw would take over in 2008 after he carried the Giants in their playoff run - after Ward broke his leg. (me included ) and as some mentioned above when Betts replaced Portis so effectively and everyone though he would split 50/50 with Protis the next year. Guess what? both of those backs went back to their places on the depth chart, so will Choice imo. Barber put up numbers when he was splitting with Julius Jones and he can do it with Felix Jones - who is a little overhyped based on very limited carries which inlcuded a a very loooong run. I do think Felix is a tremednous talent, I just think both will be used effectively.1,065 yards rushing, 12 TDs42 receptions 275 yards, 2 TDs

this one.

Trying to decide whether to keep Barber over Steve Smith (i have a loaded roster in a keep 5 league). I'm already keeping Felix.(have to keep 1 rookie) I love watching Barber play, but i'm having a real hard time projecting him for this year.

Barber to me is player that is very difficult to get a handle on. When finally given the starters role in 2008, I don't think he performed as well as when he was used when Julius Jones was the starter. Even before his toe injury, Barber was middling in the 3.9 YPC average. He had become a bigger factor in the passing game and while he still seemed to be running hard, I did feel that some of his ferocity was gone.

So the things I know about the Dallas Cowboys on offense are:

1) They have a matinee idol at QB who they are invested in heavily, both from a 'face of the franchise' and financial POV. So I expect for him to still put up 525-550 attempts.

2) Barber is also heavily invested in by the Cowboys (7 yrs; $45M).

3) While they lost TO, the idea is that Roy Williams will now be their WR1. So essentially, from a talent perspective, their WR depth chart changes very little from 2008 training camp.

4) Jason Witten is arguably the best TE in the game

5) Their 1st round pick in 2008 is from the same university as the owner, and has a great complimentary game to Barber's smashmouth style.

6) Tashard Choice played extremely well in Barber's absense (62/325/2; 17/163/0 in last 4 games).

7) Wade Phillips seat is EXTREMELY hot.

It was wise of Barber to get his contract when he did because his role was about to change to a more featured role in the offense. But I wonder if he would have gotten that contract if Bill Parcells was still with the Cowboys. Up until 2008, Barber had started 3 games in 3 seasons. You can argue that Michael Turner was just as untested as a starter, but he was actually a FA. Barber had one year left on his deal at the time and in a worse case scenario, could have been franchised. I bring this up because I think the Cowboys are gradually slipping back into being a rudderless organization without a true 'football man' leader. For all their talent, I don't know if the Cowboys have an identity on offense. They can do alot of things well, but I'm not sure they have that one part of their game they turn to when they absolutely need to count on something.

Overall, I still love Barber's game...how can you not. But he did breakdown when his role changed and become more prominent and it's clear the Cowboys are stacked with talent at his position, not to mention others. So I could see a situation where his role reverts back to what he did in 2006/2007. Honestly, is there any need for Barber to have such a big role in the passing game (52 receptions) when you've got Jones/Choice? At the end of the day, I see the Cowboys situation as unstable. They have the talent to rise up again, but I don't know if they have the leadership, both on the field and on the sideline to deal with adversity, which they will invariably face in such a tough division.

Prediction: 231 Rushes, 977 Rushing Yards, 10 TD's; 23 Receptions, 147 Receiving Yards, 1 TD. While these stats might appear similar to his 2008 production in the run game, I'm projecting over a full 16 games so I think his per game production will decrease.

TheDirtyWord said:

1) They have a matinee idol at QB who they are invested in heavily, both from a 'face of the franchise' and financial POV. So I expect for him to still put up 525-550 attempts.

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These things were essentially true when Aikman was their QB, but he only averaged 457 passing attempts per 16 games. While I think it is very possible Romo will get 525+ attempts, I don't think it is for the reasons you stated here. FWIW, Romo has averaged 526 attempts per 16 starts.However, the Cowboys have tried the approach that emphasizes the passing game over the running game since Romo stepped into the lineup, and they don't really have much to show for it. Last season, they attempted the fewest rushing attempts the franchise has had in a season since 1990, but they regressed to a 9-7 record and missed the playoffs. Meanwhile, they arguably have more RB talent right now than they have had for a long time. I could see these factors leading to a greater emphasis on the running game and thus fewer attempts for Romo than in his first few years.

