Player Spotlight: John Carlson (1 Viewer)

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: John Carlson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Hass coming back is a huge boost for the entire Seattle offense. Carlson was pretty solid last season. He's got the high draft pick pedigree and didn't disappoint last season. He's a nice young talent on an offense that should be vastly better than last season.

55 receptions

700 yards

7 touchdowns

0 Arrests

Sabertooth said:

Hass coming back is a huge boost for the entire Seattle offense. Carlson was pretty solid last season. He's got the high draft pick pedigree and didn't disappoint last season. He's a nice young talent on an offense that should be vastly better than last season.

55 receptions

700 yards

7 touchdowns

0 Arrests

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Pretty funny post. I first thought you were speaking about Mike Hass Seattle WR. It took me a second to bring that back to Hassleback.The zero arrests I'm sure you actually meant that to be funny. Nice job.

My outlook on Carlson is pretty similar. He's a nice big target that "Hass" got confidence with at points last season.

I'm looking at...

60 catches

636 yards

5 TDs

top 5 TE.

~100 targets, 65-70 receptions, 750 yards, 7 TDs. He is Seattle's 2nd best receiver.

Projection

49 for 539 yards and 6 TD

Hass will focus more on the WR options with a healthy Branch, Burleson & his new favorite toy Whosyourmama.

TE will be an effective check down option without a great receiving RB to steal dump off passes.

The TE is usually a good red zone option as Carlson proved he could do last year which will help his TD totals.

Look for Carlson's numbers to climb if Branch or Burleson have trouble coming back from injury and possibly early in the season as TJ adjusts to the new team/scheme.

If one of the WR's go down, I'd try to add Carlson quickly before his stats start to climb.

Grid71 said:

Projection

49 for 539 yards and 6 TD

Hass will focus more on the WR options with a healthy Branch, Burleson & his new favorite toy Whosyourmama.

TE will be an effective check down option without a great receiving RB to steal dump off passes.

The TE is usually a good red zone option as Carlson proved he could do last year which will help his TD totals.

Look for Carlson's numbers to climb if Branch or Burleson have trouble coming back from injury and possibly early in the season as TJ adjusts to the new team/scheme.

If one of the WR's when either/both of Branch or Burleson go down, I'd try to add Carlson quickly before his stats start to climb.

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fixed. Branch is and I think Burleson starts the season on the PUP. I have not looked for any news to support this, but his ACL (+ more?) went around week 5 or so iirc.the key to Carlson is Hass staying on the field. if that happens, he'll be like Cooley w/ some TDs.

65 for 800 and 7tds

Let someone else jump on Olson (2+ rounds earlier). The kid is good, and Hass will only make him better. And he gets to play SF, STL, AZ defenses 6 times a year.

i drafted him in the 12 rd of a dynasty startup about a month ago, and believe he has a shot @ top 5 #s.

600/6TD floor with 8+ TD's potential.

Owned him last season, picked him up last round (17th) in my redraft league. Started him for the last 6 or so weeks....happily. I follow Seattle closely, and from all accounts after OTA's and mini-camp, JC is looking more impressive than before. Hass only played 4 games with Carlson, so inspite that, he had an impressive season. I do not buy into the fact that healthy WR's and or Housh will limit his potential. In fact, the OC Knapp is talking about putting him in the slot on passing down to create mis-match's.

Super exceeds his current ADP....should end up no worse than #10 and as high as #4.....

sgtrobo said:

top 5 TE. ~100 targets, 65-70 receptions, 750 yards, 7 TDs. He is Seattle's 2nd best receiver.

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I think you hit the nail on the head!Knapp and Mora will use Carlson like they did with A. Cumpler while in Atl..

thecardiackid said:

Grid71 said:

Projection

49 for 539 yards and 6 TD

Hass will focus more on the WR options with a healthy Branch, Burleson & his new favorite toy Whosyourmama.

TE will be an effective check down option without a great receiving RB to steal dump off passes.

The TE is usually a good red zone option as Carlson proved he could do last year which will help his TD totals.

