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Player Spotlight: Marshawn Lynch (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Marshawn Lynch Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I am more than a little antsy about drafting Marshawn Lynch in 09. He has that three game suspension for the beginning of the season, so you know that he will miss almost a fourth of the regular fantasy season. He is listed at 5-10 and 223 which seems plenty big for a power back and yet there have been stories out that he has bulked up to 230. I am not a huge fan of additional weight to add power, especially on guys that are not small to begin with.

Lynch missed one game last season and three games in his rookie season, so you might lose more than the known three game suspension. He averaged 21.5 carries per game as a rookie, inlcuding nine games of greater than 20 carries and never fewer than 18. However last season, he averaged 16.7 carries per game and only had four games with greater than 20 carries and went as low as nine carries, as Fred Jackson got more involved in the offense.

The Bills added Terrell Owens in the off-season so there is a likelihood that they will attempt to throw more. You add in the suspension, the abilities of Fred Jackson, the potential for more passing, and I just see risk associated with Marshawn Lynch, even at his current ADP of RB 19 and 38 overall. I would definitely encoourage the drafting of Jackson as a hand-cuff to Lynch.

Marshawn Lynch 13 gms 210 carries 4.0 ypc 840 yards 50 targets 35 catches 70% 245 yards and 8 TDs

 
I think Lynch will outproduce his ADP and outproduce his previous seasons. TO's presence and Edwards' maturity will improve Lynch's numbers. I don't think he'll miss all 3 games, I think he'll have his suspension reduced to 2 games.

244 carries, 1055 yards, 8 TDs, 55 receptions, 320 yards, 2 TDs

 
I love Lynch's ability but I hate his attitude and nfortunetly a guys' mental state is more important tome when drafting my team than his physicaal.

I won't be drafting Lynch at all this year even though, like I said, I think he is very talented.

Too much risk

180 carries

750 yards

7 td's

30 catches

200 yards

 
Don't sleep on how bad the Bills' O-Line will be this year, probably the worst in the league. I don't care if they did add TO, Lynch won't have any holes to run through. It'll be a long year for Lynch owners, especially if his suspension stays at 3 games.

980 yards, 6 TDs, 33 catches, 280 yards, 1 TD

 
Don't sleep on how bad the Bills' O-Line will be this year, probably the worst in the league. I don't care if they did add TO, Lynch won't have any holes to run through. It'll be a long year for Lynch owners, especially if his suspension stays at 3 games.980 yards, 6 TDs, 33 catches, 280 yards, 1 TD
:goodposting: Was headed here to remind folks that they lost Peters to the Eagles.
 
Peters has been pretty horrible. Obviously not a good thing, but I don't think that it is a good idea to assume that Peters' loss is that dramatic

 
Don't sleep on how bad the Bills' O-Line will be this year, probably the worst in the league. I don't care if they did add TO, Lynch won't have any holes to run through. It'll be a long year for Lynch owners, especially if his suspension stays at 3 games.

980 yards, 6 TDs, 33 catches, 280 yards, 1 TD
The line has sucked for a while now... I wouldn't worry about that too much. Yes, Peters is probably a loss, but the addition of TO to go with Evans could really open up the running game if the Bills are smart and take lots of shots deep.That said...

I'll say Lynch gets 234 carries for 985 yards, 10 TDs, and 25 catches for 195

 
I actually expect the Bills run blocking to be improved this year, after spending some high picks on big offensive linesmen. Peters was awful last year, and even when he was good he was an elite pass blocker and a mediocre run blocker.

Not sure how Buff's pass blocking is going to be. Tough to judge with all the shuffling.

 
After last year, Peters will NOT be missed. In fact, I think the line IMPROVES a bit this year with everyone getting reps in training camp rather than Peters holding out like he did last year. Sure it might take a few games to gel, but Lynch wont be in those games. I think by the time Lynch returns, the OL will have some solid time under their belts, and Lynch, IMO, is a great 4th round pick this year. Just be sure to grab Fred Jackson around round 8 or 9.

Lynch:

1050 yards rushing

7 TDs

30 Receps

250 yards

2 TDs

For those asking about Lynch in the 4th, thats where I got him in a recent mock. Not a guarantee to go there, but most people seem to be scared of him.

