Player Spotlight: Lee Evans (1 Viewer)

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Lee Evans Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

There are several reasons in 2009 to like Lee Evans. I feel he may be one of the most undervalued players this year and a great player to target in early drafts. Let's take a look at why I think he is so undervalued in 2009.

1. People will look at last year's stats and see that Evans only had a career low 3 TDs. However, he was a top 10 WR for the first 8 weeks of the season. His production then tailed off the second half of the season. But look closer and you will see due to non-production from other players in Buffalo, he received constant double teams from opposing teams.

2. Trent Edward I believe will be a better QB this year. He's a QB who is learning and got better if you look at his stats at the end of the year. He now has two solid options at the WR spots and a strong running game with Marshawn Lynch and Freddy Jackson. This should be a more balanced offense.

3. Finally the most important reason Evans I believe will outperform his average draft position in 2009. The arrival of TO will finally get this guy some single coverage. Evans has proven that he is one of the NFL's best deep threats, and now with TO in town, I believe we will see his targets, receiving yards, and TDs all increase in 2009.

I think owners could expect to see Evans 2006 like stats. Maybe better.

2009 stats for Lee Evans:

80 catches, 1150 yards, 7 TDs.

71, 1060, 8 TDs.

finito said:

71, 1060, 8 TDs.

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and he will lead the Bills in receiving.

65 970 6 tds

Lee Evans should be getting more attention given his ADP and the reasonably high expectations people have for the Bills. Obviously if you aren't buying into the Bills offensive resurgence that's one thing, but if you give it any credence (as I do), you have to think Evans is the biggest beneficiary of Terrell Owens' presence. Owens may be 35 but he's still a dominant threat and one defenders won't take lightly. Evans, meanwhile, has been opposing defenses main worry for years; and now he's no longer going to be blanketed play in, play out. Evans is a great deep threat, and can haul in balls and adjust to poorly thrown deep outs. I see that as a huge advantage for him this year with Edwards continuing his maturation process.

Whereas I expect Owens will have the bigger fantasy numbers, I think Evans is probably the more compelling fantasy value at his current ADP. You don't have to pay for a breakout season to draft him, but he's lined up well to do just that.

Jason Wood said:

Lee Evans should be getting more attention given his ADP and the reasonably high expectations people have for the Bills. Obviously if you aren't buying into the Bills offensive resurgence that's one thing, but if you give it any credence (as I do), you have to think Evans is the biggest beneficiary of Terrell Owens' presence. Owens may be 35 but he's still a dominant threat and one defenders won't take lightly. Evans, meanwhile, has been opposing defenses main worry for years; and now he's no longer going to be blanketed play in, play out. Evans is a great deep threat, and can haul in balls and adjust to poorly thrown deep outs. I see that as a huge advantage for him this year with Edwards continuing his maturation process.

Whereas I expect Owens will have the bigger fantasy numbers, I think Evans is probably the more compelling fantasy value at his current ADP. You don't have to pay for a breakout season to draft him, but he's lined up well to do just that.

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Why?By looking at your projections and the ADP info on the FBG front page, something doesn't add up.

You have Owens ranked 9th in your WR projections and Evans 25th. According to the ADP on the front page, Owens goes 12th and Evans goes 24th. So how does Evans offer more fantasy value at his current ADP?

I agree with what you are saying about Evans being a big beneficiary with the addition of Owens, but I don't think Evans represents tons of value. In all the drafts I've been taking part in, Evans goes too high. I like him a lot, and think he will do well this season, but I don't see the value.

70 / 1100 / 7

I'm cautiously optimistic. We've been begging to have a legit #2 WR next to Evans. They double team Evans and our passing game sucks (at least that is what we blame it on). In a normal situation I would boast up Evans' numbers quite a bit. But two things keep me from doing so: Trent Edwards and the coaching staff (HC **** Jauron, OC Turk Schonert).

Edwards can't seem to figure out the 3-4 defense, despite going to college at Stanford. Everybody has raved about his poise. I guess you can call it that if you want. I call it as I see it, and I see him as being a QB who won't win you a game and won't lose you a game (even though he's lost us a couple). He is more of a game manager type, the Brad Johnson type IMO. He won't put up incredible stats.

As for Jauron and Schonert, I believe they will severely limit this offense. We haven't had the talent in years past and maybe that is why the offense and playcalling has been so terrible. Hopefully it will be corrected with the addition of Owens, but I'm not so sure. They telegraphed what we were doing all season. If we threw we were in shotgun, if we weren't then we ran. They not only need to mix up the playcalling but they need to open up the offense three fold.

Evans had 63 / 1017 / 3 last year.

With the addition of TO I'll say 70 / 1100 / 7.