Look for Carlson's numbers to climb if Branch or Burleson have trouble coming back from injury and possibly early in the season as TJ adjusts to the new team/scheme.

If one of the WR's when either/both of Branch or Burleson go down, I'd try to add Carlson quickly before his stats start to climb.

Click to expand...

fixed. Branch is and I think Burleson starts the season on the PUP. I have not looked for any news to support this, but his ACL (+ more?) went around week 5 or so iirc.the key to Carlson is Hass staying on the field. if that happens, he'll be like Cooley w/ some TDs.

65 for 800 and 7tds

Let someone else jump on Olson (2+ rounds earlier). The kid is good, and Hass will only make him better. And he gets to play SF, STL, AZ defenses 6 times a year.

i drafted him in the 12 rd of a dynasty startup about a month ago, and believe he has a shot @ top 5 #s.

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Burleson was injured in Week 1.

I have to say I was skeptical about Carlson when the Seahawks took him in the second (early by most accounts). He's not exceptionally athletic, but he does have good ball skills, and he's fearless over the middle. I thought a decent amount of his production last year was by default, due to the WRs dropping like flies, but everything coming out of OTAs indicates that the team is excited about Carlson's development, and that his role will grow this year.

QB Matt Hasselbeck also chimed in, saying "This year, on third down, he's not on the sideline, he's on the field. There are a lot of situations where in the past we've had a wide receiver out there, but now we're treating him as a threat in the passing game, and we're giving him opportunities to make plays, and he's done a great job."

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Former Seahawks beat writer and respected ESPN blogger Mike Sando also came away very impressed when he observed a Seahawks minicamp, saying Carlson was making overhead catches in tight coverage seem routine, and that DBs were bouncing off of him after the catch.I still worry a little that Carlson's targets can't really increase that much even if he is on the field more, because there will actually be viable WRs to target, but he should at least reproduce last year's numbers. Between him, Keller, and Zach Miller, there's plenty of reason to wait on TE in non-PPR leagues, and maybe even in PPR leagues.

Sigmund Bloom said:

I have to say I was skeptical about Carlson when the Seahawks took him in the second (early by most accounts). He's not exceptionally athletic, but he does have good ball skills, and he's fearless over the middle. I thought a decent amount of his production last year was by default, due to the WRs dropping like flies, but everything coming out of OTAs indicates that the team is excited about Carlson's development, and that his role will grow this year.

QB Matt Hasselbeck also chimed in, saying "This year, on third down, he's not on the sideline, he's on the field. There are a lot of situations where in the past we've had a wide receiver out there, but now we're treating him as a threat in the passing game, and we're giving him opportunities to make plays, and he's done a great job."

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Former Seahawks beat writer and respected ESPN blogger Mike Sando also came away very impressed when he observed a Seahawks minicamp, saying Carlson was making overhead catches in tight coverage seem routine, and that DBs were bouncing off of him after the catch.I still worry a little that Carlson's targets can't really increase that much even if he is on the field more, because there will actually be viable WRs to target, but he should at least reproduce last year's numbers. Between him, Keller, and Zach Miller, there's plenty of reason to wait on TE in non-PPR leagues, and maybe even in PPR leagues.

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This has been my exact take, kind of a right place at the right time thing... I'm going to have to take a closer look at the Seattle situation going forward.

Bump

My keeper league keeps 2 players drafted round 4 or later from the previous season and I'm thinking about keeping Carlson along with Warner.

Everything out of Seattle just raves about this kid. Hasselbeck had this to say yesterday:

On tight end John Carlson: "We've given him all kinds of opportunities and he seems like he takes every rep out there. The guy is like a golden retriever, he just runs and comes back and runs and comes back. He doesn't complain and he's great. He has worked harder than anybody I have seen here to be ready for this season. So I'm hoping he has a great season."

Am I safe to think that barring injury his 627 yards and 5 TDs are his floor this year with Hasselbeck returning?

JMJ said:

Bump

My keeper league keeps 2 players drafted round 4 or later from the previous season and I'm thinking about keeping Carlson along with Warner.

