Jason Wood
Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series
One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.
Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.
Thread Topic: Devin Hester, WR, Chicago Bears
Player Page Link: Devin Hester Player Page
Each article will include:
Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules
In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:
Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):
For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.
One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.
Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.
Thread Topic: Devin Hester, WR, Chicago Bears
Player Page Link: Devin Hester Player Page
Each article will include:
Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules
In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:
Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):
For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.
seem like everyone thinks that Hester will break out, While I dont doubt he will have his best season to date these projections seem awfully high.
If you meant that he'd be great value if drafted as a WR4, which is where he is currently being drafted, then say that. The fact remains that you are projecting him as a top 15 WR, which is what I was questioning.
My approach is not quite as technical as yours, but we seemed to arrive at about the same receiving conclusion even with the different methodologies. I envision at least one big play out of a running formation, at least a 65-75 yarder, which inflates my rushing yardage projection to yield around 200 yards total. Yes, the long run can be predicted for a guy with limited carries (20-25), ala Felix last year, Vick in past years, Norwood every year, and Percy/Hester/Pat White this year. I just bumped him (Hester) in my rankings to ensure that I get him in all of my big $$$ leagues........that's my price I pay for posting my projections in here, and when I'm convinced, I don't mind paying it..... 
Are you thinking that I missed something major?ETA: With respect to Hester, I increased his targets, receptions, yards, yards per catch, TDs, and TD percentage, some by non-trivial amounts. Of course, I didn't put him in the top 10-15 WRs like some others here, but I don't see (yet) an argument that I am selling him short.
And after all of my nitpicking our projections are pretty similar 
in my analysis
