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Player Spotlight: Calvin Johnson (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Calvin Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
WR1

145 targets, 89 receptions, 1399 yards, 15 TDs

Better QB play and better alternative targets will increase the quality of his chances.

 
A monster. A freak. A beast. He was WR3 last year in only his second season with the pu-pu platter of QBs throwing him the ball. He can't be stopped. Culpepper, Stafford, whoever-just throw it long and he'll go get it.

85-1450-15 TDs

 
Ripleys said:
:bye: Jerry Rice's single season TD record. :yes:
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:confused: You mean Randy Moss's record?Calvin is the man. I think this year he is going to have a better team and a better qb around him. I actually like the Lions to win ateast 5 games this year and Calvin will be a huge part of all of them. I see him as a sure fire top 5 wr135 targets96 catches1450 yards12 td's6 running attempts70 yards1 td
 
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12 TDs with Dan Orlovsky and a rusty, 2 weeks of studying the offense Daunte Culpepper in 08?

95 receptions

1500 yds

16 TDs

And any single season receiving record is within reach.

 
Blackjacks said:
Ripleys said:
:bye: Jerry Rice's single season TD record. :yes:
Click to expand...
:confused: You mean Randy Moss's record?Calvin is the man. I think this year he is going to have a better team and a better qb around him. I actually like the Lions to win ateast 5 games this year and Calvin will be a huge part of all of them. I see him as a sure fire top 5 wr135 targets96 catches1450 yards12 td's6 running attempts70 yards1 td
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:goodposting: x 2.The only downside is I can't get him in the 4th round like last year. Upside of best WR season of all time, downside of high-end WR2. Only way he doesn't live up to expectations this year will be injury.
 
I think that Calvin Johnson is one of the top five WRs in the NFL, but I would hesitate to draft him at his current ADP of WR4 and 15 overall. The Lions lost all sixteen games in 08 and they threw 509 passes with only 353 rushes. They threw almost 60% of the time. They featured a continual rotation at QB with three taking most of the snaps. This year, they will likely begin with Culpepper and later switch to Stafford, so the theme of change at the position is probably going to continue. This continuance of change makes it difficult to get production.

Let's look at Calvin Johnson's stats:

07 - 15 gms 95 targets 48 catches 50.5% 756 yds 15.8 ypr 5 TDs

08 - 16 gms 151 targets 78 catches 51.7% 1331 yds 17.1 ypr 12 TDs

In 08, there was almost as much rotation at WR as there was at QB. McDonald had 35 catches while four others had between 10 and 20 catches. Basically after Williams left they had Calvin and scrubs. This year they have Bryant Johnson, Dennis Northcutt, and Ron Curry. They may not strike fear into opponents, but they should produce better than last year's options.

I will be surprised if Calvin Johnson meets his production of last year regardless of this skills. His situation is just desperate enough for me to look elsewhere in redrafts at his ADP. This will probably not be the majority opinion on Johnson for 09.

Calvin Johnson 16 gms 150 targets 80 catches 1240 yards 15.5 ypr 10 TDs

 
74 receptions 1550 yards 16 TDs...with the highest upside of any player in the NFL right now. If Stafford is as good as people are saying, this could be a fantasy soul-crushing combo in 1-2 years.

 
Ripleys said:
:bye: Jerry Rice's, oops Randy Moss' single season TD record. :yes:
Click to expand...
Both of those players played on very good teams/offenses. While Johnson should score a good chunk of DET's TDs, lack of opportunity won't allow him to approach those numbers at this point, imo.
 
Conservatively I have him at 75/1100/11.