Everything out of Seattle just raves about this kid. Hasselbeck had this to say yesterday:

On tight end John Carlson: "We've given him all kinds of opportunities and he seems like he takes every rep out there. The guy is like a golden retriever, he just runs and comes back and runs and comes back. He doesn't complain and he's great. He has worked harder than anybody I have seen here to be ready for this season. So I'm hoping he has a great season."

Am I safe to think that barring injury his 627 yards and 5 TDs are his floor this year with Hasselbeck returning?

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I would agree with that. While they do have some decent WR in Seattle, I dont think any of them warrent Carlson losing that many touches. I might even bump up his touchdowns to the 7/8 range and his Yds to about 750-800.

Wonder if losing Jones negatively effects Carlson?

I'm waffling back and forth on him. I think he's talented and had a heck of a year last year but I think target wise that may have been a best case scenario. They were literally signing guys off the street and lining them up at WR so he was the only one that even knew the offense at the end of the year. This year with a healthy Burleson an additional weapon in Housh I fear that he may end up 3rd in the pecking order when last year he was option 1 and option 2. That being said Seattle has a nice schedule and I think they will pass the ball quite a bit so they may end up with more passes so his targets may come out similar.

As you can see I keep going around and around in circles and I'm not sure what his role will be this year. The TE position is so deep this year and since I'm not taking a TE early I'll probably end up with him, Cooley, Shockey, Miller, Keller or Daniels. They all kind of taste like chicken to me. I think any could have a nice year but their rankings will largely depend on TDs which are largely unpredictable.

Banger said:

I'm waffling back and forth on him. I think he's talented and had a heck of a year last year but I think target wise that may have been a best case scenario. They were literally signing guys off the street and lining them up at WR so he was the only one that even knew the offense at the end of the year. This year with a healthy Burleson an additional weapon in Housh I fear that he may end up 3rd in the pecking order when last year he was option 1 and option 2. That being said Seattle has a nice schedule and I think they will pass the ball quite a bit so they may end up with more passes so his targets may come out similar.

As you can see I keep going around and around in circles and I'm not sure what his role will be this year. The TE position is so deep this year and since I'm not taking a TE early I'll probably end up with him, Cooley, Shockey, Miller, Keller or Daniels. They all kind of taste like chicken to me. I think any could have a nice year but their rankings will largely depend on TDs which are largely unpredictable.

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I'm excited about Burleson paired with TJ this year. That makes Carlson a nice #3 option in the passing game. Not too bad really considering Seattle should be airing it out quite a bit. Because of this IMO, Cooley, Daniels, Keller, Zach > Carlson However, should Burleson go down again, Carlson vaults ahead of these TE like a rocket.

RBM said:

Wonder if losing Jones negatively effects Carlson?

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Choke said:

dwashington said:

RBM said:

Wonder if losing Jones negatively effects Carlson?

Click to expand...

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Im gonna say no. TEs dont stay on the weakside that often.And almost all of their routes are underneath/quick types that Hasslebeck may need to use a little more often without Walter Jones.

Deeper routes for the WRs (and on occasionaly TE) will be hurt and the fullback/tailback receptions will be stung.

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That may be true, but you also have to agree that if the Seahawks lose their best offensive lineman, it will diminish their offensive production, less TD's, less yards, fewer first downs, which will in turn diminish Carlson production.But you also can take into account the Trufant injury. It will make the Seahawks offense have to put it in the air to keep up with all the points the Seahawks secondary gets torched on.

I'm going to bump this up as I think Carlson is going to be fun to watch this year. 8 targets Sunday with 6- catches for 95 yards and 2 td's. Will most likely stand as a season high in FFB points for him, but it will be interesting to see if he can get 5-10 targets a game and be a consitent performer.

I think top 5 at the TE position is within reach for him. He's clearly a favorite target of Hasselback in a pass-friendly offense - very good hands, runs good routes.

traded Lance Moore for him in dynasty over the summer, loved his first year and thought he had the potential to be the next Witten