 
After last year, Peters will NOT be missed. In fact, I think the line IMPROVES a bit this year with everyone getting reps in training camp rather than Peters holding out like he did last year. Sure it might take a few games to gel, but Lynch wont be in those games. I think by the time Lynch returns, the OL will have some solid time under their belts, and Lynch, IMO, is a great 4th round pick this year. Just be sure to grab Fred Jackson around round 8 or 9. Lynch:1050 yards rushing7 TDs30 Receps250 yards2 TDsFor those asking about Lynch in the 4th, thats where I got him in a recent mock. Not a guarantee to go there, but most people seem to be scared of him.
I'd be all over him in the 4th round. You have to assume that if he was playing the whole year he'd be a late 1st/early 2nd. You weaken yourself a bit for the first 3 games but make your team MUCH stronger for the rest of the season. THAT IS WINNING FANTASY FOOTBALL!!!!1
 
Too many unknowns to rely on ML

he will miss 3 games, and who knows when he will be back to a full workload. Do the Bills just give him 30 touches in week 4?

The o-line wont be very good. In addition to the loss of Peters, they have a new free agent center, 2 rookies that will start, and they moved their right tackle to left. (his name escapes me).

Fred Jackson is in the mix and he may be too good to sit

12 starts

743 rush yds

271 rec yds

38 catches

7 tds

 
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Marshawn Lynch is one of the more perplexing players to try to predict this year.

He is facing a three game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Although many predict this will be reduced down to two games which would be a plus this is something that needs to knock his value a little on draft day. Multiple sources have reported that he has added 10 pounds this offseason in order to "bulk up", but I believe that this will hinder him because his running style is elusive - like Emmit Smith in a way.

In his rookie year he was not much part of the passing game, but last year as predicted he was more involved in the passing game catching 47 balls - this is important to note in PPR leagues and gives him some extra value in that league format.

Fred Jackson (ML's backup) is definitely someone you need to draft if selecting ML, the Bills rewarded Jackson with a contract extension this offseason which shows that the organization does have faith in the undrafted backup after he has filled in for ML when he was injured last year and the year before; Jackson averaged ten touches per game last season and had 37 receptions.

With all of these factors taken into consideration predicting ML's production next season is going to be tricky, but if he falls low enough in the draft you can get a RB who can produce at a cheap price.

My prediction

825 Rush Yards

200 Rec. Yards

30 Catches.

6 TDs

 
perry147 said:
Multiple sources have reported that he has added 10 pounds this offseason in order to "bulk up", but I believe that this will hinder him because his running style is elusive - like Emmit Smith in a way.
No, he's much more of a power back.
 
perry147 said:
Multiple sources have reported that he has added 10 pounds this offseason in order to "bulk up", but I believe that this will hinder him because his running style is elusive - like Emmit Smith in a way.
No, he's much more of a power back.
If anyone has seen this guy play, they would know he runs with a LOT of power. His nickname is "Beast Mode" for a reason.
 
perry147 said:
Multiple sources have reported that he has added 10 pounds this offseason in order to "bulk up", but I believe that this will hinder him because his running style is elusive - like Emmit Smith in a way.
No, he's much more of a power back.
If anyone has seen this guy play, they would know he runs with a LOT of power. His nickname is "Beast Mode" for a reason.
ML = 5 -11 Weight: 215 lb ES: 5-9 Weight: 216 AgePoor comparison but I think the extra weight will hurt him.
 
He is a great buy low guy but I fear that his replacement may play great and cause a RB rotation upon Lynch's return. If I can get him in the 5 round or higher I'll do it but I'm not going to think about going higher.

 
Rookies Eric Wood and Andy Levitre are projected to be the Bills' starting guards this season.

The Bills' offensive line won't have anyone playing the same position they played last year. Langston Walker is moving from right to left tackle, replacing Jason Peters. Wood (a center at Louisville) and Levitre (a left tackle at Oregon State) rarely played guard in college. It wouldn't be a bad idea to keep this in mind when investing in Trent Edwards or Marshawn Lynch.

this is a major red flag to me concerning any Bill

 
perry147 said:
Multiple sources have reported that he has added 10 pounds this offseason in order to "bulk up", but I believe that this will hinder him because his running style is elusive - like Emmit Smith in a way.
No, he's much more of a power back.
If anyone has seen this guy play, they would know he runs with a LOT of power. His nickname is "Beast Mode" for a reason.
ML = 5 -11 Weight: 215 lb ES: 5-9 Weight: 216 Age

Poor comparison but I think the extra weight will hurt him.
For Lynch fans...http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-pro-bowl/090...-Marshawn-Lynch

 
Rookies Eric Wood and Andy Levitre are projected to be the Bills' starting guards this season.The Bills' offensive line won't have anyone playing the same position they played last year. Langston Walker is moving from right to left tackle, replacing Jason Peters. Wood (a center at Louisville) and Levitre (a left tackle at Oregon State) rarely played guard in college. It wouldn't be a bad idea to keep this in mind when investing in Trent Edwards or Marshawn Lynch.this is a major red flag to me concerning any Bill
Can't be worse than last year or the year before
 
Lynch appealed his suspension... still possible that it gets lowered to 2 or 1 games.