Tempering my enthusiasm. I've got my favorite player on my Favorite team going into a keep one PPR league for less the 25% of my total salary. Only way he doesn't make the above numbers is injury, IMO.

 
rzrback77 said:
I think that Calvin Johnson is one of the top five WRs in the NFL, but I would hesitate to draft him at his current ADP of WR4 and 15 overall. The Lions lost all sixteen games in 08 and they threw 509 passes with only 353 rushes. They threw almost 60% of the time. They featured a continual rotation at QB with three taking most of the snaps. This year, they will likely begin with Culpepper and later switch to Stafford, so the theme of change at the position is probably going to continue. This continuance of change makes it difficult to get production.Let's look at Calvin Johnson's stats:07 - 15 gms 95 targets 48 catches 50.5% 756 yds 15.8 ypr 5 TDs08 - 16 gms 151 targets 78 catches 51.7% 1331 yds 17.1 ypr 12 TDsIn 08, there was almost as much rotation at WR as there was at QB. McDonald had 35 catches while four others had between 10 and 20 catches. Basically after Williams left they had Calvin and scrubs. This year they have Bryant Johnson, Dennis Northcutt, and Ron Curry. They may not strike fear into opponents, but they should produce better than last year's options.I will be surprised if Calvin Johnson meets his production of last year regardless of this skills. His situation is just desperate enough for me to look elsewhere in redrafts at his ADP. This will probably not be the majority opinion on Johnson for 09.Calvin Johnson 16 gms 150 targets 80 catches 1240 yards 15.5 ypr 10 TDs
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Lion's OC Scott Linehan coached Minnesota's offense from 2002-04, and in that 3 year span, Culpepper had two of his greatest seasons :thumbup:2003 - 295/454/65.0/3479/25/11 (int)2004 - 379/548/69.2/4717/39/11 intwhat stands out most to me is the comp % and of course the TDs and low INT's..:thumbup:Under Linehan's direction, Moss caught 106 and 111 balls in 2002,2003..his higest-ever reception totals.he scored 17 TDs in 2003 and 13 in 2004..CJ avg'd 17.1 per rec last year, his second NFL season...he gets the best TE in the draft to work alongside, Brandon Pettigrew, who will undoubtedly open the passing lanes and relieve some of the double-team coverages that CJ would normally see..this year, CJ is the poster-boy for the 3rd-yr break-out WR..96/1536/14td, 16 yards per recthat team is undervalued at this point, heck , if Miami can turn things around so quickly like they did last season,why not Detroit? strong running game, great blocking TE with soft hands ( Pettigrew), talent at QB and WR slots..don't sleep on Detroit in 2009!
 
Calvin Johnson is a super star. Don't let any QB problems that the Lions may have scare you off this guy, you'll be sorry. There are many question marks all over in fantasy football, this is not one of them.

85 receptions, 1400 yards and 12 Td's

 
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I love CJ, and i think he is the most talented WR in the league right now. I also think however that he is being overvaled this year in redrafts. His targets, receptions and yards will likely be similar, but i doubt he hits double digit TD's again this year.

Targets - 144

Rec - 80

ards - 1310

TD's - 8

His redraft value seems to be right there with Fitz and AJ, and i dont see any way he puts up the numbers those two will. As much as i like him, he will not end up on any of my redrafts teams. I will wait a full round after he goes and take Wayne, Jennings, White or Steve Smith, who will all likely put up similar numbers, if not better than Calvin.

 
I can't believe I've seen the term "overrated" used twice in this thread. For the sake of argument lets say he did benefit from the positive side of variance in the TD department and they had to throw a lot cause they were behind (though I think the latter is overrated).

With AJ (who I like and defended against skeptics last year) you know his ceiling is basically last year, or lower than a stud entering his 3rd year. Maybe Megatron's floor is slightly lower given Stafford but I don't see it as "riverboat gambling" low given the clowns he had to put up with last year. If you prefer AJ that's cool but it's crazy to not put them at least in the same tier imo.

 
I think some people here are a bit HIGH on Calvin.....I see him putting up 80/1100/9....not to say he can't put up the lofty numbers some are projecting for him..but last season Det. QB's had a total of 18 PTD and CJ got 12 of them...now I am seeing projections for him to put up 14,15,16 TD....I just don't see Det being that much better...CJ takes a small step back in 2009

 
Yeah, it is a small concern that CJ's great numbers last year came in an offense that for practical purposes didn't work. That is, they never won. A successful offense in Detroit should perform differently, meaning no 17 ypc, no 75% of the rec. TDs to one player.