TheDirtyWord said:

It was wise of Barber to get his contract when he did because his role was about to change to a more featured role in the offense. But I wonder if he would have gotten that contract if Bill Parcells was still with the Cowboys. Up until 2008, Barber had started 3 games in 3 seasons. You can argue that Michael Turner was just as untested as a starter, but he was actually a FA. Barber had one year left on his deal at the time and in a worse case scenario, could have been franchised. I bring this up because I think the Cowboys are gradually slipping back into being a rudderless organization without a true 'football man' leader. For all their talent, I don't know if the Cowboys have an identity on offense. They can do alot of things well, but I'm not sure they have that one part of their game they turn to when they absolutely need to count on something.

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Dr. Octopus said:

switz said:

todisco1 said:

1100 yds, 13 TDs, 30 catches, 210 yds, 2 TDs.

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So you are expecting a career year out of him. Barber has never rushed for 1,000 yards in 4 seasons.

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I've seen that mentioned a few time, so if he ran for 25 more yards in 2007 then that projection would be ok?I think Barber is capable of eclipsing 1,000 yards based on his 975 in 2007 and his nearly 885 yards in 2008 in basically 13 games.Felix Jones will certainly get his share of carries, but I don't that Barber is going to disappear, in fact I still think he'll see the bulk of the carries. The Cowboys (from all accounts) plan on running the ball more this season and should keep games close with a decent defense and firepower on offense. Barber is a goal line beast and has consistently put up nice receving totals. People keep mentioning Choice, but he is a backup plain and simple. He looked good down the stretch because he had fresh legs when the defenses were worn down at season's end (he is a good back, not downplaying his ability). The Choice talk reminds me of when everyone though that Bradshaw would take over in 2008 after he carried the Giants in their playoff run - after Ward broke his leg. (me included ) and as some mentioned above when Betts replaced Portis so effectively and everyone though he would split 50/50 with Protis the next year. Guess what? both of those backs went back to their places on the depth chart, so will Choice imo. Barber put up numbers when he was splitting with Julius Jones and he can do it with Felix Jones - who is a little overhyped based on very limited carries which inlcuded a a very loooong run. I do think Felix is a tremednous talent, I just think both will be used effectively.1,065 yards rushing, 12 TDs42 receptions 275 yards, 2 TDs

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i like this analysis. i see no reason why a healthy MBIII cant reach 1000 yds. MBIII and Felix offer a completely different skill set. personally, i'd like to see more of a MB/JJ type situation. maybe a 60/40 split, with MB being 60. with Felix and upgrade from JJ, this should work like a charm. and i'd like to see more sets with both guys on the field. agreed that Choice is a backup at this point. but what a backup to have. we saw what he's capable of.

His best games last year came before Felix Jones was hurt. Jones was getting his carries but that was keeping Barber fresh and Marion was in on the goal line packages. I think a healthy Felix Jones is good for Barber just like Derrick Ward complemented Brandon Jacobs for the Giants. I am looking for about 1000-1150 yards rushing 12-15 td's and 40-50 recept 2 td's.

Bankerguy said:

I would expect totals below the first year he and Julius Jones split time. There will be a marked decrease in his overall opportunities from last year. I see Barber getting mixed in throughout the game and likely will see lots of 4th Quarter action when Dallas is leading. I expect he will be the primary GL back and should put decent TD's total per the amount of touches he will get.

The scary part for Barber his value will be based almost solely on how many TD's he will score which can be hard to predict. I would tend to go conservative and NOT over value him and predict:

215 carries

805 yards

9 TD's

24 catches

250 yards

1 TD

Ultimately, I am betting someone else will draft this guy in the first round and I don't suspect he'll be on many of my teams this year based on where I see his value/stats.