Which would represent a major shift in time missed and value affected.

Lynch is good enough that I know that he wont get anything less then 60% of all RB carries.

280-1115-4.0-7 -- 18-184-10.2-0 (rook)

250-1036-4.1-8 -- 47-300-6.2-1 (soph)

Not too damn bad at all considering he plays for the Bills.

270-1161-4.3-9 -- 30-255-8.5-1

One of the players representing a major value play currently.
The chances of Lynch winning his appeal are lower than the chance he gets arresteda again before the season starts.he is a thug

if you want a Buffalo RB, take Fred who is much more explosive and a better playmaker than Lynch anyway.

Disregard the nonsense above about not missing Peters. He was the best player on the team and their best run blocker by far.

The Ol may be better eventually but the big issue how long will it take for 2 rookies and 5 guys playing new positions to get on the same page - assuming they can play at NFL caliber

 
perry147 said:
Multiple sources have reported that he has added 10 pounds this offseason in order to "bulk up", but I believe that this will hinder him because his running style is elusive - like Emmit Smith in a way.
No, he's much more of a power back.
I was going to say he's a lot more like Marion Barber than Emmit. I do agree that the added weight was probably not a good idea though as he was already plenty big and with the Bills o-line and desire to run the "hurry-up" offense, the potential loss of speed may hurt more than any additional power will help.965 yards rushing, 7 TDs24 receptions, 135 yards
 
You've got the suspension to deal with, and an obvious handcuff that might get snaked from you. If I was another owner, and I knew I could grab a guy that is gonna start weeks 1-3, I might make a move once the starters are gone.

Plus the line. it can't be worse than last year? I dunno. Walker at LT isn't a sure thing to be even remotely average, two rookie G's, and a RT with no previous starts. Color me nervous.

221 carries, 840 yards, 6 TD, 35 rec, 245 yds, 2 TD.

 
270-1161-4.3-9 -- 30-255-8.5-1

I'd sat those are about right - maybe a few more catches though.

I remember last year people were dumping on Brandon Marshall, the thug, the suspended WR guy and he flat out blew up ..... Lynch is a huge undervalue right now, especially in Dynasty leagues !

 
270-1161-4.3-9 -- 30-255-8.5-1I'd sat those are about right - maybe a few more catches though.I remember last year people were dumping on Brandon Marshall, the thug, the suspended WR guy and he flat out blew up ..... Lynch is a huge undervalue right now, especially in Dynasty leagues !
You mean Marshall, the guy with the great QB and OLine... and porous defense... that was REAL hard to see coming... :sarcasm:Compare that situation to Lynch's, and that's why a lot of us are down on him. Guy has a mediocre QB, bad Oline, and a backup RB that was more effective last year.
 
Marshawn Lynch is one of the more perplexing players to try to predict this year.

He is facing a three game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Although many predict this will be reduced down to two games which would be a plus this is something that needs to knock his value a little on draft day. Multiple sources have reported that he has added 10 pounds this offseason in order to "bulk up", but I believe that this will hinder him because his running style is elusive - like Emmit Smith in a way.

In his rookie year he was not much part of the passing game, but last year as predicted he was more involved in the passing game catching 47 balls - this is important to note in PPR leagues and gives him some extra value in that league format.

Fred Jackson (ML's backup) is definitely someone you need to draft if selecting ML, the Bills rewarded Jackson with a contract extension this offseason which shows that the organization does have faith in the undrafted backup after he has filled in for ML when he was injured last year and the year before; Jackson averaged ten touches per game last season and had 37 receptions.

With all of these factors taken into consideration predicting ML's production next season is going to be tricky, but if he falls low enough in the draft you can get a RB who can produce at a cheap price.

My prediction

825 Rush Yards

200 Rec. Yards

30 Catches.

6 TDs
I dunno I think he's a relatively easy guy to get a handle on (at least much easier than his teammates). High floor, low ceiling. He's Marion Barber with a worse QB/OL. The OL issues are a concern for me as a Bills fan but I think are being exaggerated here for ML fantasy purposes. Moving Walker to LT and throwing a couple rookies in at Guard could definitely get Trent killed, but run-blocking requires less experience and continuity since every OLman has done it since pop-warner; and the interior guys they had before sucked anyway.

 
I dunno I think he's a relatively easy guy to get a handle on (at least much easier than his teammates). High floor, low ceiling. He's Marion Barber with a worse QB/OL.
I agree. I think you are looking at a pretty middle of the road #2 RB. I suppose there is some upside, if the OL clicks, and the O opens up, but he's going to get his 75 yards and an occasional TD or two, especially considering the conservative play calling. He'll get touches.
 

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