He is too good to knock him down in rankings for that, but I agree that he doesn't look as valuable as a Steve Smith a full round later.

 
Only time will tell, but Detroit has invested in their atrocious Defense with the signings of Pro-Bowl LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, DT Grady Jackson. Drafted what looks to be a very good young Safety in Louis Delmas, and a young LB in DeAndre Levy, not to mention a monster blocking and hands catching TE in Brandon Pettigrew, and that Stafford guy.

The D should be able to slow down some opposing offenses and perhaps force a couple of punts. The Offense adds a key weapon in Pettigrew immediately and perhaps their QB of the future in Stafford who sounds to be as good or perhaps better than advertised so far.

I think Detroit has improved BOTH sides of the ball for a change. They might win 2-3 games this year with Calvin leading the charge.

85 receptions, 1400 yards and 12 Td's sounds about right, if Stafford doesn't "pull a 2008 Matt Ryan"...otherwise we might be looking at 95 rec, 1550 yards and 18 Td's.

 
Stafford starting in Week 1 is the only thing that would drop CJ in my rankings. I don't see a rookie putting up many points for that team. So Matt Ryan did it - okay, I think he's the exception rather than the rule, and he also had a 380-touch beast RB.

But if Stafford doesn't start until later in the year, it could be a critical time to trade for CJ or get rid of him depending on your opinion of the rookie QB.

 
Scooby1974 said:
Only time will tell, but Detroit has invested in their atrocious Defense with the signings of Pro-Bowl LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, DT Grady Jackson. Drafted what looks to be a very good young Safety in Louis Delmas, and a young LB in DeAndre Levy, not to mention a monster blocking and hands catching TE in Brandon Pettigrew, and that Stafford guy.The D should be able to slow down some opposing offenses and perhaps force a couple of punts. The Offense adds a key weapon in Pettigrew immediately and perhaps their QB of the future in Stafford who sounds to be as good or perhaps better than advertised so far.I think Detroit has improved BOTH sides of the ball for a change. They might win 2-3 games this year with Calvin leading the charge.85 receptions, 1400 yards and 12 Td's sounds about right, if Stafford doesn't "pull a 2008 Matt Ryan"...otherwise we might be looking at 95 rec, 1550 yards and 18 Td's.
Click to expand...
Matt Ryan threw 16 TD passes last year, so Stafford would have to do better than Ryan. Even if Stafford managed to throw 18 TD passes, i doubt they all go to CJ. I hope i am wrong, but i think it is highly unlikely CJ catches double digit TD's in 2009.
 
Bills_Fan11 said:
sho nuff said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I can't believe I've seen the term "overrated" used twice in this thread.
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I can't either...so I did a search...and your post was the first time overrated was seen.Overvalued was in there though...but not the same thing.
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Nitpick much?
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Nitpicking because you made something completely up?Youc laim you have seen the term overrated in this thread twice...but its not in here even once when you posted that.
 
sho nuff said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
sho nuff said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I can't believe I've seen the term "overrated" used twice in this thread.
Click to expand...
I can't either...so I did a search...and your post was the first time overrated was seen.Overvalued was in there though...but not the same thing.
Click to expand...
Nitpick much?
Click to expand...
Nitpicking because you made something completely up?Youc laim you have seen the term overrated in this thread twice...but its not in here even once when you posted that.
Click to expand...
It's obvious he misread it. Don't you have a Favre thread to go rant in?
 
sho nuff said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
sho nuff said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I can't believe I've seen the term "overrated" used twice in this thread.
Click to expand...
I can't either...so I did a search...and your post was the first time overrated was seen.Overvalued was in there though...but not the same thing.
Click to expand...
Nitpick much?
Click to expand...
Nitpicking because you made something completely up?Youc laim you have seen the term overrated in this thread twice...but its not in here even once when you posted that.
Click to expand...
dude, stop.. you are being ridiculous.
 
Bills_Fan11 said:
I can't believe I've seen the term "overrated" used twice in this thread. For the sake of argument lets say he did benefit from the positive side of variance in the TD department and they had to throw a lot cause they were behind (though I think the latter is overrated).