If Edwards & the coaching staff can get their act together he has much more upside.

Lee Evans and Ronnie Brown are the same player....teases. Both have flashes that show greatness, both have a season that is solid....but not great. They both have great skills that for some reason don't match in fantasy football points. At some point people need to let go.

Problems with Evans:

Trent Edwards isn't a deep ball thrower.

**** Jauron is a conservative coach that tends to run the football and throw short passes.

In five years as the #1 WR for the Bills:

-he has only one season of more than 65 receptions.

-over 850 yards just twice

-has 8 td's the past two seasons.....combined.

-32 touchdowns in 80 total games

-will have less targets now with TO

-what WR will bust out into the top 15 WR's in the NFL at age 28?

-He has ranked higher than 20 only once in his career....and that was 3 seasons ago.

What is Lee Evans?

-a speedy downfield threat

-will have one great game, then many poor to below average games

tdmills said:

Lee Evans and Ronnie Brown are the same player....teases. Both have flashes that show greatness, both have a season that is solid....but not great. They both have great skills that for some reason don't match in fantasy football points. At some point people need to let go. Problems with Evans:Trent Edwards isn't a deep ball thrower.**** Jauron is a conservative coach that tends to run the football and throw short passes.In five years as the #1 WR for the Bills:-he has only one season of more than 65 receptions.-over 850 yards just twice-has 8 td's the past two seasons.....combined.-32 touchdowns in 80 total games-will have less targets now with TO-what WR will bust out into the top 15 WR's in the NFL at age 28?-He has ranked higher than 20 only once in his career....and that was 3 seasons ago.What is Lee Evans?-a speedy downfield threat-will have one great game, then many poor to below average games

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Edwards/Jauron isn't exactly Stabler/Madden for a downfield WR - that's true. And yah, he is inconsistent. FYI Eric Moulds was the #1 his first two years - he had 9 and 7 TD's those two years. Also he's topped 1,000 twice but not surprisingly has a couple 840's

A lot of good comments here. A few other thoughts:

1) Buffalo is not a fun place to throw the ball after, say, November. Cold, Wind, and Snow. These factors definitely impact his early year/late year results.

2) The AFC East is a strong division. The Bills have a tough schedule.

3) The O-line is in complete overhaul. Every single position will be different from last year.

4) TO is NOT the player he was. As a big Cowboy fan, I've watched him decline. Last year's drop was significant. He really struggled getting off the jam last year. The question is whether he can still command double teams. My guess is that he will some. But not all the time. Not to the degree of 3 years ago. Now last year Evans was doubled almost constantly. So any doubles on TO helps Lee to some degree. But the group that I think benefits more is the RBs. Buffalo will likely see a lot of 2-deep zone this year.

5) TO THINKS he's the player he was. He's going to demand the ball. He's going to squawk. He's going to cajole. He's going to pester. Evans will likely see fewer targets than last year.

100 targets. 60 catches, 960 yards (16.0 avg), 7 TDs

Evans has needed some balance in the offense since he's been there...he's talented but not talented enough to do it all by himself. I was not a fan at all when his ADP skyrocketed off a few huge games but now at around the 30th wr he's cheap. Owens will draw coverage which will enable Evans to put up some nice games although he'll still probably be a feast or famine wr at least he'll be a lot cheaper.

I'm not an Edwards fan at all and think the Buffalo line will struggle. If he had a decent/good QB I'd be all over him but I'm not real hopeful on Buffalo and their offense.

5) TO THINKS he's the player he was. He's going to demand the ball. He's going to squawk. He's going to cajole. He's going to pester. Evans will likely see fewer targets than last year.

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Josh Reed averaged 83 targets the past two years while the Bills were 26th and 32nd in total offensive plays those two years. It would be very easy for them to increase their total number of offensive plays and to get Owens above 100 targets without taking them from Evans by improving their offense. If you don't think that Owens+Edwards' growth will improve the Bills then I agree you should stay away from Evans, but if you do there is generally plenty of room for two players to grab 100+ targets on a team. Besides improvement in the offense there is still room to grab targets from the lesser receivers on the team. 287 passes were thrown to not Evans or Reed last year. Who would you take targets from, Lee Evans or James Hardy?Lee Evans should make a fine #3 WR on your team this year, Just don't pair him up with other boom/bust players like Ocho or Braylon.

Ridgelake said:

1) Buffalo is not a fun place to throw the ball after, say, November. Cold, Wind, and Snow. These factors definitely impact his early year/late year results.

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Prior to 2007, Evans' production increased dramatically late in the season.Final 8 weeks of the season:2004 (rookie): 522 yds 7 TDs2005: 509 yds 6 TDs2006: 805 yds 6 TDsfor what it's worth.