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Got to love the homerism. I agree with your TD comment though. Most of his value will be in his TD production. I am hoping he falls to the end of the second so I can pair him with ADP. That would be a great combo.200 att, 850 yds, 10 td, 40 rec, 250 yds, 2 td

bostonfred said:

Anyone remember how big Ladell Betts was down the stretch a couple years ago? I was thinking about Tashard Choice recently and it reminded me of him for some reason.

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I wanna run with this for a moment. I also recall how big Ladell Betts was a couple of years ago at season's end, I remember how his value going into the next season jumped as a result, and I recall how he re-assumed his same back-up role to Portis the next season. Laurence Maroney followed a strong playoffs with a disappearing act the following season. Chester Taylor, for all his value as the handcuff to have for AP, lost many more carries than most predicted going into last season. Maybe Maroney wasn't a good example, but my point is no matter how strong a back-up finishes a season, they are still a back-up. I think posters in this thread and others are giving too much value and credit toward Tashard Choice. This is not (IMO) a three-headed committee in Dallas. Choice will get a couple of carries here and there, but I don't believe he will impact Barber's value as much as folks speculate. Felix will have an impact for sure, but Barber should still get enough touches to warrant his mid-second round ADP.

Barber is this teams workhorse make no mistake about that.

270 Carries

1100 Yards

13 TD's

35 receptions

200 Yards

3 TD's

Career Year.

Todem said:

Barber is this teams workhorse make no mistake about that.

270 Carries

Career Year.

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He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

turfman said:

Bankerguy said:

I would expect totals below the first year he and Julius Jones split time. There will be a marked decrease in his overall opportunities from last year. I see Barber getting mixed in throughout the game and likely will see lots of 4th Quarter action when Dallas is leading. I expect he will be the primary GL back and should put decent TD's total per the amount of touches he will get.

The scary part for Barber his value will be based almost solely on how many TD's he will score which can be hard to predict. I would tend to go conservative and NOT over value him and predict:

215 carries

805 yards

9 TD's

24 catches

250 yards

1 TD

Ultimately, I am betting someone else will draft this guy in the first round and I don't suspect he'll be on many of my teams this year based on where I see his value/stats.

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Got to love the homerism. I agree with your TD comment though. Most of his value will be in his TD production. I am hoping he falls to the end of the second so I can pair him with ADP. That would be a great combo.200 att, 850 yds, 10 td, 40 rec, 250 yds, 2 td

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Could you please enlighten me on my "homerism"?

switz said:

Todem said:

Barber is this teams workhorse make no mistake about that.

270 Carries

Career Year.

Click to expand...

He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

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How do you say he broke down???? He got INJURED it happens.

switz said:

Todem said:

Barber is this teams workhorse make no mistake about that.

270 Carries

Career Year.

Click to expand...

He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

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He dislocated his toe last season. I don't know that I would call that breaking down. I don't think he'll get 270, though, either. 225-250 is in reach though IMO.

gman8343 said:

switz said:

Todem said:

Barber is this teams workhorse make no mistake about that.

270 Carries

Career Year.

Click to expand...

He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

Click to expand...

He dislocated his toe last season. I don't know that I would call that breaking down. I don't think he'll get 270, though, either. 225-250 is in reach though IMO.

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highly unlikely to reach 225-250. And with Jerry Jones non-commited to naming Barber the starter, writing is on the wall. Sell MB3 now in dynasty before his value takes a huge dip ALA Addai this year....

Billy Ball Thorton said:

switz said:

Todem said:

Barber is this teams workhorse make no mistake about that.

270 Carries

Career Year.

Click to expand...

He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

Click to expand...

How do you say he broke down???? He got INJURED it happens.

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Did you watch him last year? He totally broke down as the season went on, even before the toe injury.