With AJ (who I like and defended against skeptics last year) you know his ceiling is basically last year, or lower than a stud entering his 3rd year. Maybe Megatron's floor is slightly lower given Stafford but I don't see it as "riverboat gambling" low given the clowns he had to put up with last year. If you prefer AJ that's cool but it's crazy to not put them at least in the same tier imo.
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Really? Maybe his catches and yardage are about his ceiling, but i could easily see him catching more TD's.I think CJ hit his ceiling for TD's last year, at least until Stafford matures into a top QB. It seems unlikely Stafford throws more than 15-17 TD's this year, so for CJ to match his TD total last year, he would need to catch 70+% of his teams TD passes. Sure his yardage might go up, but i find it unlikely he improves on his 17.1 YPC from last year, so he will have to catch quite a few more passes to even do that.

Houston combined to throw almost 4500 yards last year, but only 21 TD passes. I think it is likely the TD passes go up this year in Houston. Even if they dont, Andre would only need to catch 50% of his teams TD passes to catch for double digit TD's.

Unless someone has a good argument to convince me that CJ is better at catching TD's than AJ, i think it is just as likely for AJ to catch 65% of Houstons TD's and Calvin to catch 30% of Detroits in 2009.

 
Burning Sensation said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I can't believe I've seen the term "overrated" used twice in this thread. For the sake of argument lets say he did benefit from the positive side of variance in the TD department and they had to throw a lot cause they were behind (though I think the latter is overrated).

With AJ (who I like and defended against skeptics last year) you know his ceiling is basically last year, or lower than a stud entering his 3rd year. Maybe Megatron's floor is slightly lower given Stafford but I don't see it as "riverboat gambling" low given the clowns he had to put up with last year. If you prefer AJ that's cool but it's crazy to not put them at least in the same tier imo.
Click to expand...
Really? Maybe his catches and yardage are about his ceiling, but i could easily see him catching more TD's.I think CJ hit his ceiling for TD's last year, at least until Stafford matures into a top QB. It seems unlikely Stafford throws more than 15-17 TD's this year, so for CJ to match his TD total last year, he would need to catch 70+% of his teams TD passes. Sure his yardage might go up, but i find it unlikely he improves on his 17.1 YPC from last year, so he will have to catch quite a few more passes to even do that.

Houston combined to throw almost 4500 yards last year, but only 21 TD passes. I think it is likely the TD passes go up this year in Houston. Even if they dont, Andre would only need to catch 50% of his teams TD passes to catch for double digit TD's.

Unless someone has a good argument to convince me that CJ is better at catching TD's than AJ, i think it is just as likely for AJ to catch 65% of Houstons TD's and Calvin to catch 30% of Detroits in 2009.
Click to expand...
This is assuming that Stafford throws all the TD passes for the Lions. A faulty assumption IMO. How many TD passes will Culpepper throw to CJ? I am guessing 4 before the bye week.Do you think Stafford is the Only Lions Qb this season?

 
Addai said:
Burning Sensation said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I can't believe I've seen the term "overrated" used twice in this thread. For the sake of argument lets say he did benefit from the positive side of variance in the TD department and they had to throw a lot cause they were behind (though I think the latter is overrated).

With AJ (who I like and defended against skeptics last year) you know his ceiling is basically last year, or lower than a stud entering his 3rd year. Maybe Megatron's floor is slightly lower given Stafford but I don't see it as "riverboat gambling" low given the clowns he had to put up with last year. If you prefer AJ that's cool but it's crazy to not put them at least in the same tier imo.
Click to expand...
Really? Maybe his catches and yardage are about his ceiling, but i could easily see him catching more TD's.I think CJ hit his ceiling for TD's last year, at least until Stafford matures into a top QB. It seems unlikely Stafford throws more than 15-17 TD's this year, so for CJ to match his TD total last year, he would need to catch 70+% of his teams TD passes. Sure his yardage might go up, but i find it unlikely he improves on his 17.1 YPC from last year, so he will have to catch quite a few more passes to even do that.

Houston combined to throw almost 4500 yards last year, but only 21 TD passes. I think it is likely the TD passes go up this year in Houston. Even if they dont, Andre would only need to catch 50% of his teams TD passes to catch for double digit TD's.

Unless someone has a good argument to convince me that CJ is better at catching TD's than AJ, i think it is just as likely for AJ to catch 65% of Houstons TD's and Calvin to catch 30% of Detroits in 2009.
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This is assuming that Stafford throws all the TD passes for the Lions. A faulty assumption IMO. How many TD passes will Culpepper throw to CJ? I am guessing 4 before the bye week.Do you think Stafford is the Only Lions Qb this season?
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I completely agree with most of the predictions about his rec/yards. They will be down alot and will he will get a ton of looks. However I have a real hard time seeing how he can get the 15+ td's people are putting out there.

Yes he is an amazing talent but he can only do so much on his own. Detroit is not going to turn into a high scoring offense. They have averaged around 19 passing td's per year the last 6 years, this is include when kitna was through for 4k yards.

Last year CJ accounted for 67% of all Det passing td's (12 of 18). Which is extremely high. All of the other top tier receivers fall into the 35-50% range. So lets just assume he keeps at that pace (personally I think it will go down). But at that high of a % Det as a team would need to throw 23td's. That doesn't sound like a lot, but last year only 10 teams finished with 23+ passing TD's

I really do not see Detroit jumping into a top 10 passing scoring team. If Stafford gets anywhere near 20td's Detroit should be very pleased with its QB. Matt Ryan had a great rookie year and only ended up with 16td's.

Just to put 15+ td's into perspective he are all of the WR with 15+ td's since 2002

Code: 
TD's   (percent of team passing TD)1	Randy Moss			2007	23	 23 of 50 = 46%2	Randy Moss			2003	17	 17 of 31 = 55 %3	Muhsin Muhammad	   2004	16	 16 of 29 = 55 %4	Braylon Edwards	   2007	16	 16 of 29 = 55%5	Terrell Owens		 2007	15	 15 of 36 = 42%6	Marvin Harrison	   2004	15	 15 of 51 = 29%
So 5 receivers in the last 6 years have gotten 15+ (moss twice). CJ certainly has the skills and talent to match them, but these guys were all on high scoring teams and I just do not think Detroit will be able to put up the numbers as a team.
 
I have to agree on this TD thing. This 16 to 18 amount I keep seeing is highly insane. No way does Detroit throw for 20 and no way does he catch 80 to 90%.

I can see 90-1400 and 11 TD's.

 
How many times last year as a fan did you yell at your TV, just throw the ball up for grabs, Calvin will catch it?!? The thing is, I honestly believe that is true. He TOWERS over DBs. His hands are glue. He has a great vertical. If the Lions just added 3-4 "jump balls" per game, it wouldn't surprise me to see Calvin score 16-20 TDs.

 
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mlball77 said:
Ripleys said:
:bye: Jerry Rice's, oops Randy Moss' single season TD record. :yes:
Click to expand...
Both of those players played on very good teams/offenses. While Johnson should score a good chunk of DET's TDs, lack of opportunity won't allow him to approach those numbers at this point, imo.
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I agree. Calvin is awesome, but at some point Stafford will get in there. Considering the team and new coaches, I would expect some 3 for 25 type games.
 
Ripleys said:
How many times last year as a fan did you yell at your TV, just throw the ball up for grabs, Calvin will catch it?!? The thing is, I honestly believe that is true. He TOWERS over DBs. His hands are glue. He has a great vertical. If the Lions just added 3-4 "jump balls" per game, it wouldn't surprise me to see Calvin score 16-20 TDs.
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So how are the Lions magically getting 3-4 more redzone appearances per game? It just doesn't seem likely. I think Calvin is highly likely to have double digit TDs, but low double digits.
 
puckalicious said:
Ripleys said:
How many times last year as a fan did you yell at your TV, just throw the ball up for grabs, Calvin will catch it?!? The thing is, I honestly believe that is true. He TOWERS over DBs. His hands are glue. He has a great vertical. If the Lions just added 3-4 "jump balls" per game, it wouldn't surprise me to see Calvin score 16-20 TDs.
Click to expand...
So how are the Lions magically getting 3-4 more redzone appearances per game? It just doesn't seem likely. I think Calvin is highly likely to have double digit TDs, but low double digits.
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I don't see anywhere where he said the Lions needed 3-4 more redzone appearances per game.
 