Bankerguy said:

turfman said:

Bankerguy said:

I would expect totals below the first year he and Julius Jones split time. There will be a marked decrease in his overall opportunities from last year. I see Barber getting mixed in throughout the game and likely will see lots of 4th Quarter action when Dallas is leading. I expect he will be the primary GL back and should put decent TD's total per the amount of touches he will get.

The scary part for Barber his value will be based almost solely on how many TD's he will score which can be hard to predict. I would tend to go conservative and NOT over value him and predict:

215 carries

805 yards

9 TD's

24 catches

250 yards

1 TD

Ultimately, I am betting someone else will draft this guy in the first round and I don't suspect he'll be on many of my teams this year based on where I see his value/stats.

Click to expand...

Got to love the homerism. I agree with your TD comment though. Most of his value will be in his TD production. I am hoping he falls to the end of the second so I can pair him with ADP. That would be a great combo.200 att, 850 yds, 10 td, 40 rec, 250 yds, 2 td

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Could you please enlighten me on my "homerism"?

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I think he was referring to the "lots of 4th Quarter action when Dallas is leading" comment... obviously you think Dallas will be leading in a lot of games... making you a homer. Whatever.

switz said:

Todem said:

Barber is this teams workhorse make no mistake about that.

270 Carries

Career Year.

Click to expand...

He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

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He isn't splitting time with 2 RBs. Choice is not part of a RBBC. Just like any numbe rof backups over the years that went away when the starter returned. In this case, 2 guys ahead are returning.

Instinctive said:

switz said:

Todem said:

Barber is this teams workhorse make no mistake about that.

270 Carries

Career Year.

Click to expand...

He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

Click to expand...

He isn't splitting time with 2 RBs. Choice is not part of a RBBC. Just like any numbe rof backups over the years that went away when the starter returned. In this case, 2 guys ahead are returning.

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Really don't think its out of the question that a healthy Jones finishes with more carries than a healthy Barber.What we do know is that both Barber and Jones will get a significant share of what looks to be a bigger pie than in previous years.

I'm curious(since there is no Felix Jones spotlight) what everyone who's done projections for Barber would project for Jones. I think that would be very helpful in rating the both of them.

switz said:

Bankerguy said:

turfman said:

Bankerguy said:

I would expect totals below the first year he and Julius Jones split time. There will be a marked decrease in his overall opportunities from last year. I see Barber getting mixed in throughout the game and likely will see lots of 4th Quarter action when Dallas is leading. I expect he will be the primary GL back and should put decent TD's total per the amount of touches he will get.

The scary part for Barber his value will be based almost solely on how many TD's he will score which can be hard to predict. I would tend to go conservative and NOT over value him and predict:

215 carries

805 yards

9 TD's

24 catches

250 yards

1 TD

Ultimately, I am betting someone else will draft this guy in the first round and I don't suspect he'll be on many of my teams this year based on where I see his value/stats.

Click to expand...

Got to love the homerism. I agree with your TD comment though. Most of his value will be in his TD production. I am hoping he falls to the end of the second so I can pair him with ADP. That would be a great combo.200 att, 850 yds, 10 td, 40 rec, 250 yds, 2 td

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Could you please enlighten me on my "homerism"?

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I think he was referring to the "lots of 4th Quarter action when Dallas is leading" comment... obviously you think Dallas will be leading in a lot of games... making you a homer. Whatever.

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Wow...tough crowd. Reading comprehion is on the fritz? Perhaps I should project the number of wins to help this guy with my projections.I will say 9-10 overall wins for the Cowboys but I'd guess and say that 1 or 2 of those will games where they don't hold a 4th quarter lead. So, let's go with 7 games with a lead in the 4th to justify my above positng.

/sarcasm

Good grief.

Bankerguy said:

switz said:

I think he was referring to the "lots of 4th Quarter action when Dallas is leading" comment... obviously you think Dallas will be leading in a lot of games... making you a homer. Whatever.