Ripleys said:
How many times last year as a fan did you yell at your TV, just throw the ball up for grabs, Calvin will catch it?!? The thing is, I honestly believe that is true. He TOWERS over DBs. His hands are glue. He has a great vertical. If the Lions just added 3-4 "jump balls" per game, it wouldn't surprise me to see Calvin score 16-20 TDs.
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If they just add 6-10 more he could have 25tds. But why stop there, just do the jump ball play every snap. Same thing could be said about Fitz, Moss. For him t have 20tds, Stafford is gonna have to throw 30tds. Do you honestly feel a rookie QB on the Lions is going to throw 30tds? That or CJ would have to have like 90% of all Det's TD's. I dont see either one happening.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
puckalicious said:
Ripleys said:
How many times last year as a fan did you yell at your TV, just throw the ball up for grabs, Calvin will catch it?!? The thing is, I honestly believe that is true. He TOWERS over DBs. His hands are glue. He has a great vertical. If the Lions just added 3-4 "jump balls" per game, it wouldn't surprise me to see Calvin score 16-20 TDs.
Click to expand...
So how are the Lions magically getting 3-4 more redzone appearances per game? It just doesn't seem likely. I think Calvin is highly likely to have double digit TDs, but low double digits.
Click to expand...
I don't see anywhere where he said the Lions needed 3-4 more redzone appearances per game.
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Anytime you toss that ball deep to Calvin you may as well consider yourself IN the "redzone". If Culpepper or Stafford have more time in the pocket due to any sort of line improvement with the addition of Pettigrew to block and the line gelling.....that will simply give Calvin more time to create separation from the DB's. I do see the point being made of 15+ TD's, and perhaps that is a bit much barring a big improvement at QB for Detroit.Ryan and Flacco did well last year with RB's rushing the ball, the difference I see here is that Baltimore's D is sickly good, and ATL's was able to stop some people as well. Detroits D will slow some people down this year, but Detroit will still be playing from behind and will be force to Pass as opposed to hunkering down and running the ball like Balt and ATL could do. Culpepper/Stafford will HAVE to pass more than Ryan/Flacco did last year, unless Detroit just raises a white flag and flat out quits on games. I don't think it is a far stretch to see with Fitz did on his own in the playoffs last year (6 rec, 101 yards, 16.8 y/c, 1 TD ATL---- 8 rec, 166 yards, 20.8 y/c, 1 TD, CAROLINA----9 rec, 152 yards, 16.9 y/c, 3 TD's, PHILLY-----7 rec. 127 yards, 18.1 y/c, 2 TD's PITT) ---with Warner and wonder what Calvin could do with a QB that had a full off-season of work and displayed a bit more accuracy.
 
Burning Sensation said:
Scooby1974 said:
Only time will tell, but Detroit has invested in their atrocious Defense with the signings of Pro-Bowl LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, DT Grady Jackson. Drafted what looks to be a very good young Safety in Louis Delmas, and a young LB in DeAndre Levy, not to mention a monster blocking and hands catching TE in Brandon Pettigrew, and that Stafford guy.The D should be able to slow down some opposing offenses and perhaps force a couple of punts. The Offense adds a key weapon in Pettigrew immediately and perhaps their QB of the future in Stafford who sounds to be as good or perhaps better than advertised so far.I think Detroit has improved BOTH sides of the ball for a change. They might win 2-3 games this year with Calvin leading the charge.85 receptions, 1400 yards and 12 Td's sounds about right, if Stafford doesn't "pull a 2008 Matt Ryan"...otherwise we might be looking at 95 rec, 1550 yards and 18 Td's.
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Matt Ryan threw 16 TD passes last year, so Stafford would have to do better than Ryan. Even if Stafford managed to throw 18 TD passes, i doubt they all go to CJ. I hope i am wrong, but i think it is highly unlikely CJ catches double digit TD's in 2009.
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:goodposting: I'll be surprised if Calvin gets more than 10 td's.
 
sho nuff said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
sho nuff said:
Bills_Fan11 said:
I can't believe I've seen the term "overrated" used twice in this thread.
Click to expand...
I can't either...so I did a search...and your post was the first time overrated was seen.Overvalued was in there though...but not the same thing.
Click to expand...
Nitpick much?
Click to expand...
Nitpicking because you made something completely up?Youc laim you have seen the term overrated in this thread twice...but its not in here even once when you posted that.
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:lmao: sho you are funny.

oh and lol at the comment about you and the favre ranting.

 
FWIW Calvin Johnson's average TD catch was 33 yards last year. He had just one TD inside the 10. I follow the logic about how unlikely it is that any WR will catch 2/3 of his team's TD passes. Makes sense. Although with a guy like CJ who has the size and speed to consistently score from long-distance I think it's not entirely unreasonable to think he could score on one of every 6 receptions.

 
iSnitch said:
Burning Sensation said:
Scooby1974 said:
Only time will tell, but Detroit has invested in their atrocious Defense with the signings of Pro-Bowl LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, DT Grady Jackson. Drafted what looks to be a very good young Safety in Louis Delmas, and a young LB in DeAndre Levy, not to mention a monster blocking and hands catching TE in Brandon Pettigrew, and that Stafford guy.The D should be able to slow down some opposing offenses and perhaps force a couple of punts. The Offense adds a key weapon in Pettigrew immediately and perhaps their QB of the future in Stafford who sounds to be as good or perhaps better than advertised so far.I think Detroit has improved BOTH sides of the ball for a change. They might win 2-3 games this year with Calvin leading the charge.85 receptions, 1400 yards and 12 Td's sounds about right, if Stafford doesn't "pull a 2008 Matt Ryan"...otherwise we might be looking at 95 rec, 1550 yards and 18 Td's.
Click to expand...
Matt Ryan threw 16 TD passes last year, so Stafford would have to do better than Ryan. Even if Stafford managed to throw 18 TD passes, i doubt they all go to CJ. I hope i am wrong, but i think it is highly unlikely CJ catches double digit TD's in 2009.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I'll be surprised if Calvin gets more than 10 td's.
Click to expand...
How would you actually be surprised if Calvin Johnson in his 3rd year caught more than 10 TD's when he caught 12 in his 2nd year on an 0-16 team with Orlovsky and Caulpepper (who was at home playing video games the first half of the season). You must be fun to shop for at Christmas if you get surprised that easy.
 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
iSnitch said:
Burning Sensation said:
Scooby1974 said:
Only time will tell, but Detroit has invested in their atrocious Defense with the signings of Pro-Bowl LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, DT Grady Jackson. Drafted what looks to be a very good young Safety in Louis Delmas, and a young LB in DeAndre Levy, not to mention a monster blocking and hands catching TE in Brandon Pettigrew, and that Stafford guy.The D should be able to slow down some opposing offenses and perhaps force a couple of punts. The Offense adds a key weapon in Pettigrew immediately and perhaps their QB of the future in Stafford who sounds to be as good or perhaps better than advertised so far.I think Detroit has improved BOTH sides of the ball for a change. They might win 2-3 games this year with Calvin leading the charge.85 receptions, 1400 yards and 12 Td's sounds about right, if Stafford doesn't "pull a 2008 Matt Ryan"...otherwise we might be looking at 95 rec, 1550 yards and 18 Td's.
Click to expand...
Matt Ryan threw 16 TD passes last year, so Stafford would have to do better than Ryan. Even if Stafford managed to throw 18 TD passes, i doubt they all go to CJ. I hope i am wrong, but i think it is highly unlikely CJ catches double digit TD's in 2009.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I'll be surprised if Calvin gets more than 10 td's.
Click to expand...
How would you actually be surprised if Calvin Johnson in his 3rd year caught more than 10 TD's when he caught 12 in his 2nd year on an 0-16 team with Orlovsky and Caulpepper (who was at home playing video games the first half of the season). You must be fun to shop for at Christmas if you get surprised that easy.
Click to expand...
I think the overriding concern with Calvin has to be the amount of points he put up in "garbage time" last year. I don't have the exact numbers but IIRC it was a rather high amount. I know it's been discussed in other Calvin threads prior to this.
 