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Wow...tough crowd. Reading comprehion is on the fritz? Perhaps I should project the number of wins to help this guy with my projections.I will say 9-10 overall wins for the Cowboys but I'd guess and say that 1 or 2 of those will games where they don't hold a 4th quarter lead. So, let's go with 7 games with a lead in the 4th to justify my above positng. /sarcasmGood grief.

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Yeah, I didn't think it was that "homeristic" of a comment either, hence the "Whatever."

Instinctive said:

switz said:

He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

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He isn't splitting time with 2 RBs. Choice is not part of a RBBC. Just like any numbe rof backups over the years that went away when the starter returned. In this case, 2 guys ahead are returning.

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Wishful thinking on your part. While I agree Choice won't play as large a role as Barber or Jones, he will play a role, more than just backup. And his style is like Barber's so that's whose carries he will cut into, not Jones'.

switz said:

Instinctive said:

switz said:

He broke down with less carries last season, which was his career high. Why on earth would you predict more carries when he'll be now splitting time with TWO Rbs?

Click to expand...

He isn't splitting time with 2 RBs. Choice is not part of a RBBC. Just like any numbe rof backups over the years that went away when the starter returned. In this case, 2 guys ahead are returning.

Click to expand...

Wishful thinking on your part. While I agree Choice won't play as large a role as Barber or Jones, he will play a role, more than just backup. And his style is like Barber's so that's whose carries he will cut into, not Jones'.

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We'll come back at year's end to see. And I don't own any of the DAL runningbakcs, I just live here and go to games. So "wishful thinking" it is not. Backed up with historical trends, yes, but not wishful.

Don't want to search for a link, but today's first day camp report on sports radio from the head coach and GM confirmed that the 'Boys intend to run a lot more this year- less Romo, wr's

I found this in a TC blog from Skip Peete (RB Coach) which refutes my stance of Felix getting the start.

In other news, I had a great visit with running backs coach Skip Peete after practice. Based on our conversation, I don't think there's a good chance that Felix Jones will start ahead of Marion Barber. There had been some talk about Barber returning to his closer's role.

Bankerguy said:

I found this in a TC blog from Skip Peete (RB Coach) which refutes my stance of Felix getting the start.

In other news, I had a great visit with running backs coach Skip Peete after practice. Based on our conversation, I don't think there's a good chance that Felix Jones will start ahead of Marion Barber. There had been some talk about Barber returning to his closer's role.

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That sounds like what a guy took out of a conversation, but there's no actual quotes from Peete.Here's a quote:

Peete believes all three are capable of running the same plays, but their exclusive talents afford Garrett the luxury of using various combinations based on the game's score and situation.

"There may be games where Marion may not be utilized as much because the style of game is based for Felix or Tashard (or vice versa)," Peete said. "You've got to look at the situation and say, 'OK, this is what we need to do.' I think it's all dictated by the game. As the game gets going on, you're going to know."

With that uncertain distribution in mind, Peete has spoken to all three players about accepting their roles - whatever they might be from week to week. Morale won't be an issue, he said, because all three are committed to supporting one another.

Felix Jones agrees.

"I love it," he said. "We all have different running styles and that's a good way to mix it up. The defense can't focus on one back when we have three who can bring different dimensions to the game.

"I'm always looking forward to contributing as much as I can, no matter where I'm at on the field. I'm just happy that I get a chance to move around and contribute as much as I can."

Peete coached a committee in Oakland headlined by Charlie Garner and Tyrone Wheatley. Three backs in Dallas mean even more possibilities for the offense, and hopefully less pressure on Romo to make things happen.

"I wish they all could rush for 1,000, but getting 1,000 yards is hard in this league," Peete said. "I think if we utilize them all and we can keep them fresh, and obviously put them in situations where they can all be successful, I think we'll have a lot of fun."

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I think what we'll see is Jones will be on the field the most of the three RBs. How he is used in the games, and how Choice and Barber will be mixed in will depend on the game and opponent. It seems though like there will be some games where Barber sees maybe 6-8 touches only. Jones may not start, but he's likely in line to see the most touches of the three RBs.