jurb26 said:
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
iSnitch said:
Burning Sensation said:
Scooby1974 said:
Only time will tell, but Detroit has invested in their atrocious Defense with the signings of Pro-Bowl LB Julian Peterson, CB Phillip Buchanon, DT Grady Jackson. Drafted what looks to be a very good young Safety in Louis Delmas, and a young LB in DeAndre Levy, not to mention a monster blocking and hands catching TE in Brandon Pettigrew, and that Stafford guy.The D should be able to slow down some opposing offenses and perhaps force a couple of punts. The Offense adds a key weapon in Pettigrew immediately and perhaps their QB of the future in Stafford who sounds to be as good or perhaps better than advertised so far.I think Detroit has improved BOTH sides of the ball for a change. They might win 2-3 games this year with Calvin leading the charge.85 receptions, 1400 yards and 12 Td's sounds about right, if Stafford doesn't "pull a 2008 Matt Ryan"...otherwise we might be looking at 95 rec, 1550 yards and 18 Td's.
Click to expand...
Matt Ryan threw 16 TD passes last year, so Stafford would have to do better than Ryan. Even if Stafford managed to throw 18 TD passes, i doubt they all go to CJ. I hope i am wrong, but i think it is highly unlikely CJ catches double digit TD's in 2009.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I'll be surprised if Calvin gets more than 10 td's.
Click to expand...
How would you actually be surprised if Calvin Johnson in his 3rd year caught more than 10 TD's when he caught 12 in his 2nd year on an 0-16 team with Orlovsky and Caulpepper (who was at home playing video games the first half of the season). You must be fun to shop for at Christmas if you get surprised that easy.
Click to expand...
I think the overriding concern with Calvin has to be the amount of points he put up in "garbage time" last year. I don't have the exact numbers but IIRC it was a rather high amount. I know it's been discussed in other Calvin threads prior to this.
Click to expand...
How much less "garbage time" are you thinking Detroit will have? They are still going to stink.
 
Scooby1974 said:
How much less "garbage time" are you thinking Detroit will have? They are still going to stink.
Click to expand...
I don't really know, but it does seem that nearly everyone thinks they are going to be a good deal more competitive than they were last year.
 
Here is another thought that we need to keep in mind.

Roy Williams went through the entire off season and then played 5 games with Detroit as their "official #1 WR" last year before being traded to the Cowboys. How hard was it for the Detroit O to transition? What was the learning curve as the Det. WR's made up for the loss of Roy? What would have happened had Calvin been the #1 from the beginning of training camp?

 
Scooby1974 said:
Here is another thought that we need to keep in mind.Roy Williams went through the entire off season and then played 5 games with Detroit as their "official #1 WR" last year before being traded to the Cowboys. How hard was it for the Detroit O to transition? What was the learning curve as the Det. WR's made up for the loss of Roy? What would have happened had Calvin been the #1 from the beginning of training camp?
Click to expand...
I think that is a moot point to be honest. It seems after Roy was gone the passing game went exclusively through Calvin because all the other options were just that poor. So while the loss of Roy may have impacted the passing game as a whole, I'm inclined to believe that Calvin benefited from the abnormal amount of targets. This year Det should easily have a better passing game IMO. They have upgrades at QB, upgrades at WR, an upgrade at TE and more than likely will get better OLine play (but that's certainly no sure thing). So while I'm sure there were some growing pains last year, all the added weapons could easily cancel out any fantasy improvements for Calvin.
 
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